Infant Mortality In Ethiopia Research Articles

Inequalities of Infant Mortality in Ethiopia.

(1) Background: Infant mortality is viewed as a core health indicator of overall community health. Although globally child survival has improved significantly over the years, Sub-Saharan Africa is still the region with the highest infant mortality in the world. In Ethiopia, infant mortality is still high, albeit substantial progress has been made in the last few decades. However, there is significant inequalities in infant mortalities in Ethiopia. Understanding the main sources of inequalities in infant mortalities would help identify disadvantaged groups, and develop equity-directed policies. Thus, the purpose of the study was to provide a diagnosis of inequalities of infant mortalities in Ethiopia from four dimensions of inequalities (sex, residence type, mother's education, and household wealth). (2) Methods: Data disaggregated by infant mortalities and infant mortality inequality dimensions (sex, residence type, mother's education, and household wealth) from the WHO Health Equity Monitor Database were used. Data were based on Ethiopia's Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) of 2000 (n = 14,072), 2005 (n = 14,500), 2011 (n = 17,817), and 2016 (n = 16,650) households. We used the WHO Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) software to find estimates of infant mortalities along with inequality measures. (3) Results: Inequalities related to sex, residence type, mother's education, and household wealth still exist; however, differences in infant mortalities arising from residence type, mother's education, and household wealth were narrowing with the exception of sex-related inequality where male infants were markedly at a disadvantage. (4) Conclusions: Although inequalities of infant mortalities related to social groups still exist, there is a substantial sex related infant mortality inequality with disproportional deaths of male infants. Efforts directed at reducing infant mortality in Ethiopia should focus on improving the survival of male infants.

Geographical disparities and determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia: mapping and spatial analysis using EDHS data

BackgroundInfant mortality remains a public health challenge in Ethiopia. Exploring infant mortality will aid in tracking the progress toward achieving sustainable development goals.ObjectiveThe study aimed to explore the geographical variations and associated factors of infant mortality in Ethiopia.MethodA total of 11,023 infants from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data were extracted and included in the analysis. EDHS used a two-stage cluster sampling design with a census enumeration area as the primary sampling unit and households as the secondary sampling unit. Arc GIS software was used for spatial analysis using clusters for exploring geographical variations in infant mortality. A binary logistic regression was employed using R software to identify the significant determinants of infant mortality.ResultsThe study revealed that the spatial distribution of infant mortality was non-random in the country. Infants whose mothers not receiving ANC (AOR = 1.45; 95%CI: 1.17, 1.79), not breastfed status (AOR = 3.94; 95%CI: 3.19, 4.81), poor wealth index (AOR = 1.36; 95%CI: 1.04, 1.77), male infants (AOR = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.29, 1.95), birth order of six or above (AOR = 3.11; 95%CI: 2.08, 4.62), small birth size (AOR = 1.27; 95%CI: 1.26, 1.60), birth spacing [(≤ 24 months (AOR = 2.29; 95%CI: 1.79, 2.92), 25–36 months (AOR = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.12, 1.49)], multiple births (AOR = 6.82; 95%CI: 4.76, 10.81), rural residence (AOR = 1.63; 95%CI: 1.05, 2.77) and regions [Afar (AOR = 1.54; 95%CI: 1.01, 2.36), Harari (AOR = 1.56; 95%CI: 1.04, 2.56), and Somali (AOR = 1.52; 95%CI: 1.03, 2.39)] were the determinants of infant death in Ethiopia.ConclusionsThere is a great geographical disparity in infant mortality rates across regions. Afar, Harari, and Somali regions were verified as hot spot areas. ANC usage, breastfed status, wealth index, sex of the infant, birth order, birth size, birth spacing, birth type, residence, and region were the determinants of infant death in Ethiopia. Therefore, appropriate interventions need to be implemented in the hot spots to alleviate the risk factors for infant mortality.

Prevalence, spatial distribution and determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia: Findings from the 2019 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey.

Infant mortality declined globally in the last three decades. However, it is still a major public health concern in Ethiopia. The burden of infant mortality varies geographically with the highest rate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although different kinds of literature are available regarding infant mortality in Ethiopia, an up to date information is needed to design strategies against the problem. Thus, this study aimed to determine the prevalence, show the spatial variations and identify determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia. The prevalence, spatial distribution, and predictors of infant mortality among 5,687 weighted live births were investigated using secondary data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2019. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to determine the spatial dependency of infant mortality. The spatial clustering of infant mortality was studied using hotspot analyses. In an unsampled area, ordinary interpolation was employed to forecast infant mortality. A mixed multilevel logistic regression model was used to find determinants of infant mortality. Variables with a p-value less than 0.05 were judged statistically significant and adjusted odds ratios with 95 percent confidence intervals were calculated. The prevalence of infant mortality in Ethiopia was 44.5 infant deaths per 1000 live births with significant spatial variations across the country. The highest rate of infant mortality was observed in Eastern, Northwestern, and Southwestern parts of Ethiopia. Maternal age between 15&19 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.51, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.37, 4.61) and 45&49(AOR = 5.72, 95% CI: 2.81, 11.67), having no antenatal care follow-up (AOR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.79) and Somali region (AOR = 2.78, 95% CI: 1.05, 7.36) were significantly associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, infant mortality was higher than the worldwide objective with significant spatial variations. As a result, policy measures and strategies aimed at lowering infant mortality should be devised and strengthened in clustered areas of the country. Special attention should be also given to infants born to mothers in the age groups of 15-19 and 45-49, infants of mothers with no antenatal care checkups, and infants born to mothers living in the Somali region.

Multivariate frailty models using survey weights with applications to twins infant mortality in Ethiopia

Multivariate frailty models using survey weights with applications to twins infant mortality in Ethiopia

Determinant of infant mortality in Ethiopia: demographic, socio economic, maternal and environmental factors

Determinant of infant mortality in Ethiopia: demographic, socio economic, maternal and environmental factors

Multilevel log linear model to estimate the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia: further analysis of 2016 EDHS

BackgroundInfant mortality is defined as the death of a child at any time after birth and before the child’s first birthday. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest infant and child mortality rate in the world. Infant and child mortality rates are higher in Ethiopia. A study was carried out to estimate the risk factors that affect infant mortality in Ethiopia.MethodThe EDHS− 2016 data set was used for this study. A total of 10,547 mothers from 11 regions were included in the study’s findings. To estimate the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia, several count models (Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Infated Poisson, Zero-Infated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial) were considered.ResultThe average number of infant deaths was 0.526, with a variance of 0.994, indicating over-dispersion. The highest mean number of infant death occurred in Somali (0.69) and the lowest in Addis Ababa (0.089). Among the multilevel log linear models, the ZINB regression model with deviance (17,868.74), AIC (17,938.74), and BIC (1892.97) are chosen as the best model for estimating the risk factors affecting infant mortality in Ethiopia. However, the results of a multilevel ZINB model with a random intercept and slope model revealed that residence, mother’s age, household size, mother’s age at first birth, breast feeding, child weight, contraceptive use, birth order, wealth index, father education level, and birth interval are associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia.ConclusionInfant deaths remains high and infant deaths per mother differ across regions. An optimal fit was found to the data based on a multilevel ZINB model. We suggest fitting the ZINB model to count data with excess zeros originating from unknown sources such as infant mortality.

Optimum maternal healthcare service utilization and infant mortality in Ethiopia

BackgroundEthiopia has one of the highest rates of infant mortality in the world. Utilization of maternal healthcare during pregnancy, at delivery, and after delivery is critical to reducing the risk of infant mortality. Studies in Ethiopia have shown how infant survival is affected by utilization of maternal healthcare services, however, no studies to date have investigated the relationship between optimum utilization of maternal healthcare services utilization and infant mortality. Therefore, this study examined the effect of optimum utilization of maternal healthcare service on infant mortality in Ethiopia based on the World Health Organization (WHO, 2010) guidelines.MethodsWe used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Sampling weights were applied to adjust for the non-proportional allocation of the sample to the nine regions and two city administrations as well as the sample difference across urban and rural areas. A total of 7193 most recent births from mothers who had provided complete information on infant mortality, ANC visits, tetanus injections, place of delivery and skilled birth attendance during pregnancy were included. The EDHS was conducted from January to June 2016. We applied a multivariate logistic regression analysis to estimate the relationship between optimum maternal healthcare service utilization and infant mortality in Ethiopia.ResultsThe findings from this study showed that optimum maternal healthcare service utilization had a significant association with infant mortality after adjusting for other socioeconomic characteristics. This implies that increased maternal healthcare service utilization decreases the rate of infant mortality in Ethiopia. The main finding from this study indicated that infant mortality was reduced by approximately 66% among mothers who had high utilization of maternal healthcare services compared to mothers who had not utilized maternal healthcare services (AOR = 0.34; 95%CI: 0.16–0.75; p-value = 0.007). Furthermore, infant mortality was reduced by approximately 46% among mothers who had low utilization of maternal healthcare services compared to mothers who had not utilized any maternal healthcare services (AOR = 0.54; 95%CI: 0.31–0.97; p-value = 0.040).ConclusionsFrom this study, we concluded that optimum utilization of maternal healthcare services during pregnancy, at delivery and after delivery might reduce the rate of infant mortality in Ethiopia.

Trends of infant mortality and its determinants in Ethiopia: mixed-effect binary logistic regression and multivariate decomposition analysis

BackgroundInfant mortality remains a serious global public health problem. The global infant mortality rate has decreased significantly over time, but the rate of decline in most African countries, including Ethiopia, is far below the rate expected to meet the SDG targets. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the trends of infant mortality and its determinants in Ethiopia based on the four consecutive Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHSs).MethodsThis analysis was based on the data from four EDHSs (EDHS 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016). A total weighted sample of 46,317 live births was included for the final analysis. The logit-based multivariate decomposition analysis was used to identify significantly contributing factors for the decrease in infant mortality in Ethiopia over the last 16 years. To identify determinants, a mixed-effect logistic regression model was fitted. The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Likelihood Ratio (LR) test were used to assess the presence of a significant clustering effect. Deviance, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) were used for model comparison. Variables with a p-value of less than 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable analysis, the Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were reported to identify the statistically significant determinants of infant mortality.ResultsInfant mortality rate has decreased from 96.9 per 1000 births in 2000 to 48 per 1000 births in 2016, with an annual rate of reduction of 4.2%. According to the logit based multivariate decomposition analysis, about 18.1% of the overall decrease in infant mortality was due to the difference in composition of the respondents with respect to residence, maternal age, type of birth, and parity across the surveys, while the remaining 81.9% was due to the difference in the effect of residence, parity, type of birth and parity across the surveys. In the mixed-effect binary logistic regression analysis; preceding interval < 24 months (AOR = 1.79, 95% CI; 1.46, 2.19), small size at birth (AOR = 1.55, 95% CI; 1.25, 1.92), large size at birth (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI; 1.01, 1.57), BMI < 18.5 kg/m2 (AOR = 1.22, 95% CI; 1.05, 1.50), and twins (AOR = 4.25, 95% CI; 3.01, 6.01), parity> 6 (1.51, 95% CI; 1.01, 2.26), maternal age and male sex (AOR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.79) were significantly associated with increased odds of infant mortality.ConclusionThis study found that the infant mortality rate has declined over time in Ethiopia since 2000. Preceding birth interval, child-size at birth, BMI, type of birth, parity, maternal age, and sex of child were significant predictors of infant mortality. Public health programs aimed at rural communities, and multiparous mothers through enhancing health facility delivery would help maintain Ethiopia’s declining infant mortality rate. Furthermore, improving the use of ANC services and maternal nutrition is crucial to reducing infant mortality and achieving the SDG targets in Ethiopia.

Residential inequality and spatial patterns of infant mortality in Ethiopia: evidence from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys

BackgroundDespite the remarkable decrease in infant mortality rate in most countries, the rate of decline is slow and it remains unacceptably high in Sub-Saharan Africa. The progress in infant mortality in Ethiopia is far below the rate needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal. Understanding the residential inequality and spatiotemporal clusters of infant mortality is essential to prioritize areas and guide public health interventions. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the residential inequality and spatial patterns of infant mortality in Ethiopia.MethodsA secondary data analysis was done based on the Ethiopian demographic and health surveys conducted in 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016. A total weighted sample of 46,317 live births was included for the final analysis. The residential inequality was assessed by calculating the risk difference in infant mortality rates between urban and rural live births and presented using a forest plot. For the spatial patterns of infant mortality, the SaTScan version 9.6 and ArcGIS version 10.6 statistical software were used to identify the spatial patterns of infant mortality.ResultsThe study revealed that the infant mortality rate significantly declined from 96.9 per 1000 live births [95% CI 93.6, 104.2] in 2000 to 48.0 per 1000 live births [95% CI 44.2, 52.2] in 2016 with an annual rate of reduction of 3.2%. The infant mortality rate has substantial residential inequality over time, which is concentrated in the rural area. The spatial distribution of infant mortality was significantly clustered at the national level in survey periods (global Moran’s I, 0.04–0.081, p value < 0.05). In 2000, the most likely clusters were found in east Afar and at the border areas of south Amhara and north Oromia regions (LLR = 7.61, p value < 0.05); in 2005, at the border areas of Southern Nations Nationalities and People and in the entire Amhara region (LLR = 10.78, p value< 0.05); in 2011, at Southern Nations Nationalities and People and Gambella regions (LLR = 6.63, p value< 0.05); and in 2016, at east Oromia and northeast Somali regions (LLR = 8.38, p value < 0.05).ConclusionIn this study, though infant mortality has shown remarkable reduction, infant mortality remains a major health care concern and had significant spatial variation across regions. Besides, the study found that infant mortality was highly concentrated in rural areas. Identifying the hotspot areas of infant mortality would help in designing effective interventions to reduce the incidence of infant mortality in these areas. Therefore, the findings highlighted that public health interventions should target rural areas and identified hotspot areas to reduce the incidence of infant mortality.

Proximate determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia, 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health surveys: results from a survival analysis

BackgroundIn Ethiopia, large scale health care efforts had been done to promote infant health and survival. However, nationwide data is lacking on the survival status and proximate determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to identify the survival status and determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia using Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS).MethodsThe data source for this study was the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Records of all 10,641 live births and survival informations of all 2826 infants born 5 years before the survey were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model were employed to identify the proximate determinants associated with the infant mortality.ResultsThe results of Kaplan-Meier estimation showed that the highest infant deaths occurred in the early months of life immediately after birth and declined in the later months of follow-up time. About 65% of infant deaths occurred during the first month’s of life. Using the Cox proportional hazard model we found that: mothers’ level of education, preceding birth interval, plurality, size of child at birth and sex of child as significant predictors of infant mortality. The risk of dying in infancy was lower for babies of mothers with secondary education (RR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56–0.98), higher education (RR = 0.51, 95% CI:0.45–0.80), for preceding birth interval longer than 47 months (RR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.92) and higher for birth interval shorter than 24 months (RR = 2.02, 95% CI:1.40–2.92), for multiple births (RR = 4.07, 95% CI: 1.14–14.50), for very small size of infants (RR = 3.74, 95% CI:1.73–8.12), for smaller than average size infants (RR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.40–7.41) and for female infants (RR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.01–1.56) compared to the reference category.ConclusionsA significant proportion of infants died during the study period of which nearly two third of deaths occurred during the first months of life. Thus, close monitoring and supporting reproductive age mothers to increase the uptakes of family planning and antenatal care and follow-up is highly recommended to increase the infant survival.

The effect of maternal education on infant mortality in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

IntroductionSome studies in developing countries have shown that infant mortality is highly associated with maternal education, implying that maternal education might play an important role in the reduction of infant mortality. However, other research has shown that lower levels of maternal education does not have any significant contribution to infant survival. In this systematic review, we focus on the effect of different levels of maternal education on infant mortality in Ethiopia.MethodsMEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Maternity and Infant Care databases were searched between November 15, 2017 and February 20, 2018. All articles published until February 20, 2018 were included in the study. The data extraction was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA 2009) guidelines. An I2 test was used to assess heterogeneity and a funnel plot was used to check publication bias.FindingsWe retrieved 441 records after removing duplications. During screening, 31 articles were fully accessed for data extraction. Finally, five articles were included for analysis. The overall pooled estimate indicated that attending primary education was associated with a 28% reduction in the odds of infant mortality compared to those infants born to mothers who were illiterate, OR: 0.72 (95% CI = 0.66, 0.78). Another pooled estimate indicated that attending secondary education and above was associated with a 45% reduction in the odds of infant mortality compared to those infants born to mothers who were illiterate, OR: 0.55 (95% CI = 0.47, 0.64).ConclusionFrom this study, understanding the long-term impact of maternal education may contribute to reduce infant mortality. Therefore, policy makers should give more attention in promoting the role of women through removing institutional and cultural barriers, which hinder women from access to education in order to reduce infant mortality in Ethiopia.

The Role of Empowerment in the Association between a Woman's Educational Status and Infant Mortality in Ethiopia: Secondary Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys.

Socioeconomic status at national, sub-national, household, and individual levels explains a significant portion of variation in infant mortality. Women's education is among the major determinants of infant mortality. The mechanism through which a woman's own educational status, over her husband's as well as household characteristics, influences infant mortality has not been well studied in developing countries. The objective of this study was to explore the role of woman's empowerment and household wealth in the association between a woman's educational status and infant mortality. The association between a woman's educational status and infant death, and the role of woman's empowerment and household wealth in this relationship, were examined among married women in Ethiopia through a secondary, serial cross-sectional analysis utilizing data on birth history of married women from three rounds of the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were conducted to examine the association between woman's education and infant death, and the possible mediation or moderation roles of woman empowerment and household wealth. Female education and empowerment were inversely associated with infant death. The results indicated mediation by empowerment in the education-infant death association, and effect modification by household wealth. Both empowerment and education had strongest inverse association with infant death among women from the richest households. The findings suggest an important role of female empowerment in the education-infant death relation, and the complexity of these factors according to household wealth. Woman empowerment programs may prove effective as a shorter term intervention in reducing infant mortality.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of short birth interval on infant mortality in Ethiopia.

IntroductionEven though Ethiopia has been celebrating the achievements of MDG 4, still one in every 17 Ethiopian children dies before their first birthday. This is the biggest of the African regional average. Short birth interval is inconsistently reported as a risk factor by limited and independent studies in Ethiopia. Therefore, the purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the pooled effect size of the preceding birth interval length on infant mortality.MethodsStudies were accessed through the electronic web-based search mechanism from PUBMED, Advanced Google Scholar, WHO databases and journals: PLOS ONE, and BMC, using independent and combinations of key terms. Comprehensive meta-analysis version 2 was used to analyze the data. An I2 test was used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plot and statistical significance by Egger’s test of the intercept was used to check publication bias. The final estimate was determined in the form of odds ratio by applying Duval and Tweedie’s trim and fill analysis in the Random-effects model.Results872 studies were identified on the reviewed topic. During screening, forty-five studies were found to be relevant for data abstraction. However, only five studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. In all of the studies included in the analysis, the preceding birth interval had a significant association with under-one mortality. The final pooled estimate in the form of the odds ratio for infant mortality with a preceding birth interval of less than 24 months was found to be 2.03 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.70, random effect (five studies, n=43,909), I2=70%, P<0.05).ConclusionIn Ethiopia, promoting the length of birth interval to at least two years lowered under-one mortality by 50% (95% CI: 35%, 63%).

Determinants of infant mortality in community of Gilgel Gibe Field Research Center, Southwest Ethiopia: a matched case control study.

BackgroundInfant mortality accounts for almost 67 percent of under-five child mortality that occurs globally. An understanding of factors related to infant mortality is important to guide the development of focused and evidence-based health interventions to reduce infant deaths. But no community based studies have been conducted to identify determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia for the past two decades. The purpose of this study is to identify determinants of infant mortality in community of Gilgel Gibe Field Research Center, Southwest Ethiopia.MethodsA community based matched case–control study was conducted. The study covered 133 infants who died during infancy between January 2010 and February 2011 in the study area. For each case, a control with approximately same date of birth and survived his/her first year of live and alive at time data collection was selected. Conditional logistic regression method was used to identify determinant factors of infant mortality using Epi-info 3.5.1 statistical software.ResultsAccording to the final logistic regression model, not attending antenatal care follow-up [AOR=2.04, 95% CI:(1.04,4.02)], not using soap for hand washing before feeding child [AOR=2.50, 95% CI: (1.32,4.76)], negative perceived benefits of mother to modern treatment and prevention [AOR=2.76, 95% CI: (1.21,6.09)], small birth size [AOR=2.91, 95% CI: (1.01,8.46)] and high birth order with short birth interval [AOR=3.80, 95% CI: (1.20,11.98)] were found to be independent determinants of infant mortality.ConclusionsAntenatal care follow-up, hand washing habit with soap before feeding child, birth size, perceived benefits of mothers to modern treatment, birth order and preceding birth interval were determinants of infant mortality.

Maternal Education and Child Height

In Jamaica the effect of mothers education on child height is independent of household income sanitation sewerage and kitchen facilities as well as access to community health services. There is evidence that education is correlated with unobserved household heterogeneity such as tastes knowledge of symptoms of ill health food preparation methods and variations in the health production function. This correlation is consistent with child care norms in Jamaica where females within households routinely share child care responsibilities and thus information related to child health. An important implication of this result is that the increased education of any woman in the household (and not just the mother or primary caregiver) can have a positive impact on child health. Unlike income information is a public good within the household and thus is easily shared. (excerpt)

The social costs of the demand for quantification

Their Origins That we live in a quantitative age is one of those rare statements that can be made without quantification. We consume numbers from the time we wake up (slugging averages, infant mortality in Ethiopia) through breakfast (percentage RDA of calcium in our cereal) to the evening news (percentage favoring more defense expenditures). are a particularly American passion; after all, this is the nation that put the requirement of a decennial census in its founding document. Casual sociology suggests that our love affair with numbers relates to the American faith in the perfectibility of society. suggest understanding and the possibility of improvement. Numbers don't lie is probably heard far more often than Mark Twain's reference to lies, damn lies and statistics. have also become essential in policy debate. Not only do politicians and bureaucrats cite statistics mercilessly, but the policy analysis community also encourages them by strongly endorsing the notion that hard numbers are the bedrock for developing good policy. This dedication to numbers in policy has significant costs. The demand for quantification often creates its own supply. Policy advocates generate their own numbers which, particularly in newer areas of policy making, are frequently of poor quality and difficult to evaluate. These numbers can exert a baleful influence in policy debates. This essay sketches the nature and extent of the problem. It also argues that advocacy-by-number is likely to become more prevalent in the future and suggests that little can be done to prevent the growth of the problem.