SOBER, factual analysis of American trade relations with Japan since 1937 leads to even more disturbing conclusions than are usually entertained on this important issue. Many Americans are uneasily aware that the United States has been the main supplier of Japan's imports of war materials for these three years, a period in which the destructive Japanese assault on China has been relentlessly pursued. A much smaller number of Americans realize that the United States has also been the principal market for Japanese goods, supplying an overwhelmingly larger share of Japan's foreign exchange than any other country outside the yen bloc. Very few Americans, finally, are conscious of the changing composition of Japanese-American trade, and of the significance of this phenomenon in relation to Japan's industrial structure. These three factors are essential to a rounded treatment, even if only in summary form, of the current status of Japanese-American trade. A balanced picture cannot be obtained unless the United States is constantly regarded both as the prime source of Japan's imports and the largest external (non-yen bloc) market for Japanese goods. The dynamic factor is added by consideration of the new forms, and the special direction, being taken by this trade, which supply indications as to trends for the future. In this article I have made a special effort to marshal the relevant factual data in outline and tabular form. I have necessarily interpreted this material in the light of my own judgments, but trust that the data offered will enable readers to reach their independent conclusions. On the export side, in particular, I have drawn heavily on the bulletins issued by Dr. Hu Tun-yuan, of the Chinese Council for Economic Research, whose accurate and painstaking analyses of JapaneseAmerican trade statistics deserve wider circulation and much greater recognition than they have thus far achieved.
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