Indirect Land Research Articles

Advanced Biofuel Value Chains Sourced by New Cropping Systems With Low iLUC Risk

ABSTRACTIncreasing lignocellulosic feedstock for advanced biofuels can tackle the decarbonization of the transport sector. Dedicated biomass produced alongside food systems with low indirect land use change (iLUC) impact can broaden the feedstock availability, thus streamlining the supply chains. The objective of this study was the design and evaluation of advanced ethanol value chains for the Emilia‐Romagna region based on low iLUC feedstock. Two dedicated lignocellulosic crops (biomass sorghum and sunn hemp) were evaluated in double cropping systems alongside food crop residues (corn stover and wheat straw) as sources to simulate the value chains. A parcel‐level regional analysis was carried out, then the LocaGIStics2.0 model was used for the spatial design and review of the biomass delivery chain options regarding cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the different feedstock mixes. Literature data on bioethanol production from similar feedstocks were used to estimate yields, process costs, and GHG emissions of a biorefinery process based on these biomasses. Within the chain options, GHG emissions were overly sensitive to cultivation input, mostly N‐fertilization. This considered, GHG emissions resulted similar across different feedstock with straw/stover (averaging 13 g CO2eq MJ−1 fuel), sunn hemp (14 g CO2eq MJ−1 fuel), and biomass sorghum (16 g CO2eq MJ−1 fuel). On the other hand, the bioethanol produced from biomass sorghum (608 € Mg−1 of bioethanol) was cheaper compared with straw (632 € Mg−1), sunn hemp (672 € Mg−1), and stover (710 € Mg−1). The bioethanol cost ranged from 0.0017 to 0.020 € MJ−1 fuel depending on the feedstock, with operations and maintenance impacting up to 90% of the final cost. In summary, a single bioethanol plant with an annual capacity of 250,000 Mg of biomass could replace from 5% to 7% of the Emilia‐Romagna's ethanol fuel consumption, depending on the applied sourcing scenario.

Biomethane from manure in the RePowerEU: A critical perspective on the scale-up of renewable energy production from the livestock sector

With the RePowerEU plan the European Commission aims to boost biomethane production as part of its strategy for energy independence. Biomethane from manure is commonly considered as a circular solution that produces renewable energy, manages waste and reduces emissions. However, the intertwining of biomethane production with the livestock sector, one of the most impactful sectors in the EU and globally, is highly controversial, yet rarely discussed. In this Policy Perspective we argue how the reliance on manure as primary feedstock for biomethane is extending the EU's lock-in into unsustainable, business-as-usual livestock farming practices, replacing a natural gas dependency with an animal feed dependency from other continents, jeopardizing EU's strategic autonomy, while perpetuating neocolonial forms of extractivism. We highlight that such mechanisms are reinforced by blind spots in the Renewable Energy Directive emissions accounting standards which have overlooked the upstream impacts of biomethane production from manure, especially the ones in the Global South, obscuring the link between energy and food systems. These gaps contribute to rebound effects in indirect land use change and on-farm emissions, hindering environmental targets. Recommendations are provided to stimulate a critical discussion in which commonly held assumptions and narratives on biomethane production from manure are challenged.

Analysis of the ecological footprint of mining machines in the phase of material extraction and processing in LCA

Sustainability in the mining industry continues to be a challenge. Although there is research in this area, there are still no solutions supporting the assessment of environmental impact in this sector. Therefore, it is important to look for and conduct various types of analyses that will be useful in this area. Therefore, the objective of the research was to analyse the ecological footprint of mining machines in the first phase of the LCA life cycle (obtaining and extracting materials). The analysis was based on the example of a hydraulic actuator, which is considered crucial to control machines in the mining industry. The ecological footprint burdens analysed included direct and indirect land take, sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the use of nuclear energy. Life cycle assessment was carried out using the OpenLCA software with the ecoinvent v3.10 database. It has been shown that the largest amount of emissions occurs during off-site treatment of nonsulphide waste, cogeneration of heat and energy (hard coal), production of ferrochrome, high carbon, 68% Cr, and heat production in an industrial furnace using hard coal. It is proposed to carry out improvement activities that will first contribute to reducing the main environmental burdens. Then, it will be possible to significantly reduce the negative environmental impact of the hydraulic actuator's extraction and processing of materials. The results from the analysis may be useful not only for products from the mining industry but also in other areas of activity using this type of machine.

Visualising trade-related virtual urban land transfers in China

ABSTRACT As a type of environmental footprint, the concept of virtual land captures the indirect land use embedded in our consumption and trade activities. Utilising the environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model (EEMRIO) and Kaleidoscope diagram, we visualise for the first time the interprovincial flow of virtual urban land in China. It unveils the intricate urban network connections and the telecoupled interactions between human activities and land use amidst China's rapid urbanisation phase. The results indicate that the eastern region of China emerges as the primary net beneficiary of virtual urban land, whereas the western region stands as the principal net contributor. The local urban land in 65% of the provinces suffices for their own consumption demands. However, provinces like Zhejiang, Henan, and Jiangsu rely heavily on inter-provincial urban land to fulfil their consumption requirements. Inter-regional trade plays a pivotal role in facilitating the flow of land resources, significantly easing the strain between human demands and land availability in the developed coastal provinces of eastern China. Yet, it imposes additional ecological pressure on the more ecologically vulnerable areas in the west. The insights from this research are poised to offer valuable guidance for the Chinese government in harmonising urban development strategies, industrial distribution and the allocation of construction land on a national scale.

Life cycle assessment of hexanoic acid production via microbial electrosynthesis and renewable electricity: Future opportunities

Microbial electrosynthesis (MES) is a novel carbon utilisation technology aiming to contribute to a circular economy by converting CO2 and renewable electricity into value-added chemicals. This study presents a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) of hexanoic acid (C6A) production using MES, comparing this production with alternative technologies. It also includes a cradle-to-grave LCA for potentially converting C6A into a neat sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). On a cradle-to-gate basis, MES-based C6A exhibits a carbon footprint at 5.5 t CO2eq/tC6A, similar to fermentation- and plant-based C6A. However, its direct land use is more than one order of magnitude lower than plant-based C6A. On a cradle-to-grave basis, MES-based neat SAF emits 325 g CO2eq/MJ neat SAF, which is significantly higher than the counterparts from currently certified routes and conventional petroleum-derived jet fuel. However, its negligible indirect land use change emissions might potentially make it competitive against neat SAFs originating from first-generation biomass.

Farmers’ motivations to cultivate biomass for energy and implications

Bioenergy derived from agricultural biomass can contribute to meeting the rising demand for renewable energy. To estimate the agricultural sector's potential to contribute to bioenergy, it is crucial to understand what motivates farmers to increase agricultural feedstock production sustainably. Through eight semi-structured interviews and online surveys with 174 farmers in southern Sweden, we explore the barriers and incentives farmers perceive in starting or increasing feedstock production for energy purposes sustainably using production methods with a low risk of causing indirect land use change (iLUC). Among the most prominent barriers are low profitability, high-risk investments, and potential negative environmental consequences such as soil depletion. Higher market prices for plant residuals and energy crops, combined with more long-term and reliable subsidies that support investments in new machinery, facilities, and production systems, are major driving factors to increase feedstock production for bioenergy. The study found that the farmers see little potential in using marginal lands due to their low soil productivity and spatial characteristics. Further, the potential for intensifying biomass production on currently cropped land is also found to be limited due to risks of soil depletion and environmental degradation. Our study highlights that the potential of bioenergy production from underutilized land and intensive production in Scania may be overestimated, and realizing this potential in practice may require suitable policy changes.

Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices?

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between corn prices in Brazil and the international market, considering a rise in corn ethanol production in Brazil's Midwest region since 2017. Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices? A cointegration analysis was made with a monthly time series from May 2005 to August 2023 controlling for different exogenous events or shocks that may have affected global agricultural markets. The study's findings indicate a stable long‐term relationship between the international and Brazilian corn prices, with changes in international prices being predictors of variations in Brazilian domestic prices, while the opposite was not statistically supported. The study also found no evidence to support the claim that the entry of the corn ethanol industry into Mato Grosso state in 2017 impacted the prices paid to local producers. Therefore, the increase in Brazilian corn prices cannot be attributed to additional demand for corn by local mills, an important result that contributes to discussions such as food versus fuel and indirect land use change.

Camelina Intercropping with Pulses a Sustainable Approach for Land Competition between Food and Non-Food Crops

With increasing global attention toward the need for mitigating climate change, the transition to sustainable energy sources has become an essential priority. Introducing alternative oilseed crops, such as camelina (Camelina sativa L.), into intercropping systems with staple food crops can mitigate ILUC (indirect land use change) and their negative impact on biofuel production. The present study compared camelina + field pea intercropping (ICw + IP, winter sowing) and camelina + lentil intercropping (ICs + IL, spring sowing) with their respective single crops regarding weed control, soil coverage, yields, and camelina seed quality (1000-seed weight, oil, and fatty acid composition). The comparison between different cropping systems was conducted using a one-way ANOVA. Both intercropping improved weed control at an early stage but no differences in soil coverage were found. Camelina seed yield was negatively affected by the presence of peas, whereas the pulse was unaffected. Conversely, camelina seed yield was not affected when intercropped with lentils while lentils reduced their yield in the intercropping. Furthermore, when camelina was intercropped with lentils, a significant increase was reported in 1000-seed weight and α -linolenic acid (C18:3) compared with the sole-camelina. However, both intercropping systems had a land equivalent ratio (LER, based on total seed yield at maturity) higher than one. Defining the best combination of crops and the optimal sowing and harvesting settings remain key to increasing the adoption of intercropping systems by farmers.

‘Low ILUC-Risk’ as a Sustainability Standard for Biofuels in the EU

‘Low ILUC-Risk’ as a Sustainability Standard for Biofuels in the EU

Sustainable commodity sourcing requires measuring and governing land use change at multiple scales

AbstractThe increased availability of remote sensing products and new legislative agendas are driving a growing focus on farm‐level traceability and monitoring to tackle commodity‐driven deforestation. Here, we use data on land use change in Brazil (1985–2021) from Mapbiomas to demonstrate how analyses of the drivers of deforestation are sensitive to the scale of analysis: while pixel‐ or property‐level analyses identify proximate drivers of deforestation, analyses at larger scales (subnational regions or countries) capture more complex land use dynamics, including indirect land use change. We argue that initiatives which seek to monitor and address commodity‐driven deforestation—such as the European Union's deforestation due‐diligence regulation and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development's Greenhouse Gas Protocol—must be conscient of these wider land use dynamics. Only by measuring progress and defining success at multiple scales can initiatives for sustainable commodity sourcing create the right mix of incentives for addressing deforestation.

Environmental impact assessment of direct lithium extraction from brine resources: Global warming potential, land use, water consumption, and charting sustainable scenarios

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) has emerged as an alternative that bypasses lengthy evaporation processes to produce lithium from brine sources. This study scrutinizes both direct and indirect environmental impacts of DLE, specifically focusing on global warming, land use, and water consumption in Clayton Valley, Nevada. It was compared to traditional brine and hard rock extraction methods. The DLE method is closely tied to energy usage, and this study has explored various scenarios for power sources. The TRACI, ReCiPe, and AWARE methods of life cycle assessment were employed to evaluate the environmental footprint, indirect land use, and water footprint of lithium production from various sources. According to the study, producing one ton of lithium carbonate using the DLE method showed distinct emissions profiles. Specifically, when electricity was sourced from a diesel generator, the Nevada grid, or solar panels, the emissions totaled approximately 22, 17.3, and 7.6 tons of CO2eq, respectively. Switching power sources goes beyond affecting greenhouse gas emissions; it also influences land use impacts and individual water consumption, as evaluated in this study. The direct land use for DLE is as follows: 16, 493, 182, and 659 m²/ton of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) for processing plant, processing plant, well field, processing plant, solar panel area, and all regions required with solar panels, respectively. In assessing the water footprint, the study determined varying water deprivation potentials depending on the electricity source utilized: 3.7 m³eq/kg of LCE with a diesel generator, 9.5 m³eq/kg of LCE with the Nevada grid, and 4.2 m³eq/kg of LCE with solar panels.

Peatland restoration in Germany: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Drained peatland currently contributes 7.5% of Germany's total national greenhouse gas emissions. The National Peatland Protection Strategy adopted by the German government in 2022 recognizes that these emissions need to be reduced significantly to meet the country's climate change mitigation commitments. The present study employs a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts of alternative agriculture-focused peatland rewetting scenarios for Germany up to 2030. In contrast to partial-analytic approaches, the global general equilibrium approach allows to take consistent account of economic ripple-on effects and carbon leakage effects triggered by peatland rewetting. The results suggest that in the medium term towards 2030 a reduction in annual emissions from agricultural peatland use by up to 45% are attainable at marginal private abatement costs between 27 and 61 Euro/tCO2e. Carbon leakage effects due to induced indirect land use change in Germany and the rest of the European Union reduce the global net emission reduction impact by 0.7 to 1.0% of the direct emission reduction. The effects on food prices remain small in all scenarios. In conclusion, a sizable reduction of Germany's land-use-related emissions is achievable at a low macroeconomic cost by moving beyond the moderate ambitions of the National Peatland Restoration Strategy.

Bioenergy in Europe is unlikely to make a timely contribution to climate change targets

Increasing bioenergy production is a significant component of European efforts to mitigate climate change, but has contested potential for reducing emissions. We use an integrated land system model to explore the effects of large-scale bioenergy production within the European Union on carbon balances. We find that increased bioenergy crop production is likely to cause substantial deforestation and a commensurate loss of associated carbon stocks largely due to displacement of food production from other areas. Deforestation would occur either within the EU if European forests were not protected, or in other parts of the world arising from indirect land use change if European forests were protected. The net carbon benefit of bioenergy production is largely negative, or uncertain, even under the most optimistic levels of fossil fuel replacement, and will not offset initial carbon losses over the coming 50 yr. The growth of intensive agriculture required to satisfy the demand for bioenergy and food will have negative impacts on crucial ecosystem services. Overall, we identify substantial disadvantages to increasing bioenergy production relative to freeing land for natural succession. At best, large-scale bioenergy production is likely to be irrelevant to time-sensitive climate targets.

The Sustainability of Palm Oil

The most significant environmental issue associated with palm oil that is accused by the European Union is deforestation, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia. The tension arose after the EU established Renewable Energy Directive II. EU considered palm oil-producing countries have ignored environmental issues by expanding palm oil plantations which has resulted in deforestation. This made palm oil plantations included in the high-risk Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) category. Therefore, this article presents a comparison of the sustainability between palm oil and other vegetable oils such as sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, etc. The findings of this article contextualize the comparative advantage of palm oil over other similar resources. The reasons why palm oil is more sustainable are it needs less land to produce the same amount of oil, its sustainability certification at the international level such as RSPO which is also connected to SDGs, and at the domestic level such as ISPO and MSPO. One strategy proposed in this article is instead of boycotting palm oil, the government and stakeholders should prioritize the implementation of sustainable practices, enhance the monitoring and enforcement of RSPO scheme standards, and tackle social concerns and deforestation that are always linked to palm oil.

Environmental consequences of shifting to timber construction: The case of Denmark

Many life cycle assessments (LCA) studies on wooden buildings show potential to decarbonise the building industry, though often neglecting to consider the systemic changes of such a shift at the building stock scale. This study applies a consequential LCA to evaluate the transition from conventional construction to increased wood-based construction in Denmark from 2022 to 2050. The assessment models a material flow analysis of the two construction scenarios, incorporating an area forecast and case buildings. By that, we assessed suppliers' capacity to likely meet the demand for wood, steel, and concrete, employed an input-output model to enhance completeness and country representativeness for other materials' markets, and considered the competition for land by indirect land use change. We implemented a dynamic IPCC-based assessment of GHG-emissions concurrently with a carbon forest model to anticipate the relationship between the delayed carbon storage resulting from using wood in buildings and forest regrowth management. The findings indicate wood construction is the most climate-friendly option for multifamily houses. In contrast, single-family houses (SFH) and office buildings (OB) exhibit the lowest climate impacts in the conventional scenario. The SFH result could be credible due to the sizable GWP impact gap between construction scenarios despite uncertainties related to the weight proportion of sedum roofs. The less conclusive OB findings relate to the substantial steel quantities in the wood case buildings, requiring further investigation. Generally, metals, cement-based- and biobased materials demonstrate the largest climate impact among the material categories. Across all three building typologies, the change to timber construction increased the impact on nature occupation (biodiversity). In conclusion, this study emphasises the need for further research on forest management model inputs, land use change approaches, potential steel suppliers' impact, and a broader array of case studies. It is because these are influential factors in facilitating informed decision-making of the increased implementation of wood in buildings. As the first study to integrate these modelling characteristics, it contributes to the research gap concerning geographical circumstances, forestry, and markets relevant to decision support for increased wood utilisation in Europe's building industry.

‘Because it matters’

AbstractBasic economic logic, which often simplifies assessments and explanations of agricultural policy issues, is vitally important in communicating with policy‐makers. Resources are limited, and there is a premium on getting decisions at least approximately right first time. Examples from southern Africa illustrate the importance of parity pricing, and its links to household food security (Lesotho), price risk, the emergence of an agricultural futures market, and its central role in allocating scarce agricultural resources (South Africa). Insights derived from an appreciation of parity pricing are relevant in other national contexts and also help explain how international grain markets operate. The parity pricing concept provides a framework for sense‐checking complicated debates relating to two issues that have been prominent in recent years; first, whether and to what extent speculation in futures markets has been a driver of agricultural price spikes, and second, how far indirect land use change (ILUC), triggered by the use of agricultural feedstocks to produce renewable energy, is a material issue. These issues are likely to be of heightened importance in the face of climate change. Each emphasises that agricultural economics matters, and that it matters that we get the economics right.

ІNFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR MODELING LAND PRICES UNDER THE URBANIZATION PROCESS

The dynamic shifts associated with urban growth or decline significantly influence both municipal and national economic policies. Urban expansion often necessitates substantial land resources allocation, whereas in regions with limited land availability or geographical restrictions, a innovative approach to urban planning is mandated. Key land value factors have been determined and classified. Each direct and indirect land prices key economic impact factor had been summarized and used to build information system model. Among these factors financial and economic data combined with geo-spatial information are considered the main input data sources for the digital information systems solution. An eight steps algorithm was constructed to enable information system output for economical assessment of land plot objects. The presented equations for economical assessment of a single land plot object can be used to calculate important parameters for the information system. Going one step further, a pyramid-shaped diagram denotes four stages of general economical valuation for prospective land object in context of investment opportunities. The price of each individual land slot can be efficiently calculated using an information system that relies upon pre-processed data, price impact factors and general land slot information. The findings underscore the necessity for adopting a more comprehensive approach towards the modeling of land prices in urbanized territories. This approach should adequately reflect the current delineation of urban and suburban boundaries, incorporate data pertinent to urban zones, and consider the spatial distribution of most significant industrial sites and business districts within larger urban zone (metropolitan region).

A Review of Trade-Offs in Low ILUC-Risk Certification for Biofuels—Towards an Integrated Assessment Framework

Indirect land use change (ILUC) is considered a significant challenge, resulting from an increasing demand for biomass and bioenergy. On a political level sustainability certification of biomass-derived products is discussed as one potential instrument to manage the risk of ILUC. However, extending existing schemes towards a credible and reliable certification approach to account for ILUC-risks is still an open challenge. To develop such a certification instrument, so-called “additionality practices” are gaining relevance. Such practices include measures that an individual producer can adopt to provide an amount of biomass in addition to the business-as-usual feedstock production. This applies in particular to the certification of low ILUC-risk biofuels through voluntary certification schemes recognised by the European Commission. To date, however, no studies have been conducted that examine how such schemes account for potential trade-offs that may arise from the use of additionality practices. In preparation of an integrated assessment framework for low ILUC-risk certification, this study presents a gap analysis that examines whether such trade-offs are considered already in existing sustainability certification schemes for biofuels. In this way, we have found trade-offs that are preferentially addressed by the schemes, e.g., biodiversity loss, on the one hand, and considerable gaps for certain trade-offs, e.g., resource depletion, on the other. In addition, we identified biomass cultivation on unused land as the most promising additionality practice. Most schemes already have certification instruments in place to verify the large number of trade-offs that could be identified as preferentially addressed for this additionality practice. Moreover, only a few new criteria and indicators need to be developed for the small number of gaps found for biomass cultivation on unused land. Finally, this paper recommends future work to verify the scientific evidence of existing certification instruments for the trade-offs addressed and to develop assessment approaches for the identified gaps.

Automatic image segmentation model for indirect land use change with deep convolutional neural network

Automatic image segmentation model for indirect land use change with deep convolutional neural network

The Carbon Footprint of a 5000-Milking-Head Dairy Operation in Central Texas

Texas is the third-largest milk-producing state in the U.S., with Central Texas being the second-largest milk-producing region in Texas. The average size of a dairy herd in Texas is 1829 cows. In Central Texas alone, there are 88,000 dairy cows. However, there is a lack of environmental impact research for this region. The overall objective of this case study is to evaluate the net carbon and carbon equivalent balances for a large dairy operation in Central Texas. The dairy selected for this study has a herd size of 5000 milking cows. The data assumptions were made regarding the selected dairy’s performance and production for the 2021 production year. These data include herd size and management, milk production, crop production, feed purchases, and on-farm energy usage. The USDA-Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) was used to estimate the daily and annual greenhouse gas emissions and environmental footprint of the dairy by quantifying the operation’s carbon footprint based on its 2021 performance and management practices. Research outcomes identify and quantify sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced on the dairy farm. Additionally, the carbon footprint (CF) was determined by estimating the CO2 equivalents (CO2-eq) emitted or sunk from animal and manure emissions, direct and indirect land emissions, net biogenic and anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and the production of resource inputs. The results of this case study indicated that the carbon footprint (CF) of the 5000-milking-head dairy in Central Texas was 0.40 lb. of CO2 per lb. of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) when considering biogenic CO2 and 0.83 lb. of CO2 per lb. of FPCM without biogenic CO2.