Increasing Time Trend Research Articles

Biological effects and physico-chemical properties of extremely diluted aqueous solutions as a function of aging-time

This study concerns the biological effects and physico-chemical variations of extremely diluted solutions (EDS) as a function of aging-time. The biological efficacy of As2O3 at the 45th decimal dilution/succussion (As 45×) was tested in a wheat germination model. Ten trials were carried out from 0 to 12 months after treatment preparation, using wheat seeds (Triticum aestivum L.) of the Pandas variety. Seeds were pre-treated by poisoning with 0.1% As2O3 solution to reduce germination, to allow a better evaluation of treatment effects. The outcome variable was the number of non-germinated seeds after 96 h. The As 45×treatment aged for less than three months did not show a significant effect on wheat germination, whereas when aged for longer (3–12 months) the effect became significant. Concerning the physico-chemical characteristics, specific conductivity of As 45×aged from 0 to 12 months was measured, using nine samples for each date. The results showed a clear increasing time trend of specific conductivity, more evident when considering the last three measurements, which correspond to more than six months of aging. The physico-chemical behavior of EDS strongly supports the significant biological effects observed in a wheat model.

Analysis of extreme temperatures for four sites across Peninsular Spain

Statistical analyses regarding climate studies have often used the average temperature as one of the main variables. However, the tails of the respective distributions are also crucial and have become increasingly considered in recent years. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its fourth assessment report (IPCC 2007) states, “the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth’s climate changes”. In this paper, the focus is on the statistical behaviour of extreme (maximum and minimum) values of temperature, both in winter and summer. Under the framework of the Extreme Value Theory, the methodology of block maxima is employed. The generalised extreme value distribution, allowing for a linear trend in the location parameter, is fitted to data in order to capture the time tendency in the non-stationary processes. We are able to approximate expected values with a determined probability and to identify time trends of such events. Particularly, an increasing time trend in maximum and minimum temperature is generally detected which could be of great concern to public and private sectors.

Expression and Significance of ER, PR, C-erbB-2, CylinD1, Rb in Different Precancerous Lesions of Breast

Objective To explore the expression and significance of ER, PR,C-erbB-2,CylinDl, Rb in different precancerous lesions of breast. Methods The expressions of ER, PR, C-erbB-2, CylinD1, Rb in breast normal tissue,hyperplasia, atypical hyperplasia and early-stage breast cancer were examined by immunohistochemical technique. Results The expressions of ER and PR were increasing time trend in the different precancerous lesions, and were related to the breast proliferative degree; the positive expression rates of ER and PR in atypical hyperplasia were 63.2% and 68. 4% respectively,significantly higher than those in normal breast tissue(31.3% and 37. 5% respectively) and in hyperplasia(37. 1% and 42.9% respectively). The positive expression rates of CylinD1 and C-erbB-2 were increasing time trend in the different precancerous lesions. The negative expression rate of Rb was the highest in early-stage breast cancer,and it was zero in normal breast tissue and hyperplasia. Conclusion The five tumor markers are important factors in breast carcinogenesis, and the overexpression of ER, PR, C-erbB-2, CylinD1 and Rb protein low-expression may be one of the causes of breast neoplasms. Key words: Breast neoplasms; Precancerous conditions; Receptors,estrogen

Letter by Corrado et al Regarding Article, “Sudden Deaths in Young Competitive Athletes: Analysis of 1866 Deaths in the United States, 1980–2006”

To the Editor: We write about the important article from Maron et al1 reporting the results from a 27-year registry on sudden cardiac arrest in US athletes. We appreciate the effort of the authors to provide an estimate of the absolute number of fatal events that occur annually, and we recognize that the study results provide the best data available on the US experience with cardiac events in athletes. In Figure 3, the authors show the distribution over the time of 1866 fatal events. The graphic demonstrates a clearly increasing time trend of sudden cardiac arrest in the US athletes. It is highly impressive that 576 (31%) occurred in the 1980 …

Tuberculosis Incidence in Elderly in Serbia: Key Trends in Socioeconomic Transition

To examine tuberculosis incidence rates among the elderly in Central Serbia in 1992-2006 period, which was characterized by socioeconomic crisis and migration of population. We analyzed all reported active tuberculosis cases in a 15-year period, especially among patients aged > or =65, according to the Annual Reports of the Institute of Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and Central Tuberculosis Register. Population estimates with extrapolations were based on 1991 and 2002 census data. Total tuberculosis incidence rates showed a slight but non-significant decreasing trend (P=0.535), and no significant increase was found in patients aged > or =65 years (P=0.064), with an average age-specific incidence rate for the elderly of 64.0 (95% confidence interval, 60.7-67.4). The increase was significant in patients aged > or =70 years (y=49.3549+2.1186x; P=0.001), both in men (y=62.8666+2.3977x; P=0.005) and even more prominently in women (y=39.8240+1.9150x; P<0.001). The proportion of tuberculosis cases in the elderly peaked in 2005, with 35% of all tuberculosis cases. High incidence rates and increasing time trend of tuberculosis in the elderly in Central Serbia is a serious problem, especially among those aged 70 years and over, who might present a target group for active case-finding of the disease.

Actualización en enfermedad gastrointestinal relacionada con antiinflamatorios no esteroideos

The most recent studies presented at Digestive Disease Week 2008 on non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and aspirin have revealed the growing interest of investigators in the adverse effects of these drugs in the lower gastrointestinal (GI) tract. Some studies have shown that there is an increasing time trend of lower GI events and a decreasing time trend of upper GI events, and that the number of events associated with NSAIDs and/or aspirin located in the lower GI tract is approaching that of events located in the upper GI tract. Another area of growing research interest is the lack of appropriate gastroprotective therapy in patients with risk factors who received NSAIDS or aspirin. Several studies have investigated diverse aspects related to this area and most indicate that at least 50% of at-risk patients treated with NSAIDs (or aspirin) do not receive appropriate gastroprotective therapy.A personal analysis of the data suggests that the risk factor most frequently associated with lack of gastroprotection is age. Knowledge of risk factors and potential therapeutic measures are appropriate among senior residents, but is not subsequently translated into clinical practice.There is no easy solution to this problem since, even within the best conditions of a mega-trial (MEDAL trial) with free available gastroprotection and intervention during the trial, investigators could not reach reasonable gastroprotection rates in at-risk patients.One potential solution may come from combination pills (e.g. NSAID+proton pump inhibitor). One study showed that this combination was associated with fewer gastroduodenal lesions and could avoid the need to prescribe a gastroprotective agent and poor compliance.

A Temporal, Multicity Model to Estimate the Effects of Short-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution on Health

BackgroundCountries worldwide are expending significant resources to improve air quality partly to improve the health of their citizens. Are these societal expenditures improving public health?ObjectivesWe consider these issues by tracking the risk of death associated with outdoor air pollution over both space and time in Canadian cities.Materials and methodsWe propose two multi-year estimators that use current plus several previous years of data to estimate current year risk. The estimators are derived from sequential time series analyses using moving time windows. To evaluate the statistical properties of the proposed methods, a simulation study with three scenarios of changing risk was conducted based on 12 Canadian cities from 1981 to 2000. Then an optimal estimator was applied to 24 of Canada’s largest cities over the 17-year period from 1984 to 2000.ResultsThe annual average daily concentrations of ozone appeared to be increasing over the time period, whereas those of nitrogen dioxide were decreasing. However, the proposed method returns different time trends in public health risks. Evidence for some monotonic increasing trends in the annual risks is weak for O3 (p = 0.3870) but somewhat stronger for NO2 (p = 0.1082). In particular, an increasing time trend becomes apparent when excluding year 1998, which reveals lower risk than proximal years, even though concentrations of NO2 were decreasing. The simulation results validate our two proposed methods, producing estimates close to the preassigned values.ConclusionsDespite decreasing ambient concentrations, public health risks related to NO2 appear to be increasing. Further investigations are necessary to understand why the concentrations and adverse effects of NO2 show opposite time trends.

Trends in HIV-related morbidity among patients admitted to a South Indian tertiary hospital between 1997 and 2003

This paper describes trends in HIV-related morbidity among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) admitted to a tertiary hospital in Chennai, South India, between 1997 and 2003. Patients comprised HIV-infected men, women and children who had been admitted at least once to YR Gaitonde Centre for AIDS Research and Education (YRGCARE). A non-parametric trends analysis was conducted to observe trends in clinical and demographic parameters and diagnoses at admission over the seven-year period. Among clinical and demographic parameters, we identified a significantly increasing time trend in the use of antiretroviral therapy (p<0.001) and a significant decrease in the mean hemoglobin level (p=0.01). Among diagnoses at admission, we identified a decreasing time trend for admissions due to pulmonary tuberculosis (p<0.001) and increasing trends for admissions due to extra pulmonary tuberculosis (p<0.01), toxoplasmosis (p<0.01), Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (p=0.02) and anemia (p<0.001). The results indicate a changing pattern among the clinical conditions requiring admission. With increasing proportions of patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), it is probable that adverse events due to HAART will account for larger proportions of admissions in the years to come, as is being seen in the industrialized countries.

Temporal Development of Brominated Flame Retardants in Peregrine Falcon(Falco peregrinus) Eggs from South Greenland (1986−2003)

A time trend between 1986 and 2003 was found for brominated flame retardants in peregrine falcon eggs from South Greenland, with significantly increasing concentrations of the polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) 99, 100, 153, 154, and 209. For BDE-99 and -100, the concentration increased approximately 10% per year. The concentrations of PBDEs were among the highest detected in wildlife so far and ranged from 300 to 12,900 ng/g lipid weight (lw) for sigmaPBDE. While tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) was below the limit of detection in all eggs, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), dimethyl-TBBPA, and brominated biphenyl BB-153 were detected in a majority of eggs, with median concentrations of 2.4, 230, and 550 ng/g lw, respectively. Analyses of eggs of the same bird showed no significant intra-clutch variation for PBDEs, BB-153, and HBCD but larger variations for dimethyl-TBBPA. Inter-clutch variations with increasing time trends exist for the BDEs 99, 100, 153, 154, and 209, while a decreasing contamination with the BDEs 183, 49, 47, 66 and 153 was indicated in a subset of eggs.

Ten-year incidence and time trends of railway suicides in Germany from 1991 to 2000

Railway suicides strongly impact psychological and socioeconomic aspects of the railway company, its employees and possible eye witnesses. We aimed to assess the incidence of railway suicides compared with the total burden of suicides in Germany and its time trend over a 10-year observation period. From 1991 to 2000, a total of 8,653 fatal railway suicides were recorded by the national central registry of all passenger accidents on the German railway net. To assess time trends, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the number of suicides was estimated using Poisson regression. Adjustments were made for two age groups and measures of availability. Railway suicides accounted for 7.0% (annual range 5.0-7.9%) of all suicides in Germany. The time trend of the number of suicides by all means declined, with a significant stronger decline for older subjects [AAPC -2.2; 95% confidence intercal (CI) -3.0 to -1.5; and -4.2; 95% CI -5.2 to -3.0]. An AAPC of 1.8% (95% CI 0.1-3.4) indicated an increasing time trend of the number of railway suicides for subjects aged <or=65 years, whereas, in contrast, fatal incidences for subjects aged >65 years exhibited a strong decrease (AAPC -6.2%; 95% CI -10.9 to -1.3). The present study demonstrates different time trends for railway suicides compared with all suicides. It underlines the urgent need for amplified research efforts in the particular field of railway suicides. Further examinations are recommended, in particular concerning possible reasons for this suicidal method.

Cancer incidence in the south Asian population of California, 1988–2000

BackgroundAlthough South Asians (SA) form a large majority of the Asian population of U.S., very little is known about cancer in this immigrant population. SAs comprise people having origins mainly in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. We calculated age-adjusted incidence and time trends of cancer in the SA population of California (state with the largest concentration of SAs) between 1988–2000 and compared these rates to rates in native Asian Indians as well as to those experienced by the Asian/Pacific Islander (API) and White, non-Hispanic population (NHW) population of California.MethodsAge adjusted incidence rates observed among the SA population of California during the time period 1988–2000 were calculated. To correctly identify the ethnicity of cancer cases, 'Nam Pehchan' (British developed software) was used to identify numerator cases of SA origin from the population-based cancer registry in California (CCR). Denominators were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Incidence rates in SAs were calculated and a time trend analysis was also performed. Comparison data on the API and the NHW population of California were also obtained from CCR and rates from Globocan 2002 were used to determine rates in India.ResultsBetween 1988–2000, 5192 cancers were diagnosed in SAs of California.Compared to rates in native Asian Indians, rates of cancer in SAs in California were higher for all sites except oropharyngeal, oesophageal and cervical cancers. Compared to APIs of California, SA population experienced more cancers of oesophagus, gall bladder, prostate, breast, ovary and uterus, as well as lymphomas, leukemias and multiple myelomas. Compared to NHW population of California, SAs experienced more cancers of the stomach, liver and bile duct, gall bladder, cervix and multiple myelomas. Significantly increasing time trends were observed in colon and breast cancer incidence.ConclusionSA population of California experiences unique patterns of cancer incidence most likely associated with acculturation, screening and tobacco habits. There is need for early diagnosis of leading cancers in SA. If necessary steps are not taken to curb the growth of breast, colon and lung cancer, rates in SA will soon approximate those of the NHW population of California.

Early and late coronary deaths in the US Railroad study predicted by major coronary risk factors

The purpose of this study was to explore the duration of the association of major coronary risk factors measured on a single occasion with coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths during 40 years in a population sample of middle-aged men. Measurement of age, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, and cigarette smoking was made on a single occasion in 2376 cardiovascular disease free men, aged 40-59, belonging to the US Railroad cohort of the Seven Countries Study enrolled in the late 1950s. During 40 years of follow up 627 men died from typical CHD (sudden death coronary death or definite myocardial infarction). Eight partitioned proportional hazards models were solved, one for each independent 5-year block of follow up, to predict the risk of CHD death. Eight 5-year partitioned hazard scores, derived from the coefficients, were cumulated for each risk factor. The resulting curves showed a regularly increasing time trend in risk for coronary deaths as a function of serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and cigarette smoking, for the first 30-35 years of follow up followed by a loss of predictive power thereafter. The curves fit straight lines, with large squared correlation coefficients ranging from 0.96 to 0.99. There was a relatively constant strength in the association of risk factors levels with events, which are predicted irrespective of the distance from risk factor measurements. Measurement of major coronary risk factors taken on a single occasion in middle-aged men maintained a regular and almost monotonic relationship with the subsequent occurrence of CHD deaths for at least 30-35 years of follow up.

Small area inequalities in breast cancer mortality and screening

Despite the unfavourable epidemiological status, the Hungarian breast cancer control is a non-appropriately developed system having considerable geographical inequalities. The study objective was to describe the small-area pattern of breast cancer mortality and of frequency of mammographical examination. The influence of socio-economical status on these patterns was also studied. The standardised mortality ratios and the standardised relative frequency of mammography was determined for settlements, zipcode areas and small regions. Their correlations were analysed with education, unemployment ratio, ratio of Gypsy and German ethnic minorities, population size, smoking, distance to the nearest hospital. The South-Transdanubian Region (STR, consisting of three counties, 22 small regions, 444 zipcode areas and 643 settlements) with 1 million inhabitants was the study area. All the studied parameters had significant spatial variability at all levels of aggregation. Beyond the relatively low average mortality risk in the STR, mortality clusters and increasing time trend were identified in certain areas. The mortality and the usage of mammography were inversely correlated with the indices of deprivation. These factors explain 64.5 and 17.5% of the whole variability of local mortality risks at the level of settlements and small regions. The explanatory role of these factors was similarly high for usage of mammography as well (40.2 and 52.6% for small regions and zipcode areas). The factors having the strongest influence were the population size (in settlement level mortality model), ratio of gypsies (in small region level mortality and mammography usage models) and ratio of Germans (in mammography usage model for zipcode areas). Inserting the counties' approaches for screening organisation into the model, it revealed that the population based screening organisation applied in Tolna county has the highest influence being 4.4 times stronger than the most important socio-economic factors.Altogether,it seems that the monitoring of spatial inequalities could improve the performance of breast cancer control identifying the populations with special needs, and there is a need to explore the pathways by which the socio-economic factors can exert their profound influence on the epidemiological status. Moreover, since the results clearly demonstrated that it is possible to achieve relatively high screening participation rates in Hungarian economical and legislative circumstances, the application of this successful method should be encouraged in other areas with low performance screening system.

Estimación de la incidencia de cáncer en España: período 1993–1996

To estimate the number of incident cases of cancer in Spain between 1993 and 1996. We used data on the incidence of cancer from nine Spanish population-based cancer registries published in the monograph Cancer incidence in Five Continents, vols. VI and VII (period 1983-92). The National Institute of Statistics provided mortality data (period 1983-96). Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate the number of incident cases. The incidence/mortality ratio was modeled. To account for heterogeneity, the providence of residence was considered as a random effect. Other factors analyzed were sex, age and period. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian approach with BUGS software. Estimates were valdated by comparing the observed number of cases with those predicted by the model in the regions with cancer registry data. The average number of incident cases per annum for all cancer sites except non-melanoma skin cancer was 78,440 for men and 55,480 for women. The most frequent neoplasm in men was lung with 15,480 cases followed by bladder with 9,445 cases and colorectal with 8,876 cases. In women the most frequent cancer was breast with 13,490 cases followed by colorectal with 8,274 cases. These absolute frequencies showed an increasing time trend for all cancers and for the most frequent sites, with the exception of stomach and uterine cervix. Internal validation of the estimates allowed calculation of a relative error smaller than 10%. This is the first time that the number of incident cases of cancer in Spain has been estimated with methods that account for heterogeneity. These figures show the importance of cancer as a public health problem in our community.

Childhood cancer survival in Cuba.

Reports dealing with childhood cancer population-based survival have not yet been published in Cuba. A survival study including cases reported to the National Cancer Registry in the period 1988-1989 have been accomplished in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba. A comprehensive view of its results in childhood cancer is intended to be shown in this paper. All sites childhood cancer cases aged below 15 years (400) and reported in this period were included derived from a total of 578 incident cases. Vital status of cases was checked-up to December of 1994 by a mixed follow-up. Survival analysis was achieved by the life-table method using the SPSS for Windows software. Relative survival rates were not included because no differences were appreciated with the observed ones. Cases between 0-4 years and females account for the highest frequencies. Leukaemia accounts for 27% of the cases, followed by lymphomas and tumours of the central nervous system. Lymphoid and non-lymphoid acute leukaemia had 41 and 9% 5-year survival rate respectively being the latter comparable with Bangalore, India (10%). For lymphomas, Hodgkin's disease present better prognosis compared with non-Hodgkin lymphoma with 73 and 35% 5-year survival rates, respectively. Figures are comparable to the corresponding to Bangalore, India (72 and 33%, respectively). For time trends survival distribution were compared by period of diagnosis (1982/1988-1989). In all cases differences resulted statistically non-significant with lower rates for 1988-1989 except for lymphomas. International reports show increasing time trends for childhood cancer. Nevertheless, these results may serve as a milestone for future comparisons, corresponding with the creation of the National Program for Childhood Cancer Control and future studies will confirm the success of its measures.

Comparison of 49 laparoscopic myomectomies with 49 open myomectomies

To compare the results of open myomectomy with those of laparoscopic myomectomy, and to assess complications, surgical results, total hospital cost, and morbidity associated with each procedure. Retrospective chart review. Private practice of one surgeon, and Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Rush Medical College, Chicago, Illinois. Ninety-eight women with symptomatic uterine leiomyomata. Forty-nine consecutive laparoscopic myomectomies were performed between 1993 and 1995, and 49 open myomectomies were performed between 1983 and 1995. Indications for both procedures were similar, including menometrorrhagia, pelvic pain, and enlarging myomata. Mean operating time for open myomectomies was 133 minutes versus 264 minutes for laparoscopies (p <0.0001). Mean blood loss was 340 ml and 110 ml, respectively (p <0. 001). The greatest blood loss was 1000 ml in the open group and 800 ml in the laparoscopic group. Uterine size at surgery was 12 to 14 weeks in 42.9% of the open group and 9 to 11 weeks in 51% of the laparoscopy group. The open group incurred a total of 272 hospital days versus 29 days in the laparoscopic group (maximum 25 and 3 days, respectively; mean 5.6 and 0.6 days, respectively; p <0.001). The frequency of postoperative complications was higher in the open group (17) than in the laparoscopic group (5, p = 0.0068). Of patients in whom postoperative adhesions were evaluated, the overall frequency of adhesions was lower in the laparoscopic group. Three women in the open group required postoperative transfusions, compared with none in the laparoscopic group. Seven pregnancies have thus far occurred in the laparoscopic group. Three women delivered at term by elective cesarean section, at which no evidence of uterine dehiscence was found. Estimated average cost of each procedure, expressed in April 1995 dollars using the Consumer Price Index, were $14,461 for open myomectomies and $13,814 for laparoscopies (p = 0.65). Linear regression with residual analysis was performed on costs for both groups and revealed significantly increasing time trend for open myomectomies. During the years of this study, the open procedures increased in price at a rate of $868/year. The cost of laparoscopic myomectomies showed no time trend. Compared with open myomectomy, laparoscopic myomectomy had lower morbidity, no identifiable trend of increasing hospital cost, minimal hospital stay, and fewer complications.

The M74 syndrome of baltic salmon ( Salmo salar) and organochlorine concentrations in the muscle of female salmon

Organochlorine concentrations in the muscle of female Baltic salmon ( Salmo salar), ascending for spawning in the Simojoki River on the north-eastern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia from 1988 to 1992 are given in this paper in relation to reproduction success, monitored as viability of offspring. In spring 1992 and 1993 all the yolk-sac fry of 52 % and 75 % of the females, sampled in autumns 1991 and 1992 respectively, died due to the M74 syndrome, i.e., heavy mortality of yolk-sac fry (YSM). The TEOs of the most frequently detected polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs: 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF, 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and 2,3,7,8-TeCDF) and those of coplanar PCBs (CB77, CB126 and CB169) were about twice as high in 1991 and 1992 than before; these substances either showed a significantly increasing time trend or then none at all. The principal component analysis (PCA) showed a strong connection between YSM and the contents of these toxic congeners. PCA also indicated a strong negative connection with YSM and the orange colour intensity of eggs and a weak positive connection with YSM and oxychlordane, hexachlorobenzene and 2,3′,4,4′5-pentachlorodiphenyl ether. The PCA results were supported by the observed significant negative Pearson correlations between egg colour and the contents of toxic PCBs and PCDFs as well as between egg colour and YSM. These compounds seemed not to have any connection to early embryonal mortality, whereas total PCB and DDT concentrations did show an association to that.

Trends in Fishing Mortality Rate along with Errors in Natural Mortality Rate can cause Spurious Time Trends in Fish Stock Abundances Estimated by Virtual Population Analysis (VPA)

Many researchers have reported biases in estimates offish abundance reconstructed by virtual population analysis (VPA). We document that VPA can produce changing levels of bias through time, thereby creating spurious time trends in recruitment and stock biomass estimates. We generated catch data from empirically based simulations of nine fish populations, estimated abundances using VPA with a deliberately mis-specified natural mortality rate, M, and compared the estimates to the models' "true" abundances. A period of increasing fishing mortality rate, F, combined with an overestimate of M produced spurious decreasing time trends in estimated abundance and recruitment, even when the true time series of F was known. Analogously, an underestimate of M led to a spurious increasing time trend. Bias was increased by a higher true M, and (for a given total change in F) by a slower increase in F. Because field estimates of M are uncertain and trends in F are common, some apparent trends (or lack of them) in abundances reconstructed by VPA may be artifacts. Therefore, inferences about the results of past management actions and about physical or biological effects on variability in recruitment must be made cautiously when VPA estimates are used.

Changes in the distribution of carabid beetles in The Netherlands since 1880. II. Isolation of habitats and long-term time trends in the occurence of carabid species with different powers of dispersal (Coleoptera, Carabidae)

The effects of habitat isolation on the occurrences of carabid species over a period of 110 years are studied, as part of a more general treatment of the changes in the fauna of carabid beetles of The Netherlands. According to the founding hypothesis of Den Boer (1977), poorly dispersing species are expected eventually to disappear from small and highly isolated habitat fragments. The time trends in the occurrences of well and of poorly dispersing species since about 1880 are compared by estimating the numbers per decade of occupied 10 × 10 km squares of the distribution maps. These figures are corrected for changes in collecting intensity. Poorly dispersing species generally show decreasing time trends, whereas the occurrences of well dispersing species appear to be more stable, or increasing. A test group of well dispersing species with a high tolerance for agricultural treatments, especially heavy fertilisation, show distinctly increasing time trends, as expected. The quantitative significance of habitat isolation, in comparison to habitat destruction, as an explanation of the gradual disappearance of species with low powers of dispersal, will be the subject of further studies.