Incumbent Candidates Research Articles

LEGAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE ENFORCEMENT OF THE NEUTRALITY VIOLATION OF THE STATE CIVIL APPARATUS (ASN) IN SIMULTANEOUS REGIONAL HEAD ELECTIONS (CASE STUDY IN SRAGEN REGENCY)

<p><em>The State Civil Apparatus (ASN) role is crucial to carry out government affairs within the framework of achieving national goals. In carrying out these duties as a state apparatus, they must provide services to the community in a professional, honest, fair, and equitable manner in carrying out state, government, and development tasks.</em><em> ASN must be neutral from the influence of all political groups and parties and not discriminate in providing services to the community. In 2015, Sragen Regency participated in celebrating the democratic party, namely the simultaneous election of regional heads and deputy regional heads on December 9, 2015. The Panwaslu (Election Supervisory Committee) of Sragen Regency found and received reports that many ASNs were not neutral. The Panwaslu report reached KASN, and several cases were left without follow-up handling and seemed to evaporate. This study uses qualitative research methods to obtain facts regarding the problem of ASN neutrality in the Sragen Regency in the 2015 simultaneous regional elections. The unit of analysis in this research is the Panwaslu of Sragen Regency and the Education and Training Personnel Agency (BKPP) of Sragen Regency. Data collection techniques used are in-depth interviews and documentation to complete the data in this study. ASN violations occurred before the campaign period and during the campaign period. The number of ASN is not neutral by attending campaigns, other stage activities, and providing campaign materials using state facilities such as office buildings and ASN official vehicles. Of course, the involvement and alignment of ASN in the 2015 Regional Head Elections is due to the incumbent candidate. The Sragen Regency Government, namely the Sragen Regent, should give sanctions or disciplinary punishments to ASN who are not neutral in following the existing laws and regulations. The Sragen Regent should be more firm in responding to this non-neutral ASN case. Legal arrangements are needed to handle ASN Neutrality violations in the General Election and Simultaneous Regional Head Elections.</em></p>

Relasi Birokrat dan Politisi Dalam Pilkada Gubernur Sumatera Barat Tahun 2020

In electoral politics, the relationship between bureaucrats and politicians is increasingly obvious because the interests between the two meets at one point, namely power. As a result, ASN, which should be neutral in elections and elections, is drawn into the vortex of political currents, especially in the implementation of the Pilkada which is in direct contact with the interests of the bureaucrats and ASN. This phenomenon occurs in almost all of Indonesia during the Pilkada, especially since the candidate who is advancing is the incumbent candidate. This practice also occurred in the 2020 West Sumatra gubernatorial election. Bureaucrats became one of the supporters and loyalists (brokers) of the candidates who came forward. One of the pairs of candidates who have a lot of contact with these bureaucrats is the pair Mahyeldi-Audy. One of them is the appointment of three Padang City Government officials to become officials in the West Sumatra Provincial Government, although they have gone through the screening process, there are still allegations of remuneration for the contributions of the three bureaucrats in winning Mahyeldi-Audy. To analyze the problems above, the method used is a qualitative approach and the type of research used is a literature review. In this study, it is explained that in the process of selecting the governor, bureaucrats and PKS collaborate in collecting votes according to their respective duties. This collaboration was one of the decisive factors for Mahyeldi and PKS's victory in the West Sumatra gubernatorial election. the practice of political brokers and pig-barrel politics explains the relationship between bureaucrats and politicians. Bureaucrats who have a strong social network engine are able to get votes in their respective environments, especially those senior bureaucrats are community leaders who have supporters. Coupled with pragmatic politics that prioritizes money politics in elections, making these bureaucrats and politicians a force in the winning process.

China-related Fake News in the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Elections

The election is a domestic political event, but the campaign process is not limited by national territory. This study analyses fake news related to China during the campaign period of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election. The findings of this study show that China-related fake news was used to attack both presidential candidates, but the incumbent candidate experienced more fake news attacks in terms of number than his opponent. The content of the fake news focused on a few key issues: economic domination, foreign workers, intervention in domestic politics, infiltration of the election, and communism. Those issues also represent part of the Indonesian perception of China’s economy, political sovereignty, and ideological threat. The China-related fake news during the presidential election covered both domestic and international relations. Domestically, it targeted voters to influence the election results, and internationally, it made use of information about the perception of Indonesia-China relations. Although the fake news focused on domestic politics, it has the potential to impact state-to-state relations.

How do markets react to political elections during periods of insecurity and governance crises? Evidence from an African emerging democracy

PurposeThis paper operationalizes insecurity and governance crises to study their effects on stock market response to two political events in Nigeria – the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections.Design/methodology/approachAn event study was used to capture the market responses. Abnormal returns at the aggregate and sectoral levels were measured over several time windows before and after the respective election results were announced.FindingsThe market reacted strongly positively to a change in presidency from an incumbent to an opposition party candidate in the 2015 election but weakly positively, at best, to the re-election of the incumbent candidate in the 2019 election. In addition, banking stocks exhibited greater sensitivity to these events than oil and gas stocks.Research limitations/implicationsThere may be peculiarities with the Nigerian case and with the two elections analyzed. Therefore, future research could focus on understanding the extent to which the results generalize to the broader sub-Saharan context and other regions that face similar governance challenges.Practical implicationsUnderstanding that markets may have a different perception towards incumbent versus opposition candidate electoral victories during periods of insecurity and governance crisis is important for investors, policymakers, researchers and the wider society.Originality/valuePast empirical studies on political events and stock returns in Sub-Saharan Africa contexts such as Nigeria ignore shifts in voter mood and produce contradictory findings. This paper helps to resolve some of these contradictions by providing insight into how the markets can have a different perception towards incumbent and opposition candidate electoral victories during periods of insecurity and governance crisis.

Ideological and partisan biases in ratings of candidate quality in U.S. House elections

AbstractObjectiveThis article explores whether voters evaluate candidates’ ideology, partisanship, and quality independently or exhibit behavior consistent with motivating reasoning, rating co‐partisans and candidates ideologically similar to themselves as more competent.MethodsUsing a survey of voters and experts from 2010 U.S. House elections, I estimate a model predicting an individual's rating of incumbent candidate competence for office and challenger candidate competence for office.ResultsIndividuals ideologically distant from a candidate rate the candidate as less competent, yet rate co‐partisan candidates as more competent. For incumbents, opposing partisanship amplifies the negative effect of ideological distance on candidate quality ratings, and shared partisanship mitigates the negative effect of ideological distance.ConclusionOnly incumbents rated as the most competent can overcome the ideological and partisan biases of voters. Consistent with theories of affective polarization, these results imply that polarization runs deeper than partisan or ideological differences–it is personal.

When Politics and Religion Become Disaster: An Annual Mapping of Hoax in Indonesia

Since 2016, hoax has been massively circulated in Indonesia, due to low literacy rates and poor detection habit of disinformation among the people. Approaching general elections in April 2019, political hoax dominated in the scene. A content analysis toward 997 hoaxes in 2018 has found that half of hoaxes circulated among society was political hoaxes (49.94%), followed by hoaxes on religious themes (11.94%). Political hoaxes mixed with religion, racism, and any other topic has been creating multiplying effect that threaten democracy. The mapping toward hoaxes during 2018 showed how such possibility might appear due to political hoaxes that framed the issue or candidates of presidential election based on fictitious data or made-up stories. Both candidates were subjected to hoax. But deeper investigation revealed that hoaxes targeted Jokowi as the incumbent candidate surpassed the number of hoaxes toward Prabowo as Jokowi’s counterpart. Hoax to Jokowi was associated with Communist Party, and the arrival of ten thousands Chinese migrant work to replace native workers. Hoax toward Prabowo mainly concerned of gay-lesbian movement. Both candidates presidential election also became the target of religion hoax. Hoax to Jokowi concerned with the abolition of Islamic Boarding School, whereas hoax toward Prabowo targeted his manner that deemed inappropriate for religious community. Overall, serious disinformation was detected. This mapping also showed that over time, hoaxes become more sophisticated, complex and dfficult to encounter. Neither accident nor prank, hoax is an effort by design to disturb harmony and stability in the country. 
 Keywords: hoax, political, religion, mapping 2018

The Effect of Political Donation on Election Outcomes: Evidence from Taiwan Legislative Elections

While past studies have attempted to understand the factors influencing the donation amount received by candidates, little scholarly attention has been paid to the consequences of political donation. Using the candidate-level data from three legislative elections in Taiwan from 2008 to 2016, this study examines the relationship between political donation and candidates’ election outcomes. The empirical findings demonstrate that political donation exerts a significant positive effect on candidates’ election outcomes. Specifically, candidates who receive more campaign contributions are more likely to get a high vote share and elected. However, different sources of political donations have different effects on election outcomes and donation from individuals plays a more important role among four sources of political donations. Furthermore, this study also finds that political donation has a larger impact on non-incumbent candidates’ election outcomes than that of incumbent candidates. Overall, the findings suggest that money matters for candidates’ electoral fate, especially for challengers. Given the importance of political donation in election outcomes, the government should enhance transparency of campaign contributions to ensure fair electoral competition.

Unveiling the Peril of Protest Votes: An Enlightenment to Guide Political Behavior in Liberia

Considering the Liberian society as the contextual setting or background, this study interrogates protest votes as another form of political behavior. It employs the conceptual analysis approach categorized as one of the kinds of qualitative research methods. Using the frustration-aggression theory as its theoretical framework, the paper unveils the inherent peril or risk associated with protest votes unknown to registered voters. It sees protest votes as an emotional response due to the dissatisfaction with incumbent candidates to realize campaign promises. On the premise that frustration has the proclivity to affect logical reasoning, the paper equates dissatisfaction to frustration which has implications for protest votes. Based on this premise, which is empirical, the paper argues that evidenced by the clamor (“I am calling from the most abandoned district”, “2023 is coming”) ahead of the 2023 elections, the Liberian society might witness a cyclical or repeated phenomenon of previous election results prompting the increasing clamor. The paper concludes whether the argument proffered herein is empirical or not, it does not take away the fact that protest vote is an emotional decision of voters’ dissatisfaction. As an emotional response influenced by frustration, it has the proclivity to affect their judgment during elections. For this reason, the paper cautions those making the clamor to be mindful because the frustration behind the inclination may result in illogical judgment. And finally, the paper clarifies that this caution is not in any clever or smart way to support and endorse the reelection of the incumbent leadership or candidates.

Differences in the Arrangement of Leave Outside the State Responsibility for Presidential Candidates and Incumbent Regional Head Candidates Based on the Equality Before the Law

The existence of differences in leave arrangements outside of the state's responsibility for incumbent candidates in the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election (pilpres) and the General Election of Regional Heads and Deputy Regional Heads (pemilukada) have an impact on the sense of justice in granting political rights attached to citizens. The research describes the arrangements' differences from the equality before the law's perspective. The type of research used is normative legal research with descriptive legal research methods. The problem approach used is statutory, comparative, and conceptual approaches. The data used in this research is secondary data, with a literature study method. Furthermore, the technique used in this research is to collect, identify and analyze the data presented in a qualitative descriptive form. The results of the research and discussion show that there are differences in leave arrangements outside of the state's responsibility for presidential and vice-presidential candidates and incumbent regional heads and deputy regional heads in the presidential and regional elections. Theoretically, every legislation formulation and application must be based on the principle of equality before as a form of social justice.

ANALISIS PROSES DAN FAKTOR PENYEBAB LAHIRNYA PASANGAN CALON TUNGGAL VERSUS KOTAK KOSONG PADA PILKADA SERENTAK TAHUN 2020

This study was conducted to see how the process and factors that cause the birth of a single candidate versus an empty box in the 2020 gunungsitoli mayor/deputy mayoral election. The study was conducted in the city of Gunungsitoli in August 2020. 
 The study used descriptive quality research methods with interview data collection techniques, and documentation to retrieve data from data sources in the form of writing, behavior, actions, events, events, words. The informants in this study are key informants of the Chairman of the DPC of the gunungsitoli city democratic party, the main informant of figures or candidates failed in the gunungsitoli election in 2020 and additional kpud informants and academics / communities.
 The results showed that the process of the birth of a single candidate in the gunungsitoli city election in 2020 began with political lobbying and the lack of intention from the public to run because the candidate who eventually became the sole candidate had enormous power or power.
 The factors that cause the birth of the candidate are influenced by the power of power (oligarchy) and material power that allows transactional politics (cartel politics) can be carried out by the incumbent candidate by buying the party in the dprd of gunungsitoli city so that the election is carried out with a single candidate versus an empty box.

STRATEGI PEMENANGAN CALEG PARTAI GERINDRA DALAM PEMILU LEGISLATIF 2019: STUDI KASUS BAMBANG PUJIANTO DAPIL 2 SIDOARJO

The present study discusses the strategy of winning the Gerindra party candidates in Sidoarjo. In this case the problem that occurs is the struggle for the seat of Si- doarjo regency DPRD. In this thesis the researcher will explain the winning strat- egies, challenges and obstacles during the campaign process of the Gerindra party candidates. Seeing within the framework of the theory of Firmanzah which states that political marketing is divided into 4 programs (4P) namely: Product, Promo- tion, Price, Place. In this research, it will be seen how the winning strategy carried out by the Gerindra party candidates (Bambang Pudjianto) in electoral districts 2 of Sidoarjo regency, where he is an incumbent candidate who has advanced as a people's representative. His strategy is to rely on 3 products of political jargon; # win us, the medical check-up program and aspiration stalls that reap the enthusias- tic response of citizens. With the strategy carried out by Bambang Pudjianto, he succeeded in attracting the sympathy of the people so that he was re-elected as the sidoarjo district parliament.

Going social: the 2020 regional election campaigns on Facebook between the local and the national

ABSTRACT This article focuses on the campaigns for the 2020 regional elections in Italy. Building on the literature referring to the second-order election model, we assess whether, and if so to what extent, regional election campaigns have been nationalized. Indicators of nationalization of the campaigns can be found in the relevance of national actors in political communication strategies thanks to their endorsement of local candidates and their presence at local campaign events. The salience given to national issues and national government performance in regional election campaigns may also reinforce dynamics of nationalization in them. Data are derived from the Facebook messages posted by the three main candidates in each region, and they have been interrogated by means of content analysis using a codebook identifying the main dimensions singled out by the literature. Results suggest that the great heterogeneity of the competitions prevents the identification of a clear pattern. Rather, region-specific and local dynamics are quite evident. In addition, incumbent candidates are unlikely to deploy national frames of reference.

Pandemic Democracy: Impact Regional Elections Held During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This article describes the impact of regional head elections held during the Covid-19 pandemic. It starts with an explanation of why elections are essential in a democracy. The approach used in this research is a literature study used primarily to explain the country's ability to hold elections, about how the risks to democracy are in the presence of external threats such as that experienced by the world with the spread of COVID-19. This study states that the pandemic is one factor that puts pressure on the global democracy index, Including Indonesia, in 2020. The incumbent's abuse of power in favoring himself as a candidate who will participate in the contestation includes the politicization of the Covid-19 social assistance incumbent candidate.

Neutrality of The State Civil Apparatus (ASN) in Indonesian Elections

The neutrality of ASN has always been a hot topic in various circles. Concern over the alignment of ASN to one of the candidate pairs is the main reason there are three types of politicization of the bureaucracy in Indonesia: First, openly politicization. Second, semi-open politicization, third, closed politicization. By utilizing the votes of civil servants, it is obvious for incumbent candidates with the promise of being given a position or to support their superiors and the mobilization of civil servants during general and regional elections. The politicization of the bureaucracy in Indonesia is still exist, currently politicization can appear from the legislature or from the executive with the aim of perpetuating power. From symptoms ranging from users of state facilities, mobilization of civil servants, compensation for positions, commercialization of positions, recruitment of new civil servants, to removal (depromotion) of regional secretaries. The involvement of the State Civil Apparatus (ASN) in practical politics is obvious because ASN is considered as the easiest way to influence society. The position of ASN is quite strategic and seen in the community, of course, will make it easier for candidates to gain support and have big hopes in the pilkada. The non-neutrality of ASN is certainly in the spotlight amidst the hopes of the community that ASN is able to become a pillar of an example of an honest and fair course of democratization.

Motif Aktor Lokal dalam Kuota Pencalonan 120 Persen Partai Politik Lokal pada Pemilu 2019

This research explains the change in the nomination quota for members of the Provincial DPRD (DPRA) and Regency / City DPRD (DPRK) members for local political parties in the 2019 Election in Aceh Province from a quota of 100 percent to 120 percent based on the number of seats that have been assigned to each electoral district, because the provisions of the LoGA stipulated in the Aceh Qanun are different from the national provisions. The change in the quota cannot be separated from the influence of requests made by DPRA members who are cadres of one of the local political parties. As a political actor at the local level, this request is supported by various motives. To analyze motives, the researchers looked at the reasons local actors asked for changes in nomination quotas. This research is a type of qualitative research by collecting data through interviews, observation and library data, then the data that has been obtained is analyzed by content. Research findings show that actors use an integrative model to get special treatment for local political parties in the 2019 elections, actor actions in achieving preferences, interactions between institutions and instruments or institutional rules, it is found that apart from maintaining the specificity of Aceh, the request for a 120 percent quota for political parties is found. The local background is also motivated by the motive of the interests of actors and their groups, namely becoming incumbent candidates and accommodating many candidates for DPRA and DPRK candidates from the Aceh Party.

Political Budget Cycle on The Regional Elections in Indonesia

This research aims to examine the Political Budget Cycle on The Regional Elections in Indonesia especially in Java and to give evidence related between the central government transfer and the political budget cycle authority in regions. The number of samples taken was 337 observation data during three observation periods i.e. elections years, one year before the elections, and two years before 2018, 2017, and 2015 elections. The technique of testing data used regression analysis with Eviews Software. The results of this research show that the regional elections improve grant expenditures and social aid expenditures, while investment expenditures are increased two years before the elections are held. The assumption that the incumbent candidates utilize their authority to do politicization budgets cannot be proven in this research. Besides, the relationship between the central transfer and the political budget cycle in regions cannot be proven either.

Kegagalan Praktik Patronase-Klientelisme pada Pemilihan Kepala Desa di Kabupaten Klaten Tahun 2019

The study patronage-clienttelism at the level Village Head Selection is still an important concern. Therefore, this study aims to explain the phenomenon of incumbent defeat and the failure patronage-clienttelism practices in the 2019 Village Head Elections in Klaten Regency. This study uses qualitative method with case study approach in Randusari Village, Jimbung Village, and Jiwowetan Village. Data collection using interviews and documentation studies, informants are selected purposively, consisting prospective village heads, successful teams, and voters. Data analysis techniques are carried out through data collection, data reduction, data presentation and drawing conclusions. The results showed that Village Head Elections Simultaneously Randusari, Jimbung and Jiwowetan 2019 are full of patronage-clienttelism practices. The types of patronage-clienttelism used vary quite by type, as well as actors who are directly related to the electorate. The practice patronage-clienttelism in all three villages, was unable to encourage the incumbent candidate to win the election result. The challengers managed to explore the limitations and cursess that exist in the incumbent. So that it is able to change the behavior of choosing society through psychological, sociological and rational choices.

U.S. presidential election polls and the economic prospects of China and Mexico

ABSTRACT Motivated by Mr. Trump’s agendas against China and Mexico, we investigate how a candidate’s probability of winning the U.S. presidential election affects the international financial markets that are related to these countries. Unexpected increases in Trump’s probability of winning the 2020 election generate significantly negative long-term effects on their home currency and the stock prices, while the default probability responds significantly positively in the long run. Similar responses, though in the short run, were observed when Mr. Biden’s probability of winning increases, which tends to dissipate quickly over time. The responses to the Biden shock resemble those to the Trump shock during the 2016 election, implying that the probability shock of the new entrant candidate creates short-run disturbances in the financial market, whereas the probability shock of the incumbent candidate such as Trump in 2020 or Clinton in 2016 helps stabilize financial markets in the short run.

Study of Media Exposure, Symbolic Interaction, and Electoral Effects in Regional Head Elections

Election for Regional Heads and Deputy Regional Heads is to elect Regional Heads and Deputy Regional Heads within the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. Prior to the enactment of Law Number 32 of 2004 concerning Regional Government, Regional Heads and Representatives Regional heads are elected by the Regional People's Representative Council (DPRD). However, since June 2005 Indonesia has adopted a system of direct regional head elections. So that the obligation to elect a regional head is not only given to the people's representatives (DPRD) but all people who are domiciled in their respective regions are responsible for choosing leaders in their regions. This study uses a survey method to answer the question. Is there a negative impact of media coverage about the provision of Hand Sanitisser with a picture of the incumbent candidate who is the assistance from the central government in winning the Klaten Regent? The results showed that media exposure in the form of negative news had a negative impact on the electability of regional leader candidates. Meanwhile, the results of the study also found that the negative news actually increased his popularity as a candidate who participated in the regional head election contestation in Klaten Regency by 97%. From the findings in the field, it can be concluded that there is no negative effect on hand sanitizers distributed by Klaten Regent Sri Mulyani ahead of the regional elections in Klaten Regency. In fact, with the distribution, Sri Mulyani's electability rate was very high at 51% percent. The negative media coverage of the hand sanitizer by the Klaten Regent to the community also did not have a negative effect.

The Patterns and Influences of Women's Legislative in Simultaneously General Elections in Indonesia

Gender is one of the essential aspects of the democratic process, including in the legislative elections. In this regard, this study aims to see the implementation of recruitment patterns and the influences used by women, and the factors that win women in Indonesia's legislative elections. This research is qualitative research by carrying out the documentation at the General Election Commission Office and in-depth interviews with women legislators elected in the 2019 general elections. The results showed that the Indonesian government has implemented affirmative action well, indicated by a minimum quota of 30% for female legislators. Besides, affirmative action's success is also supported by recruiting legislative candidates by parties using several approaches, namely the oligarchic approach, the cadre selection approach, the structural approach, the transparency approach, and the dedicated approach. Furthermore, the prevalence and factors that support women legislators' success in the 2019 elections, which have increased compared to the 2014 elections, influence the sequence number and the incumbent candidates' influence. In the end, this affirmative action policy positively affects women who want to take part in politics.