Road icing caused by freezing rain significantly impacts driving safety. Since asphalt binder plays a pivotal role in pavement infrastructure, understanding the formation process and adhesion strength of ice on asphalt binder surfaces is crucial for assessing road icing risk. This work investigated the effect of different environmental conditions on asphalt-ice interface adhesion strength via a self-designed low-temperature adhesion testing system. In addition, the icing process on asphalt binder surfaces was observed to analyze the asphalt-ice adhesion strength formation mechanism. Results show that the completion time of water-ice phase transition signified the initial development of asphalt-ice adhesion strength. Moreover, as the internal structure of the ice evolved from transparent to needle-like fine lines to dense, the asphalt-ice adhesion strength gradually increased until it reached stability. At asphalt-ice adhesion began forming after 40 min and stabilized after 80 min, whereas at −8°C, adhesion strength started forming after 20 min and stabilized by 60 min. The growth rates of asphalt-ice adhesion strength for temperatures ranging from −2°C to −10°C were approximately 7.92 kPa/°C, 6.56 kPa/°C, 5.14 kPa/°C, 3.29 kPa/°C, and 1.49 kPa/°C, respectively, showing a positive correlation with temperature and a negative correlation with time. According to heterogeneous nucleation theory, the influence mechanism of temperature and water depth on the nucleation icing process and asphalt-ice adhesion strength is analyzed. lower temperatures lead to asphalt-ice adhesion strength increase originating from the larger supercooling, which reduces the critical nucleation energy and thus accelerates the ice nucleation rate. In addition, the increase in water depth promotes the formation of nucleation sites and further enhances the asphalt-ice adhesion strength. Finally, an asphalt-ice adhesion strength prediction model was developed, with PSO-SVM-G achieving over 90 % accuracy. These results provide insights for evaluating ice adhesion behavior on asphalt surfaces and designing anti-icing asphalt materials.