Individual Asian Countries Research Articles

Singapore´s Bilateral Trading Arrangements in the Context of East Asian Regionalism: State of Play, Issues, and Prospects

With the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Cancun ministerial meeting of September 2003 failing as an interim stocktaking for the Doha round sched uled for completion by January 2005, it can be expected that the momentum for will grow. Distinguished from as eco nomic regionalization, the political economy of the new regionalism since the 1980s is driven by globalization, information technology, knowledge-based economy, deregulation, and strategic/security interests. More unilateral, bilateral, trilateral, plurilateral, and cross-regional free trade agreements (FTAs) and regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been notified to the WTO as a response to mismanaged multilateralism, perceived or otherwise. The new regionalism seems like a realignment of the traditional triad, made up of the European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), and the emerging East Asian regionalism. In East Asia, a burgeoning China within the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) co-operative framework is altering the dynamics of ASEAN as well as the old Japanese-led flying-geese pattern of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI).1 Even the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum seems lost given the new regionalism and intramural APEC difficulties. Non-completion of the ASEAN Free Trade Area by 2002 and synchrony with the new regionalism as WTO wanes have prompted individual ASEAN countries to enter into bilateral FTAs. An ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2020 ? proposed by Singa pore at the 2002 ASEAN summit ? as an FTA-plus but not quite a customs union, albeit with some common market features,2 may muddle through much like the ASEAN 2020 vision enunciated at the 1998 ASEAN summit, in the absence of resolute political will. ASEAN's geographic and buffer value between a rising China and an eclipsing Japan has nonetheless attracted FTA offers from Australia and New Zealand (which constitute a Common Eco nomic Relations, or CER, partnership between themselves), Japan, India, and the United States.3

Obesity in Asia: prevalence and issues in assessment methodologies

The dramatic changes in the lifestyle of many Asian communities, and the resultant changes in the food and nutrition issues facing the communities in the region have been documented by various investigators. Health authorities and researchers have given greater attention to the problem of overweight and obesity. Available data are lacking, but various estimates have indicated that the emerging problem of overweight amongst children cannot be ignored. Estimates of overweight by the World Health Organization (WHO) amongst preschool children in Asia in 1995 was around 2.9%. Data extracted from selected studies in individual Asian countries show much higher prevalences, ranging from 5% to 9% amongst several urban cities in Asia. In several other developing countries in the region, the prevalence is probably very low, with prevalences of less than 1%. There is thus considerable variation in this prevalence amongst the various countries. The problem of increasing overweight and obesity amongst adults in Asia has been highlighted for more than a decade. The database on the extent of the problem is far from being comprehensive, but various studies have pointed out the severity of the problem. Various reports in the 1990s have pointed out prevalences of overweight of over 20% and obesity of over 5% amongst urban population groups of the more developed countries in the region. It is also to be noted that there are also reports indicating that the most affluent societies in the region, such as Seoul and Tokyo, did not have the highest prevalence of overweight. There are also data on increasing prevalence of overweight among rural areas in the last 10 years. The situation for children is similar: there is considerable variation in the severity of the problem. In the Philippines National Surveys, for example, slightly lower prevalences have been reported. Countries in the region will continue to progress, accompanied by continued changes in lifestyle of communities. It is therefore of utmost importance to continue to monitor the nutritional status of communities. The lack of nationally representative data which is regularly updated is a major concern. The lack of data for certain age groups such as the adolescents and the elderly need to be addressed. One of the main obstacles in the formulation and effective implementation of intervention programs in developing countries is the lack of comprehensive data on the extent of the problems in many cases and the causes of such problems specific to the communities concerned. In addition to the lack of good data, other concerns too need to be addressed. These include methodological issues such as the need for harmonization of methods in assessment of nutritional status for the various groups, the appropriateness of criteria for cut‐offs, growth reference to be used, and association of overweight and obesity with comorbidities.

AFTA and India's Relative Tariff Disadvantage

Tariffs on intra-ASEAN trade are reduced under the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) Scheme for ASEAN Free Trade Association (AFTA). As a result of AFTA agreement some of India's export items that are imported by the individual ASEAN countries both from India and the rest of the ASEAN might be affected. Here in this study an attempt has been made to find out the possible impact of AFTA tariff reduction on India's exports. The results show that the percentage of export values is substantial in the 5-10 per cent tariff disadvantage slab for all the four ASEAN countries included in our sample. The study also reveals that about 33 per cent and 64 per cent of India's exports to Indonesia and Thailand respectively face more than 20 per cent tariff disadvantage range. However, a larger proportion (41%) of India's export to Malaysia falls in the category of 0-5 per cent tariff disadvantage slab. More than 50 per cent of India's exports to Philippines face a tariff disadvantage range of 10-15 per cent.

An empirical analysis of the factors determining the financial crisis in Asia

This article tests a hypothesis that the causes of the Asian financial crisis are weaknesses in the balance sheet of financial institutions, high international interest rates, high short-term external debts, excessive loans, and continuing large current account deficits. It also tests a hypothesis regarding the determination of nonperforming bank loans. Empirical tests are carried out with panel data on seven countries in Asia—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand—for the 1995 through 1997 period. The 3-month LIBOR interest rate and nonperforming loan rates of banks are found to be the major determinants of the Asian financial crisis. The nonperforming bank loan ratios are explained by the corporate leverage ratio. In addition, both the corporate high leverage ratio and LIBOR interest rates are found to significantly affect the outcome of the Asian crisis. Lowering world interest rates and taking the measures of individual Asian countries to reduce nonperforming assets and debt-to-equity ratios would be very effective in preventing reoccurrence of the crisis.

An Analysis of the Asian Crisis by a Capital-Linked Multicountry Model

Where the causes of the Asian financial crisis are concerned , we believe that a structural accumulation of trade deficits is a more fundamental cause than a failure of financial controls. Among Asian countries that are targets of international arbitrage, chronic trade deficits have led to a shortage of foreign currency reserves, making it impossible for such countries to prop up their own currency through buying . Thus, forecasting future movements in these structural trade deficits has relevance to forecasting the course of the currently depressed exchange rates. Predicted results produced by the Kyoto University Pacific Rim Econometric Model maintained by the author reveal an overall stabilization and moderate improvement in the real exchange rates of the Asian currencies. Using the same model, we investigated the effects of capital flight on individual Asian countries, based on a theory that a rise in productivity in the U.S. attracts capital, which has a negative effect on several other countries. Results indicated that the ASEAN countries' crisis will not continue in the long run, and that the crisis in South Korea should be seen as the origin of an overall decline in the rate of growth.

Sectoral Specialization and Competitive Advantage: Hong Kong Investments in the ASEAN Region

Foreign direct investment has been a critical component of the remarkable growth of ASEAN countries in recent years. There is, however, a clear link between the sectoral specialization of foreign investment and the competitive advantage of host ASEAN countries. Using unpublished secondary data on Hong Kong investments in the ASEAN region, this article addresses this important topic which is usually overlooked in the existing literature. It argues that Hong Kong investments tend to specialize in different economic sectors of host ASEAN countries. This sectoral bias of Hong Kong investments results in a regional division of investment that largely conforms to the competitiveness of individual ASEAN countries. Some implications for host ASEAN countries are also discussed in this article.