Increasing Wind Shear Research Articles

Evaluating the ability of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) to simulate near-surface wind speeds in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

Wind speed is one of the main control factors of wind erosion and dust emissions, which are major problems in arid and semiarid regions of the world. Accurately simulating highly precise hourly wind speeds is critical and cost-efficient for land management decisions with the goal of mitigating wind erosion and land degradation. The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a process-based, daily time-step model that simulates changes in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere. However, to date, relatively few studies have been conducted to test the ability of the WEPS in simulating hourly wind speeds. In this study, the performance of the WEPS model was tested in the Inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW), where wind erosion is a serious problem. Hourly wind speeds were observed and simulated by the WEPS at 13 meteorological stations from 2009 to 2018 using the WEPS hourly wind speed probability histogram. Owing to increasing wind shear, the model is not as precise in reproducing high wind speeds. The WEPS inadequately simulated the hourly wind speeds at six of the 13 stations, with a low index of agreement (d < 0.5). The complex regional topography may be one of the reasons for this lack of agreement, because the WEPS’s performance of interpolation relies on spatial distances and surface complexity. Therefore, we validated the model using another wind-speed database to eliminate the impact of spatial interpolation. The performance of the WEPS was improved after removing the impact of spatial interpolation, producing d values > 0.5 at nine of the 13 stations. Our results suggest that the WEPS can accurately simulate hourly wind speeds and assess wind erosion in the absence of interpolation, whereas the model may be uncertain when invoking spatial interpolation. Some evidence also suggests that the model may have a tendency to underestimate observed hourly wind speeds. Pragmatically, this suggests that model users should consider the possibility that WEPS may underestimate wind erosion risk in the iPNW and plan implementation of conservation practices accordingly.

Linkage between surface energy balance non‐closure and horizontal asymmetric turbulent transport

AbstractA number of studies have reported that the traditional eddy covariance (EC) method generally underestimated vertical turbulent fluxes, leading to an outstanding non‐closure problem of the surface energy balance (SEB). Although it is recognized that the enlarged surface energy imbalance frequently coincides with the increasing wind shear, the role of large eddies in affecting the SEB remains unclear. On analyzing data collected by an EC array, considerable horizontal inhomogeneity of kinematic heat flux is observed. The results show that the combined EC method that incorporates the spatial flux contribution increases the kinematic heat flux by 21% relative to the traditional EC method, improving the SEB closure. Additionally, spectral analysis indicates that large eddies with scales ranging from 0.0005 to 0.01 (in the normalized frequency) mainly account for the horizontal inhomogeneity of kinematic heat flux. Under unstable conditions, this process is operating upon large eddies characterized by enlarged asymmetric turbulent flux transport. With enhanced wind shear, the increment of flux contribution associated with sweeps and ejections becomes disproportionate, contributing to the horizontal inhomogeneity of kinematic heat flux, and thus may explain the increased SEB non‐closure.

Nocturnal thunderstorms in Poland: Environments, synoptic patterns and comparison to diurnal thunderstorms

Forecasting nocturnal thunderstorms, due to (among others) their development from higher atmospheric layers compared to daytime thunderstorms, is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we analyzed more than 2 mln nocturnal cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes and performed synoptic analysis for more than 1000 nights with thunderstorms. That allowed us to inspect synoptic and environmental conditions of nocturnal thunderstorms in Poland, which are relatively frequent (~50% of all CG lightning flashes), especially in the western part, considering even the whole of Europe. The analysis yielded that CG lightning flashes are the most frequent during convergence line and waving front, however, due to the highest medians of MUWMAXSHEAR reaching 600 m2 s−2, waving and the warm front seem to have the highest potential for severe nocturnal thunderstorms. Lower atmospheric instability compared to daytime thunderstorms is compensated by increased wind shear, and thus this environment is favorable for thunderstorms. The threshold of 200 J kg−1 of MUCAPE and 190 m2 s−2 of MUWMAXSHEAR may be applied in distinguishing between lightning and non-lightning situations. Significant overlap between multiple parameters for diurnal and nocturnal convection initiation (CI) demonstrates how difficult is forecasting nocturnal thunderstorms.

The Impacts of Wind Shear on Spatial Variation of the Meteorological Element Field in the Atmospheric Convective Boundary Layer Based on Large Eddy Simulation

As wind shear increases, the quasi-two-dimensional structure of flows becomes more significant in the convective boundary layer (CBL), indicating that wind shear plays an essential role in the variation of the field of atmospheric flow. Therefore, sensitive numerical experiments based on Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques were conducted to comprehensively investigate the effects of wind shear on the spatial variations in the velocity and potential temperature (θ) horizontal fields. Under the constant surface heat flux condition, the main findings are summarized. Firstly, in the CBL, the variances of the streamwise velocity (u), cross-stream velocity (v), and θ enhance as wind shear increases, whereas the variance of vertical velocity (w) is insensitive to wind shear. Secondly, in the CBL, with increasing wind shear, low-wavenumber Power Spectrum Densities (PSDs) of u, v, w, and θ increase significantly, suggesting that the increasing wind shear always enhances the large-scale motions of the atmosphere (i.e., low-wavenumber PSD). Therefore, it is more likely that some mesoscale weather processes will be triggered. Thirdly, generally, in the high-wavenumber range, with increasing wind shear, the PSDs of u, v, and θ increase slightly, whereas the PSD of w decreases slightly. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the role of wind shear in the spatial variations of the horizontal fields of meteorological elements under the same conditions of surface heat flux.

Mesoscale impact of the sea surface on the performance of offshore wind farms

The impact of the ocean on the performance of offshore wind farms is a challenging study in the wind energy field. In the present study, by coupling a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), with a sea surface model and a refined wind farm parameterization, a systematic atmosphere-sea surface-wind farm simulation method is established. The question of how the ocean-atmosphere interaction changes the wake effect and power output of wind farms based on the method is explored. The results show that the momentum deficit due to the operating wind turbines is remarkable, and the wind speed deficit has a strong horizontal diffusion on a sea surface. Wake from the offshore wind farm is prone to mix and extends with a shorter length than that on the flat land. The wake mixing enhances the interference from upwind to downwind turbines, resulting in the power outputs of downwind turbines being decreased by 10%. Besides, the increasing wind shear due to the ocean waves decreases the wind power by around 3.5%. Accordingly, it is significant for applying such a coupled air-sea surface-wind farm simulation method when assessing the offshore wind farm performance and the impact of the wind farms on the marine atmospheric boundary layer.

Classifying Mixing Regimes in Ponds and Shallow Lakes

AbstractLakes are classified by thermal mixing regimes, with shallow waterbodies historically categorized as continuously mixing systems. Yet, recent studies demonstrate extended summertime stratification in ponds, underscoring the need to reassess thermal classifications for shallow waterbodies. In this study, we examined the summertime thermal dynamics of 34 ponds and shallow lakes across temperate North America and Europe to categorize and identify the drivers of different mixing regimes. We identified three mixing regimes: rarely (n = 18), intermittently (n = 10), and often (n = 6) mixed, where waterbodies mixed an average of 2%, 26%, and 75% of the study period, respectively. Waterbodies in the often mixed category were larger (≥4.17 ha) and stratification weakened with increased wind shear stress, characteristic of “shallow lakes.” In contrast, smaller waterbodies, or “ponds,” mixed less frequently, and stratification strengthened with increased shortwave radiation. Shallow ponds (&lt;0.74 m) mixed intermittently, with daytime stratification often breaking down overnight due to convective cooling. Ponds ≥0.74 m deep were rarely or never mixed, likely due to limited wind energy relative to the larger density gradients associated with slightly deeper water columns. Precipitation events weakened stratification, even causing short‐term mixing (hours to days) in some sites. By examining a broad set of shallow waterbodies, we show that mixing regimes are highly sensitive to very small differences in size and depth, with potential implications for ecological and biogeochemical processes. Ultimately, we propose a new framework to characterize the variable mixing regimes of ponds and shallow lakes.

Particle-filter-based volcanic ash emission inversion applied to a hypothetical sub-Plinian Eyjafjallajökull eruption using the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations (ESIAS-chem) version 1.0

Abstract. A particle-filter-based inversion system is presented, which enables us to derive time- and altitude-resolved volcanic ash emission fluxes along with its uncertainty. The system assimilates observations of volcanic ash column mass loading as retrieved from geostationary satellites. It aims to estimate the temporally varying emission profile endowed with error margins. In addition, we analyze the dependency of our estimate on wind field characteristics, notably vertical shear, within variable observation intervals. Thus, the proposed system addresses the special challenge of analyzing the vertical profile of volcanic ash clouds given only 2D high temporal-resolution column mass loading data as retrieved by geostationary satellites. The underlying method rests on a linear combination of height–time emission finite elements of arbitrary resolution, each of which is assigned to a model run subject to ensemble-based space–time source inversion. Employing a modular concept, this setup builds the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations (ESIAS-chem). It comprises a particle smoother in combination with a discrete-grid ensemble extension of the Nelder–Mead minimization method. The ensemble version of the EURopean Air pollution Dispersion – Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) is integrated into ESIAS-chem but can be replaced by other models. As initial validation of ESIAS-chem, the system is applied to simulated artificial observations of both ash-contaminated and ash-free atmospheric columns using identical-twin experiments. Thus, in this idealized initial performance test the underlying meteorological uncertainty is neglected. The inversion system is applied to two notional sub-Plinian eruptions of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland, with strong ash emission changes with time and injection heights. It demonstrates the ability of ESIAS-chem to retrieve the volcanic ash emission fluxes from the assimilation of column mass loading data only. However, the analyzed emission profiles strongly differ in their levels of accuracy depending of the strength of wind shear conditions. While the error is only 10 %–20 % for the estimated emission fluxes under strong wind conditions, it increases up to 60 % under weak wind shear conditions. In case of increasing wind shear, the performance of the analysis may benefit from extending the assimilation window, in which new observations potentially contribute valuable information to the analysis system. For our test cases using an artificial volcanic eruption, we found an assimilation window length of 18 h, i.e., 10 h after the eruption terminated, to be sufficient for analyzing the extent and location of the artificial ash cloud. In the performed test cases, the analysis ensemble predicts the location of high volcanic ash column mass loading in the atmosphere with a very high probability of &gt; 95 %. Additionally, the analysis ensemble is able to provide a vertically resolved probability map of high volcanic ash concentrations to a high accuracy for both high and weak wind shear conditions.

Examining the Relationship between Tropopause Polar Vortices and Tornado Outbreaks

AbstractMid-latitude jet streaks are known to produce conditions broadly supportive of tornado outbreaks, including forcing for large-scale ascent, increased wind shear, and decreased static stability. Although many processes may initiate a jet streak, we focus here on the development of jet maxima by interactions between the polar jet and tropopause polar vortices (TPVs). Originating from the Arctic, TPVs are long-lived circulations on the tropopause, which can be advected into the mid-latitudes. We hypothesize that when these vortices interact with the jet, they may contribute supplemental forcing for ascent and shear to tornado outbreaks, assuming other environmental conditions supportive of tornado development exist. Using a case set of significant tornado outbreak days from three states—Oklahoma, Illinois, and Alabama—we show that a vortex-jet streak structure is present (within 1250 km) in around two-thirds of tornado outbreaks. These vortices are commonly Arctic in origin (i.e., are TPVs) and are advected through a consistent path of entry into the mid-latitudes in the week before the outbreak, moving across the Northern Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska before turning equatorward along the North American coast. These vortices are shown to be more intense and longer-lived than average. We further demonstrate that statistically significant patterns of wind shear, quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent, and low static stability are present over the outbreak regions on the synoptic scale. In addition, we find that TPVs associated with tornadic events occur most often in the spring and are associated with greater low-level moisture when compared to non-tornadic TPV cases.

New Insights into Wind Shear Effects on Entrainment in Convective Boundary Layers Using Conditional Analysis

Abstract Conventional analysis has shown that strong wind shear enhances the entrainment buoyancy flux in the convective boundary layer. By conditioning the entrainment zone into regions of turbulent (i.e., strongly vortical) and nonturbulent (i.e., weakly vortical) flow, some unexpected aspects of this process are revealed. It is found that turbulent regions contribute the most to the entrainment buoyancy flux, but that as wind shear increases, the magnitude of the buoyancy flux in turbulent regions remains approximately constant, or even decreases, despite substantially stronger buoyancy fluctuations. The reason is that the correlation between buoyancy and vertical velocity fluctuations decreases with increasing wind shear, to the extent that it compensates the stronger buoyancy fluctuations. In free convection, this correlation is high because the vertical velocity is mainly determined by the buoyancy force acting in the same direction. Under strong shear conditions, buoyancy is no longer the only external source of vertical velocity fluctuations and their correlation consequently decreases. Hence, shear enhancement of the buoyancy flux in the entrainment zone is primarily due to an increase of the turbulent area fraction, rather than a change of flux inside the turbulent regions.

Multiscale modeling of the atmospheric environment over a forest canopy

Vegetation constitutes one of the fundamental types of land use on Earth. The presence of trees in urban areas can decrease local winds and exchange sensible and latent heat with the surrounding environments, thus exerting notable influences on the urban microenvironment. A better understanding of the turbulent transfer of momentum and scalars around vegetation canopy could significantly contribute to improvement of the urban environment. This work develops a large-eddy simulation (LES) method that is applicable to model the flow and scalar transport over the forest canopy. We study the atmospheric flow over complex forested areas under typical weather conditions by coupling LES to the mesoscale model. Models of radiation and energy balance have been developed with explicit treatment of the vegetation canopy. By examining the flow over a forest canopy under a range of stability conditions, we found that buoyancy enhances or suppresses turbulent mixing in unstable or stable atmosphere respectively, with decreasing or increasing wind shear, respectively. From the multiscale modeling of the Beijing Olympic Forest Park, the present coupling scheme proves to better resolve the diurnal variations in wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity over complex urban terrains. The coupling scheme is superior to the traditional mesoscale model in terms of wind field simulation. This is mainly because the coupling scheme not only takes the influences of external mesoscale flow into consideration, but also resolves the heterogeneous urban surface at a fine scale by downscaling, thus better reproducing the complex flow and turbulent transport in the urban roughness sublayer.

Examination of Surface Wind Asymmetry in Tropical Cyclones over the Northwest Pacific Ocean Using SMAP Observations

Tropical cyclone (TC) surface wind asymmetry is investigated by using wind data acquired from an L-band passive microwave radiometer onboard the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite between 2015 and 2017 over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) Ocean. The azimuthal asymmetry degree is defined as the factor by which the maximum surface wind speed is greater than the mean wind speed at the radius of the maximum wind (RMW). We examined storm motion and environmental wind shear effects on the degree of TC surface wind asymmetry under different intensity conditions. Results show that the surface wind asymmetry degree significantly decreases with increasing TC intensity, but increases with increasing TC translation speed, for tropical storm and super typhoon strength TCs; whereas no such relationship is found for typhoon and severe typhoon strength TCs. However, the degree of surface wind asymmetry increases with increasing wind shear magnitude for all TC intensity categories. The relative strength between the storm translation speed and the wind shear magnitude has the potential to affect the location of the maximum wind speed. Moreover, the maximum degree of wind asymmetry is found when the direction of the TC motion is nearly equal to the direction of the wind shear.

Enhanced Temperature‐Humidity Similarity Caused by Entrainment Processes With Increased Wind Shear

AbstractA number of studies already suggested that entrainment of warm/dry air from aloft degrades the similarity between air temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL). Less is known about entrainment of cool/dry air on the ASL T‐q similarity. Using eddy covariance measurements over a large inland water surface, enhanced T‐q similarity with increased friction velocity (u*) was measured during daytime unstable conditions. Explaining this enhancement is the main goal of this work. Cool/dry air masses originating and advecting from land set the upper boundary condition on a quasi‐equilibrated internal boundary layer embedding the warm/moist ASL over water. With increased u*, the entrainment velocity (dhI/dt ∝ u*) increases, thereby enhancing entrainment of cool/dry air originating from land, where t is time and hI is the internal boundary layer depth. By analyzing the scale‐dependent (spectral) correlation coefficients, the enhanced T‐q similarity with increased u* was shown to originate from spectral correlation coefficients in the middle‐ to low‐frequency ranges (large eddies ≫ z, the distance from the surface). With further increases in u*, similarity between T and q within large eddies was further enhanced and phase differences between T and q was reduced. Quadrant analysis showed large increases in flux and time fractions of downward large cool/dry eddies with increasing u*. These results provide evidence that enhanced entrainment of synchronized, large cool/dry eddies was a primary cause for the increased T‐q similarity with increasing u*.

Electrification and Lightning in Idealized Simulations of a Hurricane-Like Vortex Subject to Wind Shear and Sea Surface Temperature Cooling

Abstract Relationships between intensity fluctuations, cloud microphysics, lightning variations, and electrical structures within idealized tropical cyclones are investigated with the cloud-resolving Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS). An initial strong tropical cyclone is subjected to either steady-state control conditions (CTRL), increased wind shear (SHEAR), or a reduction in sea surface temperature (SST). In CTRL, nearly all the lightning (&amp;gt;95%) occurred in the outer region (100 &amp;lt; r ≤ 300 km) and was overall very episodic in the inner core (r ≤ 100 km), consistent with observations. The inner-core updrafts were weaker and experienced greater depletion of cloud water by warm rain processes, which, in contrast to the deeper updrafts in the rainband convection, reduced the mixed-phase cloud depth and confined the bulk of the charging and lightning initiations to lower levels. Notably, larger flash rates were produced in the asymmetric inner core of the SHEAR case, with the majority of the flashes located in the downshear left quadrant, consistent with prior observational works. In contrast to CTRL, the more vigorous inner-core convection in SHEAR resulted in the formation of a prominent negative charge region and enhanced production of negative ground flashes. With a nearly identical filling rate as SHEAR, the introduction of cooler sea surface temperature in the SST case caused lightning activity to fade rapidly in both the inner core and rainbands.

The tropical cyclone response to changing wind shear using the method of time‐varying point‐downscaling

AbstractPrevious studies using idealized numerical simulations to understand the tropical cyclone (TC) response to time‐varying wind shear have applied instantaneous changes in the TC environment. This was typically accomplished by pausing the simulation, constructing a new environmental vertical wind profile, rebalancing the mass field, and then restarting the simulation. A new modeling framework allows for smoothly transitioning environmental wind states: time‐varying point‐downscaling (TVPDS). TVPDS uses large‐scale relaxation to smoothly transition between different vertical profiles of environmental wind (and/or temperature and moisture) while coordinating the point‐downscaling method such that the environment remains in balance. TVPDS simulations of quasi steady state, moderately intense (∼50 m s−1) TCs show that the response to increasing wind shear is a steady reduction in intensity without recovery to the preshear intensity. These results, which are consistent with the typical evolution of real TCs, stand in contrast to some previous studies that found a recovery to prestorm intensity after an initial weakening due to increased shear. TVPDS simulations also show that the rate at which the TC weakens depends on how rapidly the environment transitions to greater shear. Analyses of surface fluxes, regions of convection, and other variables are presented to determine how time‐varying shear affects TCs. Finally, TVPDS simulations of TCs transitioning from environments characterized by high‐shear into low‐shear environments show that a similar but opposite response occurs.

Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations.

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms-mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)-poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in 'extreme' daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models.

Identification of atmospheric boundary layer thickness using doppler radar datas and WRF - ARW model in Merauke

In the synoptic scale, one of the important meteorological parameter is the atmospheric boundary layer. Aside from being a supporter of the parameters in weather and climate models, knowing the thickness of the layer of the atmosphere can help identify aerosols and the strength of the vertical mixing of pollutants in it. The vertical wind profile data from C-band Doppler radar Mopah-Merauke which is operated by BMKG through Mopah-Merauke Meteorological Station can be used to identify the peak of Atmospheric Boundaryu Layer (ABL). ABL peak marked by increasing wind shear over the layer blending. Samples in January 2015 as a representative in the wet and in July 2015 as the representation of a dry month, shows that ABL heights using WRF models show that in July (sunny weather) ABL height values higher than in January (cloudy)

The effects of moist entropy and moisture budgets on tropical cyclone development

AbstractThis paper examines the moist entropy and moisture budgets in tropical cyclones, as well as their relation to tropical cyclone's development. This analysis focuses on the dropsonde data collected during Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel project and the accompanying satellite data. Two tropical cyclones of interest are Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2013) and Hurricane Edouard (2014). There were three research flights into Gabrielle (2013), during its nondeveloping and decaying stages. Edouard (2014) was visited four times in different stages of its life cycle, twice during the intensification and twice during the decay. Also, we extended our analysis on the larger data set, consisting of 11 nonintensifying and 12 intensifying systems. Our study shows that the moist entropy tends to increase during intensification and decrease during nonintensifying stages. On the other hand, the moisture budget relates better to the tropical cyclone's current intensity than its development. The sign of the moist entropy tendency depends on the ability of surface fluxes and irreversible moist entropy generation to overcome lateral export of moist entropy and loss due to radiative cooling. Edouard's decay during the last research flight was likely the result of increasing wind shear and low sea surface temperatures. During its decay, Gabrielle had strong column‐integrated lateral export of moist entropy and drying between 1 and 4 km height. This is probably the consequence of a dry environment at multiple levels, amplified by a warm and dry anomaly left behind by previous convective activity.

Roles of wind shear at different vertical levels: Cloud system organization and properties

AbstractUnderstanding critical processes that contribute to the organization of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is important for accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions. In this study, we investigate the effects of wind shear at different vertical levels on the organization and properties of convective systems using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with spectral bin microphysics. Based on a control run for a MCS with weak wind shear (Ctrl), we find that increasing wind shear at the lower troposphere (L‐shear) leads to a more organized quasi‐line convective system. Strong wind shear in the middle troposphere (M‐shear) tends to produce large vorticity and form a mesocyclone circulation and an isolated strong storm that leans toward supercellular structure. By increasing wind shear at the upper vertical levels only (U‐shear), the organization of the convection is not changed much, but the convective intensity is weakened. Increasing wind shear in the middle troposphere for the selected case results in a significant drying, and the drying is more significant when conserving moisture advection at the lateral boundaries, contributing to the suppressed convective strength and precipitation relative to Ctrl. Precipitation in the L‐shear and U‐shear does not change much from Ctrl. Evident changes of cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties in the strong wind shear cases are mainly due to large changes in convective organization and water vapor. The insights obtained from this study help us better understand the major factors contributing to convective organization and precipitation.

An Observational Case Study of Persistent Fog and Comparison with an Ensemble Forecast Model

We present a study of a persistent case of fog and use the observations to evaluate the UK Met Office ensemble model. The fog appeared to form initially in association with small patches of low-level stratus and spread rapidly across southern England during 11 December 2012, persisting for 24 h. The low visibility and occurrence of fog associated with the event was poorly forecast. Observations show that the surprisingly rapid spreading of the layer was due to a circulation at the fog edge, whereby cold cloudy air subsided into and mixed with warmer adjacent clear air. The resulting air was saturated, and hence the fog layer grew rapidly outwards from its edge. Measurements of fog-droplet deposition made overnight show that an average of 12 g m\(^{-2}\) h\(^{-1}\) was deposited but that the liquid water content remained almost constant, indicating that further liquid was condensing at a similar rate to the deposition, most likely due to the slow cooling. The circulation at the fog edge was also present during its dissipation, by which time the fog top had lowered by 150 m. During this period the continuing circulation at the fog edge, and increasing wind shear at fog top, acted to dissipate the fog by creating mixing with, by then, the drier adjacent and overlying air. Comparisons with a new, high resolution Met Office ensemble model show that this type of case remains challenging to simulate. Most ensemble members successfully simulated the formation and persistence of low stratus cloud in the region, but produced too much cloud initially overnight, which created a warm bias. During the daytime, ensemble predictions that had produced fog lifted it into low stratus, whilst in reality the fog remained present all day. Various aspects of the model performance are discussed further.

Response of Atmospheric Convection to Vertical Wind Shear: Cloud-System-Resolving Simulations with Parameterized Large-Scale Circulation. Part I: Specified Radiative Cooling

Abstract It is well known that vertical wind shear can organize deep convective systems and greatly extend their lifetimes. Much less is known about the influence of shear on the bulk properties of tropical convection in statistical equilibrium. To address the latter question, the authors present a series of cloud-resolving simulations on a doubly periodic domain with parameterized large-scale dynamics based on the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation. The horizontal-mean horizontal wind is relaxed strongly in these simulations toward a simple unidirectional linear vertical shear profile in the troposphere. The strength and depth of the shear layer are varied as control parameters. Surface enthalpy fluxes are prescribed. The results fall in two distinct regimes. For weak wind shear, time-averaged rainfall decreases with shear and convection remains disorganized. For larger wind shear, rainfall increases with shear, as convection becomes organized into linear mesoscale systems. This nonmonotonic dependence of rainfall on shear is observed when the imposed surface fluxes are moderate. For larger surface fluxes, convection in the unsheared basic state is already strongly organized, but increasing wind shear still leads to increasing rainfall. In addition to surface rainfall, the impacts of shear on the parameterized large-scale vertical velocity, convective mass fluxes, cloud fraction, and momentum transport are also discussed.