Inflation Index Research Articles

A Macroeconomic Model of Federal and Commercial Spectrum Usage

All wireless communication depends on effective and efficient access to the electromagnetic spectrum. Spectrum is a critical national resource that enables both national and economic security. Demand for spectrum is growing, while its supply is practically limited. A Macroeconomic Model of Federal and Commercial Spectrum Usage is one of multiple research projects on the topic of Spectrum Innovation for the Whole-of-Nation. This research is developing innovative toolsets and capabilities to help meet the United States (U.S.) objective of using electromagnetic spectrum as efficiently and effectively as possible while balancing economic, national security, and other national goals now and in the future. The project team built a capability to conduct objective and transparent macroeconomic analysis of the impact of spectrum decisions on the U.S. economy. The initial proof-of-concept model addressed the questions: What value does spectrum bring to the U.S. economy based on a shift from fourth generation (4G) to fifth generation (5G) wireless technology? What is the marginal value of additional spectrum to 5G? This spectrum macroeconomic model estimates the impact of spectrum decisions on U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The model consists of three components: a wireless network infrastructure model that estimates the relative costs of 4G and 5G services, a 5G use case model that estimates industry level impacts on cost and demand, and a tailored a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that estimates economy-wide, impacts. This research required a diverse team with multi-disciplinary expertise in economics, modeling, electromagnetic spectrum, wireless communications, wireless network infrastructure, operations research, systems engineering, and policy. The team developed new methodologies and integrated data sets across multiple domains including: 4G and 5G wireless gross and network demand, wireless network cell sizes and throughput, demand over geographic coverage areas, downlink allocation and efficiency, mobile network operators, channelization, cost of production for 4G and 5G wireless services (capital, labor, other intermediate goods), operating expenses, network buildout strategies, total factor of productivity assumptions, depreciation rates, useful life of capital, residual value of assets, national income product account data, and Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis data on population, labor supply, GDP components, inflation indices, and exchange rates. This novel research tailored a best-in-class CGE model to the spectrum domain. In addition to building the model, the team examined relationships between parameters and variables of the different models to test the overall sensitivity and developed initial results and key findings. The research can be used to inject objective data and optimization into decision-making processes. Applications of the model could inform Federal spectrum sharing/allocation policies, 5G and sixth generation (6G) network evolution strategies, and balancing Federal/Non-Federal spectrum value. This research contributes to addressing spectrum issues with an impartial, transparent, consistent methodology across stakeholders, in the public interest, and as a Whole-of-Nation.

The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence Based on Bound Test Approach

The objective of this research is to examine the monetary policy's impact on economic growth. Variables of study are Gross domestic product, Inflation, rate of interest, Exchange rate, Money supply, Investment, and Consumer Price Index and time series data is collected from. Gross domestic product is a dependent variable and all other variables are independent and have a great effect on the explanatory variable. In this study, the Augmented dicky fuller test is used to check out the stationarity of our selected variables and after that autoregressive distributed lag model co-integration technique is applied to estimate the parameters of the model. The result shows that inflation, interest rate, and consumer price index show a negative impact on gross domestic product. While other variables such as exchange rate, money supply, and investment show a positive impact on GDP. The study recommended that the desired level of output and employment can be attained by adopting sufficient strategies that reduce inflation in the economy.

Has international CPI inflation comovement strengthened since the global financial crisis?

AbstractThis study detects a structural break in international consumer price index (CPI) inflation comovement. We estimate the dynamic common factor models with unknown breakpoints of cross-country inflation rates and global price index of all commodities. We identify two global factors from the models: a commodity global factor and a noncommodity global factor. The former is a common factor between national inflation rates and commodity price index growth; the latter is a common factor among national inflation rates. The estimation of 29 countries’ quarterly CPI inflation data from 2001:Q1 to 2018:Q2 shows a one-time break in cross-country inflation dynamics in 2008:Q4. Thereafter, the importance of global factors in explaining the national inflation rates is remarkably increased. Furthermore, the increased global inflation synchronization is mainly driven by the larger role of the noncommodity global factor rather than that of the commodity global factor.

The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate and Dow Jones Index to Indonesia Composite Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange on the Year 2013-2018

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the influence of inflation, currency exchange rates, SBI interest rates, and the Dow Jones index on the Jakarta Composite Index on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2018. Methods of quantitative research utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analytic techniques in conjunction with the use of SmartPLS 3. The findings of this study indicate that inflation has a substantial negative influence on the CSPI. This indicates that as inflation increases, the JCI decreases. The exchange rate has a substantial negative effect on the JCI. This demonstrates that the exchange rate variable has a direct effect on the direction of the high exchange rate, lowering the JCI in the process. The SBI interest rate has no effect on the JCI and is rather detrimental to it. This indicates that when the number of SBI interest rates increases, the CSPI remains same. The Dow Jones index has a sizable positive correlation with the CSPI. This indicates that the Dow Jones index's rise has an effect on the JCI. By a factor of 0.982, the Dow Jones Index has the greatest effect on work motivation, followed by inflation, exchange rates, and SBI interest rates on the IHSG on the 2013-2018 Stock Exchange.

The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate and Dow Jones Index to Indonesia Composite Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange on the Year 2013-2018

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the influence of inflation, currency exchange rates, SBI interest rates, and the Dow Jones index on the Jakarta Composite Index on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2018. Methods of quantitative research utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analytic techniques in conjunction with the use of SmartPLS 3. The findings of this study indicate that inflation has a substantial negative influence on the CSPI. This indicates that as inflation increases, the JCI decreases. The exchange rate has a substantial negative effect on the JCI. This demonstrates that the exchange rate variable has a direct effect on the direction of the high exchange rate, lowering the JCI in the process. The SBI interest rate has no effect on the JCI and is rather detrimental to it. This indicates that when the number of SBI interest rates increases, the CSPI remains same. The Dow Jones index has a sizable positive correlation with the CSPI. This indicates that the Dow Jones index's rise has an effect on the JCI. By a factor of 0.982, the Dow Jones Index has the greatest effect on work motivation, followed by inflation, exchange rates, and SBI interest rates on the IHSG on the 2013-2018 Stock Exchange.

INFLATION, BI 7 DAYS REPO RATE, AND JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX ON NET ASSET VALUE OF SHARIA MUTUAL FUND

This research purposed to examine the effect of inflation, BI 7 Days Repo Rate (BI7DRR), and Jakarta Composite Index on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund. The method used is the descriptive and derivative method with a quantitative approach, with multiple linear regression analysis to find the relationship between the variables. This study uses purposive sampling as the sampling technique, which is the sharia mutual fund registered in the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia. This research observed the variables in the period of 2016 to 2020 with monthly time series from secondary data. The findings result that partially, inflation has significant effect with negative direction on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund, while the BI7DRR and Jakarta Composite Index has insiginificant impact on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund. This result shows the investment behavior by investor where the inflation rate becomes a consideration whether to put their fund in investment, especially sharia mutual fund or more concern on their consumption. On the other side, the value of BI7DRR and the Jakarta Composite Index does not become investor’s consideration to investing in sharia mutual fund. For simultaneous effect, inflation, BI7DRR, and Jakarta Composite Index have a significant effect on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund for 66%, which shows that the combined economic situation consisting of these factors can affect the movement of the net asset value of sharia mutual fund with a possibility of 66%, while 34% of the possibility left can be affected by variables outside this research.

PENGARUH KURS, INFLASI DAN INDEKS PRODUKSI INDUSTRI TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX PERIODE 2010-2019

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic factors on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The variables in this study are exchange rate, inflation, and Industrial Production Index (IPI). This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed (ARDL) model. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of monthly time series (time series) from January 2010 to December 2019 taken from publications from the Central Statistics Agency, Bank Indonesia, related journals and references. The results of this study are the exchange rate and inflation variables have a negative and significant effect on JII in the short and long term. Industrial Production Index (IPI) has no significant effect.

On the welfare implications of nominal GDP targeting

This paper examines the welfare implications of a nominal GDP growth targeting rule, a nominal GDP level targeting rule, and inflation targeting regime in a New Keynesian model featuring positive trend inflation, two measures of welfare, and both high and low growth environments. The paper finds that (i) in general, nominal GDP growth targeting dominates other rules with changes in all dimensions; (ii) nominal GDP growth targeting framework is superior to the level targeting regime for most scenarios; (iii) inflation targeting is preferred to nominal GDP level targeting regime, but to minimize short-run fluctuations, the latter is advantageous; (iv) nominal GDP level targeting may be desirable only in a low growth environment with both low inflation indexation and consumption equivalence criteria. The simulation results provide solid evidence to policy makers on the desirability of nominal GDP growth targeting.

Investigation of Energy Inflation Dynamics in Pakistan: Revisiting the Role of Structural Determinants

Enormous fluctuation has been observed in energy prices in recent years. This strong volatility in energy prices implies grave inferences for Pakistan’s economy as shown by its substantial dependence on imported fuels. In Pakistan, energy prices play a critical role in inflation determination also concluded in the study at hand. The index of energy inflation was constructed, and the role of various control variables such as board money, taxes, oil prices, energy import, and GDP has been elaborated. Current study endeavors to examine the determinants of energy inflation in Pakistan by using time-series data for 1991 to 2019. Unit root was tested by utilizing ADF, furthermore, the Bound test suggested ARDL cointegration for empirical analysis. Therefore, an increase in the demand for energy in economic activities in developing countries indicates an energy demand hence implies energy inflation. The government of Pakistan must focus on the role of these factors to control inflation and to enhance the welfare in the country.

Primary Housing Market in the Context of Wages and Creditworthiness in Selected Cities in Poland in the Years 2006-2019

Purpose: The paper presents the evolution of average unit prices of apartments in selected primary local markets in Poland in 2006-2019. The period covers the end of the price increase phase, their correction, and then stabilization and another upward phase. A characteristic feature of the study is that prices of apartments were presented not only in nominal terms, but also in several real term approaches. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was conducted using publicly available data on residential prices in selected cities. Prices were adjusted in a traditional way, i.e. by means of inflation indices, but also through the perspective of salary growth and creditworthiness. The results were presented graphically by means of charts. Findings: It turns out that the above approach to the evolution of housing prices may lead to conclusions that are quite different from the stereotypical ones concerning the assessment of the housing market situation, its forecasts, as well as the assessment of threats and consequences of relations among prices viewed in varying ways. In particular, it has been shown that the observed tendencies do not seem favorable, since they lead to the perception of an apartment as an exceptionally expensive good, which, unfortunately, will not become apparent until turbulence of interest rates and income hit the market. Practical Implications: The results of the research can be applied to forecasts of housing market trends and are particularly useful to developers, banks, realtors, potential apartment buyers as well as the government bodies responsible for housing policy. Originality/Value: Similar research has not yet been conducted in the local housing markets in Poland. The conclusions from the study can provide an important signal regarding the direction of changes on the housing market.

Budget impact (BI) analysis of cemiplimab for first-line (1L) advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) ≥50% in the United States.

e18817 Background: Cemiplimab monotherapy (mono) demonstrated significant survival benefit versus chemotherapy (CT) in the first-line (1L) treatment of advanced NSCLC with PD-L1 ≥50%. This analysis estimated the BI of introducing cemiplimab in the US from the healthcare payer’s perspective, in the context of available treatments. Methods: Cohorts of patients (pts) with advanced NSCLC and PD-L1 ≥50% without EGFR/ ALK mutations were modeled over 3 years (yrs). Treatment duration inputs were based on median progression-free survival (PFS) from EMPOWER-Lung 1 trial for cemiplimab and CT, and published data on median PFS for other immuno-oncology (IO) agents. Market shares were based on market research and assumed the following distribution in the scenario without cemiplimab: 68% pembrolizumab (pembro); 15% pembro + CT; 6% durvalumab (durva); 4% platinum CT; 3% atezolizumab (atezo); 2% nivolumab (nivo); and 2% nivo + ipilimumab (ipi). Cemiplimab market share was assumed to increase from 1% (yr 1), to 6% (yr 2), to 10% (yr 3). The analysis assumed that 50% of the cemiplimab market share will come from displacement of pembro mono, whilst the other 50% will come from displacement of platinum CT, atezo, durva, nivo, and nivo + ipi. The market share for pembro + CT was assumed to remain the same in both scenarios. Monthly list price of cemiplimab was lower than pembro and nivo at the time of this research and were sourced from ProspectoRx drug pricing database. Adverse event costs were estimated using HCUP 2017 data and ICD-10 codes specific to each event and inflated to 2019 costs using medical inflation indices from Bureau of Labour Statistics. Disease management costs were per Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. In univariate sensitivity analyses, inputs were varied by ±20% to model the impact on total incremental costs over 3 yrs. Results: In a hypothetical US healthcare plan of 1,000,000 members, ̃60 were eligible to receive 1L cemiplimab treatment for advanced NSCLC with PD-L1 ≥50% in yr 1. The average incremental cost per member per month was $0.0038. The 3-yr incremental cumulative BI of cemiplimab was $138,463, representing a 0.561% increase in the healthcare payer’s 3-yr expenditures on these 60 pts. The incremental cost of adding cemiplimab was $8,744 in yr 1; $50,187 in yr 2; and $79,533 in yr 3. The analysis was most sensitive to changes to the treatment duration for cemiplimab (±172%) and pembro (±93%). Changes to all other inputs had < 20% impact. Conclusions: Cemiplimab is likely to be associated with a minimal increase in the budget for 1L treatment of advanced NSCLC with PD-L1 ≥50%. With a numerically lower list price relative to pembro and nivo, BI of cemiplimab was driven by the treatment duration for cemiplimab, which was higher than comparator treatments due to increased PFS.

Integrated evaluation of investment attractiveness in the context of economic sectors: Ukraine as a case study

This study explores the evaluation of investment attractiveness of Ukraine’s economy. The following factors are analyzed: the social significance of the sector, the coefficient of support for the sectoral development, the coefficient of production efficiency, the index of fierce competition, and the inflation index. The results of applying the calculation of the average value of the weighting factor within a particular sector and the method of the sum of sets show that the most significant influence on the investment attractiveness of the economy sector are factors of economic efficiency and support of the sector by the state. The study is based on the development and calculation of an integrated indicator of sectoral attractiveness. This approach makes it possible to take into account a set of factors and more accurately describe the existing priorities of a particular sector of the economy. The conclusion is that that the most attractive sectors in Ukraine are industry, trade, transport and communications, as well as financial activities. The education sector remains the least attractive for investment. It is estimated that its attractiveness does not exceed 10% of the threshold. Unattractive for investments sectors will need special attention from the government. Correcting the current situation and attracting additional investment in such areas can significantly reduce the burden on the state budget. The findings of this investigation can be used in order to expand the existing tools for the formation of economic policy of Ukraine and improve the practice of evaluation of sectoral investment. AcknowledgementsThis article was prepared and funded within the research theme “Strategy of structural reorientation of Ukraine’s economy in the conditions of a pandemic” reg. No. 0121U109608 of Economic Theory and Competitive Policy Department of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics.

Trend in Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Utilization, Price, and Out-of-Pocket Costs in Patients With Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia.

Treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) has improved survival but is associated with significant financial burden. We measured the annual trend in TKI utilization, Medicare gross payment, and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure from 2007 to 2016. We used SEER linked to Medicare part-D claims data to identify prevalent CML cases from 2007 to 2016. TKI utilization was measured as the proportion of cases with at least one TKI fill in each year. Average TKI gross payment and median per-member per-month OOP expenditure were calculated from claims data and plotted annually from 2007 to 2016. Year-to-year percent change in gross payment and OOP expenditure was compared with inflation indices. The cohort included 3,189 CML cases with at least one TKI claim. The proportion of prevalent patients with a TKI fill in a year increased from 17.9% in 2007 to 52.8% in 2015. The average annual gross payment per 30-day supply of a TKI increased by an average of 12.8% throughout the period from $9,000 to $10,000 US dollars in 2016. There was no increasing trend in median OOP expenditure per 30-day supply, which varied between $450 and $600 US dollars. Rising TKI use and TKI drug prices place considerable financial pressure on Medicare part-D insurers. Although there was no increasing trend in OOP expenditure, it may be burdensome for Medicare patients who are likely retired on a fixed income. Our findings support legislation that mitigates increasing drug prices to protect the Medicare system and its beneficiaries.

Evaluasi Pengendalian Inflasi di Kota Bandar Lampung Tahun 2018

Inflation is one of the economic problems of a country including Indonesia. One of the efforts of the Indonesian government to control inflation is by coordinating with Bank Indonesia to establish an Inflation Control Team at the central and regional levels, through which the program is implemented to control inflation. The purpose of this research is to evaluate inflation control conducted by the Bandar Lampung City Government through the Bandar Lampung Regional Inflation Control Team in the foodstuffs group which is one of the contributing factors to high inflation in 2018. This research uses descriptive research method with qualitative approach, and uses data collection technique by interview, observation and documentation. Data analysis techniques used in this research are data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing, while for data validity techniques using observation and triangulation extension techniques. This research uses Karl Ludwig Bartelenfy's evaluation model of input, process, output, results, and impact evaluation. The results of this study concluded that in controlling the inflation of foodstuff groups the Regional Inflation Control Team through the food task force carried out various programs of activities, among others, monitoring, coaching, market inspection and monitoring market prices, as well as market operation or cheap markets. From the activities program can be seen how the development of market prices, minimizing the circulation og products that do not meet the standards, and the availability of foodstuff. Program of activities have iven quite good results, this can be seen from the trendline chart taht shows a decrease in the foodstuff. Although it has not been significantly due to constraints on the budget, it also has a good impact in addition to the decrease in the inflation index but also on increasing cooperation with new partners that is expected to help and facilitate efforts to control inflation in the future.

PENGARUH INFLASI DAN INDEKS PRODUKSI INDUSTRI (IPI) TERHADAP TOTAL EMISI SUKUK KORPORASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Sukuk is one of capital market instruments comes as an alternative for investors who want to invest with sharia-compliant and low risk. However, the domestic economy is able to influence the issuance of sukuk, so the further analysis of sukuk by looking at the macroeconomic factors needs to be done. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of inflation and industrial production index (IPI) on total corporate Sukuk emissions in Indonesia during the 2014-2018 period. The type of this study is quantitative research. The secondary data used are obtained from Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), and Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). The results show that inflation has a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, the industrial production index has a positive and significant effect on total corporate sukuk emissions in Indonesia during the 2014-2018 period

Deciphering Indian inflationary expectations through text mining: an exploratory approach

Inflationary forecasts tend to play a crucial role in macroeconomic and financial decision/policy making. In particular, in an inflation-targeting framework, it is of paramount importance. While traditionally, model-based and survey-based inflation expectations are being used, in recent times, a literature has emerged to forecast various macro-aggregates using text-based sentiment estimates. Taking a cue from this approach, in this paper we attempt to decipher inflationary sentiments using text mining from two leading financial dailies, viz., the Economic Times and Business Line. We consciously avoid using social media news due to severe challenges and high noise-to-signal ratio. In our algorithm we aggregate CPI basket level (viz., food, fuel, cloth & miscellaneous) sentiment into an overall index of inflation, adapting techniques from natural language processing. Our results from this text-based model indicate significant success in tracking actual inflation.

COVID-19 pandemic and stock market reaction: empirical insights from 15 Asian countries

Since 2020, the world has been passing through a difficult time due to the outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic. This novel public health emergency has created both demand- and supply-side shocks affecting both real and financial sectors of economies globally. One of the noteworthy immediate consequences of it was sudden nosedive of stock markets across countries in the globe. In this pre-text, this study examined the stock market behaviour in 15 selected Asian markets amid the pandemic. The results infer about the surge in market return volatilities amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus which was primarily triggered through the impaired investors’ sentiments due to the announcement effects. During this period, the stock market performances in selected Asian countries have been observed to be influenced by the reporting of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases, stock index returns, market volatility, oil prices, inflation rate, and interest rates.

Interest Rate, Inflation and Jakarta Composite Index on Digital Media Based Companies Stock Return in Indonesia

In this paper, we found the evidence of the effect of interest rates, inflation and Jakarta Composite Index on stock returns of digital-based mass media companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Objects have taken as a sample of 5 digital-based mass media companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with a research period from July 2014 to June 2019. These objects are MNCN, ABBA, SCMA, LPLI, and TMPO. Samples were taken by a purposive method with the criteria of companies that have been registered before the study period and have a balanced company size. The analytical method used is path analysis with multiple linear regression models. Research data shows that MNCN, SCMA and LPLI stock prices tend to weaken, while ABBA and TMPO stock prices tend to strengthen from July 2014 to June 2019. The analysis results showed that the interest rate variable (X1) had a negative and significant effect on stock returns (Y1). The inflation variable (X2) had a positive and not significant effect on stock returns (Y1), the IHSG variable (X3) had a positive and significant effect on stock returns (Y1). Therefore, investors need to look at JCI’s movements to optimize the return of stock digital media-based companies.

Information frictions, monetary policy, and the paradox of price flexibility

The introduction of digital price tags and e-commerce facilitates the implementation of price adjustments and thereby diminishes the degree of nominal rigidity in an economy. Is this phenomenon welfare-improving? We address this question using a multi-sector New Keynesian model with information frictions and dispersed beliefs. Increased price flexibility may decrease welfare through the dispersed belief channel and the amplified spillover effects. Dispersed beliefs create a novel channel through which the welfare cost of inflation in a sector increases with price flexibility, altering the optimal inflation index stabilization policy. A monetary policy that stabilizes the optimal inflation index mitigates this paradox.

An explanatory model of stock prices in the Brazilian transport sector

The aim of this study is to establish an explanatory model of the variation of the prices of shares from the transport sector listed in B3. Methodology: Daily stock prices were collected from companies in the transport sector listed on B3 since its IPO until December 31, 2019. Companies that were not on the floor on this date were discarded. As an analysis tool, simple and multiple linear regressions were used. The dependent variable (annual variation in the share price of the transport sector) was subjected to variables such as exchange rate variation, economic activity, as well as important inputs such as wages and fuel, and the Ibovespa variation. Results and conclusions: a model with less variables (Ibovespa variation and inflation variation) was adopted, where a determination coefficient of 0.5131 was obtained (linear coefficient of 0.716). The model, therefore, is closely linked to the stock index and the variation in the inflation index, giving a much more financial profile to these assets.