Incumbent Party Research Articles

Court-Packing and Democratic Erosion

When faced with an incumbent party that is deliberately tilting the electoral and institutional playing field, under what conditions should small-d democracy advocates respond with hardball tactics such as Court-packing? This paper surveys the comparative literature on democratic erosion for key lessons regarding the role of courts in polities where democratic erosion is underway. The literature suggests that independent courts may sometimes operate as guardrails of democracy, but that once captured by anti-system parties, courts may also serve as effective agents of democratic erosion. The paper then draws on the history of Court-packing in the United States in an effort to confirm and sharpen these lessons. The key takeaway is that we should distinguish between constitutional hardball in service of democratic erosion and constitutional hardball in service of democratic preservation or renewal. In this light, given the role played by the current Supreme Court in ongoing processes of democratic backsliding, Democratic Court-expansion, combined with institutional reform of the judicial selection process, may be the least-bad option for restoring the Court’s role as democratic guardrail.

Voting after a Major Flood: Is There a Link between Democratic Experience and Retrospective Voting?

We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters’ democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 0.9 to 2.5 percentage points increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.

Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis

Abstract We examine the relationship between election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, and financial market uncertainty in a prediction-market analysis, covering seven US presidential election campaigns. We argue theoretically that changes in the incumbent party re-election probability should be a key driver of changes in policy uncertainty. Consistent with this theory, we find that a large portion of changes in financial uncertainty in the final stages of election campaign seasons is explained by changes in the probability of the incumbent party getting re-elected. Our findings suggest that the incumbent-party election probability, derived from prediction markets, is an important measure of economic policy uncertainty in the days leading up to US elections.

The Political Business Cycle in Asian Countries

The political business cycle (PBC) theory argues that an incumbent party tends to use government resources to impress voters, so government spending always rises before but declines after an election. Many PBC studies have been done for an individual country or cross-countries, but the results are conflicting. The purpose of this paper is to explore possible fluctuating patterns of government spending in response to political elections in Asian countries because of a lack of studies across this region. In this study, data on 219 elections in 26 countries from 1990 to 2014 are collected. There are two main findings: firstly, government spending falls the year after elections in Asian countries; secondly, the degree of democracy and transparency have impacts on government spending in Asian countries.

3G Internet and Confidence in Government

How does mobile broadband internet affect approval of government? Using surveys of 840,537 individuals from 2,232 subnational regions in 116 countries in 2008-2017 from the Gallup World Poll and the global expansion of third generation (3G) mobile networks, we show that an increase in mobile broadband internet access reduces government approval. This effect is present only when the internet is not censored and is stronger when traditional media is censored. This effect is reversed in the few countries with the lowest corruption. 3G helps expose actual corruption in government: revelations of the Panama Papers and corruption incidents translate into higher perceptions of corruption in regions covered by 3G networks. The disillusionment of voters in governments had electoral implications: In Europe, the expansion of mobile broadband internet led to a decrease in the vote shares of incumbent parties and an increase in the vote shares of the antiestablishment populist opposition. The vote shares of the nonpopulist opposition were unaffected by the expansion of 3G networks.

Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from U.S. Presidential Elections

Despite the economic importance of the U.S. stock market, there is strikingly little evidence of its impact on elections. Using county-level variation in stock market participation, we document a causal impact of market returns on election outcomes. High-participation counties are more likely to vote for the incumbent party when the market has performed well relative to low-participation counties. The effect is weaker in Republican-leaning counties and more politically active counties, and comes mostly through the intensive margin rather than affecting turnout. Our findings provide evidence of a novel channel through which stock market fluctuations could be transmitted into the real economy.

Contesting EU authority in the name of European identity: the new clothes of the sovereignty discourse in Central Europe

ABSTRACTIn recent years, government officials in Hungary, Poland and Austria have contested the authority of the EU in areas linked to core state powers, such as democracy and the rule of law and migrations. Analyzing the discursive strategies displayed by conservative and/or right-wing governments in these countries, the article shows how the old conflict line over sovereignty that has traditionally shaped the integration process – supranational vs domestic sovereignty – is being complemented by a new discourse which consists in disparaging EU ‘interference’ in the very name of European values and a common European identity, defined in opposition to multiculturalism and political liberalism. Pioneered by Viktor Orban, this discourse has been circulating among other Central European heads of government and incumbent parties’ officials in the wake of the refugee ‘crisis’, which opened up a discursive opportunity structure for its diffusion.

European ruling parties’ electoral strategies and overseas enfranchisement policies

AbstractEmigrants’ ideologies and partisan attitudes may diverge from other voters’: overseas voters are ideologically self‐selected, receive distinctive information about campaigns and have experiences abroad that are likely to shape their political views. Parties, anticipating these emigrant attitudes, can manipulate overseas voting availability to give the vote primarily to their own supporters. Alternatively, parties may expect newly enfranchised voters to provide electoral support in gratitude for the right to vote. To distinguish these separate processes, this project undertakes a case study of Turkey to trace a ruling party's strategic expectations as it makes overseas‐enfranchisement decisions. To see how generalisable these results are, the study further extends to a statistical analysis of differences in vote choice between voters at home and abroad across all 23 European countries that report overseas votes separately, using an original dataset encompassing 121 elections. Both the case study and the statistical analysis suggest that emigrant‐enfranchising parties tend to garner overseas voters’ support in a lasting way. This suggests that overseas enfranchisement most often appears to involve incumbent parties (correctly) expecting long‐term ideological compatibility with their overseas nationals, not simply exchanging the franchise for short‐term, transactional support.

Factors Behind the UK EU Referendum 2016: A Multivariate and Path Analysis

The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, also known as the EU referendum and the Brexit referendum, took place on 23 June 2016. delivered a new sort of political division. Voters were divided, more or less fifty/fifty (52%, 48%),but not on traditional party lines but rather on a new dimension one of social conservatism versus social liberalism. It has been suggested that this new division is even more salient than the traditional Left - Right Tory - Labour one and one which may presage a reorientation in UK politics, given that the major incumbent parties Labour and Tory are similarly internally split. A remarkable fact about this new dimension is that its persistence equals its salience Subsequent polling evidence, the average of monthly polls plotted in the chart below show the split has changed little in the interim since 2016. Later polling continues to reflect this such that parties are starting to align themselves in terms of this split The new Brexit party (social conservative, Leave) and the Liberal Democrats (social liberal, Remain). Both of these parties have seen their support surge. Much has been written about the background to the emergence of this new phenomenon and this won’t be re-explored here. The focus rather is on the demographics and social factors which are possible causes of this emergence. The analysis is based upon two data sets; the EU referendum voting results and The Legatum UK prosperity index for 2016, which has concepts and indicators for health, sense of security, social capital as well as education, business friendliness and economic prosperity. Both of these data sets show analyses at the Local Authority level which permits the assessment of vote causes at a quite granular level.

Economic governance: Does it make or break a dominant party equilibrium? The case of India

Why do voters re-elect the same party for prolonged periods of time even when there are reasonable alternatives available? When and why do they stop doing so? Based on a quantitative analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014, we test the significance of ‘economic governance’ for the continuance and fall of one-party dominance. With data from India we show that, under a command economy paradigm, a national incumbent party sustains its dominance by playing politics of patronage, but in a marketized economy, state governments gain considerable scope in managing their economic affairs. This enables different state parties to create a stable pattern of support in states. As state-level effects cease to aggregate at the national level, the party system fragments. However, such an aggregation can re-emerge if a single party consistently delivers in the states which it governs.

Political corruption and capture of the minority

AbstractThis article presents a model of political corruption in which a briber can choose either to bribe only the incumbent party or to capture also the opposition party to sterilize its monitoring role. The analysis also explores interparty collusion, media independence, and political contestability. The model suggests that policies aiming to strengthen the role of minorities can produce ambiguous effects as they may induce bribers' avoidance behavior. Reputational sanctions appear to be less effective than criminal ones, although political contestability increases their deterrence effect. Paradoxically, harsh criminal sanctions may induce tacit collusion because minorities highly regard their outcomes once in power.

Backing the Incumbent in Difficult Times: The Electoral Impact of Wildfires

How do voters react to shocks that are outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral impact of wildfires in Spain in the period 1983-2014. This context allows us to study (a) the effects of fires at different locations and times, as opposed to a specific disaster; (b) the heterogeneous effects by time relative to election day; and (c) the effects on elections for all levels of government. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that an accidental fire up to 9 months ahead of a municipal election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by up to 8 percentage points, whereas a fire earlier in the term does not affect the election results. In addition, fires have no effect on regional or national elections. We discuss the possible mechanisms behind the results in light of the main theories on electoral accountability.

Do Citizens Enforce Accountability for Public Goods Provision? Evidence from India’s Rural Roads Program

While a vast literature examines the prevalence of ethnic voting and clientelism in low-income contexts, empirical tests of whether elections are being used to hold politicians accountable for public goods provision are few. Leveraging a rare exogenous variation in the World's largest rural roads program, a high visibility Indian program that is unprecedented in using informational devices to raise citizens' awareness about roads provision, this paper examines this question at a scale than has previously been possible. With an original dataset of 180,000 rural roads provided across half a million Indian villages aggregated to various electoral levels, national, state and polling booth, over last 20 years, I find that roads provision fails to boost electoral support for the incumbent party. Exploiting subnational variation in program implementation and Indian politics, I show that quality or corruption concerns, attribution errors, timing of provision or variation in political competition, media access or literacy, cannot explain these results. The findings have implications for democratic governance and suggest that information constraints are unlikely to be a barrier to accountability in low-income contexts.

A Crisis for Both Parties

A Crisis for Both Parties

The Political Economy of Health Epidemics: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak

This paper investigates whether political incentives affect the government’s response during a health epidemic and the subsequent effects on citizens’ voting behavior. Leveraging novel data, I study this question in the context of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. The national incumbent government appropriately prioritized the allocation of resources to villages affected by the epidemic. By building a spatiotemporal epidemiological model that estimates the ex-ante optimal allocation of relief efforts, there is also evidence that resources were misallocated toward electoral swing villages. Instead, no resources were diverted toward core supporters or co-ethnic villages. Voters, in turn, reacted by rewarding the national incumbent party in areas where additional resources were misallocated.

Twitter as a tool for agenda building in election campaigns? The case of Austria

During the 2017 Austrian national election campaign, political parties that had traditionally focused on press releases and conferences to influence the media’s agenda made extensive use of Twitter for the very first time. This study examines the impact of the parties’ Twitter campaigns on the substantive issue agendas of five leading legacy media outlets. Compared with the impact of parties’ news releases, the results show that, on an aggregated level, Twitter feeds significantly increase the parties’ agenda-building power, but are not influenced by the media agenda – with the exception of the personal accounts of the top candidates (particularly the new leader of the winning conservative party), who follow the media agenda to a significant extent. On an individual level, incumbent parties are the most successful in using Twitter, while small parties suffer from interactions with other parties in communicating their issue priorities (which is in line with the ‘normalisation thesis’).

Attitude Changes towards Immigrants in the Turbulent Years of the 'Migrant Crisis' and Anti-Immigrant Campaign in Hungary

The paper discusses explanations for attitudes towards immigrants before and after the start of the ‘migrant crisis’. Though the crisis caused changes in peoples’ attitudes all over Europe, the Hungarian case is special due to the Hungarian government’s intensive anti-immigration campaign. To explain the circumstances people encountered during the crisis and the campaign, we first prove that moral panic abounded in society. Then, we show the background effects which affected the emergence of attitudes towards immigration in a political context. In the second part of the paper, we introduce a path model to explain the presumed effect of migration. We analyze this model with regard to the different political party preference groups, assuming that the government’s anti-immigration campaign affected people’s opinions and that people with different party preferences had different attitudes towards immigration: namely, those who were sympathetic to the incumbent party had more negative attitudes towards immigration. This effect has two interpretations. The first is that those who sympathized with the incumbent party were more sensitive to its messages. The other is that those who resonated more with the campaign changed their party preference to favour Fidesz, but those who resonated less with the campaign but used to be sympathizers of Fidesz do not support them anymore. The models show that before the migrant crisis there were only slight differences between political preference groups regarding how anti-migrant attitudes arose. However, after the start of the crisis (and the campaign), diverse processes could be identified in the different political groups, especially in the case of Fidesz sympathizers.

Pitting prime minister cues with party cues in a multiparty system: a survey experiment in Japan

AbstractMotivated by a previous finding that single-party cues have no effect in Japan and by the increasing ‘presidentialization’ of Japanese politics, the present study examined whether the use of prime minister cues in place of single-party cues helps Japanese voters form policy preferences. In addition, to probe the effect of party cues that are unique to multiparty systems, the effect of multiple-party cues, which indicate that a policy is supported by multiple rather than single ideologically distinct parties, was investigated. The results of a survey experiment showed that while prime minister cues are not utilized by the supporters of incumbent parties, the supporters of opposition parties demonstrated significantly reduced approval of a policy when there was an indication that the prime minister supported it. The effect of prime minister cues on opposition supporters was stronger than that of Liberal Democratic Party cues, suggesting that leader cues are effective in Japan. Furthermore, a cue indicating that ideologically distinct parties support a policy enhances approval for that policy among the public, which suggests that multiple-party rather than single-party cues are informative in multiparty systems. Theoretical implications are discussed.

Engineering popular support for long-ruling parties: the role of clientelism

AbstractIn electorally contested regimes, the incumbent party often uses clientelist exchanges to stay in power long after its underlying electoral support has evaporated. Existing studies failed to examine how the role of clientelism changes with the increasing tenure of the incumbent party. Combining data from the Afrobarometer project and information about partisan turnover, this article shows that the longer a party has remained in power, the more clientelist exchanges in the form of club goods and patronage will serve to bolster popular support for the ruling party. This is mainly because lengthy party duration facilitates the politicization of bureaucracy and other state resources essential for clientelist exchanges. Understanding the evolving role of clientelism under electoral contestation has profound implications for the study of phenomena such as dominant-party rule and democratic erosion.

Negativity and Political Debates: The 2014 National and Provincial Elections in South Africa

ABSTRACTThis article provides an examination of the extent to which the use of negative campaigning is determined by the proximity to power of a political party. Specifically, this article measures the extent to which opposition political parties generate negative messages to a greater extent than incumbent parties during election debates in South Africa. The popular assumption regarding negative campaigning in the United States and Western Europe is examined in the South African context. The study reveals the extent to which the determinants of negative campaigning can be observed during publicly broadcast election debates during the 2014 national elections in South Africa. The study reveals and supports the assumptions regarding the use of negative campaigning during elections. It also applies a qualitative content analysis to understand the extent to which opposition parties use negative campaigning to a greater extent than incumbent parties.