Indian Exports Research Articles

Export Potential of Climate Smart Goods in India: Evidence from the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator

ABSTRACT This article highlights the per capita GDP of the exporter country and GDP of the importer country as major positive determinants of CSGs exports in India using the gravity model of trade. Besides, it is found that India has export potential in CSGs with Russia, Switzerland, Israel, Egypt, China, Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, France, Japan, Oman, Belgium, and Malaysia. The findings suggest that India can take advantage of climate variability by exporting CSGs to the world which will contribute to its economic growth and strengthen its adaptability potential to deal with the increasingly adverse effects of climate change.

Conjugation of border and domestic carbon adjustment and implications under production and consumption-based accounting of India's National Emission Inventory: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis

India initiated prudent measures voluntarily in the last two decades to combat against excessive carbon emissions. Acknowledging these initiatives, the study conjoins the policy of ‘border carbon adjustment (BCA)’ by the developed countries on Indian export with the ‘domestic carbon adjustment (DCA)’ by India to evaluate its impact on emission reduction and the macroeconomy. The study also raises an inconsistency in this dual carbon adjustment under the production-based accounting (PBA) of the ‘national emission inventory (NEI)’ and conducts simulation experiments under the PBA and alternatively proposed consumption-based accounting (CBA) framework. The results reveal that the closer the rates of BCA and DCA the more effective the carbon adjustment schemes are. The dual carbon adjustment also found giving better outcome under the CBA than PBA. The result of carbon-revenue recycling schemes suggest direct compensation to the enterprises for making the economy recover from the carbon tax-distortions in the most effective way.

Exchange rate and its impact on India's trade with its major trading partners: a pooled mean group approach

The study examines short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate on India's export and import with its select trading partners for a period from 1993Q1 to 2019Q3. The study employs panel cointegration and pooled mean group (PMG) estimation method. The results establish the presence of long-run relationship among exports, imports, exchange rate, GDP of India and its trading partners. Further, in the long-run and short run, the exchange rate has impact on exports but not on India's imports. The result reveals that there is a significant impact of exchange rate for Indias export to the countries like Belgium, China, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, UAE, USA and UK. However, the exchange rate depreciation has significant effects only on India's imports from China, UAE and USA. Also, the results of Marshal-Lerner condition indicate depreciation of Indian rupee increases India's exports.

An analysis of export of indian agriculture commodities

The present work has attempted to examine the relationship between agricultural export and the effective factors influencing the same relationship in India. The review of literature has provided an overview of growth of agricultural exports across the countries and different methods used to calculate the export supply function of agricultural products. This study is based on the neoclassical trade theory which is evaluated in a neoclassical production function framework, incorporating an additional factor of production (exports) into the production function. The study has attempted to analyze the long run and the short run relationship between agricultural exports as dependent variable and exchange rate, export price index, gross domestic product and domestic production of agricultural product as independent variables based on annual data during 1980- 2010. Also, World Trade Organization as a dummy variable has been taken as a determinant of India's agricultural exports. The autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model are used to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables. Further, paired t-test is used to investigate the impact of WTO on growth of agricultural export in India. Dynamic econometric model is estimated to test for time series properties, unit root test and cointegration (ARDL procedure). The results of cointegration test showed that the variables are cointegrated. The results of long-run estimated coefficients of export supply function showed that exchange rate had a statistically significant and negative impact on agricultural export. The long-run coefficient of domestic production of agricultural product and export price index have positive sign and are significant at 5% level respectively. The long-run coefficients of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and WTO as dummy variable had positive and negative sign respectively but are insignificant. In brief, the coefficient of the ECM is very high at (−) 0.54 implying a fairly high speed of adjustment to the long-run disequilibrium after a shock. The Coefficient of the ECM term suggested that adjustment process was fast and 54% of the previous year's disequilibrium in equity prices from its equilibrium path will be corrected in the current year. It is also observed that dummy variable is not significant in long run but it is statistically significant in short term.

Зона свободной торговли ЕАЭС–Индия: параметры и потенциал

In 2017, negotiations on the free trade area between India and the EAEU countries entered an active phase. The directions of the negotiation process cover the issues of import tariff liberalization, and the elimination of non-tariff restrictions. The study aims at quantifying the potential impact of mutual tariff liberalization on the dynamics of bilateral trade between Russia and India, in order to develop key principles for Russia's negotiating position (as part of the EAEU), taking into account its strategic priorities. The research methodology bases on the SMART partial equilibrium model and a qualitative analysis of contemporary trends in import demand and the degree of India’s trade protectionism towards imports from the EAEU countries. The study found that the symmetric bilateral tariff liberalization may result in the higher potential increase in Russian exports to India than in the corresponding effects on imports, which will increase the bilateral trade surplus. This is in the interests of Russia, but it hardly meets the strategic interests of India due to its chronic trade deficit. The free trade area may lead to the diversification of the commodity component of Russian exports due to the growing export supplies of Russian coal, to a lesser extent – of metals (aluminum, copper and articles thereof). However, the opportunities to increase the share of high-tech products in the structure of Russian exports remain limited. The free trade area can become an important tool for strengthening Russian exporters of fertilizers, as well as certain categories of agricultural products. In turn, Indian exporters can strengthen their positions on the Russian market of medicines, as well as increase the share of textile products, jewelry and certain categories of agricultural products. The results can serve for developing the position of Russia (as a EAEU member) in multilateral negotiations.

Indian Exports in Textile and Apparel: An Analysis for the Period 2005-2020

Indian Exports in Textile and Apparel: An Analysis for the Period 2005-2020

Impact of e-commerce on India's exports and investment

E-commerce has become an important mode of trade, both domestically and internationally. E-commerce provides a platform for exchange of goods and services and thus directly alters the cost of trade and profits of firms, while simultaneously, generates a demand for a different set of skilled managers and creates opportunities for increasing investment and thereby affects the volume of domestic and international trade and in-turn affects the overall level of output and employment in an economy. There are empirical evidences on how certain developed countries like UK, USA, earlier, and lately developing countries like China, have leveraged e-commerce to enhance international trade. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature by studying the impact of e-commerce on India's international trade, especially exports, and investment which in-turn impact the level of output/gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the country.

Forecasting of Indian agricultural export using ARIMA model

Forecasting of Indian agricultural export using ARIMA model

US-China trade war: Impact on chemical exporting firms from India to US

With the onset of the US-China trade war in July 2018, the trade patterns between China, the US, and India have undergone a tremendous change. The number of products in which China had a competitive advantage in terms of exports to the US has declined in the last 9 months. A number of developing countries may be benefitted from the ongoing tariff war between the US and China, like Vietnam, Brazil, India, and Korea. In the present study, an attempt has been made to analyse the impact of the US-China trade war on exports of India to the US. The sector which has been selected is the chemical sector comprising of organic and inorganic chemicals as chemicals are one of the top-exported products from India to the US. To analyse the impact, the difference-in-differences technique of regression has been applied. The results indicate that after July 2018, i.e., the commencement of the US-China trade war, the impact on firms exporting chemicals from India to the US has been significant and firms in India may be a potential source for chemicals for the US provided the right policy measures are exercised in India. The results indicate that the trade war between the US and China has had a positive impact on the chemical exports from India to the US. The chemical exports from India to the US have increased post-July 2018, though not at a steep rate. This indicates that India has the potential to export chemicals to the US

Indian Tea: Robust Growth Amid Rising Challenges

Tea [ Camellia sinensis  (L.) O. Kuntze is most consumed drink in the world makes a vital contribution to the economy of the producing countries. India is the second largest tea producer and one of the world’s largest consumers of tea. The consumption rate in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.95%. Indian production has increased at a CAGR of 4.17% between 2010 to 2018 but slight falling trend in production have been noticed in 2018 and 2019. Black tea occupied major share and now-a-days expansion of green, herbal and flavor teas has been seen. A comparative growth of tea export, auction prices, price realization etc. of India and other major producing countries are presented. The COVID-19 pandemic blow comes just at a time when unit prices of Indian tea were on the rise for its better quality, but lockdowns severely affected the Indian auction price till 22nd week of 2020. The average monthly auction prices were gradually increased from INR 188.77/kg in June to INR 260.63 in August and has shown declining trends fetching INR 252.87 in September and INR 206.26/kg in October 2020. The auction prices were 2.5 times more since lockdown, which have impacted the gross margins in the September quarter. The price rise would certainly provide some relief to the Indian tea industry which has been struggled with consistent increasing production costs since 2014. The lockdown effect on production, market and export of Indian tea was comparatively severe than other major tea producing countries. Indian export target of 300 million kilograms (mkg) was set for 2020 but target was fell both in volume and value terms between January and June 2020 and target expected to be lower around 210 mkg. Though gradual increment of revenue has been observed but the year-on-year revenue growth rate of Indian tea industry has reduced significantly. In the present article growth of tea production, consumption, tea market, auction prices, revenue earning and impact of COVID-19 on tea prices from the global perspective are discussed. Since last few years recurring problems with low prices and high labour costs, unusual weather is intensifying in the Indian tea industry are also highlighted.

A Gravity Model Analysis of IFDI - Exports Nexus: A Case Study of Indian Exports

The impact of Inward Foreign Direct Investment’s influence on a country’s exports to the FDI source is a subject matter of significance. This paper applies an augmented gravity model of international trade with Foreign Direct Investment integrated into it to empirically estimate the factors that influence India’s exports to its top ten FDI source countries. The top ten investor countries account for about 87 percent of the total FDI inflows into India and 40 percent of Indian exports in 2018. This paper attempts to examine whether the Inward Foreign Direct Investment flows from these nations influence the exports to these nations from India. To this end, IFDI stocks that the top ten investing countries hold in India and the exchange rate between Indian Rupee and their currencies are embedded into the augmented gravity model for international trade. Findings indicate that IFDI stocks have a highly significant and positive role to play in India’s exports to the ten FDI source countries. Besides, the economic size of the investor nation, geographical distance, and geographical distance are significant determinants of the export volume as expected. However, the limited period of data used in the panel data regression may have affected the results. The findings may change if this element is altered. Further study, with a longer period, should be conducted to test the IFDI - Exports Nexus confirmed in this paper. In general, the government of India should continue improving the investment policies as well as undertake further export-oriented reforms in the economy to push India’s exports.

Trade Dynamics of Basmati and Non-Basmati Rice Exports from India

India is the world's largest producer and leading exporter of basmati rice. India produces about 70 per cent of the total world basmati rice production and the rest is produced by Pakistan. During 2017-18 the country has exported globally about 40.56 Lakh tonnes of Basmati Rice and 86.48 Lakh tonnes for Non-Basmati rice, the worth of 268.70 billion and 229.68 billion respectively. Basmati rice has got good export demand and fetches good export price in international markets due to such uniqueness. The higher price of basmati rice in international market made basmati rice as export competitive product. The present study is to analyze the export performance and its competitiveness of basmati non-basmati rice in India. In this paper rice trade dynamics of changes in terms of value of exports of basmati and non-basmati rice from India to different export markets have been measured by employing the Markov-Chain model. U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are found to be stable destinations for Indian basmati rice exports from Markov-Chain results. Whereas, Benin, Bangladesh and UAE are found to be major destinations for non-basmati rice exports. The most unstable markets among the non-basmati rice importing countries were Cote D Ivoire and Liberia with the zero per cent retention. In order to sustain in the international market, Indian export price needs to be competitive besides improvement in quality and sanitary standards.

An investigation on production and productivity export performance of significant spices in the Country India

Background: To strengthen the economy growth through agriculture, there ought to be increase in production and balance in trade terms of export and import. India competes with the global markets in exporting significant spices and few other horticulture products that ends up in economy growth with the help of an array of governmental initiatives to the farmers. Objectives: To analyze the Growth Rate and Instability in Area, Production and Productivity of significant spices and to examine the export of major spices from India during the period of 10 years from 2010 - 2020. Methods: The data have been analyzed with statistical tools; the study has used Compound Annual Growth Rate Analysis (CAGR) & Instability Rate (IR) for analysis. The secondary data used for this study was taken from the Spice Board of India annual reports for the period of 10 years from 2010-2011 to 2019-2020 for the selected major spices. Findings: The analysis provided compound annual growth rate and instability for the selected spices in India in terms of area, production, productivity and export performance for the period of 10 years from 2010-2011 to 2019-2020 to showcase the Indian export in the global markets and to know the status of spices growth in India compared to the previous years (2001-2010). Recommendation: A major concern for the survival in the export market is to increase the productivity and also maintain the quality of the product. So, the major recommendations to be noted by the Spice Board and Agriculture and spice industry to increase the productivity is, i) cultivating quality and best products, ii) utmost care in consumer and contaminants, iii) knowing the new trends in global market for export, iv) enough storage precautions based on the products v) harvesting properly vi) hygiene both in environment and personal. Also, some of the major schemes can be introduced under agriculture for better cultivation of spices by the farmers and it leads to the highest production and productivity and it also impacts the Indian economy. Keywords: Agriculture Science; spices; production; productivity; export; performance

English

English

Performance and Stability Analysis of Spices and Spice Products Export from India

India exports spices from times ancient and is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of spices in the world. This study is contemplated during the two time periods viz., Pre NHM (1993-94 to 2004-05) and Post NHM (2005-06 to 2017-18). The overall trend in spices export in quantity was found to be lower in the Period I than in Period II and Period III. It implies that a lower growth rate in quantity (4.75%) of spices were being exported during Period-I, which increased in quantity (9.57%) of spices during Period-II. Highly stable market for spices and its products during Period I were oils & oleoresins and curry powder, in Period II chilli (quantity), mint products (quantity), oils & oleoresins (value) and curry powder (quantity and value). No commodity showed low instability during Period III. (1993-94 to 2017-2018).

Liberalization, Import of Capital Goods, and Industrial Exports: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sectors

This article examines the impact of capital goods import on Indian manufacturing exports at the sectoral level. Import of capital goods provides dynamic productivity gains through quality, variety, and cost-efficiency channels that further boost manufacturing exports. Since trade liberalization facilitates this process, we presumed that better access to capital inputs would enhance Indian exports for 15 major manufacturing sectors at the 3-digit level from 1997 to 2016. The panel regression analysis based on fixed effect(s) feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), and ordinary least squares (OLS) indicate that, after controlling for world demand, relative export prices, and in-house research and development (R&D), the capital goods import has a positive and statistically significant impact on the aggregate manufacturing sector. The OLS estimates at the sectoral level further confirm the positive impact across nine major sectors. In general, the engineering sectors such as metals, machinery and transport equipment, and traditional labor-intensive sectors like textiles show positive benefit from these technology imports.

Determinants of Agricultural Exports of India: A Commodity Level Analysis

Determinants of Agricultural Exports of India: A Commodity Level Analysis

The Impact of Current Account Deficit on Economic Growth: An ARDL Approach

In this study, we examine the linkages between External debt, Exchange rate, Current account deficit, and GDP at Factor cost for India over the period of 1975-76 to 2018- 19 using the Unit root test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results of the unit root test reveal that GDP growth rate and External debt are integrated at the level I(0); while the Current Account deficit and Exchange rate are integrated at first order I(1). The results of the ARDL technique reveal that the current account deficit has a positive and significant impact on Real GDP. It clearly reflects the role of imports in accelerating the growth of a developing economy like India. There is also evidence that the external debt has a positive and significant impact on the Current account deficit while the Exchange rate does not have an impact on the Current account deficit. The authors opine that the external debt assists in a gradual reduction in the current account deficit and contributes to economic growth by narrowing down the saving-investment gap. As the demand for Indian exports is inelastic in the global market, the country has not benefitted from the depreciation of its currency. The authors stressed the need for focusing on further diversification of its export markets, creating a conducive environment for attracting longer-term FDIs, liberalization, promoting commercial services exports, and achieving exchange rate stability in the context of the USA-China trade war and stagnation in the world output growth. Huge untapped potential for IT-enabled services should be exploited to promote service trade. The authors point out the current account deficit in the range of 2-3 percent of GDP can be manageable.

Review of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement Using Revealed Comparative Advantage Index

This paper tries to evaluate India’s concerns with AIFTA (Asean India Free Trade Agreement). The main objective of the paper is to study the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index of Indian exports in relation to ASEAN Countries. The RCA index reveals that India has comparative advantage in many product categories but we have not been able to utilize our advantage and in absolute terms is reflected by widening trade deficits with ASEAN nations. So an in depth analysis has been done to analyse India’s trade with ASEAN countries and also through RCA index Industry categories have been identified where India has revealed comparative advantage. Keywords: FTA’s, Trade deficit, Free Trade Agreements, ASEAN, Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) JEL Classification: F31, O34, F1.

Spot exchange rate volatility, uncertain policies and export investment decision of firms: a mean-variance decision approach

This paper studies characteristics of optimal investment decisions of risk-averse firms who engage in exports under two types of risks: endogenous and background risks. While endogenous risk arises from the fluctuations in spot exchange rate and affects directly the profit of an exporting firm, background risk arises from uncertain changes in firm- and industry-specific domestic and foreign policies. We propose a mean-variance decision-theoretic model to trace out impact of perturbations in the distributions of these uncertainties on the optimal investment strategy. A testable empirical model is derived and applied to a panel of 840 exporting Indian manufacturing firms for the period 1995–2015. Our results suggest that Indian manufacturing exporters depict decreasing absolute risk aversion and that firms’ risk preferences are prone to variance vulnerability.