Independent Predictor Of Long-term Survival Research Articles

Prognostic implications of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Diagnosing heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is difficult due to overlapping pathophysiological pathways, risk factors and clinical presentations. We investigated the prevalence and prognostic implications of coexisting HFpEF in patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of COPD. A total of 116 consecutive patients with an acute exacerbation of COPD were evaluated for HFpEF and followed for an average period of 22±9months for the occurrence of death from any cause. HFpEF was diagnosed in 22 (19%) patients with COPD, who were older, and also had higher LV mass, left atrial size, and mitral E/Ea ratio than those without HFpEF (p<0.05 for all comparisons). HFpEF was not independently associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44-2.62]. Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage (IV vs. I-III, HR 2.37, CI 1.23-4.59) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels (HR 2.79, CI 1.12-6.98) were independent predictors of long-term survival. HFpEF is present in one-fifth of patients with exacerbated COPD. Non-invasively diagnosed HFpEF may not be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. Elevated NT-proBNP levels and very severe COPD were independently associated with unfavorable overall survival.

Influence of anastomotic leakage on long-term survival after resection for rectal cancer

To investigate the influence of anastomotic leakage (AL) on long-term survival after resection for rectal cancer. Clinicopathological data of 653 rectal cancer cases confirmed by pathology and undergoing R0 resection for rectal cancer in our department from January 2007 to December 2011 were retrospectively analyzed. Anastomotic leakage was found in 40 cases (AL group) and not in the other 613 cases (non-AL group). After median 47 (1-91) months of follow-up, 5-year disease-free survival rate, distant metastasis rate and local recurrence rate were compared between the two groups. Risk factors affecting long-term prognosis were also analyzed. The 5-year disease-free survival rate, 5-year distant metastasis rate, and 5-year local recurrence rate were 78.1%, 14.2% and 4.2% in the non-AL group, and 74.5%, 20.1% and 8.4% in the AL group respectively, and the differences were not statistically significant (P=0.808, P=0.965, P=0.309). Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy, TNM staging, abnormal CA199, preoperative low level of albumin were independent prognostic factors of rectal cancer patients after R0 resection, while AL was not an independent factor of 5-year disease-free survival (P=0.910). Further multivariate analysis on 507 cases receiving postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy also revealed that AL was not an independent factor of 5-year disease-free survival (P>0.05). Percentage difference of patients finishing postoperative chemotherapy between the two groups was not statistically significant (79.4% vs. 76.3%, P=0.681). AL is not an independent predictor of long-term survival for rectal cancer.

Clinical Characteristics Associated with Long-term Survival in Metastatic Gastric Cancer after Systemic Chemotherapy.

Systemic chemotherapy for patients with metastatic gastric cancer (MGC) is generally palliative, although some patients experience long-term survival after treatment. Thus, we identified clinical characteristics that are associated with long-term survival of patients with MGC after palliative chemotherapy. We retrospectively reviewed 514 MGC patients who received systemic chemotherapy at our institution from 2001 to 2008. To identify clinical predictors of survival beyond 2 years, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, and 5-year survival rates were estimated among MGC patients following chemotherapy. Among 514 patients, 96 (19%) and 16 (3%) survived beyond 2 and 5 years, respectively, and performance status of 0 or 1 (odds ratio [OR]=3.39; p=0.01), previous gastrectomy (OR=1.86; p=0.01), single metastatic site (OR=1.80; p=0.03), and normal alkaline phosphatase levels (OR=2.81; p<0.01) were identified as independent predictors of long-term survival. Of the 16 5-year survivors, six were alive at the end of the study and showed no evidence of disease despite cessation of chemotherapy. The present data demonstrate distinct clinical characteristics that are associated with long-term survival of MGC patients, and indicated that palliative chemotherapy can be curative in highly selected patients.

Prognostic Score of Long-Term Survival After Surgery for Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: A Multicenter Analysis

Despite ongoing efforts to improve therapy in malignant pleural mesothelioma, few patients undergoing extrapleural pneumonectomy experience long-term survival (LTS). This study aims to explore predictors of LTS after extrapleural pneumonectomy and to define a prognostic score. From January 2000 to December 2010, we retrospectively reviewed clinicopathologic and oncological factors in a multicenter cohort of 468 malignant pleural mesothelioma patients undergoing extrapleural pneumonectomy. LTS was defined as survival longer than 3 years. Associations were evaluated using χ(2), Student's t, and Mann-Whitney U tests. Logistic regression, Cox regression hazard model, and bootstrap analysis were applied to identify outcome predictors. Survival curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to estimate optimal cutoff and area under the curve for accuracy of the model. Overall, 107 patients (22.9%) survived at least 3 years. Median overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival times were 60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 51 to 69), 63 (95% CI, 54 to 72), and 49 months (95% CI, 39 to 58), respectively. At multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.82), epithelioid histology (odds ratio, 7.07; 95% CI, 1.56 to 31.93), no history of asbestos exposure (odds ratio, 3.13; 95% CI, 1.13 to 8.66), and the ratio between metastatic and resected lymph nodes less than 22% (odds ratio, 4.12; 95% CI, 1.68 to 10.12) were independent predictors of LTS. According to these factors, we created a scoring system for LTS that allowed us to correctly predict overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival in the total sample, obtaining two different groups with favorable or poor prognosis (area under the curve, 0.74; standard error, 0.04; p < 0.0001). Our prognostic model facilitates the prediction of LTS after surgery for malignant pleural mesothelioma and can help to stratify the outcome and, eventually, tailor postoperative treatment.

Long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis: the U.K. Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Registry.

The U.K. Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Registry reported 30-day and 1-year mortality rates of 7.1% and 21.4%, respectively, for patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in the United Kingdom between 2007 and 2009. The study aim was to report long-term outcomes in this same cohort of patients. There are few data on outcomes beyond 3 years after TAVR in any notable number of patients. Data from all TAVR procedures performed in the United Kingdom between January 2007 and December 2009 were prospectively collected. All-cause mortality status was reported in March 2014. Mortality tracking was achieved in 97.7% patients. The minimal time from replacement to census was 4.1 years, and the maximal time was 7.0 years. The 3- and 5-year survival rates were 61.2% and 45.5%, respectively. Independent predictors of 3-year mortality were renal dysfunction (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.65), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.36), logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)≥18.5 (HR: 1.33), respiratory dysfunction (HR: 1.28), and ventricular dysfunction (left ventricular ejection fraction<30%) (HR: 1.53). Coronary artery disease (HR: 1.28) and age (HR: 1.03) were additional independent predictors of mortality at 5 years. Stroke within 30 days of TAVR was the only independent procedural predictor of mortality at 3 and 5 years (HR: 2.17 at 3 years). Device type, access route, and paravalvular leak did not independently predict long-term outcome. In the large U.K. Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Registry, long-term outcomes after TAVR are favorable with 3- and 5-year survival rates of 61.2% and 45.5%, respectively. Long-term survival after TAVR is largely determined by intrinsic patient factors. Other than stroke, procedural variables, including paravalvular aortic leak, did not appear to be independent predictors of long-term survival.

Detailed analysis of epithelial-mesenchymal transition and tumor budding identifies predictors of long-term survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is characterized by aggressive biology and poor prognosis even after resection. Long-term survival is very rare and cannot be reliably predicted. Experimental data suggest an important role of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in invasion and metastasis of PDAC. Tumor budding is regarded as the morphological correlate of local invasion and cancer cell dissemination. The aim of this study was to evaluate the biological and prognostic implications of EMT and tumor budding in PDAC of the pancreatic head. Patients were identified from a prospectively maintained database, and baseline, operative, histopathological, and follow-up data were extracted. Serial tissue slices stained for Pan-Cytokeratin served for analysis of tumor budding, and E-Cadherin, Beta-Catenin, and Vimentin staining for analysis of EMT. Baseline, operative, standard pathology, and immunohistochemical parameters were evaluated for prediction of long-term survival (≥ 30 months) in uni- and multivariate analysis. Intra- and intertumoral patterns of EMT marker expression and tumor budding provide evidence of partial EMT induction at the tumor-host interface. Lymph node ratio and E-Cadherin expression in tumor buds were independent predictors of long-term survival in multivariate analysis. Detailed immunohistochemical assessment confirms a relationship between EMT and tumor budding at the tumor-host interface. A small group of patients with favorable prognosis can be identified by combined assessment of lymph node ratio and EMT in tumor buds.

BCR-ABL1 Transcript of 7.93% at 3 Months Is an Early Predictor for Long-Term Survival to Second-Line Therapy Using Next Generation Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors in Imatinib-Resistant Chronic Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

AbstractBackground: The first BCR-ABL1 tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), imatinibmesylate (IM), has become a first-line therapy for chronic phase (CP) chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). However, approximately one third of IM-treated patients discontinue therapy due to an inadequate response or adverse event. More potent second or third generation TKIs such as nilotinib, dasatinib, radotinib, bosutinib and ponatinib have developed and these agents have shown high rates of hematologic and cytogenetic responses after failure of IM therapy. Although the new European Leukemia Net (ELN) recommendation serves provisionally the definitions of the response to second-line therapy, early molecular milestones which are associated with the best long-term are not confirmed. The aim of this study was to identify 3-month molecular milestone for predicting long-term survival to second-line therapy using second or third generation TKIs in CP CML patients who showed a failure or warning to IM.Methods: Between March 2005 and January 2014, 198 CP CML patients with failure or warning to IM (defined by 2013 ELN recommendation) had been treated with nilotinib, dasatinib, radotinib, bosutinib or ponatinib as a second-line therapy. Among them, 180 patients had available molecular data at 3 months from the initiation of second-line therapy. Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curveanalysis, the predictive cutoffs of BCL-ABL1 transcripts at 3 months for progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were evaluated. OS included any death regardless of causes, and PFS included progression to AP or BP as well as death resulting from any reason. OS and PFS were also collected on patients who were treated with other TKIs after failure of second-line TKI therapy.Results: A total of 180 patients were treated with second-line TKI, dasatinib (n=66), nilotinib (n=61), radotinib (n=44), bosutinib (n=7), and ponatinib (n=2). 119 men and 61 women were included and their median age was 42 years (range, 15-75). Using a ROC curve analysis, BCR-ABL1 transcript level 7.93% on the international scale, at 3 months were predictive cutoffs for both PFS and OS. The median follow-up for survivors since the start of second-line TKI was 78.73 months (range, 6.3-114.0 months). 104 patients continue on therapy and 76 patients were permanently discontinued due to intolerance (n=38), failure (n=20), progression (n=14), and others (n=4). The7-year PFS and OS were 82.6% and 85.3%, respectively. The patients with transcript levels below 7.93% at 3 months had significantly better 7-year PFS (95.1% vs. 60.4%; P < 0.001) and OS (96.3% vs. 67.9%; P < 0.001). After adjusting for potential factors affecting PFS and OS in univariate analyses, multivariate analyses showed that BCR-ABL1 transcript of 7.93% at 3 months was the independent predictor for PFS (RR of 8.37, P < 0.001) and OS (RR of 13.53, P = 0.001). In addition, increasing age (RR of 1.05, P = 0.023) and presence of BCR-ABL1 kinase domain abnormalities (KDA) at baseline (RR of 5.83, P = 0.007) were associated with a lower OS.Conclusions: Our data showed BCR-ABL1 transcript of 7.93% at 3 months was an early independent predictor for long-term survival to second-line TKIs in IM-resistant CP CML. It implies that the patients who failed an achievement of reduction of BCR-ABL1transcripts to this level may require more precise monitoring on second-line therapy, allowing early clinical intervention using other third-line TKI therapy or allografting. DisclosuresNo relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

The effect of reverse remodeling on long-term survival in mildly symptomatic patients with heart failure receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy: results of the REVERSE study.

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces mortality, improves functional status, and induces reverse left ventricular remodeling in selected populations with heart failure (HF). The magnitude of reverse remodeling predicts survival with many HF medical therapies. However, there are few studies assessing the effect of remodeling on long-term survival with CRT. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of CRT-induced reverse remodeling on long-term survival in patients with mildly symptomatic heart failure. The REsynchronization reVErses Remodeling in Systolic Left vEntricular Dysfunction trial was a multicenter, double-blind, randomized trial of CRT in patients with mild HF. Long-term follow-up of 5 years was preplanned. The present analysis was restricted to the 353 patients who were randomized to the CRT ON group with paired echocardiographic studies at baseline and 6 months postimplantation. The left ventricular end-systolic volume index (LVESVi) was measured in the core laboratory and was an independently powered end point of the REsynchronization reVErses Remodeling in Systolic Left vEntricular Dysfunction trial. A 68% reduction in mortality was observed in patients with ≥15% decrease in LVESVi compared to the rest of the patients (P = .0004). Multivariable analysis showed that the change in LVESVi was a strong independent predictor (P = .0002), with a 14% reduction in mortality for every 10% decrease in LVESVi. Other remodeling parameters such as left ventricular end-diastolic volume index and ejection fraction had a similar association with mortality. The change in left ventricular end-systolic volume after 6 months of CRT is a strong independent predictor of long-term survival in mild HF.

Early organ dysfunction affects long-term survival in acute pancreatitis patients

BackgroundThe effect of early organ dysfunction on long-term survival in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients is unknown. ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to ascertain whether early organ dysfunction impacts on long-term survival after an episode of AP. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed using survival data sourced from a prospectively maintained database of patients with AP admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh during a 5-year period commencing January 2000. A multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) score of ≥2 during the first week of admission was used to define early organ dysfunction. After accounting for in-hospital deaths, long-term survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier test. The prognostic significance of patient characteristics was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox's proportional hazards methods. ResultsA total of 694 patients were studied (median follow-up: 8.8 years). Patients with early organ dysfunction (MODS group) were found to have died prematurely [mean survival: 10.0 years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4–10.6 years] in comparison with the non-MODS group (mean survival: 11.6 years, 95% CI 11.2–11.9 years) (log-rank test, P=0.001) after the exclusion of in-hospital deaths. Multivariate analysis confirmed MODS as an independent predictor of long-term survival [hazard ratio (HR): 1.528, 95% CI 1.72–2.176; P=0.019] along with age (HR: 1.062; P<0.001), alcohol-related aetiology (HR: 2.027; P=0.001) and idiopathic aetiology (HR: 1.548; P=0.048). ConclusionsEarly organ dysfunction in AP is an independent predictor of long-term survival even when in-hospital deaths are accounted for. Negative predictors also include age, and idiopathic and alcohol-related aetiologies.

Is neoadjuvant chemotherapy mandatory for limited-disease small-cell lung cancer?

The present study attempted to evaluate the role of neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with surgery in limited-disease small-cell lung cancer (LD-SCLC). A retrospective analysis was performed on 106 LD-SCLC patients who underwent complete resections from February 2000 to February 2012 in Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital. Among these cases, two cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapies were administered to all pathologically confirmed patients [Group Neoadjuvant (Group N)]. For those without pathology, operations followed by adjuvant chemotherapies were performed [Group Adjuvant (Group A)]. Prognostic features and overall survival (OS) were compared using the log-rank test and calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Group N included 47 cases and Group A included 59 cases. A total of 57 patients were male and 49 were female, with a mean age of 56.1 ± 10.2 years. A total of 41 patients were at pathological stage (p-Stage) IIIa, and 65 patients were at I or II. The overall 5-year survival rate (5-YS) was 28%. The 5-YS for p-Stage I-II (n = 65) was significantly better than that of p-Stage III (n = 41) (35 vs 20%, P = 0.034). For p-Stage IIIa (pN2 positive), the 5-YS of Group N was significantly better than that of Group A (34 vs 12%, P = 0.020). The median overall survival for Group N and Group A in IIIa (pN2 positive) LD-SCLC patients were 46 and 15 months (P = 0.009), respectively. Multivariate analysis for survival showed mediastinal lymph node involvement; surgery and histopathology of SCLC were both significant independent predictors of long-term survival. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with surgery provided reasonable options for pIIIa-N2 LD-SCLC patients, which can give them a better chance of survival.

Preoperative White Matter Lesions Are Independent Predictors of Long-Term Survival after Internal Carotid Endarterectomy

Background: Cerebral white matter lesions (WMLs) predict long-term survival of conservatively treated acute stroke patients with etiology other than carotid stenosis. In carotid endarterectomy patients, WMLs are associated with severe carotid stenosis and unstable plaques, with the risk of perioperative complications and with increased 30-day perioperative risk of death. However, no data exist on their effect on postoperative long-term survival, a factor important when considering the net benefit from carotid endarterectomy. Whether this effect is independent of classical risk factors and indications for surgery is not known either. We hypothesized that WMLs could be evaluated from preoperative routine computed tomography (CT) scans and are predictors of postoperative survival, independent of classical cardiovascular risk factors, indication category and degree of carotid stenosis. Methods: A total of 353 of 481 (73.4%) consecutive patients subjected to carotid endarterectomy due to different indications, i.e. asymptomatic stenosis (n = 28, 7.9%), amaurosis fugax (n = 52, 14.7%), transient ischemic attack (n = 135, 38.2%) or ischemic stroke (n = 138, 39.1%), from prospective vascular registries during the years 2001-2010 with digital preoperative CT scans, were included in the study. WMLs were rated by a radiologist (Wahlund criteria) in a blinded fashion. Internal carotid artery (ICA) stenoses were angiographically graded (<50, 50-69, 70-99 and 100%). Odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) are reported (ORs and HRs ≤1 indicate a beneficial effect). The median follow-up time was 67 months (interquartile range 45.5, range 0-129 months). Spearman's rho was used to estimate intraobserver agreement. Binary logistic regression was performed to analyze the association of risk factors with WMLs. Cox regression proportional hazards analysis was used to study the effect of different factors on survival. Results: WML severity could be assessed with a substantial intraobserver agreement (Spearman's rho 0.843, p < 0.0001). Only age (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.15; p < 0.0001 per year), degree of ipsilateral ICA stenosis (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.08-4.55; p < 0.05 per stenosis grade) and indication category (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.19-2.24; p < 0.01 per category) remained independently associated with WMLs. Age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.08; p < 0.05 per year), diabetes (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.01-2.49; p < 0.05), peripheral arterial disease (HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.46-4.15; p < 0.01), degree of ipsilateral ICA stenosis (HR 2.56, 95% CI 1.12-5.87; p < 0.05 per stenosis grade) and WMLs (HR 3.83, 95% CI 1.17-12.5; p < 0.05) remained independently associated with increased long-term mortality. Conclusions: WMLs in a preoperative CT scan provide a substantially reliable estimate of postoperative long-term survival of carotid endarterectomy patients independent of currently used criteria, i.e. cardiovascular risk factors, indication category and degree of ipsilateral ICA stenosis.

Long-term survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic and periampullary adenocarcinomas

Background: Long-term survival for those with pancareatic cancer is not common. Aims: This study was to identify predictors for long-term survival and to compare survivals for periampullary adenocarcinomas after a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Patients & methods: Clinicopathological factors were compared between short-term ( 5 years) survival groups. Both actuarial and actual 5-year survival, as well as actuarial 10-year survival for those that survived over 5 years, were determined. Results: There were 109 (21.8%) long-term survivors. Most (76%) of the long-term survivors were those with ampullary adenocarcinoma. Long-term survival was highest for ampullary adenocarcinoma (32.8%) and lowest for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (6.5%). Jaundice, tumor size, and lymph node involvement were found to be independent predictors for long-term survival. Prognosis was significantly worse for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, which had an actuarial 5-year survival of only 6.7%. There was no difference in subsequent actuarial 5-year survival (actuarial 10-year survival) between pancreatic adenocarcinoma and other periampullary adenocarcinomas for patients surviving over 5 years after resection. However, there was a difference in actuarial and actual 5-year survivals. Conclusion: Jaundice, tumor size, and lymph node involvement are independent predictors for long-term survival after pancreaticoduodnectomy. The biological factors of pancreatic adenocarcinoma no longer play a role in determining the prognosis for those who survive to the 5 year landmark.

Liver Transplantation in Highest Acuity Recipients

To identify medical predictors of futility in recipients with laboratory Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores of 40 or more at the time of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Although the survival benefit for transplant patients with the highest MELD scores is indisputable, the medical and economic effort to bring these highest acuity recipients through OLT presents a major challenge for every transplant center. This study was undertaken to analyze outcomes in patients with MELD scores of 40 or more undergoing OLT during the period February 2002 to December 2010. The analysis was focused on futile outcome (3-month or in-hospital mortality) and long-term posttransplant outcome. Independent predictors of futility and failure-free survival were identified and a futility risk model was created. During the study period, 1522 adult cadaveric OLTs were performed, and 169 patients (13%) had a MELD score of 40 or more. The overall 1, 3, 5, and 8-year patient survivals were 72%, 64%, 60%, and 56%. Futile outcome occurred in 37 patients (22%). MELD score, pretransplant septic shock, cardiac risk, and comorbidities were independent predictors of futile outcome. Using all 4 factors, the futility risk model had a good discriminatory ability (c-statistic 0.75). Recipient age per year, life-threatening postoperative complications, hepatitis C, and metabolic syndrome were independent predictors for long-term survival in nonfutile patients (Harrels c-statistic 0.72). Short- and long-term outcomes of recipients with MELD scores of 40 or more are primarily determined by disease-specific factors. Cardiac risk, pretransplant septic shock, and comorbidities are the most important predictors and can be used for risk stratification in these highest acuity recipients.

Radiofrequency ablation following first-line transarterial chemoembolization for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria

BackgroundRecent studies suggest that a combination of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) may have theoretical advantages over TACE alone for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of radiofrequency ablation following first-line TACE treatment in the management of HCC beyond the Milan Criteria.MethodsForty-five patients who consecutively underwent RFA following first-line TACE treatment for HCC beyond the Milan criteria were enrolled in this study. RFA was performed within 1–2 months after TACE treatment in patients who had incomplete necrotic tumor nodules. Primary effectiveness, complications, survival rates, and prognostic factors were evaluated retrospectively.ResultsComplete ablation was achieved in 76.2% of the lesions according to 1-month follow-up computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging evaluation. The mean follow-up period was 30.9 months (range 3–94 months). There were no major complications after RFA therapy. The median overall survival was 29 months (range 20–38 months), with 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival of 89%, 61%, and 43%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor diameter (P = 0.045, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.228, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.054-0.968) and pretreatment serum alpha-fetoprotein level (P = 0.024, HR = 2.239, 95% CI: 1.114-4.500) were independent predictors for long-term survival.ConclusionsHCC beyond the Milan criteria can be completely and safely ablated by radiofrequency ablation following first-line TACE treatment with a low rate of complications and favorable survival outcome. Further assessment of the survival benefits of combination treatment for HCCs beyond the Milan Criteria is warranted.

Characteristics and prognostic factors of synchronous multiple primary esophageal carcinoma: A report of 52 cases.

To retrospectively analyze the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of 52 cases of synchronous multiple primary esophageal carcinoma (SMPEC), in order to provide a reference for treatment strategy. Clinical and survival data of 52 patients with SMPEC were analyzed retrospectively. The rates of overall survival (OS), depending on the different factors, were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. A log-rank test was used for univariate survival analysis and Cox's proportional hazards regression model was used for multivariate survival analysis. Clinical and survival data of 52 patients with SMPEC, hospitalized from 1 January 2003 to 31 October 2011, were analyzed. Twelve patients underwent surgical resection, five received adjuvant radiotherapy and one received adjuvant radiochemotherapy. Thirty-seven of the 40 non-operative patients received external beam radiation therapy and 20 of them received platinum-based chemotherapy. Another three non-operative patients were given platinum-based chemotherapy alone. The one, three, and five-year OS and the median survival time (MST) were 65.4%, 17.3%, 7.7%, respectively, and 15.0 months for the whole cohort. Tumor length and M stage were independent prognostic factors for the whole cohort by multivariate survival analysis (P = 0.010 and 0.047, respectively). For the radiotherapy subgroup, multivariate analysis of prognostic factors identified that shorter tumor length, M0 stage, and chemotherapy were the predominant independent predictors of long-term survival (P = 0.039, 0.022 and 0.010, respectively). SMPEC is a relatively rare and aggressive tumor. Combined radiotherapy with chemotherapy seemed to bring a survival benefit and may be a better management choice for unresectable and non-operative SMPEC.

Clinical and imaging predictors of 1-year and long-term mortality in light chain (AL) amyloidosis: a 5-year follow-up study

Light chain amyloidosis (AL) involves multiorgan failure induced by amyloidogenic light chain proteins, and is associated with high mortality. We aimed to identify clinical, laboratory, and imaging parameters that would predict 1-year and long-term AL mortality. Forty-four biopsy-proven AL patients (61.5 ± 12 years, 20 females) underwent clinical evaluation including laboratory assays, echocardiography, and contrast cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR, n = 31) prior to chemotherapy. Patients were prospectively followed for median duration of 62.7 months (interquartile range 35.5 months). Clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between 1-year survivors and nonsurvivors. Univariate Kaplan-Meier survival plots were calculated followed by stepwise logistic regression analysis to assess independent predictors of long-term survival. Eighteen (40.9 %) patients died within 1 year and an additional 10 subjects died during long-term follow-up. Patients who expired within 1 year presented with more advanced class of heart failure, higher alkaline phosphatase and uric acid, lower limb lead voltage on electrocardiography, shorter left ventricular ejection time (ET) on echocardiography, and a higher proportion of late gadolinium enhancement on CMR. On multivariable analysis, only ET ≤240 ms on echocardiography (hazard ratio (HR) 5.07, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.83-14.1, P = 0.002) and New York Heart Association functional class II-IV presentation (HR 1.0058, 95 % CI 1.0014-1.0103, P = 0.01) were independent predictors of AL mortality. In conclusion, AL amyloidosis is associated with high 1-year and long-term mortality. Among clinical, laboratory, and imaging parameters tested, an echocardiographic finding of ET ≤240 ms has independent and additive prognostic value to clinical heart failure evaluation in determining long-term survival of AL patients. This result may be important in the early identification of patients at risk.

TCT-410 Comparison of Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery, Percutaneous Drug-eluting Stent Implantation, and Medical Therapy for Unprotected Left Main Coronary Artery Disease

Background: Unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease is considered an indication for revascularization. However, in “real-world” clinical practice some patients receive medical therapy only. The arm of this study was to evaluate long-term results in patients with ULMCA disease in a “real-world” practice. Methods: Between January 2006 and June 2011, 218 stable patients were diagnosed with de novo ULMCA stenosis. 52 (23.9%) patients received medical therapy only, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was performed in 106 (48.6%) patients, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in 60 (27.5%) patients. The composite of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke defined as major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and target vessel revascularization (TVR) were defined as primary endpoints. The median follow-up period was 4 years. Results: Baseline clinical and descriptive morphology of coronary artery disease revealed more comorbidities and more complex anatomies in the medical therapy group compare with CABG and PCI groups. Revascularization might not have been used due to physician's decision (operative risk considered excessive) in 24 (46.2%) cases or when patients refused revascularization in 28 (53.8%) cases. At 4-year follow-up MACCE rate was higher in nonsurgical group (34.6%) compare with CABG (13.2%; p1⁄40.002) and PCI (14.5%; p1⁄40.016) groups, but there was no difference between CABG and PCI groups. Survival in CABG (4.7%; p<0.001) and PCI (5.5%; p1⁄40.009) groups was higher in compare with nonsurgical group (23.1%). On the multivariable Cox regression analysis, coronary revascularization (CABG and PCI) was independent predictor of long-term survival (HR 3.49; 95% CI 1.39-8.75; P<0.001). Conclusions: PCI, like CABG improves survival for patients with unprotected left main coronary artery disease compared with medical therapy only in “real-world” clinical practice.

Predicted postoperative lung function is associated with all-cause long-term mortality after major lung resection for cancer

Preoperative lung function is an independent predictor of long-term survival after lung resection for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The extent of resection has an impact on operative mortality, determines postoperative lung function and may influence both overall- and cancer-specific survival. We sought to determine the impact of predicted postoperative (ppo) lung function on long-term survival after lung cancer resection. We previously reported long-term survival analyses for patients who underwent major lung resection for NSCLC 1980-2006. For this study, we calculated ppo spirometry (forced expiratory volume in the first second, FEV1) and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) in the same cohort using the functional segment technique or quantitative perfusion scans when available, and updated survival data; missing data were imputed. We assessed the relationship of ppoFEV1 and ppoDLCO to long-term survival using Cox regression. Of 854 patients, 471 (55%) were men, the mean age was 63 years and median survival was 42 months. At the time of analysis, 70% of patients had died. On regression analysis, all-cause mortality was related to age, stage, performance status, renal function and prior myocardial infarction. Preoperative lung function was marginally associated with mortality [DLCO (10-percentage point decrease): HR (hazard ratio) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.00-1.08, P = 0.056; FEV1 (10-percentage point decrease): HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.09, P = 0.067]. In contrast, ppo lung function was strongly associated with mortality (ppoDLCO: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12, P = 0.024; ppoFEV1: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12, P = 0.031). Ppo lung function is strongly associated with long-term survival after major lung resection and is more strongly related to survival than preoperative lung function. Surgeons struggle with challenging decisions about the appropriate extent of resection for early-stage cancer, balancing factors such as operative morbidity/mortality, local recurrence and postoperative quality of life. Ppo lung function and its relation to survival also should be taken into consideration during such deliberations.

315 * BENEFITS OF MINIMALLY INVASIVE OVER FULL STERNOTOMY AORTIC VALVE REPLACEMENT SURGERY: A PROPENSITY-MATCHED COMPARISON

(FS = 1572, MIS = 479) during the study period. The mean follow-up was 3.1 ± 2.7 years (6367 patient-years). MIS patients were significantly younger (67.8 ± 11.2 vs 70.4 ± 9.4, P< 0.001) and had a lower logistic EuroSCORE (6.6 ± 6.4% vs 11.2 ± 13.4%, P< 0.001). FS patients had a significantly shorter cross-clamp time (56.1 ± 17.3 vs 59.0 ± 16.8 min, P< 0.001), but cardiopulmonary bypass times (82.3 ± 21.7 vs 82.2 ± 25.7 min, P= 0.184) were similar. Propensity matching resulted in 477 patients from each group. After matching, there were no significant differences in any preoperative variables between groups. FS patients had a lower rate of re-exploration for bleeding than MIS patients (1.5 vs 4.2%, P= 0.019). However, MIS AVR was associated with a significantly lower 30-day mortality (0.8 vs 2.9%, P= 0.032), and a better five- and eight-year survival (89.3 ± 2.4% and 77.7 ± 4.7% vs 81.8 ± 2.2% and 72.8 ± 3.1%, P= 0.034). Cox regression analysis revealed MIS (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.26-0.87), age (HR 1.049, 95% CI 1.021.07), preoperative liver failure (HR 5.027, 95% CI 2.51-10.08), and preoperative dialysis (HR 7.340, 95% CI 2.81-19.17) as independent predictors of long-term survival. Conclusions: MIS AVR is associated with excellent early and long-term survival and should be considered as standard of care for patients undergoing bioprosthetic AVR. Interactive CardioVascular and Thoracic Surgery

Preoperative atrial fibrillation and long-term survival after open heart surgery in a rural tertiary heart institute

BackgroundPreoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality after open heart surgery. However, the impact of preoperative AF on long-term survival after open heart surgery has not been widely examined in rural populations. Patients from rural regions are less likely to receive treatment for cardiac conditions and to have adequate medical insurance coverage. ObjectiveTo examine the influence of preoperative AF on long-term survival following open heart surgery in rural eastern North Carolina. MethodsLong-term survival was compared in patients with and without preoperative AF after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and CABG plus valve (CABG + V) surgery between 2002 and 2011. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using a Cox regression model. ResultsThe study population consisted of 5438 patients. A total of 263 (5%) patients had preoperative AF. Preoperative AF was an independent predictor of long-term survival (open heart surgery: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3–2.0; CABG: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3–2.1; CABG + V: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.1–2.3). ConclusionPreoperative AF is an important predictor of long-term survival after open heart surgery in this rural population.