Hydrological Indicators Research Articles

Adaptive assessment of reservoir scheduling to hydrometeorological comprehensive dry and wet condition evolution in a multi-reservoir region of southeastern China

The role of reservoirs in water resource management is becoming crucial for flood control and drought mitigation in any basin because of the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events attributed to global climate change and human activities. Therefore, evaluating the relationship between reservoir storage (discharge) and wet (dry) evolution is crucial. This study explores the time-delay effect and spatial heterogeneity of reservoir discharge and storage on dry and wet conditions in several basins of Lin’an District (LAD) in southeastern China. An integrated methodology is developed in this study to assess the relationship by a monthly streamflow simulation model, the meteorological and hydrological comprehensive drought index (CDI) using a Frank Copula function, and an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework were used to develop a model to forecast dry and wet conditions and to evaluate the key factors affecting their changes. Results from the study indicate that the monthly water balance model can simulate the monthly hydrological processes with relatively high accuracy in the LAD region. The CDI reflects the intensity of wet and dry events more precisely, thoroughly, sensitively, and consistently by combining the benefits of hydrological and meteorological drought indicators. Precipitation, evaporation, streamflow, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were the main contributing factors influencing the above 80% accuracy of the wet and dry forecast models. The average correlation between the outflow of each reservoir in LAD and CDI is 0.47, which is higher than the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Moreover, the delay in months of dry (wet) events based on SPI, SRI, and CDI are 0.45 (0.41), 1.07 (0.65), and 0.87 (0.60), respectively. It suggests reservoirs are less capable of adaptive scheduling for drought events than for wet events, and they respond most quickly to SPI defined events. The results can provide scientific and technological support for water safety and security in the study area.

A comprehensive assessment of meteorological–hydrological indicator changes and their driving forces from a multi-temporal and spatial scale perspective

ABSTRACT Runoff is a pivotal ecohydrological cycle feature. Investigating watershed runoff change and its influencing factors from multi-temporal and spatial angles is crucial for water ecology control. The study analyzes hydrological and meteorological changes using the indicators of hydrological alteration and the range of variation approach (IHA–RVA) and RClimDex to explore their dynamic relationship. Finally, using the soil and water assessment tool to quantify climate and human contributions to runoff temporally and spatially, with validation using Budyko-based elasticity coefficients. Results showed that (1) most of the meteorological indices show an upward trend, a change attributable mainly to strong human activity and global warming. The overall hydrological indicators show a moderate degree of change (50.70%). (2) PRCPTOT (the annual total precipitation) and 30-day minimum demonstrate a negative correlation coefficient of 0.91 in the meteorological–hydrological response. (3) On annual/seasonal scales, human activities such as hydraulic projects and land use/cover changes (LUCC) dominate runoff changes. On a monthly scale, climate change prevails in March and November due to temperature/rainfall fluctuations, while human activities dominate other months. Spatially, climate change and LUCC mainly impact runoff in the southeast. The study offers references to improve water management in the Jialing River Basin, effectively addressing the negative impacts of human activities on runoff.

Research on the Index Calculation Method for the Impact of Drought on Water Quality in the Nakdong River, Korea

The impact of drought is intensifying due to climate change, leading to significant environmental consequences, particularly concerning river water quality. While drought is typically classified as meteorological or hydrological, studies assessing its environmental impacts remain limited. Drought-induced hydrological alterations in rivers often degrade water quality, necessitating the development of an environmental drought index. This study introduces a novel methodology for calculating an index to evaluate the effects of drought on river water quality, specifically applied to tributaries of the Nakdong River in South Korea. The index was constructed by reviewing existing water quality and drought indices, selecting relevant parameters, and weighting each factor following the National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index (NSFWQI) methodology. Factors integrated into the index encompass both meteorological and hydrological indicators, with priority given to variables measurable in real time. Real-time parameters—such as flow rate, cumulative precipitation, days without rainfall, and sensor-based metrics (pH, electrical conductivity [EC], dissolved oxygen [DO], and total organic carbon [TOC])—were incorporated. Additionally, for rivers with upstream dams, dam discharge data were included to reflect its influence on flow conditions. The applicability of the calculated index was assessed by comparing index values to observed water quality data. A class interval structure was implemented to enhance the index’s usability across diverse riverine conditions. Furthermore, the utility of the index was validated by comparing it to the basin’s target water quality, thereby assessing its sensitivity to drought-induced water quality deterioration. The environmental drought index proposed in this study enables the proactive and real-time monitoring of water quality under drought conditions. When applied to 10 tributaries of the Nakdong River, the index demonstrated a clear correlation between drought conditions and water quality deterioration. This index provides a practical tool for river management, facilitating early response strategies to mitigate water quality impacts associated with environmental drought.

Seasonality and Predictability of Hydrometeorological and Water Chemistry Indicators in Three Coastal Forested Watersheds

Forests are recognized for sustaining good water chemistry within landscapes. This study focuses on the water chemistry parameters and their hydrological predictability and seasonality (as a component of predictability) in watersheds of varying scales, with and without human (forest management) activities on them, using Colwell indicators for data collected during 2011–2019. The research was conducted in three forested watersheds located at the US Forest Service Santee Experimental Forest in South Carolina USA. The analysis revealed statistically significant (α = 0.05) differences between seasons for stream flow, water table elevation (WTE), and all water chemistry indicators in the examined watersheds for the post-Hurricane Joaquin period (2015–2019), compared to the 2011–2014 period. WTE and flow were identified as having the greatest influence on nitrogen concentrations. During extreme precipitations events, such as hurricanes or tropical storms, increases in WTE and flow led to a decrease in the concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), NH4-N, and NO3-N+NO2-N, likely due to dilution. Colwell indicators demonstrated higher predictability (P) for most hydrologic and water chemistry indicators in the 2011–2014 period compared to 2015–2019, indicating an increase in the seasonality component compared to constancy (C), with a larger decrease in C/P for 2015–2019 compared to 2011–2014. The analysis further highlighted the influence of extreme hydrometeorological events on the changing predictability of hydrology and water chemistry indicators in forested streams. The results demonstrate the influence of hurricanes on hydrological behavior in forested watersheds and, thus, the seasonality and predictability of water chemistry variables within and emanating out of the watershed, potentially influencing the downstream ecosystem. The findings of this study can inform forest watershed management in response to natural or anthropogenic disturbances.

A novel structural equation modelling-based framework for identifying hydrometeorological multi-factor interaction

Study regionThe Hanjiang River Basin, China. Study focusIn this study, we proposed a new integrated framework based on structural equation models to identify hydrometeorological multi-factor interaction relationship. The spatiotemporal distribution and interaction relationship of hydrological, meteorological, and vegetation indicators in the Hanjiang River Basin were analyzed based on the national long-series monitoring data. New hydrological insights for the regionThe findings reveal that: (1) The rainfall is the maximum in the lower reaches (968.87 mm), and the runoff depth fluctuated the most in the lower reaches (1181.70 mm to 2934.88 mm). (2) Dew point temperature is an important influencing factor of rainfall in the upper and middle reaches, and relative humidity is an important influencing factor of rainfall in the lower reaches. High vegetation cover is an important influencing factor for runoff depth. (3) Rainfall and runoff depth are significantly negatively affected by meteorological characteristics, with effect values ranging from −0.24 to −0.68. However, runoff depth is positively affected by rainfall, relative humidity, vegetation characteristics, and canopy interception, with effect values ranging from 0.02 to 0.58. The size and mode of influence have significant regional differences.

The ecological operation of ChiTan hydropower station based on hydrological alteration using the PCA method

ABSTRACT Water infrastructure affects the quantity, quality, and environment of water. During reservoir construction, only the social-economic benefits were considered and the health of the downstream river was neglected. Due to the severe downstream river system, the operators and managers faced the challenge of the downstream ecosystem. Many scholars are concerned with the reservoir's optimum functioning, which considers social and economic advantages. Numerous significant opinions and research findings are being presented on ecological scheduling at the moment, both in China and overseas, which surely deepen the connotations of ecological scheduling and serve as the research basis and critical reference of this work. The influence of hydropower development on hydrological conditions, the categorization and calculation of environmental runoff, and the building and solution of ecological scheduling models are all discussed and researched in this work. The study examined how the ChiTan hydropower project influenced the Jinxi River's flow. The total hydrologic alteration calculated using RVA is 50.53%. The component analysis is also utilized to eliminate the statistical redundancy in the hydrologic indicators. The indicators’ monthly flow for July and August's mean minimum flow for 7 days are relevant indicators for the Jinxi River basin's hydrologic modification regime.

Assessment of agroclimatic resources in agricultural landscapes of the Turkestan region of the Republic of Kazakhstan Askha

The article presents the scientific results of a study assessing agroclimatic resources in agricultural landscapes located in various natural zones of the Turkestan region of the RK (Republic of Kazakhstan). The research methods included classical and modern methods of mathematical statistics using digital technology and time series graphs to develop a mathematical model for climatic and hydrological indicators. Assessment of changes in indicators of agroclimatic resources in agricultural landscapes for 1941–2020 showed that the sum of air temperature, evaporation from the water surface and radiation balance of the daytime surface, characterising the energy resources of landscapes, increased by 10–15%, which contributes to increase in the total water consumption of agricultural land by 10–12%. Meanwhile, the decreasing tendency of the amount of precipitation by 5–10% in all natural climatic zones of the region has become one of the factors leading to a decrease in the natural moisture supply of the soil and vegetation cover of landscapes by 10–15%, acting as important environment-forming and ecological functions. The combined impact of these environment-forming factors has become the key reason for the increase in the deficit of agricultural land water consumption by 15–20%, the reduction of solar energy costs for the soil-forming process by 10–15% and the increase of the climate aridisation, and has become a signal for the need in the safety of agricultural activities, requiring the development of a set of adaptive measures to mitigate this process in the region.

Participatory multi-criteria decision making for optimal siting of multipurpose artificial reservoirs

Water resources management is a crucial activity due to climate change concerns and increasing water scarcity. The increase of water storage by building new artificial reservoirs is one of the most common solutions to fulfill the community's needs for potable water, energy, irrigation, and prevention of flood risk. The siting of the reservoirs is usually assessed based on topographical and hydrological considerations. However, there are additional crucial factors, often disregarded in common engineering top-down design approaches, that should be considered to determine suitable locations, such as bio-physical, socio-economic, regulatory, and environmental factors, especially where there are competing interests in the use of territory. Involving the communities in the initial stages of the decision-making process is therefore crucial. In this work, we present a methodology, based on multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA), for identifying the optimal locations for new reservoirs while simultaneously addressing all the aforementioned factors through community engagement. The presented method aims at overcoming two major challenges in existing works, i.e., retrieving quantitative information from the participatory approach and going beyond standard hydro-morphological suitability of a dam site. In a first step, an algorithm assesses a large number of sites using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Then, MCDA is conducted to rank all potential locations. The selection criteria are defined quantitatively, based on a territorial analysis combined with hydrological modelling. The criteria include: geometric and morphological aspects (reservoir volume, etc.), hydrological indicators (water balance, potential flood mitigation), anthropization (population, infrastructures, etc.), landscape, archaeological heritage, ecology, environmental components and natural hazards. A web-based survey tool based on the pairwise comparison is developed to engage the community in the decision-making process, allowing them to express their perspectives on the relative significance of each criterion. The application of this methodology is demonstrated through a case study in the Pesa river watershed, Italy, showcasing its effectiveness in identifying the most suitable reservoir locations while targeting the highest environmental preservation and community acceptance. The results show that sole engineering criteria might not reflect the sensibility of the community and that variations of the size of the dam can lead to distinct trade-offs between costs and benefits where interference with impact elements occurs.

A framework for analyzing the most relevant indicators of ecohydrology in a changing environment

ABSTRACT Human activities and climatic changes have altered the hydrological ecosystem of the Min River Basin and affected in-river biodiversity. In this paper, the year of abrupt hydrological change was identified using multiple tests, and the drivers of ecohydrological change were quantified in conjunction with the Budyko coupled hydrothermal equilibrium theory. Combined with ecological flow indicators (ecological surplus (ES) and ecological deficit (ED)) calculated based on discharge hydrographs and multiple hydrological indicators (ES/ED), the degree of river hydrological alteration in the Min River Basin was comprehensively evaluated, and its impacts on in-river biodiversity analyzed. The results of the study showed that: (1) according to the Budyko theory, the influence of human activities on the runoff changes in the Min River Basin reached 56.80%, which was the main influence factor, followed by climatic factors (41.56% for precipitation and 1.64% for evapotranspiration); (2) dam construction has generally resulted in an increase in seasonal ES and a decrease in seasonal ED; (3) the combination of the ecological flow indexes with the ecologically relevant hydrological indicators not only reduces the redundancy between the parameters, but also reflects the essential hydrological information and ecological connotations, and it is an effective method for evaluating ecohydrological mechanisms.

Developing practical models for predicting chlorophyll levels in the Andong Reservoir using empirical and machine learning approaches based on integrated analysis of physical, chemical, and hydrological indicators

Managing excessive phytoplankton biomass is a pressing issue worldwide and requires precise predictions and efficient water quality control. In this study, we employed the random forest approach to build a practical predictive model for phytoplankton biomass as determined by chlorophyll (CHL-a) levels. Using an integrative 15-year dataset, we obtained insights into CHL-a dynamics and identified important factors influencing it. Seasonal dynamics were crucial for shaping water quality, with meteorological and hydrological fluctuations playing pivotal roles. Elevated suspended solids and phosphorus levels during the summer monsoon indicated increased runoff and nutrient loading, contributing to fluctuations in nutrient ratios. CHL-a was also responsive to seasonal variations in nutrient availability, particularly in phosphorus and ammonium-nitrogen (NH4-N). These results suggest the importance of nutrient management strategies for controlling and mitigating eutrophication risk. The random forest model had practical accuracy (R2 = 0.66, RMSE = 1.85) for predicting long-term CHL-a variation and identified phosphate-phosphorus, water temperature, and NH4-N as the most important predictors. However, our findings emphasize the importance of comprehensive analyses to identify the factors driving CHL-a variation. Combining the strengths of machine learning with multifaceted insights would enhance prediction accuracy and efficiency, ultimately facilitating informed decision-making for reservoir management and environmental conservation efforts.

Analysis of intense hydrological periods based on observed and estimated flow series at a reference station on the Paraná River, Argentina

The hydrological variability and especially extreme phenomena such as droughts and floods affect natural and human systems worldwide. The Paraná River sub-basin, belonging to the La Plata basin, is of great regional importance, and in recent years extreme events have been observed that have impacted socio-economic aspects of the community. This study compares the series of a relevant hydrological index, calculated from observed flows and unregulated contributions within Argentine territory, at the same reference station. Intense hydrological periods are analyzed in both cases, for droughts and excess water events, for subsequent comparison.

Analysis of flow regime classification in the Omo-Gibe River Basin: insights into fluid dynamics in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The study investigates flow regime in the Omo-Gibe River Basin to address hydrological complexity caused by precipitation and catchment features. Despite employing various methodologies, daily flow data highlight the need for a more comprehensive understanding of flow variability. The study aims to scrutinize flow regime classification, emphasizing the challenges posed by the basin's unique hydrological dynamics, with the ultimate goal of improving water management practices in the region. Using XLSTAT (Excel statistics software), the average base flow index (60.66%), zero flow index (0.25%), coefficient of variation (1.56%), and flashiness index (0.276%) were determined to be the primary hydrological indices that contributed to streamflow characterization. Finally, flow regime classification was described as non-perennial (13%) or perennial (87%) using the shape of the flow duration curve and this hydrological index. However, the magnitude of extreme flow events was judged depending on flow duration curve and calibrated by the flashiness index computed in the study. The study's findings serve as an input for streamflow regionalization and the foundation for future research on the ecology and hydrology of Ethiopia's river basins as well as the management of the water resources throughout the Omo-Gibe River Basin.

Characterization of Water Bodies through Hydro-Physical Indices and Anthropogenic Effects in the Eastern Northeast of Brazil

Brazil, despite possessing the largest renewable freshwater reserves in the world (8.65 trillion m3 annually), faces growing challenges in water management due to increasing demand. Agriculture, responsible for 68.4% of water consumption, is one of the main drivers of this demand, especially in the São Francisco River Basin, where irrigation accounts for 81% of total water withdrawals. Water bodies play a crucial role in sustaining ecosystems and supporting life, particularly along the East-West axis of Alagoas, a water-rich region in the ENEB. This study aimed to map and quantify the spatiotemporal variations of water bodies in the ENEB region and assess the impacts of human activities using MODIS satellite data, applying hydrological indices such as NDWI, MNDWI, and AWEI. Between 2003 and 2022, significant variations in the extent of water bodies were observed, with reductions of up to 100 km2 during dry periods and expansions of up to 300 km2 during wet seasons compared to dry periods. AWEI and MNDWI proved to be the most effective indices for detecting water bodies with MODIS data, providing accurate insights into water dynamics. Additionally, the MapBiomas Rios dataset, despite being resampled from a 30 m to a 500 m resolution, offered the most accurate representation of water bodies due to its methodology for data acquisition. Changes in albedo and surface temperature were also detected, highlighting the influence of climate change on the region’s water resources. These findings are crucial for guiding the sustainable management of water resources, not only in Alagoas but also in other regions of Brazil and similar semi-arid areas around the world. The study demonstrates the hydrological variability in the state of Alagoas, indicating the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic pressures, supporting the need for informed decision-making in water resource management at both local and national levels.

The Impact of Urbanization on Surface Runoff and Flood Prevention Strategies: A Case Study of a Traditional Village

Increasingly severe flooding disasters have caused heavy casualties and property losses worldwide. Traditional Chinese villages that rarely experienced flooding disasters in the past have begun to frequently suffer from floods due to unreasonable reconstruction activities such as ground hardening and pond filling caused by urbanization. However, previous studies on hydrological changes and flood disasters caused by reconstruction activities in rural areas are scarce, especially lacking in quantitative analysis and research. In this study, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to construct two hydrological models before and after the reconstruction of Hezhai Village, a traditional Chinese village. By simulating and comparing the changes in hydrological indicators of the two models, this study quantitatively analyzes how reconstruction activities caused changes in surface runoff and flooding disasters in Hezhai Village. The results show that the increase in the impervious ratio in the village has obvious effects on the total runoff, peak runoff, and runoff coefficient. And the reconstruction of ponds and canals has a notable impact on flooding. This study further delves into the logic of flooding at ponds and ordinary nodes and analyzes the specific reasons for flooding in Hezhai Village. Based on this, the paper provides recommendations for the optimization of the reconstruction of Hezhai Village.

Index-Based Alteration of Long-Term River Flow Regimes Influenced by Land Use Change and Dam Regulation

The growing population and expansion of rural activities, along with changing climatic patterns and the need for water during drought periods, have led to a rise in the water demand worldwide. As a result, the construction of water storage structures such as dams has increased in recent years to meet the water needs. However, dam construction can bring significant alterations to the natural flow regime of rivers, and it is therefore essential to understand the potential effects of human structures on the hydrological regime of rivers to reduce their destructive impacts. This study analyzes the hydrological changes in the Shahrchai River in response to the Shahrchai Dam construction in Urmia, Iran. The study period was from 1950 to 2017 at the Urmia Band station. The Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) were used to analyze the hydrological changes before and after regulating, accounting for land use changes and climatic factors. The results revealed the adverse effects of the Shahrchai Dam on the hydrological indices. The analysis showed an increase in the average flow rate during the summer season and a decrease in other seasons. However, the combined effects of water transferring for drinking purposes, a decrease in permanent snow cover upstream of the dam, and an increase in water use for irrigation and agricultural purposes resulted in a decrease in the released river flow. Furthermore, the minimum and maximum daily flow rates decreased by approximately 85% and 65%, respectively, after the construction of the Shahrchai Dam. Additionally, the number of days with maximum flow rates increased from 117 days in the pre-dam period to 181 days in the post-dam period. As a concluding remark, the construction of the Shahrchai Dam, land use/cover changes, and a decrease in permanent snow cover had unfavorable effects on the hydrological regime of the river. Therefore, the hydrological indicators should be adjusted to an acceptable level compared to the natural state to preserve the river ecosystem. The findings of this study are expected to guide water resource managers in regulating the sustainable flow regime of permanent rivers.

Evaluating machine learning models in predicting GRI drought indicators (case study: Ajabshir area)

Examining the condition of groundwater resources and the impact of droughts is valuable for effective water resources management. Today, machine learning (ML) models are recognized as one of the useful tools in time series predictions. In this study, the groundwater condition of one of the most important aquifers in northwest Iran was investigated using MODFLOW, followed by estimating the groundwater resource index (GRI) utilizing the multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) for a period between 2001 and 2019. Meteorological and hydrological drought indicators along with precipitation and flow rate were used as input variables for prediction. The simulation results revealed a groundwater level decrease since the aquifer withdrawal amount is more than the recharge amount. Besides, results showed that there is a limited interaction between surface water and groundwater resources, mainly caused by the decrease in the river flow and aquifer groundwater level drop. Both ML models performed well in GRI estimation, using groundwater flow, streamflow drought index, standardized precipitation index, and runoff as input variables. The performance of the MARS model with RMSE, MAE, and NSE error evaluation criteria of 0.37, − 0.19, and 0.83, respectively, exerted slightly better results than LSSVR with RMSE, MAE, and NSE of 0.48, − 0.06, and 0.80, respectively. The findings reveal the appropriate performance of both models in forecasting drought indicators, highlighting the necessity of using ML models in hydrology and drought prediction problems.

Sequential Changes in Coastal Plain Rivers Influenced by Rising Sea-Level

Coastal backwater effects on low-gradient coastal plain rivers extend well upstream of the head of the estuary and propagate upstream as sea-level rises. Hydrological, geomorphological, and ecological indicators can serve as sentinels of the upriver encroachment. Analyzing the along-river spatial distribution of these indicators as a space-for-time substitution allows the prediction of sequential changes. Interpretation of results from 20 rivers in Virginia and the Carolinas shows that backwater effects at the leading edge result in higher river stages, increasing floodplain inundation, and raising water tables. Lower slopes and flow velocities reduce sediment transport, reducing river sediment input and floodplain deposition. This inhibits natural levee development, reducing bank heights. These factors combine to increase the frequency and duration of inundation, resulting in semi-permanently flooded wetlands. Anaerobic conditions limit organic decomposition, and ponding allows transported and suspended organic matter to settle, leading to organic muck and peat floodplain soils. This accumulation, coupled with general valley-filling, buries alluvial terrace remnants. Finally, vegetation changes driven by salinity increases occur, resulting in swamp conversions to brackish marsh. Backwater encroachment is strongly controlled by channel bed slope, with relatively steeper channels experiencing slower rates of tidal extension. With accelerating sea-level rise (SLR), the lowest-sloping channels could experience encroachment rates of >1 km yr−1. Hydrological changes associated with SLR are most rapid at the leading, upriver end—averaging 71 km upstream of the head of the estuary in the study rivers at present—and at the lowermost, downstream end of the fluvial-estuarine transition zone.

Understanding the variability of large-scale statistical downscaling methods under different climate regimes

Large-scale downscaling plays an important role in assessing global impacts on hydrological sphere due to climate changes. In such downscaling efforts, it is essential to consider the various climate regimes. Although previous studies have indirectly suggested that the accuracy of downscaling might differ among climate regimes, research that systematically understands or quantifies the variability of this accuracy remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by systematically quantifying the performance of five different large-scale downscaling methods across various climate regimes in the context of downscaling hydroclimatic indicators. Our findings indicate that large-scale downscaling yields the highest accuracy on average when applied to temperature, precipitation, and runoff in tropical, arid, and temperate climate regimes, respectively, while showing poor accuracy in polar regimes for all variables. The maximum difference of normalized root mean squared errors for hydroclimate indicators is 69 % across climate zones, and the spatial distribution of downscaling accuracy aligns with spatial distribution of climate zones. The variation of downscaling accuracy is particularly significant in temperature, precipitation, and seasonal runoff indicators. Furthermore, linkages between accuracy of climate and hydrological indicators differ by climate zones. The underlying reasons for the different accuracy of downscaling are spatially different accuracy of global climate models (GCMs) and interaction of downscaling structure and climate regimes. This study articulated the source of spatially different accuracy/uncertainties for large-scale downscaling that have never been addressed before. The findings of this study provide valuable support in selecting appropriate downscaling methods, ultimately enhancing the spatial reliability and accuracy of large-scale downscaling methods.

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Water Resources in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Causes and Vegetation Response

Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs) are situated in regions prone to significant water deficits. This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the dynamics and spatial patterns of vegetation and water bodies through the analysis of physical–hydrological indices for a remnant of FTSD between 2013 and 2021. Basal area, biomass, and tree number were monitored in 80 permanent plots located in two areas of an SDTF remnant with different usage histories. To assess vegetation and water resource conditions, geospatial parameters NDVI, NDWIveg, NDWI, and MNDWI were estimated for the period from 2013 to 2021. The observed patterns were evaluated by simple linear regression, principal component analysis (PCA), and principal component regression (PCR). Area 2 presented higher values of basal area, biomass, and number of trees. In area 1, there was an annual increase in basal area and biomass, even during drought years. The NDVI and NDWIveg indicated the vulnerability of vegetation to the effects of droughts, with higher values recorded in 2020. NDWI and MNDWI detected the water availability pattern in the study area. Physical–hydrological indices in the dynamics of tree vegetation in dry forests are influenced by various factors, including disturbances, soil characteristics, and precipitation patterns. However, their predictive capacity for basal area, biomass, and tree number is limited, highlighting the importance of future research incorporating seasonal variability and specific local conditions into their analyses.

Study on the Driving Mechanism of Ecohydrological Regime in the Wandering Section of the Lower Yellow River

Climate change and human activities exert significant impacts on runoff generation and convergence mechanisms. Understanding the evolution mechanisms and driving forces of runoff is crucial for the sustainable development of water resources. This study is based on the runoff data of the Huayuankou (HYK), Jiahetan (JHT), and Gaocun (GC) stations in the lower reaches of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2019. The objectives are to identify and quantify the hydrological pattern and its driving mechanism of the three stations by the Mann–Kendall test, cumulative deviation method, wavelet analysis, the IHA-RVA method, SCRCO method, and the Budyko method. Our study revealed that the runoff disturbance points at all three stations occurred in 1985. During the two periods before and after the disturbance, the trends and periodicities within the year exhibited high consistency, showing an overall downward trend, with runoff increasing in October and decreasing in June and the primary cycles being 5 and 7 years. All three stations experienced high-degree changes in their hydrological situations, with the high-degree change occupying the largest proportion. At the HYK, JHT, and GC stations, human activities accounted for 66.05%, 71.94%, and 74.38% of runoff changes, respectively. Furthermore, we verified the attribution conclusion of runoff at HYK using the Budyko model, confirming that human activities are the primary factor influencing runoff. Finally, we explored the interactive relationships along the spatial trajectory of runoff at the three stations, analyzed 32 hydrological indicators, and detailed the land use changes in the Yellow River Basin. Our research findings complement the understanding of hydrological change mechanisms in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and provide a scientific basis for future water resource management and flood prevention measures.