Indirect Losses Research Articles

Analysis of Special Consequences and Losses of Equipment Accident in Thermal Power Plant

Many types of equipment in the thermal power plant has special risks. Once a safety accident occurs, it often causes special consequences and losses. The indirect losses are difficult to calculate in general due to the special property. In this paper, a calculation model was proposed, considering collateral production impact on upstream and downstream industries, the inconvenience impact on people’s electricity and gas supply, and social security panic by rapidly spreading to media and public opinion. An example of a main steam pipe burst accident in a thermal power plant was analysed. The ratio of indirect economic losses and direct economic losses was obtained. Results showed that the ratio value (35.4) was much higher than the value (4) of general industrial accident loss. The ratio value maybe even much higher if the internal medium of special equipment has strong toxic and harmful effects. It is quite important to make concerted efforts to manufacture, usage, management, inspection, safety monitoring, and scientific supervision, in order to detect and eliminate hidden dangers early and ensure the safe operation of special equipment.

Pixel-Level Kernel Estimation for Blind Super-Resolution

Throughout the past several years, deep learning-based models have achieved success in super-resolution (SR). The majority of these works assume that low-resolution (LR) images are ‘uniformly’ degraded from their corresponding high-resolution (HR) images using predefined blur kernels — all regions of an image undergoing an identical degradation process. Furthermore, based on this assumption, there have been attempts to estimate the blur kernel of a given LR image, since correct kernel priors are known to be helpful in super-resolution. Although it has been known that blur kernels of real images are non-uniform (spatially varying), current kernel estimation algorithms are mostly done at image-level, estimating one kernel per image. These algorithms inevitably become sub-optimal in handling scenarios where an image is degraded non-uniformly. A divide-and-conquer form of approach, dividing an image into several patches for individual kernel estimation and SR can be a simple solution for this matter. Nevertheless, this approach fails in practice. In this paper, we address this issue by pixel-level kernel estimation. The three main components for training a SR framework based on pixel-level kernel estimation are as follows: Kernel Collage — a method for synthesizing non-uniformly degraded LR images, designed considering the coherency of kernels at neighboring regions while abruptly changing at times, the indirect loss — a novel loss for training the kernel estimator, based on the reconstruction loss, and an additional optimization — a scheme to robustify the SR network to minor errors in kernel estimations. Extensive experiments show the superiority of pixel-level kernel estimation in blind SR, surpassing state-of-the-art methods in terms of quantitative and qualitative results.

The role of tranexamic acid in decreasing intraoperative and postoperative blood loss in patients undergoing total hip replacement

We investigated 60 patients undergoing Total hip arthropasty in a prospective, interventional and randomized study. Here, patients were divided alternatively into two groups of 30 patients each, in group A and group B. Group A will receive intravenous infusion of tranexamic acid at dose of 15mg/kg and same will be given 3hrs after the first dose, while in group B no drug will be given. Direct and Indirect blood loss is calculated. Hence, direct blood loss is less (p value=0.000) in tranexamic group compared to control group i.e988 vs 1295 ml. Indirect blood loss, is also significantly lower in patients receiving drug as compared to placebo group. i.e (1018.87±160.76 vs 1335.2±194.4 ml)None of the patient in our study in either group developed any complication. In conclusion, we found Tranexamic acid, administrated before surgical incision, to be efficient in reducing Direct and Indirect blood loss during Total hip arthroplasty.Thus, we conclude that Tranexamic acid administration is an effective, safe and cheap method for reducing total blood loss, drain output, and hemoglobin drop without any increase in thromboembolic complications.

The features of the USSR population reproduction in 1920–1930 in the demographic stability parameters

The 1932–1933 Holodomor genocide caused a significant reduction of the population and distorted the main parameters of the country’s demographic stability. To analyze the changes in the population by the longitudinal analysis method, the survival rates are calculated for age groups of the population in the intercensal periods. Calculations based on the data of 1926 and 1939 censuses show substantial inconsistencies in the survival rate for five female age groups within the range of 33-57 years old. Despite the 1932–1933 demographic catastrophe and taking into account the natural mortality before and after the Holodomor, the number of people in these age categories changed slightly and even increased for the 43-47 category. The authors prove that migration in the intercensal period couldn’t have caused such growth, and the calculated coefficients confirm the questionable quality of the 1939 census. The paper reveals that the first stage of demographic transition should have been in 1932–1933, yet historical-political and socio-economic conditions of demographic reproduction aggravated considerably in early 1930. The recovery of the high birth rate in 1937–1938 shows that the first stage of demographic transition wasn’t finalized. Calculation of the number of women in the most active childbirth age and analysis of birth rate for 1924–1929 shows that in 1930–1933, the birth rate should have increased. The calculated indirect demographic losses account 310,000-430,000 annually for 1930, 1931, 1937, and 1938, and from 630,000 to 1 million for 1932–1936. Such insignificant volume of indirect losses substantially reduced demographic stability, in the first place of Ukrainian village. The incomplete and questionable nature of demographic data after 1932 does not allow complete reconstruction of the demographic reproduction processes in the USSR in the 1930s. Archive data on the natural movement of the population on lover administrative-territorial levels, current statistical recordings, and recordings of the civil status acts on birth and mortality, etc. can be the perspective sources of demographic information.

СТРУКТУРА ИЗБЫТОЧНОЙ СМЕРТНОСТИ, ОБУСЛОВЛЕННОЙ ПАНДЕМИЕЙ НОВОЙ КОРОНАВИРУСНОЙ ИНФЕКЦИИ, У ГОРОДСКИХ И СЕЛЬСКИХ ЖИТЕЛЕЙ

Significance. The pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection has further exacerbated the demographic problem in the Russian Federation, which was especially acute in rural areas. However, according to official data, only one third of the excess mortality in 2020 is accounted for by COVID-19. Purpose: to compare the structure of mortality growth in urban and rural residents and determine differences in loss associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and methods. Based on the Rosstat preliminary data, the author has analyzed increase in the number of deaths per 100,000 population in 2020 compared to 2019 among males and females residing in urban and rural areas of the Russian Federation. The indicators were compared by major classes of death causes and individual diseases across the following three age groups: 15-49 years, 50-64 years, and 65 years and older. Comparison was carried out by the Chi-square test. Results. Among the urban and rural population the death rate increased by 20.6% and 15.4%, respectively; the COVID-19 mortality equaled to 109.4 and 67.5 per 100,000 population; the share of COVID-19 in the increased total mortality added up to 44.6% and 33.0%, respectively. Among urban residents, the frequency of deaths from COVID-19 in males exceeds the female one 1.8 times in population aged 15-49, 2.0 times in population aged 50-64 and 65 +; among rural residents, these values equal to 1.2, 1.4 and 1.8, respectively. Conclusion. In the structure of excess mortality associated with the spread of the novel coronavirus infection that accounted for almost one fifth of deaths in 2019, the share of direct loss due to COVID-19 is underestimated. The direct loss associated with co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus can be traced at the population level, starting from the age of 65 in males and 50 years in females, in case of deaths from diseases of the nervous system, coronary heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract and diseases of the pancreas. With a lower level of excess mortality among rural population, its quarter is accounted for by indirect loss due to the pandemic associated with the decreased access to medical care. In the structure of excess mortality among urban population, indirect loss accounts for about one tenth, and is mainly due to consequences of stress associated with the pandemic and forced isolation. Signs of incomplete examination of the deceased in older age groups to determine the death causes, especially among rural residents, have been identified.

Seal-induced losses and successful mitigation using Acoustic Harassment Devices in Estonian Baltic trap-net fisheries

During the last decades the number of grey seals Halichoerus grypus has increased more than tenfold in the Baltic Sea. having reached 38 000 in 2019, which has created increasing problems to the coastal fisheries. In the current study, 151 Estonian coastal fishermen were interviewed to sum all direct and indirect monetary losses. The total cost of the damage caused by seals to the Estonian fisheries was around 0.9 million euros in 2009. With the aim of mitigating seal impact, Acoustic Harassment Devices (AHDs, Lofitech) were tested. This study presents quantitative data on seal damage in Estonian trap-net fisheries and analyses the results of the attempts made to mitigate the damage by means of AHDs. It can be concluded that AHDs provided sufficient protection against the seal attacks.

The IMPact of UntReated NOn-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation on Short-TErm clinical and economic outcomes in the US Medicare population: the IMPROVE-AF model

Background Despite treatment guidelines recommending the use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and moderate to high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥1), many patients remain untreated. A study conducted among Medicare beneficiaries with AF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥2 found that 51% of patients were not prescribed an OAC despite being eligible for treatment. When left untreated, NVAF poses an enormous burden to society, as stroke events are estimated to cost the US healthcare system about $34 billion each year in both direct medical costs and indirect productivity losses. This research explored the short-term clinical implications and budget impact (BI) of increasing OAC use among Medicare beneficiaries with NVAF. Methods A decision-analytic model was developed from the payer and societal perspectives to estimate the impact of increasing treatment rates among Medicare-eligible NVAF patients with a moderate-to-high risk of stroke over 1 year. Results of the model compared (1) a base case scenario using literature-derived rates of OAC use, and (2) a hypothetical scenario assuming an absolute 5% increase in overall OAC use. Clinical outcomes included the incremental annual number of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and gastrointestinal bleeding events, and stroke-related deaths. Economic outcomes included incremental annual and per-member per-month (PMPM) direct medical costs for the payer perspective and the incremental sum of annual direct medical and indirect costs from productivity loss and caregiver burden for the societal perspective. Results In total, 1.95 million Medicare patients with NVAF were estimated to be treated with OACs in the base case (3.8% of beneficiaries). In the hypothetical scenario analysis, nearly 200,000 more patients were treated resulting in 3,705 fewer ischemic strokes, 14 fewer gastrointestinal bleeds, 141 more hemorrhagic strokes, and 175 fewer deaths. The total incremental BI was $399.16 million ($0.65 PMPM) from the payer perspective and $377.10 million from the societal perspective due to indirect cost savings ($22.06 million). Conclusion Our findings suggest that increased overall OAC use has a positive clinical benefit on the annual number of ischemic stroke events and deaths avoided in the Medicare population, while maintaining a modest increase in the overall BI to the Medicare system.

A Case Study on the Disease Burden and Influencing Factors of Imported Malaria Patients in a County-Level Hospital - Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, 2016-2019.

What is already known on this topic?Imported malaria cases endanger people’s health and potentially cause local re-transmission, and they may also cause economic loss on patients’ families and society as a whole.What is added by this report?This is the first report to focus on the disease burden of a case study incurred by the imported malaria. The results indicated that the median direct medical cost was 2,904.4 CNY and the median indirect cost was 242.0 CNY for a patient’s hospitalization. The economic cost was related to age, time between onset and diagnosis, and days of stay in hospital.What are the implications for public health practice?This study analyzed the main causes based on both direct and indirect economic loss of imported malaria cases to provide general information for the evaluation of the disease burden of imported malaria patients and shed light on the rational allocation of medical resources.

Modelling of coastal area management based on climate change adaptation in Bengkulu City

Climate change has had an impact on the environment and society In Indonesia. Delay in adaptation efforts will result in direct and indirect economic losses in 2100 of 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Climate change indicators such as surface temperature, rainfall (CH), sea surface temperature (SPL), sea level (TML), extreme climate events (ENSO, IOD/DMI, PIO/IPO), and extreme weather events (heavy rains, strong winds), and storm surges) will have potential impacts on related fields in the national development system, both in terms of economy, livelihoods, ecosystems, and special areas. Another impact is the increasing frequency of hydrometereological disasters. This study focuses on the vulnerability of coastal areas using multiple decision-making methods and geographic information systems and remote sensing. The relationship between demography and climate change is carried out through literature review and observation. Observations were made in 19 sub-districts An appropriate strategy is needed to adapt to vulnerabilities, especially in coastal areas.

Negative impacts of mining on Neotropical freshwater fishes

Abstract Mining activities have significantly affected the Neotropical freshwater ichthyofauna, the most diverse in the world. However, no study has systematized knowledge on the subject. In this review, we assembled information on the main impacts of mining of crude oil, gold, iron, copper, and bauxite on aquatic ecosystems, emphasizing Neotropical freshwater fishes. The information obtained shows that mining activities generate several different disturbances, mainly via input of crude oil, metals and other pollutants, erosion and siltation, deforestation, and road construction. Mining has resulted in direct and indirect losses of fish diversity in several Neotropical waterbodies. The negative impacts on the ichthyofauna may change the structure of communities, compromise entire food chains, and erode ecosystem services provided by freshwater fishes. Particularly noteworthy is that mining activities (legal and illegal) are widespread in the Neotropics, and often located within or near protected areas. Actions to prevent and mitigate impacts, such as inspection, monitoring, management, and restoration plans, have been cursory or absent. In addition, there is strong political pressure to expand mining; if – or when – this happens, it will increase the potential of the activity to further diminish the diversity of Neotropical freshwater fishes.

Ethical Principles Underlying the Assessment of Indirect Losses Due to Earthquakes

The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cost is minimized, including the initial cost as well as the damage costs caused by earthquakes, which include indirect costs. One of these costs is concerned with how much society is willing to invest for preserving human life. Ethical principles, on which to base the assessment of this cost, are presented and discussed in this work. Individual and social values are analyzed. Finally, an optimal seismic design coefficient with the results obtained is calculated for a site with low seismicity.

Simplified Indirect Loss Characterization for the Seismic Risk Assessment of Roadway Bridge Networks

Simplified Indirect Loss Characterization for the Seismic Risk Assessment of Roadway Bridge Networks

Fragmentation of production amplifies systemic risks from extreme events in supply-chain networks.

Climatic and other extreme events threaten the globalized economy, which relies on increasingly complex and specialized supply-chain networks. Disasters generate (i) direct economic losses due to reduced production in the locations where they occur, and (ii) to indirect losses from the supply shortages and demand changes that cascade along the supply chains. Firms can use inventories to reduce their risk of shortages. Since firms are interconnected through the supply chain, the level of inventory hold by one firm influences the risk of shortages of the others. Such interdependencies lead to systemic risks in supply chain networks. We introduce a stylized model of complex supply-chain networks in which firms adjust their inventory to maximize profit. We analyze the resulting risks and inventory patterns using evolutionary game theory. We report the following findings. Inventories significantly reduce disruption cascades and indirect losses at the expense of a moderate increase in direct losses. The more fragmented a supply chain is, the less beneficial it is for individual firms to maintain inventories, resulting in higher systemic risks. One way to mitigate such systemic risks is to prescribe inventory sizes to individual firms-a measure that could, for instance, be fostered by insurers. We found that prescribing firm-specific inventory sizes based on their position in the supply chain mitigates systemic risk more effectively than setting the same inventory requirements for all firms.

Resilience-based methodologies for design of steel structures equipped with dissipative devices

In recent decades, numerous contributions have made it possible to implement seismic risk analysis in terms of resilience in order assessing direct and indirect losses both in a short and long-term perspective and in relation to the recovery capacity of buildings. Quantitative approaches to resilience typically require to extend the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering, PBEE, risk analysis framework introducing damage consequences for each relevant component (i.e. structural and non-structural elements, equipment) of the building layout in terms of recovery procedures and the respective times and economic and non-economic efforts. Resilience analysis methodologies can differ from each other for the level of information available in relation to the components of the building and the characterization of their seismic behavior. Refined analysis typically needs an amount of information hardly available in a short time, in which a simplified methodology based on less information required and less algorithm complexity can be more advantageous.The present work aims at investigating the effects of using two resilience analysis methodologies, based on different level of information, for the design optimization of a seismic dissipative system for office six-floor building with steel structure. Dissipative system consists in special braces-frames connections with replaceable energy dissipation elements (they are therefore called DRDs - Dissipative Replaceable Devices). Different structural solutions, defined from different geometrical and mechanical setting combination for devices, were considered. For both methodologies, simulation-based procedure were developed in order to collect best design solutions in terms of resilience behaviour.The two methodologies, named DEEP and RAPID, respectively the refined and the simplified ones, differ in the type of modelling, structural analysis, seismic input, damage models and consequences and extension of evaluable scenarios field. Although they are not completely and directly comparable due to the aforementioned differences, it has been possible to find similarities that confirm the mutual reliability of the two methodologies and give indications on their use.

An analysis of wildlife strikes to aircraft in Brazil: 2011-2018

Purpose: Aircraft accidents due to wildlife hazards have become a growing safety and economic problem to the Brazilian and international aviation industries. These safety occurrences have resulted in significant direct and indirect economic losses as well injuries and fatalities worldwide. The purpose of this study was to develop empirical information obtained from the analysis of wildlife strike and aircraft operations data in Brazil that could be used for accident prevention efforts.Design/methodology: The research team collected and analyzed aircraft operations as well as wildlife strike data from the 32 busiest commercial airports in Brazil, from 2011 through 2018. Researchers obtained the number of aircraft operations at each of those 32 Brazilian airports from the Brazilian air traffic operations annual reports published by the Air Traffic Control Department. Wildlife strike data from the studied airports were obtained from the Brazilian national wildlife strike database. Descriptive data analysis was adopted to provide an intuitive and overall trend of wildlife strikes at and the 32 busiest commercial airports in Brazil.Findings: Results indicate that the number of wildlife strikes at and around the investigated airports increased 70% even though the number of aircraft operations at these airports declined by 12% during the period studied. Birds were involved in 88% of the reported events. Most reported strikes (59%) and damaging strikes (39%) occurred during the arrival phases-of-flight. Most (33%) strikes were reported by airport personnel. A finding of concern was that the majority of wildlife strikes (97%) and damaging wildlife strikes (96%) occurred within the airport environment.Originality/value: The current project contributes to the safety management of wildlife hazards in Brazil by conducting a comprehensive analysis of wildlife strike and aircraft operations data (2011-2018) in the 32 busiest Brazilian commercial airports.

When energy efficiency goes out the window: How highly insulated buildings contribute to energy-intensive ventilation practices in Germany

Many national and international climate goals focus on lowering resource consumption in the building sector. In Germany, this is attempted in large part through increasing the thermal insulation of buildings, in order to achieve average room temperatures of 19 °C with as little heating energy as possible. However, research on the Energy Performance Gap shows that predicted heating-energy savings are seldom reached. Based on a case study conducted in six energy-efficient multi-apartment buildings in Southern Germany, we offer an explanation rooted in practice theory: There appears to be a mismatch between households’ practices and the building’s properties. While households have diverse and changing temperature needs, and a desire for quick adaptation, the energy-efficient building provides homogenous temperatures and slow temperature change. This leads households to open windows often and for long periods of time in order to reach their thermal comfort needs – even in the height of winter. The direct and indirect losses of heating energy from the observed ventilation practices can contribute to the Energy Performance Gap of energy-efficient buildings. If energy-efficient building regulations incorporated more realistic assumptions about household practices, the building designs could become more adequate and the estimated energy savings more realistic, potentially reducing the magnitude of Energy Performance Gaps.

Criticality analysis of a country’s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model

Building resilience against shocks has become a pillar of sustainability. By understanding how the different components of an economy interact in times of crisis, we can design resilience strategies that go beyond building walls or dams. We formulate an original agent-based model to explore a crucial pathway through which a disaster affects the economy: the transport–supply chain nexus. The model simulates the behaviour of firms facing transport and supply disruptions and estimates the resulting indirect losses. As an illustration, the model is used to assess the criticality of Tanzanian roads, which are vulnerable to floods. We report three main results. First, the model generates maps that identify the transport infrastructure assets that are most critical for specific supply chains: roads that are most important for food security are different from those supporting international trade, for instance. Second, economic losses from transport disruptions increase non-linearly with the duration of disruptions, highlighting the benefit from fast repairs. Third, by combining economic and transport modelling, we can consider a broader spectrum of interventions. Beyond strengthening the transport system, it is also possible to make supply chains more resilient to disruption with, for instance, sourcing decisions or inventory management. Assessing the performance of an economy in times of crisis is a difficult task. This study presents an agent-based model capturing the behaviour of firms facing transport and supply disruptions due to natural disasters, and shows possible paths to reinforce infrastructure and supply chain resilience.

Sustainable city and effects on it of natural hazard: Design by gamification

With this study we want to go deeper into the design and management of cities, as well as their sustainability. Similarly, we want to check the effects of different natural hazards in cities by carrying out simulations, using gamification. In order to do this, we start from the hypothesis that the material used, Cities: Skylines, could have potential both as a tool for territorial planning and in the Analysis and Management of Natural Hazards. To confirm this hypothesis, a series of variables will be handled, such as the sustainable city that we are going to build and the measures that will be established to prevent or minimize the impacts produced by natural damage. In this sense, in order for our city to achieve sustainability, these measures must be effective in comparison with another city that does not contemplate them, in which we assume that the losses will be greater in the face of the same catastrophe. To justify this study, we start from the evidence that the current human population settlements present an unsustainable model, to a greater or lesser extent. Due to this, numerous authors have studied the impacts produced by these settlements on the environment, as well as new models that mitigate, as far as possible, these impacts, thus paving the way for the current unsustainability. This is a current issue, which is demonstrated by the approval in 2015 of the Agenda 2030 on sustainable development by the United Nations Organization, which has 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Of these, we have focused on the eleventh because it is more relevant to our work, as it aims to make urban agglomerations inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. In the goals of this ODS we can see that one of its purposes is to make cities resilient and resistant to natural hazards. This can be justified by the approximately 90,000 deaths per year that they cause, in addition to direct losses of property and indirect losses of goods and services and some intangible losses. Bearing this in mind, the need for actions to prevent, minimize or repair these damages caused by natural hazards is more than notable, as is the importance of our study. Keywords: Urban sustainability, Natural hazards, Gamification.

Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018

Recent increases in the frequency and scale of wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence of climate change and associated socioeconomic costs. In the western United States, the hazard of wildfire has been increasing for decades. Here, we use a combination of physical, epidemiological and economic models to estimate the economic impacts of California wildfires in 2018, including the value of destroyed and damaged capital, the health costs related to air pollution exposure and indirect losses due to broader economic disruption cascading along with regional and national supply chains. Our estimation shows that wildfire damages in 2018 totalled $148.5 (126.1–192.9) billion (roughly 1.5% of California’s annual gross domestic product), with $27.7 billion (19%) in capital losses, $32.2 billion (22%) in health costs and $88.6 billion (59%) in indirect losses (all values in US$). Our results reveal that the majority of economic impacts related to California wildfires may be indirect and often affect industry sectors and locations distant from the fires (for example, 52% of the indirect losses—31% of total losses—in 2018 were outside of California). Our findings and methods provide new information for decision makers tasked with protecting lives and key production sectors and reducing the economic damages of future wildfires. The impacts of wildfires in the western United States have been increasing for decades. Combining physical, epidemiological and economic models, this study finds that the economic damage of California wildfires in 2018 was roughly 1.5% of California’s annual gross domestic product.

Near real-time prediction of wind-induced tree damage at a city scale: Simulation framework and case study for Tsinghua University campus

During typhoon events, wind damage to trees in urban areas may have various adverse impacts on urban functions and cause direct and indirect economic losses. To realize the near real-time prediction of wind damage to urban trees, this study proposes a high-efficiency simulation framework by coupling computational fluid dynamics and mechanistic tree damage modeling. The proposed framework involves four key steps: modeling effects of trees on urban airflow, constructing a scenario bank, near real-time predicting urban airflow, and simulating wind-induced tree damage. The accuracy and efficiency of the methods used in each step are validated. A real-world, complex urban area in Beijing, China, namely the Tsinghua University campus, is used as a case study to showcase the workflow. A user-friendly program, THU-NEWDRT, is developed to help managers efficiently evaluate the wind-induced damage risk of campus trees. Finally, a set of hypothetical strong wind events are used to exemplify the practicality of the proposed framework.