India Trade Research Articles

An Econometric Analysis between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in India

Foreign trade or international trade is one of the key indicators of country’s economic growth. Economic development is considered as one of the major concerns for any developing countries like India. India’s foreign trade plays a pivotal role in ascertaining the performance of GDP growth in a country.The present study examines the relationship between export, import, trade openness and economic growthof India using the secondary sources from 1997-2021collected from World Bank Database.The analysis of the series has been carried out accordingly with the help of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Estimates and Granger Causality Test using EViews-12.

A STUDY ON FEMALE STUDENTS IN MARITIME INSTITUTES OF GUJARAT FOR SEA BASED JOBS

The primary mode of transport in world global trade is through Maritime Sector. 90% of global transport is sea based (UNCTAD, 2021). In India 90% of India's trading by volume and 70% by value is done through maritime transport (Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, 2021). Further Gujarat having longest coastline in India contributes 40 % of trade in country through its maritime sector (Ministry of Shipping, 2021). The sector provides huge opportunity of employment to the seafarers across the world and the demand is always increasing (BIMCO, 2021). Although when it comes to gender parity the sector is highly gender imbalanced. Only 1.28% of females are working as seafarers in the world maritime fleet (BIMCO/ICS, 2021) which is highly dominated by males historically. In India the percentage is even lesser than one although Indians are considered as the preferred employees across world maritime fleet (DG Shipping, 2018). This paper aims to explore the supply side of the human resource that is education institutes from where the students joins as seafarers in the mainstream job. A survey through questionnaire conducted in Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) registered Maritime institutes in Gujarat wherein the female students are studying. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and statistical analysis to understand various mode of entries, awareness, limitations and challenges to female students. The findings from this study will reveal various ground level facts at supply side of maritime sector specific to females in maritime industry and issues leading to high gender imparity in the maritime industry, the finding shall also be helpful to address the problems of less females from Gujarat joining the maritime sector employment

Role of Trade in India's Rising Atmospheric Mercury Emissions.

India is among the largest emitters of atmospheric mercury (Hg) in the world. India's production activities have associated Hg emissions which can be attributed to final demands (e.g., purchases by households, governments, and private investments) of nations driving upstream production from the demand perspective, or primary inputs (e.g., labor and capital supply) of nations enabling downstream production from the supply perspective. This study identifies key nations and sectors that directly and indirectly drove India's Hg emissions from both the demand and supply perspectives during 2004-2014. While domestic final demand was the dominant driver from the demand perspective (driving about 80-85% of the total), USA, China, and UAE are important foreign drivers. Similarly, from the supply perspective, domestic primary inputs were the dominant drivers. However, the share of foreign inputs enabling Hg emissions increased from 16 to 23% during the decade. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Australia, and China are the top foreign supply-side drivers. The Construction sector is an important demand-side driver, whereas fossil fuel sectors are important supply-side drivers. These findings can guide global and national policies for demand- and supply-side management of Hg emissions in India and assist in the successful implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Indian Commodity Market Price Comparative Study of Forecasting Methods - A Case Study on Onion, Potato and Tomato

In this study several characteristics are taken into account so that the crop price forecast is accurate. Forecasting the price of agriculture commodities based on Volume, diesel price helps the agriculturist and also the agriculture mandi’s in India. We look at onion, tomato, and potato trading in India and present the evaluation of a price forecasting model, and anomaly detection and compared differently Supervised, Unsupervised and Forecasting prediction models. We prefer to use wholesale prices, retail prices, arrival volumes of the agricultural commodities and Diesel prices in India. We also provide an in-depth forecasting analysis of the effect on these retail prices. Our results are encouraging and point towards the likelihood of building pricing models for agricultural commodities and to detect anomalies. These data can then be stored and analyzed. The empirical comparison of the chosen methods on the various data showed that some methods are more suitable than others for this type of problem. In this research, we did a comparative study of Auto ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), LSTM, VAR (vector autoregressive model), and Random Forest Regression, XGBoost in their ability to predict Retail prices of potatoes, onions and tomatoes.

Impact of Cultural Determinants on Bilateral Trade of India

Impact of Cultural Determinants on Bilateral Trade of India

Vocational education in tourism at schools and colleges of Himachal Pradesh, India: a qualitative inquiry on challenges encountered by trainers

ABSTRACT The rapid growth of travel trade in India has propelled the demand for well-trained and qualified personnel. To foster the quality skills and knowledge among the potential workforce, the role of teachers/trainers has been indispensable. Therefore, it is essential to properly address the needs of educators. The present study aims to identify and analyze the challenges of vocational (tourism) trainers imparting skill-based training in the schools and colleges of Himachal Pradesh (India). The data collected from 91 vocational trainers of Himachal Pradesh through semi-structured interviews was analyzed qualitatively using content analysis supported by NVivo software. The study resulted into 34 perceived challenges which were grouped under 7 distinct categories: teaching-related challenges, student-related challenges, society-related challenges, challenges at the end of outsourcing companies, challenges at the end of Government, syllabus-related challenges, and school’s location. The findings imply the urgent need to improve the system of vocational education by timely addressing the varied challenges of vocational trainers.

An empirical analysis of foreign trade capital on the nominal exchange rate in India

Abstract: This study is an endeavor to establish the relationship that subsists between trade and exchange rate in India. This study provides an empirical contribution to the subsisting literature which has been studied to date. The variables opted in this study include export, import of goods and accommodations, and exchange rate in India. All components of foreign trade are explanatory variables whereas the nominal exchange rate in India is taken to be the dependent variable. This study is mostly predicated on secondary data which have been sourced from RBI for a period of 30 years i.e. from 1991 to 2020. The nominal exchange rate in India i.e. US dollar to Indian rupee has been taken as the dependent variables. The method of the Multiple Regression model has been employed to examine the degree of relationship among the aforesaid variables. The findings of the study show that export and import paramount variables to expound the exchange rate in India. Export and import are paramount variables to expound the dependent variable. Most of the studies have focussed on ascertaining the impact of exchange rate on foreign trade both in developing as well as emerging economies as has been conspicuous from the review of past literature but this study has highlighted the consequentiality and consequentiality of foreign trade on the nominal exchange rate in India. This study contributes to the subsisting literature that if export increases then the exchange rate appreciates and vice versa. The regime of India should initiate measures to promote export in India which would stabilize the nominal exchange rate in India.

How Should the State Interact Constitutionally with Corporations which have significant power and influence over its population? Lessons from the Impeachment of Warren Hastings, 1788-1795

How to maintain constitutional accountability over large corporations is an increasing theme in contemporary politics. The impeachment trial of Warren Hastings in 1788-1795 addressed this directly with the behaviour of the East India Trading Company. What lessons for today are illustrated by this historical trial?

Building on open economy politics to understand the stalled EU–India trade negotiations

Abstract Global trade governance is increasingly characterized by a growing fragility in multilateral institutions and a preference for bilateral negotiations. The literature on such negotiations focuses primarily on successful agreements. Academic research on unsuccessful or stalled bilateral talks is limited, although better understanding of such outcomes may provide lessons for future negotiations. This article contributes to such understanding by proposing a revised open economy politics (OEP) framework, adapted to ‘second generation’ OEP analysis. Our framework highlights the multidirectional linkages between the trinity of interests, institutions and international interactions within trade negotiations, while adding the role of power and ideas to the analysis. We leverage our revised framework to explore why the European Union–India Free Trade Agreement (EUIFTA) negotiations stalled, thus providing insights as negotiators seek to revive them. Drawing on 45 semi-structured interviews conducted over a seven-year period in the EU and India, we examine what impact these different factors had on the progress of talks. Our results suggest that our revised OEP approach provides a multi-layered and integrated framework which enables us to better understand negotiating outcomes. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the shifting balance between emerging economies and developed economies as a result of the geopolitical (power) shifts and ideational change will affect future trade negotiations.

A Comprehensive Study of Legal Frameworks Shaping Production, Commerce, and Trade in India

This article undertakes a thorough and comprehensive analysis of the intricate legal frameworks that govern the spheres of production, commerce, and trade in India. By delving into historical antecedents, addressing contemporary challenges, illuminating success stories, and envisioning future prospects, this study aspires to offer a nuanced and all-encompassing comprehension of the legal underpinnings that intricately mold and regulate the diverse economic activities within the country. Through this exploration, the article endeavors to not only dissect the evolution of legal structures but also shed light on their contemporary impact, thereby contributing to a more profound understanding of the dynamic interplay between law and the economic landscape in India.

Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) and Their Significance in Agricultural Trade of India and European Union

Aims: The research study aims to study the decadal growth in agricultural trade of top five agricultural commodities between India and the European Union and also the quantification of Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) of select agricultural commodities to give trade policy suggestions to the concerned commodity sectors
 Study Design and Methodology: A decadal growth in top five agricultural commodities were studied for 28 European Union Countries (EU-28) and India using Compounded Annual Growth Rate and NTM of three subsections of WTO were quantified using inventory-based approaches; coverage ratio and frequency index.
 Results and Conclusion: In terms of quantity exported, positive annual growth rate of 0.24, 0.48 and 0.76 per cent in marine products, coffee and castor oil is noticed. A negative growth of 0.67 and 2.6 per cent in spices and tobacco unmanufactured is witnessed during the study period. Export value recorded the positive annual growth rate of 2.96, per cent in marine products and spices and a negative growth of 1.7,0.16 and 2.8 per cent in coffee, castor oil and tobacco unmanufactured respectively. Export value per unit showed annual positive growth of 2.7,2.2 and 0.94 per cent in marine products, coffee and spices and negative growth of 0.91 and 0.22 per cent in castor oil and tobacco unmanufactured respectively. Both Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Measures had a greater impact in the agricultural export form India to EU-28 during 2010-11 to 2019-20.

An Empirical Analysis of Timber Trade in India

Forests are renewable resources that contribute significantly to economic growth. The economic contribution by forest is through the valuable commodities including wood, paper and non-timber forest products. One among this is timber, it has been the primary material for house construction and furnishings of all kinds over the years. Timber plays a vital role in international trade in India. This study was focused on finding growth pattern in export and import of timber using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Over the period of 2005-2019, the production of timber has been increased at the rate of 0.07%. The import performance was dominant over the export due to over requirements of raw materials. Although export showed positive growth rate at 0.15%, import of timber shot up at 4.09% from 2005-2019. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce adequate due diligence system to meet domestic demand of timber production in India.

GONADOSOMATIC INDEX OF NANDUS NANDUS (HAMILTON, 1822)

Ornamental fishes have emerged as a resource with considerable economic potential. The Asian region stands up as the largest importer of tropical ornamental fish trade. In 2007, it exported 56% of the total global share. Singapore exports the largest share occupying 38% followed by Malaysia, Japan and Thailand by 14%, 12% and 8% respectively ( FishStat, 2009). Compared to the Asian scenario India's total share is negligible in the ornamental fish trade. India is endowed with rich resource of ornamental fish species and can become a major contributor to the international market. Northeastern region can also contribute a major share in the trade of India with its diversified water bodies. The major area which needs to be focused is breeding of ornamental fishes. A successful breeding programme can be possible only if the breeding season of the fish is known. In order to complete the task, the present study was undertaken to trace accurately the spawning period of Nandus nandus. This is reported in terms of gonadosomatic index, which express the relative change in gonad weight to the percentage of body weight.

An Assesment of Export Potential of Indian Mentha Oil in International Market

Mentha (Mentha arvensis) is an important crop cultivated in India. Uttar Pradesh is the leading producer state in the country. The present study has been carried out in order to access the export potential of Indian Mentha oil. The export potential and performance of Mentha oil was examined. Apart from this total export, export growth rate and stability or instability of trade for India was also examined. Growth rate analysis and Markov chain analysis were the analytical tools used to assess growth and transition probabilities matrix for the major Mentha oil markets. Data were collected from various published sources from the year 2010-11 to 2019-2020 to calculate the compound growth rate and export potential of Mentha oil. The result of the study revealed that U.S.A. is the most stable importer of Indian Mentha oil because it retain 79 per cent share in last ten years among all the countries. France reported as second most stable importer of India’s Mentha oil had 0.49 transition probability. Japan, Brazil, Netherland, Spain reported zero transition probability, indicating instability in India’s exports to these countries.

FLAGGING DETERMINANTS FOR INDIAN OUTBOUND M&A

Indian enterprises have succeeded in climbing the ladder of outward M&A transactions and out performing everyone's expectations post 1990s. This paper aims to recalibrate the empirical literature of India's outbound M&A by considering the impact of host market size, appreciation in home currency, India's trade openness and liberalization policies. This study attempts to examine the impact of the host market size, home international reserves and trade openness along with home currency appreciation on the volume of the outbound M&A by Indian firms, using augmented autoregressive distributed lag (augmented ARDL) bounds testing approach. Findings reveal that appreciation of Indian rupee and liberal norms towards trade, i.e. import and export both will inevitably benefit or push the Indian firms to acquire foreign firms overseas, in the short term as well as over the long term. This paper makes an effort to identify and describe the significant factors influencing the outbound M&A deals by Indian firms in the recent years, which were previously proved relevant for group of emerging economies at large.Keywords: Outbound M&A; India, OFDI, DeterminantsJEL Classifications: F21, F23, P45, G34DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11715

Current status, challenges and future prospects of vegetable seed system in India: Vegetable seed system in India

Vegetable production in India has increased manifolds due to gradual increase in productivity and area under vegetable cultivation over the years, which maintains its 2nd ranking in global vegetable production after China. This has led to availability of 357 grams/person/day of vegetables in the country. India has first rank in pea (Pisum sativum) and okra (Abelmoscus esculentus) production, while it ranks 2nd in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), cauliflower (Brassica oleracea), potato (Solanum tuberosum), onion (Allium cepa) and brinjal (Solanum melongena) production (Kumar et al, 2017). Vegetables are important constituents of agriculture for attaining food and nutritional security. It also has ability to generate on-farm and off-farm employment. An increase in availability, affordability and consumption of nutrient dense vegetables is one of the ways to prevent malnutrition. India is bestowed with huge diversity of vegetables and is the largest contributors (59.20%) of the total horticultural produce in the country in 2017-18. Area under vegetable cultivation is continuously increasing, mainly due to higher productivity, shorter maturity cycle, high value and greater income leading to improved livelihoods. Production of vegetables is touching new records every year, making it the most favoured agricultural commodity by the farmers. Production during 2017-18 was recorded 184 million tons from 10.3 million hectares, whereas it was less than 20 million tons during independence. This manifold increase needs to be sustained to meet the demand of 1.5 billion people by 2030 (Horticultural Statistics at a Glance, 2018 and https://apeda.gov.in/apedawebsite/six_head_product/FFV.htm). Seed is the first and foremost important commodity for successful vegetable cultivation. Indian vegetable seed industry is growing enormously. Since independence, government policies liberalized and encouraged seed trade in India. Several private seed firms with multinational base are actively involved in vegetable seed production in India. Expanding areas under vegetable cultivation, varied agro-climatic conditions, availability of huge and cheap human resource is creating titanic scope for development of vegetable seed industry in India. Vegetable seed industry has positive influence on Indian economy in terms of income and employment generation and earning foreign exchange in international market. There are few constraints like high cost of seed production, technical problems and stringent laws set break to the vegetable seed industry in India.

Analyzing the Causal Relationship between Trade, FDI and Economic Growth: In the Case of India

This study analyzes the relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in India from 1980 to 2019. India’s economic reform began in the early 1980s, but the full-scale liberalization and privatization process began in July 1980 due to the balance-of-payments crisis and liquidity crisis faced by the economy. India has been a protectionist country for a while, but has gradually changed to a country open to international trade, and as of 2019, trade accounted for 43.3% of the country’s GDP. The main export products are petroleum (14.6%) and diamonds (7.9%) as primary products, and major trading partners are the United Arab Emirates and China. South Korea recently signed a free trade agreement with ASEAN. The results of analyzing the relationship between trade, FDI, and economic growth in India are as follows. The results of the Granger causal relationship showed that there is a one-way causal relationship between GDP and exports, and that GDP affects the significance level of 5% of exports. In the case of India, an increase in imports or FDI has a positive effect on the increase in GDP, but it is not significant. An increase in exports has a rather negative effect on an increase in GDP, and the VECM results show that when exports increase, GDP decreases by 9% at a level of 10% significance.

Stock Market Integration and Trade: A Study on India and its Major Trading Partners

Indian stock market is increasingly integrated with other markets of the world after economic liberalization. This linkage of Indian stock market reduces the scope of risk minimization of portfolio by diversifying between stock markets of India and its integrated partners. Researchers indicate that economic variables influence the integration of stock markets. Trade is one of the major parameters. In this study effort has been made to find how Indian stock market integration varies with amount of trade with its trading partners. Hence 21 years’ weekly data from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2019 have been collected for 15 countries, which belong to the list of top 25 trading partners of India since 1999. Total sample of 15 countries have been divided into two groups—Asia Pacific and European group along with United States, to check whether integration increase with trade. Johansen Cointegration test has been used between stock markets of India and two groups of countries. To confirm the result of Johansen cointegration test, the same test was ran on joint index for each group and Sensex of India. It also helped to check the effect of geographical proximity on this integration. Conditional correlation was found using asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation (AGDCC) GARCH model, between Sensex and each of the 15 countries, to observe the time varying nature of correlation. Twenty one year’s data has helped to find the impact of global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 on these interlinkages. Lending rate differential and inflation rate differential can cover many economic parameters, hence used as control variable. Time series regression has been used to find the impact of trade, interest rate and inflation differential on correlation between Indian stock market index and index of any other countries. Pooled panel regression has been used to check the same relationship on all countries in every group. Nine Asian countries together contribute higher amount of trade with India since 2004 than jointly five European countries and the United States. Trade difference is very low, hence this study analysed both the groups. Asia Pacific group of countries is more integrated with India than European group and the United States. None of the joint index is integrated with Indian stock market index. Conditional correlation between Indian index and each of the country has changed over time. Time series regression implies that except very few cases, trade and other economic factors cannot influence the integration. As expected, the interest rate differential and inflation differential have negative and positive impacts on the correlation respectively but these impacts are not significant in many cases. Pooled panel regression shows that trade and GFC have positive and significant impact on correlation between India and Asia Pacific countries but not with the same between India and European countries and United States. International investors will not be able to reduce their portfolio risk by diversifying between India and any other of the 15 countries in the sample because all of them are integrated with Indian stock market. Trade of India with Asian countries has increased in recent years and integration has also increased. Although time series and pooled panel regression do not prove it’s significant impact on conditional correlation between India and the sampled countries. But trade between two countries definitely bear a role in integration.

Rajeev Pundir

Put not your trust in money, but put your money in trust.”A capital market can provide huge impetus to the development of any economy .so, it can be said that the growth and sustainability of capital markets plays an important role towards the development of the economy. It is being observed that huge fluctuations are happening in Indian capital market in recent past, but with the help of proper mechanism, which is being observed in India and after examining various risk factors involved in capital markets, we attempt to say that the growth which has been observed in Indian capital market in recent past is a realty, but not a myth. Right from the independence, thanks to steps initiated by the Indian government especially after the post liberalization era. A huge growth has been observed in the aspects of quality and quantity. Huge increase has been observed in the volumes of trade. We know that capital markets play a vital role in Indian economy, the growth of capital markets will be helpful in raising the per-capita income of the individuals, decrease the levels of un-employment, and thus reducing the number of people who lies below the poverty line. With the increasing awareness in the people they start investing in capital markets with long-term orientations, which would provide capital inflows to the sectors requiring financial assistance.“Hedge risk; make the derivatives market your investment option”Derivative is finally engineered instruments which derive its value from price of a specific asset. Value of Equity Derivatives is derived from share price of any company or share index. In India trading of two types of derivatives are permitted – Futures and Options. Derivatives trading desks face a growing number of challenges – more sophisticated derivative instruments, fiercer competition, and stricter risk reporting and compliance requirements. It is now common to trade options with multi-asset-class underlying instruments quoted in different currencies, such as an option offering the best return between a Brazilian bond and a U.S. stock index. Investor uses the derivatives as an edged sword. Derivatives instruments are like a mother’s womb that cares of her baby (Investor) from volatility in the market. In nutshell this study is an effort to analyze the trading mechanism which has been followed by the investors in current scenario.

An Analysis of Determinant Factors in Agricultural Trade between India and ASEAN

Considering the significance of trade relation between India and ASEAN, the present study was conducted to analyze the determinants of India-ASEAN trade in agricultural products. This study incorporated HS 2-digit codes from 01 to 24 chapters, which constituted 85 percent of the total chapter falling under agricultural products. To perceive the significance of ASEAN as a major trading partner, shares of India's trade with ASEAN relative to the world was computed via trade intensity approach. Furthermore, the gravity model was employed to witness the determinants of agriculture trade between the two trading partners. The study found that the GDP of ASEAN and India, the common border between the two trading blocs, was positive and significant. The variable distance and landlocked was observed to be negative and significant, which confirmed that trade would decrease if distance increases and if the country was landlocked, respectively. Interestingly, variables like FTA, GDP of India, common language, and common colony showed no significant effect on the bilateral trade.