Increase In Unemployment Research Articles

The Validity of the Phillips Curve Relationship: An Econometric Study on Moroccan Data

The Phillips curve is a key tool in the formulation of economic policies. The primary objective of this study is to examine the validity of this curve in the Moroccan context. To this end, we employ an ARDL model, applied to annual data covering the period from 1991 to 2023. The results reveal a co-integration relationship, indicating a stable and long-term link between inflation and unemployment. However, contrary to the classical predictions of the Phillips curve, the analysis shows a significant positive impact of inflation on unemployment: a 1% increase in unemployment leads to a 1.22% rise in inflation in the short term, and 1.51% in the long term. These findings challenge the applicability of the Phillips curve in Morocco, highlighting that local economic dynamics deviate from the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This divergence underscores the urgent need to redefine Morocco's economic policies by adopting integrated and balanced monetary and fiscal strategies to effectively address these two major challenges.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions and emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in children: a longitudinal ecological analysis in England, 2012–2017

BackgroundAmbulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are those for which hospital admission could be prevented by interventions in primary care. Children living in socioeconomic disadvantage have higher rates of emergency admissions...

COVID-19’s gendered effect on subjective wellbeing in MENA countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a time of great intensity that exposed many existing inequities in facing this global threat. Building on Galtung’s conceptualization of positive peace as the absence of structural violence and institutionalized inequality, we study the gendered effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported subjective wellbeing (SWB) in four countries in the Middle East. Data from mobile phone panel surveys, with a total sample of 12,614 observations collected during this critical juncture, show that women consistently reported a lower level of SWB than men in all four countries. Women experienced higher increases in unemployment rates than men in all four countries, despite their already higher rates prior to the pandemic. Controlling for individual characteristics and geographic-time fixed effects, the main factor associated with lower SWB was the decline in household income, reflecting the intersectionality of poverty and gender. In addition, the reported increase in the time spent on housework negatively affected women’s SWB, particularly in urban areas. The pandemic has further accentuated gender inequality in all four countries and exposed the inherent structural violence experienced by women in these contexts.

Economic Growth and Gender-Specific Unemployment: Comparison of Selected Oil Exporters and Eastern European Countries (1996 - 2021)

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and gender-based unemployment in developing economies was analyzed for the period 1996-2021. Eastern European countries and oil exporting countries constitute the scope of the study. Gender-specific unemployment data consists of annual changes in male, female, and total unemployment. The real GDP growth rate has been included in the model as the dependent variable. In the study using the panel data method, the GDP gap model of Okun's Law was tested for oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries (Model 1) and Eastern European countries (Model 2). According to the PMG and FMOLS results of the First Model, the unemployment rates of women and men in oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries negatively affect economic growth. In other words, as unemployment increases, economic growth slows down and even turns negative. In the second model, the effect of unemployment by gender on growth in Eastern European countries is different from the first model. According to the PMG and FMOLS results, the female unemployment rate positively affects growth, while the direction of the impact of male unemployment rates on growth is negative for both country groups, as expected. There is a same-directional relationship between female unemployment and growth in Model 2 countries. This result shows the prevalence of unemployment benefits and suggests that labor laws in these countries can be effective in reducing the impact of unemployment.

A Survey and Analysis of Youth Unemployment Rate in China

With the continuous restructuring of China’s industrial structure since the reform and opening up, China’s youth unemployment rate has shown a rapid growth trend in recent years, and the Chinese government has ceased to officially publish this data as of June 2023. Through the analysis of the data, it is found that the continuous rapid growth of unemployment rate in China in recent years is caused by a number of factors such as China’s economic transformation, imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market, epidemics, and brain drain. Among these reasons, the difficulty of young people with low educational attainment in finding suitable jobs should be the direct cause of the increase in unemployment, while the imbalance between supply and demand in the labour market should be the root cause. Combined with the analysis of data and special cases, the author predicts that China’s youth unemployment rate will continue to rise in the next five years, and at the same time puts forward a number of feasible solutions to solve the problem from different perspectives.

Harmonizing the inner orchestra: the impact of urbanization and evolution of stress, inflammation, diet, and lifestyles in depression.

This review explores the intersection of urbanization, stress, inflammation, diet, lifestyle changes, and digital evolution as key factors influencing depression, emphasizing the necessity for integrative and evolutionary perspectives in mental health and intervention. Epidemiological studies reveal a dramatic increase in common mental disorders, particularly depression, alongside parallel increases in suicide, unemployment, and divorce rates. Evolutionary perspectives suggest that mechanisms once advantageous for survival, such as stress responses and inflammatory processes, may contribute to mental health challenges in modern urban environments. Moreover, the mental health crisis among generation Z underscores the impact of digital evolution, where the shift from play-based to phone-based childhood contributes significantly to rising depression rates. Recent research highlights the significant role of omega-3 fatty acids, circadian rhythm regulation, mindfulness, and anti-inflammatory lifestyle interventions in mitigating depressive symptoms. The interplay between our evolutionary heritage and rapid societal changes has created a "symphony" of factors contributing to depression. Understanding these evolutionary mismatches in stress responses, inflammatory processes, dietary shifts, circadian disruptions, and digitalization provides new insights into the etiology of depression. This holistic approach, conceptualized as "harmonizing the inner orchestra," offers promising avenues for prevention and treatment strategies that address the multifaceted nature of depression in our modern world.

Faktor Determinan Minat Kewirausahaan Mahasiswa Akuntansi di Yogyakarta

The increase in the number of students becoming candidates for employment has led to an increase in unemployment among students. The study aims to test whether there is an influence between entrepreneurship learning, family environment and income expectations on entrepreneurial interests of accounting students. This research population is a student of the accounting study program of public and private colleges in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY). In the study, sampling techniques used purposive samplings with respondents of 123 students as well as data analysis techniques included descriptive analysis, classical assumption tests, and hypothesis tests. Based on the analysis of data from the study, it can be concluded that entrepreneurial learning has a positive influence on entrepreneurship interests of accounting students, the family environment has a positively influenced enterprise interests for accounting student, and income expectations have a positive impact on enterprising interest of accountancy students. The difference with previous research is by adding an entrepreneurial learning variable. The results of this research imply in the field of accounting that enables entrepreneurs to obtain a variety of financial information that is important in running their business.

IMPACT OF 12% TAX INCREASE ON UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INDONESIA

The 12% increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate in Indonesia raises concerns about its impact on the unemployment rate and economic growth. This article analyzes the implications of this fiscal policy using a macroeconomic approach and systematic literature review method. The process of coding and visualizing the research results uses Atlas.ti software. The findings suggest that the tax increase has the potential to burden firms, which could lead to a reduction in labor force and increase unemployment, especially in sectors that depend on people's purchasing power. In this situation, higher inflation could erode purchasing power, reduce demand for goods and services, and slow overall economic growth. This research suggests that an increase in unemployment will have a wider negative impact on the economy, as the informal sector tends to be more vulnerable to these fluctuations. Keywords: Value Added Tax (VAT), Increase in VAT rate, Unemployment, Economic growth, Macroeconomic approach.

POTENSI KINERJA UMKM DIUD DUPA JULUNGWANGI

With the potential of large human resources and a wide marketing area, it is very possible for incense UMKM to be developed as one of the UMKM that can reduce the unemployment rate and increase employment. Incense MSMEs are a factor of strength and weakness of UMKM themselves. The quality of incense can also be determined from different colors, raw materials, production processes, sizes, weights, and packaging of incense. UD Julungwangi Incense is one of the businesses that produces and sells various types of incense, several worship tools, and several other accessories such as jade necklaces, bracelets, etc., where this business conducts the marketing process directly to customers.

Pengembangan Ekonomi Lokal melalui Budidaya Rumput Laut dalam Meningkatkan Perekonomian Masyarakat Pesisir

Pontap Village in Palopo City is one of the seaweed cultivation locations. The focus of developing this cultivation is to overcome the unemployment rate and increase community income. This study aims to provide an overview of the development of seaweed cultivation in improving the economy of coastal communities, especially around Pontap Village, Palopo City. The technical aspects of seaweed cultivation businesses make seaweed cultivation activities very popular with coastal communities, which are relatively easy with a short maintenance time. In contrast, from an economic aspect, this business is not just profitable but highly lucrative because the investment and production costs are relatively cheap. The type of seaweed that has economic value that is developed in Palopo City is the Gracilaria sp. type. So it can be concluded from the results of this study that seaweed cultivation efforts positively impact local communities' welfare. However, challenges related to the management of natural resources and environmental impacts need to be considered to maintain the sustainability of seaweed cultivation. This can be seen from the community's behavior in managing seaweed, which still ignores environmental factors. This certainly contradicts the concept of integrated coastal area conservation. These findings provide important insights for local stakeholders, government, and development practitioners.

The Impact of Palm Oil Plantations on Per Capita Income in Kalimantan and Its Effect on Unemployment

Currently, Indonesia's oil palm plantation sector is in a critical phase. While the sector has contributed significantly to national income and created jobs, it is increasingly urged to address a number of social and environmental issues. This study aims to explain the complex relationship between oil palm plantation expansion, per capita income, and unemployment dynamics in the region. Using quantitative methodology and multiple linear regression analysis, this study examines secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Ministry of Agriculture covering the period 2001-2022. The findings show that the expansion of oil palm plantations significantly increases per capita income through direct and indirect job creation. However, its impact on unemployment is not uniform and depends on the prevailing economic structure and adaptability of the local labor market. While some regions experienced a decline in unemployment due to increased job availability, other regions experienced an increase in structural unemployment caused by the adoption of modern technology that reduced the need for manual labor. These findings underscore the need for regional policies tailored to the local economic context, labor market, and local employment conditions

The Importance of Unemployment Risk for Individual Savings

In this paper, we use a novel natural experiment and Norwegian tax data to quantify the causal impact of unemployment risk on individual savings. By comparing individuals who live in the same area but face different increases in risk, we show that a one-percentage-point increase in unemployment rates increases safe assets by 1.3%. Reassuringly, this effect is driven by low-tenured workers, who face the highest increase in risk. Savings in risky financial assets remain unaffected, implying a decrease in the overall risky share of individual portfolios. We use two independent approaches, relying either on cross-sectional variation or time series variation, to quantify the importance of job loss risk in accounting for higher savings during recessions. Our results suggest that unemployment risk can explain 60%–80% of the recession-induced increase in safe assets. This paper was accepted by Camelia Kuhnen, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00987 .

A STUDY ON MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES' EFFECT ON UNEMPLOYMENT ACROSS EUROPE

Europeans’ choice to emigrate is complexly related to motivation and includes both economic and social factors such as family impact, gender inequalities, and differences in income. By comprehending the factors that motivate people to leave their home countries and the strategies they use to do so it is possible to achieve important insights into the phenomenon of emigration within the diverse landscape of European society. Due to the economic crisis of 2008, there was a significant increase in unemployment rates in several European countries, with notable impacts in some countries like Romania, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. The emigration that resulted had a detrimental effect on the economy, reduced job opportunities, and lowered the overall standard of living. Within the context of the countries in which emigration has played a significant role in the economy, the intent of this empirical research is to investigate the effects of specific macroeconomic factors on economic imbalance and unemployment. The unemployment rate, gross domestic product (GDP), minimum income, and external incomes in several European countries are some of the factors that are currently being considered. In this study, we investigate the impact of these variables on unemployment in a sample of twenty-four European countries between the years 2002 and 2020. Our methodology is based on panel data, more specifically, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results showed that during the period under analysis, the minimum wage and remittance inflows had a negative impact on unemployment in the studied European countries, while the emigration rate had a positive impact.

Unpaid overtime and non-standard employment among young people in Europe: do national context and institutions matter?

ABSTRACT This article presents a multilevel analysis of unpaid overtime among young people (aged 15–34) across EU-28 member states. It finds that non-standard employment and the specific characteristics and institutions of Europe’s labour markets are related to unpaid overtime. Use has been made of the European Union Labour Force Survey database for 2019. The econometric analysis shows that a national level and a greater scope of collective bargaining agreements, a higher rate of involuntary part-time employment and lower levels of unemployment expenditure increase the probability of unpaid overtime among young people. Furthermore, our results reveal that how flexibility is boosted in European countries drives unpaid overtime. Temporary employment, working from home and a higher number of hours worked are positively related to unpaid overtime, while part-time employment and temporary work agencies are negatively related. Finally, the older and higher educated young workers have a greater propensity towards unpaid overtime, while there is a negative effect of shift work and no significant one in terms of gender and the degree of protection against dismissal. Policy implications for the implementation of flexibility policies and working time regulations are also discussed.

The Great Lockdown and Economic Voting: Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the 2020 US Presidential Election

The 2020 US presidential election was won by Democrat challenger Joseph Biden over Republican incumbent Donald Trump and was contested during the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unemployment increased sharply during the pandemic but was followed by a large federal relief package. We investigate whether there was economic voting in the 2020 election, that is, whether the increased unemployment rate and the subsequent government response during the pandemic affected Trump’s vote negatively or positively overall. We examine 48 states (by excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC). Using a triple-differences (DDD) model (that is, examining changes in a candidate’s county-level vote-share depending on the change in unemployment and historical Republican-Democrat partisanship), we predict what would have happened if the increase in unemployment rate in between March and October 2020 had been more modest. Although many states show significant negative expected impacts on the Trump vote, we predict that only when when the unemployment rates experience little change during the pandemic would overall results have swung in the incumbent’s favour – and only then in Arizona and Georgia.

The Impact of Changes in China's Population Structure on Consumption Patterns

Consumer spending is the key engine driving economic growth in China. However, in recent years, the overall consumption pattern in China has been affected by domestic epidemics, leading to an increase in unemployment rates among residents and a decrease in consumer willingness. As a result, the annual changes in final consumption expenditure have tended to stabilize, with almost no upward trend. Consequently, numerous studies have emerged based on the current consumption situation in China, providing recommendations to promote consumption. This paper, using data from the World Bank and China's National Statistical Yearbook, conducts research on the impact of demographic changes on consumption structure and proposes relevant suggestions to boost consumption in China. Researching the development of China's population structure reveals several notable trends. These include a decrease in the working-age population accompanied by a significant aging trend, improvements in population quality due to enhanced human capital, and a noticeable trend towards urbanization and increased population mobility. Therefore, this paper provides a series of recommendations, encourages national policies and corporate innovations that promote consumption, and offers solutions to potential issues arising from changes in population structure.

Financial impact of pandemics on pension sustainability: an application for Spain

AbstractEpidemiologists are warning that the next pandemic is almost around the corner. As we have seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, the death toll was at the highest for over 60th, transforming the population pyramids. In times of pandemics, two effects on sustainability of the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme go in different directions: the increase in old-age mortality (leading to a decrease in pension spending) and the increase in unemployment (leading to a decline in income from contributions). In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of pandemics on the financial sustainability of PAYG pension schemes, taking into account changes in both mortality and unemployment factors. Using functional data analysis we develop projections of population pyramids and allow for anticipated mortality jumps as a result of future pandemics. An application is carried out using mortality and fertility data from Spain. Given some plausible assumptions, our findings indicate, firstly, that the financial sustainability of the Spanish pension system is compromised. Secondly, in the event of a pandemic, we observe that financial sustainability is primarily driven by the mortality effect—resulting in a decrease in pension expenditure—while the impact of unemployment is almost negligible.

DETERMINANTS OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN THE SELECTED GROUP OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

The paper focuses on providing basic characteristics of income inequality in a group of selected European countries in the period from 2000 to 2019. After presenting stylized facts and brief literature review, the paper proceeds to empirical analysis of income inequality in the observed countries by panel data techniques. Fixed and random effects models are estimated. After Hausman test approved the usage of fixed effects model, it was tested for serial correlation and robust standard errors were calculated. The empirical analysis of the determinants of income inequality shows that GDP growth, share of population in upper 10% of income percentile, Human Development Index and unemployment rate increase income inequality measured by Gini index, while share of workforce and share of population with tertiary education decrease income inequality. The results of the empirical analysis provide insight into determinants of income inequality, which may be useful for economic policy decision makers in their efforts to decrease the income inequality.

Фронтиры развития автопроизводства в РФ в условиях адаптации к новым вызовам

The automotive industry is one of the main industries in mechanical engineering. It accounts for a large share of capital investments. The conveyor assembly system, which was widely used in this industry at the time, radically changed the entire industry of the XX century. The multiplicative effect of car production makes the industry the "locomotive" of the economy. The automotive industry is today one of the frontiers in the development of our country's economy. The purpose of the study is to analyze the situation in the Russian car market and assess the prospects for the development of the Russian automotive industry in the context of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the strengthening of sanctions restrictions by unfriendly countries. In the process of working on the study, methods of analysis, synthesis, description, comparative, problematic, logistic and dynamic methods were used. According to the results of the study, the following conclusions were drawn: the automotive industry plays an essential role in the processes of globalization of the modern economy. However, the disruption of logistics chains had a negative impact on the situation in the domestic automotive industry and the consumer market, led to a reduction in production and an increase in unemployment in this industry. The way out of this situation is to reorient domestic car production to cooperate with companies from friendly countries, such as China, and establish logistics chains through intermediary countries, such as Kazakhstan, but adjusted for minimizing costs. An important role in solving this problem can be played by the development and implementation of an import substitution mechanism in the production of domestic cars, including electric cars. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the proposed frontiers in the stabilization of Russian automotive production have been identified taking into account the impact of both external and internal factors in the current volatile economic situation caused by the reaction of unfriendly countries towards Russia.

Employment and Unemployment as A Subject of State Regulation of The Labor Market in Azerbaijan

Annotation: The level of employment and unemployment are important macroeconomic indicators in order to characterize the effect of the economic policy implemented in the Republic of Azerbaijan and the degree of economic development of the country. The high level of unemployment in the economy causes various complications, which negatively affects the state of socio-economic progress. It is appropriate to consider a number of directions in the field of state regulation of employment and unemployment. These are the regulation of the demand and development for workplaces, the implementation of a successful state policy in the field of education, vocational training and personnel retraining. In the study of the scientific basis of employment issues, it is selected due to the importance of maintaining the continuity of workplaces and regulating its market relations based on the relevance of objective development laws. In this field, it is also worth noting the need for specialization. Measures in the field of policy regulation in the direction of employment and unemployment mostly act as efficiency indicators of the state's social policy as well. Implementation of various projects, representation of people from relevant classes in those projects and other necessary issues carry the strategic essence of employment-oriented social policy. The paper clarifies various issues regarding employment and unemployment in the Republic of Azerbaijan and deals with the state regulation in this direction. In the study, the approach to both problems on the current national economic priorities is more concrete and systematic. The creation of industrial parks and districts in different regions of the country will have a positive effect on the reduction of unemployment and, in parallel, on the preservation of the increasing dynamics of employment indicators. If we take into account the prospects of the territories freed from occupation in recent years, we can say that substantial results will be achieved based on the reforms and strategies carried out in the future. As it is known, state programs for the development of regions are adopted continuously and gradually in Azerbaijan. The implementation of these programs in stages will allow the establishment of production enterprises and the creation of new jobs. This, in turn, will lead to a decrease in the level of unemployment and further increase in employment opportunities.