Index Of Confidence Research Articles

RISK-COMMUNICATION ISSUES IN RADIATION SAFETY: PREFERENCES OF THE PUBLIC IN THE LENINGRAD AND MURMANSK REGIONS ON THE SOURCES OF INFORMATION

A survey of the population of the Leningrad and Murmansk regions was conducted in 2016–2017. The survey was devoted to the study of preferred sources of information on radiation safety. The sample size in the Leningrad region was 962 respondents, and in the Murmansk region – 802 respondents. It was found that less than 30% of respondents living in the Leningrad and Murmansk regions show interest in obtaining information on radiation safety. The respondents noted the greatest importance in obtaining information on three topics: «the effect of radiation on the body and the impact on health», «radiation protection measures available at the place of residence», and «dangerous and safe radiation levels». The possibility of obtaining accessible and regular information about the radiation situation in the place of residence is in demand among approximately 45% of respondents in the Leningrad region and 37% in the Murmansk region. Television, Internet and the SMS alerts were most often chosen by respondents as the most appropriate source of such information. With age, the proportion of users of traditional media, especially television, is increasing, among women slightly more than among men. The population revealed distrust of the media as sources of information about the radiation situation and safety, the confidence index for all types of media is negative. In the Murmansk region, the index of confidence in the media is lower than that in the Leningrad region. Among all types of mass media, TV has the greatest confidence in the population. On the Internet, the official websites of Rospotrebnadzor and Rosatom, as well as the official websites of local authorities in the Leningrad region, which have positive trust index, have the greatest confidence in the population. Search services, blogs, social networks, media sites, and official sites of local authorities in the Murmansk region have negative confidence index. More than a half of the population considers the inclusion of special training programs in the system of secondary and higher education to be the most effective method of improving environmental literacy. The following methods of educational work are also in demand: lectures and seminars with the participation of specialists and watching videos.

Дыры в капитале компаний обрабатывающей промышленности: корпоративное управление и отраслевые ожидания

Transparent and effective corporate governance positively influences the financial stability of the company: it increases the investment attractiveness and reduces the cost of lending. For Russia, this problem is relatively new. And at the moment, corporate management in the manufacturing industry continues to be characterized by a high concentration of ownership and a combination of ownership and management functions. In this paper, using logistic regression we investigate the impact of corporate governance factors and sector expectations on a negative net worth of the companies in the period 2011-2015. The results showed, in particular, the probability of a negative company's net worth is higher, the lower the index of business confidence in the industry; the presence of agency problem; the smaller the number of member in the board of directors; the higher concentration of ownership; and, if company is not privately owned or joint stock company. Robustness of the coefficients of the final specification was confirmed.

MODERN STATE OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE REGION AS A FACTOR INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

The article proves the impact of the institutional environment, investigated through the index of entrepreneurial confidence, the number of bankruptcies of enterprises, on the dynamics of economic variables, in particular, on the return on invested capital (ROIC), which is an indicator of business risk. It is determined that for foreign investors, this indicator of business risk is one of the key in the decision-making process to invest in the real sector of the economy. The authors argue that, under the current conditions of the Russian economy, debt restructuring and lending to enterprises belonging to a group of related persons in order to improve the value of ROIC is dangerous because of the further increase in overdue debts of enterprises.

Modeling of the Deferred Demand on the Market of Household Appliances

Purpose of the study. Development of a mathematical tool for assessing and predicting strategies of deferred demand on the market of household appliances. Methodological basis of the study is the basic tenets of neo-Keynesian economic theory and methods of statistical analysis: the method of grouping and binary regression. Information basis is analytical materials, expert opinions and statistical data of the Federal Service of State Statistics of Russia and the Republic of Bashkortostan. A survey was carried out by the example of the market of household appliances in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The study analyzed more than 800 questionnaires of consumers of household appliances. The study results in the authors’ definition of deferred demand as an economic category, provides main reasons for the transfer of part of the demand into deferred in the face of uncertainty, identifies factors that shape deferred demand on the market of household appliances; marks general and specific features of the market of household appliances in the Republic of Bashkortostan distinguishing it from the Russian market as a whole; a model of binary regression was built and tested; a strong correlation between the amount of deferred demand, price index, dollar exchange rate, unemployment rate and the index of consumer confidence was proved, which allows to predict the subsequent deferred demand for household appliances. The proposed study results represent a continuation and development of the study of consumer demand and behavior conducted by the authors in this field.

Modeling customer satisfaction with new product design using a flexible fuzzy regression-data envelopment analysis algorithm

• An integrated fuzzy regression-DEA method is developed for customer satisfaction modeling. • A method is proposed for setting the associated product design attributes. • The 16 FR models will model the relationship between customer satisfaction and new product design. • Proposed algorithm is tested based on a case study in a freezer/refrigerator industry. The success of new products depends greatly on customer satisfaction and meeting the customer needs is vital for new product development. By incorporating customer needs in the design and development process, organizations can improve productivity for their new products and reduce the risks associated with new product markets. Hence, design teams require methods to model customer satisfaction when setting the associated product design attributes. Thus, different approaches have been developed for modeling the relationship between customer satisfaction and product design parameters. In this study, 16 well-known fuzzy regression (FR) models are considered to understand the relationship between customer satisfaction and new product design. The design of FR models is based on the 4Ps marketing mix (product, price, place, and promotion) concept in fuzzy environments. A flexible algorithm is then presented based on the index of confidence, error measures, and data envelopment analysis for selecting the best FR model. The applicability and usefulness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated experimentally based on an actual case study, where the flexible algorithm is employed to predict customer satisfaction with a new product design in the freezer / refrigerator industry.

Stability and adaptability of soybean cultivars in Minas Gerais.

Genotypes x environment (G x E) interaction consists of different behavior of genotypes cultivated in different environments. This interaction occurs due to the performance variation of each genotype in different environments. To reduce the effect of the interaction in soybean crops, some studies have been reported in the literature to study their adaptability and stability. However, these studies are still scarce in Minas Gerais State. Thus, the aim of this study was to verify the adaptability and stability of soybean cultivars and identify the cultivars that contribute least to the G x E interaction in Minas Gerais. Six soybean cultivars were evaluated in 9 different environments. The plots were composed of 4 rows of 5 m with a spacing of 0.5 m between rows, and only the two central rows were harvested. The inoculation with Bradyrhizobium japonicum was performed through sowing furrow. The fertilization followed the recommendations of the Soil Fertility Commission of Minas Gerais. Grain yield was evaluated in kg/ha after conversion to 13% moisture. After individual analysis, the joint analysis was performed by grouping the phenotypic means by the Scott and Knott (1974) test. Wricke's ecovalence methodologies and the Annicchiarico confidence index were applied for the adaptability and stability analysis. The interaction was decomposed into a simple and a complex part. The cultivars BRSMG 820RR and BRSMG 760SRR have wide adaptability and stability. The first one presents a better index of confidence and a small contribution to the interaction.

Objective structured clinical examination in practical teaching of 'Adult Surgical Nursing’

Objective To explore the application of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) in the 'Adult Surgical Nursing’ practical teaching. Methods OSCE testing approaches were designed from September 2014 to January 2015. A total of 52 students in Grade 2013 were tested in practical teaching of 'Adult Surgical Nursing’ using OSCE, which included comprehensive knowledge, trauma nursing, preoperative preparation, operation members′ preparation, operation cooperation, professional nursing procedures and judging ability of pictures and videos. The questionnaire surveys and test results analyzation were performed after the test. Results Qualification rate of OSCE test was 100%. Trauma nursing had the lowest score (73.19±4.27) and comprehensive knowledge had the highest score (83.77±4.41). The average index of difficulty and confidence were 0.63-0.78 and 0.66-0.72. According to questionnaire surveys, 96.2% of nursing students thought the OSCE needed to be promoted, 69.2% of nursing students felt tired during the test and 38.5% of nursing students considered that the localization of test affected students′ performance and the time controlling and place selection needed to be improved. Conclusions OSCE has good confidence and could truly report practical skills and comprehensive knowledge of nursing students. Nurses are stratified to the test. It could be optimized and promoted in the 'Adult Surgical Nursing’ practical teaching. Key words: Adult nursing; Surgical nursing; Objective structured clinical examination; Questionnaire survey; Practical teaching

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Otolaryngologic Manifestations of Various Rheumatic Diseases: Awareness and Practice Among Otolaryngologists.

Wegener's granulomatosis, Sarcoidosis, Sjögren's Syndrome, Behçet disease, Systemic lupus erythematosus, relapsing polychondritis, Churg-Strauss syndrome and Cogan syndromes are rheumatic diseases commonly encountered by otolaryngologists. The present study was designed to assess the understanding and practice about various ENT problems of rheumatic diseases amongst otolaryngologists. A group of 29 otolaryngologists was asked to fill questionnaire which was based on knowledge and practice of otolaryngologists about various otolaryngologic manifestations of rheumatic diseases. Chronic sinusitis was most frequently seen followed by recurrent oral ulcers while spontaneous septal perforation was most infrequently seen symptom by participants. Otolaryngologists showed high index of suspicion and confidence for Wegener's granulomatosis in comparison to other rheumatic diseases. There was no difference noted in practice of otolaryngologists of tertiary care centers and other practitioners. Eighty two percent of participants felt, they were not adequately trained about these diseases. Most of them (93%) felt that knowledge of such diseases is also necessary for post graduate training in Otolaryngology. Though otolaryngologists are aware of otolaryngologic manifestations of Rheumatic diseases but their index of suspicion, practical implication of knowledge and confidence for evaluation of such diseases is low. Educational sector should define a better medical curriculum for training in Otorhinolaryngology, head and neck surgery.

Information security: Risks related to the cultural capital of personnel (Review)

Based on the analysis of such current trends in the field of information security and the post-industrial economy as the paradigm of "security through development," the culture of information security as a necessity to reduce information-security risks, and the approach that considers a person as capital, the concept of the cultural capital of corporate information security as an integral part of the cultural capital of an organization is justified. A procedure is developed for the risk assessement of personnel in information security, based on the index of confidence as the ratio of the individual cultural information-security capital to the corporate cultural information-security capital.

Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

Addressing Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Relationship Between Crime and Consumer Confidence

Objectives This study revisits the relationship between property crime and economic conditions with the latter being represented by a collective economic perception variable in the form of the Index of Consumer Confidence (ICC). The present work takes this application to assess the severity of cross-sectional dependence and nonstationarity, two issues that are deemed pervasive in macro panels but have not been given sufficient consideration in previous research.

Otolaryngologic manifestations of various rheumatic diseases: Awareness and practice among Otolaryngologists

Wegener's granulomatosis, Sarcoidosis, Sjogren's Syndrome, Behcet disease, Systemic lupus erythematosus, relapsing polychondritis, Churg-Strauss syndrome and Cogan syndromes are rheumatic diseases commonly encountered by otolaryngologists. The present study was designed to assess the understanding and practice about various ENT problems of rheumatic diseases amongst otolaryngologists. A group of 29 otolaryngologists was asked to fill questionnaire which was based on knowledge and practice of otolaryngologists about various otolaryngologic manifestations of rheumatic diseases. Chronic sinusitis was most frequently seen followed by recurrent oral ulcers while spontaneous septal perforation was most infrequently seen symptom by participants. Otolaryngologists showed high index of suspicion and confidence for Wegener's granulomatosis in comparison to other rheumatic diseases. There was no difference noted in practice of otolaryngologists of tertiary care centers and other practitioners. Eighty two percent of participants felt, they were not adequately trained about these diseases. Most of them (93 %) felt that knowledge of such diseases is also necessary for post graduate training in Otolaryngology. Though otolaryngologists are aware of otolaryngologic manifestations of Rheumatic diseases but their index of suspicion, practical implication of knowledge and confidence for evaluation of such diseases is low. Educational sector should define a better medical curriculum for training in Otorhinolaryngology, head and neck surgery.

'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task.

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial-by-trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial-by-trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post-decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A hybrid algorithm based on fuzzy linear regression analysis by quadratic programming for time estimation: An experimental study in manufacturing industry

In time studies, estimation of the standard times with direct or indirect measurement methods is particularly difficult in companies having complex production schedules or ones employing an inexperienced workforce. Such companies require new and specific time measurement procedures. In this study, a new time estimation algorithm based on fuzzy linear regression analysis (FLRA) by quadratic programming (QP) is proposed for specific manufacturing systems. In our study, data is provided by one of the biggest casting and machining companies in Europe. The database includes items that have similar production processes. A fuzzy linear regression model is built by using the previously measured standard times of a product family. The model developed is used for estimating the standard times of the remaining products. FLRA based on QP approach facilitates integration of the central tendency of least squares and possible properties of fuzzy regression. The main factors that directly impact standard times are determined and used for the estimation of the fuzzy standard times. Through utilization of sum of squares error (SSE) and index of confidence (IC), the important factors in the model are identified. The use of QP makes it possible to reconcile the minimization of the deviation of central tendency and the spreads of membership functions in a simultaneous manner. In this study, the efficiency of the proposed algorithms in casting companies is authenticated. Besides, it is seen that this estimation procedure could be implemented easily for various sectors using the relevant algorithms.

Revisions to US labor market data and the public’s perception of the economy

Using the monthly “Employment Situation” reports for 1994–2013, this paper studies the revisions to US employment data. The paper shows that the first press release underestimates net job creation in expansions and overestimates it in downturns. The “errors” in reporting the data on the labor market can distort the public’s perception about the stance of the labor market and have some political consequences. This is well reflected by the finding that the job approval rating of President Obama, the index of consumer confidence, and the economic conditions index of Gallup have all been responding to the initial news on the US labor market as they were published in the Employment Situation reports.

DESEMPENHO DO IRRIGÂMETRO E DE MÉTODOS DE ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA PARA O MUNICÍPIO DE GUANAMBI-BA

Neste trabalho objetivou-se avaliar o desempenho do Irrigâmetro e de métodos de estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência, tendo como base o método de Penman-Monteith – FAO 56. Para estimativa da ET0 por meio dos métodos empíricos foram obtidos dados climáticos de uma estação meteorológica automática instalada no Campus do Instituto Federal da Bahia, localizado no município de Guanambi – BA. Para estimar a ET0 através do Irrigâmetro, foram usados seis equipamentos, com níveis de água dentro do evaporatório iguais a 3 e 4 cm, no qual foram feitas leituras diárias da lâmina de água evaporada. Para comparar os valores de ET0 medidos no Irrigâmetro com os estimados pelas equações empíricas, com os do método padrão Penman-Monteith – FAO 56 foram considerados os parâmetros da equação de regressão (a e b), o coeficiente de determinação (r²), a estimativa do erro padrão (EEP), o índice de concordância (d) e o índice de confiança ou desempenho (c). Os melhores métodos para a estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência foram: Radiação – FAO 24, Penmam modificado – FAO 24 e Irrigâmetro operando com nível de água igual a 3 cm.

Estudo da demanda evapotranspirométrica do munícipio de vitória da conquista/ba

The objective of this study, was estimate and analyze the demand evapotranspirometers of Vitoria da Conquista city, located in the southwestern state of Bahia/Brazil, and assess the performance of empirical methods of Modified Penman - FAO 24, Radiation - FAO 24 Blaney -Criddle - FAO 24, Samanni-Hargreaves (1985), Priestley-Taylor and Turc (1961), which were compared with the standard PenmanMonteith - FAO 56, on scales of one, three, five and seven days. Climatic variables were used for the period 1997 to 2010. To compare the values of ET0 estimated by the empirical equation and the standard method, were considered the parameters of the regression equation a and b, coefficient of determination (r²), correlation coefficient (r), estimated standard error (ESE) agreement index (d) and the index of confidence or performance (c). The results indicate that for purposes of design and management of irrigation systems in the region of Vitoria da Conquista, Bahia/Brazil one must adopt a value of up to 8 ET0 mm day-1, a value determined by the method of Penman Monteith - 56 FAO for the period 1997 to 2010. For other methods, all performed quite well with ratings ranging from Very Good to Great for the climatic conditions of the city under study.

A hybrid fuzzy regression-fuzzy cognitive map algorithm for forecasting and optimization of housing market fluctuations

This paper presents a hybrid algorithm based on fuzzy linear regression (FLR) and fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) to deal with the problem of forecasting and optimization of housing market fluctuations. Due to the uncertainty and severe noise associated with the housing market, the application of crisp data for forecasting and optimization purposes is insufficient. Hence, in order to enable the decision-makers to make decisions with respect to imprecise/fuzzy data, FLR is used in the proposed hybrid algorithm. The best-fitted FLR model is then selected with respect to two indicators including Index of Confidence (IC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). To achieve this objective, analysis of variance (ANOVA) for a randomized complete block design (RCBD) is employed. The primary objective of this study is to utilize imprecise/fuzzy data in order to improve the analysis of housing price fluctuations, in accordance with the factors obtained through the best-fitted FLR model. The secondary objective of this study is the exhibition of the resulted values in a schematic way via FCM. Hybridization of FLR and FCM provides a decision support system (DSS) for utilization of historical data to predict housing market fluctuation in the future and identify the influence of the other parameters. The proposed hybrid FLR-FCM algorithm enables the decision-makers to utilize imprecise and ambiguous data and represent the resulted values of the model more clearly. This is the first study that utilizes a hybrid intelligent approach for housing price and market forecasting and optimization.

Investor Optimism, False Hopes and the January Effect

This paper proposes that the January Effect is at least partly explained by a behavioral framework based on optimistic expectations. The turn-of-the-year is hypothesized to be a time of renewed optimism. Indeed, investor sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Confidence, peaks in January. Thus, optimists are expected to bid up the stock prices of firms with higher levels of uncertainty in January. These firms will subsequently underperform as they disappoint investors during the remainder of the year. Despite the disappointment, the January pattern persists due to the “false hope syndrome” described in the psychology literature. Using forecast dispersion to proxy for uncertainty, the results are consistent with the optimism hypothesis. Similar reasoning may help explain other anomalies.