Inflation Rate Research Articles

Comparative Study of Monte Carlo Simulation and the Deterministic Model to Analyze Thermal Insulation Costs

The main purpose of this paper is to implement a simulation model in @RISKTM and study the impact of incorporating random variables, such as the degree days in a traditional deterministic model, for calculating the optimum thickness of thermal insulation in walls. Currently, green buildings have become important because of the increasing worldwide interest in the reduction of environmental pollution. One method of saving energy is to use thermal insulation. The optimum thickness of these insulators has traditionally been calculated using deterministic models. With the information generated from real data using the degree days required in a certain zone in Palestine during winter, random samples of the degree days required annually in this town were generated for periods of 10, 20, 50, and 70 years. The results showed that the probability of exceeding the net present value of the cost calculated using deterministic analysis ranges from 0% to 100%, without regard to the inflation rate. The results also show that, for design lifetimes greater than 40 years, the risk of overspending is lower if the building lasts longer than the period for which it was designed. Moreover, this risk is transferred to whomever will pay the operating costs of heating the building. The contribution of this research is twofold: (a) a stochastic approach is incorporated into the traditional models that determine the optimum thickness of thermal insulation used in buildings, by introducing the variability of the degree days required in a given region; (b) a measure of the economic risk incurred by building heating is established as a function of the years of use for which the building is designed and the number of years it is actually used.

THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE ON GOLD MARKETS

Purpose – The study examines global Gold market performance and correlations between COVID-19, the Russian invasion, inflation, investors’ fear, asymmetric shocks, and the VIX (volatility index) impact on volatility. Research Methodology – This research uses an econometric approach to analyse the impact of COVID-19 and the Russian invasion on Gold market performance – specifically the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) – GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) Model and the Threshold-Asymmetric ARCH Model. Findings – The study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have significantly impacted Gold market dynamics. Inflation significantly impacts volatility, emphasising the need for monitoring inflation rates. Investor fear increases demand during uncertainty periods, while negative shocks have a higher asymmetric effect. The VIX positively affects Gold market volatility, suggesting a perceived safe-haven status during increased volatility. Research Limitations – Gaps in the data related to COVID-19 cases, geopolitical events, and Gold market performance could potentially introduce inaccuracies, biases or limitations to the analysis. Practical Implications – The study’s findings have practical implications for investors, analysts, and policymakers involved in the financial investment of Gold markets. Originality/Value – This study provides new insights into the relationships between inflation, investor fear, asymmetric shocks, and the impact of the VIX on Gold market dynamics during economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Monetary incentives to improve tax compliance: A Brazilian case study

AbstractMotivationTo enhance tax education and increase citizen participation in combatting tax evasion, monetary incentives may be used. In December (2021), the state government of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil launched the Receita Certa project. It aims to encourage new taxpayer habits, by refunding part of the tax collected by retailers on consumption back to citizens, contingent on its performance exceeding inflation rates. Taxpayers add their tax identification to receipts and request redemption every three months.PurposeWe analyse the impact of the Receita Certa project on the behaviour of consumers as taxpayers.MethodsWe evaluate the impacts of Receita Certa using difference‐in‐differences. The response variables are the monthly number and value of electronic receipts issued to beneficiaries. The treatment group consists of citizens eligible for the refund in its introduction month, while the remainder constitute the control group. The database includes receipts issued to 3.4 million taxpayers who added their tax identification to the receipt — spanning 11 months before and 18 months after the initiative, began resulting in 46.7 million records.FindingsThe Receita Certa proved ineffective, as it led to fewer tax documents issued. Distributing resources widely to many users does not seem the best solution, both in cost and results. Distribution goes first and foremost to people on higher incomes since they got larger prizes: the smaller prizes of people on lower incomes were often not claimed. The programme made tax more regressive. The programme was also costly.Policy implicationsStates that have a large tax gap need to improve their control systems. Initiatives like the Receita Certa that return resources widely to taxpayers to reduce tax evasion are widespread. Given the results shown, Receita Certa needs rethinking.

Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence from the Vietnam Economy

The paper analyzes the interaction of economic growth and inflation rate on accounting for both sources of capital investment and global shocks. The analysis method is a time-varying coefficient Bayesian vector autoregression (TVC-BSVAR) model applied in a quarterly data sample of the Vietnam economy over Q2/2001–Q4/2022. The global factors, including the world economic growth and the inflation rate, are the most important drivers of domestic growth and inflation rate. A greater world growth rate raises the domestic growth rate while a higher world inflation rate increases the domestic inflation rate. If the world economy falls into stagflation with declining growth and a rising inflation rate, Vietnam’s economic growth reduces while the inflation surges. The monetary and fiscal policy can be employed to recover domestic economic growth but with an associated surge in the domestic inflation rate.

Inflasi dalam IPO: Menelusuri Jejak Underpricing

The study explores whether in 2021 to 2022, the inflation rate has an influence on underpricing. The hypothesis testing approach process begins by passing the classical assumption test and linear regression analysis. Secondary data sources were obtained through the Indonesia Stock Exchange with a total population of 112, and 77 samples were selected based on specific criteria for use in the study. The results of the study reveal that from 2021 to 2022 inflation has an influence on underpricing. It is suspected that the inflation rate is used by investors as one of the decision indicators in investing in IPO shares in the period 2021 to 2022 which has an impact on the level of underpricing, in line with this because inflation can also be a driver or obstacle for economic growth, price stability, and especially in terms of investment decisions. This study is expected to provide a real contribution in the form of empirical data that is useful for issuers who list their shares and for future researchers and become a source of further recommendations.

Methodological provision of analysis of the efficiency of investment activities of enterprises

The paper is devoted to the disclosure of the main provisions of methodological support for the analysis of the investment activity of enterprises and practical recommendations on the use of methods for evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of investment projects for decision-making. Making investment decisions is based on the use of various formalized and informal methods and models, taking into account the following factors: changes in the value of money over time; alternative value of resources; cash flows generated by the project; uncertainty and risk; inflation, price changes and currency exchange rate fluctuations; investment goals and investor psychology; possible changes in project parameters; synergies between investment projects of the enterprise. When forming the list of monitoring indicators, those aspects of the business entity's investment activity that are most important for owners, investors and management organizers were highlighted. It is proposed to form a system of performance indicators of the enterprise's investment activity in accordance with the sphere of investment: production, marketing, technology, organization. The principles of investment activity analysis and recommendations on the procedures for analyzing the effectiveness of project implementation have been formed, the choice of which depends on the management goals aimed at achieving a stable cash flow and ensuring the financial stability of the enterprise. The essential characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the existing approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects are revealed. A system of indicators and criteria for the analysis of the effectiveness of investment activities of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of investments depending on the sphere of investment of funds: production, marketing, technology, organization are proposed. Recommendations for choosing a specific method for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects in the context of achieving the priority goal - maximizing project profitability, risk acceptability and investors' interests are substantiated.

Analysis of Macroeconomi Factor Effect on the Stock Price Index in Jakarta Islamic Index

The country’s economy slowdown causes the affected exchange rate or exchange rate to weaken, and Bank Indonesia’s interest rate policy at the time of the economic downturn decreases, it has an impact on the stock index in the JII. This research aims to determine the influence of macroeconomics on the IHS in JII. The method used is quantitative research, with an analysis model using the VAR technique. The data used is secondary data of a time series. The research results show that the influence of the ISSI and BI rate responded positively, while inflation responded positively. The exchange rate variable responded negatively to JII shocks until the end of the period. The results of the FEVD test show that the largest contribution was JII, inflation, ISSI, and BI rate, and the smallest contribution to JII was the exchange rate. Implication and recommendation this research are Bank Indonesia as the institution responsible for controlling inflation, can maintain inflation stability, lower the exchange rate against the dollar and maintain interest rate stability.

Value Engineering Building Structure Civil Servent Paspampres PUPR Precast with Lead Rubber Bearing Potential Fault Zone

Life cycle cost (LCC) analysis is a method that can be used to control initial costs and future costs in investing in a project where in this case the use of Lead Rubber Bearing (LRB) technology. The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic value of a building by taking into account the cost of operating the building during the life cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a study on life cycle cost analysis to find out what costs are contained in the ASN Paspampres, IKN Flat Construction Project and to be able to find out how much costs are incurred starting from the design stage to the age of the building plan that has been determined. The data used are Plan Drawings, Cost Budget Plans (RAB) from the project and literature studies that support the research. The estimated cost of replacement and repair in the future is calculated on present value, with an economic life of building construction for 50 years with a simulation of an earthquake occurring only 1 time, assuming 6% interest, assuming an inflation rate of 2.61%, an increase in the price of construction materials and Lead Rubber Bearing (LRB) per year of 0.99%. Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis based on 4 system categories is that conventional LCC is greater than precast LCC, conventional LCC + LRB and precast LCC + LRB. Based on the value of Conventional LCC + LRB and Precast LCC + LRB is still more efficient than Conventional LCC and precast LCC, if the earthquake event is below the 12th year for Conventional LCC + LRB and the earthquake event is below 38 years for precast LCC + LRB. The deviation value between conventional LCC + LRB decreases over time until it approaches zero deviation (0) near the 12th year and after that year (12th) the deviation becomes negative. This means that after the 12th year Conventional LCC + LRB is already inefficient compared to Conventional LCC. The deviation value between Precast LCC + LRB decreases over time until it approaches zero deviation (0) near the 38th year and after that year (38th) the deviation becomes negative. This means that after the 38th year Precast LCC + LRB is no longer efficient compared to Conventional LCC.

Forecasting and Analyzing Predictors of Inflation Rate: Using Machine Learning Approach

Forecasting and Analyzing Predictors of Inflation Rate: Using Machine Learning Approach

The Effect of Inflation Rate and Gold Price on Gold Pawn Financing (Rahn) at PT Bank BSI Indonesia

Gold pawn financing can be interpreted as pawning or surrendering physical authority over property/valuables from customers to banks to be managed with the ar-rahn principle, namely as collateral for loans/debts given to customers/borrowers. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inflation rate and gold price on the distribution of Rahn financing at PT Bank Syariah Indonesia. The data for this research comes from the official website of Bank Indonesia, PT Antam Indonesia and PT Bank Syariah Indonesia. The data taken is a monthly report. Hypothesis testing using multiple linear regression analysis and data processing tools with the SPSS 21 application. The results of data analysis show that partially the inflation rate does not have a significant effect on the distribution of Rahn Financing of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia with a t value of -2.03 and a significant value of 0.051, and gold price fluctuations affect the distribution of Rahn Financing of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia with a t value of 7.811 and a significant value of 0.000. Simultaneously the inflation rate and gold price affect the distribution of Rahn Financing of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia with an F value of 30.81 and a significance of 0.000 and can be seen from the regression coefficient test (R2) the inflation rate and gold price fluctuations affect the distribution of Rahn Financing of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia by 64.4% and the remaining 35.6% is influenced by other factors outside the research model.

Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Performance of Mutual Funds: Evidence from Bangladesh Financial Market

Using multiple regression analysis in this research paper, this is examined that these macroeconomic variables (Money Supply-M2, Inflation Rates and Exchange Rates) have significant relationships with the performance of mutual funds (represented by monthly return based on NAV) in Bangladesh. According to this project paper, money supply M2 has negative relationship with the performance of mutual funds in the financial market of Bangladesh. Because, higher level of money supply in the market weaken the monetary value of taka which makes the market more vulnerable. And this vulnerable market leads a negative impact on the whole financial market as well as mutual fund industry. Interest rates have positive relationship with the performance of mutual funds in the financial market of Bangladesh because higher level of interest rate increases the tendency of savings in the ultimate consumers and they try to consume less and save more. This savings is going to be invested in the capital market as well as in mutual fund industry which leads the market to a better position for the fund managers. Inflation rates have negative relationship with the performance of mutual funds in the financial market of Bangladesh as the higher level of inflation make the price of commodities higher and the monetary price of the taka lower. This tendency of making the less value of money, most of the investors want to withdraw their investment from the market which leads a downturn in the financial market as well as in the mutual fund industry. At the end, exchange rates have positive relationship with the performance of mutual funds as the higher level of exchange rate makes the Bangladeshi taka more powerful in the international market.

Determinants of financial distress: evidence from insurance companies in Ethiopia

The issue of financial distress has received much attention of scholars because it harms firm financial and operational systems which could lead to insolvency. The objective of this study is to examine the determinants of financial distress in Ethiopian insurance companies. A panel dataset was obtained from 11 insurance companies which range from 2010 to 2021. The study used the “Altman’s Z”-score model as a measure for financial distress. The pooled OLS regression results revealed that profitability (ROA), liquidity levels, insurers’ size, earnings growth, diversification have negative and significant effect on financial distress. Moreover, inflation rate, claims ratio, leverage, and asset tangibility have positive significant impact on financial distress. The study will have implications for different stakeholders, such as managers, policy makers, shareholders, etc., in that firm-specific and macro-economic factors are essential for managing the status of financial distress.

Wage – price dynamics and financial market in a disequilibrium macro model: A Keynes – Kaldor – Minsky modeling of recession and inflation using VECM

This paper studies wage-price dynamics in the context of a disequilibrium macro model where there are two Phillips curves (PC's), a wage PC and price PC. We adapt this framework but introduce a Kaldorian delay effect in wage dynamics whereby output and sales predate wage dynamics. Along Keynesian lines aggregate demand drives output, but output is also impacted from the supply side, through Minsky - Kindleberger financial conditions, enhancing inflation through bottlenecks and supply constraints. Worsening financial conditions, resulting from central banks raising interest rates to counteract inflation, may actually accelerate the inflation rate through affecting the supply side. This occurs when there are financially generated bottlenecks and external non-stationary variables, such as fossil energy and food costs, acting as exogenous drivers of the inflation rate. These features are first studied in a disequilibrium intertemporal dynamic macroeconomic model but then empirically explored in a mixed Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with a mix of stationary and non-stationary variables. Nonlinearities in the dynamics and regime switching are shown to be essential in disequilibrium macrodynamics, here first studied analytically and then econometrically, exploring the transitory and persistent effects of shocks.

Asymmetric effects of oil prices on inflation in Côte d’Ivoire

This study examines the asymmetric effects of both international and local oil prices on the inflation rate in Côte d’Ivoire over the period 2005–2022. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to account for the asymmetric effects and analyse both long run and short run effects of oil prices on inflation. The results indicate that in the long run, an increase in international and local oil prices results in an increase in inflation rate, with higher effect for local oil prices. In addition, long run effects of a negative oil price variation on inflation have a greater magnitude than that of a positive one. The effects on inflation of Brent and diesel are statistically symmetrical. It is also found that the inflationary effects of diesel prices are greater than those of other petroleum products. Policy recommendations are provided based on the empirical results of the paper.

Exploring the Impact of Economic Indicators on Foreign Direct Investment: Case of Côte D'ivoire

This paper examines the impact of economic indicators on foreign direct investment in Côte d'Ivoire, using data from 1970 to 2022 sourced from the World Bank database. The independent variables examined include Gross Domestic Product, inflation rate, exchange rate, trade openness, and government debt, while FDI serves as the dependent variable. Through rigorous statistical analysis, including Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, Ordinary Least Squares analysis, Johansen cointegration analysis, and Granger causality tests, the results showed that GDP and inflation rate exhibit statistically significant positive effect on FDI, suggesting that economic growth and higher inflation rates may attract foreign investment. However, variables such as exchange rate, trade openness, and government debt do not show significant impacts on FDI. The study underscores the nuanced nature of FDI determinants in Côte d'Ivoire, emphasizing the need for tailored policy interventions to foster sustained economic growth and attract foreign investment. These outcomes help to a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics shaping FDI inflows in the region, providing valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders alike

On the Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Investor Participation in the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya

The participation of foreign investors in a country's securities market plays a crucial role in the growth of any country. Kenya has continued to experience volatility of foreign investor flows leading to instability in the financial market. The study aimed to identify the macroeconomic determinants, which have a significant effect on foreign investor participation in Kenya. Secondary monthly data for the period January 2020 to December 2023 was extracted from the Central Bank of Kenya, Capital Markets Authority, and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The multiple regression model with the assistance of SPSS software was employed to analyze data. Findings revealed that the inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate had a negative and statistically significant effect on the participation of foreign investors as illustrated by P-values of 0.001, 0.032, and 0.05 respectively, which are less than 0.05. The results inferred that the inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate affect the participation of foreign investors at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Interest rate as measured by the 365-day Treasury bill rate had a positive and statistically insignificant effect on the participation of foreign investors as presented by a P-value of 0.107. The results implied that changes in Treasury bill rates do not affect the participation of foreign investors at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The notable fluctuations in currency rates and their volatility, along with the impact of inflation on foreign portfolio inflows, underscore the crucial role played by monetary policy. This should be accomplished by stabilizing the value of the Kenyan shilling. Maintaining the stability of the value of the shilling is crucial to boosting the participation of foreign investors.

CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF MONEY AND INFLATION IN THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM THE PERIOD 1960 TO 2020

<p>This work aimed to investigate the causal relationship between money and inflation (proxy by CPI) in the Philippines using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis and the Granger Causality Test. The results showed that both series are stationary in levels; hence, VAR in levels was utilized. The results of VAR(2) show a link between the two variables. The current inflation rate in the Philippines is affected by a one-year lag in money supply. The Granger causality test revealed the unidirectional connection between inflation and money. Furthermore, past levels of price stability can be used to forecast monetary stability in the Philippines. Technically, CPI Granger causes M2.</p><p><strong> </strong></p><p><strong>JEL</strong>: E31, E52, C32, C53, C58</p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0758/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Identification of Underpricing FactorsInitial Public Offering Manufacturing Sector on The Indonesia Stock Exchange

Purpose – This study aims to prove and analyze the effect of Return On Assets (ROA), Inflation Rate, Earning Per Share (EPS) and Debt to Asset Ratio (DAR) on Underpricing of shares in manufacturing companies during the initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2017-2021 years.
 Methodology/approach – This research design is quantitative with an associative approach. The population in this study were all manufacturing companies that experienced stock underpricing in 2017 – 2021, while the samples used in this study were 53 manufacturing companies that met certain criteria in the study period. The sampling technique used purposive sampling method. The data analysis used is multiple linear regression analysis.
 Findings – The results of this study indicate that Earning Per Share (EPS) has a significant negative effect on underpricing and the Inflation Rate has a significant positive effect on underpricing, while Return On Assets (ROA) and Debt to Asset Ratio (DAR) have no effect on underpricing.
 Novelty/value – The high or low value of Return on Assets and debt to asset ratio does not significantly affect stock underpricing during the initial public offering. The value of earnings per share and inflation greatly affects the underpricing of shares in manufacturing companies during the initial public offering

Does Tourism Development Influence the Economic Growth in Pakistan? Evidence from ARDL and Causality Approach

This study analyzes the influence of tourism development on economic growth (GDP) in the case of Pakistan's economy using the time series data covering the spanning from 1995-2022. In order to unveil reliable and robust results, a more appropriate time-series approach was applied for the current article. Time series unit root tests infer that all the variables have unit root problems at levels I(0), however, after taking the first difference I(1), all series turn into following the stationary process. Furthermore, (ARDL) bound test reveals that a long-term cointegration prevails among all analyzed variables. The Granger causality test is also utilized to check the causal relationship among the series. The long-run elasticity estimates examine a statistically significant and positive link between the sect tourism sector GDP growth in the case of Pakistan. Furthermore, political instability and inflation rate have an inverse influence on GDP growth, whereas, capital investment has a positively significant influence on GDP growth. In addition, it is concluded that tourism sector development helps to move upward shift in the economy of Pakistan by generating more profits for the country. Finally, it is suggested that goverment should have to focus on investing in the tourism sector and provide better facilities for tourists.

Investment in Malaysian Stock Market and the Inflation Rate

The increasing concern on the rising inflation rate in Malaysia had motivated the need for the study on the investment return for the Malaysian stock market to compare against the inflation rate in Malaysia. The study had reflected towards the literature review to identify the potential pattern for the study creating the expectations to observe the positive correlation between the inflation rate and the portfolio return of the stock investment as well as the higher KLSE market index growth rate over the inflation rate in the country. With this, the resign design through the quantitative method had been introduced with reference to the application of the correlation analysis and regression analysis to test for the hypothesis for the study. In addition, the comparative analysis will be used as part of the quantitative analysis to understand the potential difference in the inflation rate against the KLSE market index growth rate. The outcome for the quantitative findings had concluded that there is very weak negative correlation being observed between the two variables, but the regression analysis failed to show any significant in the relationship between the two variables disagreeing with the previous studies. On the other hand, the KLSE market index growth had been significantly higher than the inflation rate in Malaysia suggesting that the stock investment in Malaysia could be beneficial for the investors to beat the inflation rate in Malaysia. With this, the objective of the study is being achieved with the suggestion towards the potential future research study being proposed for the future researchers.