Increase In Trading Volume Research Articles

Unveiling the causal nexus between Saudi’s seaborne trade and economy: evidence from an ARDL model

An economy’s primary objective is to foster high economic growth, ultimately enhancing the well-being of its citizens. Recent economic strategies have increasingly emphasized trade-oriented policies to achieve this goal. This study delves into the nexus between Saudi seaborne trade (measured in tons) and gross domestic product (GDP), aiming to determine any causal relationship between these economic variables. Using datasets from the Saudi Central Bank and the General Authority of Statistics, this research employs rigorous unit root, cointegration, and causality tests to find the intricate interplay between trade and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The empirical analysis highlights a robust long-term relationship between Saudi GDP and seaborne trade, suggesting cointegration. Specifically, the findings reveal a significant impact of economic growth on seaborne trade, as indicated by a trade elasticity of 1.08, which implies that changes in GDP yield a substantial shift in trade. For instance, a 1% increase in GDP corresponds to an approximate 1.08% increase in trade volume. The error correction mechanism also illustrates the dynamic adjustment process: deviations of Saudi seaborne trade and economic growth from equilibrium are corrected by 61% and 43%, in the subsequent year. Furthermore, Granger causality tests unveil bidirectional causality between GDP and trade, elucidating that economic growth changes precede trade volume alterations and vice versa. Thus, fostering international trade not only stimulates income but also bolsters the domestic economy of Saudi Arabia.

The intensity of regional food trade among the Western Balkan countries during periods of crisis

This study explores the intensity of food trade among the Western Balkan (WB) countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) during periods of crisis, emphasizing the impact of COVID-19 and the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on regional trade dynamics. The impact of this crisis was measured over three analyzed years: 2018, representing a reference year for comparison, then 2020 as the year affected by COVID-19, and 2022, being affected by the pandemic as well as the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. All data collected are from the “Trade Statistics for International Business Development Database”. Conclusions about the intensity of exchange of agricultural and food products within the WB region were obtained by calculating Regional Intensity of Trade of Export (RITE) and Regional Intensity of Trade of Import (RITI). Higher values than 1 indicate intensity in trade or dominance of trade in specific products with a particular region compared with the trade with the world. In the case of trade among the WB countries, the COVID-19 crisis did not affect the increase in trade volume. However, there was an increase in intra-regional trade by about 50% when compared with 2020 and 2022. The RITE coefficients for all countries except Albania were greater than 1, indicating intensified export of agricultural and food products to the WB region compared with their global export. The RITI index is very important in crisis, as it somewhat answers the question of who "feeds" the country during crises. All WB countries had the RITI indices greater than 1, indicating a higher intensity of food imports from the region compared with the world. According to this research, the RIT coefficients measured generally declined in the years of crises, meaning that the countries shifted their export focus to other regions but still the most significant foreign and intense trade partners in agricultural and food products were countries from the region.

The Brussels effect in Ankara: the case of climate policy

Abstract Turkey’s Europeanization process provides a particularly interesting case study of the extra-jurisdictional impact of European Union (EU) law, both through policy convergence and through the so-called Brussels effect. Formally, Turkey must adopt certain EU rules due to its status as an EU candidate country, but its candidacy process has been lengthy and uncertain, resulting in partial and uneven adoption of EU rules. Nevertheless, EU-style policymaking has persisted in various policy areas, including environmental and climate policy. This paper aims to analyze the convergence of climate change policies between the EU and Turkey by employing multidimensional scaling, a method that enables the visualization and examination of the connectivity and intensity of cooperation between states. For the period from 2007 to 2023, our comparative analysis demonstrates that policy divergence occurs when the EU’s share of Turkey’s total trade decreases and when political challenges are experienced. On the other hand, periods of policy convergence coincide with periods of increased trade volume and expanded trade opportunities. The results suggest that through its market size and regulatory capacity, the EU exerts soft power which forces Turkey to align its climate policies with the EU to protect and maintain its competitiveness in the European marketplace.

Mastering Market Movements: Technical Indicators in IDX30 Stock Selection

This study aims to analyze the role of trading volume, foreign money flows, and technical chart patterns in shaping investment decisions for IDX30 companies. Utilizing descriptive quantitative research, data was collected from Stockbit and IPOT, focusing on stock price charts, trading volume, and broker summaries from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2022. The findings reveal that purchase decisions were made when stock prices broke out of a chart pattern, accompanied by increased trading volume and foreign accumulation. Conversely, sell decisions occurred when stock prices broke down from a pattern, followed by increased volume and foreign distribution. These results underscore the importance of technical analysis in guiding informed investment decisions, helping investors avoid irrational practices and potential losses. The study highlights the practical need for investors to integrate technical indicators, such as volume and foreign flows, into their decision-making processes to enhance investment outcomes.

Religious Investor Sentiment, Shariah Compliance Impact, and Theological Risk: Evidence from Bursa Malaysia

This study examines the financial implications of religious restrictions by analyzing how changes in the Shariah compliance status of stocks affect their price and trading volume. Employing the market model in an event study approach and using data from Malaysian firms between 2000 and 2016, the study focuses on 30 announcements from the Security Commission Malaysia’s List of Shariah Compliant Securities (LSCS), resulting in 370 additions and 284 deletions from the compliance list. The findings indicate that the inclusion of stocks in the compliance list generates longterm demand driven by Islamic institutional and Muslim retail investors, leading to a permanent increase in abnormal returns and trading volume. Conversely, the removal of stocks from the compliance list induces short-term negative abnormal returns and increased trading volume, reflecting selling pressure. These results contribute to understanding the financial consequences of religious restrictions, highlighting the influence of Shariah compliance on stock market performance and investor behaviour.

Option trading and equity price efficiency

This paper presents evidence that the reduction in option tick size enhances equity price efficiency. To address the endogeneity issue, I employ an exogenous event, namely the Penny Pilot program. The findings indicate that option trading mitigates equity misvaluation, reduces price delay, accelerates the incorporation of future earnings into equity prices, and eliminates the well-known Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD). The pilot program significantly increases trading volume and reduces trading costs during the pilot period. Furthermore, the effect of options-to-stock volume on future stock returns is stronger in firms with high short-sale costs. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that informed trading boosts trading volume in the options market and integrates information from the options market into equity prices, thereby enhancing equity price efficiency.

The impact of cryptocurrency-related cyberattacks on return, volatility, and trading volume of cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets

We investigate the impact of cryptocurrency-related cyberattacks on the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets. The dataset consists of historical cyberattack data and trading data for twenty cryptocurrencies, three cryptocurrency uncertainty indices, five payment companies, four stock indices, a commodity index, and gold. We find that cyberattacks are associated with negative returns, increased volatility, and increased trading volume not only for the cryptocurrencies but also for the payment companies, the financial and technology sectors, and the general stock market. However, the impact of cyberattacks on cryptocurrencies has been decreasing over time, while the impact on payment companies and the financial sector has been increasing. Moreover, gold prices have shown a positive response to these cyberattacks. These results underscore the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures in the fintech sector and may inform both policymakers and market participants.

Integration of Technology and Regulations for Safe and Efficient Marine Logistics

Maritime logistics is at the heart of global trade, with nearly 90% of the world's cargo transported by sea. However, the industry faces significant challenges in ensuring safety, operational efficiency, and environmental sustainability amidst increasing trade volumes and demands to reduce carbon emissions. Integration of modern technology with existing regulatory frameworks is key to improving maritime logistics performance while complying with safety and environmental standards. This paper explores various current technologies that can be applied, such as real-time ship tracking systems with the Internet of Things (IoT) and wireless communications, automation of loading and unloading processes using robotics and artificial intelligence (AI), as well as the use of big data and predictive analytics for optimization route and fleet management. These technologies have the potential to increase supply chain visibility, and time efficiency, reduce human error, and optimize resources. On the other hand, international regulatory frameworks such as the Convention on the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) and the Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), as well as national and regional regulations related to shipping safety, the marine environment, maritime security, and labor, must be adhered to in adopting new technology.

Impact of exchange rates, Inflation, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness on exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia

Globalization and economic integration have an impact on increasing trade volume and economic growth in various countries, especially those that are open in their economies. This situation also provides ease of capital mobility between countries, which makes investment not only rely on domestic investment but also on foreign direct investment. Exchange rates and inflation also affect export growth, imports, and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of exchange rate, inflation, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and economic openness on export and import growth. This study used time series data during the period 1980–2021, sourced from UNCTAD, ASYB, and Indonesian Central Bank (BI). The analysis model used is multiple linear regression with the help of EViews software, which first tests classical assumptions so that the regression results are Best Linier Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The results show that foreign direct investment and government spending can significantly increase the rate of exports and imports. Meanwhile, the depreciating rupiah against the US dollar cannot encourage an increase in both exports and imports. Furthermore, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness can significantly increase economic growth. The other variables, net exports and inflation, have no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth rate.

Trading Gamification and Investor Behavior

We study the effect of gamification on retail traders’ behavior using a randomized online experiment. Participants with lower financial literacy prefer platforms with hedonic gamification elements, such as confetti and achievement badges. On average, hedonic gamification increases trading volume by 5.17%. However, the difference in trading activity between gamified and nongamified platforms is driven primarily by self-selection (70%) rather than gamification (30%). Participants who prefer hedonic gamification exhibit noisy trading strategies, whereas those favoring nongamified platforms display stronger contrarian behavior. Further, price trend notifications enhance learning for investors with accurate beliefs, but they reinforce trading mistakes for those with incorrect beliefs. This paper has been This paper was accepted by Jean-Edouard Colliard for the special issue on the human-algorithm connection. Funding: P. Chapkovski acknowledges funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Germany’s Excellence Strategy—EXC 2126/1-390838866]. M. Khapko and M. Zoican acknowledge the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada [Insight Development Grant 430-2018-00125] and the Canadian Securities Institute Research Foundation [research grant]. M. Zoican acknowledges financial support from the Quantitative Management Research Initiative (QMI) under the aegis of the Fondation du Risque, a joint initiative by Université Paris-Dauphine, l’École Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Administration ParisTech, and LFIS, France. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02650 .

Econometric Analysis of China-Egypt Bilateral Relations: Trade, Investment, and Economic Cooperation

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric analysis of the bilateral relations between China and Egypt, focusing on trade dynamics, investment flows, and broader economic cooperation. Utilising a range of statistical methods and data from 2000 to 2023, the study examines how the evolving geopolitical landscape has influenced economic ties between the two nations. Special attention is given to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its impact on bilateral trade and investment. The analysis reveals a significant increase in bilateral trade volume, with China emerging as a key investor in various sectors of the Egyptian economy. Furthermore, the paper explores the socio-economic effects of these relations on local industries, employment, and regional development in Egypt. The study also addresses the challenges and opportunities presented by this partnership, providing policy recommendations for enhancing mutual economic benefits and sustainable development.

Does Japanese Manufacturing FDI in ASEAN5 Facilitate Trade?

manufacturing companies, but their expansion slowed in the early 2000s due to the rise of China. However, since the 2010s, amid tensions between Japan and China, as well as between the US and China, the ASEAN region has gained attention as an alternative destination. The paper analyzes the impact of changes in Japanese FDI in the manufacturing sector on trade between Japan and target countries. The analysis focuses on FDI in all 12 sectors of manufacturing in the five major ASEAN countries from 2007 to 2019 and estimates using gravity equations. Given the importance of distance variables in gravity equations, a random effects model is used for estimation. The results indicate that Japanese FDI in the transportation equipment, electronic equipment, and chemical and pharmaceutical industries had a positive correlation with trade with ASEAN5 countries, but no significant results were found in other sectors. Moreover, in transportation equipment and chemical and pharmaceutical industries, the import effect was greater than the export effect. With the Japanese government providing subsidies to manufacturing companies relocating production hubs to ASEAN from 2020 onwards, an increase in trade volume between these countries and Japan is expected in the future.

СУЧАСНИЙ СТАН, ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ТА ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ СПІВРОБІТНИЦТВА УКРАЇНИ З КРАЇНАМИ-УЧАСНИЦЯМИ АСЕАН

The purpose of the article is to analyze the main areas of foreign economic cooperation of Ukraine with ASEAN member countries and to determine the future prospects of their interaction. The article examines the trade and economic relations of Ukraine with ASEAN member countries during 2014-2022. An analysis of the volume of trade in goods between the parties is presented, which indicates a gradual increase in trade turnover from 2015 to 2021 and its further reduction in 2022 due to the start of a full-scale war The main categories of export and import of goods between Ukraine and ASEAN member countries in 2022 have been determined, which include grain crops, vegetable fats and oils, telecommunications equipment, metal products, etc. The geographical structure of trade operations was analyzed and the most popular export and import destinations for Ukraine, such as Malaysia and Vietnam, were determined. It is proven that, despite the gradual increase in trade volumes, the level of investment activity between the parties remains low, which is determined by a number of negative factors, including the war with Russia, corruption and the uncertainty of the legal environment in Ukraine. Positive factors that increase the investment attractiveness of Ukraine for the countries of Southeast Asia are considered, in particular, the geopolitical position and the presence of a highly qualified workforce. Based on the data of the National Bank of Ukraine, it was determined that the largest number of investments in Ukraine comes from Singapore, in particular, in enterprises in the fields of industry, trade and agriculture. The existence of significant potential for the development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and ASEAN member countries has been proven. Ways of intensifying bilateral cooperation were proposed, such as the implementation of joint projects in the field of information technology and infrastructure, increasing the volume of Ukrainian exports and the creation of special economic zones. The need to sign trade agreements and expand business ties for the further development of cooperation between Ukraine and ASEAN member countries is highlighted.

The role of investors’ fear in crude oil volatility forecasting

We study whether investors’ fear can predict oil price volatility. The proxies used for investors’ fear are the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), Google searches for “oil price”, and United States Oil Fund (USO) trading volume. In the in-sample analysis, we find that increased OVX, increased Google searches, and increased trading volume predict increased oil price volatility. Additionally, we find bidirectional Granger-causalities between volatility and OVX, volatility and Google searches, and volatility and trading volume. However, results are very different for the out-of-sample forecasts. We incorporate OVX, Google searches for “oil price”, trading volume, and their combinations into commonly used volatility models but find that these variables or their combinations improve none of the models in terms of out-of-sample forecasting.

DYNAMICS OF ROMANIA-CHINA BILATERAL TRADE: A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW

This study explores the evolving bilateral trade between Romania and China from the 20th century to the present, highlighting significant growth and strategic economic cooperation despite global challenges. Initially bound by political alliances and mutual reconstruction efforts post-World War II, the relationship deepened with Romania's shift to a market economy and China's opening-up policy. Analysing trade data from 1992 to 2021, the research reveals an increase in trade volume, especially after 2000, with China maintaining a trade surplus. Key traded goods include machinery, electronics, textiles, and natural resources. Despite challenges, such as geopolitical considerations, the trade relationship offers opportunities for further growth and diversification. The study underscores the potential for enhanced cooperation in sectors like energy, agriculture, and technology, pointing to a promising future for bilateral economic ties between Romania and China.

Investigation of Dynamic Behavior of Piled Pier Structure

Sea transport is preferred because it is safe and economical in countries in the regions that dominate world trade. Approximately 86% of the developing and increasing trade volume is provided by sea transportation. Ports, which are an important pillar of international trade, take an active place in the transportation network for these reasons. In our country, an increase has been observed in the studies on the design of coastal port structures in the last 15 years. In the design of coastal structures, technical approaches and durability are at the forefront, while recently the continuity of the performance of the structures has been taken as a basis. They are exposed to static and dynamic loads throughout their service life. In order to encounter minimum damage due to earthquake effects, an analysis that reflects the behavior under static and dynamic loads and the parameters must be determined correctly. For this purpose, parameter changes were investigated to examine the dynamic behavior of a scaffolding structure. Piles diameters of 600, 800 and 1000 mm and placement spacing of 4D and 8D were considered variable. Analyzes were carried out with Sap 2000, a finite element program. The capacity of the building was determined with pushover analysis and its dynamic performance was evaluated with time history analysis.

Political polarization in financial news

Comparing coverage of the same corporate financial news by the conservative Wall Street Journal and the liberal New York Times, we find strong evidence of political polarization in their reporting on both the intensive and extensive margins of coverage. We show that this politics-induced disagreement in corporate financial news leads to an increase in abnormal trading volume for the most politically extreme firms. Our results highlight a new source of investor disagreement, arising out of polarized reporting of corporate financial news, that generates trade among investors.

A Prediction of Option Price via Two Volatility Computations with Application to a 50ETF Option

Financial derivative trading is integral to stock markets, leading to high option price volatility due to increased trading volume. Determining a reasonable option price is complex and requires extensive research in fields like Economics, Applied Mathematics, and Finance Engineering. The Black-Scholes (BS) equation provides a scientific pricing tool for options by considering five parameters: stock price (S), option strike price (K), risk-free interest rate (r), time to expiration (τ), and volatility (σ). Notably, all model parameters except volatility σ can be directly observed from market data, necessitating the determination of this parameter from historical data when applying the BS model in practice.In this report, we examine two widely used computation methods for volatility. The first method involves a simple statistical calculation of historical data, resulting in the historical volatility (HV). The second method utilizes the BS model in a "backward" manner: given any previous option price and four other parameters, we solve the BS equation to obtain the implied volatility (IV). To determine such an IV parameter, we propose a generalized fixed-point iterative solver for solving a complex nonlinear equation. By employing a well-designed initial guess, we demonstrate that this fixed-point solver achieves global and rapid convergence.The two volatilities lead to different predictions of the option price. This report examines if the BS model accurately predicts the option price using these volatilities. It presents an empirical study on a 50ETF option, where we use t-tests to check the hypothesis and determine the relationship between predicted and actual option prices. The study finds that using implied volatility in the BS model provides significantly more accurate predictions compared to historical volatility.

Evaluating the Benefits of the Current BRI Infrastructure Projects to Thailand

This article examines the dynamics and consequences of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in relation to Thailand’s development plan, focusing on cross-border trade from Thailand to China via the Laos–China Railway. Transboundary regulations and constraints in infrastructure are obstacles impeding economic integration and regional connectivity. Evidently, initiatives such as setting up stations for agricultural inspection and quarantine have not led to increased trade volume via the rail network. Continual efforts to fix infrastructural gaps and promote discourse on regulatory and procedural issues are imperative to fully realise the potential of Thailand–China cross-border trade via railway networks under the BRI framework.

Do Credit Rating Agencies Learn from the Options Market?

Do credit rating agencies (CRAs) learn from the options market? We examine this question by exploring the relation between options trading activity and credit rating accuracy. We find that as options trading volume increases, credit ratings become more responsive to expected credit risk and exhibit greater ability to predict future defaults. We also find that CRAs rely more on the options market as a source of ratings-related information when firm default risk is higher, options trading is more informative, manager-provided information is of lower quality, and firm uncertainty is higher. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity tests, including alternative measures of options trading and credit rating accuracy. We reach similar inferences using various approaches to address endogeneity issues, including difference-in-difference analyses and an instrumental variables approach. Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that CRAs incorporate unique information from the options market into their rating decisions which, in turn, improves credit rating accuracy. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4980 .