Independent Predictor Of Stroke Recurrence Research Articles

Abstract 213: Cerebral Microbleeds in 1278 Lacunar Stroke Patients: The Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes (SPS3) Trial

Background: Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are radiographic markers of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) reported to independently predict recurrent stroke and mortality. However, characterization of CMBs in a large population of pure CSVD is lacking. We aimed to characterize CMBs in a well-defined population of lacunar stroke patients, and assess the relationship between CMBs and recurrent stroke and death. Methods: SPS3 was a randomized trial investigating optimal blood pressure target and antiplatelet regimen in 3020 patients with recent, symptomatic, MRI-confirmed lacunar stroke. CMBs were rated as per the Brain Observer MicroBleed Scale in all participants who had an interpretable axial T2*- GRE sequence available as part of their baseline MRI (n=1278, intra-rater reliability for + CMB 91% agreement, Kappa = 0.82). Results: CMBs were present in 30% of 1278 patients (mean age 63 y, 65% male, 75% history of hypertension). CMBs were lobar in 21%, deep in 44%, and mixed in 35% of cases. Of patients with CMBs, most (57%) had 1-2 CMBs, 31% had 3-10, and 12% >10. Male gender (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.3), history of hypertension (1.6, 1.2-2.3), increased systolic blood pressure (1.2 per 20 mmHg, 1.1-1.4), non-diabetic (1.4, 1.1-1.9), multiple lacunar infarcts (1.9, 1.5-2.5) and moderate (1.7, 1.2-2.3) or severe (4.2, 3.0-5.9) white matter hyperintensities on MRI were independently associated with the odds of having CMBs in multivariable logistic regression. During a mean follow-up of 3.3 y, overall stroke recurrence was 2.5% per patient-y. In comparison to patients without CMBs, those with CMBs had a two-fold increased risk of stroke (HR 2.1, 1.4-3.1), after adjusting for assigned treatments and risk factors, whereas those with >10 CMBs had a four-fold increased risk (HR 4.0, 1.8-8.7). CMBs were not a risk factor for death (HR 1.2, 0.8-2.0). There were no interactions between CMBs and treatment assignments. Conclusions: In this largest reported cohort of lacunar stroke investigating CMBs, CMBs were highly prevalent and an independent predictor of stroke recurrence. Accordingly, patients with lacunar stroke and CMBs likely represent a more aggressive form of CSVD in need of efficacious therapeutic strategies. Further research is warranted in this field.

2014 Canadian Stroke Congress Abstracts

d’Esterre, CD1, 3 Qazi, E1, 3 Patil, S1, 3 Almekhlafi, M3, 1 Lee, T2, 3 Demchuk, A1, 3 Goyal, M1, 3 Menon, B1, 3; 1. University of Calgary, Calgary, AB; 2. University of Western Ontario, London, ON; 3. Calgary Stroke Program, Calgary, AB Background : For ischemic stroke, CT Perfusion (CTP) may change thrombolytic/endovascular treatment decisions when compared to NCCT/CTA alone. Two distinct thresholds may be useful in this regard: separation of 1) non-salvageable tissue (infarct core) from salvageable electrically silent tissue (penumbra), and 2) penumbra from benign oligemia (hypoperfused, but will survive if clot persists). Methods : CTP (120s,8cm) was performed on 180 patients within 12hrs of ischemic stroke. Two patient cohorts were analyzed: (1) recanalization (TICI 2b,3) 6s. For group (2) CBF, CBV, and Tmax values were obtained from within the final infarct region, and total ipsilateral hemisphere, excluding infarction. CBF, CBV and Tmax were used in univariate regression models. Results : For group (1)[n=11], mean time from CTP to recanalization was 60±19min. CBF parameter (thresholds for gray and white matter 7.2 and 5.2 ml•min-1•(100g)-1) had the highest sensitivity (90.9%) and specificity (81.8%) for infarction. For group (2)[n=15], the Tmax parameter (thresholds for gray and white matter 11.3s and 11.8s) had the highest sensitivity (86.6%) and specificity (80.0%) for penumbra. Conclusion : Knowing the status of recanalization within 90mins of CTP allows for accurate delineation of infarct core, as …

Abstract 66: MRI Predictors of Stroke Recurrence in Patients With Recent Lacunar Stroke: The SPS3 Trial

Background: Brain infarcts (BIs) and white matter hyperintesities (WMHs) have been associated with an increased risk of stroke. However, neither has been investigated in a well characterized cohort of patients with cerebral small vessel disease. Our objective was to identify MRI predictors of recurrent stroke in the SPS3 cohort. Methods: SPS3 was a multicenter trial that enrolled 3020 patients with recent lacunar stroke verified by MRI. Baseline MRIs were centrally read, including presence of index infarct, old subcortical brain infarcts (also called lacunar infarcts) (BIs), and WMHs using the ARWMC score, and independent predictors of recurrent stroke identified. A stratification scheme for stroke risk was developed based on MRI findings and previously identified clinical risk factors (RF) of prior stroke/TIA, black race, male, diabetes. Results: 2980 MRIs were included in these analyses. BIs (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2, 1.9) and more severe WMHs (HR 1.4, CI 1.2, 1.6) were independently associated with recurrent stroke, and remained independent after including clinical RF and assigned treatments in the Cox PH model. Anatomical localization of the index stroke was not associated with stroke recurrence. Annualized recurrent stroke rates were 5.2 %/pt-yr (95% CI 4.3, 6.2), 2.7% (95% CI 2.2, 3.4), and 1.7% (95% CI 1.1, 1.7) respectively in high (> 2 of the following: prior stroke/TIA, BIs, severe WMD, or all 3 other clinical RF), moderate (not high risk; prior stroke/TIA or 2 clinical RF), and low (not moderate or high risk; 0-1 clinical RF) risk patients. Conclusions: In this large, well-characterized cohort of recent lacunar strokes, old subcortical infarcts and WMHs on MRI are shown to be independent predictors of stroke recurrence. Stratification schemes may help to identify patients at different risk and select the most appropriate therapeutic intervention for stroke reduction.

Predictive value of brain and vascular imaging including intracranial vessels in transient ischaemic attack patients: external validation of the ABCD3‐I score

Recently, brain and vascular imaging have been added to clinical variables to identify patients with transient ischaemic attack (TIA) with a high risk of stroke recurrence. The aim of our study was to externally validate the ABCD3-I score and the same score taking into account intracranial circulation. We analyzed data from 1137 patients with TIA from the PROMAPA study who underwent diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) within 7 days of symptom onset. Clinical variables and diagnostic work-up were recorded prospectively. The end-points were subsequent stroke at 7 and 90 days follow-up. A total of 463 (40.7%) subjects fulfilled all inclusion criteria. During follow-up, eight patients (1.7%) had a stroke within 7 days, and 14 (3.1%) had a stroke within 3 months. In the Cox proportional hazard multivariate analyses, the combination of large-artery atherosclerosis and positive DWI remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence at 7- and 90-day follow-up [HR 8.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.89-23.46, P < 0.001]. The ABCD3-I score was a powerful predictor of subsequent stroke. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% CI 0.72-0.93) at 7 days and 0.69 (95% CI 0.53-0.85) at 90 days. When we include intracranial vessel disease in the score, the area under the curve increases but the difference observed was non-significant. The inclusion of vascular and neuroimaging information to clinical scales (ABCD3-I score) provides important prognostic information and also helps management decisions, although it cannot give a complete distinction between high-risk and low-risk groups.

Stroke Risk After Posterior Circulation Stroke/Transient Ischemic Attack and its Relationship to Site of Vertebrobasilar Stenosis

Recent prospective studies have shown vertebrobasilar (VB) stenosis predicts stroke risk in posterior circulation stroke and transient ischemic attack. It is unclear whether this association is independent of other risk factors, and whether intracranial or extracranial stenosis confers different risks. A pooled individual patient analysis of data from 2 prospective studies was performed in 359 patients presenting with VB transient ischemic attack or stroke. Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography, or computed tomography angiogram, and clinical follow-up were available in 323 patients. Risk of stroke was calculated from any VB transient ischemic attack/stroke in the month before the presenting episode (first event) and from the presenting event. A systematic review of similar prospective studies was performed. Ninety-day risk of stroke from the first event was 24.6% in patients with VB stenosis versus 7.2% in those without (odds ratio, 4.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-8.6; P<0.0001). Risk was higher (33%) with intracranial (odds ratio, 6.5; 2.8-15.0; P<0.0001) than extracranial stenosis (16.2%; odds ratio, 2.5; 0.9-6.8; P=0.06). Risk from the presenting event was 9.6% in patients with stenosis versus 2.8% in those without (odds ratio, 3.7; 1.2-11.0; P=0.012), and again the risk was higher with intracranial stenosis. Cox regression showed the risk associated with VB stenosis was independent of other cardiovascular risk factors. The systematic review identified only 1 other report, which included only 6 patients. Symptomatic VB stenosis, particularly intracranial stenosis, is a strong independent predictor of stroke recurrence. The high early risk of stroke provides a strong rationale for randomized trials to determine whether stenting can reduce risk.

Recurrent transient ischaemic attack and early risk of stroke: data from the PROMAPA study

BackgroundMany guidelines recommend urgent intervention for patients with two or more transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) within 7 days (multiple TIAs) to reduce the early risk of stroke.ObjectiveTo determine whether all...

Carotid plaque inflammation on 18F‐fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography predicts early stroke recurrence

Symptomatic carotid stenosis is associated with a 3-fold risk of early stroke recurrence compared to other stroke subtypes. Current carotid imaging techniques rely on estimating plaque-related lumen narrowing but do not evaluate intraplaque inflammation, a key mediator of plaque rupture and thromboembolism. Using combined (18) F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography (FDG-PET)/computed tomography, we investigated the relation between inflammation-related FDG uptake and stroke recurrence. Consecutive patients with a recent (median, 6.5 days; interquartile range, 4-8) stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or retinal embolism and ipsilateral carotid stenosis (≥50%) were included. FDG uptake was quantified as mean standardized uptake values (SUVs, g/ml). Patients were followed prospectively for stroke recurrence. Sixty patients were included (25 stroke, 29 TIA, 6 retinal embolism). Twenty-two percent (13 of 60) had stroke recurrence within 90 days. FDG uptake in ipsilateral carotid plaque was greater in patients with early recurrent stroke (mean SUV, 1.85 g/ml; standard deviation [SD], 0.44 vs 1.58 g/ml; SD, 0.32, p = 0.02). On life-table analysis, 90-day recurrence rates with mean SUV greater than a 2.14 g/ml threshold were 80% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41.8-99.2) versus 22.9% (95% CI, 12.3-40.3) with SUV ≤2.14 g/ml (log-rank, p < 0.0001). In a Cox regression model including age and degree of stenosis (50-69% or ≥70%), mean plaque FDG uptake was the only independent predictor of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 6.1; 95% CI, 1.3-28.8; p = 0.02). In recently symptomatic carotid stenosis, inflammation-related FDG uptake was associated with early stroke recurrence, independent of the degree of stenosis. Plaque FDG-PET may identify patients at highest risk for stroke recurrence, who may be selected for immediate revascularization or intensive medical treatment.

Abstract 2967: Recurrent TIA and Early Risk of Stroke

Background: Many guidelines recommend urgent intervention for TIA patients with 2 or episodes within 7-days to reduce the early risk of stroke. However, whether all patients with multiple TIAs are at high early risk of stroke is unknown. Methods: Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1255 consecutive TIA patients from 30 Spanish stroke centers (PROMAPA study). We prospectively recorded clinical characteristics. We also determined the early short-term risk of stroke (at seven and ninety days). Aetiology of TIA was categorised using the SSS-TOAST classification Results: Enough information was assessed in 1137 patients (90.6%). 7-day and 90-day stroke risk were 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. Atherosclerotic etiology (AE) was confirmed in 190 (16.7%) patients. Recurrent TIA was observed in 274 (24,1%) patients. Duration&lt;1 hour (OR 2.94, 95% CI 2.18-3.96, p&lt;0.001), AE (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.39-2.78, p&lt;0.001) and motor weakness (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.82, p&lt;0.029) were independent predictors of recurrent TIA. The subsequent risks of stroke in these patients at 7, and 90 days were significantly higher than those after a single TIA (5.8% versus 1.5%, p&lt;0.001 and 6.8% versus 3.0%, respectively. HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.28-4.31 p=0.006). In the Cox logistic regression model, among patients with recurrent TIA, no variable remained remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence at 90-day Conclusion: According to our results, recurrent TIA within 7-days is associated with a greater subsequent stroke risk than after a single TIA. Nevertheless, we were not able to find any independent predictor of stroke recurrence among these patients.

Abstract 3064: Validation of ABCD3-I Score: Predictive Value of Brain and Vascular Imaging in Transient Ischemic Attack Patients

Objective: Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) is not only a sensitive diagnostic tool for detecting acute ischaemic lesions in patients with transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) but also a prognostic tool. Morever, large-artery aterosclerosis (LAA) is a marker of poor prognosis. Recently, brain and vascular imaging have been added to a new prognostic score: ABCD(3)-I score. Methods: We analyzed data from TIA patients of the PROMAPA study who underwent diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) within 7 days of symptom onset. Items that contribute to the ABCD(3)-I score (age, blood pressure, clinical weakness, duration, diabetes, LAA, recurrence events and DWI), other clinical variables and stroke recurrence at seven- and 90-day follow-up were recorded. RESULTS: 462 TIA patients were included in the study. DWI abnormalities were identified in 117 (46.1%) patients. During follow-up, eight patients (1.7%) had a stroke within 7 days, and 14 (3.1%) had a stroke within 3 months. In cox proportional In the Cox logistic regression model, the combination of LAA and positive DWI remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence at 90-day follow-up (HR 8.23, 95 CI 2.89-23.46, p&lt;0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79 (0.68-0.91, p=0.005) at 7 days and 0.67 (0.51-0.83, p=0.029) at 90 days. Conclusion: The combination of neuroimaging and vascular information improve prognostic accuracy in patients with TIA. ABCD3-I could select patients at high risk of very early recurrent stroke who need immediate evaluation and treatment.

Abstract 2756: Carotid Plaque Inflammation On 18 F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Predicts Early Stroke Recurrence- The Dublin Carotid Atherosclerosis Stroke Study

Background Symptomatic carotid stenosis is associated with a 3-fold risk of early stroke recurrence compared to other stroke subtypes. Current carotid imaging techniques rely on estimating plaque-related lumen narrowing but do not evaluate intra-plaque inflammation, a key mediator of plaque rupture and thromboembolism. Using combined 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/CT (FDG-PET/CT) we investigated the relationship between inflammation-related FDG uptake and stroke recurrence. Methods Consecutive patients with a recent (median 6.5 days [IQR 4-8]) stroke, TIA, or retinal embolism and ipsilateral carotid stenosis ( ≥50%) were included. FDG uptake was quantified as mean standardised uptake values (SUV, g/ml). Patients were followed prospectively for stroke recurrence. Results 60 patients were included (25 stroke, 29 TIA, 6 retinal embolism). 22% (13/60) had stroke recurrence within 90 days. FDG uptake in ipsilateral carotid plaque was greater in patients with early recurrent stroke (mean SUV 1.85 [SD 0.44] vs. 1.58 [SD 0.32] g/ml, p=0.02). On life-table analysis, 90-day recurrence rates with mean SUV greater than a 2.14g/ml threshold were 80% (CI 41.8-99.2%) versus 22.9% (CI 12.3-40.3%) with SUV ≤2.14g/ml (log-rank p&lt;0.0001). In a Cox regression model including age and degree of stenosis (50-69% or ≥70%), mean plaque FDG uptake was the only independent predictor of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio 6.1, CI 1.3-28.8, p=0.02). Conclusion In recently-symptomatic carotid stenosis, inflammation-related FDG uptake was associated with early stroke recurrence, independent of the degree of stenosis. Plaque FDG-PET may identify patients at highest risk for stroke recurrence, who may be selected for immediate revascularisation or intensive medical treatment.

Prediction of Early Stroke Recurrence in Transient Ischemic Attack Patients from the PROMAPA Study: A Comparison of Prognostic Risk Scores

Background: Several clinical scales have been developed for predicting stroke recurrence. These clinical scores could be extremely useful to guide triage decisions. Our goal was to compare the very early predictive accuracy of the most relevant clinical scores [age, blood pressure, clinical features and duration of symptoms (ABCD) score, ABCD and diabetes (ABCD2) score, ABCD and brain infarction on imaging score, ABCD2 and brain infarction on imaging score, ABCD and prior TIA within 1 week of the index event (ABCD3) score, California Risk Score, Essen Stroke Risk Score and Stroke Prognosis Instrument II] in consecutive transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients. Methods: Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1,255 consecutive TIA patients from 30 Spanish stroke centers (PROMAPA study). A neurologist treated all patients within the first 48 h after symptom onset. The duration and typology of clinical symptoms, vascular risk factors and etiological work-ups were prospectively recorded in a case report form in order to calculate established prognostic scores. We determined the early short-term risk of stroke (at 7 and 90 days). To evaluate the performance of each model, we calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cox proportional hazards multivariate analyses determining independent predictors of stroke recurrence using the different components of all clinical scores were calculated. Results: We calculated clinical scales for 1,137 patients (90.6%). Seven-day and 90-day stroke risks were 2.6 and 3.8%, respectively. Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was observed in 190 patients (16.7%). We could confirm the predictive value of the ABCD3 score for stroke recurrence at the 7-day follow-up [0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54–0.77] and 90-day follow-up (0.61, 95% CI 0.52–0.70), which improved when we added vascular imaging information and derived ABCD3V scores by assigning 2 points for at least 50% symptomatic stenosis on carotid or intracranial imaging (0.69, 95% CI 0.57–0.81, and 0.63, 95% CI 0.51–0.69, respectively). When we evaluated each component of all clinical scores using Cox regression analyses, we observed that prior TIA and LAA were independent predictors of stroke recurrence at the 7-day follow-up [hazard ratio (HR) 3.97, 95% CI 1.91–8.26, p < 0.001, and HR 3.11, 95% CI 1.47–6.58, p = 0.003, respectively] and 90-day follow-up (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.28–4.31, p = 0.006, and HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.15–4.21, p = 0.018, respectively). Conclusion: All published scores that do not take into account vascular imaging or prior TIA when identifying stroke risk after TIA failed to predict risk when applied by neurologists. Clinical scores were not able to replace extensive emergent diagnostic evaluations such as vascular imaging, and they should take into account unstable patients with recent prior transient episodes.

Low Ankle-Brachial Index predicts early risk of recurrent stroke in patients with acute cerebral ischemia

Objective Low Ankle-Brachial Blood Pressure Index (ABI) identifies patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic peripheral arterial disease (PAD). We sought to investigate the association of low ABI with early risk of stroke recurrence in patients with acute cerebral ischemia (ACI) and without history of symptomatic PAD. Methods Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and no previous history of PAD were prospectively evaluated with ABI measurements. Demographic characteristics, vascular risk factors and secondary prevention therapies were documented. An ABI ≤0.90 in either leg was considered as evidence of asymptomatic PAD, and an ABI >0.90 was considered as normal. Patients with elevated ABI (>1.30) were excluded. The outcome of interest was recurrent stroke during 30-day follow-up. Results A total of 176 patients with acute cerebral ischemia (mean age 64 ± 14 years, 59.1% men, 76.7% AIS) were evaluated. Asymptomatic PAD was detected in 14.8% (95%CI: 10.2–20.8%) of the studied population. The following factors were independently associated with low ABI on multivariate logistic regression models, after adjustment for potential confounders: coronary artery disease ( p = 0.008), diabetes mellitus ( p = 0.017) and increasing age ( p = 0.042). The cumulative 30-day recurrence rate was higher in patients with low ABI (19.2%; 95%CI: 4.1–34.3) compared to the rest (3.3%; 95%CI: 0.4–6.2%; p = 0.001). Atherothrombotic stroke (ASCO grade I; p < 0.001), increasing age ( p = 0.002) and low ABI ( p = 0.004) were independent predictors of stroke recurrence on multivariate Cox regression models adjusting for confounders. Conclusions Low ABI appears to be associated with a higher risk of early recurrent stroke in patients with ACI and no history of symptomatic PAD.

Long-term prognosis of symptomatic isolated middle cerebral artery disease in Korean stroke patients

BackgroundThis study aimed to investigate the long-term mortality and recurrence rate of stroke in first-time stroke patients with symptomatic isolated middle cerebral artery disease (MCAD) under medical management.MethodsWe identified 141 first ever stroke patients (mean age, 64.4 ± 12.5 years; 53% male) with symptomatic isolated MCAD. MCAD was defined as significant stenosis of more than 50% or occlusion of the MCA as revealed by MR angiography. The median follow-up was 27.7 months. We determined a cumulative rate of stroke recurrence and mortality by Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and sought predictors using the Cox proportional hazard model.ResultsThe cumulative composite outcome rate (stroke recurrence or any-cause death) was 14%, 19%, 22%, and 28% at years 1, 2, 3, and 5, respectively. The annual recurrence rate of stroke was 4.1%. The presence of diabetes mellitus was the only significant independent predictor of stroke recurrence or any cause of death in multivariate analyses of Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for any plausible potential confounding factors.ConclusionsWe estimated the long-term prognosis of stroke patients with isolated symptomatic MCAD under current medical management in Korea. Diabetes mellitus was found to be a significant predictor for stroke recurrence and mortality.

Recurrence Risk after Noncardioembolic Mild Ischemic Stroke in a Japanese Population

Background and Purpose: This study aimed to identify the recurrence rate and risk factors or clinical variables predictive of vascular events after mild ischemic stroke (IS). Methods: From December 2006 to September 2007, patients with acute IS with a modified Rankin Scale of 0∼1 were consecutively enrolled in this study. Variables including sex, family history of vascular disease, age, height, weight, stroke subtype, blood pressure, lipid profile, fasting glucose, HbA1c, smoking, alcohol consumption, exercise habits, waist circumference, ankle-brachial pressure index, salt intake and physical activity were assessed. The primary outcome was stroke recurrence or other vascular events such as myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and peripheral artery disease. Survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and hazard ratios for recurrence were determined by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: A total of 102 mild IS patients (78 men and 24 women, mean age 64 years) were successfully followed for 3 years. Of those 102 patients, 25 (24.5%) had stroke recurrence, and 4 (3.9%) had a coronary event. Among the variables studied, abnormal ankle-brachial pressure index, metabolic syndrome, stroke subtypes, salt intake and poor lifestyle management were significant independent predictors of stroke recurrence or cardiovascular events. Conclusions: In mild IS patients within 3 years after onset, not only pathophysiological factors but also lifestyle factors can aid in the identification of patients at high risk for recurrence.

Patterns of diffusion‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging associated with etiology improve the accuracy of prognosis after transient ischaemic attack

diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) is a sensitive diagnostic tool for detecting acute ischaemic lesions in patients with transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs). The additional predictive value of DWI lesion patterns is not well known. two hundred and fifty-four consecutive patients with TIA underwent DWI within 7 days of symptom onset. The presence and pattern of acute ischaemic lesions were related to clinical features, etiology, and stroke recurrence at seven- and 90-day follow-up. diffusion-weighted images abnormalities were identified in 117 (46.1%) patients. The distribution of DWI lesions was cortical, 31; subcortical, 32; scattered lesions in one arterial territory (SPOT) 42; and in multiple areas, 12. SPOT were significantly associated with motor weakness, large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), and the cardioembolic subtype of TIA. Single cortical lesions were also associated with cardioembolism, whereas subcortical acute lesions were associated with recurrent episodes, dysarthria, and motor weakness. During follow-up, seven patients had a stroke within 7 days (2.8%, 95% CI 2.9-6.4%), and 12 had a stroke within 3 months (4.7%%, 95% CI 2.9-6.4%). In the Cox logistic regression model, the combination of LAA and positive DWI remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence at 90-day follow-up (HR 5.78, 95 CI 1.74-19.21, P = 0.004). according to our results, MRI, including DWI, should be considered a preferred diagnostic test when investigating patients with potential TIAs. The combination of neuroimaging and vascular information could improve prognostic accuracy in patients with TIA.

PREDICTORS OF STROKE RECURRENCE IN HIGH-RISK, HYPERTENSIVE PATIENTS: 3B.01

Background: Risk factors for first stroke are well established, but risk factors for stroke recurrence are not well known. Long-term predictors of stroke recurrence recently investigated in 2 874 patients in London were atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction and hypertension. We aimed to identify independent predictors of stroke recurrence in VALUE Trial participants. Design and Methods: The VALUE trial was a prospective, multicentre, double-blind, randomised, active-controlled, parallel group trial comparing the effects of an angiotensin receptor blocker (valsartan) and a calcium channel blocker (amlodipine) in patients with hypertension and high cardiovascular risk. Of the 15 245 patients included in the trial, 3 014 had a previous stroke or TIA at baseline. We used Cox regression analysis to investigate the predictors of stroke recurrence in this population. Quadratic terms of the continuous variables were entered in the models to test for linearity. Results: Stroke recurrence occurred in 239 (8.9%) patients during the mean 4.1 years of follow-up. In the multivariate Cox regression model controlling for race, gender, treatment type, baseline diabetes status, baseline fasting glucose level, baseline beta-blocker treatment, baseline diuretic treatment, body mass index, smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, atrial fibrillation, systolic and diastolic BP, both the linear term and quadratic term for ECG heart rate per 10 beats per minute (HR 2.78; 95% CI 1.18–6.58; p = 0.02, HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.89–0.996; p = 0.035) and diabetes at baseline (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.03–2.09; p = 0.034) significantly increased the risk of stroke recurrence. A trend was seen for the quadratic term for age (HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.99–1.31; p = 0.07). In the stepwise Cox regression model, both the quadratic and linear term for ECG heart rate and the quadratic term for age remained significant predictors of recurrent stroke (p < 0.05).Conclusion: In a high-risk, hypertensive population with previous stroke, ECG heart rate per 10 beats per minute and age are the strongest predictors of recurrent stroke.

Association Between Anatomic Features of Atrial Septal Abnormalities Obtained by Omni-Plane Transesophageal Echocardiography and Stroke Recurrence in Cryptogenic Stroke Patients with Patent Foramen Ovale

The association between the anatomic characteristics obtained by omni-plane transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) and stroke recurrence in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale (PFO) remains unclear. In the present longitudinal follow-up study, we sought to investigate whether PFO findings assessed by TEE can predict stroke recurrence. Of the 1,014 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke referred for TEE, 184 (mean +/- SD age, 51 +/- 14 years) were classified as having cryptogenic stroke with PFO, and follow-up data were available for 181 patients. During follow-up (median 3.5 years), 14 patients (7.7%) experienced stroke recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that atrial septal aneurysm or hypermobility of the atrial septum (hazard ratio 6.04, 95% confidence interval 1.84 to 19.86, p = 0.003) and PFO size (hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 4.60, p <0.0001) were independent predictors of stroke recurrence. The optimal cutoff value of PFO to predict stroke recurrence within 3 years was 3.0 mm (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 3.7 mm, area under the curve 0.889, p <0.001) with a sensitivity and specificity of 90.0% and 79.4%, respectively. Using this cutoff, the 3-year stroke recurrence-free survival rates differed significantly (98.9 +/- 1.1% vs 71.5 +/- 16.2%, p <0.001). In conclusion, our data suggest that risk stratification might be possible using the findings from TEE. The prophylactic benefit of PFO closure from these findings needs additional investigation.

Statin therapy after first stroke reduces 10-year stroke recurrence and improves survival

To determine whether statin therapy after hospital discharge affects ischemic stroke recurrence and long-term mortality in patients admitted for a first-ever occurrence of ischemic stroke. This was a retrospective observational study involving linked hospitalization and death records. The cohort comprised a series of 794 consecutive, first-ever acute ischemic stroke patients from the Athenian Stroke Registry, admitted to the acute stroke unit and the general medicine and neurology ward of our institutions since January 1997 for whom there was available information covering a 10-year follow-up period. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors for stroke recurrence and death. The recurrence rate was 16.3% among stroke patients not receiving a statin after hospital discharge compared with 7.5% among those who received statin therapy (p = 0.002). Cox regression analyses revealed only statin therapy postdischarge to be a significant independent predictor of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39 to 0.97, p < 0.01). Similarly, patients receiving a statin had a significantly lower mortality during the 10-year period after the acute cerebrovascular event (adjusted HR, 0.43; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.61, p < 0.01). Prescribing statin therapy upon hospital discharge to patients with first-ever acute stroke lowers the risk of 10-year stroke recurrence and improves survival.

Usefulness of Intensity Variation in the Left Atrial Appendage With Contrast Echocardiography to Predict Ischemic Stroke Recurrence in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

The left atrial appendage (LAA) is 1 of the common thromboembolic sources in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with stroke. The aim of this study was to examine the usefulness of LAA opacification seen on contrast echocardiography for predicting stroke recurrence in patients with AF. In 192 patients with stroke with AF who underwent transesophageal echocardiography within 7 days after the onset, intracardiac intensity variation at the orifice of the LAA just after intravenous infusion of Levovist (1,500 mg) was measured. During a mean follow-up of 450 days, the association between LAA intensity variation and recurrence of cerebrovascular events was assessed. LAA intensity variation was markedly lower in 19 patients with stroke recurrence than 173 patients without stroke recurrence (8.1 +/- 4.7 vs 12.1 +/- 5.1 dB; p <0.001). LAA thrombus-negative patients with low LAA intensity variation (< or =9.2 dB; n = 45) had higher cerebrovascular recurrent event rates than those with high LAA intensity variation (>9.2 dB; n = 109; 20.0% vs 3.7%; p <0.001) and thrombus-positive patients (15.8%). Cox multivariate hazard analysis showed that of routine echocardiographic parameters, decreased LAA intensity variation was the only independent predictor of stroke recurrence (hazard ratio 5.244, p <0.01). In conclusion, LAA intensity variation on contrast transesophageal echocardiography is a new sensitive index for LAA flow stagnation and recurrent cerebrovascular events in patients with AF with stroke.

Recurrent stroke: The role of common carotid artery intima-media thickness

The etiology of recurrent stroke is probably multifactorial and many recurrences remain unexplained by conventional risk factors. The purpose of this study is to investigate if common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT), an established vascular risk factor, can predict recurrence in first-ever stroke survivors. Two hundred and eighty-four consecutive patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke were investigated with carotid ultrasonography and were screened for the first recurrent stroke up to 12 months. Sixteen (5.6%, 95% CI: 3.5–9.0%) recurrent ischemic strokes were recorded. Among demographic data, conventional vascular risk factors, presenting stroke features and ultrasonographic measurements, CCA-IMT was the only parameter that differed significantly between those who suffered a recurrent stroke and those who did not. Cox’s regression analysis adjusted for confounding factors, showed that CCA-IMT was the only independent predictor of stroke recurrence (HR 1.65; 95% CI: 1.11–2.46%). We propose that CCA-IMT measurements may help to identify stroke patients at higher risk for recurrence and to plan secondary prevention strategies.