The social costs of the demand for quantification

Abstract

Their Origins That we live in a quantitative age is one of those rare statements that can be made without quantification. We consume numbers from the time we wake up (slugging averages, infant mortality in Ethiopia) through breakfast (percentage RDA of calcium in our cereal) to the evening news (percentage favoring more defense expenditures). are a particularly American passion; after all, this is the nation that put the requirement of a decennial census in its founding document. Casual sociology suggests that our love affair with numbers relates to the American faith in the perfectibility of society. suggest understanding and the possibility of improvement. Numbers don't lie is probably heard far more often than Mark Twain's reference to lies, damn lies and statistics. have also become essential in policy debate. Not only do politicians and bureaucrats cite statistics mercilessly, but the policy analysis community also encourages them by strongly endorsing the notion that hard numbers are the bedrock for developing good policy. This dedication to numbers in policy has significant costs. The demand for quantification often creates its own supply. Policy advocates generate their own numbers which, particularly in newer areas of policy making, are frequently of poor quality and difficult to evaluate. These numbers can exert a baleful influence in policy debates. This essay sketches the nature and extent of the problem. It also argues that advocacy-by-number is likely to become more prevalent in the future and suggests that little can be done to prevent the growth of the problem.