Increase In Population Growth Rate Research Articles

Planning Of The Main Distribution Network Of Gerokgak Distribution Reservoir In The Burana Drinking Water Supply System (Spam), Buleleng Regency

The increasing population growth rate in Bali Province has led to the depletion of water sources, while the demand for providing clean drinking water continues to rise each year. To improve water supply, the Central Government, Provincial Government, and Local Authorities are undertaking an effort to construct the Titab Dam with an associated water supply system called the Burana Drinking Water Supply System (SPAM Burana) with a flow rate of 350 liters per second. Considering this situation, a research study is needed to analyze the water demand over the next 15 years based on the projected population using Arithmetic, Geometric, and Least Square Methods in five service areas: Penyabangan Village, Musi Village, Sanggalangit Village, Gerokgak Village, and Patas Village. According to the analysis results, the Geometric Method was used for population projection, with the smallest standard deviation of 185.368 and the coefficient of correlation (r) closest to 1, with a value of 0.877. The water demand for the next 15 years was found to be 82.39 liters per second in the five service areas. To optimize the provision of clean drinking water, the analysis recommends using GIP (Galvanized Iron Pipe) with diameters of 40cm, 20cm, and 25cm, starting from the Gerokgak Reservoir to Patas Village, with a total distribution pipeline length of 15,438 meters. WaterNet, a computer program, is required for simulating water flow in the distribution network with minimal relative errors. The WaterNet analysis results showed that the criteria for flow velocity (0.3 – 1 m/s), headloss (< 10 m/km), and pressure (15 – 100 m for GIP) were all met. The required capacity of the Gerokgak Reservoir for the water supply service is 1400m3.

Urbanization Heat Flux Modeling Confirms It Is a Likely Cause of Significant Global Warming: Urbanization Mitigation Requirements

Recent ground-based measurements find the magnitude of the urbanization effect on the global average annual mean surface air temperature corresponds to an urbanization contribution of 12.7%. It is important to provide modeling to help understand these results as there are conflicting concerns. This study models the global warming contribution that urbanization heat fluxes (UHF) can make due to anthropogenic heat release (AHR), and solar heating of impermeable surface areas (ISAs), with additional secondary effects. Results help explain and support ground-based observations. Climate models typically omit anthropogenic heat release (AHR) as warming estimates are below 1%. In agreement, the baseline assessment in this paper has similar findings. However, in this study, the methods of climate amplification estimates (MCAE) with data-aided physics-based amplification models are used. When the MCAE are applied at the global and microclimate levels that consider greenhouse gases (GHGs), feedback, and other secondary effects; the results show that AHR fluxes can amplify, increasing to have an estimated global warming (GW) influence of 6.5% from 1950 to 2022 yielding a 0.9% decade−1 increase. This increasing rate due to energy consumption is found as anticipated to be reasonably correlated to the increasing population growth rate over this time. Furthermore, using the MCAEs, this paper studies heat fluxes assessment due to solar heating of unshaded impermeable surfaces including likely secondary amplification effects. Impermeable surface areas (ISAs) such as asphalt roads, roofs, and building sides have been reported with high land surface contact temperatures (LSCTs) relative to non-ISAs and significantly found to contribute to urbanization warming. Results indicate that high-temperature unshaded impermeable surfaces (including building sides) are estimated to average around 10–11 °C above the earth’s ambient temperature of 14.5 °C (showing albedo ISA estimates between 0.133 and 0.115 respectively); the ISA heat fluxes with secondary effects are estimated to have about a GW influence of 6.5%. This is broken down with average contributions of 4.0% from urban ISAs and 2.5% from rural ISA heat fluxes. Asphalt road ISA heat fluxes are estimated to have about a 1.1% global warming influence. Then the total UHF effect from ISAs and AHR with secondary effects is assessed in modeling to yield a combined average GW influence of 13% helping to confirm ground-based measurement results. Several key adjustment values were used for shading, cloud coverage, and rural-to-urban ISA ratios. Microclimate GHGs and related water vapor feedback (WVF) were assessed to increase urban warming by about 50%. As well an assessment of water vapor and radiation increases from UHF is provided. This study also shows the need to incorporate urbanization heat fluxes with secondary effects into climate models and indicates the necessity for Paris Agreement urban heat flux mitigation goals. Results also found that given average climate conditions, it is possible to mitigate much of the UHI effect with an albedo increase of 0.1 that is anticipated to lower the average impermeable surface temperatures by about 9 °C. Studies show this can be accomplished with cost-effective cool roads and roofs. Although roads are only estimated to occupy 14% of ISAs, changing roads from asphalt to concrete-type surfaces would improve reflectivity by about a factor of 5 and is estimated to mitigate about 5.5% of global warming. Unfortunately, the current overuse of black asphalt on pavements and roofs is highly dangerous to our environment causing UHI increases in heatwaves, excessive temperatures, and global warming issues and should be banned. Asphalt usage also reduces opportunities for solar geoengineering of urbanization.

An analysis of the Influence of Customer Journey Mapping in Customer Retention Design on Shoppe E-commerce Using the Service Quality Method

Technological developments accompanied by increasing population growth rates in Indonesia affect people's lives in meeting their daily needs. With e-commerce that is present as an innovation in the use of technology and internet network assistance, it makes it easier for people to buy and sell goods online. Shoppe is one of the e-commerce with the most sales and visitors in Indonesia as of 2022 according to a national survey conducted by BOI Research. This research was conducted to analyze and provide information about the influence of the customer journey map consisting of the stages of discovery, use, and loyalty with 5 dimensions of service quality Service Quality Method which includes reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, and tangibles on customer strategy design retention on Shopee e-commerce. The results of this study obtained the results that there is a positive relationship between the discovery and use process on customer loyalty in making purchases. Companies can evaluate this stage in designing strategies to gain customer trust and loyalty in order to make repeat purchases.

Interactions between fitness components across the life cycle constrain competitor coexistence.

Numerous mechanisms can promote competitor coexistence. Yet, these mechanisms are often considered in isolation from one another. Consequently, whether multiple mechanisms shaping coexistence combine to promote or constrain species coexistence remains an open question. Here, we aim to understand how multiple mechanisms interact within and between life stages to determine frequency-dependent population growth, which has a key role stabilizing local competitor coexistence. We conducted field experiments in three lakes manipulating relative frequencies of two Enallagma damselfly species to evaluate demographic contributions of three mechanisms affecting different fitness components across the life cycle: the effect of resource competition on individual growth rate, predation shaping mortality rates, and mating harassment determining fecundity. We then used a demographic model that incorporates carry-over effects between life stages to decompose the relative effect of each fitness component generating frequency-dependent population growth. This decomposition showed that fitness components combined to increase population growth rates for one species when rare, but they combined to decrease population growth rates for the other species when rare, leading to predicted exclusion in most lakes. Because interactions between fitness components within and between life stages vary among populations, these results show that local coexistence is population specific. Moreover, we show that multiple mechanisms do not necessarily increase competitor coexistence, as they can also combine to yield exclusion. Identifying coexistence mechanisms in other systems will require greater focus on determining contributions of different fitness components across the life cycle shaping competitor coexistence in a way that captures the potential for population-level variation.

The Influence of Resident's Income Level on Rusunawa Perceptions of Satisfaction, Convenience, and Management

The increasing population growth rate causes a city to face the problem of limited land for residential development. Housing is a fundamental demand of the community that must be fulfilled, especially for low-income people. Through the construction of flats named Rusunawa, the government tries to fulfill the demand for decent housing and anticipates the emergence of slum settlements. In its development, there are Rusunawa whose management is not optimal in maintenance which results in unkempt conditions and causes residents to not get satisfaction and convenience in occupying housing. This study aims to analyze the level of satisfaction, the convenience of residents, and the management of Rusunawa. It is based on the income level of residents and identifies strategies for service improvement of Rusunawa management. This study uses primary data to obtain the level of satisfaction, comfort, and management of flats based on income levels. The data collected is preliminary data consisting of data from questionnaires to the residents of the apartments and data from interviews with the Rusunawa management agency. The method in this study uses a mixed method based on qualitative methods with interview techniques and quantitative methods with survey techniques (questionnaires). The results show that there is a significant difference in the level of building convenience based on the income level of the residents of the Rusunawa. The management of the Rusunawa has not reached its maximum goals related to implementing the Rusunawa regulation. Runaway development programs are required, such as providing counseling, participating in social activities regarding environmental care, and conducting socialization with residents, especially the priority aspects of unique flats for low-income communities.

KAJIAN PENENTUAN PRIORITAS RUANG TERBUKA HIJAU BERDASARKAN FENOMENA URBAN HEAT ISLAND DI KOTA CIREBON

Urban Heat Island (UHI) is characterized by an increase in surface temperature that occurs in downtown areas which is higher than in sub-urban areas. Cirebon City in 2018 - 2023 years has an increased population growth rate of 2.9% per year and ± 55% of built-up land. Cirebon city also one of the 9 cities in West Java where there has been an increase in temperature where the UHI phenomenon occurred in 1989 – 2021 years with the downtown and sub-urban areas having a surface temperature difference of 3°C. So it is necessary to have a study regarding determining the priority of green open space reduce the effect of UHI in Cirebon City. The research methodology used is Landsat 8 image processing and with helping of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine priority green open space locations. The parameters used are vegetation index, population density and comfort index. The purpose of this study is to determine the priority locations in increasing the area of green open space to reduce the UHI effect based on the level of suitability of the Cirebon City Rencana Detil Tata Ruang (RDTR). The results of the study show that areas that are not suitable according to the RDTR of Cirebon City are the top priority that needs to be done. The priority is reforestation covering an area of ± 2,481.22 ha around built-up land by modifying green open space in the form of implementing green infrastructure (GI) .

Non-consumptive effects of predation risk on prey population regulations: empirical evidence from the invasive spider mite Tetranychus ludeni

Tetranychus ludeni Zacher is an invasive pest from Europe. It infests more than 300 plant species, including many economically important crops such as bean Phaseolus vulgaris L. (Fabales: Fabaceae), eggplant Solanum melongena L. (Solanales: Solanaceae), and many other cucurbitaceous plants. Gotoh et al. (2015) predict that this species could replace T. urticae to become a major crop pest in the world. It is often assumed that the success of biological control using predators is achieved through direct predation. However, it is still largely unknown whether predation risk could contribute to the effectiveness of prey biological control. In the present study we investigated the effects of cues from the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis and killed T. ludeni on life history traits and offspring fitness of T. ludeni, providing novel knowledge for evaluation of the non-consumptive contribution to the biological control of T. ludeni and for future development of new spider mite control methods using these cues. We demonstrated that the cues from the predators and killed prey shortened the longevity by more than 23% and oviposition period by more than 35% and reduced the number of eggs laid by more than 31% in T. ludeni females. These cues also significantly reduced the intrinsic rate of increase and net population growth rate and prolonged the time to double the population size. Furthermore, in response to predator cues females significantly delayed their lifetime production of daughters and laid significantly smaller eggs. Offspring from predator-exposed mothers developed significantly more slowly. Our findings strongly suggest that the non-consumptive mortality caused by cues from both predators and killed prey can significantly reduce prey fitness, suppressing their population and lowering their damage to crops. The earlier prey death caused by these cues could result from the energic costs of natural enemy avoidance (Luong et al. 2017), decrease of foraging rate or food intake (Hermann & Thaler 2014) and increase of oxidative damage (Janssens & Stoks 2013). The present study partially supports previous reports that non-consumptive impacts of predation risk on prey are transgenerational (Tariel et al. 2020). Our study provides critical information for evaluation of biological control effectiveness using predators and paves the way for identification of chemical odors from the predator and killed prey and development of new materials and methods for the control of spider mite pests.

Predator- and killed prey-induced fears bear significant cost to an invasive spider mite: Implications in pest management.

The success of biological control using predators is normally assumed to be achieved through direct predation. Yet it is largely unknown how the predator- and killed prey-induced stress to prey may contribute to biological control effectiveness. Here, we investigate variations in life-history traits and offspring fitness of the spider mite Tetranychus ludeni in response to cues from the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis and killed T. ludeni, providing knowledge for evaluation of the nonconsumptive contribution to the biological control of T. ludeni and for future development of novel spider mite control measures using these cues. Cues from predators and killed prey shortened longevity by 23-25% and oviposition period by 35-40%, and reduced fecundity by 31-37% in T. ludeni females. These cues significantly reduced the intrinsic rate of increase (rm ) and net population growth rate (R0 ), and extended time to double the population size (Dt ). Predator cues significantly delayed lifetime production of daughters. Mothers exposed to predator cues laid significantly smaller eggs and their offspring developed significantly more slowly but these eggs had significantly higher hatch rate. Predator- and killed prey-induced fears significantly lower the fitness of T. ludeni, suggesting that these nonconsumptive effects can contribute to the effectiveness of biological control to a great extent. Our study provides critical information for evaluation of biological control effectiveness using predators and paves the way for identification of chemical odors from the predator and killed prey, and development of new materials and methods for the control of spider mite pests. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SAME DAY SERVICE PROGRAMIN REALIZING THE LEVEL OF SERVICE QUALITY (TMP) PT. PLN (PERSERO) PADANG PANJANG CUSTOMER SERVICE UNIT

The increasing demand for electricity by customers caused by various factors such as WFH (work from home), the development of technology that requires electrical energy as its driving force and the increasing population growth rate makes PT. PLN as the main electricity provider need a solution to answer these problems by implementing a program same day service. PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Padang Panjang is the smallest service unit of PT. PLN (Persero) which organizes the Same Day Service program. The Same Day Service program is presented to cut service time to be more effective. The purpose of this research was to determine and analyze the Implementation of the Same Day Service Program and its inhibiting factors. This research used the theory of policy implementation proposed by George C. Edward III which consists of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure. The research method used is qualitative with data collection techniques through observation, interviews and documentation. The results of this research indicate that the implementation of the Same Day Service Program at PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Padang Panjang has not run optimally. The inhibiting factors for the Same Day Service Program are the lack of socialization of the implementor to the program targets, the lack of human and financial resources and the mechanism set out in the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) which does not pay attention to the inhibiting aspects in the program implementation process.

Climate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap

AbstractDisturbances elicit both positive and negative effects on organisms; these effects vary in their strength and their timing. Effects of disturbance interval (i.e., the length of time between disturbances) on population growth will depend on both the timing and strength of positive and negative effects of disturbances. Climate change can modify the relative strengths of these positive and negative effects, leading to altered optimal disturbance intervals (the disturbance interval at which population growth rate is highest) and changes in the sensitivity of population growth rate to disturbance interval. While we know that climate may alter impacts of disturbance in some systems, we have a poor understanding of which effects of disturbance and which vital rates might drive an altered response to disturbance interval in a changing climate. We use demographic monitoring of natural populations of Dionaea muscipula, the Venus flytrap, that have experienced natural and managed fires, combined with realistic past and future climate projections, to construct climate‐ and fire‐driven integral projection models (IPMs). We use these IPMs to compare the effect of fire return interval (FRI) on population growth rate in past and future climates. To dissect the mechanisms driving FRI response, we then construct IPMs with demographic data from an experimental manipulation of fire effects (ash addition, neighbor removal) and an accidental fire. Our results show that an FRI of 10 years is optimal for D. muscipula in past climate conditions, but a longer FRI (12 years) is optimal in future climate conditions. Further, deviations from optimal FRI reduce population growth rate dramatically in the past climate, but this reduction is muted in a future climate (future minus past sensitivity = 0.006, 95% CI [0.002, 0.011]). Finally, our experimental work suggests that fire effects are driven in part by positive, additive effects of competitor removal and ash addition immediately following a fire; for one population, both these treatments significantly increased population growth rate. Our work suggests that climate change can alter the response of populations to disturbance, highlighting the need to consider the interacting effects of multiple abiotic drivers when projecting future population growth and geographical distributions.

Study on Weeds Abundance on Rice Fields in Mycorrhizal Inoculation and Different Planting Methods

<span lang="EN-US">The increasing demand for rice and the increasing population growth rate require sustainable rice production. Direct seeding of rice (DSR) combined with the use of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) is needed to achieve sustainable food production. This study aims to determine the effect of the planting method and mycorrhizal inoculation on the diversity, composition and dominance of weeds in a rice field for the sustainability of agricultural production. The research used a split-plot design with three replications. The main plot was the planting method consisting of on row, drum seeder and transplanting, while the subplot was mycorrhizal inoculation divided into with mycorrhizal inoculation and without mycorrhizal inoculation. The observed variables were <span>light</span><span> penetration, weeds population, weeds composition, weeds biomass, </span>summed dominance ratio<em> </em>and community coefficient. The results showed that there were 34 kinds of weeds consisting of 13 families and the dominant weed was annual weeds, most of which were broadleaf weeds. The dominant weed was <em>Alternanthera sessilis</em> (L.) R. Br. ex DC. (sessile joyweed). The planting methods affected the weed population in 24 days after sowing (DAS) and the composition of broadleaf weeds in 24 DAS but did not affect weed biomass. The AMF inoculation did not affect weed population, composition, or biomass. It is necessary to find mycorrhizal species that can affect weed growth.</span>

Household Pharmaceutical Waste Management Practices in the Johannesburg Area, South Africa.

Pharmaceutical wastes are expected to increase given the increasing population growth rates and rapidly rising economic burden of human diseases. This challenge calls for appropriate measures for the management of such hazardous wastes. The purpose of this survey was to document and investigate existing practices for the handling, storage, and disposal of household pharmaceutical wastes (HPWs) in the Johannesburg area. Primary data were collected via online surveys with self-administered questionnaires completed by respondents. The research found that 77% (n = 286) of respondents claimed some knowledge about HPWs. Types of medicines that contributed to HPWs included painkillers or analgesics (73%, n = 270) and drugs for treating colds and flu-related illnesses (52%; n = 193). Although there were a few exceptions, the respondents generally exhibited strong disagreements with environmentally unfriendly and health-threatening disposal practices. Moreover, most participants were willing to return expired medicines to pharmacies (40.7%, n = 151), whereas only 8.6% (n = 32) opposed this solution. Awareness levels tended to vary with employment status, educational qualifications, and place of residence. However, place of residence and household size did not correlate with types of pharmaceutical waste. Additionally, the study found that education attainments significantly influenced the willingness of respondents to return pharmaceutical wastes. Finally, there were no significant differences amongst respondents in terms of waste disposal practices. Altogether, the findings suggest the need for targeted efforts to bring about sustainable waste management at a household level.

Demographic responses of nearly extirpated endangered mountain caribou to recovery actions in Central British Columbia.

Recovering endangered species is a difficult and often controversial task that challenges status quo land uses. Southern Mountain caribou are a threatened ecotype of caribou that historically ranged in southwestern Canada and northwestern USA and epitomize the tension between resource extraction, biodiversity conservation, and Indigenous Peoples' treaty rights. Human‐induced habitat alteration is considered the ultimate cause of caribou population declines, whereby an increased abundance of primary prey—such as moose and deer—elevates predator populations and creates unsustainable caribou mortality. Here we focus on the Klinse‐Za and Quintette subpopulations, part of the endangered Central Group of Southern Mountain caribou in British Columbia. These subpopulations were trending toward immediate extirpation until a collaborative group initiated recovery by implementing two short‐term recovery actions. We test the effectiveness of these recovery actions—maternity penning of adult females and their calves, and the reduction of a primary predator, wolves—in increasing vital rates and population growth. Klinse‐Za received both recovery actions, whereas Quintette only received wolf reductions, providing an opportunity to test efficacy between recovery actions. Between 1995 and 2021, we followed 162 collared female caribou for 414 animal‐years to estimate survival and used aerial counts to estimate population abundance and calf recruitment. We combined these data in an integrated population model to estimate female population growth, total population abundance, and recovery action effectiveness. Results suggest that the subpopulations were declining rapidly (λ = 0.90–0.93) before interventions and would have been functionally extirpated (<10 animals) within 10–15 years. Wolf reduction increased population growth rates by ~0.12 for each subpopulation. Wolf reduction halted the decline of Quintette caribou and allowed them to increase (λ = 1.05), but alone would have only stabilized the Klinse‐Za (λ = 1.02). However, maternity penning in the Klinse‐Za increased population growth by a further ~0.06, which when combined with wolf reductions, allowed populations to grow (λ = 1.08). Taken together, the recovery actions in these subpopulations increased adult female survival, calf recruitment, and overall population growth, more than doubling abundance. Our results suggest that maternity penning and wolf reductions can be effective at increasing caribou numbers in the short term, while long‐term commitments to habitat protection and restoration are made.

Evaluation of the susceptibility of new low nicotine tobacco cultivars to phosphine resistant and susceptible populations of Lasioderma serricorne (F.) (Coleoptera Anobiidae)

Nicotine is believed to be a key factor limiting the ability of arthropods to infest tobacco leaves and their products. The present study investigates the susceptibility of seven inherently low nicotine content tobacco cultivars (lines) to infestation by the cigarette beetle Lasioderma serricorne (F.) (Coleoptera: Anobiidae) via population growth studies of the insect under laboratory conditions. Two populations of L. serricorne, one susceptible, and one resistant, to the fumigant phosphine, were used in the study. Progeny production by L. serricorne differed significantly among the different tobacco lines. An increase in temperature (from 25 °C to 30 °C) increased population growth rate of the insect on susceptible tobacco lines, causing severe infestations in a short period of time. Four tobacco lines (TLB, TLC, TLE and TLF) showed noticeable delay in L. serricorne development, as compared with beetles reared on control tobacco and grain-based rearing media. Both phosphine resistant and susceptible strains of the beetle produced lower numbers of offspring in the low-nicotine tobacco lines (TLB and TLE). Hence, certain low-nicotine tobacco lines may be effective for the control of cigarette beetles, regardless of their susceptibility to phosphine.

Not all management is equal: a comparison of methods to increase wood turtle population viability

AbstractManagement generally targets the most tractable life stage to rescue declining populations; however, that stage may not have the largest influence on recovery. Freshwater turtles are declining globally and early stages are frequently targeted for management, although the effectiveness of these actions on population growth are relatively unknown because of incomplete demographic data. We estimated the hatchling yearly survival rate for a freshwater turtle in the field using in situ enclosures to collect missing demographic information. We used these data to develop demographic models to calculate growth rate for a hypothetical, declining population of wood turtles (Glyptemys insculpta) in Wisconsin, USA, 2014–2019. We modeled growth for populations across a range of scenarios from no management to combinations of nest protection and head‐starting at varying levels of effort. Nest protection alone did not increase population growth rate, while head‐starting alone increased population growth by 0.07, with the largest increase in growth rate, 0.11, resulting from combinations of both approaches. No combination of nest protection and head‐starting, without an increase in adult survival rate from the observed 0.88 to ≥0.95, led to population stabilization or increase. Populations of freshwater turtles, like the wood turtle, will likely only recover with a multi‐faceted approach that targets multiple life stages simultaneously.

Challenges and Prospects of Advancing Groundwater Research in Ethiopian Aquifers: A Review

Groundwater is a strategic resource in all climatic regions of Ethiopia, contributing about 80% of the domestic supply of urban and rural populations. However, little research has been available compared with extensive geographical coverage and increasing population growth rates. Hence, the present study aimed to review published groundwater research of Ethiopian aquifers to realize potential research challenges and suggest future research directions. We focused on groundwater potential, recharge process, and qualities. The total potential groundwater of the country ranges from 2.5 to 47 billion cubic meters. The study depicted that the mean annual recharge estimate varies from 24.9 mm to 457 mm at catchments scales. However, the overall country was about 39.1 mm. The study found a need for a detailed investigation of different factors susceptible to groundwater pollution, as some of the evaluations indicated exceeding acceptable standards. This study observed that the main challenge was the lack of data and convergence research trends. Henceforth, future research in different climate regions should focus on multifaceted technical and stakeholder settings. This study gives the insight to integrate palatable research findings with the national policy and decision-making process to enhance the sustainability of groundwater resources significantly.

The eco‐evolutionary dynamics of prior selfing rates promote coexistence without niche partitioning under conditions of reproductive interference

Abstract Pollinator‐mediated reproductive interference can occur when two or more plant species share the same pollinators. Recent studies have suggested that prior autonomous selfing mitigates reproductive interference, potentially facilitating coexistence even in the absence of pollination niche partitioning (i.e. the pre‐emptive selfing hypothesis). However, whether the evolution of prior selfing promotes coexistence, in the context of the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of population size, selfing rates and inbreeding depression, remains poorly understood. We constructed an individual‐based model to examine the conditions under which the evolution of prior selfing promotes coexistence in the context of mutual reproductive interference. In the model, two plant species compete by way of mutual reproductive interference, and both have the potential to evolve the capacity for prior autonomous selfing. We expected that purging of deleterious mutations might result in evolutionary rescue, assuming that the strength of inbreeding depression declines as the population selfing rate increases; this would enable inferior competitors to maintain population density through the evolution of prior selfing. Our simulation demonstrated that evolution of prior selfing may promote coexistence, whereas reproductive interference in the absence of such evolution results in competitive exclusion. We found that lower pollinator availability is likely to favour rapid evolutionary shifts to higher prior selfing rates, thereby neutralising the negative effects of reproductive interference in both species. When the strength of inbreeding depression decreased with an increase in the population‐level selfing rate, moderate pollinator availability resulted in long‐term coexistence in which relative abundance‐dependent selection on the prior selfing rate served to intermittently maintain the population density of the inferior competitor. Synthesis. We demonstrate that the evolution of prior selfing may increase population growth rates of inferior competitors and may consequently promote long‐term coexistence via an evolutionary rescue. This constitutes a novel mechanism explaining the co‐evolutionary coexistence of closely related plant species without niche partitioning, and is consistent with recent studies reporting that closely related species with mixed mating systems can co‐occur sympatrically, even under conditions of mutual reproductive interference.

Study on the ability of housing projects in new cities to attract middle-income residents: a case study on New Cairo City دراسة لمدي قدرة مشاريع الإسکان في المدن الجديدة لجذب سکان فئة متوسطي الدخل: دراسة حالة عن مدينة القاهرة الجديدة

One of the most pressing issues confronting developing countries is their ability to provide affordable housing to middle and lower-income groups. This issue affects Egypt because of its economic challenges as well as the increasing population growth rate, and it manifest primarily in the middle class category, which is the largest segment of the population whose economic capabilities do not reach the material well-being of the upper class to obtain the housing units they desire. The middle class also has more aspirations than the low-income group to obtain adequate housing, and is highly dependent on its income compared to the low-income group that dependents largely on government support. The development of new cities is considered one of the potential solutions to the housing problem in general and to the middle class in particular. This article, accordingly, examines the housing sector at the outset by describing the housing situation in Egypt as well as the gap between the supply and demand in the real estate market. It then identifies the middle class socially and economically and the capabilities and needs of this population group. The article then explores different assessment criteria for the middle housing systems adopted from the Egyptian ministry of housing and utilities in cooperation with the United Nations office in Egypt and apply these indicators to four housing projects in the New Cairo city (the largest city around the larger region of Cairo). These projects represents the main agents responsible for providing housing units in Egypt including the government, private, and cooperative sectors. The assessment indicators were divided into four criteria (schematic and architectural, economic, social, administrative and organizational) and it was found that the proximity rate to the overall average of these criteria did not exceed an average of sixty percent for all the four projects indicating an apparent imbalance in the middle-class housing market. This shortage appears in factors - rather than the quantity of available units - which affects the functioning of the housing market. The article concludes by highlighting the gap between what is implemented on the ground and what is actually needed for the middle class group, and hence the extraction of recommendations to avoid these gaps. تعتبر مشکلة الإسکان واحدة من أهم المشاکل التي تواجه الدول النامية، وذلک من خلال عدم قدرتها علي توفير سکن ميسور التکلفة للفئات متوسطي ومحدودي الدخل، هذه المشکلة تعاني منها مصر نظرا للتحديات الاقتصادية لديها بالإضافة أيضا إلي معدل الزيادة السکنية المتزايد. تلک المشکلة تمس بشکل أساسي الطبقة المتوسطة التي تمثل أکبر شريحة سکانية، هذه الفئة قدراتهم الاقتصادية لا تصل الي الرفاهية المادية للطبقة العليا کما أن الفئة المتوسطة لديها من الطموحات ما يفوق فئة محدودي الدخل في الحصول على سکن ملائم، وتکون معتمدة علي إمکانيتها بشکل کبير، ويعتبر إنشاء المدن الجديدة أحد الحلول لمشکلة الإسکان بصفة عامة وللفئة متوسطة الدخل بشکل خاص. ويقوم البحث بدراسة هذا القطاع الإسکاني بداية بتوصيف الحالة الإسکانية في مصر وأسباب حدوث فجوة بين سوق العرض والطلب للسوق العقاري، ومن ثم التعرف علي الطبقة المتوسطة اجتماعيا واقتصاديا وما هي قدرات واحتياجات هذه الفئة السکانية، ويتبع ذلک دراسة لمؤشرات تقييم أنظمة الإسکان المتوسط وتطبيق هذه المؤشرات علي أربع مشاريع إسکان في أکبر المدن المحيطة بإقليم القاهرة الکبرى الأکثر اکتظاظا وهي مدينة القاهرة الجديدة. وقد تم تقسيم هذه المؤشرات الي أربع معايير: (تخطيطية ومعمارية، اقتصادية، اجتماعية، إدارية وتنظيمية) ووجد أن معدل الاقتراب للمتوسط العام لهذه المعايير هو 60% مما يوضح وجود مواطن خلل في سوق الإسکان للفئة المتوسطة هذا الخلل يتمثل في السعر وأنماط الحيازة ومساحات الوحدات المعروضة – وليس في الکمية – وهذا الذي يؤثر علي أداء سوق الإسکان لوظائفه، واستنتاج المؤشرات التي يوجد بها فجوة بين ما هو منفذ علي ارض الواقع وما هو في الاحتياج الفعلي للطبقة المتوسطة، ومن ثم استخراج توصيات لتفادي هذه الفجوات.

Population-level effects of wildlife rehabilitation and release vary with life-history strategy

Wildlife rehabilitation is the treatment and subsequent release of injured wildlife. Wildlife rehabilitation benefits individual animals receiving care, but also supports Conservation Medicine approaches by providing opportunities to monitor wildlife health, contaminant loads, and disease prevalence. However, it is typically considered to have negligible effects on population growth, and has not traditionally been acknowledged as an effective tool for wildlife conservation. To explore whether rehabilitation and release could directly support population recovery in some cases (i.e., increase population growth rates), we considered five case study species along a spectrum of life-history strategies (Raccoon, Painted Turtle, Blanding’s Turtle, Snapping Turtle, and Little Brown Bat). We simulated populations over 200 years, while varying two parameters: 1) the rate of severe injury (0, 1, 2, or 5 % of the population); and 2) how many of these injured animals are successfully rehabilitated (0, 10, 25, or 50 %). The effect of the rehabilitation scenarios was largest when additive severe injury rates were highest (5 %). Species that were most sensitive to increased adult injury rates (turtles and bats) also exhibited the greatest population-level responses to rehabilitation and release interventions. We conclude that wildlife rehabilitation can support in situ recovery and help stabilize declining populations when 1) injury is an ongoing source of high additive mortality, 2) the target population is small, 3) the species exhibits a K-selected life-history strategy, 4) rehabilitation can be combined with other interventions, including in situ threat mitigations, and 5) rehabilitation efforts do not jeopardize or limit in situ conservation interventions.

Simulated Indigenous fire stewardship increases the population growth rate of an understorey herb

Abstract Understanding how plant populations respond to multiple drivers is increasingly critical for biodiversity conservation under global change. Indigenous knowledge can provide guidance for sustainable management, but the outcome of its application in novel ecosystems is rarely known. Simulating the re‐introduction of Indigenous stewardship in contemporary contexts with population models allows for the comparison of different management scenarios and the elucidation of the mechanisms driving population outcomes. Beargrass Xerophyllum tenax is an ecologically and culturally important understorey plant managed through fire and leaf harvest by Native Americans. We collected demographic and abiotic data on beargrass over 3 years across fire severities in nine populations and conducted an experiment to simulate Native American leaf gathering. These data were used to build integral projections models (IPMs) with soil moisture and light availability as covariates. With these IPMs, we simulated stochastic population growth rates across future fire and leaf harvest scenarios. We then decomposed our simulation results using stochastic life table response experiments (SLTREs). The ‘no fire’ and ‘business as usual’ (180‐year fire return interval, 58% probability of high‐severity fire) scenarios resulted in lower population growth rates than ‘Indigenous fire stewardship’ (10‐year fire return interval, 10% chance of high‐severity fire). SLTREs revealed that Indigenous stewardship led to higher beargrass population growth rates due to greater fire frequency, higher adult survival and increased vegetative reproduction. Fire also interacted with harvest in the simulations; leaf harvest increased population growth rate only in combination with Indigenous fire stewardship. Synthesis. Stochastic and retrospective population dynamics tools combined with an understanding of Indigenous management practices allow for the comparison of future socio‐ecological scenarios as well as mechanistic understanding of differences between scenarios. Simulated Indigenous stewardship supported the long‐term persistence of X. tenax populations while business as usual and no fire did not. The benefits of Indigenous stewardship to population dynamics, and the complexity of interactive effects of multiple drivers, provide further impetus for collaboration across Indigenous and western knowledge systems. Xerophyllum tenax is presented as a model system to explore the influence of Indigenous stewardship, or its absence, on population dynamics.