Inflation Indicators Research Articles

The Effect of the Internet on Inflation: A Research on ASEAN-5 Countries

Information and communication technologies have become widespread with the onset of globalization, affecting almost every facet of human life. Increasing internet usage has made accessing information swift and easy. The internet has also had a significant economic impact and provided financial benefits to nations all around the world to increase productivity and efficiency and reduce costs. Customers had been able to access products at lower prices as a result of the reduction in market entry barriers and search costs, which led to an increase in competition in the markets. The research aimed to investigate the effect of the internet on inflation in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). Consumer prices (annual %) were used as an indicator of inflation, and individuals using the internet (% of population) were used as an indicator of internet usage. Control variables such as unemployment rate, real interest rate, energy use and money growth were also included in the research. Panel data analysis was performed using the data of ASEAN-5 countries covering the period of 1994-2014. Pooled least squares method (Pooled OLS) was applied to obtain an estimation of the model. As a result, it is found that as internet usage increases, inflation rates decrease in ASEAN-5 countries.

Influence of unconventional monetary policy on agricultural commodities futures: network connectedness and dynamic spillovers of returns and volatility

ABSTRACT Our research examines connectedness landscape and the dynamic spillovers of volatility and returns in the network comprising eleven agricultural commodities and US shadow short rate in a quality of inflation indicator, observed in monetary policymaking. We use daily data from November 2000 to May 2021. We document monetary policy as a net transmitter of spillover for both return and volatility of agricultural commodities. We find significant volatility connectedness among agricultural commodities. The connectedness is shown to be of a time-varying nature, exhibiting considerable increases during periods of market turmoil. The results of this paper provide relevant insights into the interrelations of US monetary policy and agricultural commodity prices, being, hence, potentially useful for commodity investors, brokers and dealers, as well as for market regulators designing policy solutions for financial stability enhancements.

Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries

Low inflation and high economic growth are two of the main macroeconomic targets that all countries hope to reach. The reciprocal relationship between inflation and growth is currently an important debate in the literature. Although early studies generally focused on the view that inflation had no effect on growth or that it had a positive effect on growth, the upward trend of inflation in many countries in the 1970s and 1980s led to a change in direction in the inflation-growth debate. This discussion shows that the way inflation affects growth is directly related to its level. Therefore, if a certain inflation threshold value is exceeded, the view that inflation will affect growth negatively comes to the fore. In addition, the effect of economic growth on inflation is another dimension of the inflation-growth debate. In this context, it is important to examine the inflation growth spiral in the context of causality. In this study, the relationship between inflation and growth was investigated between the years 1996 and 2019 in 27 EU countries using Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality approach. In the analysis, two variables were used as an indicator of inflation. These are consumer prices Index (CPI) and GDP deflator. The results show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship from inflation to growth and from growth to inflation for both inflation indicators. 

Economic Causes Of Theft In 25 OECD Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

There are many reasons for crime, including biological, psychological, economic, and social. The reasons for the crime may vary according to the types of crime. While some types of crimes are mostly committed for economic reasons, many factors other than economic factors can be predominantly influential in committing some types of crimes. However, it can be thought that economic factors are practically based on most problems arising from social and psychological factors. For this reason, it is essential to investigate the economic causes of crime types. In this study context, the economic reasons for theft crime which is mostly committed for economic reasons, were investigated by the System Generalized Moments Method (GMM) for selected countries (25 OECD countries) that are members of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. While determining the OECD member countries, the data set of all the variables (unemployment, Gini coefficient as an indicator of income inequality, consumer price index as an indicator of inflation, social expenditures, and population) included in the analysis was examined, and a standard analysis period (2013-2018) was determined according to these data. Thus, the effect of these variables on theft crime was investigated for the period 2013-2018. In the literature, economic variables were mostly used in the studies on the subject, but there were not many studies investigating the effect of the social expenditure variable on theft crime. For this reason, it is thought that the study will contribute to the literature. According to the system GMM analysis results, while unemployment, inflation (consumer price index), and the Gini coefficient positively affect theft crime, social expenditures and population variables have no effect.

Construction of Inflation Forecasting Model Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Bayesian Model

The high explanatory power of the first-order lag term of inflation in the inflation explanatory factor is that, on the one hand, the calculation of annual inflation indicators makes the inflation values of adjacent months cover the high correlation caused by the common price increase, and on the other hand, it also shows that people’s perception of inflation is high. Some adaptability is expected. Although there are many Bayesian models available, due to the limitation of high-dimensional characteristics of the economy, most of the current inflation forecasting researches focus on a variety of generalized naive Bayesian models. By summarizing and analyzing the structural characteristics, learning methods, and classification principles of different Bayesian models, this paper finds out the important factors that affect the performance of the models and provides a theoretical basis for further improving the performance of Bayesian inflation forecasting. In this paper, the empirical mode decomposition method is introduced into inflation forecasting, and EEMD has obvious advantages in dealing with nonstationary and nonlinear time series and can decompose the signal according to the time scale characteristics of the data itself. Decompose the original time series step by step to generate eigenmode functions with different time scales. It is divided into high-frequency sequence and low-frequency sequence. Use rolling method and iterative method to construct subsamples for the sample data in this sample interval, forecast the inflation rate of each subsample interval in the next 12 months, and then compare the predicted value with the actual value to obtain a certain constructive conclusion. The predicted value is relatively close to the real value, which has theoretical and practical significance, and the predicted results obtained have no obvious regularity, but the root mean square error can be kept within 60%. By comparing the predicted value and the actual value, it can be seen that the prediction effect of the EEMD model is better.

Inflation in Russia: Differences Between Official Data and Population's Perception

The article is devoted to the study of the reasons for the formation of differences between the official measurement of inflation in the Russian economy and the subjective perception of inflationary processes by the population.The introductory part of the article shows that the population's estimates of inflation in Russia (perceived inflation) are more than twice as high as official data. There is no consensus in the scientific literature on the explanation of this bias, which determines the relevance of the study. Due to the high level of observed inflation, households may believe that the real yield of financial instruments is negative and prefer consumption to savings, including through loans. The purpose of the article is to determine the causes of discrepancies between official inflation indicators and estimates of price growth for goods and services by the population.The main part of the article analyzes the time series of the Rosstat consumer price index from 2014 to 2021, data from the Bank of Russia on inflation perceived by the population, macroeconomic indicators of the International Monetary Fund, including the dynamics of price indices of 12 groups of goods and services in 86 countries. Methods of descriptive, correlation and regression analysis were used. There are two main cognitive reasons why the level of inflation perceived by the population exceeds the official one. Firstly, in the course of surveys, according to the author, respondents often incorrectly determine the time frame (perceiving the price increase not for one year, but for a period of about two years). Secondly, the population (households as respondents) pays attention primarily to the goods that have risen in price most significantly (further increasing the gap in estimates). In addition, the population perceives the end of discounts on individual goods as a multiple overall price increase. Based on a cross-country comparative analysis of price indices, the author suggests that the increase in the variability of the relative price index leads to an increase in discrepancies between official inflation data and estimates of inflation by the population.In the final part of the article, conclusions are formulated – the author's positions on the problem under consideration, according to which it is proposed to increase the financial and statistical literacy of Russians in order to reduce differences in estimates of inflation by official statistics and the population.

Outside and Inside Money Detection towards Post-Covid-19 Steady-State Inflation in 12 Countries

This study aims to analyze the leading indicators of Inflation in The Country With The Largest Money Supply and compare Inflation before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study uses secondary data. In time series from 2001 to 2020 and monthly time series data before and during the Covid -19 pandemic, they use the ARDL Panel analysis model and the Differential Test. ARDL Panel analysis shows that the only country capable of being a leading indicator for the stability of the inflation rate is Turkey; this is because all the variables or hands in the study, namely (money supply, interest rates, exports, exchange rates, and GDP) have a significant effect on Inflation. In contrast, the consumption variable has no significant impact on Inflation. The Difference Test analysis shows no significant difference in Inflation and the money supply before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in the country with the largest money supply in the world. Keywords: money supply; steady-state Inflation.

Mathematical Model & Feasibility Study for Construction an Invested Refinery of 100,000 (bbl / Day) in AL-Nasiriya Governorate

A mathematical Model and feasibility study of construction an invested Refinery with 100,000 (Bbl/day) in AL-Nasiriya governorate was performed. The project is composed of three Units, Atmospheric Column Distillation Unit (CDU), Catalytic Reformer Unit (CRU) and Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking Unit (RFCC) that produce different products. Based on the Platts prices of petroleum products which was provided by State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) for May of this year and by standard specifications and technical information of Petroleum Research and Development Center (PRDC), Material balance for feed and products as well as optimization process using LINGO software for these three Units were calculated in order to determine influential financial parameters: (NPV), (IRR), (PI) and Payback period of the project. Different calculation scenarios were prepared taking into account discount of crude oil and products prices, inflation indicator of Capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operation expenditure (OPEX) in addition to extending the life of the project and increase in the cost of capital as well. These scenarios are illustrated as followings: -
 1- The refinery was considered non-feasible in case of the crude feed price is taken (65$) and the products prices still constant. Discounted of oil feed was taken gradually by 10% and the products prices stay constant turns the project to be feasible at (50%) discounted oil price which gives positive financial parameters as can be seen in scenario (1), (2) but no longer feasible when increasing inflation by (3%) and (5%) as shown in scenario (3) and (4).
 2- The price of crude oil feed was taken constant (65$) and the products prices were gradually increased by (10%) till (50%) with constant other parameters gives negative financial parameters means non feasibility as can be seen in scenario (5).
 3- Increasing products prices by 10% and discount crude oil price by 10% together makes the project feasible at (25%) for both as shown in scenario (6). Conversely, when inflation was taken into account for OPEX and cost of capital, the project shifted to be feasible at (40%) for both crude oil and products as seen in scenario (7, 8, 9). The crude oil feed price and products was increased gradually by (10%) and decreased by the same percent. Both scenarios give negative financial parameters as shown in (10) and (11).
 4- Extending life of project from (4) to (6) years and let other parameters constant including CAPEX to study the impact on the financial parameters. It is noticed that the refinery gives negative income compared to previous period of project in scenarios (12), (13). The cost of capital was increased from 2,100 million to 3000 million with no change in the other parameters gives negative income as seen in scenario (14) and (15). On the other hand, cost of capital and life of project were changed together makes the project worse income due to decline in the financial parameters as illustrated in scenario (14) and (16).

The Cost of a Newborn Set and a First-Grader Set as Indicators of The Families With Children Material Well-Being in The Russian Regions

The material well-being of families with children is the basis of the State family policy. In addition to the socio-demographic characteristics of households (children, age of children, number of parents, etc.) that affect the material well-being of families, an important criterion is the state of the household budget in high-cost periods of the life cycle. The authors developed a list of goods for two events when the family budget can be under serious pressure – the birth of a child, the first-grader to school. We also estimated what proportion of the family budget was spent on these sets in families with different numbers of children. Depending on the number of children in the household, the cost of a newborn set is equivalent to 1.4-2.5 monthly income per family member, the cost of a first-grader set is 1.2-2.1. The share of costs, depending on the number of children in the household, for the set of a newborn is up to 40%, for the set of a first grader – up to 34%. As one of the tools for assessing the financial situation of families with children in Russia, we propose not only to introduce a relative price in household budget expenditures but also to estimate the average consumer price indices for sets of goods for children. The results of the study showed that there is significant differentiation in the cost of a newborn and a first grader sets between regions. In most regions, the growth in prices on goods included in the considered sets was higher than the indicator of general inflation and inflation in the group of non-food products. At the same time, the rate of increase in the cost of a newborn's set is higher than that of a first grader's set. Monitoring the inflation of sets of children's goods can be used as the basis for indexing event-related benefits and payments within the framework of state family policy at different levels. Currently, related payments cover between one-third and one-half of the newborn set cost and the first-grader set cost.

Глобальні тренди трансформації світової фінансової архітектури

The article is devoted to the determination of global trends of the world financial architecture transformation. The views of scientists on the term "world financial architecture" were considered, the institutional and economic aspect of this term was studied in the context of financial globalization. It was determined that the global economy is at the stage of significant financial and currency crises. This is accompanied by the weakness of the financial sector in emerging markets, the increase in the number of offshore financial centres, the limitation of the international institutions’ ability to provide financial support to developing countries, etc. Reasonably, the global financial architecture and the need for its transformational shifts directly depends on the trends in the world financial market and the stability of the world economy, which has been experiencing crisis phenomena in recent years. The global economy is experiencing persistently high inflation, the highest in last decade, amid heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions in energy and commodity markets caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. An analysis of world commodity price trends is provided. It determines the high inflation of consumer prices, that is especially high in developing countries. It was determined that the national regulators of developed countries apply a stricter monetary policy and curtail measures to support the economy. It was concluded that the situation on the world commodity markets, high inflation, the increase in the cost of borrowing and the weaker growth of the leading economies significantly undermine the growth prospects of developing countries with emerging markets. This group of countries is in a more unfavourable condition than others and undermines the global stability of the world financial architecture. It is necessary to carry out stabilization measures if inflation indicators will grow not only in developing countries, but also in developed countries, whose destabilizing effect on the global economic system will be more impressive.

Methods for Indexing the Income of the Population with an Increase in Consumer Prices

The article deals with the formation of money income of the population, changes in the formation of consumer goods and needs for them, including under the influence of pricing, the structural volumes of goods offered for sale with different consumer properties and values. The problem of dynamics and the level of growth in prices for consumer goods is considered from the standpoint of disclosing the relationship between the emerging incomes of the population, inflation, methods of indexation and compensatory regulation. The formation of the incomes of the population of Russia is characterized not only by an insufficiency in relation to existing needs, but also by many contradictions that restrain their correspondence with the goals of improving welfare. At the same time, the need to identify the changes in trends and patterns taking place in the economy and social practice becomes a condition for the possible improvement of the tasks being solved not only in increasing the income of the population, but also in regulating them in consumption and efficiency of use. In practice and in research results, the lack of a systematic nature of the tasks being solved is recorded (generalized) both in price regulation and in the indexation of income in guaranteed rates corresponding to the dynamics of real inflation indicators, its level positions, which are taken into account not only in the emerging wages in monetary form, but also in various benefits that are paid by the state. The solution of these problems requires further detailed scientific research of the processes actually occurring in economic practice with the use of methods for indexing the income of the population with an increase in consumer prices. The supply of consumer goods on the market, which does not have a profitable orientation towards their purchases, in our opinion, will always exacerbate the problem of choosing methods of price regulation, both on the part of the state and commodity producers.

Changes in lung inflation in asthma in patients with osmotic airway hyperresponsiveness

The scientific literature does not provide enough information on whether bronchial hyperresponsiveness to hypoosmotic stimulus in patients with asthma can lead to more pronounced disturbances of regional lung ventilation.Aim. to characterize lung inflation in asthma patients with osmotic airway hyperresponsiveness.Methods. The lung inflation was studied by body plethysmography, as well as by three-dimensional volumetry, planimetry, and multispiral CT densitometry in 24 patients (group 1) with persistent mild asthma and osmotic airway hyperresponsiveness, identified by the bronchoprovocation test with inhalation of distilled water (IDW) (the average ДРБУ1 was —21.1 ± 3.2%). The comparison group (group 2) consisted of 49 patients with no response to IDW (the average ДББУ1 was —3.7 ± 0.5%; p = 0.00001).Results. Group 1 had lower lung function (FEVj was 83.6 ± 4.5%; FEF50 was 58.1 ± 5.8%) at baseline in comparison with the group 2 (96.7 ± 2.2%, p = 0.0042 and 75.5 ± 2.2%, p = 0.016, respectively) and higher indices of lung inflation at body plethysmography (RV was 153.2 ± 12.5 and 127.5 ± 4.0%, respectively; p = 0,027; RV/TLC was 128.8 ± 5.5 and 109.9 ± 2.8%, respectively; p = 0.015). According to three-dimensional volumetry, the indicators of expiratory lung inflation (526.0 ± 117.8 vox) and average residual inflation of both lungs (13.1 ± 2.6 vox) in group 1 were significantly higher than in group 2 (301.5 ± 55.8 vox, р < 0.05 and 9.1 ± 1.6 vox,р < 0,05, respectively). The patients with osmotic airway hyperresponsiveness also showed higher values of the expiratory area in the middle zone (235.3 ± 29.4 and 149.2 ± 14.9 pix, respectively; p = 0.00 47) and the lower zone (292.3 ± 37.9 and 178.6 ± 18.6 pix, respectively; p = 0.0034) of the lungs.Conclusion. Asthma patients with osmotic airway hyperresponsiveness have lung hyperinflation with impaired lung ventilation predominantly in the middle and lower zones.

Reliable Assessment of Inflation as an Objective Necessity

The article is devoted to laying out methodological foundations for assessing the level of inflation in modern Russia. It justifies using aggregate (integral) indices to characterize price processes and determine strategic development priorities.The use of inflation indicators used in the international practice in Russia does not provide the necessary level of reliability of information about the ongoing inflationary processes in various sectors of the national economy. It does not allow us to objectively assess the current state of socio-economic development to timely capture and account for changes in the trends of strategic development. As a result, the quality of analytical work, first and foremost carried out by real sector development institutions, is reduced, which affects the effectiveness of decisions made by economic entities and public administration bodies.The authors argue that the aggregate inflation index shows a higher degree of variability in the dynamics of inflationary processes than the consumer price index since it accounts for changes in the most significant sectors of the economy, the social sphere and the financial sector.The article proposes an improved method for constructing an aggregate inflation index based on mathematical and statistical methods. It is shown that the use of an aggregated inflation index increases the objectivity of the assessment of economic growth and social progress, which makes it possible to more quickly predict the dynamics of costs and results with a sufficiently high degree of forecast accuracy.The need for regular adjustment of the composition of private indicators taken into account in the formation of the aggregate inflation index is justified by including new, more relevant indicators and excluding those that have lost their relevance.Results of the study are the conclusions obtained by analyzing the dynamic series of aggregate and partial inflation indices formed on the basis of the methodology proposed by the authors.

Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Small, Open Economies? Empirical Evidence from the Solomon Islands

This paper examines the role of inflation expectations in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island Country, using the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve model. The study applies the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate the Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve model using quarterly time series data for the period 2003–2017. The study confirms the existence of a Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve for Solomon Islands and finds that both backward-looking and forward-looking processes matter for inflation. Fuel prices and output gap are important indicators of current inflation. The study highlights key areas to further investigate including the weak monetary transmission mechanism and to examine the exchange rate pass through effect onto domestic prices. Studies on the role of inflation expectations in small, open, economies of the Pacific, such as Solomon Islands, is limited. This paper fills this void in literature by using quarterly time-series data to build a Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve model for Solomon Islands.

Evaluation of Socio-Economic Fragility Index against Disasters: Example Turkey Provinces

Objective: SFI (Socio-Economic Fragility Index) is represented by indicators of poverty, human insecurity, addiction, illiteracy, social inequality, unemployment, inflation, dependency, debt and environmental degradation. This index reflects the relative weaknesses or deterioration conditions that exacerbate the direct effects caused by disasters or hazardous events. Methods: The study is a semi-quantitative study and the index calculation method is used by weighting from a number of subindicators.The study covers the period of 2015-2017. Turkey has been applied to all provinces. Results: When the index averages of the provinces were examined for the 2015-2017 period, the first four provinces with the highest index value were Şırnak,Batman, Siirt and Mardin. In addition, no province was included in the low index category while 26 provinces were in the high category. The remaining 55 provinces were in the middle level. Accordingly, 32% of our provinces were in the high index category, while 68% were in the middle index category. Conclusion: It is observed that provinces with high SFI values are generally concentrated in the East and Southeast regions. Additionally it is remarkable that provinces with high index values generally have problems such as unemployment, income inequality, dependence on agricultural growth, deprivation of basic health facilities and under-5 malnutrition.The studies to be carried out in the recommended areas for the provinces will help to reduce the socio-economic vulnerability of the provinces against disasters.

Forecasting inflation in Latin American countries using a SARIMA–LSTM combination

Inflation forecasting has been and continues to be an important issue for the world’s economies. Governments, through their central banks, watch closely inflation indicators to make national decisions and policies. This study proposes to forecast the inflation rate in five Latin American emerging economies based on the commonly used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach combined with long short-term memory (LSTM). Additionally, we run forecasts based on fuzzy inference systems (FISs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), artificial neuro-FIS, and SARIMA ANN as benchmarks to compare the performance of the combines SARIMA–LSTM. The combined SARIMA–LSTM captures the linear aspects of the time series as well as the nonlinear aspects. The results indicate that the proposed model based on the combination of SARIMA and LSTM has higher accuracy in inflation forecasts over the SARIMA and LSTM separately.

Banking Sector Development and Economic Growth in Nepal: Test of Cointegration

This paper examined the causal relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in Nepal using annual time series data from 1975 to 2019. The per capita real GDP growth rate is taken as the proxy of economic growth. Private sector credit is used as the indicator of banking sector development and inflation, trade openness, and government spending as control variables. Using the Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction method (VECM) in regression analysis, the study reveals that the development of the banking sector in Nepal is positively contributing to economic growth through efficient allocation of financial resources. The findings from this study conclude that there is a unidirectional causality running from banking sector development to economic growth in the long run, which supports the supply-leading hypothesis. However, this study found no support for causality running from economic growth to banking sector development neither in the long run nor in the short run. Therefore, the findings from this study recommend policies that increase the reach of the banking services to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and individual investors, even in the rural areas of the country.

Ефективність сільського господарства України: порівняльний аналіз в розрізі країн

Abstract. Introduction. Agriculture plays prominent role to supply people with food and industry with raw. The development of this branch depends on as economic conjuncture as nature conditions. Ukraine agriculture have developed in two directions during the period of 1991-2018. After several years of declining this branch has started reviving since 2009. The question is how successful this process is flowing. Various investigations cover analysis of dynamics, structure, correlations between indicators, forecasting and juxtaposing with other economic branches. Studying experience of other economies that had downs, but then accumulated their strengths and made economical leap, is the example for own start in development. What caused the growth and what made countries prosperous? This experience must be studied and implemented by scientists, government, and farmers. Most nowadays successful countries started from revision of existing styles of agricultural management and farm holding. They initiated reforms and adopted laws that had to support development of farms. Some of countries, that have been under influence of Soviet Union's style of management, being independent now are in the category of countries with middle or high world level of income. In contrary, Ukraine during almost thirty years of independence is fighting problems in economic development caused by negative factors including crises. To study features of countries’ growth and eliminate influence of inflation or incomparable indicators on results of analysis it is reasonable to investigate the same indicators for the similar period in determined currency. This article presents comparison results made for Ukraine Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia despite their size and political preferences. Information for analysis used in this exploration is on the World Bank official site. Data cover the period of 1995-2019 years. Purpose. The main aim of this article is to compare indicators of agriculture development in Ukraine with other countries in order to find how successful and sufficient economic efforts of Ukraine are to raise agriculture sector on the higher level of development. Results. Conducted analysis revealed that other countries compared with Ukraine get bigger value added per worker or per unit of agriculture land. Moreover, they not only feed own country, but also sell their production abroad. Conclusions. Ukraine has the biggest soils squares to plant crops, vegetable, fruit, but it gets the least amount of profit from land usage. Ukraine has positive tendency in agriculture development, but as comparison with other countries proved the existing way of land using or cultivation, farm holding, and agriculture management is insufficient to become a prosperous country. Crop and livestock production need to be investigated deeper.

Інфляція в Україні: причини, тенденції та шляхи подолання

Inflationary processes in our time have a negative impact on all aspects of society. In particular, inflation hinders economic growth, destroys the monetary system, contributes to the devaluation of human labor and promotes the release of money abroad.The purpose of the article is to study inflation in Ukraine, identify patterns of its development and identify ways to overcome it in modern conditions.The main patterns of development of inflation processes in Ukraine are highlighted and the analysis of the main inflation indicators during 2014-2020 is carried out. As a result, there has been a trend of slowing inflation since 2017 in Ukraine due to the strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate and the general decline in world energy prices. The main factors influencing the consumer price index in Ukraine during the study period are also identified and the values are compared with each other for the study period. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on expected inflation is taken into account.In addition, the factors that accelerate and curb inflation in Ukraine are highlighted. Factors accelerating inflation included: credit expansion; oversaturation of money circulation channels; high demand for goods and services; increasing the level of production costs; seasonality. Factors holding back inflation included: strengthening the national currency; rising prices for basic products; raising social minimums; rapid growth of money supply associated with bank lending, etc.Based on the considered points of view on the problem of overcoming inflation in the country, the ways of overcoming inflationary processes are proposed, which are aimed at compensating for the devaluation of the population's money and stabilizing the country's money turnover.

Revisit the relationship between two inflation indicators: Case of Pakistan

This research paper determines the association between two inflation indicators, consumer price index and wholesale price index in three groups' i.e. general group, food group, and non-food group. The objective is to f ind out if the relationship is unidirectional or bidirectional between CPI and WPI in all groups. For this purpose monthly data from July 1971 to December 2019 has been used. Furthermore, Cointegration has been calculated via Johansen's cointegration test on time series data to discover if the long-run aff iliation occurs between the variables. Before cointegration, it is essential to discover the stationarity of the variables for which the augmented dickey fuller test has been used at the f irst difference. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is also employed to check for the disturbances of divergence or convergence f inally Granger causality/Block exogenity test is applied to discover causality between variables, it also specifies unidirectional relationship or bidirectional relationship. As a result, it is found that there is a signif icant co-integration equation which indicates that there is an existence of long-run association amongst variables. On the other hand, there is also an indication of the short-run relationship among variables. Finally, a two-way causal relationship is indicated by the granger causality test, between CPI and WPI in general and food group and one-way causal association between CPI and WPI in the non-food group.