An Observational Case Study of Persistent Fog and Comparison with an Ensemble Forecast Model

Abstract

We present a study of a persistent case of fog and use the observations to evaluate the UK Met Office ensemble model. The fog appeared to form initially in association with small patches of low-level stratus and spread rapidly across southern England during 11 December 2012, persisting for 24 h. The low visibility and occurrence of fog associated with the event was poorly forecast. Observations show that the surprisingly rapid spreading of the layer was due to a circulation at the fog edge, whereby cold cloudy air subsided into and mixed with warmer adjacent clear air. The resulting air was saturated, and hence the fog layer grew rapidly outwards from its edge. Measurements of fog-droplet deposition made overnight show that an average of 12 g m\(^{-2}\) h\(^{-1}\) was deposited but that the liquid water content remained almost constant, indicating that further liquid was condensing at a similar rate to the deposition, most likely due to the slow cooling. The circulation at the fog edge was also present during its dissipation, by which time the fog top had lowered by 150 m. During this period the continuing circulation at the fog edge, and increasing wind shear at fog top, acted to dissipate the fog by creating mixing with, by then, the drier adjacent and overlying air. Comparisons with a new, high resolution Met Office ensemble model show that this type of case remains challenging to simulate. Most ensemble members successfully simulated the formation and persistence of low stratus cloud in the region, but produced too much cloud initially overnight, which created a warm bias. During the daytime, ensemble predictions that had produced fog lifted it into low stratus, whilst in reality the fog remained present all day. Various aspects of the model performance are discussed further.