Increased Energy Use Research Articles

Energy use in Hong Kong: Part II, sector end-use analysis

A sector end-use analysis of extrasomatic energy in Hong Kong has been made for 1971. The sectors into which consumption has been divided are domestic, commercial, industrial and transport. In moving towards heavier industries, adopting more energy expensive modes of transport and through the higher energy requirements of new commercial complexes Hong Kong is rapidly elevating its total energy requirements, although options to alleviate this trend are available. The consequences of, and alternatives to unabated increases in energy use in Hong Kong are discussed.

The Future of American Oil and Natural Gas

The transfer of undiscovered petroleum and natural gas from the resource base to inclusion in immediately available proved reserves is dependent upon a complex fabric of incentives, effort, technology and just plain luck. Unfortunately, the link between the effort which may be made in response to incentives and the results to be obtained are so tenuous that a firm answer as to future domestic supplies of oil and gas cannot be given. In the near term, United States consumption of energy should continue to be closely related to the growth in the gross national product (GNP). Environmental controls, while both discouraging and requiring the use of energy, may prove to require a net increase in energy use. On the other hand, conservation measures responding to price increases and shortages may only partially reduce the energy growth rate. For the re mainder of this decade, natural gas will decline in relative importance; an increase in nuclear power will about match this decline; and coal and water power will remain essen tially unchanged. The total contribution of oil will remain almost constant, but the share attributed to imports will increase rapidly. Beyond 1985, policy changes and competi tive forces should cause the entire pattern to begin to shift to a new configuration.

Continuing increase in use of energy.

Continuing increase in use of energy.

Objectivity of Editorial Questioned

Professor LaMont C. Cole's paper on Thermal Pollution in your November issue presents some very valuable but somewhat mystifying projections of the thermal effect of the continued increase in energy use. My calculations confirm the 91 year span for a 1 C increase in temperature. Unless some unexplained new factors are introduced, I calculate, on the basis of the 7% per year increase in energy use continuing, that the time for a 3 C increase would be about 108 years (rather than 780 years) while the 15 C increase to a mean temperature of 30 C would require about 130 years (rather than 980 years). If the specific heat to warm the earth's crust and melt the ice is taken into account, a few extra years would be needed but the time spans would still remain in the century to century-and-a-half range before we would face disaster.