Inflation Rate Research Articles

Optimizing treasury management in a high-inflation environment: A strategic framework for U.S. Financial Institutions

There has been a considerable innovative rise in the United States' financial institutions achievable through numerous implementations including treasury management optimization irrespective of the high inflation rate. Treasury management tends to be an important technique viable in managing risks in this world of increasing cyberattacks on financial institutions. To effectively counter this threat, financial institutions must implement a comprehensive risk management technique, among which is the Repo risk management technique. This article, through an extensive literature review, aims to analyze possible means of improving risk management in US financial institutions during high inflation through treasury management optimization strategies. The roles of treasury management were effectively analyzed, and the effects of high inflation in optimizing cash flows through liquidity risk management.

Effect of capital market on economic growth: An analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

The limits testing method known as ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) examines Nigerian capital market improvement and monetary development. Relevant indicators about the capital market are taken into account during analysis while considering influencing factors as well. This study aims to explore the relationship between the capital market and financial development in Nigeria. The study’s theoretical framework, which is based on the ARDL framework, includes both short- and long-term dynamics. The data used in this analysis was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the World Bank database, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). In this study, the Nigerian All-Share Index, foreign direct investment, currency exchange rates, and inflation rates are the free factors, while the increase in GDP is the dependent factor. Through cointegration analysis using the ARDL framework, it was discovered that in Nigeria there’s a lengthy equilibrium correlation between economic expansion and financial development. The coefficients determined allow for a deeper understanding of how capital market factors affect economic growth over time. Furthermore, utilizing an error correction model derived from the ARDL analysis offers insight into both brief dynamics and modified speed toward reaching a lasting state of balance. By utilizing the ARDL approach, this study adds to the continuing discourse surrounding how capital markets impact growth in Nigeria. Its empirical evidence provides valuable knowledge for policymakers and stakeholders looking to utilize capital markets effectively toward achieving long-lasting economic development within the country.

An Exploratory Study on the Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Stock Market Performance among 6-ASEAN Countries

The stock market's performance has been impacted by the global economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the impact of various factors on stock market performance, with a focus on the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has experienced positive growth, driven by low interest rates, ample liquidity, and sustained investor optimism, despite concerns over rising inflation and interest rates. This research aims to analyze stock market performance across six ASEAN countries, using a range of data sources, including historical stock prices, financial reports, and macroeconomic indicators. The findings reveal that the real exchange rate exerts the most significant influence on stock market performance. The insights from this study provide valuable information for investors, policymakers, and government bodies, aiding in strategic decision-making and investment planning in these markets.

6.X.2. Food Insecurity in Europe: Voices from across Europe

Abstract Food insecurity (FI), “lack of regular access to enough safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life”, is a global public health issue. The United Nations (UN) have identified achieving food security as a key Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), where all people should “have access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food all year round.” However, disasters related to the consequences of changing climates, pandemics, wars, displacement of populations, high inflation rates, changes in social protection systems, and food system changes challenge the achievement of this SDG. FI persists even in high-income countries including Europe. This workshop session will foster a knowledge, research and experience exchange on the situation of individuals / different population groups in the context of FI in different European countries. Starting with a contribution from Austria, the term food poverty is introduced and considered from a food system perspective / from an equity perspective. The second contribution illuminates the relationships between FI, shopping behaviours and social support among food bank users in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic. The final third contribution comes from the Netherlands and explores the needs and perceptions regarding healthy eating among people at risk of FI. In all three studies, standardized measurement tools were applied to measure FI but recruiting methods and data collection methods varied considerably between and within the studies. The session enhances the knowledge on FI in Europe from different perspectives. Key messages • Food insecurity does exist in Europe: there is a need for regular, consistent monitoring across European countries. • Food insecurity involves more than just access to food; it also considers nutritious and climate-friendly options, addressing the link between climate, health, and equity.

Macroeconomic Forces Affecting Islamic Performance Indices

This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic factors that impact the performance of Malaysia's Islamic stock market. This study looks at six independent variables that affect the performance of the Islamic stock market in Malaysia: the world oil price, inflation rate, Islamic interbank rate, money supply (M2), industrial activity index, inflation rate, Islamic interbank rate, exchange rate, and world oil price. The Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Bursa Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Eikon Thomson Reuters were among the secondary data sources used in this study's quantitative data gathering methodology. The research was carried out over four years (2019–2023) using monthly data. A theoretical model was created to investigate the suggested relationship after it was analyzed using the E-views software. The success of the Islamic stock market was found to be significantly correlated with the inflation rate, money supply, Islamic interbank rate, and exchange rate. These determinants are exerting a direct influence on the Islamic stock market in Malaysia, particularly in its macroeconomic aspects. The present study aims to enhance comprehension regarding the possible effects of different elements on how well the Islamic stock market performs. Different results could come from more research into the various elements affecting the Islamic stock market's performance.

Determinants of Inflation Rate Fluctuations in Five ASEAN Nations

This paper examines the key relationships between independent variables and inflation fluctuations in the ASEAN-5 countries, which include Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. Using annual data from 2001 to 2020, a static panel data regression model is employed. The empirical results reveal that at least two independent variables significantly impact inflation rates in these five ASEAN nations. Specifically, the unemployment rate has a significant negative correlation with inflation fluctuations, while economic growth shows a significant positive correlation. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into how exchange rate determinants influence inflation fluctuations, highlighting the importance of balanced policies to address the interactions between unemployment, economic growth, and inflation.

Macroeconomics Factors Affecting Net Exports of Oil Palm Industry in Malaysia

This quantitative study investigates the impact of oil palm production, oil palm pricing, inflation, and GDP growth rate on the net exports of Malaysia's oil palm industry. This research is aimed at analyzing how the net export of oil palm relates to certain macroeconomic variables. This study has employed multiple regression analysis through Ordinary Least Squares for 26 years of time series data from 1996 to 2020 in Malaysia. The findings from this study improve our understanding of the major factors contributing to net exports in the oil palm industry. Palm oil production, price, as well as GDP growth, drive net export of palm oil in Malaysia found during this research. An increase in production leads to the reduced amount of palm oil exported, all other things remaining constant. Conversely, inflation and GDP growth are major drivers behind the increased net export of palm oil.

A Study of Long-Run Equilibrium Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment and Its Key Determinants in Malaysia

This study investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and its key determinants in Malaysia. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on annual data between 1971 and 2021. The key findings confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI and the selected macroeconomic variables as a group. However, the individual impact of gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate, and trade openness on FDI is not statistically significant when analyzed separately. Specifically, the long-run results suggest that the determinants do not have significant effects on FDI. Meanwhile, the short-run relationship between FDI and its determinants in Malaysia reveals a complex interplay of factors. Inflation and exchange rates play significant roles, with inflation generally encouraging FDI and exchange rate volatility creating mixed effects. Trade openness on the other hand shows some short-run significance but it is not consistently impactful. The error correction (ECM) model also confirms the existence of a long-run relationship. It highlights that while short-term fluctuations can occur, FDI tends to move towards a long-term equilibrium influenced by a relatively moderate speed of adjustment. The key conclusion implies that FDI is influenced by the combined effect of these variables in the longer term, but the individual contribution of each variable is not strong enough to stand out statistically. This research contributes to the understanding of FDI dynamics in Malaysia by providing insights, thereby informing policymakers and investors about effective strategies to attract and leverage FDI for sustainable development.

Reflections of Economic Shocks and Price of Crude Oil on Gold Price Volatility within Asian Nations

The focus of this study is to examine the effects of economic shocks along with the crude oil price on gold prices in Asian countries. This study utilizes a regression analysis to measure the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators, crude oil price, and gold price in six selected nations from 1990 until 2022. The validity of the data was diagnostically checked by performing a VIF procedure, autocorrelation test, and normality test on residual, and data were analyzed via EViews software. The analysis showed mixed findings, however, a major variable that positively affects the fluctuation of the gold price is “the crude oil price” and it reflects global economic stability in the six countries. A sudden rise in crude oil prices might trigger conflicts in oil-exporting countries and limit access to material sources. This situation may force investors to move their funds into a safe-haven commodity like gold. The fluctuations in crude oil prices are not only a response to current market conditions but also alarming a lot more fundamental problems in an economy, which include approaching economic recessions, currency devaluation and a major financial crisis. For practical implications, this study suggests that policymakers pay extra attention to this commodity besides other economic indicators like inflation, interest and currency rates, and a GDP rate to ensure a sustainable economic condition. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first that examines the economic shocks along with crude oil prices pre-and-post COVID-19 pandemic focusing on a few Asian countries.

Will central bank transparency reduce inflation in emerging economies?

ABSTRACT This paper gauges the association between central bank transparency (CT) and the inflation rate in 19 emerging countries. The estimations are conducted on an unbalanced panel dataset from 1992 to 2021 using the feasible GLS method. The results show that greater overall CT lowers inflation. The same conclusion applied to all subcomponents of CT, except for political transparency. The robustness analyses mostly confirm the findings. These results suggest that a central bank could remain secretive in the policy weightage between inflation and output stabilization or monetary policy motives to maintain low inflation while being more transparent on other transparency components.

An Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing on Inflation in China

Abstract: The relationship between demographic change and economic development is one of the most recent and important research topics. Researchers have found that aging will have a certain impact on inflation, but there is still a research gap and controversy on China's inflation problem. Therefore, this paper collects data on the aging process of China's population and inflation rate between 2004 and 2023 and applies graphical analysis and literature analysis to study the data to try to find a cleaner relationship. Through the research, it can be concluded that China's changing population structure has a relatively inhibitory effect on inflation and a negative effect on economic development. The reason may be that the decline in the labor force caused by population aging has a greater impact on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply. Overall, to reduce the impact of the deepening process of population aging, postponing the retirement age and developing the elderly care industry can be an effective way to boost aggregate supply growth to control the increased inflation rate.

Understanding Deflationary Trends in China: Internal and External Factors Analysis

This paper investigates the recent deflationary trend observed in China, exploring its underlying causes from both internal and external perspectives. Since the 1970s, China has undergone significant economic reforms, embraced market principles and experienced a substantial expansion in its money supply. Despite expectations of inflation due to the substantial money supply relative to GDP, China has experienced a period of low or negative inflation rates since April 2023. This study examines potential factors contributing to this deflationary period, including exchange rate fluctuations, monetary policy dynamics, economic structural shifts, and external shocks. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the development of transmission routes of monetary policy and possible impacts on the responsiveness of price level to money supply, particularly within the context of China's evolving financial system. Additionally, it analyses shifts in the key drivers of the Chinese economyinvestment, net exports, and consumptionand their role in exacerbating deflationary pressures. The study extends its analysis to February 2024, observing potential signs of a transition away from deflation. It emphasizes the risks associated with deflation and the Chinese government's efforts to balance inflation targets with economic stability and employment objectives, particularly in light of challenges in the real estate sector.

Dynamic web-based GIS tool for pre-feasibility evaluation of renewable energy projects

The high energy consumption and the large amount of emissions associated with roads life cycle makes it necessary for the administrations involved to invest in the implementation of renewable energy technologies on adjacent lands so that the net balance between CO2 emitted and CO2 saved is zero, thus helping to decarbonize the transport networks. To facilitate the first step in the long process leading up to the construction of wind and solar farms, a user-friendly tool is here presented that allows an early-stage evaluation of renewable energy projects. The ENROAD web-based GIS tool, through a functional, modern, intuitive, and ergonomic graphical user interface aimed at non-specialized users, optimizes the use of photovoltaic and wind technologies based on shading and wake losses, respectively, taking into account the solar radiation and wind conditions of the location and the geometry of the area selected by the user. In addition, the tool provides a thorough financial analysis, incorporating the effects of user-defined long-term interest rates, inflation rates, loan costs and efficiency losses on the Levelized Cost of Energy as well as traditional financial metrics, enabling users to conduct insightful if-then simulations. While this tool cannot have the precision of the in-depth study needed for the design of complex renewable energy facilities, it can facilitate the decision making by the administrations. Finally, a case study and a validation section have been included to demonstrate the technical and financial evaluation provided by ENROAD and ensure that the results provided are reasonable and accurate enough.

Discrimination and health outcomes in England's black communities amid the cost-of-living crisis: evaluating the role of inflation and Bank Rates

ABSTRACT This study utilised longitudinal data from Black History Month events in London from 2021 to 2023. Novel findings revealed that increased inflation and Bank Rates, related to the cost-of-living crisis, were associated with greater discrimination and deteriorations in both general and mental health for Black individuals. Moreover, it was found that during the cost-of-living crisis period, i.e. 2022–2023, discrimination was more adversely related to general and mental health deterioration compared to the period before the cost-of-living crisis, i.e. 2021. In addition, women, non-native individuals, non-heterosexual individuals, the unemployed, economically inactive individuals, those with lower educational attainment, and older individuals experienced higher levels of discrimination and reduced general and mental health compared to reference groups. The findings of the study contribute to the literature by demonstrating the intertwined associations of macroeconomic deteriorations and discrimination with the health of the Black community, and its subgroup differences, providing a basis for targeted policies.

Depressive symptoms and associated socioeconomic and clinic factors: Three different years data from Türkiye.

Depression is one of the main diseases that cause disability. It is more common in various sociodemographic situations. This study investigated the risk factors associated with depressive symptoms and changes over the years based on data from a sample from the Republic of Türkiye. It was also intended to compare depressive symptoms and inflation rates by years. Data for 2016, 2019 and 2022 from the Turkish Health Survey performed by the Turkish Statistical Institute were used in the study. Data for age, sex, marital status, education level, employment status, accompanying chronic health problems, restrictions in daily activities associated with health problems and problems accessing psychological treatment due to difficulty in paying were evaluated in terms of depressive symptoms. Higher depressive symptoms were determined in women, the widowed and divorced, individuals with a low level of education, the unemployed, individuals with chronic health problems, those with restrictions in daily activities associated with chronic health problems and those with problems accessing psychological treatment due to difficulty in paying. Although inflation rates increased over the years, the severity of depressive symptoms decreased. A moderate positive correlation was observed between depressive symptoms and basic activities of daily living. Developing policies aimed at groups with high depressive symptoms may be important in combating depression.

Bank-specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Banks Profitability in Kenya

This study focuses and examines the impact of bank-specific factors and macroeconomic determinants on the financial performance of commercial banks listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) during the period spanning from 2011 to 2020. The research is anchored on transaction cost economic theory with financial panel data methodology. In the pursuit of study objective, the study employed pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation method combined with fixed effect model to account for individual-specific characteristics that may not be directly observable but are likely to impact the dependent variable. The research findings reveal that bank assets, bank capital and debt ratio have a positive impact on bank profitability while bank concentration has a negative effect. Notably, inflation rate, lending rate and tax rate were insignificant in relation to rate of return on equity among the selected banks in NSE. The study recommends that banks should prioritize efficient capital allocation and diversify their business lines and offerings. Therefore, banks should give thought to the implementation of strategic asset management as a means to optimize their asset allocation, as it can contribute to increased profitability through diversification and efficient asset utilization.

Static and Dynamic Modeling of Non-Performing Loan Determinants in the Eurozone

The issue of non-performing loans (NPLs) in a bank’s portfolio is important for a bank’s stability and sustainability. Their increased presence indicates a potential worsening of the economy and a lower quality of the bank’s assets. We estimated determinants of non-performing loans in the Eurozone for quarterly data 2015–2020. The results confirmed spatial spillover effects within Eurozone countries, which means that when a shock happens in one country in the Eurozone, it will also affect the other economies of the Eurozone area. Based on the Hausman test, a fixed-effects model was chosen as appropriate and showed that bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants significantly affect NPLs in these economies. In relation to previous studies that dealt with this issue, a co-integration analysis was introduced. A significant impact of return on assets, return on equity, and the loan-to-deposit ratio, as well as the gross domestic product, inflation, and exchange rate on NPLs in the short run and long run, was confirmed using a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Bank management should customize credit policy based on both internal and external conditions to improve their performance, focusing on enhancing profitability and maintaining a lower loan-to-deposit ratio to reduce NPLs. The research suggests that a higher gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is associated with fewer NPLs, while inflation uncertainty and a volatile exchange rate can increase NPLs, highlighting the importance of adjusting strategies to the macroeconomic landscape.

Pengaruh Faktor-Faktor Ekonomi Makro terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Periode 2010-2019

This study aims to determine and analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation Rate, SBI Interest Rate, Rupiah / US Dollar exchange rate on the JII (Jakarta Islamic Index) Stock Price Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2010-2019. This study uses an associative quantitative approach which is intended to examine the relationship and influence between macroeconomic factors variables on the JII stock price index variable. Meanwhile, the analysis method used is multiple linear regression. The results of this study indicate that only the rupiah/US dollar exchange rate has a significant negative effect on the JII stock price index. While macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product, Inflation Rate, SBI Interest Rate have no significant effect on the JII stock price index.

Factors Influencing Inflation: Insights from the Nepalese Economy

Inflation is a persistent issue in developing nations such as Nepal, resulting in serious economic and social consequences. This article examines the macroeconomic determinants of inflation in Nepal, considering the variables as government expenditure, exchange rate remittances, real GDP, and the consumer price index of India. Using the time series data from 1975 to 2023. It employs the Engel-Granger two-step cointegration test to examine the short- and long-term causal connections between Nepal's consumer price index (inflation) and all of these variables. The augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test confirms that the variables are stationary at first difference, suggesting they possess an integrated order of I. The Engel-Granger test established that there is co-integration among the variables. Additionally, the error correction term (ECT) was found to be statistically significant, with a negative coefficient. The causal association between the selected dependent and explanatory variables in Nepal is both significant and persistent. The empirical findings suggest that India's inflation highly affects inflation in Nepal. Furthermore, the enduring effects of broad money supply and government expenditure are also substantial factors. The results indicate an inverse relationship between inflation and real GDP in Nepal, whereas remittances have no significant impact on consumer prices in the nation. So, it is vital to control inflation to be able to deal with poverty and economic growth. Policies are needed to keep the inflation target range around the optimum inflation rate to accelerate the pace of economic growth and ensure that the adverse effect inflation has on economic growth is minimized.

Microfinance, Financial Inclusion and Economic Welfare in Africa: A Panel Investigation

This study explores the relationship between microfinance, financial inclusion, and economic welfare in a sample of 23 African countries for the period of 2004 to 2023 using annual time series data. We measured microfinance with the number of Branches of Microfinance banks, Microfinance Borrowers, Microfinance outstanding deposits, Microfinance outstanding loans; financial inclusion number of registered mobile money accounts per 1,000 adults; the number of mobile money agent outlets par 1,000 adults; and digital card ownership; governance and institutional quality with Rule of law, regulatory quality, and government effectiveness; and economic welfare with household consumption; while we controlled for the inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate. These variables were estimated using Panel Least Squares, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), Dynamic OLS (DOLS), and Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques. The result of the cointegration revealed that cointegration exists between the variables of the model. Findings from the aforesaid estimation techniques show that there is the existence of long-run relationships between microfinance, financial inclusion, and economic welfare since the coefficients of the microfinance and financial inclusion variables are statistically significant. The coefficients of the error correction terms which measure the effects of the short-run dynamics of the model suggest that the speeds of adjustment from the long run to the short run in the models would be 76%, 61%, 83%, 67%, 68%, 34%, and 80% respectively for all the specified models. Following the findings of the study, conclusions were drawn and the study suggests that microfinance institutions should adapt to the digitization of their products and services for wider coverage on one hand; the government should provide digital financial amenities to create a fertile ground for micro-financial institutions to rely on to maximize the welfare of the economy.