Increment Of Rainfall Research Articles

Temperature and Precipitation Change Assessment in the North of Iraq Using LARS-WG and CMIP6 Models

Investigating the spatial-temporal evolutionary trends of future temperature and precipitation considering various emission scenarios is crucial for developing effective responses to climate change. However, researchers in Iraq have not treated this issue under CMIP6 in much detail. This research aims to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature and rainfall in northern Iraq by applying LARS-WG (8) under CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). Five GCMs (ACCESS-ESM1-5, CNRM-CM6-1, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MRI-ESM2-0) and two emissions scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) were applied to project the upcoming climate variables for the period from 2021 to 2040. The research relied on satellite data from fifteen weather sites spread over northern Iraq from 1985 to 2015 to calibrate and validate the LARS-WG model. Analysis of spatial-temporal evolutionary trends of future temperature and precipitation compared with the baseline period revealed that seasonal mean temperatures will increase throughout the year for both scenarios. However, the SSP585 scenario reveals the highest increase during autumn when the spatial coverage of class (15–20) °C increased from 27.7 to 96.29%. At the same time, the average seasonal rainfall will rise in all seasons for both scenarios except autumn for the SSP585 scenario. The highest rainfall increment percentage is obtained using the SSP585 for class (120–140) mm during winter. The spatial extent of the class increased from 25.49 to 50.19%.

Spatiotemporal climate variability and trends in the Upper Gelana Watershed, northeastern highlands of Ethiopia

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS and TAMSAT satellite rainfall data over the Upper Gelana watershed, where gauged meteorological data to understand the nature of the climate are scarce. In addition, variability and trends in rainfall and temperature were examined from 1983 to 2021. To evaluate satellite rainfall, categorical and continuous validation statistics were used. Trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope estimator, and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. The study also utilized time-series geostatistical analysis techniques. The validation statistics show that TAMSAT performs better on the daily timescale, while the two products have comparable performance on the monthly timescale. TAMSAT was chosen for rainfall analysis because of its higher resolution and performance. The results reveal high inter-annual spatiotemporal variability and strong irregularities in monthly rainfall. The Mann-Kendall test indicates statistically significant positive trends in kiremt and annual rainfall, but belg rainfall exhibits an insignificant negative trend. In the kiremt season, we found a 96.1, 101.6, and 104.8 mm decadal rate of rainfall increment in the lower weina dega (LWD), upper weina dega (UWD), and dega agroecological zones, respectively. In contrast, belg season rainfall declined by 16.4, 16.2, and 14.0 mm per decade in the LWD, UWD, and dega agroecology zones, respectively. The pixel-wise trend analysis also revealed trends and magnitudes of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall that vary across the study area. In both LWD and UWD annual minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, showed significant decreasing and increasing trends, but in dega agroecology the trends were insignificant. The findings of rainfall and temperature trends using the ITA method demonstrated its ability to discover some hidden trends that were not detected by the MK test.

Improving seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over southern China using the BCC_CSM1.1m model‐circulation increment‐based dynamic statistical technique

AbstractA model‐circulation increment‐based dynamic statistical technique (MIDST) is proposed in this paper to improve the prediction of summer rainfall over southern China (SC) where quite low prediction skills have been found in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with a moderate resolution (BCC_CSM1.1m). The results show that BCC_CSM1.1m can hardly represent the variability of the summer rainfall anomaly and its year‐to‐year increment over SC, and the skillful predictions are mostly confined over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Using the dynamic model output and statistical method, the MIDST is established to capture the coupled modes between the year‐to‐year increments of the summer rainfall anomaly and the associated simultaneous three‐dimensional coupled air‐sea circulation predictors. The cross‐validation indicates that the prediction skills of the MIDST are evidently improved for both the summer rainfall increment prediction and summer rainfall anomaly prediction compared with the direct BCC_CSM1.1m prediction. The skillful prediction can persist for long forecast leads over most regions except southwestern China. As the major predictability source of seasonal prediction, the intense response to changes in the circulation related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well captured, and thus, the performance improvement of the MIDST is primarily due to its more realistic representation of the incremental circulation related to the ENSO.

Hydroclimatic trend analysis and projection in Africa tropical urban regions: Cases of Lusaka, Zambia and Kigali, Rwanda

The global climate has significantly changed primarily due to human-induced activities. The incidences of droughts and extreme floods followed by destruction have been appearing across the globe along with extensive effects on economic and public health sectors, including the human lives losses whereby, Africa is among the greatly affected regions. Several studies aver that weather-related extremes are likely to increase due to the rising impacts. This article aims to emerge the effects of a warning climate on temperature and precipitation patterns in African tropical regions for pre-emptive adaptation practices. It was conducted using nonparametric Mann-Kendall's test and Sen's slope estimator coupled with the downscaled global climate models (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs). The study shows that the annual precipitation in Lusaka keeps decreasing though the rainfall season showed an increasing possibility. The projection under ssp245 showed a slight rainfall decrement but increased by the mid-century under ssp585. Besides, the rainfall in Kigali, presents an excess increment resulting in increased extreme events. The projection showed up to 40% annual rainfall increment by the end-century under ssp585. However, both the regions present a slight trend increment in maximum and minimum temperature. Henceforth, the results of this study may prove useful in climate change mitigation and adaptation practices on rainfed agriculture, hydroelectricity, water supply systems, and resilient hydraulic infrastructure provision in the region.

Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change – A panel data analysis

New Zealand is a major producer of carrot seeds globally. Carrots are an important nutritional crop for human consumption. Since the growth and development of carrot seed crops mainly depend on climatic factors, seed yield is extremely susceptible to climate change. This modeling study was undertaken using a panel data approach to determine the impact of the atmospheric conditions (proxied by maximum and minimum temperature) and precipitation during the critical growth stages for seed production in carrot, viz., juvenile phase, vernalization phase, floral development phase, and flowering and seed development phase on carrot seed yield. The panel dataset was created using cross-sections from 28 locations within the Canterbury and Hawke's Bay regions of New Zealand that cultivate carrot seed crops and time series from 2005 to 2022. Pre-diagnostic tests were performed to test the model assumptions, and a fixed effect model was selected subsequently. There was significant (p < 0.01) variability in temperature and rainfall throughout different growing phases, except for precipitation at the vernalization phase. The highest rate of changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation were recorded during the vernalization phase (+0.254 °C per year), floral development phase (+0.18 °C per year), and juvenile phase (−6.508 mm per year), respectively. Based on marginal effect analysis, the highest significant influence of minimum (187.724 kg/ha of seed yield decrease for each 1 °C increment) and maximum temperature (1 °C rise increases seed yield by 132.728 kg/ha), and precipitation (1 mm increment of rainfall decreases the seed yield by 1.745 kg/ha) on carrot seed yield were reported at vernalization, and flowering and seed development, respectively. The minimum and maximum temperatures have a higher marginal effect on carrot seed production. Analysis of the panel data demonstrates that the production of carrot seeds will be vulnerable to climatic change.

Rainwater Harvesting Practices and Its Effectiveness in Kathmandu Metropolitan City

Water scarcity has been a major problem of Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC). Different interventions are being attempted to solve this problem including the highly discussed Melamchi Drinking Water supply project. Thus, so rainwater harvesting (RWH) could be a promising approach to satisfy water to some extent. The study has aimed to assess the status of rainwater harvesting practices in KMC and to examine its effectiveness in overcoming the water shortage. A total of 244 households were surveyed covering 32 wards of KMC through random sampling method and semi structured questionnaire forms were laid for the data collection. The annual rainfall data of interval 30 years (1990-2019) of KMC, collected from department of Hydrology and Meteorology for trend analysis. Study revealed 58.2% of households are practicing RWH and among them 63.2% installed RWH system more than five years ago. About 63% of households are practicing roof top harvesting which is found to be more convenient in terms of cost and space. Strong positive correlation (R2=0.876, r=0.942) was observed among amount of water harvested and space occupied by RWH system and was statistically significant (P &lt;0.05). Harvested water is found mainly used for household’s chores, flushing toilets and watering the garden. Majority (95.8%) of respondents did not prefer harvested water for drinking due to its poor water quality, high contamination and bad odor and taste. About 73.2% of the respondents decontaminate harvested water before using and filtration (63%) is found to be most common and effective method for decontamination. Despite of challenges like leakages of storages and gutters, about 87.3% of respondents are strongly satisfied with RWH system as it reduced the municipal water supply bill and provides excess water for the sanitation. Furthermore, the trend analysis showed increment of rainfall in the area by 1.21 mm per annum. Study regarding governmental incentives for the installation of RWH system, availability and accessibility of quality products, training on installation and sanitary management of RWH system would help to shed further light in the aspects of RWH.

The effectiveness of MyMAT Aedes mosquito trap in reducing dengue cases.

Malaysia Mosquito Autocidal Trap (MyMAT) is a green technology Aedes mosquito trap that does not use harmful chemical substances. This study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of MyMAT in reducing dengue cases and relating the cases to rainfall. An experimental field study was conducted for 42 weeks at Pangsapuri Nilam Sari, Shah Alam, Selangor. A total of 624 MyMAT was allocated at four blocks: inside each apartment and outside at the corridors in each level. Mosquito and rainfall data were collected weekly using MyMAT and a mobile rain gauge, respectively. The dengue cases data was retrieved from the e-dengue system obtained from the Malaysia Ministry of Health. The findings showed that MyMAT could catch 97% of Aedes mosquitoes and reduced dengue cases on average of 78%, indicating MyMAT is a reliable Aedes mosquito trap. Interestingly the findings also revealed a significant relationship between dengue cases, the number of Aedes mosquitoes, and rainfall. This week notified dengue cases increased when last two weeks mosquitoes increased due to previous two weeks rainfall increment. Thus indicating an indirect but significant relationship between this week notified dengue cases with the last four weeks rainfall. These relationships can be used in establishing a dengue outbreak forecasting model, which can act as an early warning system.

Water Supply Reliability of Agricultural Reservoirs under Varying Climate and Rice Farming Practices

Technological development and climate change dictate farming practices, which can directly affect irrigation water requirement and supply. In this article, the water supply reliability (WSR) of 62 major Korean agricultural reservoirs was comprehensively evaluated for varying climate and farming practices. Field surveys identified the recent divergence from standard rice farming practices and a 45-year daily weather data set (1973–2017) was examined to understand the phenomenon of climate change. Effective rainfall increments mitigated the imminent surges in rice irrigation water requirements driven by warming-led accelerated crop evapotranspiration rates; therefore, climate change marginally influenced the WSR of selected reservoirs. The transplanting period and associated water consumption were the primary deviations from standard rice farming practices. A significantly prolonged transplanting period seriously compromised the WSR of agricultural reservoirs and the maximum number of unsafe reservoirs was detected for a 24-day increase in the transplanting period. A watershed/irrigated area ratio of less than 2.5 was the lower threshold below which all the reservoirs had unsafe WSR regardless of the climate change and/or farming practices. Recent variations in farming practices were the primary cause of reservoir failure in maintaining the WSR.

Climate-Induced Perspective Variations in Irrigation Schedules and Design Water Requirements for the Rice–Wheat System

Conceptualizing the implications of climate change for crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and subsequent net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) is critical to sustaining Pakistan’s agriculture and food security. In this article, future ETc, NIWR, and design water requirements (DWR) were projected for the rice–wheat system of Punjab, Pakistan. Consistently increasing temperatures signify an impending hotter transition in the future thermal regime, accompanied by a substantial increase in monsoon rainfall. Future climate warming accelerated ETc and NIWR, which were compensated by 2–5 and 1–2 additional irrigations during the rice and wheat seasons, respectively. Future rice and wheat required 13–18 and 2–5 irrigations per season, respectively. Effective rainfall increments did not compensate for the warming-driven higher ETc and NIWR because of uneven and erratic rainfall distribution. Rainfall occurrence and the duration of peak irrigation demand were mismatched, resulting in surplus rainwater availability during the future rice season. The results suggest that DWR for 5- and 10-year return period droughts during the baseline period (965 and 1000 mm, respectively) should be revised to accommodate the additional 100–200 mm of irrigation water per season; otherwise, the study area will face an acute water shortage in the future.

Hydromorphological assessment in North Morocco: The case of Martil River

The present study is about an assessment of the Martil River restoration, which crosses Tetouan and Martil city in Northern Morocco. The evaluation compromises rainfall occurrence of 30 years, riparian habitats, and the river flow of 12 years. The rainfall analysis was carried out by the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Only three stations that contain continuous monthly precipitation data were considered. The river health and water quality were determined by the QBR (Riparian Habitat Quality), while the environmental flow was estimated by Tennant method. SPI results show a rainfall increment pattern with regular, extreme, and plentiful downpours causing rough deluges and floods. The ultimate flow result to support the river habitats was found 60% of the natural flow in the main channel. This study highlights the stream’s unhealthy water, which falls within the low-quality water category downstream the river under anthropogenic pressure, while good to excellent quality was scored upstream the watershed. Tennant outcomes were discovered 2.40 m³/s as 30% and 5.51 m³/s as 60%, while 10% of the flow was found to be not adequate for habitats in the Martil River.

Ecosystem productivity and CO2 exchange response to the interaction of livestock grazing and rainfall manipulation in a Kenyan savanna

Savanna ecosystems in Kenya are experiencing altered rainfall amount and increased grazing pressure. These environmental alterations occur simultaneously and impact on productivity and CO 2 exchange of the savanna in unclear ways. Rainfall was manipulated and its interaction with livestock grazing on productivity and CO 2 exchange within the herbaceous vegetation investigated for two years. Rainfall manipulation plots which received ambient rainfall (100% rainfall), fifty percent more rainfall (150% rainfall) or fifty percent less rainfall (50% rainfall) were set up within grazed and fenced areas respectively. Measurement chambers were used to quantify monthly CO 2 exchange. Monthly biomass and soil water content (SWC), bulk density, plant and soil C/N were quantified. Grazing reduced CO 2 exchange through reduction in aboveground green biomass. The interaction of grazing and rainfall reduction lowered Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) and Ecosystem Respiration (R eco ) through the imposition and amplification of drought by grazing and rainfall reduction respectively. The interaction of grazing and rainfall increment led to increased GPP and NEE, confirming the role of SWC in driving CO 2 exchange in the grazed savanna, however, R eco was not significantly (P ​> ​0.05) affected by the interaction of grazing and rainfall increment. This shows that the CO 2 exchange in this ecosystem do not always respond linearly to rainfall variation. These results demonstrate the importance of the interacting environmental variables in determination of carbon balance of savannas. • Livestock grazing lowers savanna soil moisture, productivity and carbon exchange in this ecosystem. • Interaction of livestock grazing and reduced in rainfall lowers ecosystem CO2 exchange in this ecosystem. • Interaction of livestock grazing and increased rainfall has a positive impact on productivity in this ecosystem.

Influence mechanism of climate change over crop growth and water demands for wheat-rice system of Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract Conceptualizing the climate change perspective of crop growth and evapotranspiration (ETc) rates and subsequent irrigation water requirements (IWR) is necessary for sustaining the agriculture sector and tackling food security issues in Pakistan. This article projects the future growth periods and water demands for the wheat-rice system of Punjab. Intense and hotter transitions in the future thermal regimes and erratic monsoon rainfall increments were envisaged. The crop growth rates were accelerated by the probable temperature rise resulting in shortened growth periods. The temperature rise increased the reference evapotranspiration rates; however, the future ETc declined due to reduced growth period and net radiation. Highly unpredictable, but mostly increasing, cumulative seasonal and annual rainfalls were indicative of more effective rainfalls during the future crop seasons. Reduced ETc and increments in seasonal effective rainfalls gave rise to the declining IWR for both crops. The study findings seemingly undermined the harmful climate change influences on the water requirements of the wheat-rice system of Punjab but alarmingly shortening of growth periods indicates a higher crop failure tendency under the projected future thermal regime.

Possible climate change implications for Saudi Arabian meteorology station maximum daily rainfall records

Global and local models of climate change indicate that in many parts of the Arabian Peninsula rainfall increments are expected during this century. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is also subject to rainfall increases especially in the northern and southwestern high mountainous parts with some local increments and decrements in some other parts. Such impacts are very important, because they are bound to affect also the infrastructure in the urban areas and also engineering water structures such as dams, reservoirs, levees, culverts, flood protection canals, groundwater recharge, etc. So far, in almost all water-related application projects, the possible impact of climate change has not been taken into consideration. It is the main purpose of this paper to develop suitable preliminary climate change indicators in terms of trend component technique and expose its applications throughout the historical annual daily maximum rainfall records. Trends in the past records are implementations of future possible tendencies in other words they are helpful as preliminary descriptors of possible trends.

Impact of Climate Variability on Cool Weather Crop Yield in Ethiopia

The research examined effect of climate variability on yield of the two dominant cool weather cereals (wheat and barley) in central highland and Arssi grain plough farming systems of Ethiopia using eight round unbalanced panel data (1994-2014). The stochastic frontier model result revealed that production inputs for producing wheat and barley in the two farming system had significant effect. Crop season rainfall increment had negative and significant effect on technical efficiency of smallholders to produce wheat as to the model result. Technical efficiency of two crops responded differently for cropping season rainfall variability, in which wheat had negative and significant interaction with it while barley had positive. Given this, cropping season temperature had significant and positive effect on technical efficiency of both wheat and barley. Having this into account, yield of the two crops responded similarly for changes in production inputs like working capital, human labor and fertilizer. In general, rainfall inconsistency at the different stages of the production period had strong effect on yield of the two crops. Given this, the study forwarded an assignment to plant scientists in order to have further investigation on how the two crops responded differently to temperature variability.

Radar and rain gauge rainfall discrepancies driven by changes in atmospheric conditions

AbstractThis study explores humidity impacts on radar‐gauge rainfall discrepancies in three‐dimensional spatial fields. The results indicate that the radar overestimates rainfall when relative humidity is low, whereas the increment of rainfall is detected by the gauge when relative humidity maintains high. The proposed linear models exhibit desirable fitting correlations between the mean relative humidity and the average rainfall deficits especially in the cold season with a higher correlation coefficient r (0.837). The results of model generalizations show a considerable improvement in the radar‐gauge rainfall agreement as RMSE declines evidently from 4.002 mm/h to 1.057 mm/h for rainfall events in the cold season and from 4.615 mm/h to 1.048 mm/h in the warm season. This is the first study as a proof of concept in quantifying relative humidity impacts on radar‐gauge rainfall discrepancies in three‐dimensional fields, which is worthwhile considered as an essential component in radar data correction for hydrometeorological applications.

Characterization of the dengue outbreak in Nuevo Leon state, Mexico, 2010.

We studied serotypes circulating dengue virus (DENV) cases, entomological Breteau index, rain-fall index and epidemiology of groups affected during the 2010 outbreak in Nuevo Leon, Mexico. From 2,271 positive cases, 94% were dengue classic and 6% dengue hemorrhagic fever; DENV1 was mainly isolated (99%) (Central-American lineage of American-African-genotype). We found correlation between two environmental phenomena (Increment of rainfall and vector-indexes) (p ≤ 0.05) with epidemiological, clinical and risk of DENV-1 ongoing transmission.

Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda

For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on main crop products in Rwanda. Some rainfall data was infilled for the period of 1926-2013. It was done using the monitoring data of a neighbor weather station with relatively the same elevation above sea level and with a monitoring record of no less than 40 years. The neighboring station with the best correlation was selected for the infilling. The missing rainfall data was infilled for all the stations with resulting regression coefficients ranging from 0.55 to 0.80. This indicates the acceptability of the performed regression. Also were constructed different-cumulative curves of rainfall and sort out cycles of decline and increment of rainfall. Similar different-cumulative curves were constructed for main crops in Rwanda. Correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between rainfall, arable land expansion, fertilizer use and crop yield. Particularly for Rwandan conditions, the rainfall variations are determinant for the crop yield increment. The intensification of extreme flood’s and, as rule, flooding of agricultural lands in connection with rainfall augmentation was also allocated.

BLRPM을 이용한 서울지점 시단위 강우의 월별 경년변화 연구

본 논문에서는 공간상의 한 점에 대한 연속시간 강우모델로 시간단위의 통계특성을 재현하는데 유용하다고 알려진 BLRPM(Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model)을 이용하여, 측우기 자료를 포함하는 서울지점의 일강우 자료를 분해하고 지속시간별로 집성하여 모의된 시단위 단기 강우의 정량적 장기변화 특성을 분석해 보았다. 모의자료의 전이확률과 발생빈도 분석결과, 측우기 관측계열(CWK)에 비해 근대 우량계 관측계열(MRG)의 무강우 지속기간은 길어지고 강우지속기간은 짧아졌음을 알 수 있다. 이는 과거에 비해 근래의 강우지속기간이 짧아졌음을 의미하고, 근래 강우량의 양적증가와 같이 고려해 보면 근래의 강우강도가 과거보다 매우 높아졌음을 증명해 준다. 1960년대 전후로 구분한 자료계열(BCC와 ACC)에 대하여 지속시간별 모의 강우량의 평균과 분산의 비(증감률)를 월별로 비교한 결과, 전반적으로 9월이 증가의 정도가 가장 컸고 8월도 비교적 큰 증가 경향을 보였다. 그러나 6월은 오히려 약간 감소한 경향을 나타냈다. In this study, Quantative long-term change characteristics of generated hourly short-term rainfall were analyzed through the disaggration of daily rainfall which are include Chukwooki rainfall of Seoul into hourly rainfall and then re-aggragation of the hourly rainfall by duration. From the analysis of transition probabilities and occurance fequencies of generated rainfall, modern rain gage data set(MRG)'s mean lengths of dry spells are increased and mean lengths of wet spells are decreased compared to Chukwooki data set(CWK). this means that rainfall durations of these days are shorter than past. And rainfall intensities of these days are much increased than past when considered with quantative increment of rainfall. From results of comparisons for the ratios of means and variances of generated durational rainfall which are classified with pre- and post- A.D. 1960, Increasing rates of September are greastest over all and August also shows the great Increasing rate relatively. But June shows the decreasing trend.

The Effect of Rainfall Characteristics and Tillage on Sheet Erosion and Maize Grain Yield in Semiarid Conditions and Granitic Sandy Soils of Zimbabwe

In semiarid regions, rainfall is one of the primary factors affecting soil erosion and crop production under rain-fed agriculture. The study sought to quantify the effect of rainfall characteristics on sheet erosion and maize grain yield under different tillage systems. It was carried out under semiarid conditions and infertile sandy soils of Zimbabwe. Rainfall amount and intensity were recorded every 24 hours, while sheet erosion was measured from four tillage systems (Conventional Tillage (CT), Mulch Ripping (MR), Tied Ridging (TR) and Bare Fallow (BF)). Maize (Zea mays L.) was grown on three tillage systems (CT, MR, and TR). Rainfall amount varied significantly (P&lt;0.001) between seasons (164–994 mm). CT recorded the highest average soil losses (15 t/ha), while MR and TR recorded 1.3 and 1.2 t/ha, respectively. Maize grain yields increased with increasing seasonal rainfall giving yield-responses of 0.9 t/ha (TR) to 1.3 t/ha (MR) for every 100 mm rainfall increment. Overall, treatments didnot differ significantly (P&lt;0.497), except during drier seasons (P&lt;0.025). Regression equations showed that yields can be confidently predicted using rainfall amount and time, withR2values of 0.82 to 0.94. Maize grain yields proved to be mostly dependent on rainfall amount than fertility. The productivity of the soils decreased with increased length of cultivation.

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July–August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965–1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000–2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965–2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%–70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.