Indirect Aerosol Research Articles

Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO<sub>2</sub> emissions from China in three climate models

Abstract. We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.

Sulfate Aerosols from Non-Explosive Volcanoes: Chemical-Radiative Effects in the Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

SO2 and H2S are the two most important gas-phase sulfur species emitted by volcanoes, with a global amount from non-explosive emissions of the order 10 Tg-S/yr. These gases are readily oxidized forming SO42− aerosols, which effectively scatter the incoming solar radiation and cool the surface. They also perturb atmospheric chemistry by enhancing the NOx to HNO3 heterogeneous conversion via hydrolysis on the aerosol surface of N2O5 and Br-Cl nitrates. This reduces formation of tropospheric O3 and the OH to HO2 ratio, thus limiting the oxidation of CH4 and increasing its lifetime. In addition to this tropospheric chemistry perturbation, there is also an impact on the NOx heterogeneous chemistry in the lower stratosphere, due to vertical transport of volcanic SO2 up to the tropical tropopause layer. Furthermore, the stratospheric O3 formation and loss, as well as the NOx budget, may be slightly affected by the additional amount of upward diffused solar radiation and consequent increase of photolysis rates. Two multi-decadal time-slice runs of a climate-chemistry-aerosol model have been designed for studying these chemical-radiative effects. A tropopause mean global net radiative flux change (RF) of −0.23 W·m−2 is calculated (including direct and indirect aerosol effects) with a 14% increase of the global mean sulfate aerosol optical depth. A 5–15 ppt NOx decrease is found in the mid-troposphere subtropics and mid-latitudes and also from pole to pole in the lower stratosphere. The tropospheric NOx perturbation triggers a column O3 decrease of 0.5–1.5 DU and a 1.1% increase of the CH4 lifetime. The surface cooling induced by solar radiation scattering by the volcanic aerosols induces a tropospheric stabilization with reduced updraft velocities that produce ice supersaturation conditions in the upper troposphere. A global mean 0.9% decrease of the cirrus ice optical depth is calculated with an indirect RF of −0.08 W·m−2.

Influence of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Solar Irradiance Variability in Northern Europe

AbstractObservations have revealed strong variability of shortwave (SW) irradiance at Earth’s surface on decadal time scales, referred to as global dimming and brightening. Previous studies have attributed the dimming and brightening to changes in clouds and atmospheric aerosols. This study assesses the influence of atmospheric circulation on clouds and SW irradiance to separate the influence of “natural” SW variability from direct and, to some extent, indirect aerosol effects. The focus is on SW irradiance in northern Europe in summer and spring because there is little high-latitude SW irradiance during winter. As a measure of large-scale circulation the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) dataset, a daily classification of synoptic weather patterns, is used. Empirical models of normalized SW irradiance are constructed based on the GWL, relating the synoptic weather patterns to the local radiative climate. In summer, a temporary SW peak in the 1970s and subsequent dimming is linked to variations in the synoptic patterns over Scandinavia, possibly related to a northward shift in the North Atlantic storm track. In spring, a decrease of anticyclonic and increase of cyclonic weather patterns over northern Europe contributes to the dimming from the 1960s to 1990. At many sites, there is also a residual SW irradiance trend not explained by the GWL model: a weak nonsignificant residual dimming from the 1950s or 1960s to around 1990, followed by a statistically significant residual brightening. It is concluded that factors other than the large-scale circulation (e.g., decreasing aerosol emissions) also play an important role in northern Europe.

Aerosol transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus Asia-1 under experimental conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) control measures rely on understanding of virus transmission mechanisms. Direct contact between naïve and infected animals or spread by contaminated fomites is prevented by quarantines and rigorous decontamination procedures during outbreaks. Transmission of FMDV by aerosol may not be prevented by these control measures and this route of transmission may allow infection of animals at distance from the infection source. Understanding the potential for aerosol spread of specific FMDV strains is important for informing control strategies in an outbreak. Here, the potential for transmission of an FMDV Asia 1 strain between pigs and cattle by indirect aerosol exposure was evaluated in an experimental setting. Four naïve calves were exposed to aerosols emitted from three infected pigs in an adjacent room for a 10h period. Direct contact between pigs and cattle and fomite transfer between rooms was prevented. Viral titres in aerosols emitted by the infected pigs were measured to estimate the dose that calves were exposed to. One of the calves developed clinical signs of FMD, whilst there was serological evidence for spread to cattle by aerosol transmission in the remaining three calves. This highlights the possibility that this FMDV Asia 1 strain could be spread by aerosol transmission given appropriate environmental conditions should an outbreak occur in pigs. Our estimates suggest the exposure dose required for aerosol transmission was higher than has been previously quantified for other serotypes, implying that aerosols are less likely to play a significant role in transmission and spread of this FMDV strain.

Indirect Aerosol Effect Increases CMIP5 Models’ Projected Arctic Warming

Abstract Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. The CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.

Escenarios climáticos globales de alta resolución para entornos regionales y urbanos con estudios de impacto en la salud

In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the effects.

Aerosol effects on cloud cover as evidenced by ground‐based and space‐based observations at five rural sites in the United States

AbstractPrevious studies of the second aerosol indirect (lifetime) effect on cloud cover have estimated the strength of the effect without correcting for near‐cloud contamination and other confounding factors. Here we combine satellite‐based observations with a multiyear ground‐based data set across five rural locations in the United States to more accurately constrain the second indirect aerosol effect and quantify aerosol effects on radiative forcing. Results show that near‐cloud contamination accounts for approximately 40% of the satellite‐derived aerosol‐cloud relationship. When contamination is removed and the effect of meteorological covariation is minimized, a strong physical aerosol effect on cloud cover remains. Averaged over all stations and after correcting for contamination, the daytime solar and total (solar + IR) radiative forcing is −52 W/m2 and −19 W/m2, respectively, due to both direct and indirect aerosol effects for aerosol optical depths (τ) between 0 and 0.3. Averaged diurnally, the average total radiative forcing is +16 W/m2.

Sensitivities in Large-Eddy Simulations of Mixed-Phase Arctic Stratocumulus Clouds Using a Simple Microphysics Approach*

Abstract Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds are maintained by feedbacks between microphysical and dynamical phenomena, but the details of these interactions are incompletely understood. Although large-eddy simulations are a promising means of elucidating microphysics–turbulence relationships, the use of sophisticated microphysical schemes complicates analysis of their results. Here, the ability of a simplified one-moment scheme to capture basic features of this cloud type is investigated through simulations based on Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (MPACE), SHEBA/FIRE-ACE, and Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) intercomparison studies. The results of the simple scheme show reasonable agreement with liquid and ice water path predictions reported by models using schemes of similar or greater complexity. Additional tests are performed to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to three main parameters of the scheme: the snow and ice size distribution intercept parameters and the exponent appearing in the temperature-dependent phase-partition function, which is used to diagnose cloud condensate amounts. Sensitivities of the SHEBA and ISDAC cases, both of which have low surface heat fluxes and low precipitation rates, tend to be similar, while the MPACE case, with higher surface fluxes and precipitation rates, shows somewhat different trends. Results of all three cases are found to be sensitive to the snow size distribution intercept parameter, but this quantity can be adequately estimated using a recently developed diagnostic expression based on observations of Arctic clouds.

Impact of pollutant emission reductions on summertime aerosol feedbacks: A case study over the PO valley

Abstract This study presents an evaluation of the impact by future pollutant anthropogenic emission reductions on summertime aerosol feedbacks over the Po valley. The fully coupled on line model Wrf/Chem has been used to examine the air quality and meteorology response over the region to 2020 emission reductions with respect to a simulation base case (2013). Future changes in net short wave radiation flux (SW) are also analyzed. The model domain is a 6 × 6 km2 resolution grid over Northern Italy; the simulation period covers two summer months (July–August). The work is divided into two parts. In the first, model results for the Base Case simulation (BC) are evaluated by comparing Wrf/Chem output to surface observations provided by two monitoring networks. Approximately 25 sites belonging to the regional ARPA Lombardia Network are used for both chemistry (NO2, O3 and PM10 concentrations) and meteorology (wind speed and 2-meters temperature) evaluation; 4 stations part of the global AEROsol Robotic Network (AERONET) are used for the evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). In the second part, a Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenario at 2020 have been simulated for the same months; monthly direct, indirect and overall aerosols feedbacks for both BC and MFR have been computed and analyzed. The emission reductions in the MFR 2020 lead to a sensible change in the aerosol overall feedbacks for all variables; a drop of SW over the valley (cooling effect) is visible in both BC and MFR, but it is less significant in the MFR (−5 W m−2) compared to the BC (−45 W m−2). This difference is mainly due to the abatement of SO2 primary emissions, which leads to lower sulfates concentrations scattering radiation, thus mitigates the cooling effect and favors the warming. As SW is higher in the MFR, T2 also increases over land with respect to the BC (the cooling of −0.5 °C estimated in the Base Case almost disappears). The overall effects lead to an enhancement of PM10 concentration in the BC; they are less efficient in the MFR because of lower secondary aerosol concentrations (associated to the reduction of primary PM10 emissions by approximately 20%). Concerning NO2, some localized areas with high reductions in the BC are not visible in the MFR. This is consistent with the increase of T2, which leads to higher photolytic rates compared to the BC. Higher concentrations of NO2 in the MFR with respect to the BC lead to lower O3 concentrations (maximum O3 values drop from +6 ppb to +3 ppb).

A new chemistry option in WRF-Chem v. 3.4 for the simulation of direct and indirect aerosol effects using VBS: evaluation against IMPACT-EUCAARI data

Abstract. A parameterization for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production based on the volatility basis set (VBS) approach has been coupled with microphysics and radiative schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. The new chemistry option called "RACM-MADE-VBS-AQCHEM" was evaluated on a cloud resolving scale against ground-based and aircraft measurements collected during the IMPACT-EUCAARI (Intensive Cloud Aerosol Measurement Campaign – European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air quality interaction) campaign, and complemented with satellite data from MODIS. The day-to-day variability and the diurnal cycle of ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the surface are captured by the model. Surface aerosol mass concentrations of sulfate (SO4), nitrate (NO3), ammonium (NH4), and organic matter (OM) are simulated with correlations larger than 0.55. WRF-Chem captures the vertical profile of the aerosol mass concentration in both the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and free troposphere (FT) as a function of the synoptic condition, but the model does not capture the full range of the measured concentrations. Predicted OM concentration is at the lower end of the observed mass concentrations. The bias may be attributable to the missing aqueous chemistry processes of organic compounds and to uncertainties in meteorological fields. A key role could be played by assumptions on the VBS approach such as the SOA formation pathways, oxidation rate, and dry deposition velocity of organic condensable vapours. Another source of error in simulating SOA is the uncertainties in the anthropogenic emissions of primary organic carbon. Aerosol particle number concentration (condensation nuclei, CN) is overestimated by a factor of 1.4 and 1.7 within the PBL and FT, respectively. Model bias is most likely attributable to the uncertainties of primary particle emissions (mostly in the PBL) and to the nucleation rate. Simulated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are also overestimated, but the bias is more contained with respect to that of CN. The CCN efficiency, which is a characterization of the ability of aerosol particles to nucleate cloud droplets, is underestimated by a factor of 1.5 and 3.8 in the PBL and FT, respectively. The comparison with MODIS data shows that the model overestimates the aerosol optical thickness (AOT). The domain averages (for 1 day) are 0.38 ± 0.12 and 0.42 ± 0.10 for MODIS and WRF-Chem data, respectively. The droplet effective radius (Re) in liquid-phase clouds is underestimated by a factor of 1.5; the cloud liquid water path (LWP) is overestimated by a factor of 1.1–1.6. The consequence is the overestimation of average liquid cloud optical thickness (COT) from a few percent up to 42 %. The predicted cloud water path (CWP) in all phases displays a bias in the range +41–80 %, whereas the bias of COT is about 15 %. In sensitivity tests where we excluded SOA, the skills of the model in reproducing the observed patterns and average values of the microphysical and optical properties of liquid and all phase clouds decreases. Moreover, the run without SOA (NOSOA) shows convective clouds with an enhanced content of liquid and frozen hydrometers, and stronger updrafts and downdrafts. Considering that the previous version of WRF-Chem coupled with a modal aerosol module predicted very low SOA content (secondary organic aerosol model (SORGAM) mechanism) the new proposed option may lead to a better characterization of aerosol–cloud feedbacks.

Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

Integration of prognostic aerosol–cloud interactions in a chemistry transport model coupled offline to a regional climate model

Abstract. To reduce uncertainties and hence to obtain a better estimate of aerosol (direct and indirect) radiative forcing, next generation climate models aim for a tighter coupling between chemistry transport models and regional climate models and a better representation of aerosol–cloud interactions. In this study, this coupling is done by first forcing the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCA4) with ERA-Interim lateral boundaries and sea surface temperature (SST) using the standard cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formulation (hereafter, referred to as the "stand-alone RCA4 version" or "CTRL" simulation). In the stand-alone RCA4 version, CDNCs are constants distinguishing only between land and ocean surface. The meteorology from this simulation is then used to drive the chemistry transport model, Multiple-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), which is coupled online with the aerosol dynamics model, Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications (SALSA). CDNC fields obtained from MATCH–SALSA are then fed back into a new RCA4 simulation. In this new simulation (referred to as "MOD" simulation), all parameters remain the same as in the first run except for the CDNCs provided by MATCH–SALSA. Simulations are carried out with this model setup for the period 2005–2012 over Europe, and the differences in cloud microphysical properties and radiative fluxes as a result of local CDNC changes and possible model responses are analysed. Our study shows substantial improvements in cloud microphysical properties with the input of the MATCH–SALSA derived 3-D CDNCs compared to the stand-alone RCA4 version. This model setup improves the spatial, seasonal and vertical distribution of CDNCs with a higher concentration observed over central Europe during boreal summer (JJA) and over eastern Europe and Russia during winter (DJF). Realistic cloud droplet radii (CD radii) values have been simulated with the maxima reaching 13 μm, whereas in the stand-alone version the values reached only 5 μm. A substantial improvement in the distribution of the cloud liquid-water paths (CLWP) was observed when compared to the satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the boreal summer months. The median and standard deviation values from the "MOD" simulation are closer to observations than those obtained using the stand-alone RCA4 version. These changes resulted in a significant decrease in the total annual mean net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by −5 W m−2 over the domain selected in the study. The TOA net fluxes from the "MOD" simulation show a better agreement with the retrievals from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. The aerosol indirect effects are estimated in the "MOD" simulation in comparison to the pre-industrial aerosol emissions (1900). Our simulations estimated the domain averaged annual mean total radiative forcing of −0.64 W m−2 with a larger contribution from the first indirect aerosol effect (−0.57 W m−2) than from the second indirect aerosol effect (−0.14 W m−2).

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Abstract. Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

Sensitivity of feedback effects in CBMZ/MOSAIC chemical mechanism

To investigate the impact of the aerosol effects on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe for year 2010. We have performed a baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct as well as the indirect aerosol effect. The paper describes the full configuration of the model, the simulation design, special impacts and evaluation. Although low aerosol particle concentrations are detected, the inclusion of the feedback effects results in an increase of solar radiation at the surface over cloudy areas (North-West, including the Atlantic) and decrease over more sunny locations (South-East). Aerosol effects produce an increase of the water vapor and decrease the planet boundary layer height over the whole domain except in the Sahara area, where the maximum particle concentrations are detected. Significant ozone concentrations are found over the Mediterranean area. Simulated feedback effects between aerosol concentrations and meteorological variables and on pollutant distributions strongly depend on the aerosol concentrations and the clouds. Further investigations are necessary with higher aerosol particle concentrations. WRF-Chem variables are evaluated using available hourly observations in terms of performance statistics. Standardized observations from the ENSEMBLE system web-interface were used. The research was developed under the second phase of Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). WRF-Chem demonstrates its capability in capturing temporal and spatial variations of the major meteorological variables and pollutants, except the wind speed over complex terrain. The wind speed bias may affect the accuracy in the chemical predictions (NO2, SO2). The analysis of the correlations between simulated data sets and observational data sets indicates that the simulation with aerosol effects performs slightly better. These results indicate potential importance of the aerosol feedback effects and an urgent need to further improve the representations in current atmospheric models to reduce uncertainties at all scales.

Effects of declining aerosols on projections of zonally averaged tropical precipitation

All of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) assume that future emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors will decline sharply. There is considerable evidence that historically increasing aerosols have substantially affected tropical precipitation, but the effects of projected aerosol declines have received little attention. We compare projections forced by the medium-low RCP4.5 pathway in two subsets of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): one group (HiForc) includes treatments of indirect aerosol effects on cloud albedo and cloud lifetime as well as direct aerosol effects, while the other group (LoForc) only treats direct aerosol effects. In this scenario we find that models in the HiForc group consistently project larger increases in both the mean and inter-hemispheric (north minus south) asymmetry of tropical sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation than do models in the LoForc group. Earlier projections from CMIP3, in which future aerosol declines were assumed to be smaller, behave more like the CMIP5 LoForc group. These results show that projected tropical SST and precipitation changes are sensitive to assumptions about aerosol emissions and indirect aerosol effects. If the real world resembles the HiForc group, then future aerosol changes are likely to be an important (even dominant) driver of tropical precipitation changes under low to moderate forcing scenarios.

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

AbstractWe examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole‐atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS‐E2‐R) and HYCOM (GISS‐E2‐H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5°C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low‐forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO2, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2‐R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

Influence of aerosols in multidecadal SST variability simulations over the North Pacific

AbstractThe influence of aerosol emissions on North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the twentieth century is investigated using a comparison between historical simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol changes. The historical simulations using the Hadley Global Environment Model version 2 show that there is a common externally forced component in relation to the twentieth century North Pacific SST variability. This matches a number of important temporal and spatial characteristics of the observed multidecadal SST variability from the 1920s to 1990s, which is not found in experiments without aerosol changes. This paper explores both direct and indirect aerosol influences, and finds that in this model the aerosol‐cloud interactions dominate the total aerosol forcing of the surface energy budget. These aerosol‐cloud processes were not commonly included in most models in the previous (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3) generation, which may explain why the potential role of aerosols in Pacific variability has not been previously discussed. However, unlike recently reported aerosol drivers of Atlantic SST variability, the aerosol surface radiative forcing pattern does not map directly onto the historical spatial surface radiative and SST changes but is instead modulated by circulation changes to the Aleutian Low. These circulation changes share common features with previously reported studies of natural drivers of Pacific variability, suggesting that both forced and internally generated SST variability may be modulated via the same circulation response.

Aerosol effects on global land surface energy fluxes during 2003–2010

AbstractAerosols affect downward solar radiation, impacting the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and energy budget. Here we apply a coupled modeling framework of a terrestrial ecosystem model and an atmospheric radiative transfer model to evaluate aerosol direct radiative effects on the surface heat fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems during 2003–2010. We find that aerosol loadings decrease the mean latent heat flux by 2.4 Wm−2 (or evapotranspiration by 28 mm) and sensible heat flux by 16 Wm−2. As a result, global mean soil moisture and water evaporative fraction have increased by 0.5% and 4%, respectively. Spatially, aerosol effects are significant in tropical forests and temperate broadleaf evergreen forests. This study is among the first quantifications of aerosols' effects on the heat fluxes of the global terrestrial ecosystems. The study further suggests that both direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects through aerosol‐cloud interactions should be considered to quantify the energy budget of the global terrestrial ecosystems.

Aerosol indirect effects on continental low-level clouds over Sweden and Finland

Abstract. Aerosol effects on low-level clouds over the Nordic Countries are investigated by combining in situ ground-based aerosol measurements with remote sensing data of clouds and precipitation. Ten years of number size distribution data from two aerosol measurement stations (Vavihill, Sweden and Hyytiälä, Finland) provide aerosol number concentrations in the atmospheric boundary layer. This is combined with cloud satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and weather radar data from the Baltic Sea Experiment. Also, how the meteorological conditions affect the clouds is investigated using reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The cloud droplet effective radius is found to decrease when the aerosol number concentration increases, while the cloud optical thickness does not vary with boundary layer aerosol number concentrations. Furthermore, the aerosol–cloud interaction parameter (ACI), a measure of how the effective radius is influenced by the number concentration of cloud active particles, is found to be somewhere between 0.10 and 0.18 and the magnitude of the ACI is greatest when the number concentration of particles with a diameter larger than 130 nm is used. Lower precipitation intensity in the weather radar images is associated with higher aerosol number concentrations. In addition, at Hyytiälä the particle number concentrations is generally higher for non-precipitating cases than for precipitating cases. The apparent absence of the first indirect effect of aerosols on low-level clouds over land raises questions regarding the magnitude of the indirect aerosol radiative forcing.

Analysis of the WRF-Chem contributions to AQMEII phase2 with respect to aerosol radiative feedbacks on meteorology and pollutant distributions

As a contribution to phase2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), eight different simulations for the year 2010 were performed with WRF-Chem for the European domain. The four simulations using RADM2 gas-phase chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol module are analyzed in this paper. The simulations included different degrees of aerosol–meteorology feedback, ranging from no aerosol effects at all to the inclusion of the aerosol direct radiative effect as well as aerosol cloud interactions and the aerosol indirect effect. In addition, a modification of the RADM2 gas phase chemistry solver was tested. The yearly simulations allow characterizing the average impact of the consideration of feedback effects on meteorology and pollutant concentrations and an analysis of the seasonality. Pronounced feedback effects were found for the summer 2010 Russian wildfire episode, where the direct aerosol effect lowered the seasonal mean solar radiation by 20 W m−3 and seasonal mean temperature by 0.25°. This might be considered as a lower limit as it must be taken into account that aerosol concentrations were generally underestimated by up to 50%. The high aerosol concentrations from the wildfires resulted in a 10%–30% decreased precipitation over Russia when aerosol cloud interactions were taken into account. The most pronounced and persistent feedback due to the indirect aerosol effect was found for regions with very low aerosol concentrations like the Atlantic and Northern Europe. The low aerosol concentrations in this area result in very low cloud droplet numbers between 5 and 100 droplets cm−1 and a 50–70% lower cloud liquid water path. This leads to an increase in the downward solar radiation by almost 50%. Over Northern Scandinavia, this results in almost one degree higher mean temperatures during summer. In winter, the decreased liquid water path resulted in increased long-wave cooling and a decrease of the mean temperature by almost the same amount. Precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean was found to be enhanced by up to 30% when aerosol cloud interactions were taken into account. The inclusion of aerosol cloud interactions can reduce the bias or improve correlations of simulated precipitation for some episodes and regions. However, the domain and time averaged performance statistics do not indicate a general improvement when aerosol feedbacks are taken into account. Except for conditions with either very low or very high aerosol concentrations, the impact of aerosol feedbacks on pollutant distributions was found to be smaller than the effect of the choice of the chemistry module or wet deposition implementation.