Independent Decision Makers Research Articles

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: Application to influenza vaccination

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Social and Academic Adaptation Styles of Female Students who Immigrated Alone from the Former Soviet Union to Israel

ABSTRACTMigration from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) included a unique group of young women who immigrated alone to Israel in search of opportunities for higher education. Individual migration is a rare phenomenon in the Jewish‐Russian family context, which is characterized by close family ties among members. The content analysis of in‐depth interviews with a group of female immigrant undergraduates revealed two profiles based on their mode of migration: Independent Decision Makers (Profile A) who were determined to integrate rapidly into Israeli society, with far‐reaching concessions in respect of their original culture and of friends from their country of migration; Family Emissaries (Profile B) who wished to preserve their original culture and friends. Their pace of familiarization with Israeli customs was slow and did not constitute a major focus of interest. Profile A respondents used their time at the university for self reflection, celebrating their newly gained insights into their personhood and their independence. Migration “through” the university came to symbolize individuation from their enmeshed family. Profile B informants concentrated on career development at the expense of preoccupation with social adjustment. This group of informants, though more passive observers than active participants in the social aspects of campus life, were also exposed to a new model of university, which served them as a precursor to the diversity of choices awaiting outside the university. The university experience, though more inclusive for Profile A and more limited for Profile B, was positive according to all informants. Regardless of differences in reasons for migration, family attitudes or personality, the desire for quality higher education was the most powerful driving force behind the migration of these single young women from the FSU and its fulfilment helped them cope in the receiving society. Although a neglected area of research, and contrary to the tradition of strong family cohesion, the migration of independent young women from the FSU to Western countries, in search of opportunities for quality higher education, is gaining salience. The lessons learned from the idiosyncratic experiences of participants in this phenomenological study provide valuable insights into issues arising in the course of the intercultural transition of this understudied migrant population and suggest directions for further research.

Demand Theory and General Equilibrium: From Explanation to Introspection, a Journey down the Wrong Road

Gerard Debreu symbolizes the use of a new mathematical apparatus, an apparatus comprehended by most economists only abstractly. Nevertheless, his work has given us an improved intuitive under- standing of the underlying economic relevance. His clarity and ana- lytical rigor, as well as the distinction drawn by him between an eco- nomic theory and its interpretation, have given his work important bearing on the choice of methods and analytical techniques within economic theory on a par with any other living economist. —Introduction of the Nobel laureate at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 1983 The complexity of an economy stands in sharp contrast to the simplicity of a question that must be raised about its operation. Many agents com- pose the economy, and they have to deal with a large number of commod- ities. Each one of those agents makes decisions about the quantity of each one of those commodities that he will produce or consume: the number of variables involved is the product of the number of agents and the number of commodities. Moreover, in this decision-making process the agents act independently of each other, and they are guided by self-interest. Why is high disorder not the result? The agents of an economy are counted in millions, if not billions. The number of commodities is similarly large. The self-interests of the independent decision-makers are sometimes in agreement, sometimes in conflict. Why does one not observe for every commodity a large excess of demand, evidenced, for instance, by lengthy waiting times for orders to be filled, or a large

Students’ choices and moral growth

Can schools encourage children to become independent moral decision-makers, maintaining controlled environments suitable to instructing large numbers of children? Two opposing responses are reviewed: one holds that the road to morality is through discipline and obedience, the other through children's experimentation and choice-making. Circumventing these polarities, I look to distinctions within rules that may help in balancing claims of restraint and freedom. Using a pharmacological analogy, one might, in principle, justify ‘pills’ (discipline) for uncontrollable and/or morally trivial behaviors, but not for intentional behaviors of moral significance where volition matters. However, since we cannot permit children to choose to harm, their agency must be curbed. As a compromise, I suggest that teachers hold extended moral discussions, and involve students in rule-making and sanction-giving.

Game Theory for Wireless Engineers

The application of mathematical analysis to wireless networks has met with limited success, due to the complexity of mobility and traffic models, coupled with the dynamic topology and the unpredictability of link quality that characterize such networks. The ability to model individual, independent decision makers whose actions potentially affect all other decision makers makes game theory particularly attractive to analyze the performance of ad hoc networks.

Using game theory to analyze wireless ad hoc networks

The application of mathematical analysis to the study of wireless ad hoc networks has met with limited success due to the complexity of mobility and traffic models, the dynamic topology, and the unpredictability of link quality that characterize such networks. The ability to model individual, independent decision makers whose actions potentially affect all other decision makers renders game theory particularly attractive to analyze the performance of ad hoc networks. In this article we describe how various interactions in wireless ad hoc networks can be modeled as a game. This allows the analysis of existing protocols and resource management schemes, as well as the design of equilibrium-inducing mechanisms that provide incentives for individual users to behave in socially-constructive ways. We survey the recent literature on game theoretic analysis of ad hoc networks, highlighting its applicability to power control and waveform adaptation, medium access control, routing, and node participation, among others.

Independence and Community: Teaching Midwestern

This article investigates how a Midwestern early childhood teacher’s practice and her views of her practice are culturally constrained. The research is framed by a cultural psychology and draws on an ethnographic and interpretive biographic study of Mary, an experienced first-grade teacher. We explore Mary’s practice through four central themes: (a) raising independent decision makers, (b) developing self-motivated lifelong learners, (c) providing a basis for a successful life, and (d) building community. We explore how each theme is informed by a folk psychology that reflects Mary’s cultural beliefs and values. We conclude with implications for early childhood practice and research

Cardiac Revascularization—a need for Independent Decision-Makers

Cardiac Revascularization—a need for Independent Decision-Makers

Migration of elderly households in Canada, 1991–1996: determinants and differences

AbstractThe elderly, already a significant component of internal migration in Canada, will be an increasingly important element of future internal migration. Using census data on households, the flows and determinants of elderly migration are examined and compared with younger groups. Few migrate as individuals, most moves are multiple‐person moves, and the household, particularly the family, is the appropriate unit of analysis. In 1996 over 88% of those who migrated in the previous five years were members of households of two or more persons. The elderly are compared with the near‐elderly and those likely to be in the labour force, using the age of the primary household maintainer, a person named by each household, to classify households. The elderly are households with a primary household maintainer 65 years of age or over, the near‐elderly have a primary household maintainer of 55 to 64 years, and independent decision‐makers, the major component of the labour force, have a primary household maintainer aged 25 to 54. Significant differences are found between the groups. The elderly have a lower rate of migration and their migration determinants and destinations are less driven by employment considerations. While education, for example, is a consistently‐found determinant of migration for those in the labour force, it is much less significant for the elderly. The human capital model of migration is not applicable to the elderly. For couples both the characteristics of the primary household maintainer and the characteristics of the spouse or common‐law partner are determinants of the couple's migration, underlining the importance of modelling migration as a household move. Single‐person households often, but not always, show results similar to those for couples. When male and female single‐person households are compared, migration determinants usually have a stronger effect on females then on males. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Promoting or impeding empowerment? Nurses' assessments of their work environment.

This article reports the results of a quantitative study of individual nurses' views concerning factors promoting or impeding empowerment in healthcare organizations. Changes in healthcare have lead to the formation of ever larger units, reduced resources, and an increasing demand for efficiency. Besides having extensive professional knowledge, personnel are expected to be independent decision-makers engaged in continuous development of both themselves and their work. The leadership must be goal-directed, providing support and opportunities to the personnel. Concerns exist as to how to safeguard the attractiveness of the healthcare field in a possible future competition for potential workers and students. The concept used as theoretical framework is empowerment, which has widely been found useful not only in developing patient care but also in education and personnel management. Data (n = 416) were collected by a questionnaire based on five categories obtained in an earlier qualitative study. Factors that prevented empowerment included authoritarian leadership, poor access to information, and short working periods. Factors found to increase empowerment were job satisfaction, career consciousness, further training, and commitment. Further research into the effects of personnel governance and organizational changes upon empowerment seems indicated.

An Improved Branch & Bound Method for the Uncapacitated Competitive Location Problem

In this paper, the problem of locating new facilities in a competitive environment is considered. The problem is formulated as the firm expected profit maximization and a set of nodes is selected in a graph representing the geographical zone. Profit depends on fixed and deterministic location costs and, since customers are independent decision-makers, on the expected market share. The problem is an instance of nonlinear integer programming, because the objective function is concave and submodular. Due to this complexity a branch & bound method is developed for solving small size problems (that is, when the number of nodes is less than 50), while a heuristic is necessary for larger problems. The branch & bound is called data-correcting method, while the approximate solutions are obtained using the heuristic-concentration method.

Flexible guideline-based patient careflow systems

Workflow Management Systems integrate domain and organisational knowledge to support business processes. When applied to the medical environment, they can be termed “Careflow Management Systems”, and may be used to manage care delivery by enhancing co-operation among healthcare professionals. This paper focuses on care delivery based on clinical practice guidelines. Healthcare organisations are very different from industrial or commercial companies: their main goal is not profit, but maintaining and improving the health of the public. Therefore, outcomes are difficult to measure. Firstly, physicians, while playing a variety of roles, are quite independent decision-makers; secondly, the object of the process, i.e. the patient, may be involved in choosing treatment options, and may be treated by different institutions. For these reasons, the standard functionality of typical Workflow Management Systems must be strongly enhanced in order to cope with healthcare delivery needs. A major issue is accounting for exceptions. In most non-clinical settings this is not a problem because processes are very well defined and can often be easily controlled by some higher authority. As explained above, this does not happen in healthcare organisations. Responsibilities are widely shared, and health care professionals may be non-compliant with guidelines for a variety of reasons. The paper presents a classification of possible exceptions, and shows how the sequence of tasks described by a guideline may be altered, at the implementation level, in order to meet actual user needs, while maintaining guideline intentions as much as possible. A terminology server is also exploited towards this end. This work illustrates a prototype of a Careflow Management System based on an international guideline for ischemic stroke treatment, developed by the American Heart Association.

An experimental comparison of conservative versus optimal collision avoidance warning system thresholds

In the distributed signal detection theoretic (DSDT) model, the human operator and the warning mechanism are independent decision makers who work together as a team. The DSDT demonstrates that the optimal warning threshold, in general, differs from the signal detection theoretic (SDT) threshold, which assumes a single decision maker. This prediction was tested in an experiment where drivers received monetary rewards for making safe passing decisions on a driving simulator. The experiment focused on evaluating the quality of the decision making of the drivers, and not on perceptual issues. A collision avoidance system provided a warning when the probability of an inadequate overtaking gap exceeded a threshold. Three thresholds were tested. The control threshold resulted in no detections or false alarms. The DSDT threshold resulted in some misses but no false alarms. The SDT threshold resulted in no misses but frequent false alarms. As predicted, (1) drivers performed the best when the warning system used the DSDT threshold, and (2) use of the SDT threshold improved performance over the control threshold, even though four of the 10 drivers occasionally ignored the warning and made risky passing attempts in the SDT conditions, possibly because of earlier false alarms. These findings support the conclusion that the DSDT model is a useful, quantitative tool that should be used by warning designers.

Editorial Objectives Supply Chain Management

It is tempting to say that, for a very long time, supply chain management has been a central topic in the field of management science and operations management. In fact, however, it has evolved from the seminal work done in the 1960s on multiechelon inventory models to recent studies of various mechanisms for coordinating supply chain decisions. In this evolution, one sees a clear shift from studying centralized planning models, in which a central planner makes all the decisions to optimize a systemwide objective, to focusing on decentralized systems with independent decision makers. This is no trival change, for it is one step closer to many real life situations, it has brought about another layer of complexity, and it often requires the use of new analytical tools. The department of supply chain management was created to recognize, emphasize, and encourage this change, and it will continue to do so. Organizing supply chain activities is about determining who does what (in the case of managers, who decides what), who knows what, and the economic incentives motivating supply chain members. This suggests that the management of supply chains can be addressed along three dimensions: allocation of decision rights, information elicitation and sharing, and incentive alignment. This framework matches what we observe in practice: vendor-managed inventory is a supply chain partnership to reallocate stocking decision rights; the creation of corporate communication networks is an example of information sharing; and the myriad of contracts signed among supply chain partners are attempts to align incentives. Moreover, the above three dimensions are likely to characterize the research frontier in supply chain management for the years to come. The Department of Supply Chain Management welcomes papers that are motivated by real-world operations problems and contribute to the understanding of supply chain management issues. The contributions can be methodological, conceptual, empirical, application-oriented, etc. The department especially welcomes papers that present novel models that may open up new directions of research. Needless to say, all submitted manuscripts must follow the guidelines of Management Science, and they will be rigorously refereed according to the normal standards of the journal. Please send four copies of the paper to the departmental editor of supply chain management at the address printed above. The associate editors for the department are: Sven Axsater, Lund University Gerard P. Cachon, University of Pennsylvania Gary Eppen, University of Chicago Stephen C. Graves, MIT Albert Y. Ha, Yale University Martin A. Lariviere, Northwestern University Evan L. Porteus, Stanford University Ananth Raman, Harvard University Kaj Rosling, Lund University Jeannette Song, University of California, Irvine Sridhar Tayur, Carnegie Mellon University Seungjin Whang, Stanford University

Antitrust Immunity, the First Amendment and Settlements: Defining the Boundaries of the Right to Petition

Specifically, this Article examines whether settlement agreements and consent decrees resulting from what would otherwise be immunized litigation are protected from antitrust scrutiny and liability under Noerr. In order to conduct this analysis, this Article develops a methodology for determining immunity by focusing the immunity examination upon the means used to petition government and the source of the alleged injuries. Ultimately, private conduct is immune from antitrust scrutiny when it represents a valid attempt to persuade an independent governmental decision-maker in an effort to solicit government action, and the alleged injuries result from that persuasive effort. The validity of any effort depends upon the forum in which the petitioning is conducted without reference to antitrust. By focusing upon the means used to petition government, this analysis ensures that Noerr immunity protects the people's right to petition their government for the redress of grievances without unnecessarily limiting the protection afforded by the antitrust laws.

Coordination as a Criterion for Economic “Goodness”

Welfare economics requires a criterion for economic “goodness” in regard to a society. Unlike conventional criteria, “coordination” (among independent decisionmakers) does not violate methodological individualism. The coordination criterion can be objectively deployed to judge events or policies, referring only to the given preference rankings of relevant individuals, given their initial positions. An important variant refers not to the attained (or unattained) state of achieved coordination, but to the ability of events or policies to affect the process through which a better-coordinated state may be approached. Several implications of the coordination criterion are explored.

Farmers' knowledge and perception of cotton insect pest problems in Cote d'Ivoire

This study investigated cotton farmers' knowledge and perception ofarthropod pests. A survey of79 farmers, randomly selected over the cotton growing area of Cote d'Ivoire, revealed a wide range of ages (20 - 73 years) among cotton farmers; 25% were less than 30 years old. Most farmers were illiterate as 74% had notattended school. Mostof the pests which were well known to a high proportion of farmers either were those whose feeding caused very obvious effects ( Syllepte derogata, Heliothis armigera, Polyphagotarsonemus latus and Dysdercus volkeri ), or those found frequently in their fields ( Aphis gossypii, Earias insulana, Anomis flava, Bemisia tabaci ). Itis importantto improve farmers' pest management capabilities by providing them with field diagnostic tools and educational materials along with other relevant facilities. This can be achieved through rural schools appropriate for helping cotton farmers to acquire basic knowledge of key concepts of pest control, and to enable the most receptive farmers to reach the level of independent decision-makers.

Career choice of Vietnamese Australian Tertiary Students

The process of career choice undertaken by Australian tertiary students from Vietnamese-speaking backgrounds is investigated and findings are compared to related research. The purpose was to provide an informed knowledge base for interventions that might affect the course participation and employment rates of these students. The survey results revealed that the process was culturally determined in some areas, but showed evidence of an individualistic awareness of self as independent decision-makers which was not described in the literature consulted.

What's the Problem? An Introduction to Problem Structuring Methods

OR's traditional problem-solving techniques offer remarkably little assistance in deciding what the problem is. New problem structuring methods (PSMs) provide decision makers with systematic help in identifying an agreed framework for their problem. The result is either a well-defined project that can be addressed using traditional OR methods, or a clarification of the situation that enables those responsible to agree on a course of action. In principle, PSMs can provide analysts with greater access to strategic problems—those engaging multiple relatively independent decision makers. PSMs' transparent methods of representation can capture differing perceptions of the situation, to help generate a consensus or to facilitate negotiations.

On the rationality of mutually immiserating coercion

The pursuit of relative advantage in a setting where one person has power over another may yield perfectly rational decisions by the person in power which reduce the wealth of all affected parties, including the person in power. This contrasts with decisions by independent egoistic decision makers who, in a similar circumstances, will not pursue transfers when they are known to cost more to obtain than would be realized. Utility functions that include relative wealth or position as arguments have the property that utility increases as relative wealth increases. Consequently mutually immiserating policies may be rationally undertaken if they yield sufficient relative advantage to offset absolute wealth reductions.