Increase In House Prices Research Articles

Evaluating the spillover value of ecological products from urban rivers eco-restoration: A quasi-natural experiment in Wuhan, China

The widespread eco-restoration of urban river (ERUR) plays a crucial role in realizing the value of ecological products, contributing to the achievement of the United Nations’ sixth Sustainable Development Goal, “Clean water and sanitation”. However, accurately evaluating the value of ecological products remains challenging due to their status as public resources. To address this issue, it is essential to assess the spillover value of ecological products, such as housing premiums, as a means to visualize their worth. This study aims to provide an accurate evaluation of the spillover value of ecological products resulting from the eco-restoration of three black-odorous rivers in Wuhan, China. The research utilizes a regression discontinuity design and analyzes data from 2563 secondhand housing transactions to assess the extent to which the ERUR contributes to the appreciation of housing prices. The regression analysis results indicate a significant increase in housing prices, and the robustness tests validate this finding. Therefore, it can be concluded that the eco-restoration efforts generated a spillover value for ecological products. Specifically, the eco-restoration of the three rivers led to an approximate 9%-10% rise in housing prices. Furthermore, the magnitude of the housing premium aligns with the outcomes of a public satisfaction survey, suggesting that the ERUR with the highest level of public satisfaction generated the greatest housing premium. The study demonstrates the value spillover effects of ecological products resulting from the eco-restoration of urban rivers, providing valuable insights for policymakers. These finding can aid in the improvement of ERUR policies, guide urban planning, and promote the provision if high-quality ecological products.

Homeowner politics and housing supply

This paper examines whether homeowner opposition to nearby housing development affects local councillors’ votes on housing bills. Homeowners benefit financially from restricted housing supply through increased housing prices. City councillors, who approve housing development applications, cater to the needs of homeowners who are often long-term resident voters with a financial stake in neighbourhood amenity levels. Using data from Toronto, Canada from 2009 to 2020, we identify housing bills through a machine learning algorithm. We find that councillors who represent more homeowners oppose more housing bills. In particular, councillors are significantly more likely to oppose large housing developments if the project is within their own ward.

Does subway mileage affect urban housing prices? An economic growth perspective

ABSTRACT Studying the mechanism by which urban subway construction in China increases housing prices can help deepen the understanding of the factors that rises in housing prices and may assist the government to conduct reasonable macro-control of the real estate market. This article takes unbalanced panel data from 31 major cities in China as research samples and studies the mechanism by which urban subway construction increases housing prices by influencing urban economic growth. Our findings are as follows: (1) Subway construction promotes urban economic growth, and urban economic growth, from both the demand and supply sides, increases housing prices by increasing the disposable income of urban residents and the purchase price of residential land. (2) Urban subway construction increases city land purchase prices by affecting investors’ expectations of urban land development through the regulating effects of urban economic growth, which in turn increases housing prices. (3) Effective policy measures aimed at managing the speculative impact of metro construction on housing prices need to be viewed for the expectation management of housing and land speculative demand from both the demand side and the supply side.

The economic impact of a casino monopoly: Evidence from Atlantic City

Place-based policies and investments are often targeted at areas in economic decline and sometimes take the form of a granted monopoly (e.g., state flagship universities, professional sports franchises, mega events). After New Jersey voters approved legalized gambling as an economic development strategy to revive the blighted seaside resort town, Atlantic City held a regional monopoly on casinos east of the Mississippi River from 1978 through 1992. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, I find that commercial casinos had an immediate impact on the Atlantic City Metropolitan Area (Atlantic County) in the first five years through an increase in employment (26 percent), wages (9 percent), personal income (5 percent), and house prices (19 percent). The casinos’ positive impact on the metropolitan labor market was persistent and increasing through the early 1990s, but I find evidence that the city’s 1992 monopoly expiration negatively impacted the growth of local wages and personal income through 2000.

An Analysis of Factors Affecting the Housing Market of San Jose Using MLR Model

This article seeks to explain the unstable curve of housing prices in San Jose by analyzing the data of factors that may affect the housing market. By previous research conducted by other scholars, we believe there were five major factors which cause the housing prices to fluctuate, which are construction costs, total population, median income, mortgage rates and crime rates. Introducing multiple linear regression (MLR) as an approach to analyze and based on the monthly data of five-years period, from 2015 to 2019, we find an increase of mortgage rates and construction costs can lead to an increase in housing prices and other factors may not affect the housing prices as expected. However, due to lacking monthly data of certain factors like total population, we use other information associated with the factors to find an approximation of the real monthly data. Hence, while the conclusion provides certain explanations of housing prices for the buyers, it is built on many assumptions and may not perfectly fit the real behaviour of the housing market of San Jose.

ANALISIS PERHITUNGAN ESTIMASI BIAYA PADA RUMAH TINGGAL 2 LANTAI MENGGUNAKAN MATERIAL KONTAINER

The dwindling availability of land has resulted in an increase in the price of residential houses every year, moreover cities with relatively denser populations have an increase in house prices of more than 20% each year. The design of residential houses by utilizing used containers will save material, transportation, and construction costs, so it is hoped that this alternative can be developed to become a sustainable solution. The research was conducted by designing a 2-storey container house with a building area of 172.8 m2 using the SketchUp2022 software and then calculating the estimation cost analysis. The results of the estimation costs show that conatainer house needs cost of IDR 565,476,007.90 or IDR 2,827,380.04/m2 included tax. So that container house can savings of 19.22% - 43.45% when compared to the average price of conventional houses in Indonesia of IDR 4,500,000.00 - IDR 6,000,000.00 per m2 .

부동산학 연구에서 근린의 보행친화성(Walkability)은 중요한가?

This study examines previous studies on the relationship between neighborhood walkability and the real estate to find out what academic discussions have been made between these two issues, and to explore the implications of walkable environments in the real estate studies. For systematic literature review, a selection process was conducted using PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses) guideline, and a total of 23 academic papers were selected. According to the citation report, articles related to walkability in the real estate studies began to appear more than a decade ago, and the number of publications and citations has tended to increase in recent years. In addition, the issue of walkable environment, which was mainly dealt with in the urban planning studies, was also being discussed in the fields of economics and business finance. The 23 articles were largely divided into three thematic groups: walkability and housing prices, walkable and property values, and making walkable environment projects and housing prices. In these three topics, it was found that the walkable environment plays a positive role in increasing housing prices and property values. This study is meaningful in that it comprehensively reviewed previous studies that discussed neighborhood walkability and real estate, which have not been reviewed much from the academic perspective. Based on this study, it is expected that making walkable environment will emerge in the field of real estate industry.

가구수 변화가 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

This paper empirically investigates the effect of the number of households on housing sales prices from a long-run perspective using the DOLS(Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares) model. Estimation results show that most of the variable estimators included in the DOLS model are consistent with the theoretical sign and are statistically significant at the 1% significance level. First, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between housing prices, the number of households, the population, the average wage of regular workers, and the interest rate of mortgage loans. Second, the growth rate coefficient of the number of households representing the number of households showed a positive(+) value, and the t-value was greater than 2, so it was statistically significant at the 1% significance level. This means that a 1% increase in the number of households will increase housing prices by 0.18% in the long run. Therefore, for housing policies to show significant effectiveness in stabilizing housing prices, It is necessary to proactively implement housing policies by developing a prediction and evaluation simulation model based on close monitoring of the trend of growth rate of households.

Unleashing the Casual Impact of House Prices on Air Quality: Evidence from Chinese Cities

With the rapid development of the real estate industry in China, urban air quality is inevitably affected. By using data of Chinese cities located in the Yangtze River Delta from 2009 to 2018, this paper is aim at examining the casual impact of house prices on air quality. By considering the endogenous problems, in this study, first, the birth rate of the previous six years and the area of state-owned land supply per capita in the previous year are taken as instrumental variables of house price. Second, the two-stage least squares method is used to assess the causal impact of house price on air quality. The findings of this study show that there is no significant relationship between urban house prices and air quality, and these results are obtained without considering the endogenous problem. While, after considering the endogenous problem, urban house prices showed a significant negative effect on overall air quality, especially for low administrative level cities. The increase in house prices has hindered the improvement of air quality mainly through the blind-scale expansion of real estate development investments and the inhibitory effect of innovation.

MORTGAGE LENDING MARKET IN EUROPE: DYNAMICS AND FEATURES

The housing market is an important part of any country's economy. The article analyses the main trends in the development of the mortgage lending market in Europe: general dynamics, development of individual segments, lending volumes, interest rates, construction volumes, resource prices, etc. The purpose of this article is to analyse current trends in the development of the housing market. Graphical and statistical analysis methods are used to visualise the trends in investment in residential construction in Europe in 2020-2022, to identify the main external and internal factors behind the market's decline, and to outline development prospects for the coming years. practical implications. Practical implications. The housing investment market is under the influence of new external destabilising factors (pandemic, military aggression), as well as the pressure of factors such as the economic crisis, widespread digitalisation, the fight against black markets, etc. The results of the analysis have identified the main factors currently affecting the European property market: the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, a sharp rise in energy prices, rising inflation and interest rates, a slowdown in economic activity and political uncertainty at global, regional and national level. In general, the development of the housing investment market is characterised by the following trends: high interest rates on mortgage loans; tightening of financing conditions and bank standards, reducing the availability of mortgage loans; slowdown in economic growth and rapid inflation; higher prices for energy and building materials, construction costs and, as a result, an increase in house prices; slowdown in bank lending to households buying houses. Value/originality. An urgent task of modern economic science and practice is the search for ways to attract additional financial resources, mechanisms to ease the financial burden of payments for investors, to reduce and distribute investment risks. It is these circumstances that have determined the growth of the housing investment market segment associated with such innovative forms of investment as digital lending and crowdfunding. According to forecasts, the global digital lending market will grow by up to 12% per year until 2026.

Determinants of housing affordability in the USA

Purpose This study aims to identify the determinants of housing affordability in an effort to inform policy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use econometric analysis to determine variables that impact housing affordability in the USA. Findings The authors find that affordability depends on a number of demographic factors as well as physical characteristics of properties, including average age of homeowner, family size and average dwelling square footage. The authors also find that vacancy rates, increase in house price and median family income also have a significant impact on housing affordability. Additionally, the authors find that households with high-cost burdens are more vulnerable to mortgage rates and property taxes than those with moderate-cost burdens. As a result, changes in economic or policy variables tend to have a disproportionate impact on high-cost-burdened households, and they are more vulnerable to economic and policy shocks. Originality/value To date, the literature has not done a systematic investigation of housing affordability using detailed census data.

The housing status and two-child fertility willingness of floating population: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey

In recent years, China’s fertility rate shows a declining trend with rapid urbanization and increasing housing prices. Based on the China General Social Survey (CGSS) data, for the first time, this paper investigates the effect of housing status on the two-child fertility willingness of China’s floating population using a Probit model combined with the propensity score matching method and the instrumental variable method. The results show that the floating population with self-owned housing has a significantly lower two-child fertility willingness than those living in rented housing. This finding remains robust after addressing the potential endogeneity problem. Moreover, the effect of housing status on the two-child fertility willingness of floating population varies with demographic characteristics. Furthermore, the heterogeneous analysis indicates that the floating population with two or more self-owned housings have higher two-child fertility willingness than those who have only one self-owned housing or who live in rented housing. The married without children and living in self-owned housing have lower two-child fertility willingness than the married with one or more children and living in self-owned housing.

House Bubbles, global imbalances and monetary policy in the US

This paper examines the factors driving housing price exuberance in the United States, specifically the influence of expansionary monetary policies and the global saving glut. We employ medium scale Bayesian VAR and time-varying VAR models to estimate the effects of monetary policy and global saving glut shocks on US housing bubbles. We find that, prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the impact of the saving glut shock is more enduring, powerful, and rapid in generating housing bubbles compared to monetary policy shocks. However, the recent housing boom that commenced in 2019 demonstrates a different pattern. Our results suggest that both monetary policy and the global saving glut contribute to the increase in house prices. Counterfactual policy experiments validate this conclusion.

Impacts of monetary policy on housing prices in five emerging economies during the Covid-19 pandemic

Purpose This paper aims to examine the dynamic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy on real house price indices in five emerging economies, namely, Brazil, China, Thailand, Turkey and South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the local projection method with a panel data set of these countries spanning from January 2020 to July 2021. Findings The number of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases raised housing prices, whereas government containment measures reduced them. Both conventional and unconventional monetary policy implemented by central banks to cope with the COVID-19 helped increase housing prices. These effects were strengthened by the US monetary policy via globalized financial markets. Originality/value First, while previous researches typically concentrated on developed countries, the authors investigate emerging economies where proportionally more people were badly affected by the pandemic. Second, a panel data set of five emerging economies enabled the authors to examine the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 crisis on housing prices. Third, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the influences of easing monetary policy on housing prices in emerging economies during the pandemic.

Cost of credit, mortgage demand and house prices

This paper studies the relationship between mortgage rates and house prices. We exploit a subsidized mortgage program that reduced the mortgage rates of state-owned banks in Turkey during the summer of 2020 as an exogenous shock to provide causal estimates of a decrease in the cost of credit on mortgage demand and house prices. The effects are estimated using a detailed dataset on all house sales with mortgages. We find that a 1 percentage point decrease in annual mortgage rates led to an increase in individual mortgage loans by 3.3% and an increase in house prices by 1.6%.

주택은 인플레이션을 헷지 할 수 있는가?

This paper examines the inflation hedging capacity of Korea’s housing return from January 1987 to December 2022. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditiuonal heteroskedasticity(EGARCH) model and a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression were employed to study the hedging capacity of Korea’s housing return against expected and unexpected inflation over the short run and long run. The results that could be obtained through this paper is as follows. First, The empirical results show a hedge effect on expected inflation only in housing return excluding gold over the short term, but not in unexpected inflation. Second, Over the long run, housing and gold returns provide a positive inflation hedge against expected inflation only. Third, it is found that the price volatility of housing and gold have both a positive asymmetric effect on news shocks. Over the long run, an increase in wages is found to increase housing prices by promoting housing demand, While no similar evidence is found in money supply.Therefore, there is a need to implement a stable wage policy to stabilize the housing market.

Australian housing markets, the COVID-19 pandemic and black swan events

PurposeThis study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19. Homeownership is an important goal for many, and house prices are a significant driver of household wealth and the wider economy. This study argues that excessive liquidity from central banks may be driving house price increases, despite negative changes to fundamental drivers. This study contributes to the literature by examining lending liquidity as a driver of house prices and evaluating the efficacy of fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity during black swan events.Design/methodology/approachThis study aims to examine the impact of quantitative easing on Australian house prices during back swan events using data from 2004 to 2021. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation's Central Bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration among some of the I(1) variables, the auto-regressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.FindingsThe Australian housing market continued to perform well during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the house price index reaching an unprecedented high towards the end of 2021. Research using data from 2004 to 2021 found a consistent positive relationship between house prices and housing finance, as well as population growth and the value of work commenced on residential properties. Other traditional drivers such as the unemployment rate, economic activity, stock prices and income levels were found to be less significant. This study suggests that quantitative easing implemented during the pandemic played a significant role in the housing market's performance.Originality/valueGiven the severity of COVID-19, policymakers have responded with fiscal and monetary measures that are unprecedented in scale and scope. The full implications of these responses are yet to be completely understood. In Australia, the policy interest rate was reduced to a historic low of 0.1%. In the following periods house prices appreciated by over 20%. The efficacy of quantitative easing and associated fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity to mitigate the impact of black swan events such as the pandemic has yet to be tested empirically. This study aims to address that paucity in literature by providing such evidence.

Impact of decentralized long-term rental apartments on the value of community housing--taking Tianjin, China, as an example

PurposeThis study aims to explore the impact of decentralized long-term rental apartments on the value of in-community housing from two perspectives of housing price and rent.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the hedonic model to identify the factors affecting the housing value, and the influence of distributed long-rented apartments on the housing value in the community is analyzed from two aspects of housing price and rent by using the ordinary least square method and propensity score matching method.FindingsThe primary finding indicates that decentralized long-term rental apartments increase housing prices while decreasing general rental housing rents in the community, with the average degree of increase ranging from 0.93% to 2.59% and the average degree of decrease ranging from 2.23% to 4.34%. According to additional research, the prices of houses within communities rise by 0.042% for every 1% increase in the share of decentralized long-term rentals, while the rents for other types of rental property fall by 0.162%.Practical implicationsThe government can regulate the housing market by regulating the access and layout of distributed long-rent apartments.Originality/valueThe findings of this study indicate that the existence and share of distributed long-rent apartments have a heterogeneous impact on the housing price and rent in the community, respectively.

Structural transformation, urbanization, and remittances in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis

Structural transformation and urbanization have increased greatly in developing countries over the last few decades. Migrant remittances—private external financial flows—have also grown phenomenally during this period. The literature reveals a significant causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth and considers urban cities to be the engines of growth. However, investigation into the link between structural transformation, urbanization, and remittances is missing in the literature. This study aims to fill that gap by investigating the relationship between structural transformation, urbanization, remittances, and GDP growth in developing countries. After finding no long-run relationship between the respective variables, this study applies vector autoregressive modelling to determine their short-run dynamic causal relationship, using panel data from 95 developing countries for the period 1980–2018. Its findings suggest that there is a two-way (bi-directional) causal relationship between structural transformation and urbanization, structural transformation and GDP growth, urbanization and GDP growth, and urbanization and remittances. Rapid urbanization can increase housing prices and overall urban living costs, which may increase remittance flows that support consumption. Likewise, increased urban infrastructure development may also attract remittances to real-estate investment, leading to further urbanization.

Rational housing demand bubble

We provide a unified framework with demand for housing over the life cycle and financial frictions to analyze the existence and macroeconomic effects of rational housing bubbles. We distinguish a housing price bubble, defined as the difference between the housing market price and its fundamental value, from a housing demand bubble, which corresponds to a situation where a pure speculative housing demand exists. In an overlapping generation exchange economy, we show that no housing price bubble occurs. However, a housing demand bubble may occur, generating a boom in housing prices and a drop in the interest rate, when households face a binding borrowing constraint. The multiplicity of steady states and endogenous fluctuations can occur when credit market imperfections are moderate. These fluctuations involve transitions between equilibria with and without a housing demand bubble that generate large fluctuations in housing prices consistent with observed patterns. We finally extend the basic framework to a production economy and we show that a housing demand bubble increases housing prices, which can still be characterized by large fluctuations.