Indirect Climate Research Articles

Looking to Livestock: Gauging the Evolution of the EU's Agri-Climate Law and Policy

Abstract Awareness of agricultural climate impacts is growing. In the European Union (EU), the agricultural sector is responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to receive considerable EU budgetary support. A large share of agricultural emissions is linked to livestock husbandry, a sector the direct and indirect climate impacts of which the EU's ‘green’ agricultural policies have historically ignored. This blind spot extends to the sizeable global deforestation footprint from EU livestock feed imports that remains unaddressed, despite the EU's aspired status as a global climate leader and major global agricultural market player. This article benchmarks the evolution of EU agri-climate legal and policy developments, using livestock emissions as a case study to highlight the importance of learning from the successes and failures of the EU experience, to realize future attempts to tackle global agricultural emissions.

First detection of industrial hydrogen emissions using high precision mobile measurements in ambient air

Projections towards 2050 of the global hydrogen (H2) demand indicate an eight-fold increase in present-day hydrogen consumption. Leakage during production, transport, and consumption therefore presents a large potential for increases in the atmospheric hydrogen burden. Although not a greenhouse gas itself, hydrogen has important indirect climate effects, and the Global Warming Potential of H2 is estimated to be 12.8 times that of CO2. Available technologies to detect hydrogen emissions have been targeted at risk mitigation of industrial facilities, while smaller climate-relevant emissions remain undetected. The latter requires measurement capacity at the parts-per-billion level (ppb). We developed and demonstrated an effective method to detect small hydrogen emissions from industrial installations that combines active AirCore sampling with ppb-precision analysis by gas chromatography. We applied our methodology at a chemical park in the province of Groningen, the Netherlands, where several hydrogen production and storage facilities are concentrated. From a car and an unmanned aerial vehicle, we detected and quantified for the first time small but persistent industrial emissions from leakage and purging across the hydrogen value chain, which include electrolysers, a hydrogen fuelling station, and chemical production plants. Our emission estimates indicate current loss rates up to 4.2% of the estimated production and storage in these facilities. This is sufficiently large to urgently flag the need for monitoring and verification of H2 emissions for the purpose of understanding our climate change trajectory in the 21st century.

Development and Validation of a Climate Change Version of the Man-Made Disaster-Related Distress Scale (CC-MMDS)

IntroductionClimate change, considered as a pressing man-made disaster, poses a fundamental threat to global health, with significant psychological consequences. However, measurement instruments assessing these consequences of climate change remain limited. This study aimed to address this gap by developing and validating an adapted version of the Man-Made Disaster-Related Distress Scale (MMDS), specifically designed for the assessment of indirect climate change-related psychological consequences. Materials and MethodsThe items of the MMDS were adapted to climate change. The resulting “Climate Change – Man-Made Disaster-Related Distress Scale” (CC-MMDS), comprising 16 items, was validated in an online-based survey in Germany. Initially, 1070 participants were engaged in the survey. ResultsThe data of n = 715 participants was used for analysis. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed a two-factor structure, encompassing “psychological distress” and “change of existing belief systems”, with acceptable to good model fit. The CC-MMDS demonstrated excellent reliability and good validity, with measurement invariance across gender, age, and educational level. DiscussionThis study validated the CC-MMDS, confirming a two-factor structure. The scale demonstrated strong measurement properties, making it a promising standardized instrument for assessing climate change-related distress. ConclusionWith its strong psychometric properties and efficient administration, the CC-MMDS offers valuable insights for research and can aid mental health providers in identifying and supporting individuals impacted by climate change.

Impacts of Direct and Indirect Experiences of Climate Change on Life Satisfaction

The ongoing climate change crisis has significant effects on young people’s wellbeing. While existing literature highlights its impact on various dimensions of wellbeing, the relationship between climate change and life satisfaction is not well understood due to limited research in this area. To address this gap, we investigated whether university students who had personally or vicariously experienced climate-related events reported lower life satisfaction compared to students who had not experienced climate related events. Contrary to what was anticipated, our multiple regression analysis of data from 919 first- and second-year Carleton University students revealed that neither direct nor indirect climate change experiences predicted life satisfaction. We speculate that participants’ evaluations of life satisfaction may not solely rely on discrete moments but also consider factors beyond their control, such as extreme weather events. These findings underscore the need to explore how climate change affects personal wellbeing among younger populations.

Land use and cover change accelerated China’s land carbon sinks limits soil carbon

Land use and cover change (LUCC) significantly impacts global carbon cycles and land surface properties, accounting for 25% of the historical atmospheric CO2 increase. We explore a previously overlooked role of LUCC in driving the land carbon cycle by using a three-level meta-analysis and Land Use Harmonization data to drive an ecosystem model. Our findings reveal that a loss of 39.2% of soil organic carbon (SOC) change in China due to LUCC, mitigated by afforestation, doubles gross primary productivity at 0.02 Pg C yr−1, countering central China’s urbanization decline. Indirect climate effects, especially soil bulk density, significantly impact SOC compared to direct climate effects. LUCC has significantly increased the Chinese terrestrial carbon sink, with net ecosystem productivity reaching 0.02 ± 0.12 Pg C yr−1. Our study underscores the importance of reforestation and afforestation in addressing climate change and enhancing carbon sinks in future carbon management.

Climate change and public health in California: A structured review of exposures, vulnerable populations, and adaptation measures

California faces several serious direct and indirect climate exposures that can adversely affect public health, some of which are already occurring. The public health burden now and in the future will depend on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, underlying population vulnerabilities, and adaptation efforts. Here, we present a structured review of recent literature to examine the leading climate risks to public health in California, including extreme heat, extreme precipitation, wildfires, air pollution, and infectious diseases. Comparisons among different climate-health pathways are difficult due to inconsistencies in study design regarding spatial and temporal scales and health outcomes examined. We find, however, that the current public health burden likely affects thousands of Californians each year, depending on the exposure pathway and health outcome. Further, while more evidence exists for direct and indirect proximal health effects that are the focus of this review, distal pathways (e.g., impacts of drought on nutrition) are more uncertain but could add to this burden. We find that climate adaptation measures can provide significant health benefits, particularly in disadvantaged communities. We conclude with priority recommendations for future analyses and solution-driven policy actions.

Climate impacts of landfill gas emissions: Analysis for 20-year and 100-year time horizons

Climate impacts of landfill gas emissions were investigated for 20- and 100-year time horizons to identify the effects of atmospheric lifetimes of short- and long-lived drivers. Direct and indirect climate impacts were determined for methane and 79 trace species. The impacts were quantified using global warming potential, GWP (direct and indirect); atmospheric degradation (direct); tropospheric ozone forming potential (indirect); secondary aerosol forming potential (indirect) and stratospheric ozone depleting potential (indirect). Effects of cover characteristics, landfill operational conditions, and season on emissions were assessed. Analysis was conducted at five operating municipal solid waste landfills in California, which collectively contained 13% of the waste in place in the state. Climate impacts were determined to be primarily due to direct emissions (99.5 to 115%) with indirect emissions contributing −15 to 0.5%. Methane emissions were 35 to 99% of the total emissions and the remainder mainly greenhouse gases (hydro)chlorofluorocarbons (up to 42% of total emissions) and nitrous oxide. Cover types affected emissions, where the highest emissions were generally from intermediate covers with the largest relative landfill surface areas. Landfill-specific direct emissions varied between 683 and 103,411 and between 381 and 37,925 Mg CO2-eq./yr for 20- and 100-yr time horizons, respectively. Total emissions (direct + indirect) were 680 to 103,600 (20-yr) and were 374 to 38,108 (100-yr) Mg CO2-eq./yr. Analysis time horizon significantly affected emissions. The 20-yr direct and total emissions were consistently higher than the 100-yr emissions by up to 2.5 times. Detailed analysis of time-dependent climate effects can inform strategies to mitigate climate change impacts of landfill gas emissions.

Multi-proxy temperature and environmental reconstruction during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene in the Bohemian Forest, Central Europe

Multi-proxy temperature reconstructions can provide robust insights into past environmental conditions. By combining different proxies we can disentangle the temperature signal from the indirect climate effects on the environment. This study uses a multi-proxy approach to reconstruct temperature and palaeoenvironmental conditions during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene (13.5–8 cal. ka BP) in the Bohemian Forest, Central Europe. We assessed the similarity of the temperature signal based on chironomids, isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (isoGDGTs), and pollen within a comparison with locally modeled temperature data generated by the CHELSA_Trace21k dataset. Pollen, macroscopic charcoal remains, and geochemistry were further used to reconstruct past environmental conditions such as vegetation dynamics, fire activity, the input of lithogenic material (Titanium), nutrient content (Total Nitrogen) and the sources of organic matter (C/N and δ13Corg). All temperature reconstructions based on independent proxies were positively correlated and followed the same long-term trend. However, results also showed that chironomids-inferred July temperature had lower amplitude variations compared to the other temperature curves. IsoGDGTs showed the most pronounced decrease in temperature values at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD), corroborating that this cooling event was more marked during winter than summer. However, a decrease of less than 1 °C during summer and two short-term warm events at 12.6 and 12.2 cal ka BP provoked a modest and asynchronous response of the vegetation to the onset of the YD. Nevertheless, isoGDGTs appeared to react to changes in both temperature and organic carbon sources, particularly between 11.2 and 10.6 cal yr BP. These environmental changes, characterized by high values of the GDGT-0/crenarchaeol ratio, recorded an increase in methanogenic activity in the lake sediments, which likely altered the recorded climatic signal. The corresponding anoxic episodes in the lake sediments might be caused by an increasing input of organic carbon from the catchment, related to the development of the vegetation and catchment soils at the beginning of the Holocene. Finally, pollen-based temperature reconstruction showed a lag in the response to major climatic events, such as the onset of YD and Holocene. Our study increases the understanding of the climate-vegetation-environmental feedback during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene in the Bohemian Forest, Central Europe.

Understanding the Climate Crisis: Risk Perceptions among Public High School Faculty

The purpose of the current study was to identify the hazards of climate change as perceived by public secondary school teachers. The research employs a quantitative research design. The sample consisted of 119 male and 80 female secondary school teachers through a random sampling technique. The self-developed questionnaire was used to identify the hazards of climate change as perceived by the teachers. The data were analyzed through Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) 26. Findings reveal that there was moderately high awareness of intensified disasters like heat waves and droughts. Moreover, 20-25% of the respondents underestimated the incremental risks like land degradation and biodiversity declines. Teachers connect recurring weather events to climate shifts, but current mental models downplay cascading losses. Tailored training to communicate compounding risks and mainstream threats in the secondary curriculum can help. Periodic risk perception surveys will enable evolving monitoring. Gender and age variance exploration may reveal differentiation. Pakistan’s vulnerability spotlights teachers’ risk interpretations needing systemic uplift to catalyse youth climate literacy. Targeted interventions addressing awareness gaps regarding indirect climate impacts are recommended alongside disaster preparedness communication.

A framework for assessing the impacts of land-use/cover change and climate change on wheat productivity under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming at watershed scale.

Irrigation is used extensively to enhance grain production and ensure food security. Many studies have used crop models and global climate models to study the variation of irrigated crop yield in the context of climate change. But most considered the influence of direct climate change but neglected the influence of irrigation water availability, which is affected by land-use/cover change (LUCC) and indirect climate change, on irrigated crop yield. This study therefore developed a framework including Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Agricultural Production Systems sImulator Model, and global climate models for exploring the impacts of LUCC, direct climate change, and indirect climate change on wheat yield in a typical watershed. Both LUCC and climate change caused increased runoff from October to May, and thus increased the irrigation water availability, by 51.6 and 30.7 mm per growing season under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming, respectively. The combined influence of LUCC, direct, and indirect climate change increased wheat yield by about 18.5% and 15.5% in the context of 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming, respectively. The relative contribution of LUCC, indirect climate change and direct climate change to yield was 4.7%, 41.2%, and 54.1% under 1.5 °C warming, and 13.1%, 28.7%, and 58.2% under 2.0 °C warming, respectively. We suggest that changes in irrigation water availability should be considered from a watershed perspective when simulating the influence of climate change on crop yield, especially regional crop production estimation. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Source apportionment of cloud condensation nuclei in the China's marginal seas during the spring of 2021

Assessing the aerosol-cloud indirect climate influence requires determining the concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (Nccn) and atmospheric particles (Ncn). Due to the rapid industrialization in East Asia, the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere has significantly increased. Influenced by prevailing monsoon, these pollutants will be transported to the China's marginal seas, which are downwind of the East Asian continent. In this study, based on ship-based observations from the China's marginal seas during the spring of 2021, average Ncn was recorded as 4.4±1.1×103 cm-3 and Nccn values at 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% SS were 1.8±0.4×103 cm-3, 2.4±0.8×103 cm-3, and 2.5±0.7×103 cm-3, respectively. Then, we used the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis approach to allocate the sources of Nccn based on ship-based observations from China's marginal seas in the spring of 2021. There are five factors identified: continental emissions, different degrees of ship exhaust, and nucleation mode.

Projected climate and canopy change lead to thermophilization and homogenization of forest floor vegetation in a hotspot of plant species richness.

Mountain forests are plant diversity hotspots, but changing climate and increasing forest disturbances will likely lead to far-reaching plant community change. Projecting future change, however, is challenging for forest understory plants, which respond to forest structure and composition as well as climate. Here, we jointly assessed the effects of both climate and forest change, including wind and bark beetle disturbances, using the process-based simulation model iLand in a protected landscape in the northern Alps (Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany), asking: (1) How do understory plant communities respond to 21st-century change in a topographically complex mountain landscape, representing a hotspot of plant species richness? (2) How important are climatic changes (i.e., direct climate effects) versus forest structure and composition changes (i.e., indirect climate effects and recovery from past land use) in driving understory responses at landscape scales? Stacked individual species distribution models fit with climate, forest, and soil predictors (248 species currently present in the landscape, derived from 150 field plots stratified by elevation and forest development, overall area under the receiving operator characteristic curve = 0.86) were driven with projected climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and modeled forest variables to predict plant community change. Nearly all species persisted in the landscape in 2050, but on average 8% of the species pool was lost by the end of the century. By 2100, landscape mean species richness and understory cover declined (-13% and -8%, respectively), warm-adapted species increasingly dominated plant communities (i.e., thermophilization, +12%), and plot-level turnover was high (62%). Subalpine forests experienced the greatest richness declines (-16%), most thermophilization (+17%), and highest turnover (67%), resulting in plant community homogenization across elevation zones. Climate rather than forest change was the dominant driver of understory responses. The magnitude of unabated 21st-century change is likely to erode plant diversity in a species richness hotspot, calling for stronger conservation and climate mitigation efforts.

Impacts of a warming climate on concentrations of organochlorines in a fasting high arctic marine bird: Direct vs. indirect effects?

The present study examined how climate changes may impact the concentrations of lipophilic organochlorines (OCs) in the blood of fasting High Arctic common eiders (Somateria mollissima) during incubation. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl) ethylene (p,p′-DDE), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and four chlordane compounds (oxychlordane, trans-chlordane and trans- and cis-nonachlor) were measured in females at chick hatching (n = 223) over 11 years (2007–2017). Firstly, median HCB and p,p′-DDE concentrations increased ~75 % over the study period, whereas median chlordane concentrations doubled (except for oxychlordane). PCB concentrations, in contrast, remained stable over the study period. Secondly, both body mass and clutch size were negatively associated with OC levels, suggesting that females with high lipid metabolism redistributed more OCs from adipose tissue, and that egg production is an important elimination route for OCs. Thirdly, the direct climate effects were assessed using the mean effective temperature (ET: air temperature and wind speed) during incubation, and we hypothesized that a low ET would increase redistribution of OCs. Contrary to expectation, the ET was positively correlated to most OCs, suggesting that a warmer climate may lead to higher OCs levels, and that the impact of ET may not be direct. Finally, potential indirect impacts were examined using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the three preceding winters (AOwinter 1–3) as a proxy for potential long-range transport of OCs, and for local spring climate conditions. In addition, we used chlorophyll a (Chla) as a measure of spring primary production. There were negative associations between AOwinter 1 and HCB, trans-chlordane and trans-nonachlor, whereas oxychlordane and cis-chlordane were negatively associated with Chla. This suggests that potential indirect climate effects on eiders were manifested through the food chain and not through increased long-range transport, although these relationships were relatively weak.

Study on the Effectiveness of Green GDP Accounting System in Mitigating Climate Change- Based on ARIMA-LSTM Model

At present, the most widely used composite index to measure economic growth in the world is GDP and its growth rate, but this composite index does not sufficiently emphasize the importance of climate environment. In order to emphasize the greenness of development, it is necessary to establish a green GDP accounting system and test whether the green gdp system can mitigate climate change. In this paper, we first select seven direct climate impact indicators, including energy consumption and indirect climate impact indicators, and assign weights to the direct climate impact indicators by entropy weighting method to establish a green GDP accounting system. Then the climate prediction model based on ARMIMA-LSTM is established with CO2 emission and temperature change as evaluation indicators, and the model is trained to obtain the climate change under the GGDP system. This paper is important for measuring green GDP.

Isolating the effects of land use and functional variation on Yucatán's forest biomass under global change

Tropical forests hold large stocks of carbon in biomass and face pressures from changing climate and anthropogenic disturbance. Forests' capacity to store biomass under future conditions and accumulate biomass during regrowth after clearance are major knowledge gaps. Here we use chronosequence data, satellite observations and a C-cycle model to diagnose woody C dynamics in two dry forest ecotypes (semi-deciduous and semi-evergreen) in Yucatán, Mexico. Woody biomass differences between mature semi-deciduous (90 MgC ha−1) and semi-evergreen (175 MgC ha−1) forest landscapes are mostly explained by differences in climate (c. 60%), particularly temperature, humidity and soil moisture effects on production. Functional variation in foliar phenology, woody allocation, and wood turnover rate explained c. 40% of biomass differences between ecotypes. Modeling experiments explored varied forest clearance and regrowth cycles, under a range of climate and CO2 change scenarios to 2100. Production and steady state biomass in both ecotypes were reduced by forecast warming and drying (mean biomass 2021–2100 reduced 16–19% compared to 2001–2020), but compensated by fertilisation from rising CO2. Functional analysis indicates that trait adjustments amplify biomass losses by 70%. Experiments with disturbance and recovery across historically reported levels indicate reductions to mean forest biomass stocks over 2021–2100 similar in magnitude to climate impacts (10–19% reductions for disturbance with recovery). Forest disturbance without regrowth amplifies biomass loss by three- or four-fold. We conclude that vegetation functional differences across the Yucatán climate gradient have developed to limit climate risks. Climate change will therefore lead to functional adjustments for all forest types. These adjustments are likely to magnify biomass reductions caused directly by climate change over the coming century. However, the range of impacts of land use and land use change are as, or more, substantive than the totality of direct and indirect climate impacts. Thus the carbon storage of Yucatan's forests is highly vulnerable both to climate and land use and land use change. Our results here should be used to test and enhance land surface models use for dry forest carbon cycle assessment regionally and globally. A single plant functional type approach for modeling Yucatán's forests is not justified.

Mopane (Colophospermum mopane): A potential winner under climate change in southern Africa

AbstractDistribution and abundance under climate change of particularly non‐timber forest product tree species is vital since they sustain many livelihoods, especially in rural sub‐Saharan Africa. The aim of the study was to determine the current and future natural range of mopane (Colophospermum mopane (J. Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard, Fabaceae), a dominant tree species in mopane woodlands of southern Africa. An ensemble model was built in ‘biomod2’ from eight algorithms and used to estimate the current and future distribution. Seven bioclimatic variables and 269 occurrence records were used to calibrate individual models that were later combined into an ensemble model. The ensemble model was projected to two time periods, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, and three general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble model showed high performance (KAPPA = 0.770, ROC = 0.961, TSS = 0.792, ACCURACY = 0.900). A map of the current distribution shows occurrence predominantly in low‐lying areas, including the Zambezi, Save and Limpopo valleys, Okavango and Cuvelai basins, and in southern and central Mozambique. Projection maps show expansion under all SSPs, GCMs and time periods. Averaged across GCMs in 2041–2060, the range expanded by 22.37% under SSP2‐4.5, and by 19.94% under SSP5‐8.5. In 2081–2100, the range expanded by 20.43% under SSP2‐4.5, and by 27.62% under SSP5‐8.5. Notably, the range expansion was highest under SSP5‐8.5, an SSP that envisages unmitigated greenhouse gas release and the largest mean global temperature increase. It is highly likely that mopane is not directly threatened by climate change. Indirect climate change threats, however, remain uncertain.

Climate Change and Statutory Construction: Administrative Law Expertise and “New” Emergencies

Responding to climate change requires multi-faceted and long-term public action, particularly in the administrative sphere. The centrality of statutory construction in climate change administrative law adjudication reflects this fact. This article is a study of how statutory construction arguments are figuring in these cases in common law jurisdictions. Arguments relate to direct and indirect climate change legislative provisions and legislative obligations concerning environmental assessment. A study of these different arguments underscores how climate change is giving rise to complex legal questions – a legal reality often overlooked in discourses about these cases as forms of strategic litigation. That legal reality points to the need to foster administrative law expertise in relation to both statutes and climate change. Such fostering requires the evolution of legal imagination.

Trifluoroiodomethane as a Precursor to High Global Warming Potential Climate Pollutants: Could the Transformation of Climatically Benign CF3I into Potent Greenhouse Gases Significantly Increase Refrigerant-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

The transition away from the production and consumption of high global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) has prompted air conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump equipment manufacturers to seek alternative refrigerants with lower direct climate impacts. Additional factors affecting alternative refrigerant choice include safety (i.e., flammability and toxicity), environmental, and thermodynamic constraints. At the same time, manufacturers are incentivized to seek refrigerants with higher energy efficiency, which saves on electricity costs and reduces indirect greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. The life cycle climate performance (LCCP) metric is commonly used to assess the combined direct and indirect climate impacts of refrigerant-use equipment. Here, we consider an additional impact on climate performance: the degradation of refrigerant in equipment, i.e., the direct climate impacts of high-GWP byproducts that can form as the result of adding trifluoroiodomethane (CF3I) to refrigerant blends to reduce flammability. Such a production of high-GWP gases could change the acceptability of CF3I-containing refrigerants. Further, it highlights the need to understand refrigerant degradation within equipment in calculations of the environmental acceptability of new cooling technology.

Barking up the tree wrongly? How national security strategies frame climate and other environmental change as security issues

The right framing of climate and other environmental change is crucial to guide policy responses towards preventing human suffering, displacement, and violent conflict. This study analyzes how ministries of defense and other security policy actors from 93 countries framed climate and other environmental change in national security strategy documents (NSSD) published between 2000 and 2020. An inductive content analysis reveals three shortcomings in the representations of environmental and climate change in these documents: First, representations of direct impacts are overly dominated by a focus on disasters. Second, references to indirect climate impacts do not reflect the current state of research. Third, a share of references to climate and other environmental change represents the planetary dimension of change in problematic ways. Additionally, the global scope of the analysis reveals regional differences in climate securitization: Framings of climate migration were mostly raised by potential destination countries, which often have high historical emissions, fueling concerns of climate injustice. By contrast, questionable statements on environmental and climate conflicts were published in the Global North and South alike. All in all, this suggests that the securitization of environmental and climate change are global phenomena. They do, however, not adequately reflect the planetary uncertainties of the Anthropocene.

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections

Abstract. The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of offline coupled climate and ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of grapevines to global direct and indirect climate drivers, notably orbital parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography, and greenhouse gas concentrations. This approach is particularly useful to place the evolution of future agrosystems in the context of their past variations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last 3 millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effects of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2 ∘C above preindustrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas – sometimes considered to be the starting point of the Little Ice Age in the mid-13th century – would not decrease aridity and so not slow down this decline in viticulture extension in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area. This result does not confirm the idea of geoengineering that solar radiation modification (SRM) is an efficient option to limit future global warming.