Security Index Research Articles

Trade potential in the agricultural cooperation between Russia and ASEAN countries in conditions of world economic system fragmentation

In the article the level of food security of the ASEAN countries and Russia was determined using the Global Food Security Index, on the basis of which an analysis was made of the demand for each of the economies of the Association and the possibilities of trade cooperation with Russia in certain categories of agro-industrial products. Additionally, the article shows the key trading partners of the ASEAN countries in both export and import of agricultural products, and also identifies the position of the Russian economy among the category of so-called “other trading partners”. Based on statistical data, taking into account the current volumes of trade potential of the Russian economy, three categories of ASEAN countries were identified, for each of which a categorical analysis of the demand for agricultural products was carried out and the potential for interaction with Russia was identified.

Analysis of Sustainable Food Sector Development in the Sumatra Island

The research aims to analyze the development of food security through indicators of the sustainable food sector on the island of Sumatra in 2018-2022. Food sector indicators include the number of poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per capita, insufficient food consumption, and food insecurity. Food security indicators use the food security index. The research method is quantitative through secondary data collection with panel data analysis from cross section results of 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra and time series data for 2018-2022. The approach used, namely CEM,FEM, REM. The research findings show that the food inflation variable has a positive and significant effect on the food security index, the poor population variable, rice consumption per capita, insufficient food consumption has a positive and insignificant effect on the food security index. Population with food insecurity has a negative and insignificant effect on the food security index.

Современные проблемы обеспечения продовольственной безопасности

The article examines the problems of food security and the sequence of their identification, by reviewing the main indicators of food security, analyzing some of them, forecasting for the period 2023-2025. Such an indicator as the consumer price index for basic food products, and also suggests ways to solve the problems of food supply. During the implementation of theoretical studies, the assumption was confirmed that the main solution to the problem of food security for the country's population is to stimulate the agro-industrial sector to increase production volumes with the active use of import substitution.

Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.

Construction of a Farm-Level Food Security Index: Case Study of Turkish Dairy Farms

Construction of a Farm-Level Food Security Index: Case Study of Turkish Dairy Farms

Monitoring the Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet within Countries: Building Systems in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Viet Nam

BackgroundGovernments around the world collect food price data on a frequent basis, often monthly, for the purpose of monitoring inflation. These routine economic data can be used with a nutrition-sensitive lens for understanding economic access to a healthy diet. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has adopted the cost and affordability of a healthy diet (CoAHD) for annual tracking alongside other food security indicators. This indicator is relevant in many countries for informed decision-making and accountability toward Food Systems Summit pathways. National governments may wish to include this indicator in their own monitoring systems, using existing subnational price and income data. ObjectivesWe describe emerging systems in several countries for monitoring CoAHD and analytical tools that facilitate the calculation of CoAHD. We discuss reasons why the indicator may differ when calculated using subnational data compared with the global monitoring system and how to interpret differences. MethodsBetween June 2016 and February 2024, 19 workshops were held in 7 countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Viet Nam), where stakeholder discussions covered sources of food price data, institutions involved, policy uses, and direct training in calculation of CoAHD. Food price data collected by national organizations were used to calculate CoAHD in partnership with government agencies. ResultsCalculating CoAHD using subnational data uses the same methods across settings, but the mechanisms for monitoring and dissemination are different in each country, illustrating heterogeneity in how the metric can most effectively be incorporated within existing structures. Results from national and global monitoring systems have expected differences based on data sources, healthy diet standards, and affordability standards. ConclusionsCoAHD can be calculated with existing data and resources, facilitated by new software tools and user tutorials. In the future, it can be further streamlined, leveraging technical assistance from global institutions and aligning national and global monitoring systems.

Association of food insecurity with MASLD prevalence and liver-related mortality

BackgroundThe burden of MASLD is growing across the globe. This study explores association of food insecurity with MASLD prevalence and liver-related mortality (LRM) across the globe. MethodsThe study combines United Nations’ country-level food security data with the MASLD data from Global Burden of Disease-2021. Mixed-effects linear regression (MELR) models, accounting for country-level random effects, were used to assess associations of food security indicators with MASLD prevalence and LRM. The analyses were performed according to each country’s Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI) status. ResultsIn 2021, the median prevalence and LRM of MASLD across 204 countries was 21.77% (14.14%-48.18%) and 2.92 per 100,000 (0.42-10.79) with the highest MASLD prevalence located in North Africa & Middle East (41.70%) and the lowest prevalence in high-income countries (17.31%). After adjustments for age, gender and SDI, higher MASLD prevalence was associated with increasing rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D) and low physical activity (p<0.001). When analyses were performed based on SDI status, divergent patterns of MASLD prevalence were observed. In high SDI countries (socioeconomically more developed), MASLD prevalence was significantly higher in those in the top tertile of food insecurity as compared to the bottom tertile (mean, 26.73% vs. 18.87%, p=0.0001). In contrast, in low SDI countries (socioeconomically less developed), the opposite was true (19.45% vs. 24.96%, p=0.0008). MASLD-LRM was associated with older age, obesity, and metabolic risks (p<0.001). ConclusionsAnd Relevance: MASLD prevalence and LRM exhibit significant geographical variability across the globe which can be influenced by clinic-demographic, and food insecurity. Targeted public health strategies which considers socio-economic realities of each region are essential for mitigating the global burden of MASLD.

Synergistic evaluation of energy security and environmental sustainability in BRICS geo-political entities: An integrated index framework

Research background: The increasing demand for energy, driven by economic growth and population expansion, is a critical driver of societal progress. However, the predominant reliance on fossil fuels to meet this demand presents significant challenges, particularly in the rapidly developing BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). These countries are faced with a complex interplay of energy security and environmental sustainability issues, stemming from their substantial fossil fuel reserves and the associated environmental consequences. The challenges manifest as inequalities in access to clean energy, environmental degradation, and heightened vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Addressing these multifaceted issues requires a comprehensive approach. Metrics-based strategies, which employ aggregated indices derived from a diverse set of energy and environmental indicators, have the potential to provide valuable insights into these complexities. However, the development of a universally applicable energy sustainability index is complicated by the heterogeneity of metrics, disparities between countries, and methodological challenges, emphasizing the need for an innovative and holistic analytical framework. Purpose of the article: This study aims to develop a tailored Energy Security and Environmental Sustainability Index for BRICS economies to evaluate the robustness of their energy systems and the viability of their ecological practices. The index serves as an instrument to assess the progress of these nations in the Energy and Environment domain and identify areas that require targeted interventions and improvements. Methods: The construction of the composite ESESI involves the selection of relevant parameters and the application of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework in conjunction with the Weighted Product Method (WPM). To ensure objectivity in the determination of optimal and least favorable weights for each indicator, the study employs the Multiplicative Data Envelopment Analysis (MDEA) model. Findings &amp; value added: The ESESI analysis reveals disparities in the progress made by BRICS nations in enhancing energy security, promoting renewable energy deployment, and mitigating environmental impacts. While some countries demonstrate substantial advancements, others face challenges in improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions. The study underscores the necessity for tailored policies and targeted infrastructural enhancements that align with the unique challenges and strengths of each nation. Harnessing the abundant renewable energy potential through advanced energy trade mechanisms and fostering cross-border investments are identified as crucial strategies for ensuring environmental sustainability and long-term energy in the BRICS region. The ESESI provides a valuable tool for policymakers and researchers to evaluate the progress of BRICS nations in achieving sustainable energy goals and to inform evidence-based decision-making processes. By offering a comprehensive and scientifically rigorous assessment framework, this study contributes to the ongoing discourse on sustainable energy transitions and environmental stewardship in the context of rapidly developing economies.

Nuclear and Radiological Material Smuggling in the Indian Ocean: Implications for India’s Coastal Security

Incidents of nuclear and radiological smuggling in the Indian Ocean are a matter of concern. Attempts to smuggle nuclear material within India have also been reported as recently as 2021. Indian security agencies previously have also seized natural uranium in coastal states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra and Bengal indicating how vulnerable the Indian coast is to radiological and nuclear smuggling. The Nuclear Security Index has also consistently ranked India below China and Pakistan despite their poor record on nuclear non-proliferation. These facts highlight concerns regarding the possible misuse of nuclear and radiological material by criminal and terrorist networks. Since India is targeted by terrorist groups and lies in the vicinity of countries and routes that see frequent nuclear and radiological trafficking, there are inevitable implications for the Indian coastal security system. This article identifies and analyses these security implications and argues for a beefing up of India’s coastal security.

A quality managerial approach on the relationship between the digital development level and the cyber security index

The main goal for the realization of this study was to verify the level of relations between digitalization and cyber security. The path followed for the realization of this study was the creation of the idea for the study and the relationship between the issues that were considered, the search for the most appropriate and freshest literature, the collection of data for this study, the raising of hypotheses, the processing of data and performing the regression analysis, extracting the results, verifying the main hypothesis, and from them reaching the relevant conclusions and recommendations. The main recommendation of this study is that investment in digitalization also affects investments in cyber security and both together help the development of countries and their integration between each other and beyond, while the relations between digitalization, cyber security and quality management are embodied at ISO standards, especially at ISO 38500, and ISO 27000 family of standards.

Factors Affecting the Resilience Index Food in Papua Province and West Papua Province Using a Spatial Model Approach

The Food Security Index is a measure of indicators to produce a composite value that reflects the status of food security in a region. Food security plays an important role in sustainable development, including food availability, environmental preservation and economic balance, as well as being the basis for economic growth, preventing poverty and inequality. In Indonesia, with an estimated population growth of 430 million people in 2050, the challenge of meeting food needs is increasing. Indonesia's commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) includes efforts to end hunger and promote sustainable agriculture. This research aims to apply spatial regression analysis to the Provinces of Papua and West Papua to determine the best model and significant factors that influence the Food Security Index in the region in order to identify the challenges faced by the region in calculating the food availability of its people as well as assist in developing efforts to overcome them. Five predictor variables were used with the assumption that they have a significant influence on the Food Security Index. This research examines the spatial regression equation using the SAR, SEM and SARMA regional approaches. The results obtained showed that the selected SEM model with a p-value of 0.0082581 was appropriate for identifying the dependence of spatial effects on Food Security Index in Papua Province and West Papua Province. Life Expectancy at Birth, Prevalence of Stunting Toddlers, Percentage of Poor Population, Open Unemployment Rate, and Average Length of Life are significant factors that influence the Food Security Index in Papua Province and West Papua spatially.

On relations between cyber security index and iso 27001 standard index in western balkan countries

My aim in this article was to illustrate the relationships between the Western Balkan nations’ ISO 27001 index and the cyber security index, given the growing global interest in cyber security. The primary findings of this study were derived from the research methodology, which involved gathering data and information about the degree of cyber security applications in the Western Balkans, as represented by the cyber security index, as well as data about the degree of ISO 27001 standard application in Western Balkan countries, processing data for ISO 27001 certificates, creating an index of ISO 27001 certificates, and managing a regressive analysis on the relationships between the cyber security index and the ISO 27001 certificates index, while examining the path toward EU integration, they are also working to address concerns related to cyber security. This is because gaining a competitive edge in fields like information technology, artificial intelligence, digitalization, e-commerce, and e-government necessitates robust cyber defenses. The primary suggestion is that Western Balkan nations may better respond to cyberattacks and cyberthreats by implementing ISO standards including the ISO 27000 family of standards, particularly ISO 27001.

Wheat food security indicators under improved irrigation conditions in Assiut Governorate

Wheat food security indicators under improved irrigation conditions in Assiut Governorate

Pursuing China's provincial sustainable development goals within a safe and just operating space: Past, present and future

As emphasized by the challenging sustainable development agenda, countries are facing a complicated combination of environmental stress and social challenges, leading the Earth system towards an unsustainable path. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately assess past fluctuations contributing to current situations and apprehend plausible future implications. This study integrates safe and just operating space (SJOS) with Sustainable Development Goals to depict multiple “windows” of environmental and social evolution in different historical periods, with 31 provinces in China as a case study. Then, we track the spatiotemporal evolution trajectory of environmental performance and social well-being in each province from 2012 to 2021. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is utilized to capture the temporal relationships between various indicators and to forecast the spatial trends of SJOS in the provinces from 2022 to 2030. Research findings indicate that: (1) over the 2012–2021 period, the environmental performance of the majority of provinces far exceeds the warning thresholds, with no province falling within all threshold boundaries simultaneously. The phosphorus cycle is the most challenging boundary, with only 6.8% of provinces within the safe boundary over the past 10 years. In comparison, freshwater use performs the best, with 80% of provinces staying within the threshold. (2) Social well-being generally improves across all provinces from 2012 to 2021, but the spatial and temporal trajectories are more varied. All provinces meet the thresholds for the food security and employment indicators. However, none of the provinces meet the standard for the social equity indicator. (3) Over the 2022–2030 projection period, environmental performance and social well-being trend in opposite directions across provinces. This culminates in no province being entirely within the safe and just space by 2030. Sanitation shows the most significant change compared to other indicators. Xinjiang had the largest improvement at 59.12%, while Tianjin had the most significant downward trend at 53.88%. Adjustments in national policies and priorities are essential if China wants to accomplish the sufficiency of biophysical resources whilst ensuring social equity in the access and exploitation of these resources.

Analisa Tingkat Keberhasilan Program Taman Gizi Dikampung Yoboi Kabupaten Jayapura Berdasarkan Indikator Ketahanan Pangan Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The Nutrition Garden Program in Yoboi Village, Jayapura Regency, aims to enhance the accessibility and availability of nutritious food within the community, as part of efforts to achieve the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG): ending hunger and improving food security. This study aims to analyze the success rate of the program based on relevant food security indicators and identify factors influencing community participation in the program. The research methodology includes the collection of primary data through in-depth interviews with local residents and quantitative surveys, as well as secondary data from reports, official documents, and related literature. A comparative analysis with similar programs in other regions was also conducted to obtain a more comprehensive overview. The results of the study indicate that the Nutrition Garden Program has made a positive contribution to improving the accessibility and availability of nutritious food for the residents of Yoboi Village. Participants in the program reported an increase in the consumption of vegetables and fruits produced in their home gardens. Additionally, the program has raised awareness about the importance of balanced nutrition and healthy eating habits among the community. However, several challenges have led to a decline in community participation in the program after the Covid-19 pandemic. Identified factors include a lack of sustained support from local authorities, limited resources, and shifts in community priorities post-pandemic. This study provides recommendations to enhance the program's effectiveness through increased socialization, regular training, adequate resource provision, and closer collaboration with relevant stakeholders. In conclusion, despite the challenges, the Nutrition Garden Program has significant potential in supporting food security achievements in Yoboi Village. By implementing the given recommendations, the program is expected to operate more effectively and sustainably, thereby maximizing community participation.

Time-frequency dependence between fintech and development of carbon neutrality under climate policy uncertainty in China: implications for the ocean carbon sink market

PurposeThis paper explores whether fintech paves the way for the transition to carbon neutrality in the context of China’s climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) and the influence of the ocean carbon sink market.Design/methodology/approachWe apply a novel wavelet analysis technique to investigate the time-frequency dependence between the CCPU index, the CSI (China Securities Index) Fintech Theme Index (CFTI) and the Carbon Neutral Concept Index (CNCI).FindingsThe empirical results show that CCPU and CFTI have a detrimental effect on CNCI in high-frequency bands. Furthermore, in low-frequency domains, the development of CFTI can effectively promote the realization of carbon neutrality.Practical implicationsOur findings show that information from the CCPU and CFTI can be utilized to forecast the movement of CNCI. Therefore, the government should strike a balance between fintech development and environmental regulation and, hence, promote the use of renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions, facilitating the orderly and regular development of the ocean carbon sink market.Originality/valueThe development of high-quality fintech and positive climate policy reforms are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality targets and promoting the growth of the marine carbon sink market.

Mapping available water capacity as a soil production capital metric in Australia

This study aims to identify a key soil property influencing farmland prices as a soil production capital indicator for soil security. There is generally a strong relationship between farmland price and production capital, as well as with biomass production. From a soil-centric point of view, under dryland agriculture in Australia, we hypothesise that soil available water capacity (AWC) is a key soil property influencing farmland prices and consequently can act as a soil production capital indicator. Here, we relate soil AWC of Australia to median farmland prices using digital soil maps of AWC. The results revealed that AWC from 0 to 100 cm is significantly associated with farmland prices (r = 0.31, p-value<0.05), providing a linear regression to estimate the soil production capital. As long as the AWC (mm) is above 67.6, the coefficient suggests that a 1 mm increase in AWC (mm) results in an increment of 293.6 $/ha in farmland prices in Australia. Additionally, an assessment of the anthropological impact on soils was conducted through phenosoil-genosoil differentiation analysis. We concluded that despite the shared formation characteristics of each pedogenon, soils with the highest AWC were not necessarily chosen for agricultural purposes since European settlement. Furthermore, our findings indicate that phenosoils in Queensland and Tasmania have higher levels of insecurity, likely due to intensified and inappropriate farming that may result in AWC reductions. This analysis provides another perspective to quantify the capital dimension of soil security, valuing its critical role in sustainable food systems and ecosystem services.

Food security in Ukraine today’s conditions

The system-forming element of national security is food security, which guarantees effective management of the food system, ensuring the food needs of the appropriate quantity and quality of each country’s citizen. Despite the significant potential of the agricultural sector, which forms the basis of food security, the need to analyse the state of food security in the current situation is due to military operations on the territory of Ukraine, which led to its negative global results. In this regard, the need to develop effective strategies and legal regulation is essential to ensure national and global food security, which in turn requires coordination of efforts of all countries and international organisations through international cooperation. The study aims to establish a pattern regarding the current state of food security by analysing the impact of availability, access, usefulness and stability of food supply on food security. Research methods: comparative analysis; taxonomic analysis; systematisation, generalisation. The survey found that Ukraine’s position in the Global Food Security Index (FSI) among 113 countries in 2022 worsened by 13 points, where the worst indicators for domestic food security are sustainability and adaptability (43.5 points out of 100 and 94th place globally) and economic affordability of food (48.1 points out of 100 and 93rd place in the world). It was found that the actual consumption of vegetables, melons, potatoes, and oil in 2021 was slightly higher than the rational norm, indicating sufficient consumption of these products, while the actual consumption of products that are lower than the rational norm includes meat and meat products, milk and dairy products, fish and fish products, and fruits, berries, and grapes. It has been determined that since 2016, the number of kilocalories in the daily diet of the population of Ukraine has not reached the minimum norm of consumption of basic foodstuffs for the working population. It has been established that in 2020 and 2021, the value of the taxonomic indicator for assessing the level of food security (I) has been decreasing, i.e. the distance to the reference vector has been increasing, which indicates a decrease in the level of food security. The forecasting results suggest a downward trend in the food security index for the period 2022–2027, and there is an urgent need to take measures to eliminate this trend and improve the value of the index, which is extremely important for the security of the state, especially in times of war.

Подходы к выбору индикаторов региональной бюджетной безопасности (на примере арктических регионов России)

The article deals with the approach to selection of regional budget security indicators in order to develop a system of parameters to assess the regional budget security. The approach is based on the principle of identifying the interests of economic agents. The satisfaction level of regional authorities, economic entities, and population is considered as a budget security indicator. The express analysis based on the materials from the Arctic regions of Russia indicated an imbalance of interests of economic agents, which is further confirmed by the decline in regional and population welfare due to reduction in regional product volume redistributed through budgets and by the decrease in businesses financial results in context of the changing world economy conditions. Balance of economic interests will be achieved by the increase in budget revenues and per capita incomes.

Prioritizing Indicators for Rapid Response in Global Health Security: A Bayesian Network Approach

This study explored a Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) approach, developing two distinct models for prioritizing the seven indicators related to the “rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic” category within the context of both the specific category and the Global Health Security Index (GHS index). Utilizing data from the 2021 GHS index, the methodology involves rigorous preprocessing, the application of the augmented naive Bayes algorithm for structural learning, and k-fold cross-validation. Key findings show unique perspectives in both BBN models. In the mutual value of information analysis, “linking public health and security authorities” emerged as the key predictor for the “rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic” category, while “emergency preparedness and response planning” assumed precedence for the GHS index. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the critical role of “emergency preparedness and response planning” and “linking public health and security authorities” in extreme performance states, with “access to communications infrastructure” and “trade and travel restrictions” exhibiting varied significance. The BBN models exhibit high predictive accuracy, achieving 83.3% and 82.3% accuracy for extreme states in “rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic” and the GHS index, respectively. This study contributes to the literature on GHS by modeling the dependencies among various indicators of the rapid response dimension of the GHS index and highlighting their relative importance based on the mutual value of information and sensitivity analyses.