Independent Directors Research Articles

The Influence of Women on Boards on the Relationship between Executive and Employee Remuneration

The growing presence of women at the top of companies has sparked interest in examining their role in the remuneration gap between senior managers and employees. This article analyses the traditional Chief Executive Officer (CEO)-to-employee pay ratio but includes a new relation, the senior-management-to-employee pay ratio, and extends the research by including six positions for women in company management: on the board of directors, executive directors, CEOs, proprietary directors, independent directors, and senior managers. The study is based on a sample of 77 listed companies in Spain from 2015 to 2022 and the panel data models have been estimated using the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). The main findings indicate that the proportion of women in different categories of board and senior management positions has a positive effect on the CEO-to-employee pay ratio, especially in companies with higher market capitalisation. In contrast, the proportion of women in senior management positions has a negative effect on the CEO-to-employee pay ratio in all the samples analysed. Government agencies should prioritise the participation of women in non-board senior management positions in order to at least reduce the pay gap between senior managers and employees.

Legal status of an independent board member: A comparative perspective between the legal position in Kuwait and USA

While there is no clear definition of what corporate governance is, corporate governance principles can be described as an intervention in the management of a company. Every listed company must have a board of directors. One of the most important corporate governance principles is to strengthen the board composition by having an independent director. This article deals with one of the most important issues related to corporate governance of Kuwait's main securities market: having independent directors on the board. Corporate governance as it relates to listed companies is sensitive to economic, social and political variables. Consequently, the 2015 Kuwaiti Corporate Governance Code (KCGC) raises a number of questions. For example, what requirements should list companies follow when appointing independent directors? To what extent are listed companies obliged to apply it in present circumstances? Finally, can practical solutions be found that will satisfy the parties concerned? In discussing the role of independent director in KSE, this paper will compare the provisions of corporate governance in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and those in Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE). This article will be underpinned by a comparative legal analysis of the NYSE relating to corporate governance in an effort to improve the KCGC. Keywords: independent director, corporate governance, Kuwaiti Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange

Attention mechanism enhanced LSTM networks for latency prediction in deterministic MEC networks

In deterministic mobile edge computing (MEC) networks, accurately predicting latency is critical for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing quality of service (QoS). This paper introduces a novel approach leveraging attention mechanism enhanced long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to predict latency in MEC networks. The proposed model integrates attention mechanisms into LSTM networks to capture temporal dependency and emphasize relevant features in the input data, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. T extensive experiments are conducted by using practical MEC network data, demonstrating that the proposed approach significantly outperforms traditional LSTM and other baseline models in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the impact of various configurations in the attention mechanism and LSTM on the model performance, providing insights into the optimal settings. The findings of this study contribute to the advancement of latency prediction techniques in deterministic MEC networks, facilitating more efficient and reliable network management.

Do relationships matter?—Director networks and corporate open innovation

This paper examines the impact of a firm's important social relationship, director network, on its open innovation. By matching the director network data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2018 with manually collected data on joint patent applications, we conduct an empirical study and explore the possible influence mechanisms. The results show that the director network has a significant positive impact on corporate open innovation. The conclusion still holds after endogeneity treatment, propensity score matching estimation, and other robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that director networks promote more R&D cooperation among firms than firm-university and firm-research institution R&D cooperation; director networks have a more positive impact on the R&D cooperation activities of non-state-owned firms compared to state-owned firms; moreover, in terms of the type of director networks, independent director networks have a significantly higher positive impact on firms' open innovation than non-independent director networks. It is further found that director networks can facilitate firms' participation in R&D collaborative activities by alleviating firms' financing constraints and reducing transaction costs. This paper enriches the research related to social relations expanding firm boundaries. The findings provide some references for firms to further develop open innovation activities and the construction of innovation systems.

Impact of Corporate Governance and Timeliness of Financial Reporting on the Performance of Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study examines the impact of corporate governance and timeliness of financial reporting on the performance of Nepalese commercial banks. Return on assets and return on equity are selected as the dependent variables. Similarly, board size, leverage, audit committee size, annual general meeting delay, board meeting and independent directors are selected as the independent variables. This study is based on secondary data of 17 commercial banks with 119 observations for the study period from 2015/16 to 2021/22. The data were collected from Banking and Financial statistics published by Nepal Rastra bank and the annual reports of respective banks. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significance and importance of corporate governance on the timeliness of financial reporting in Nepalese commercial banks. The study revealed that board size has a negative impact on return on assets and return on equity. It means that increase in board size leads to decrease in return on assets and return on equity. Likewise, leverage ratio has a positive impact on return on equity. It shows that higher the leverage ratio, higher would be the return on equity. Similarly, leverage ratio has a negative impact on return on assets. It shows that higher the leverage ratio, lower would be the return on assets. Moreover, this study showed that audit committee has a positive impact on return on assets and return on equity. It means that increase in audit committee leads to increase in return on assets and return on equity. Further, annual general meeting has a negative impact on return on equity. It shows that higher the annual general meeting, lower would be the return on equity. In addition, annual general meeting has a positive impact on return on assets. It shows that higher the annual general meeting, higher would be the return on assets. Likewise, board meetings have a positive impact on return on assets and return on equity. It shows that higher the board meetings, higher would be the return on assets and return on equity. Likewise, independent director has a negative impact on return on equity. It indicates that increase in independent director leads to decrease in return on equity. Similarly, independent director has a positive impact on return on assets. It indicates that increase in independent director leads to increase in return on assets.

Corporate Governance and Pay-For-Performance: The Impact on Earnings Management in Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study examines the impact of corporate governance and pay for performance on earnings management in Nepalese commercial banks. Efficiency ratio and basic earning power are selected as the dependent variables. The selected independent variables are board size, tenure of CEO, age of CEO, size of firm, board meetings, compensation, independent directors and foreign ownership. The study is based on secondary data of 17 commercial banks with 102 observations for the study period from 2017/18 to 2022/23. The data were collected from Banking and Financial statistics published by Nepal Rastra bank and the annual reports of the selected commercial banks. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significance and importance of corporate governance and pay for performance on earnings management in Nepalese commercial banks. The study showed that board size has a negative impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that increase in board size leads to decrease in efficiency ratio and basic earning power. Similarly, tenure of CEO has a negative impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that increase in tenure of CEO leads to decrease in efficiency ratio and basic earning power. Likewise, age of CEO has a positive impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that higher age of the CEO in the organization leads to increase in efficiency ratio and basic earning power. Further, size of firm has a positive impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that larger the size of firm, higher would be the efficiency ratio and basic earning power. In addition, board meetings has a positive impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that higher the number of board meetings, higher would be the efficiency ratio and basic earning power. Moreover, compensation has a positive impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that better the compensation facilities, higher would be the efficiency ratio and basic earning power. Likewise, independent directors has a positive impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that increase in independent directors in the board leads to increase in efficiency ratio and basic earning power. Further, foreign ownership has a positive impact on efficiency ratio and basic earning power. It indicates that higher the proportion of foreign ownership, higher would be efficiency ratio and basic earning power.

Corporate Governance and Liquidity Risk of Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study examines the relationship between corporate governance and liquidity risk in Nepalese commercial banks. Cash reserve ratio and credit to deposit ratio are selected as the dependent variables. Similarly, board size, independent directors, female directors, leverage ratio, audit committee and total assets are selected as the independent variables. This study is based on secondary data of 18 commercial banks with 108 observations for the study period from 2016/17 to 2021/22. The data were collected from Banking and Financial statistics published by Nepal Rastra bank and the annual reports of respective banks. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significance and importance of corporate governance on the level of liquidity risk in Nepalese commercial Banks. The study revealed that board size has a positive impact on cash reserve ratio and credit to deposit ratio. It means that increase in board size leads to increase in cash reserve ratio and credit to deposit ratio. Similarly, independent director has a positive impact on cash reserve ratio. It indicates that increase in independent director leads to increase in cash reserve ratio. Likewise, independent director has a negative impact on credit to deposit ratio. It indicates that increase in independent director leads to decrease in credit to deposit ratio. Further, female directors have a negative impact on cash reserve ratio. It shows that higher the female directors, lower would be the cash reserve ratio. In addition, female directors have a positive impact on credit to deposit ratio. It shows that higher the female directors, higher would be the credit to deposit ratio. Likewise, leverage ratio has a positive impact on cash reserve ratio. It shows that higher the leverage ratio, higher would be the cash reserve ratio. Similarly, leverage ratio has a negative impact on credit to deposit ratio. It shows that higher the leverage ratio, lower would be the credit to deposit ratio. Moreover, this study showed audit committee has a negative impact on cash reserve ratio and credit to deposit ratio. It means that increase in audit committee leads to decrease in cash reserve ratio and credit to deposit ratio. Likewise, total assets have a positive impact on cash reserve ratio. It shows that larger the total assets, higher would be the cash reserve ratio. On the other hand, total assets have a negative impact on credit to deposit ratio. It shows that larger the total assets, lower would be the credit to deposit ratio.

Impact of Corporate Governance on Social Responsibility: A Case of Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study examines the impact of corporate governance on social responsibility in the context of Nepalese commercial banks. Legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility are selected as the dependent variables. The selected independent variables are board size, independent directors, audit committee size, female directors, foreign ownership, and government ownership. The study is based on secondary data of 15 commercial banks with 105 observations for the period from 2015/16 to 2021/22. The data were collected from Banking and Financial Statistics published by Nepal Rastra Bank and annual reports of the selected commercial banks. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significance and importance of corporate governance on social responsibility in the context of Nepalese commercial banks. The study showed that board size has a positive impact on legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. It indicates that larger the board size, higher would be the legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. Similarly, independent directors has a positive impact on legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. It indicates that increase in independent directors on the board leads to increase in legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. Likewise, audit committee size has a positive impact on legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. It indicates that increase in audit committee size leads to increase in legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. Further, female directors has a positive impact on legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. It indicates that increase in female directors leads to increase in legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. In addition, foreign ownership has a negative impact on legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. It indicates that higher the foreign ownership, lower would be the legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. Likewise, government ownership has a positive impact on legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility. It indicates that higher the government ownership, higher would be the legal corporate social responsibility and philanthropic corporate social responsibility.

Corporate strategic aggression and environmental investment decisions: Evidence from A-share listed firms

Corporate strategy greatly influences corporate investment activities. This study seeks to better understand the relationship between the level of corporate strategic aggression and environmental investment decisions based on 2011–2020 data. We find that increasing the intensity of strategic aggression effectively increases environmental investment. Moreover, this effect is incentivized by good corporate environmental, social, and governance performance, innovation ability, and management tone manipulation. Although financing constraints may hinder the positive effects of corporate aggression on environmental investment, independent directors and corporate risk promote maximum positive effects. These findings enable companies to identify strategically motivating factors for improving environmental protection.

Integrating resilience and reliability in semiconductor supply chains during disruptions

The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of modern technology, has been crucial in driving globalization and supporting various sectors, from consumer electronics to automotive industries. However, in recent years, the industry has faced substantial challenges threatening its ability to meet the surging demand for semiconductor chips. Disruptions at any point in the supply chain, from raw material sourcing to end-product delivery, can substantially influence the semiconductor ecosystem. The intricate nature of such SCs makes them highly vulnerable to various disruptions, emphasizing the critical need for building resilient and reliable supply chain strategies. This article presents comprehensive research aimed at addressing critical gaps in the understanding and management of resilience and reliability within the semiconductor supply chain (SSC). This study proposes a multi-objective mixed-integer non-linear programming (MO-MINLP) model to configure an SSC while considering reliability and resilience measures. It emphasizes and draws attention to the importance of resilience and reliability in managing SSC disruptions during a pandemic and potential future epidemic outbreak. Exploring the precise breakdown of batch transportation between two sites shows how disruption can affect product flow along the SC. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical example of an SSC, solved using the LINGO solver. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted on the model's parameters to assess the capability and effectiveness of the results from managerial viewpoints.

Implementing Employee Competencies for Geographic Information System (GIS) Website Digitalization

The rapid advancement of technology has become integral to all aspects of modern life. This research examines the relationship between employee competency and the use of a digitalized GIS website for managing customer data, focusing on employees at PDAM Surabaya City. The study involved 100 participants and employed a quantitative descriptive approach, utilizing data collection techniques such as observation, interviews, and surveys through questionnaires. Findings reveal that while employees generally believe their education and technological skills are well-suited to their job roles and support their performance, there are notable issues with the GIS website's reliability and error management. The high consensus on the need for improvements highlights the importance of ongoing maintenance and user support. Statistical analysis confirms that employee competencies significantly impact the effective use of the GIS website, underscoring the importance of skill development in optimizing digital tool utilization and enhancing organizational efficiency. The research implies that improving employee competencies and addressing technical issues with the GIS website are essential for enhancing its utilization and overall organizational performance

Battery state-of-health estimation incorporating model uncertainty based on Bayesian model averaging

Accurately estimating the state-of-health (SOH) of lithium-ion batteries is crucial for efficient, reliable, and safe use. However, the degradation of these batteries involves complex and intricate failure mechanisms that cannot be fully captured by a single model. To tackle this challenge, we propose an SOH estimation method based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), which effectively accounts for both parameter and model uncertainties by combining estimations from different model implementations. It provides both point-value estimates and the probability distribution estimates, delivering results in a fraction of a second. Evaluated on three open-source datasets, the maximum absolute error of SOH estimation is within 0.03, and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score is within 0.015. Compared to optimal individual models, the proposed BMA method reduces the prediction error of point estimates by half to two-thirds. Additionally, the prediction error for probability estimation decreases by an order of magnitude. Moreover, the comparison studies with respect to the Gaussian Process Regression model and the Quantile Regression Forests model demonstrate the applicability and superiority of proposed method. These results highlight the potential of the BMA method to advance battery SOH estimation and facilitate reliable battery management.

Effect of Corporate Governance on Dividend Policy of Nepalese Insurance Companies

This study investigates the effect of corporate governance on dividend policy of Nepalese insurance companies. Dividend payout ratio and dividend per share are the dependent variables. Similarly, board size, female directors, number of independent directors, operating expenses and total asset are selected as independent variables. The study is based on secondary data of 15 Nepalese insurance companies with 102 observations for the period from 2013/14 to 2021/22. The data were collected from the annual reports of respective insurance companies. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significant and importance of different corporate governance variables on the dividend policy of Nepalese insurance companies. This study shows that the board size has a positive impact on dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. It indicates that increase in the number of board members leads to increase in dividend payout ratio and dividend per share in Nepalese insurance companies. Likewise, female director has a positive impact on dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. This implies that higher the number of female directors in the board of a company, higher would be the dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. Similarly, the number of independent directors has a positive impact on dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. It means that the increase in number of independent directors leads to increase in dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. Moreover, operating expenses has a positive impact on dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. This indicates that higher the operating expense ratio, higher would be the dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. In addition, total assets have a positive impact on dividend payout ratio and dividend per share. It indicates that increase in the total assets leads to increase in dividend payout ratio and dividend per share in Nepalese insurance companies.

Corporate Governance Mechanisms and Financial Reporting Quality of Nepalese Commercial Banks

The study examines the effect of corporate governance mechanism on financial reporting quality of Nepalese commercial banks. Audit delay and accruals are selected as the dependent variables. Likewise, board size, audit committee, foreign ownership, board independence, number of board meeting and female board director are selected as the independent variables. The study is based on secondary data of 17 commercial banks with 101 observations for the study period from 2016/17 to 2021/22. The data were collected from Banking and Financial Statistics published by Nepal Rastra Bank and annual report of respective banks. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significance and importance of corporate governance mechanisms on financial reporting quality in the context of Nepalese commercial banks. The study showed that board size has a negative impact on audit delay and accruals. It means that increase in board size leads to decrease in audit delay and accruals. Similarly, female board member has a negative impact on audit delay and accruals. It means that increase in gender board diversity leads to decrease in audit delay and accruals. Moreover, number of independent directors has a negative impact on audit delay and accruals. It shows that increase in number of independent directors leads to decrease in audit delay and accruals. Furthermore, audit committee has a negative impact on audit delay and accruals. It indicates that increase in audit committee size leads to decrease in audit delay and accruals. Likewise, number of board meetings, lower would be the audit delay and accruals. In addition, foreign ownership has a positive impact on audit delay and accruals. It shows that higher the proportion of foreign ownership, higher would be the audit delay and accruals.

Corporate Governance and Organizational Growth: A Case of Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study examines the impact of corporate governance on the organizational growth in the context of Nepalese commercial banks. The selected dependent variables are return on equity and return on assets. Similarly, the selected independent variables are board meeting, board diversity, audit committee size, board interdependence, firm age and board size. The study is based on secondary data of 15 commercial banks with 105 observations for the period from 2015/16 to 2021/22. The data were collected from Banking and Financial Statistics published by Nepal Rastra Bank, publications and websites of Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) and annual reports of the selected commercial banks. The correlation coefficients and regression models are estimated to test the significance and importance of corporate governance on the organizational growth in the context of Nepalese commercial banks. The study showed that board independence has a positive impact on return on equity. It means that higher the number of independent directors on the board, higher would be the return on equity. Similarly, board diversity has a positive effect on return on assets and return on equity. It means that increase in proportion female directors on board leads to increase in return on assets and return on equity. The results of the study also showed that audit committee has a positive impact on return on assets and return on equity. It implies that larger the size of audit committee, higher would be the return on assets and return on equity. However, firm age has a positive impact on return on assets. This shows that increase in firm age leads to increase in return on assets. Similarly, board size has a positive impact on return on assets and return on equity. It implies that larger the board size, higher would be the return on assets and return on equity.

Do Institutional Investors Play a Meaningful Role in the Effective Implementation of Corporate Governance on SDG?

Objective: Corporate governance is a recent development in Kuwaiti financial markets. Corporate governance principles have created several new concepts, such as the independence of directors, the establishment of various committees, the separation of the CEO from the chairman of the board, and other related principles. This article will discuss how institutional investors can play a meaningful role in the effective implementation of Corporate Governance Principles. The primary aim of this research article is to seek a detailed understanding of the Kuwait Corporate Governance Code (KCGC) as it relates to instituting a special code for institutional investors. Method: Solving legal problems and finding the best way to apply special laws can best be highlighted by using a comparative legal analysis. This methodology allows scholars to compare the laws of several countries to find alternative ways of addressing legal issues. This research article will compare legislation in the developed market in the UK to evaluate its potential effectiveness in averting future problems and bringing a better understanding of this subject in Kuwait. Result & Conclusion: The institutional investor plays an influential role in increasing the effectiveness of the principle of commitment to the ‘Comply or Explain’ regime. In the UK, the stewardship code for financial institutions was issued to give them control and responsibility over the application of the governance system. The article suggests that institutional investors should play a more active role in insisting on the application of corporate governance principles. It considers the ‘Comply or Explain’ regime and how it is being used effectively by companies backed by institutional investors. In addition, a new corporate governance code for institutional investors should be developed, similar to the UK Stewardship Code.

Blockchain with secure data transactions and energy trading model over the internet of electric vehicles

The rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs) has introduced significant advancement and evolution in the electricity market. In smart transportation, the EVs have earned more popularity because of its numerous benefits including lower carbon footprints, higher performance, and sophisticated energy trading mechanisms. These potential benefits have resulted in widespread EV adoption across the world. Despite its benefits, energy management remains the biggest challenge in EVs and it is mainly because of the lack of Charging Stations (CSs) near EVs. This creates a demand for an effective, secure and reliable energy management framework for EVs. This study presents a secure data and energy trade paradigm based on Blockchain (BC) in the Internet of EVs (IoEV). BC technology prepares for the high volume of EV integration that serves as the foundation for the next generation, and to assist in developing unique privacy-protected BC-based D-Trading and storage Models. Entities evaluated for the proposed model include Trusted Authority (TA), Vehicles, Smart Meters, Roadside Units (RSU), BC, and Inter-Planetary File System (IPFS). In addition, E-trading involves several phases, including the acquiring E-trading demand requests, E-trading response requests, request matching and token assignment. Moreover, account mapping is performed using a Mayfly Pelican Optimization Algorithm (MPOA), which is created by merging the Mayfly Algorithm (MA) and Pelican Optimization Algorithm (POA). Various security features are used to protect data and energy trade in IoEV, including encryption, hashing, polynomials, and others. The testing results revealed that the MPOA outperformed the state-of-the-art results regarding memory consumption, trading rate, transaction cost, and trading energy volume with values of 4.605 MB, 91%, 0.654, and 90 kW, respectively.

Advanced Deep Learning Techniques for Battery Thermal Management in New Energy Vehicles

In the current era of energy conservation and emission reduction, the development of electric and other new energy vehicles is booming. With their various attributes, lithium batteries have become the ideal power source for new energy vehicles. However, lithium-ion batteries are highly sensitive to temperature changes. Excessive temperatures, either high or low, can lead to abnormal operation of the batteries, posing a threat to the safety of the entire vehicle. Therefore, developing a reliable and efficient Battery Thermal Management System (BTMS) that can monitor battery status and prevent thermal runaway is becoming increasingly important. In recent years, deep learning has gradually become widely applied in various fields as an efficient method, and it has also been applied to some extent in the development of BTMS. In this work, we discuss the basic principles of deep learning and related optimization principles and elaborate on the algorithmic principles, frameworks, and applications of various advanced deep learning methods in BTMS. We also discuss several emerging deep learning algorithms proposed in recent years, their principles, and their feasibility in BTMS applications. Finally, we discuss the obstacles faced by various deep learning algorithms in the development of BTMS and potential directions for development, proposing some ideas for progress. This paper aims to analyze the advanced deep learning technologies commonly used in BTMS and some emerging deep learning technologies and provide new insights into the current combination of deep learning technology in new energy trams to assist the development of BTMS.

Environmental Social And Governance (ESG) And Corporate Governance in ASEAN A Threshold Effects of Corporate Strategy 1

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) constitute 17 sets of goals to be achieved by the end of the said year. The SDGs prioritize problems associated with hunger, inequality, climate change, environmental destruction, peace, and justice for a better global future (United Nations, 2018). This study has two objectives, first, to examine the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and corporate sustainability performance across ASEAN-listed companies. Second, to explore the threshold effect of corporate strategy in a nexus relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and corporate sustainability performance. This study uses 118 companies in ASEAN-5 countries as study’s sample. The period covers from 2011-2020. Both fixed effect model and fixed effect threshold regression are employed to capture linear and nonlinear estimation, respectively. The study validates the female directors and the independent directors on ASEAN boards positively impacts corporate sustainability. Intriguingly, the intervention of corporate strategy will mitigate the low company’s ESG score while strengthening the link between corporate governance and ESG score. This study has practical implications for companies, investors, and regulators looking to in incorporate ESG factors into capital expenditure decisions and reporting.

Prediction of Physico-Chemical Parameters of Surface Waters Using Autoregressive Moving Average Models: A Case Study of Kis-Balaton Water Protection System, Hungary

In this work, the authors provide a case study of time series regression techniques for water quality forecasting. With the constant striving to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), the need for sensitive and reliable water management tools has become critical. Continuous online surface water quality monitoring systems that record time series data about surface water parameters are essential for the supervision of water conditions and proper water management practices. The time series data obtained from these systems can be used to develop mathematical models for the prediction of the temporal evolution of water quality parameters. Using these mathematical models, predictions can be made about future trends in water quality to pinpoint irregular behaviours in measured data and identify the presence of anomalous events. We compared the performance of regression models with different structures for the forecasting of water parameters by utilizing a data set collected from the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System (KBWPS) wetland region of Hungary over an observation period of eleven months as a case study. In our study, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression models with different structures have been compared based on forecasting performance. Using the resulting models, trends of the oxygen saturation, pH level, electrical conductivity, and redox potential of the water could be accurately forecast (validation data residual standard deviation between 0.09 and 20.8) while in the case of turbidity, only averages of future values could be predicted (validation data residual standard deviation of 56.3).