Increasing Shrub Cover Research Articles

Recent Shrub Proliferation in the Mackenzie Delta Uplands and Microclimatic Implications

Local observations, repeat photos, and broad-scale remote sensing suggest that tall shrubs are becoming an increasingly dominant component of Low Arctic ecosystems. This shift has the potential to alter the surface energy balance through changes to the surface albedo, snow accumulation and melt, and ground thermal regimes. However, to date there have been few quantitative estimates of the rate of tall shrub expansion. We used soft copy stereo visualization of air photos to map fine-scale changes in tall shrub tundra and green alder density in the upland tundra north of Inuvik, NT between 1972 and 2004. We also used 2004 photos to map tall shrub tundra in areas affected by fires that occurred between 1960 and 1968. To assess the potential impact of vegetation change on microclimate, we used pyranometers to measure albedo and net solar radiation, thermistors attached to data loggers to record ground temperatures, and field surveys to record winter snow conditions in three common vegetation types. Fine-scale mapping shows that green alder stem density has increased by 68% (±24.1) since 1972. Average tall shrub tundra cover has also increased by 15% (±3.6) since 1972. Historical tundra fires had the highest proportion of tall shrub cover of all areas mapped using 2004 photos, ranging from 92 to 99%. Based on these results, we suggest that predicted increases in the size and frequency of tundra fire are likely to drive rapid shrub proliferation in the Low Arctic. Shrub-dominated sites have decreased albedo, increased net solar radiation, deeper snow pack, and elevated near-surface ground temperatures, indicating that continued increases in shrub cover will affect regional climate, hydrology, permafrost temperatures, and terrain stability.

Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40 % of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500 years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30–50 years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50–100 years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.

Influence of surrounding vegetation on insect herbivory: A matter of spatial scale and herbivore specialisation

The diversity of surrounding vegetation is thought to modify the interactions between a focal plant and its herbivores, disrupting (associational resistance) or enhancing (associational susceptibility) host plant location and colonisation. We compared the effects of host plant concentration on herbivory by generalist and specialist insects feeding on oak seedlings by increasing local concentration of seedlings. We also assessed the effects of the composition and structure of surrounding vegetation, both at stand and local levels. The damage caused by generalist leaf-feeding insects depended on the structure of plant communities at stand level, and increased with tree cover. By contrast, infestation by specialist leaf miners was affected by local understorey vegetation surrounding oak seedlings, and decreased with increasing shrub cover and stratification diversity. Leaf mine abundance was higher at higher oak seedling density, giving support to the host concentration hypothesis. However, the abundance of these specialist herbivores was also negatively correlated with damage caused by the generalist external leaf-feeders, suggesting competitive interactions.

Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems

Increasing shrub cover on Arctic tundra is linked to climate warming, which is partially amplified by sea ice feedbacks, but the nature of these interactions remains poorly understood. Now research indicates that tundra plant productivity in late spring relates to sea-ice-driven temperature amplification but that the growing season peak is more closely associated with persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

The abundance ofIxodes ricinusticks depends on tree species composition and shrub cover

The mainstream forestry policy in many European countries is to convert coniferous plantations into (semi-natural) deciduous woodlands. However, woodlands are the main habitat for Ixodes ricinus ticks. Therefore, assessing to what extent tick abundance and infection with Borrelia spirochetes are affected by forest composition and structure is a prerequisite for effective prevention of Lyme borreliosis. We selected a total of 25 pine and oak stands, both with and without an abundant shrub layer, in northern Belgium and estimated tick abundance between April and October 2008-2010. Additionally, the presence of deer beds was used as an indicator of relative deer habitat use. Borrelia infections in questing nymphs were determined by polymerase chain reactions. The abundance of larvae, nymphs, and adults was higher in oak stands compared to pine stands and increased with increasing shrub cover, most likely due to differences in habitat use by the ticks' main hosts. Whereas tick abundance was markedly higher in structure-rich oak stands compared to homogeneous pine stands, the Borrelia infection rates in nymphs did not differ significantly. Our results indicate that conversion towards structure-rich deciduous forests might create more suitable tick habitats, but we were unable to detect an effect on the infection rate.

Microclimatic response to increasing shrub cover and its effect on Sphagnum CO2 exchange in a bog

We examined the effect of long-term nitrogen (plus phosphorus and potassium) fertilization, resulting in increased shrub cover, on seasonal changes in understory light, soil temperature, and soil moisture in an ombrotrophic bog. An increase in leaf area index (LAI) was negatively correlated with light transmission through the canopy, decreasing photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) reaching the peat surface by up to an average of 77% compared to unfertilized plots. Owing to the denser shrub canopy, near surface soil temperature was cooler in summer and less spatially variable within the fertilized plots. A laboratory study of the environmental controls on Sphagnum capillifolium carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange showed that there were significant interactions between moisture and temperature, but changes in CO2 exchange in response to temperature or moisture were small compared to the influence of light. These results suggest that the absence of moss in the fertilized plots may be, in part, the result of decreased light availability. Alterations to the competitive balance between the shrub and moss layer could lead to changes in C storage in these ecosystems.

Relative influence of habitat structure, species interactions and rainfall on the post‐fire population dynamics of ground‐dwelling vertebrates

AbstractThe long‐term impacts of wildfires on animal populations are largely unknown. We used time‐series data based on a tracking index, from coastal NSW spanning 28 years after a wildfire, to investigate the relative influence of habitat structure, species interactions and climate on post‐fire animal population dynamics. The fire had an immediate impact on habitat structure, reducing and simplifying vegetation cover, which then underwent post‐fire successional change including an increase and plateau in tree canopy cover; an increase, stabilization and then decline in shrub cover; and an increase in ground litter cover. Population changes of different animal species were influenced by different components of successional change, but there was also evidence that species interactions were important. For example, bandicoots (Isoodon obesulus and Perameles nasuta combined) increased concurrent with an increase in shrub cover then declined at a faster rate than a direct association with senescing shrub cover would suggest, while the feral cat (Felis catus) population changed with the bandicoot population, suggesting a link between these species. Potoroos (Potorous tridactylus) increased 10 years after the fire concurrent with the closing tree canopy, but there was also evidence of a negative association with feral foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Variation in rainfall did not have significant effects on the population dynamics of any species. Our results suggest that changes in habitat structure play a key role in the post‐fire dynamics of many ground‐dwelling animals and hence different fire regimes are likely to influence animal dynamics through their effects on habitat structure. However, the role of predator–prey interactions, particularly with feral predators, is less clear and further study will require manipulative experiments of predators in conjunction with fire treatments to determine whether feral predator control should be integrated with fire management to improve outcomes for some native species.

Browsing‐mediated shrub canopy changes drive composition and species richness in forest‐tundra ecosystems

Changes in climate and in browsing pressure are expected to alter the abundance of tundra shrubs thereby influencing the composition and species richness of plant communities. We investigated the associations between browsing, tundra shrub canopies and their understory vegetation by utilizing a long‐term (10–13 seasons) experiment controlling reindeer and ptarmigan herbivory in the subarctic forest tundra ecotone in northwestern Fennoscandia. In this area, there has also been a consistent increase in the yearly thermal sum and precipitation during the study period. The cover of shrubs increased 2.8–7.8 fold in exclosures and these contrasted with browsed control areas creating a sharp gradient of canopy cover of tundra shrubs across a variety of vegetation types. Browsing exclusions caused significant shifts in more productive vegetation types, whereas little or no shift occurred in low‐productive tundra communities. The increased deciduous shrub cover was associated with significant losses of understory plant species and shifts in functional composition, the latter being clearest in the most productive plant community types. The total cover of understory vegetation decreased along with increasing shrub cover, while the cover of litter showed the opposite response. The cover of cryptogams decreased along with increasing shrub cover, while the cover of forbs was favoured by a shrub cover. Increasing shrub cover decreased species richness of understory vegetation, which was mainly due to the decrease in the cryptogam species. The effects were consistent across different types of forest tundra vegetation indicating that shrub increase may have broad impacts on arctic vegetation diversity. Deciduous shrub cover is strongly regulated by reindeer browsing pressure and altered browsing pressure may result in a profound shrub expansion over the next one or two decades. Results suggest that the impact of an increase in shrubs on tundra plant richness is strong and browsing pressure effectively counteracts the effects of climate warming‐driven shrub expansion and hence maintains species richness.

Spatial pattern and composition of the Florida scrub seed bank and vegetation along an anthropogenic disturbance gradient

AbstractQuestionHow does spatial pattern and composition of the seed bank and its relationship to above‐ground cover vary across an anthropogenic disturbance gradient of intact Florida rosemary scrub, degraded scrub and improved pasture?LocationFlorida rosemary scrub, Lake Wales Ridge, Highlands County, FL, USA (27° 11′N, 81° 21′W).MethodsIn nine grid plots located in intact Florida rosemary scrub, degraded scrub and improved pasture, we assessed percentage vegetation cover and seed bank composition.ResultsThe vegetation was dominated by long‐lived perennials, while the seed bank was dominated by short‐lived species. Shrubs were the dominant above‐ground cover in rosemary scrub, sub‐shrubs and the spike moss Selaginella arenicola in degraded scrub and non‐native grasses in pastures. Scrub forbs were dominant in the seed bank of rosemary scrub, similar amounts of sedges, ruderal forbs and scrub forbs in degraded scrub, and ruderal species and sedges in pastures. Species absent from the vegetation were randomly distributed in the seed bank, while species present above‐ground had an aggregated spatial distribution. In rosemary scrub, scrub forb seed banks were spatially aggregated and were positively associated with conspecific species above‐ground and with litter cover. These patterns were not observed in degraded scrub, perhaps due to reduced shrub and increased bare ground.ConclusionOur results suggest that reduced shrub cover and increased bare ground in the degraded scrub may explain why there is less spatial aggregation of scrub forbs in the seed bank. Restoration of Florida rosemary scrub in pasture sites will require species reintroduction of appropriate scrub species; restoration of degraded scrub should emphasize increasing shrub cover to restore habitat spatial structure.

Shrub expansion at the forest–tundra ecotone: spatial heterogeneity linked to local topography

Recent densification of shrub cover is now documented in many Arctic regions. However, most studies focus on global scale responses, yielding very little information on the local patterns. This research aims to quantify shrub cover increase at northern treeline (Québec, Canada) in two important types of environment, sandy terraces and hilltops (which cover about 70% of the landscape), and to identify the species involved. The comparison of a mosaic of two aerial photographs from 1957 (137 km2) and one satellite image taken in 2008 (151 km2) revealed that both hilltops and terraces recorded an increase in shrub cover. However, the increase was significantly greater on terraces than on hilltops (21.6% versus 11.6%). According to ground truthing, the shrub cover densification is associated mainly with an increase of Betula glandulosa Michx. The numerous seedlings observed during the ground truthing suggest that shrub densification should continue in the future.

Shrub hummocks as foci for small animal disturbances in an encroached shrubland

Resources in semi-arid landscapes are concentrated around woody plants (trees and shrubs), and therefore attract soil–disturbing fauna. Globally the trend has been to remove encroaching shrubs from semi-arid shrublands to increase their value for pastoralism, potentially affecting shrub–resident biota. We examined the distribution of animal disturbances created by a range of organisms (e.g. ants, scorpion, cicada, reptiles, small mammals) under two ploughing treatments, with and without grazing, in a semi-arid shrubland. We hypothesized that 1) animal structures would be clustered around resource-rich shrub patches, and 2) the density and composition of animal structures would differ between undisturbed (ungrazed and unploughed) and disturbed (ploughed and/or grazed) plots. Overall, we found more animal disturbance within shrub patches than in the interspaces irrespective of grazing and/or ploughing treatments, and well-defined increases in density of animal disturbances with increasing shrub cover. Our study highlights the importance of shrub hummocks as habitat patches for animals, and the potential negative feedbacks processes arising from shrub removal.

Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities

Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra ecosystems. Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in ‘greenness’, have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil–atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

Local habitat and landscape affect Ixodes ricinus tick abundances in forests on poor, sandy soils

A large fraction of the forests in northern Belgium consists of homogeneous pine stands on nutrient-poor and acid sandy soils. However, in common with many other parts of Europe, the current forest management aims at increasing the share of deciduous and mixed forests. This might create favourable habitats for the tick Ixodes ricinus, which is Europe’s main vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis in humans. Considering the threat to human health, it is important to know which factors regulate tick abundance. The influence of local habitat and landscape variables on the abundance of I. ricinus ticks were studied by collecting questing larvae, nymphs, and adults at 176 locations in forests in the Campine region (northern Belgium). Both I. ricinus ticks and B. burgdorferi spirochetes occurred throughout the study area, which means that the entire region represents an area of risk for contracting Lyme borreliosis. At the forest stand level, the main tree species and the shrub cover significantly affected the abundance of all life stages of I. ricinus. The abundance was higher in oak stands compared to pine stands, and increased with increasing shrub cover. Additionally, at the landscape level, a positive effect was found for forest edge length but not for forest cover. These patterns may be explained by the habitat preferences of the tick’s main hosts. Our results indicate that forest conversion might indeed create suitable habitats for ticks, which highlights the need for intensive information campaigns and effective tick control measures.

Study of the windbreak effect of shrubs as a function of shrub cover and height

In sand-control engineering, it is difficult to predict the optimal shrub cover, and to determine the relationship between this shrub cover and shrub height. Based on analysis of the physical mechanisms responsible for wind erosion (specifically, the increase in the threshold friction velocity required to entrain particles), a model was developed for the optimal shrub cover to control wind erosion and the optimal configuration that combines the best shrub cover and height. The value of a shrub plantation for counteracting erosion increases with increasing shrub cover and height, but is more sensitive to shrub cover. The friction wind velocity increases with increasing shrub cover and height. The optimal shrub cover was 60–65%, which confirms the results of previous Chinese field research.

Plant diversity consequences of a herbivore‐driven biome switch from Grassland to Nama‐Karoo shrub steppe in South Africa

AbstractQuestionsHow does heavy grazing change plant community structure, composition and species richness and diversity in an ecotone between grassland and semi‐arid shrub steppe‐type vegetation? Does grazing favour plants with arid affinity over those with less arid affinity? Does the grazing‐induced transformation constitute a switch to the equivalent of a shrub‐dominated biome?LocationCentral South Africa.MethodsUsing systematic scanning of SPOT 5 imagery and ground‐truthing, a grazing treatment area was selected that met criteria of intensity of grazing, sampling requirements, and biogeographical position within a broad ecotonal zone. Differential vegetation responses to heavy grazing were tested for significant differences in plant traits, vegetation structure, and species diversity, richness and evenness. Gamma diversity was calculated for the whole study site, whereas, independent beta diversity was calculated across the treatments assuming the additive partitioning of diversity. In addition, the biogeographical association of grazing‐induced species shifts was determined using a range of available databases.ResultsCanopy cover and height of woody shrubs increased significantly with heavy grazing whereas that of graminoid plants declined. The resultant species turnover was modest, apparent extinctions of local species were minimal, species richness was maintained and species diversity was significantly enhanced. There was a significant increase in species evenness, through possible suppression of dominant species. Significant increases in species cover were those associated with mainly the Nama‐Karoo biome indicating that species from more arid areas are more resistant to grazing as would be expected by the convergence model of aridity and grazing resistance.ConclusionsThe significant increase in shrub cover in heavily grazed semi‐arid grassland followed general global expectations. The study confirmed that the supposed former large shift of grassland to shrubby Nama‐Karoo in the eastern upper Karoo can indeed be readily affected by heavy grazing. The negative connotations for biodiversity that have often been associated with intense grazing seem, in terms of the positive responses of plant species diversity in this study, to perhaps be exaggerated. The elevated species diversity with grazing of vegetation with a long evolutionary grazing history in a low resource area may require a reappraisal of the application of certain grazing hypotheses.

Large herbivores limit CO2 uptake and suppress carbon cycle responses to warming in West Greenland

AbstractChanges in the terrestrial carbon cycle may ameliorate or exacerbate future climatic warming. Research on this topic has focused almost exclusively on abiotic drivers, whereas biotic factors, including trophic interactions, have received comparatively little attention. We quantified the singular and interactive effects of herbivore exclusion and simulated warming on ecosystem CO2 exchange over two consecutive growing seasons in West Greenland. Exclusion of caribou and muskoxen over the past 8 years has led to dramatic increases in shrub cover, leaf area, ecosystem photosynthesis, and a nearly threefold increase in net C uptake. These responses were accentuated by warming, but only in the absence of herbivores. Carbon cycle responses to herbivore exclusion alone and combined with warming were driven by changes in gross ecosystem photosynthesis, as limited differences in ecosystem respiration were observed. Our results show that large herbivores can be of critical importance as mediators of arctic ecosystem responses to climate change.

Shrub Cover on the North Slope of Alaska: a circa 2000 Baseline Map

In situ observations show increases in shrub cover in different arctic regions in recent decades and have been cited to explain the increases in arctic vegetation productivity revealed by satellite remote sensing. A widespread increase in shrub cover, particularly tall shrub cover, is likely to profoundly alter the tundra biome because of its influence on biogeochemical cycling and feedbacks to climate. To monitor changes in shrub cover, aid field studies, and inform ecosystem models, we mapped shrub cover across the North Slope of Alaska. First, images from the IKONOS and SPOT satellite sensors were used to detect tall (>1 m) and short shrub presence at high resolution (<5 m grid cells) in different parts of the domain. The resulting maps were then used to train a Random Forest regression algorithm that mapped total and tall shrub cover, expressed as a percent of the total surface area, at 30 m resolution from a mosaic of Landsat scenes. The final shrub cover maps correspond well with field measurements (r2 = 0.7, root mean square error = 17%, N = 24) and compared well with the existing vegetation type maps of the study area and a gridded temperature data set not used in the map generation.

Can we use shelterwoods in Mediterranean pine forests to promote oak seedling development?

The use of shelterwoods to favour the development of natural or underplanted seedlings is common in temperate forests but rare in the pine forests of the Mediterranean area. Our aim was to assess the use of shelterwoods in Aleppo pine ( Pinus halepensis) woodlands in southern France to promote the survival and growth of two co-occurring oak species: the deciduous Quercus pubescens and the evergreen Quercus ilex. Twelve Aleppo pine stands were selected and differentially thinned to create a light shelterwood (basal area = 10 m 2/ha, irradiance 52%), a medium shelterwood (basal area = 19 m 2/ha, irradiance 33%) and a dense shelterwood (basal area = 32 m 2/ha, irradiance 13%). A total of 1248 sowing points, half composed of Q. pubescens and half of Q. ilex, were then set up in these three conditions. Seedling survival and growth were monitored for 3 years. Plant stress was assessed by measuring predawn leaf potential and photosynthetic performance through the F v/ F m ratio. Soil moisture was also recorded at two depths during two growing seasons. Survival was high for both species in all three conditions due to three consecutive wet years. The lowest survival was recorded for Q. pubescens in the dense shelterwoods. Growth in diameter and height increased from the dense to the light shelterwoods. Shrubs developed more strongly in the light shelterwood, and increasing shrub cover enhanced height growth. Photosynthetic performance was lowest for Q. pubescens in dense shelterwoods and highest in light shelterwoods, whereas the reverse was true for Q. ilex. The lowest predawn potentials were recorded in the dense shelterwoods even though higher soil water content values were measured in this treatment during the summer drought. We show that light shelterwoods were more beneficial to growth than denser ones, indicating control mainly by light availability during the 3 years of the study. However, as lower soil moisture at 30–50 cm depth and faster understorey development were also recorded in this condition, more extended observation is needed to determine whether this benefit persists in subsequent years.

Changes in bird communities in Swaziland savannas between 1998 and 2008 owing to shrub encroachment

AbstractAim This study investigates changes in bird communities between 1998 and 2008 in four savanna sites in Swaziland and the extent to which shrub encroachment is responsible for these changes.Location Swaziland, southern Africa.Methods Generalized estimated equations were used to estimate changes in bird species occurrence between 1998 and 2008. Remote sensing of aerial photographs/satellite images was used to assess vegetation changes during the same period. We assessed the role of shrub encroachment for bird communities by testing the relationship between change in species occurrence and species habitat using a general linear model. We also estimated species richness, colonization and extinction and used general linear models to test the effects of vegetation changes on these parameters.Results More than half of the bird species showed a significant change in occurrence between 1998 and 2008: 32 species increased and 29 decreased. Change in species occurrence was significantly explained by species habitat. Species significantly increasing were mainly associated with wooded savanna, whereas species significantly decreasing were mainly associated with open savanna. Species richness decreased significantly, and this decrease was significantly explained by shrub cover increase at the plot scale (from 24% to 44% on average). Extinction at the plot scale was significantly influenced by the loss of grass cover, while colonization at the plot scale was influenced by tree cover increase.Main conclusions This study represents the first evidence of temporal changes in bird communities owing to shrub encroachment in southern Africa. Despite its short time frame (10 years), this study shows dramatic changes in both vegetation structure and bird community composition. This confirms the general concern for southern African bird species associated with open savanna if current trends continue.

Temporal dynamics of shrub proliferation: linking patches to landscapes

Shifts in vegetation composition and cover are the result of processes acting at different levels such as landscapes, hill slopes, or plant interspaces. Analytical approaches designed for discrete objects which are based upon the inherently hierarchical nature of complex systems are well suited to research applications conducted across spatial scales. We quantified spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics over 71 years at three spatial scales, landscape, plot, and patch, in a Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem in southern New Mexico, USA, using object-based analysis. We analyzed time series aerial photography from 1937 to 2008 to include automated image analysis at the landscape scale and manual delineation of shrub image objects at the patch scale. We sought to identify patch mechanisms associated with changes in shrub patch density and percent cover by characterizing structural changes in individual shrub patches from one image to the next in the time series. The classification scheme captured colonization by new shrub patches, growth or decline in patch area, and patch stability (i.e., change in size of less than 15%). Patch growth was categorized as growth by coalescence with neighboring patches or canopy expansion. Similarly, patch decline was distinguished as either loss of patch area due to canopy dieback or fragmentation of conglomerate patches. Interpretations of change in patch density based solely on shrub colonization and mortality can be too simplistic. Increases in patch density can result from an influx of new patches or fragmentation of patches into its constituent patches; conversely, decreases in density may be due to mortality of patches or coalescence of existing patches. We demonstrate that patches grew in size at the beginning of the study in conjunction with increases in shrub cover (0.5% in 1937 to 11% in 1960) and patch density increased during the initial encroachment phase of shrub proliferation (4 patches ha−1 in 1937 to 80 patches ha−1 in 1960). Shrub cover remained stable at 7% from 1967 to 1989 and over this period, patch dynamics were broadly characterized by growth and persistence of patch area with roughly equal proportions of mortality and colonization. Shrub cover increased linearly from 8% in 1989 to 14% in 2008, approaching a projected maximum shrub cover of 18% based on mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 230 mm. Patch fate over this period constituted growth and persistence of shrub patch area whereas appearance of new patches remained relatively stable. Shrub patch dynamics were nonlinear and variable over time. We documented the transition from grass- to shrub-dominated states with patch dynamics signifying a shifting mosaic in which shrub patch establishment, growth, and mortality wax and wane. Monitoring patch dynamics will become increasingly important in actively managed ecosystems as an important indicator of impending shifts in ecosystem structure and function.