Indirect Forcing Research Articles

Decrease in radiative forcing by organic aerosol nucleation, climate, and land use change

Organic nucleation is an important source of atmospheric aerosol number concentration, especially in pristine continental regions and during the preindustrial period. Here, we improve on previous simulations that overestimate boundary layer nucleation in the tropics and add changes to climate and land use to evaluate climate forcing. Our model includes both pure organic nucleation and heteromolecular nucleation of sulfuric acid and organics and reproduces the profile of aerosol number concentration measured in the Amazon. Organic nucleation decreases the sum of the total aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing by 12.5%. The addition of climate and land use change decreases the direct radiative forcing (−0.38 W m−2) by 6.3% and the indirect radiative forcing (−1.68 W m−2) by 3.5% due to the size distribution and number concentration change of secondary organic aerosol and sulfate. Overall, the total radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols is decreased by 16%.

Climatology of Aerosol Optical Properties at Storm Peak Laboratory

ABSTRACT Aerosols create large uncertainty in the planetary energy balance due to both direct and indirect radiative forcing. Understanding aerosol seasonal patterns is essential for accurate climate change prediction, but mountain regions are often difficult for climate models to resolve. Therefore, long-term observations collected at high elevations are particularly useful. In-situ surface aerosol optical measurements were analyzed for the years 2011–2016 at a mountain site located in western Colorado and tied to potential sources based on relationships among the aerosol properties. The peak values for the scattering and absorption coefficients were observed during the summer, suggesting greater aerosol loading (likely due to wildfires), whereas the lowest values were observed during the winter, indicating cleaner conditions (due to less influence from the boundary layer). The scattering Angstrom exponent, a property that provides information about size distributions, revealed the predominance of coarse-mode particles during the spring, which is consistent with the presence of dust. The aerosols observed during the summer, however, were mostly composed of fine-mode particles. This increase in the fine fraction points to combustion, likely wildfires during the dry season (Hallar, 2015), as a source, which is further supported by the absorption Angstrom exponent dropping to its lowest value (close to 1) during the summer after exhibiting a slightly higher value (~1.3) during the spring. Schmeisser et al. (2017) suggests that, for in-situ aerosol, absorption Angstrom exponents larger than 1.5 may be indicative of dust if they are associated with low (< 1.3) scattering Angstrom exponents. The increase in combustion aerosols during the summer accompanied by high values for the single scattering albedo suggests that these aerosols underwent processing in the atmosphere before reaching Storm Peak Laboratory. These results are important for improving visibility and predicting future aerosol concentrations in the western U.S.

Upper tropospheric ice sensitivity to sulfate geoengineering

Abstract. Aside from the direct surface cooling that sulfate geoengineering (SG) would produce, investigations of the possible side effects of this method are still ongoing, such as the exploration of the effect that SG may have on upper tropospheric cirrus cloudiness. The goal of the present study is to better understand the SG thermodynamical effects on the freezing mechanisms leading to ice particle formation. This is undertaken by comparing SG model simulations against a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) reference case. In the first case, the aerosol-driven surface cooling is included and coupled to the stratospheric warming resulting from the aerosol absorption of terrestrial and solar near-infrared radiation. In a second SG perturbed case, the surface temperatures are kept unchanged with respect to the reference RCP4.5 case. When combined, surface cooling and lower stratospheric warming tend to stabilize the atmosphere, which decreases the turbulence and updraft velocities (−10 % in our modeling study). The net effect is an induced cirrus thinning, which may then produce a significant indirect negative radiative forcing (RF). This RF would go in the same direction as the direct effect of solar radiation scattering by aerosols, and would consequently influence the amount of sulfur needed to counteract the positive RF due to greenhouse gases. In our study, given an 8 Tg-SO2 yr−1 equatorial injection into the lower stratosphere, an all-sky net tropopause RF of −1.46 W m−2 is calculated, of which −0.3 W m−2 (20 %) is from the indirect effect on cirrus thinning (6 % reduction in ice optical depth). When surface cooling is ignored, the ice optical depth reduction is lowered to 3 %, with an all-sky net tropopause RF of −1.4 W m−2, of which −0.14 W m−2 (10 %) is from cirrus thinning. Relative to the clear-sky net tropopause RF due to SG aerosols (−2.1 W m−2), the cumulative effect of the background clouds and cirrus thinning accounts for +0.6 W m−2, due to the partial compensation of large positive shortwave (+1.6 W m−2) and negative longwave adjustments (−1.0 W m−2). When surface cooling is ignored, the net cloud adjustment becomes +0.8 W m−2, with the shortwave contribution (+1.5 W m−2) almost twice as much as that of the longwave (−0.7 W m−2). This highlights the importance of including all of the dynamical feedbacks of SG aerosols.

Sensitivity Study of Anthropogenic Aerosol Indirect Forcing through Cirrus Clouds with CAM5 Using Three Ice Nucleation Parameterizations

Quantifying the radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions especially through cirrus clouds remains challenging because of our limited understanding of aerosol and cloud processes. In this study, we investigate the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) through cirrus clouds using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a state-of-the-art treatment of ice nucleation. We adopt a new approach to isolate anthropogenic AIF through cirrus clouds in which ice nucleation parameterization is driven by prescribed pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) aerosols, respectively. Sensitivities of anthropogenic ice AIF (i.e., anthropogenic AIF through cirrus clouds) to different ice nucleation parameterizations, homogeneous freezing occurrence, and uncertainties in the cloud microphysics scheme are investigated. Results of sensitivity experiments show that the change (PD minus PI) in global annual mean longwave cloud forcing (i.e., longwave anthropogenic ice AIF) ranges from 0.14 to 0.35 W m–2, the change in global annual mean shortwave cloud forcing (i.e., shortwave anthropogenic ice AIF) from –0.47 to –0.20 W m–2, and the change in net cloud forcing from –0.12 to 0.05 W m–2. Our results suggest that different ice nucleation parameterizations are an important factor for the large uncertainty of anthropogenic ice AIF. Furthermore, improved understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence characteristics of homogeneous freezing events and the mean states of cirrus cloud properties are also important for constraining anthropogenic ice AIF.

Evolution in physiochemical and cloud condensation nuclei activation properties of crop residue burning particles during photochemical aging.

As a main form of biomass burning in agricultural countries, crop residue burning is a significant source of atmospheric fine particles. In this study, the aging of particles emitted from the burning of four major crop residues in China was investigated in a smog chamber. The particle size distribution, chemical composition and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity were simultaneously measured. The properties of crop residue burning particles varied substantially among different fuel types. During aging, the particle size and mass concentration increased substantially, suggesting condensational growth by formation of secondary aerosols. The particle composition was dominated by organics. Aging resulted in considerable enhancement of organics and inorganics, with enhancement ratios of 1.24-1.44 and 1.33-1.76 respectively, as well as a continuous increase in the oxidation level of organics. Elevated CCN activity was observed during aging, with the hygroscopicity parameter κ varying from 0.16 to 0.34 for fresh particles and 0.19 to 0.40 for aged particles. Based on the volume mixing rule, the hygroscopicity parameter of organic components (κorg) was derived. κorg exhibited an increasing tendency with aging, which was generally consistent with the tendency of the O:C ratio, indicating that the oxidation level was related to the hygroscopicity and CCN activity of organic aerosols from crop residue burning. Our results indicated that photochemical aging could significantly impact the CCN activation of crop burning aerosols, not only by the production of secondary aerosols, but also by enhancing the hygroscopicity of organic components, thereby contributing to the aerosol indirect climate forcing.

Sensitivity of Homogeneous Ice Nucleation to Aerosol Perturbations and Its Implications for Aerosol Indirect Effects Through Cirrus Clouds

AbstractThe magnitude and sign of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cirrus clouds through ice nucleation are still very uncertain. In this study, aerosol sensitivity (ηα), defined as the sensitivity of the number concentration (Ni) of ice crystals formed from homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol number concentration (Na), is examined based on simulations from a cloud parcel model. The model represents the fundamental process of ice crystal formation that results from homogeneous nucleation. We find that the geometric dispersion (σ) of the aerosol size distribution used in the model is a key factor for ηα. For a monodisperse size distribution, ηα is close to zero in vertical updrafts (V &lt; 50 cm s−1) typical of cirrus clouds. However, ηα increases to 0.1–0.3 (i.e., Ni increases by a factor of 1.3–2.0 for a tenfold increase in Na) if aerosol particles follow lognormal size distributions with a σ of 1.6–2.3 in the upper troposphere. By varying the input aerosol and environmental parameters, our model reproduces a large range of ηα values derived from homogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations widely used in global climate models (GCMs). The differences in ηα from these parameterizations can translate into a range of anthropogenic aerosol longwave indirect forcings through cirrus clouds from 0.05 to 0.36 W m−2 with a GCM. Our study suggests that a larger ηα (0.1–0.3) is more plausible and the homogeneous nucleation parameterizations should include a realistic aerosol size distribution to accurately quantify anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects.

Investigating the Linear Dependence of Direct and Indirect Radiative Forcing on Emission of Carbonaceous Aerosols in a Global Climate Model

AbstractThe relationship between forcing and emission is investigated for black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (OC) emitted from North America and Asia. Direct and indirect radiative forcing (DRF and IRF) of BC and OC are simulated with CAM5.1. Two diagnostics are introduced to aid policy‐relevant discussions: linearity and emission‐normalized forcing. DRF is linearly related to emission for both BC and OC from two regions, and the linear relationship is similar, within 15%. IRF is linear in emissions when emissions are lower and regions are far from sources (North American BC and OC). Indirect radiative forcing is sublinear for strong sources and near‐source regions (Asian OC). Emission‐normalized IRF in North America is two to four times higher than that in Asia. The difference among regions and species is primarily caused by particle density as high density of BC results in fewer emitted particles and by the processes for accumulation mode particles to become cloud condensation nuclei and then to activate into cloud droplet. Lower emission‐normalized IRF in more polluted regions means that reductions of OC in these regions would be relatively climate‐neutral rather than causing significant warming via IRF reduction. An optimal aggregation area (30° × 30°) is identified for analysis of the forcing‐to‐emission relationship. For IRF, only 15–40% of the Earth's surface is significantly affected by an emission region, but forcing in these regions comprises most of the global impact. Emission‐normalized forcing can be used to estimate forcing changes due to emission reductions, as long as causes of nonlinearity are identified and considered.

Lifetimes, direct and indirect radiative forcing, and global warming potentials of ethane (C2H6), propane (C3H8), and butane (C4H10)

The atmospheric abundance of the non‐methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) ethane, propane, and butane increased during the industrial era. In addition to weak absorption and emission of longwave radiation, these gases influence the atmospheric radiative balance indirectly, mainly as precursors for ozone (O3), and through reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH), which leads to less OH and thereby longer atmospheric lifetime of methane (CH4). In this study, we have calculated lifetimes, direct and indirect radiative forcing (RF), and global warming potentials (GWPs) for the three compounds, using a self‐consistent methodology. Results show net RF per unit emission of 1.0, 0.9, and 0.6 mW m−2 (Tg year−1)−1 for ethane, propane, and butane, respectively. For all compounds, the direct effect is considerably smaller than the indirect effects (6% or less of the total). The indirect O3 and CH4 effects are approximately of the same magnitude. Net GWPs for a 100‐year time horizon are 10 for ethane and propane, and 7 for butane, whereof the direct GWPs are &lt;1 for all compounds. The net GWPs are generally higher than previous estimates, mainly because our calculations include emissions for a full year rather than one season. For the compounds studied here, 100‐year GWP values do not differ substantially between each compound, considering the large uncertainties involved, and this may indicate that using values representative for a lump of NMVOCs may be sufficient. However, the climate effects may differ more between NMVOC compounds other than alkanes, such as alkenes and aromatics.

Volcano and ship tracks indicate excessive aerosol-induced cloud water increases in a climate model.

Aerosol-cloud interaction is the most uncertain mechanism of anthropogenic radiative forcing of Earth's climate, and aerosol-induced cloud water changes are particularly poorly constrained in climate models. By combining satellite retrievals of volcano and ship tracks in stratocumulus clouds, we compile a unique observational dataset and confirm that liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosols are bidirectional, and on average the increases in LWP are closely compensated by the decreases. Moreover, the meteorological parameters controlling the LWP responses are strikingly similar between the volcano and ship tracks. In stark contrast to observations, there are substantial unidirectional increases in LWP in the Hadley Centre climate model, because the model accounts only for the decreased precipitation efficiency and not for the enhanced entrainment drying. If the LWP increases in the model were compensated by the decreases as the observations suggest, its indirect aerosol radiative forcing in stratocumulus regions would decrease by 45%.

Mechanism of SOA formation determines magnitude of radiative effects

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) nearly always exists as an internal mixture, and the distribution of this mixture depends on the formation mechanism of SOA. A model is developed to examine the influence of using an internal mixing state based on the mechanism of formation and to estimate the radiative forcing of SOA in the future. For the present day, 66% of SOA is internally mixed with sulfate, while 34% is internally mixed with primary soot. Compared with using an external mixture, the direct effect of SOA is decreased due to the decrease in total aerosol surface area and the increase of absorption efficiency. Aerosol number concentrations are sharply reduced, and this is responsible for a large decrease in the cloud albedo effect. Internal mixing decreases the radiative effect of SOA by a factor of >4 compared with treating SOA as an external mixture. The future SOA burden increases by 24% due to CO2 increases and climate change, leading to a total (direct plus cloud albedo) radiative forcing of -0.05 W m-2 When the combined effects of changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and land use are included, the SOA forcing is -0.07 W m-2, even though the SOA burden only increases by 6.8%. This is caused by the substantial increase of SOA associated with sulfate in the Aitken mode. The Aitken mode increase contributes to the enhancement of first indirect radiative forcing, which dominates the total radiative forcing.

Unveiling aerosol–cloud interactions – Part 1: Cloud contamination in satellite products enhances the aerosol indirect forcing estimate

Abstract. Increased concentrations of aerosol can enhance the albedo of warm low-level cloud. Accurately quantifying this relationship from space is challenging due in part to contamination of aerosol statistics near clouds. Aerosol retrievals near clouds can be influenced by stray cloud particles in areas assumed to be cloud-free, particle swelling by humidification, shadows and enhanced scattering into the aerosol field from (3-D radiative transfer) clouds. To screen for this contamination we have developed a new cloud–aerosol pairing algorithm (CAPA) to link cloud observations to the nearest aerosol retrieval within the satellite image. The distance between each aerosol retrieval and nearest cloud is also computed in CAPA. Results from two independent satellite imagers, the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), show a marked reduction in the strength of the intrinsic aerosol indirect radiative forcing when selecting aerosol pairs that are located farther away from the clouds (−0.28±0.26 W m−2) compared to those including pairs that are within 15 km of the nearest cloud (−0.49±0.18 W m−2). The larger aerosol optical depths in closer proximity to cloud artificially enhance the relationship between aerosol-loading, cloud albedo, and cloud fraction. These results suggest that previous satellite-based radiative forcing estimates represented in key climate reports may be exaggerated due to the inclusion of retrieval artefacts in the aerosol located near clouds.

Impacts of solar-absorbing aerosol layers on the transition of stratocumulus to trade cumulus clouds

Abstract. The effects of an initially overlying layer of solar-absorbing aerosol on the transition of stratocumulus to trade cumulus clouds are examined using large-eddy simulations. For lightly drizzling cloud the transition is generally hastened, resulting mainly from increased cloud droplet number concentration (Nc) induced by entrained aerosol. The increased Nc slows sedimentation of cloud droplets and shortens their relaxation time for diffusional growth, both of which accelerate entrainment of overlying air and thereby stratocumulus breakup. However, the decrease in albedo from cloud breakup is more than offset by redistributing cloud water over a greater number of droplets, such that the diurnal-average shortwave forcing at the top of the atmosphere is negative. The negative radiative forcing is enhanced by sizable longwave contributions, which result from the greater cloud breakup and a reduced boundary layer height associated with aerosol heating. A perturbation of moisture instead of aerosol aloft leads to a greater liquid water path and a more gradual transition. Adding absorbing aerosol to that atmosphere results in substantial reductions in liquid water path (LWP) and cloud cover that lead to positive shortwave and negative longwave forcings on average canceling each other. Only for heavily drizzling clouds is the breakup delayed, as inhibition of precipitation overcomes cloud water loss from enhanced entrainment. Considering these simulations as an imperfect proxy for biomass burning plumes influencing Namibian stratocumulus, we expect regional indirect plus semi-direct forcings to be substantially negative to negligible at the top of the atmosphere, with its magnitude sensitive to background and perturbation properties.

Sulfate geoengineering impact on methane transport and lifetime: results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Abstract. Sulfate geoengineering (SG), made by sustained injection of SO2 in the tropical lower stratosphere, may impact the CH4 abundance through several photochemical mechanisms affecting tropospheric OH and hence the methane lifetime. (a) The reflection of incoming solar radiation increases the planetary albedo and cools the surface, with a tropospheric H2O decrease. (b) The tropospheric UV budget is upset by the additional aerosol scattering and stratospheric ozone changes: the net effect is meridionally not uniform, with a net decrease in the tropics, thus producing less tropospheric O(1D). (c) The extratropical downwelling motion from the lower stratosphere tends to increase the sulfate aerosol surface area density available for heterogeneous chemical reactions in the mid-to-upper troposphere, thus reducing the amount of NOx and O3 production. (d) The tropical lower stratosphere is warmed by solar and planetary radiation absorption by the aerosols. The heating rate perturbation is highly latitude dependent, producing a stronger meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The net effect on tropospheric OH due to the enhanced stratosphere–troposphere exchange may be positive or negative depending on the net result of different superimposed species perturbations (CH4, NOy, O3, SO4) in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In addition, the atmospheric stabilization resulting from the tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming favors an additional decrease of the UTLS extratropical CH4 by lowering the horizontal eddy mixing. Two climate–chemistry coupled models are used to explore the above radiative, chemical and dynamical mechanisms affecting CH4 transport and lifetime (ULAQ-CCM and GEOSCCM). The CH4 lifetime may become significantly longer (by approximately 16 %) with a sustained injection of 8 Tg-SO2 yr−1 starting in the year 2020, which implies an increase of tropospheric CH4 (200 ppbv) and a positive indirect radiative forcing of sulfate geoengineering due to CH4 changes (+0.10 W m−2 in the 2040–2049 decade and +0.15 W m−2 in the 2060–2069 decade).

The Landscape–Atmosphere Continuum Determines Ecological Change in Alpine Lakes of SE Tibet

Remote alpine regions were considered to be largely unimpacted by anthropogenic disturbance, but it is now clear these areas are changing rapidly. It is often difficult to identify the causal processes underpinning ecological change because the main drivers (direct and indirect climate forcing, land use change and atmospheric deposition) are acting simultaneously. In addition, alpine landscapes are morphometrically complex with strong local environmental gradients creating natural heterogeneity which acts as a variable filter to climate and anthropogenic forcing, emphasizing the need for analyzing responses at multiple sites. The eastern margin of Tibet is a hotspot of global biodiversity and is affected by both atmospheric N and dust deposition, whereas regional climate warming is comparatively recent. Here we use 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment records from nine alpine lakes, and statistical measures of diatom ecological change (turnover and PCA axis 1 scores) to determine regional scale patterns in community response to global environmental change forcing over approximately the last 150 years. The study lakes showed contrasting ecological responses with increased nutrient input as the primary driver of change, mediated by lake morphology and catchment characteristics. Turnover rates of diatom composition, although low, are significantly associated with lake volume, lake area, altitude and DOC.

Size‐resolved measurements of mixing state and cloud‐nucleating ability of aerosols in Nanjing, China

AbstractAn integrated aerosol analytical system was deployed in Nanjing, a megacity in the Yangtze River Delta, to measure size‐resolved aerosol mixing states, effective densities, cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) activities, and chemical composition in August 2013. It was found that aerosols were predominantly internally mixed. The average effective densities were 1.38 ± 0.09, 1.48 ± 0.08, and 1.53 ± 0.07 g cm−3 for 50, 80, and 120 nm particles, respectively. Although black carbon (BC) represented only 0.3%, 1.6%, and 3.3% of the particle mass, on average, it was present in 7%, 38%, and 47% of the total particle number concentration at 50, 80, and 120 nm, respectively, indicating that BC particles may contribute significantly to the total atmospheric aerosol population. Externally mixed BC was only occasionally observed with an effective density of 0.67–0.97 g cm−3. Aerosols sampled generally exhibited a relatively high CCN activity and hygroscopicity (κ = 0.35 ± 0.13). Both newly formed particles and freshly emitted BC particles were observed to age rapidly from photochemical processes, with a significant enhancement in the particle CCN activity and an increase in the effective density. Aerosols influenced by four different air masses presented similar CCN activation, indicating that CCN activation would be primarily dependent on the particle size rather than the particle origin (and hence original composition). Our results suggest that under highly active photochemical conditions as encountered in this study, particles from both local sources and regional transport can be rapidly converted into efficient CCN by photochemical aging, thereby making important contributions to the atmospheric CCN budget and exerting profound implications on aerosol indirect climate forcing.

Global source attribution of sulfate concentration and direct and indirect radiative forcing

Abstract. The global source–receptor relationships of sulfate concentrations, and direct and indirect radiative forcing (DRF and IRF) from 16 regions/sectors for years 2010–2014 are examined in this study through utilizing a sulfur source-tagging capability implemented in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with winds nudged to reanalysis data. Sulfate concentrations are mostly contributed by local emissions in regions with high emissions, while over regions with relatively low SO2 emissions, the near-surface sulfate concentrations are primarily attributed to non-local sources from long-range transport. Regional source efficiencies of sulfate concentrations are higher over regions with dry atmospheric conditions and less export, suggesting that lifetime of aerosols, together with regional export, is important in determining regional air quality. The simulated global total sulfate DRF is −0.42 W m−2, with −0.31 W m−2 contributed by anthropogenic sulfate and −0.11 W m−2 contributed by natural sulfate, relative to a state with no sulfur emissions. In the Southern Hemisphere tropics, dimethyl sulfide (DMS) contributes 17–84 % to the total DRF. East Asia has the largest contribution of 20–30 % over the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes. A 20 % perturbation of sulfate and its precursor emissions gives a sulfate incremental IRF of −0.44 W m−2. DMS has the largest contribution, explaining −0.23 W m−2 of the global sulfate incremental IRF. Incremental IRF over regions in the Southern Hemisphere with low background aerosols is more sensitive to emission perturbation than that over the polluted Northern Hemisphere.

Study on Aerosol Properties Based on CALIPSO in Representative Regions over China

To assess the aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing, this paper analyzed the seasonal aerosol optical properties and vertical distribution characteristics in eight representative regions over China by using CALIPSO Level 2 products. The seasonal aerosol optical properties were validated by the AERONET data. The results show that the Taklamakan Desert (TD) and Tibet Plateau (TP) have the greatest depolarization and color ratios (PDR and CR) while the Northeast Plain (NP), Sichuan Basin (SB), North China Plain (NCP) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) have the smallest PDR and CR, the Loess Plateau (LP) has intermediate PDR and CR, and that the Pearl River Delta (PRD) has the same PDR and greater CR compared with the polluted regions. The dust is transported to the middle and upper troposphere in spring, the strong vertical convection activities in summer transport massive aerosols from the atmospheric boundary layer to the free troposphere, and the stable meteorological conditions in autumn and winter trap massive aerosols within the boundary layer. The ratio of the AOD within 1.5 km above the ground to the total AOD and the extinction lapse rate in winter are greater than those in other seasons and 48.25% and 0.13km-2, respectively. The extinction lapse rates in the planetary boundary layer for the heavier polluted regions are greater than those in the polluted regions.

Large Reductions in Solar Energy Production Due to Dust and Particulate Air Pollution

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) has the potential to diminish solar energy production by direct and indirect radiative forcing as well as by being deposited on solar panel surfaces, thereby reducing solar energy transmittance to photovoltaics. Worldwide solar energy production is expected to increase more rapidly than any other energy source into the middle of this century, especially in regions that experience high levels of dust and/or anthropogenic particulate pollutants, including large areas of India, China, and the Arabian Peninsula. Here we combine field measurements and global modeling to estimate the influence of dust and PM related to anthropogenic sources (e.g., fossil and biomass fuel combustion) on solar electricity generation. Results indicate that solar energy production is currently reduced by ∼17–25% across these regions, with roughly equal contributions from ambient PM and PM deposited on photovoltaic surfaces. Reductions due to dust and anthropogenic PM are comparable in northern In...

Sensitivity study of cloud parameterizations with relative dispersion in CAM5.1: impacts on aerosol indirect effects

Abstract. Aerosol-induced increase of relative dispersion of cloud droplet size distribution ε exerts a warming effect and partly offsets the cooling of aerosol indirect radiative forcing (AIF) associated with increased droplet concentration by increasing the cloud droplet effective radius (Re) and enhancing the cloud-to-rain autoconversion rate (Au) (labeled as the dispersion effect), which can help reconcile global climate models (GCMs) with the satellite observations. However, the total dispersion effects on both Re and Au are not fully considered in most GCMs, especially in different versions of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). In order to accurately evaluate the dispersion effect on AIF, the new complete cloud parameterizations of Re and Au explicitly accounting for ε are implemented into the CAM version 5.1 (CAM5.1), and a suite of sensitivity experiments is conducted with different representations of ε reported in the literature. It is shown that the shortwave cloud radiative forcing is much better simulated with the new cloud parameterizations as compared to the standard scheme in CAM5.1, whereas the influences on longwave cloud radiative forcing and surface precipitation are minimal. Additionally, consideration of the dispersion effect can significantly reduce the changes induced by anthropogenic aerosols in the cloud-top effective radius and the liquid water path, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The corresponding AIF with the dispersion effect considered can also be reduced substantially by a range of 0.10 to 0.21 W m−2 at the global scale and by a much bigger margin of 0.25 to 0.39 W m−2 for the Northern Hemisphere in comparison with that of fixed relative dispersion, mainly dependent on the change of relative dispersion and droplet concentrations (Δε∕ΔNc).

Impact of temperature dependence on the possible contribution of organics to new particle formation in the atmosphere

Abstract. Secondary particles formed via new particle formation (NPF) dominate cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) abundance in most parts of the troposphere and are important for aerosol indirect radiative forcing (IRF). Laboratory measurements have shown that certain organic compounds can significantly enhance the binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and H2O. According to our recent study comparing particle size distributions measured in nine forest areas in North America with those predicted by a global size-resolved aerosol model, current H2SO4–organics nucleation parameterizations appear to significantly overpredict NPF and particle number concentrations in summer. The lack of temperature dependence in the current H2SO4–organics nucleation parameterization has been suggested to be a possible reason for the observed overprediction. In this work, H2SO4–organics clustering thermodynamics from quantum chemical studies has been employed to develop a scheme to incorporate temperature dependence into H2SO4–organics nucleation parameterization. We show that temperature has a strong impact on H2SO4–organics nucleation rates and may reduce the nucleation rate by ∼ 1 order of magnitude per 10 K of temperature increase. The particle number concentrations in summer over North America based on the revised scheme is a factor of more than 2 lower, which is in much better agreement with the observations. With the temperature-dependent H2SO4–organics nucleation parameterization, the summer CCN concentrations in the lower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere are about 10–30 % lower compared to the temperature-independent parameterization. This study highlights the importance of the temperature effect and its impacts on NPF in the global modeling of aerosol number abundance.