Increase In Food Prices Research Articles

Friends and Foes in the Battle Field: Unraveling the History of Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Jigawa State, 1991-2015

This paper examines the nuanced historical trajectories, causes, and effects of farmer-herder conflicts in Jigawa State. It also examines the role of the state government and other bodies in resolving and managing these conflicts, especially from 1991 to 2015. Arguably, the major factors responsible for these conflicts in Jigawa State include effects of the climate change, overpopulation of herders, indiscriminate destruction of unharvested crops by herders, encroachment on cattle routes, and denial of access to water points by farmers. Other contributory factors include occasional assaults on Fulani women, growth of agro-pastoralism, expansion of farming into pastures due to population explosion and technological advancements, cattle rustling, burning of rangelands, overgrazing of fallow lands, floods, and aggressive behavior from competing parties. The conflicts engendered food shortages and increased food prices, loss of lives, destruction of property, social dislocation, and estrangement. In response, the Jigawa State government took measures and implemented policies intending to curtail the phenomenon. This paper unravels the conflict, its consequences, and steps taken by the government to manage it using historical methods and sources such as published and unpublished materials, interviews, and observations.

The Puzzle of Food Inflation: Exploring the Asymmetric Nexus Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Food Prices in the Expanded BRICS Countries.

Fluctuations in economic policy often create ripple effects that can significantly impact commodity prices, including those of essential food items, with potential consequences for food security. The five emerging nations outlined as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have most recently extended by including four new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) on January 1, 2024. Additionally, Argentina and Saudi Arabia are anticipated to join the group soon. This enlargement will alter the geopolitical scenario, potentially fostering fresh collaboration and competition dynamics. This expansion will reshape the geopolitical landscape, possibly leading to new cooperation and competition dynamics. The core objective of the present work is to measure how economic policy uncertainty asymmetrically influences food prices in the expanded BRICS countries. Previous investigations have primarily relied on panel data methods, often overlooking heterogeneities in the policy uncertainty-food prices nexus across different countries. Conversely, this research applies the Quantile-on-Quantile method, which permits a more exact examination, providing a thorough worldwide overview and specific insights tailored to each country. The results indicate a significant increase in food prices due to economic policy uncertainty throughout different quantile ranges in the chosen economies. These outcomes accentuate the essentiality for policymakers to execute all-inclusive appraisals and effectively manage approaches connected to economic policy uncertainty and food inflation.

The Impact of Brazil’s Agricultural Export Boom on Domestic Food Security

Brazil has become a global leader in agricultural exports, supplying major commodities such as soybeans, beef, corn, and sugarcane to international markets, particularly China, the European Union, and the United States. While this export-driven agricultural boom has contributed significantly to economic growth, trade surpluses, and rural employment, it has also raised serious concerns about domestic food security, environmental sustainability, and social inequality. The shift toward large-scale agribusiness and monoculture farming has led to deforestation, displacement of small-scale farmers, increased food prices, and reduced access to staple foods for low-income populations. This paper examines the drivers, consequences, and policy responses related to Brazil’s agricultural export expansion. It analyzes how export prioritization has reduced the availability of domestically consumed staple foods, leading to food inflation and nutritional insecurity. It also explores the environmental costs of farmland expansion, including deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado regions, soil degradation, and water overuse. Social consequences, such as the marginalization of small farmers, rising rural unemployment, and widening economic inequalities, are also discussed. In response to these challenges, the Brazilian government has implemented various policy measures, including food price stabilization programs, land-use regulations, and social assistance initiatives like Bolsa Família and the National School Feeding Program. However, the effectiveness of these strategies remains mixed, as agribusiness interests continue to dominate policy decisions. The paper concludes by evaluating potential solutions, such as stricter environmental protections, incentives for sustainable farming, and trade policies that ensure sufficient domestic food supply while maintaining Brazil’s position as a major agricultural exporter.

Analyzing economic inflation's impact on food security and accessibility through econometric modeling

This study investigates the impact of economic inflation on food security and accessibility through the development of an econometric modeling approach. As inflation rates rise, the purchasing power of consumers diminishes, leading to increased food prices and potentially exacerbating food insecurity. This research aims to quantify the relationship between inflation and food security indicators, such as availability, access, utilization, and stability of food supplies. By employing time-series data and econometric techniques, the model captures the dynamic interactions between inflation rates, food prices, and socioeconomic factors affecting food security. The model incorporates key variables, including consumer price index (CPI), food inflation, income levels, and unemployment rates, to analyze their collective impact on food security across different demographics. The findings indicate that rising inflation significantly correlates with higher food prices, disproportionately affecting low-income households and vulnerable populations. This relationship highlights the necessity of understanding inflation's broader implications on food accessibility, especially in regions where food security is already a pressing issue. Future research directions are proposed, focusing on policy interventions aimed at stabilizing food prices and enhancing food security. Potential strategies include price controls, subsidies for staple foods, and targeted social safety nets for low-income households. Additionally, the study suggests further examination of supply chain factors contributing to food price volatility, such as transportation costs and global market dynamics, which can exacerbate inflation's effects on food security. This research contributes to the literature on food security by providing empirical evidence of inflation's impact on food accessibility and identifying critical areas for policy intervention. By addressing the complex interplay between inflation and food security, stakeholders, including policymakers and food industry leaders, can develop informed strategies to mitigate adverse effects and promote food security in inflationary environments.

Historiography of the novel Min Hikayati Jaddati by Suhayr al-Qalamawy: a study of new historicism

The nineteenth century was distinguished by a period of considerable turbulence and strife between Europe and the Middle East. One such event was the Battle of Alexandria and the subsequent outbreak of the Mahdi Revolution in Sudan. Suhayr al-Qalamawy's historical novel Min Hikayati Jaddati is the object of this research. The novel recounts the experience of a grandmother attempting to ascertain the whereabouts of her three children, who had enlisted in the Egyptian army under the command of Urabi in the conflict against the British. This research examines the economic and political representations in the novel Min Hikayati Jaddati through the lens of new historicism. The research method employed is a qualitative narrative with a new historicism approach model. The findings of this research relate to the strategy of the British forces in paralyzing the Urabi forces in Tal Kabir, which killed many people, thus affecting the political factors at that time, namely the change of power from the hands of Ismail Pasha to Khedive Tawfiq. The economic impact that arose after the war was the increase in food prices, which resulted in the instability of the country's economy and the rise in poverty.

Brexit consequences on supply chains: towards a risk management framework

ABSTRACT This article investigates Brexit-induced consequences on supply chains and logistics – as well as potential solutions and strategies by carrying out a content analysis through a literature review, the first to our knowledge. Our findings reveal that Brexit-induced consequences for supply chains include increased customs duty rate, labour supply issues, increased costs related to expected delays, tariff and nontariff barriers, added complexity to guarantee food safety, authenticity or security, increased food prices, as well as low-skilled households carrying the major load. Our findings regarding typical supply chain strategies or solutions for abovementioned Brexit-induced consequences include supply chain redesign, relocation of operations and markets, changing sourcing countries or regions, new information and communication technologies solutions such as traceability and blockchains, vertical and horizontal collaboration, resilience, better risk-recovery strategies, as well as the switch to ‘other’ metrics. Another result refers to the fact that we observe only a low level of theoretical grounding in (supply chain) risk management literature among the considered articles.

Climate Change and its Economic Impacts in Mexico

Introduction: Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century, due to its global causes and consequences and its heterogeneous and asymmetric regional impacts, with those who contribute the least to the phenomenon receiving the greatest negative impacts. Mexico has a minor contribution to climate change in terms of greenhouse gas emissions; however, it is highly vulnerable to its negative effects. Climate change is a long-term global phenomenon, with a high level of uncertainty. The economic analysis of climate change has a high level of risk, which makes it a process where risk must be managed. Despite these characteristics and limitations, it is a fundamental instrument for public policy and society since it identifies options and alternatives to build sustainable development strategies and protect natural resources and ecosystems for future generations beyond their economic value. However, it must be understood that projections are not one-off forecasts but only prospective scenarios. Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of Climate Change for Mexico during this century, according to the different scenarios of the IPCC AR6. Methodology: The methodology consists of presenting a set of regional projections of climate variables under the IPCC's AR6 climate change scenarios, and estimating the possible impacts of climate change on Mexico's economic sector. Results: Regional models show temperature increases between 0.5 and 5 °C, while changes in precipitation will range between -20.3% and 13.5%. Low soil moisture, negative changes in vegetation (NDVI) and drought (SPEI12) will lead to soil moisture deficits, water stress, sparse vegetation and semi-permanent drought. The entire country is expected to be subjected to moderate (Central and Southern) to extremely severe (Northern) droughts that will worsen by the end of the century. Climate change will have effects on crop yields, livestock reproduction, production of meat and its derivatives throughout the country in a differentiated way, with increases in food prices. It will also cause a deficit of land suitable for agricultural activities; and water availability. Diseases associated with climate change will become more acute by the end of the century, with increases in health spending. It is estimated that the investment of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the health sector would go from 6.25% to more than 18%, which could be unfeasible for the national economy. Based on the likely temperatures by the end of the century, it is estimated that the risk of extinction of species will range between 3 and 48% in terrestrial, oceanic and coastal ecosystems, the risk of biodiversity loss will go from moderate to very high. The total costs of climate change reach 2050, with a discount rate of 4%, values that range between 9 and 13% of GDP in the most likely scenarios for the end of the century and reach between 28 and 36% of GDP at a discount rate of 0.5%, while by 2100 with a discount rate of 4%. around 16.5% of GDP and reach maximums between 69 and 76% of GDP at a discount rate of 0.5%. Conclusion: The results allow us to conclude that climate change has significant impacts on the Mexican economy and that the costs of inaction are higher. Thus, it is more efficient to act now than to leave the problem to future generations, beyond the ethical considerations that it implies.

Foreign experience of state regulation of food security

The world food problem is an economic fact that can lead to significant political consequences. Many experts believe that a spike in food prices is at the root of world revolutions and catastrophes. For example, in the Middle East and Africa, the poor spend about 50 per cent of their income on food, which means that rising prices of basic foodstuffs guarantee an incredibly high impact on household expenditure. At the heart of the global food problem, recurrent food crises, is the advancement of research results in the agro-industrial sector, which prevents the reduction of food prices, even when technical advances make it possible to increase yields in these countries. The current food problem in the development of mankind is that due to irrational and over-intensive use of natural resources, increasing demand for livestock products, increasing per capita food consumption, as well as other factors, there is a steady increase in food prices, which contributes to the emergence of threats to food security in developing countries, including the poorest populations of developed and developing countries. In addition to the above, the problem of adulterated products, the growing trend of popularisation of ‘harmful’ products, the increasing rate of sales of products made with the use of GMOs, and in these conditions, ensuring the safety of food and food raw materials becomes the primary task of the state, as these factors affect the life and health of the population, the preservation of the gene pool of the nation.

Citrus greening, retail fruit prices, and household welfare: A demand system approach

Abstract Pests and diseases like citrus greening that threaten agricultural productivity also pose a risk to consumers. Reductions in food supply due to outbreaks and spread could increase food prices. We model U.S. household fruit demand using a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and data from Circana’s 2020 and 2021 household panel. Price and income elasticity estimates reveal how household behavior might adjust with shocks to citrus and other fruit prices. Shocks to retail fruit prices can be from either citrus greening or other phenomena such as adverse weather. We also use compensating variation to estimate the impact that changes in fruit prices could have on consumer welfare.

Drought Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

The escalation in both frequency and severity of drought events has significantly amplified the vulnerability of numerous countries, particularly in developing ones, imposing substantial economic, environmental, and social pressures. This article presents a systematic review of drought occurrences in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), examining historical trends, current impacts, and projected future implications. Through this comprehensive assessment, a clear trend of intensifying drought phenomena emerges across SSA, leading to crop failures, drying of water sources, loss of pasture, food shortages, and an increase in food prices. This review also highlights the concerning potential for worsening conditions in certain regions, resulting in consequences such as migration, food insecurity, malnutrition, family disintegration, crop losses, and increased disease prevalence, notably HIV/AIDS. This study further reveals that current adaptation measures by governments and NGOs should be improved to effectively adapt to the diverse impacts of drought, and it contributes to a deeper understanding of drought dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa and assesses its critical impacts on food security and social well-being. It also evaluates adaptation measures across different countries, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses and enabling quick identification of areas for improvement. Additionally, it informs resilience-building efforts in vulnerable communities.

Gıda Fiyatlarındaki Artışların İncelenmesi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

In this study, 5 different econometric models are constructed by determining the variables affecting food price increases in Turkey. Monthly data for the years 2005-2023 are used. The coefficients of the models are estimated by Dynamic Least Squares method. TUFE_GIDA (food and non-alcoholic beverages series), TUFE_IMG (CPI unprocessed food series) and producer prices of agricultural products (UFE_TARIM) are used to represent the food prices variable. In all models, the exchange rate increases food prices. Similarly, increases in diesel prices increase TUFE_GIDA and TUFE_IMG. As expected, increases in the export volume of agricultural products increase food prices, while increases in the import volume of agricultural products increase food prices. While increases in producer prices of agricultural products increase TUFE_IMG, increases in producer food prices increase TUFE_FOOD. World food prices have an increasing effect on TUFE_GIDA. The increase in fertilizer prices increases producer prices of agricultural products. The 2008 and 2018 economic crises and the dummy variable used to represent the Covid-19 pandemic also increase food prices. Keywords: Dynamic Least Squares method, Price Indices.

The USSR food crisis in XX century: the middle of 1950s - the first half of 1960s

The article is devoted to nutrition of population in the USSR during governing of N. S. Khrushchev in 1955-1964. It is demonstrated that despite continuation by new regime implementation of administrative command strategy of managing national economy, radical changes in principles, tactics and methods of decision-making led to diametrically opposite, negative results in population food supply carried out earlier in the country by the former Stalinist leadership. Numerous complaints of people about inability to feed the family are presented. The low purchasing possibility of population with simultaneous shortage of products in stores has been proved. It is established that food crisis of the middle of 1950s - early 1960s resulted from imbalance between supply and demand in field of food delivery. The government's ill-conceived measures on opening up virgin lands, elimination of machine tractor stations that were basis of agro-industrial complex, contradictory actions limiting plots of land of peasants, passion for planting corn, increase of agricultural and income taxes from villagers, etc. All this caused problems in nutrition of population. The possibility of falsified data in documents prepared for government on food issues, even classified as secret, is claimed, due to lies prevailing in country and conjuncture atmosphere. The negative assessment of Khrushchev's reforms by population, nostalgia for Stalin's times with constant price cuts and salary increases are indicated. The norms of products needed for balanced diet and real situation with annual consumption per capita in the 1960s are calculated. It is emphasized that in the USSR emergence of workers protests occurred due to increase of state food prices and low wages. The culmination of these processes became shooting by troops in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, of peaceful demonstration suppressed by direct order of Head of state in June 1962. The multiple differences, concealed by the authorities, in prices for basic foodstuffs of Soviet citizens and population in capitalist countries, in favor of the latter. The conclusion ids made that utopia and lies, economic voluntarism were cornerstones of paradigm prevailing in the Khrushchev era, that resulted in food crisis and the half-starved existence of majority of inhabitants of the USSR.

Importance of geopolitical risk in volatility structure: New evidence from biofuels, crude oil, and grains commodity markets

This paper aims to explore the complex linkages and evolving structure of price volatility in the global oil, biofuels, and grain commodity markets during periods of global turbulence. With the growing urgency for energy stability amid climate change, biofuels are gaining traction as a viable alternative energy source. However, their production can significantly impact essential commodities like grains and vegetable oils, increasing food prices and heightened market volatility. We introduced a TVP-VAR frequency connectedness method to address this, analyzing data from January 1, 2013, to September 29, 2023. Our approach offers a fresh perspective on market dynamics and geopolitical risks.The study underscores the growing influence of agricultural shocks on energy markets, particularly within the ethanol sector. It confirms that the Russia-Ukraine war, a significant geopolitical event, has had a profound and enduring impact on the interconnectedness of these markets across various timeframes and frequencies. We offer concrete, actionable policy recommendations to mitigate the transmission of market shocks within the energy and food sectors, thereby bolstering investor and policymaker confidence and facilitating informed decision-making.

EU food price inflation amid global market turbulences during the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine War

AbstractSince the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine War, global food markets have been in turmoil. Agricultural input and energy prices doubled between 2020 and 2022, with immediate consequences on food accessibility. We examine the drivers of the EU food inflation patterns, and how trade integration shapes these dynamics. We find that food price inflation has been mainly driven by surges in agricultural production costs and, to a lesser extent, by global food price increases. Trade openness has not exacerbated the inflating dynamics during this period. We conclude with reflections on inflationary, production, and trade policies.

Comparison of crude oil price transmission to food commodities for biofuel source and non-biofuel source

Introduction: World crude oil prices are linked to food commodity prices as input costs for the production distribution and development of biofuels. The relationship between increasing crude oil prices and food prices is in one way; i.e. an increase in world crude oil prices will trigger an increase in food prices and not the other way around. This study aimed to analyze and compare price transmission and integration of cross-commodity prices between the price of crude oil and the price of corn (raw material for biofuels) and the price of rice (non biofuels raw material). Methods: This study used the VARX (Vector Autoregression with Exogenous variables) method with corn prices and rice prices as the endogenous variables, while crude oil prices as exogenous variables. Results: Price transmission and integration of cross-commodity prices occur in crude oil to corn commodities. In contrast, there was no price transmission and price integration between crude oil and rice. Commodities that are directly related to the development of biofuels experience a more significant impact on price changes. Conclusion: Energy commodity prices are connected to food commodity prices, particularly corn. Therefore, if crude oil price rises, so does the corn. Highly dependent corn-importing countries have to be aware. Measures engendering food security are key to any country, particularly promoting domestic production and improving food storage and distribution systems to reduce the risk of food price spikes. The policy implications emerging from the one-directional causality between oil and food prices would typically depend on the specific nature of the two markets and the goals of policy intervention.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES IN THE EURO AREA

Over the past five years, global economic developments have been accompanied by a number of challenges. After a period of economic development, the global economy is facing a significant challenge caused by the COVID-19 crisis. There have been factory closures, border closures and supply chain disruptions. All this is reflected in the EU and the euro area. This was followed by a period of recovery and accelerating inflation. The war on the territory of Ukraine is also having a significant impact on inflationary processes. This further jeopardises the supply of energy resources and their prices begin to rise at a very high rate. The shock of rising energy prices has also been reflected in sharp increases in food prices. In the euro area, there have been periods when food prices have risen by more than 17% on an annual basis and energy products by almost 60% in some months. All these developments highlight the need to examine the links between energy and food prices. This is necessary in order to be able to take quick decisions in the event of new volatility in energy prices. The aim of the study is to establish a causal relationship between the dynamics of energy and food prices and the time lag over which food prices react to increases in energy prices. A correlation analysis is carried out and a causal relationship between the two indicators is established by regression analysis at different time lags. The hypothesis tested is that, over the last five years, there has been a strong month-to-month correlation between energy prices and food prices with a lag of six months. For the purpose of regression analysis and hypothesis testing, monthly data for food inflation and inflation for the group Electricity, gas and other fuels have been used. The data are taken from the structure of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat. The detailed regression analysis shows that there is a statistically significant linear relationship between the price indices of the two product groups with a lag of six months. The Granger causality test confirms the results of the dynamic, correlation and regression analysis. The results of the test show not only the existence of a causal relationship, but also the ability of energy price changes to predict food price dynamics. All this leads to the conclusion that in periods of significant changes in energy prices, food prices can be expected to follow similar dynamics within six months. This relationship could be used both for forecasting and for taking specific economic measures.

Different strategies of crop diversification between poor and non-poor farmers: Concepts and evidence from Tanzania

Crop diversification, or growing multiple crops in farmland, has received attention as a risk-reducing strategy for smallholders. This study attempts to show that poor and non-poor farmers adopt different strategies of crop diversification. We first conceptualize farmers’ heterogeneous motivations for crop diversification by introducing a subsistence constraint into a utility maximization problem under uncertainty. Using the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, we then examine whether past experiences of shocks affect the adoption of crop diversification differently between poor and non-poor farmers. We rely on a threshold model to estimate heterogeneous impacts between poor and non-poor farmers. We find that poor farmers adopt crop diversification for robust food securities in response to drought/flood and large increases in food prices for purchase. In contrast, non-poor farmers adopt crop diversification to stabilize market income in response to large increases in input prices and large declines in crop prices for sale.

Potential response of Mexican consumers to a Ban on genetically modified Maize imports

Mexico enacted a decree to ban the sale of genetically modified (GM) maize seed and maize for human consumption. Maize is particularly important to the average diet in Mexico as it is the main feed for the primary source of protein (poultry) and the main ingredient for the primary source of calories (corn tortillas). This study aimed to assess consumer awareness of the decree, support for the decree, and sensitivity of support given possible economic outcomes related to the decree. Additionally, we estimate the premiums consumers were willing to pay (WTP) for non-GM products relative to GM products (i.e., chicken meat, eggs, and corn tortillas). Results show that 54% of the Mexicans were unaware of the ban and that 77% of those aware supported the ban. Many consumers were willing to pay premiums to cover potential price increases due to the ban; however, not all low-income consumers would pay the potential premiums. Focusing on low-income consumers is particularly important, given they will likely be affected disproportionately more by the burden of increased food prices.

Analisis Kritis Studi Literatur Tentang Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Ketahanan Pangan

Climate change impacts global food security through reduced crop yields, disruptions in supply chains, decreased food quality, and pressure on water availability. This study reviews the literature on the effects of climate change on food security and finds that rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events significantly affect food production, distribution, and accessibility. Crop yield reductions are attributed to higher temperatures shortening the growing period of plants, while climate change also affects the nutritional quality of crops and exacerbates water crises. Disruptions in supply chains lead to increased food prices, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups. Proposed adaptation strategies include developing climate-resilient crop varieties, improving water use efficiency, and implementing sustainable agricultural practices, alongside developing supportive policies for food security

Field evaluation and characterization of a novel biostimulant for broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) cultivation under drought and salt stress which increases antioxidant, glucosinolate and phytohormone content

Anthropogenic global warming is affecting crop yield and thus compromising food security. Drought and salinization of the irrigation water or soil are increasingly frequent in most arable land, specifically in arid and semiarid areas such as the Mediterranean basin. Many crops have been displaced or their yield has plummeted in recent years, causing food shortages and price increases. In a context of global population growth and reduction in the availability of natural resources used in agriculture, finding novel tools that help farmers to maintain yield in an increasingly arid and saline scenario is of pivotal importance. This is particularly important in organic agriculture, where the number of available tools is very limited. Biostimulants are substances or microorganisms of natural origin whose function is to stimulate plant processes related to nutrient absorption, nutrient use efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stress or the quality of the agricultural products obtained. In the present work, we have evaluated, in field, the agronomic effectiveness of a novel biostimulant formulation in a cruciferous crop of great interest in the Mediterranean basin (broccoli) under control conditions, water and salt stress. Our research has shown that our product had a positive effect on broccoli production and in delaying flowering time. We have also found that the application of our biostimulant increased enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant defense under drought conditions. Similarly, when exposed to salinity, the biostimulant increased the concentration of different phytohormones and glucosinolates. Taken together, our biostimulant increases the tolerance of broccoli to salt stress and water limitation by increasing the antioxidant response, the level of glucosinolates and eliciting the hormonal response.