Incumbent Candidates Research Articles

Electoral Turnovers

Abstract In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, we show that turnovers improve several measures of country performance. To explain these positive effects, we explore how electoral turnovers affect leader characteristics, shape policy decisions, reduce perceived corruption, and foster accountability.

Dismantling Discrimination: Breaking Down Systemic Inequities in Our Communities and Workplaces

This article explores the author's emotional reaction and reflections following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, in which an incumbent candidate secured both the electoral college and popular vote. As an educated, upper-middle class, straight, cisgender white man, the author grapples with his own privilege and the implications of the election result for marginalized communities. The piece delves into the concepts of "disparate impact" and "disparate treatment" discrimination, examining how these forms of systemic bias manifest not just in the workplace, but also in public policy and the legislative process, with examples provided across domains such as voting rights, criminal justice, environmental regulations, and education funding. The author outlines alternative policy, legislative, and legal approaches that could help address these complex issues of discrimination and inequality, concluding with a call to self-reflection and an urging of readers to consider their own complicity in perpetuating disparate impacts and to take concrete steps towards dismantling systemic inequities in society.

Political Consequences of Consumer Debt Relief

Abstract Many democracies operate consumer debt relief programs. These are often implemented or adjusted during the election cycle, but their political effects are not well-understood. We investigate if debt relief can influence high-stakes elections. We utilize quasi-experimental variation generated by a very large privately-funded debt relief program enacted in the Republic of Georgia during the presidential election in 2018 that affected every sixth voter. We estimate that the program helped the incumbent candidate win that election, and that its effects persisted. Overall, we show how economic power can translate into political power in a democracy.

Two terms of endearment? Incumbent-party performance in US presidential elections

Abstract Presidential elections are arguably the most consequential recurring political event in the United States. Understanding the factors that determine their outcomes, therefore, is of substantial importance. One proposed factor pertains to presidential candidates' incumbency status, yet its nature is complex and difficult to study with observational data. In particular, the individual-level mechanisms underlying incumbency effects remain unclear. This study proposes many citizens generally believe that, ceteris paribus, presidents should be afforded two terms. Crucially, such a norm implies that incumbency status possesses an inherent effect, operating independent of other mechanisms that may stem from incumbency. A large, pre-registered survey experiment was therefore employed to isolate the effect of incumbency status on presidential vote choice. The experiment finds strong evidence that one-term incumbent candidates have an inherent advantage against their non-incumbent opponents. The results also clarify that the two-term disadvantage present in observational data is not inherent, and is perhaps better understood simply as the absence of the one-term advantage. The study thus points toward a micro-foundational mechanism underlying incumbent-party performance in presidential elections. Finally, analyses of panel data explore which voters may be systematically inclined to vote based upon the incumbency status of presidential candidates.

Bankers and Sheriffs? The Economy, Public Security, and Vote Intention for Presidential Incumbents in Central America

ABSTRACT Students of Latin American politics have identified the economy and public security as relevant determinants of voting behaviour. This article extends those insights to Central America. We use a decade of AmericasBarometer data from 2008 to 2018 to study whether voters in six Central American countries prioritise economic or public security issues when casting votes for the incumbent candidate or party. The results reveal that positive economic perceptions – retrospective national outlook in particular – help explain rewarding incumbents. In turn, the perception of insecurity, more than crime victimisation, is related to punishing incumbents. Therefore, the evidence suggests Central Americans behave like bankers and sheriffs when casting votes, although economic views weigh more than public security perceptions. The results indicate strikingly similar accountability patterns across countries.

Peran Kiai dalam Pemilihan Bupati dan Wakil Bupati Kabupaten Blitar Tahun 2020

This study examines the role of Kiai in the 2020 Blitar Regency Regent and Deputy Regent Election, especially in supporting the incumbent candidate pair. The main focus is to understand how Kiai, as part of a non-party social network, captures voter support and why they failed to win over the incumbent candidate's pair. This study also explores the motivation of Kiai in providing support and the form of patron-client relationship between Kiai and students or the voting community. Through qualitative descriptive methods, this study reveals that although the support of Kiai and ulama is important, the personal charisma of the candidates and the limitations of the campaign due to the Covid-19 pandemic also greatly affect the election results. The results of this study are expected to provide insight into local political dynamics and the important role of Kiai in political contestation in Blitar Regency.

Strategi Komunikasi Caleg Petahana DPRD Kota Padang

This research aims to understand the communication strategies of incumbent candidates of the Regional House of Representatives in Padang City who were successfully re-elected in the 2024 elections. A qualitative method was used, with three candidate informants and five constituents. The data was analyzed using James E. Grunig's dialogue theory. The main findings reveal three strategies: adjustment of communication language, strengthening emotional relationships, and maintenance of good relations and empathy. This research has important implications for political communication practitioners and researchers. It highlights the significance of two-way communication and public engagement in building relationships between politicians and constituents. It also emphasizes the importance of building emotional relationships and empathy, as they contribute to increased constituent trust and support. Additionally, the research suggests adjusting communication strategies according to constituent characteristics.

Emotions and the status quo: The anti-incumbency bias in political prediction markets

Emotions are often associated with politics, with new research confirming this connection. There is a link between negative emotions and political actions that oppose an incumbent candidate or party. We examine whether this “anti-incumbency” bias extends to political prediction markets, where such emotions can conflict with economic rationality. We analyze unique data from Media Predict, a commercial prediction market. Before a trade is executed, participants are asked to write a justification for their actions. Using text analysis, we measure the emotional sentiment of the justifications of traders buying contracts predicting a change in the incumbent candidate or party. Consistent with anti-incumbency bias, the justifications of buyers of a challenger contract had significantly more negative emotional sentiment scores. We document this finding in prediction markets associated with the 2012 US Presidential Election and the 2015 UK General Election. We conclude that, despite incentives to the contrary, traders’ actions in political stock markets are associated with strong emotions tied to incumbency status.

Peranan Biro Wanita dan Sayap Pemuda dalam Politik Pilihan Raya Semasa Pilihan Raya Negeri Sarawak 2021 di Tamin dan Meluan

This article examines the electoral politics of the 2021 Sarawak State Election (SSE21), focusing on the Women’s Bureau and Youth Wing of Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP). Using the framework of clientelism, the study investigates the interdependent relationships between the women’s bureau, youth wing and candidates. From the outset, it is evident that the provision of rewards and services by candidates both before and after the election played a significant role in consolidating the support of the women’s bureau and youth wing members, particularly towards the incumbent candidates. The research was conducted through observations and in-depth interviews with candidates, PRS and PDP representatives, women’s bureau and youth wing members, youth leaders, and community leaders, including tuai rumah and penghulu, in the State Legislative Assembly (SLA) of Meluan and Tamin.

Incumbency and self-uncertainty: when prototypical leaders lose their advantage

ABSTRACT Research on how uncertainty affects the preference for prototypical over non-prototypical leaders has produced mixed results. To understand these discrepancies, two studies explored leader status (prospective versus incumbent) as a potential moderator. Participants reported levels of self-uncertainty (Study 1) or were primed with high versus low self-uncertainty (Study 2) before evaluating a prototypical or non-prototypical leadership candidate who was incumbent or prospective. For incumbent candidates, prototypicality predicted more favorable evaluations under low self-uncertainty, but this relationship was weakened under high self-uncertainty. For prospective candidates, prototypicality predicted more favorable evaluations under high self-uncertainty, but this relationship was weakened under low self-uncertainty.

Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design

ABSTRACT Do voters punish political leaders in the aftermath of a natural disaster? Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, this article explores how floods affect local electoral results in Chile. Taking data from polling stations, our estimations show that, floods reduce the likelihood of incumbent candidates’ chances of winning in affected polling stations in a range from 11.3% to 22%, depending on the bandwidth considered. It also follows from our results that the greater the electoral competition, the greater the probability of losing the next race. The paper explores the electoral mechanism and finds that turnout is significantly lower in affected areas, pointing to voter dissatisfaction as an explanatory factor.

Making Policies Matter: Voter Responses to Campaign Promises

Abstract Can voters in clientelist countries be swayed by programmatic promises? Results from a structural model and a field experiment disseminating candidate policy platforms in Philippine mayoral elections indicate that they can. Voters who received information about candidate policy promises were more likely to vote for candidates who were closer to their own preferences. Voters who were informed about incumbent candidates’ past commitments were more likely to vote for incumbents who fulfilled them. The structural model uncovers mechanisms. Information about campaign promises increases policies’ salience relative to other voter concerns; it also affects voter beliefs about candidate quality and candidates’ platforms.

Strategi Kampanye hingga Peran Partai pada Pencalonan Legislatif Petahana dan Pendatang Baru Tahun 2019

This research examines the campaign strategies of incumbent and newcomer legislative candidates to discover the differences or similarities in campaign strategies in the context of the 2019 elections. Through this research, the author also seeks to understand the role of political parties in nominating their members as legislative representatives. This study utilizes a qualitative descriptive method with a case study approach. Data collection techniques were conducted through interviews using the political marketing 4P approach: Product, promotion, price, and place. This research shows exciting differences in the political marketing 4P theory, specifically in Product and Promotion. Incumbent candidates with a background in civil society successfully marketed their products (ideas and work programs) to the public through door-to-door interactions and campaign materials such as educational, political books, brochures, billboards, stickers, and social media. Meanwhile, new legislative candidates should have sold their work program or vision to the public. However, they relied solely on their popularity as a celebrity background and utilized social media as a tool to campaign as legislative candidates. The party's role in nominating a cadre to become a legislative member is optional. The party serves as a platform for administrative requirements and the identity of a cadre. The party does not provide financial support to the cadre but relies on individual funds or funds from other individuals. However, the party still has responsibilities, including guidance, monitoring, and evaluation.

Politik Uang pada Pemilihan Bupati dan Wakil Tahun 2020 di Kabupaten Mandailing Natal

This article aims to describe the process of vote buying and selling at 2 TPS in Kampung Baru Village and analyze the political relations of incumbent candidates in Kampung Baru Village. This research uses a qualitative descriptive approach with a case study method. The theories used are vote buying, patronage, and clientelism. The research results show that vote buying at 2 TPS in Kampung Baru Village stems from low voter participation. There were 216 voters who came to exercise their voting rights out of 872 voters. Seeing the low voter participation, the Head of Kampung Baru Village as the incumbent's success team asked the KPPS to vote on the remaining ballot papers. KPPS officers agreed and asked the incumbent's success team to discuss it with the PPS chairman of Kampung Baru Village. The results of the negotiations between the PPS chairman and the Village Head resulted in an agreement to buy and sell 400 votes in exchange for Rp. 30,000/ballot paper. The patronage relationship between incumbent candidates and KPPS and PPS officers in Kampung Baru Village occurs through the clientelism network of the Village Head as a liaison mediator who reconciles the political interests of the incumbent with the needs of the organizers. The implications of money politics on the integrity of the regional election organizers and results damage the image and good name of the institution, reduce public confidence in the election organizers and results, damage the quality of the democratic election process and results, disrupt the election implementation scheme and weaken the political legitimacy of the people.

Kampanye Politik Sebagai Politik Pemasaran : Tinjauan Atas Pemilihan Umum Calon Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2019

Elections play an important role in the democracy. One of the stages of elections is a political campaign. Political campaigns symbolically unite citizens and leaders in a ritual of debate, discussion and dialogue every four years. However, this can only become a popular myth if political campaigns are not carried out in a democratic manner. In Indonesia, limited campaign time forces election participants to plan effective political campaign strategies through the mass media. This research is an analytical descriptive approach that will describe how the objectives of political campaigns can be achieved within the framework of marketing political communication theory, with a review of the 2019 Presidential Election case. Data and information are collected from Kompas.com, an online media during a certain period. In the 2019 election, the campaign period is very limited. Candidate use all available political resources to campaign and win elections. Based on news analysis on Kompas.com during campaign periode, as an incumbent candidate, Joko Widodo used a campaign to market the programs, such as: digital serving programs, the three magic cards program (Indonesia Smart College Card, Cheap Grocery Cards and Pre-Employment Cards) and infrastructure programs. Meanwhile, the Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Salahudin Uno candidate also used the campaign to market their programs, they are strengthening government institutions to prevent corruption and programs to improve Indonesia's economy. Candidate Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin sold his dream, namely "Jokowi wins 75%" and “changes for the better”. Meanwhile, the Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Salahudin Uno candidate echoes the jargon "Indonesia wins" as his dream. 
 Keywords: Indonesia’s Election; Campaign; Communication; Political Marketing

Interactive Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization via Learning to Rank

In practical multi-criterion decision-making, it is cumbersome if a decision maker (DM) is asked to choose among a set of trade-off alternatives covering the whole Pareto-optimal front. This is a paradox in conventional evolutionary multi-objective optimization (EMO) that always aim to achieve a well balance between convergence and diversity. In essence, the ultimate goal of multi-objective optimization is to help a decision maker (DM) identify solution(s) of interest (SOI) achieving satisfactory trade-offs among multiple conflicting criteria. Bearing this in mind, this paper develops a framework for designing preference-based EMO algorithms to find SOI in an interactive manner. Its core idea is to involve human in the loop of EMO. After every several iterations, the DM is invited to elicit her feedback with regard to a couple of incumbent candidates. By collecting such information, her preference is progressively learned by a learning-to-rank neural network and then applied to guide the baseline EMO algorithm. Note that this framework is so general that any existing EMO algorithm can be applied in a plug-in manner. Experiments on 48 benchmark test problems with up to 10 objectives and a real-world multi-objective robot control problem fully demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms for finding SOI.

Non-Religious and Ethnic Orientations in the Voting Process: A Recent Study of Javanese Voters

Previous studies on Javanese voters in Indonesia emphasised sociological factors, mainly religious and ethnic, in the shaping of voting decisions. Religious positions and socio-religious orientation encourage partisan politics of the voters in elections. In the democratic era, the behaviour of Javanese voters outside the area of the Javanese ethnic bases in Central Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java resulted in the same explanation. This article however argues that Javanese ethnic identity is not the foundation for decisions when selecting candidates for regional heads; instead, this foundation is based on religious similarity. This qualitative observational study examines the logic of vote shifting from the incumbent candidate to the challenger in the 2020 pilkada (elections for regional leader) of Blitar Regency, Indonesia. It reveals that emotional closeness between voters and the challenger encourages electoral shift. The closeness is built upon two aspects: voters’ involvement in tarekat (Sufi order) activities and networks that attach to both the regent and vice vice-regent candidates as well as the murid (pupil) relationship with the vice-regent candidate. Another aspect is the similarities between voters and Muslim massbased organisations (MBOs) that support the challenger. Moreover, the emotional closeness between the incumbent and their constituents explains voters’ decision to keep voting for him. Based on the fieldwork findings, emotional closeness can be interpreted as a form of attachment or loyalty that affects voters’ perceptions of candidates. Therefore, consideration of the emotional bond between voters and candidate extends the logic of Javanese voting behaviour, as previously highlighted in the explanation of religious and cultural factors.

What You See and What You Get: Direct and Indirect Political Dividends of Public Policies

AbstractWe investigated both the direct and indirect political dividends of public policies by examiningMinha Casa,Minha Vida, a housing programme in Brazil that selects its beneficiaries by lottery. We surveyed the lottery participants and found that the winners were not more likely to support the incumbent politicians. Non-beneficiaries, a much larger group, were aware of the programme and thought well of it while the beneficiaries' responses to the programme were sometimes underwhelming. However, politicians considered the programme to be an electoral asset, and a difference-in-differences analysis of electoral results leveraging the roll-out of the programme across municipalities found that presidential and mayoral incumbent candidates performed better in localities that had implemented MCMV. Overall, when the beneficiaries formed a relatively small group, the benefits were conspicuous and the programme's objectives were widely supported. Government programmes can create electoral payoffs independently of how programmes are perceived or experienced by beneficiaries.

ANALISIS INDIKASI PENYALAHGUNAAN BELANJA HIBAH OLEH PASLON INCUMBENT PADA PEMILUKADA SERENTAK 2020

The purpose of this study was to examine the tendencies to abuse the power of incumbent candidates in making budget of grant expenditure to support their political interests in the local election on December 9th,2020, in Indonesia. Sample were chosen by random sampling with proporsional allocation between district and municipals. The sample for the first population was 56 district/municipals, consisting 51 district and 5 municipalities, while the sample for the second population was 57 district/municipals, consisting of 46 district and 11 municipalities. Two statistical analysis were used in this research; the first was Wilcoxon signed rank test and the second was the Mann-Whitney U test. Data normality test using kanji w/s test had been done to determine which analysis to be used. The result of hypothesis test have been tested at confidence 95% and showed that there was a significant increase in mean log of incumbent candidates in the year 2019 compared to 2020, while for the mean log of grant expenditure for incumbent candidates and non-incumbent candidates at the time of the local election (2020) there was a significant difference

Political Marketing Strategy for the Incumbent Candidate Pair in the 2020 Asahan District Elections

This study aims to analyse the political marketing strategy undertaken by a pair of rural candidates (Surya-Taufik) in the face of a simultaneous general election of the head of the area (Electors) in 2020 in Kabupaten Asahan. There are a couple of farmers in the district's electoral campaign that are often regarded as strong candidates, which is because they are considered to have more dominant political capital such as popularity capital, networks and images. A pair of evaluated maps have a good image as a popular official in the public eye, but if supported by positive performance figures will certainly strengthen the relationship between the voters and the candidate pair in terms of winning. The theory used to explain these problems is democracy theory, political market theory, political communication theory and role theory. Based on the results of field research, it can be concluded that the process of winning a candidate pair (Surya-Taufik) is a candidate process, forming a winning team, doing research, designing political products, implementing political products, conducting political communication and building commitment. The political marketing theory of the candidate pair (Surya-Taufik) also uses three approaches: push marketing, pull marketing and pass marketing in conducting political campaigns. The strategy is a comprehensive step taken by the candidate pair (Surya-Taufik) and the successful team that can be accepted by all communities.