Individual-level Expectations Research Articles

Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning

This paper uses adaptive learning to understand the heterogeneity of individual-level expectations. We exploit individual Survey of Professional Forecasters data on output and inflation forecasts. We endow all forecasters with the same information set that they would have as economic agents in a benchmark New Keynesian model. Forecasters are, however, allowed to differ in the constant gain values that they use to update their beliefs and in their sentiments. The latter are defined as the degrees of excess optimism or pessimism about the economy that cannot be justified by the learning model. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in the gain coefficients adopted by forecasters. The median values of the gain coefficients occasionally jump to higher values in the 1970-80s, and stabilize in the 1990s and 2000s. Individual sentiment is also persistent and heterogeneous. Differences in sentiment, however, do not simply cancel out in the aggregate: the majority of forecasters exhibit excess optimism, or excess pessimism, at the same time.

How Customer Expectations Become Adjusted After Purchase

ABSTRACTAdjusted expectations play an important role in the post-purchase process. By considering the changes in individual-level expectations in the post-purchase period, this study examines the moderating effects of the level of online shopping habit on the links between adjusted expectations and their antecedents. The study proposes a theoretical model by integrating the expectancy disconfirmation model and customer value dimensions to compare the factors affecting adjusted expectations between the low and high online shopping habit. The results indicate that the effects of expectancy disconfirmation on adjusted expectations are stronger for the high-habit group than for the low-habit group. Further, the level of online shopping habit moderates the links between customer value dimensions and adjusted expectations. Specifically, factors such as confidence benefits and perceived price are associated with adjusted expectations for the low-habit group. In addition, for the high-habit group, perceived equity has a positive influence on adjusted expectations, and perceived sacrifice has a negative impact. These findings provide a better understanding of how customer expectations change, and can assist practitioners in developing more effective online business strategies.

Individual-level expectations of executive authority under territorial threat

What makes individuals likely to support state leaders with few constraints on executive authority? Leaders who reorganize power around their position seem inimical to most individuals’ welfare. Yet in many countries these leaders receive broad popular support when citizens feel some type of threat. This study argues that territorial threat leads individuals to support this type of state leadership. Mobilization of the military for defense of territory requires discretion by the state leader, leading individuals to interpret checks and balances as obstacles to security. The results using mixed effects logit analyses show a robust connection between territorial threat and individual-level expectations of the state leader. Individuals who live in states under territorial threat are more likely to prefer a state leader unconstrained by legislative process or other checks and balances. The analyses provided in this study have important implications for the study of popular support of democracy.

The Attitude Toward Voluntary Childlessness in Europe: Cultural and Institutional Explanations

The prevalence and social acceptance of childlessness have increased in recent decades. Still, little is known about how this social acceptance is shaped, the extent to which approval of childlessness differs across Europe, and what factors cause potential cross‐national variation. The authors used data from the European Social Survey 2006 (N =36,187) to examine the attitude toward voluntary childlessness in 20 countries. Results from multilevel models were largely in line with expectations derived from Second Demographic Transition theory concerning traditional orientation, age, religiousness, education, and stage of Second Demographic Transition in a country. The results also corroborated individual‐level expectations on the role of gender and socioeconomic status based on New Home Economics theory. One country‐level indicator, child‐care availability, was not related to the attitude toward childlessness. The current study provides new insights into explaining cross‐national differences in the attitude toward childlessness and more generally into the process of fertility decision making.

Do males hatch first and dominate sex ratios in White Stork Ciconia ciconia chicks?

Sex allocation has been a fertile topic in the development of evolutionary theory. The dominant models for vertebrates have provided predictions of sex ratios based on asymmetry in breeding success between sexes and the relative effect of local competition. In birds, empirical work has provided some support for these models, but has also generated apparently contradictory observations. Recent models have provided some predictions for both individual and population sex ratios, showing that the availability of high quality habitat patches and dispersal rates can critically affect both population- and individual-level expectations. We explore patterns in offspring sex ratio among chicks of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia, a large migratory bird species with bi-parental care, which does not show strong sexual dimorphism in size and survival patterns. We checked the hatching order and body weight of 342 nestlings from 124 broods, and their sexes were recorded over 4 years (2005–2008) in a dense healthy stork population in western Poland. Sex ratio in the study population was skewed to males (57.5%) which was consistent between years. We have assumed that chick age was directly related to their size. The heavier (and assumed older) chicks were significantly dominated by males.

Sex ratio variation and mixed pairs in roe deer: evidence for control of sex allocation?

Sex allocation has provided rich ground for the development of evolutionary theory. The dominant models in vertebrates have provided predictions of sex ratio based on asymmetry in variance in breeding success between sexes in the breeding system, and the relative effect of local competition. In ungulates, empirical work has provided some support for these models, but has also generated apparently contradictory observations. Recent models have provided some predictions for both individual and population sex ratio, showing that the availability of high-quality habitat patches and dispersal rates can critically affect both population- and individual-level expectations. We explore patterns in offspring sex ratio among a large sample of roe deer, a species with some interesting aspects of the breeding system. We found that in singleton pregnancies (the minority) there was an excess of male embryos, which was more marked in does in good condition at most sites. While the sex ratio among twins was close to parity, and unaffected either by average condition among populations or by individual condition within populations, we observed a clear excess of mixed pregnancies (sub-binomial variance, SBV). The excess was greater where the average condition was high. Within sites, population changes in average condition were associated with changes in SBV: in populations declining in condition, SBV also declined. There was no tendency for mixed twins to be more likely in individuals in better condition within a population. We conclude that condition-dependent allocation of sex does occur in roe deer. We suggest that in these "income breeders", mixed pairs might offer the greatest opportunity to optimize maternal investment during lactation, when conditions will be unpredictable, and that this is increasingly the case when average condition is poor.