Increase In Turnout Research Articles

The relevance and resilience of the cordon sanitaire in Portugal: the March 2024 legislative elections

ABSTRACT On 10 March 2024, Portugal held a snap legislative election. Marked by a considerable increase in turnout, it inaugurated a new era in Portuguese politics, with the increased support for the populist radical right and a right-wing parliamentary majority. However, a cordon sanitaire strategy kept Chega out of the new cabinet. The election gave rise to a minority coalition government and a tripartite parliamentary landscape, with the mainstream right, the populist right, and the left parties forming three competing blocks. This article examines the 2024 election and a possible link between the rise of the radical right and increased voter turnout. We conclude that the fact that more citizens turned out in this election only partially explains Chega’s growth.

Does decentralization boost electoral participation? Revisiting the question in a non-western context

Since the late 1970s, intergovernmental relationships worldwide have undergone an unequivocal transformation, with powers increasingly shifting toward subnational governments. One of the expected outcomes of decentralization reforms is a (re)vitalization of participation in subnational decision-making. If available empirical evidence tends to support this claim, it has remained primarily restricted to Western countries. This article leverages asymmetric decentralization arrangements in Ukraine to re-examine the effect of decentralization on voter turnout in a diverging setting. It conducts matching and regression analyses using an original city-level dataset that combines electoral, census, administrative, financial and geospatial data. The results converge on a significantly positive effect on voter turnout in local elections of more than 4 percentage points. Additional analyses concerning the mechanisms suggest that the effect might be driven by citizens’ awareness of electoral stakes. Interestingly, the increase in voter turnout appears concomitant with lower perceived local government performance.

Does Proportionality Increase Turnout? A Study of Adaptation to Oscillating Electoral Systems

Does proportionality increase turnout? This article studies a national electoral reform in early twentieth-century Argentina that was implemented asymmetrically across districts, creating a natural laboratory in which some districts oscillated between electoral systems across elections. Leveraging this unusual variation in a difference-in-differences design, this article shows that a shift from multi-member plurality rules towards a slightly more proportional system—which removed one-third of the contested seats from the grasp of the dominant party—led to a four percentage point increase in turnout. An investigation into causal mechanisms indicates that more proportional rules, by increasing the odds that smaller parties obtain seats, promoted strategic party entry and intensified electoral competition, both between and within parties. These findings complement existing quasi-experimental results that focus exclusively on elections in European democracies, confirm that parties are able to adapt immediately to changes in electoral rules, and refute the belief that proportionality does not affect turnout in Latin America.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ДЭГ НА ЯВКУ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЕЙ НА ВЫБОРАХ В РОССИИ В 2021–2023 ГГ.

Remote electronic voting, also known as i-voting, transforms elections in Russia and worldwide, opening up new opportunities for the state and society to move from agent-object to subject-to-subject relations. However, the impact of i-voting on political processes, especially at the regional level, is yet to be studied by social sciences. The author analyzed the effect of remote electronic voting on voter turnout at the federal and regional elections in Russia in 2021–2023 and compared them with the turnout that involved traditional means of voting. The cross-regional and cross-temporal analysis of electoral statistics partially proved that remote electronic voting as an additional voting channel increased voter turnout at the federal level. The Russian electronic voting network appeared to be an efficient state operator in 2021–2023. However, the increase in voter turnout was lower in the regions. If subjected to strict public control, remote electronic voting can justifiably considered as an effective form of conventional political participation.

The (complex) effect of internet voting on turnout: Theoretical and methodological considerations

AbstractThe adoption of remote internet voting can be a rather complex reform. In theory and praxis, geographical units can either decide to adopt or not to adopt i‐voting. Those that adopt it can differ in the mode of i‐voting adoption (i.e., internet‐only voting, or also in‐person voting), and the timing of adoption (i.e., some geographical units might adopt it earlier than others). How does the decision to adopt internet voting, the mode of adoption and the timing of adoption influence turnout? Using data spanning the municipal elections in Ontario, Canada from 2000 to 2018, we try to answer these research questions. Generally, we find that allowing internet voting, regardless of the availability of in‐person voting, does not influence turnout over the long term. However, we do find a temporal pattern, in that some of the most participatory municipalities adopted internet voting the earliest. We also detect a novelty effect; a sizable increase in turnout during the first ever election in which internet voting was introduced, which vanished in following elections.

Party Realignment, Education, and the Turnout Advantage: Revisiting the Partisan Effect of Turnout

Party realignment is occurring along the lines of education in the United States. As college-educated voters increasingly align with the Democratic Party, it is necessary to revisit the partisan effect of turnout. We predict that, since 2016, the Democratic Party no longer benefits from higher turnout. Using validated voter turnout from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), we simulate election results across turnout rates for the 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Our findings show that increases in turnout greatly benefit the Democratic Party in the pre-Trump era. However, this pattern has drastically changed. In 2016, 2018, and 2020, the Democratic Party sees a much smaller gain in vote share as simulated turnout increases, but also a large vote share advantage when voter turnout is extremely low. These results indicate that continued party realignment along the lines of education could lead to a persistent reversal in the expected partisan effect of turnout—where Democrats perform better in low-turnout local or primary elections and Republicans perform better in high-turnout general elections.

Voter Participation in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Elections in Bengkalis Regency 2020

This study aims to describe and find out about the forms of voter participation in simultaneous regional head elections during the Covid 19 Pandemic Period in Bengkalis Regency in 2020. As well as to find out what are the factors that influence voter participation. This study uses a qualitative research method with a descriptive analysis method, as well as through a phenomenological approach, where this research can be started by paying attention to and examining the focus of the phenomenon to be examined, which looks at various subjective aspects of the object's behavior, namely the people in Bengkalis Regency who have the right to vote in the 2020 regional elections in accordance with the provisions of the law. The findings in this study are that community participation in the implementation of the 2020 regional head election during the Covid 19 pandemic in Bengkalis Regency increased by 11.50% when compared to the 2015 regional head election as well as the 2010 regional head election. The factors increasing community participation This is due to economic factors, the socialization factor of the organizers, the awareness factor of the voters themselves and also the first time voters, the political trust factor, the trust factor in the candidates, and the mobilization factor carried out by the candidates through the winning team, campaign team, and so on to the people in Bengkalis Regency. However, from all of these factors, based on the results of the research conducted by the researchers, the main factor that led to an increase in voter turnout was money politics or gifts in other forms carried out by election participants.

Выборы депутатов Законодательного Собрания Краснодарского края в 2022 г.: особенности электорального поведения

The relevance of the topic is that the elections of legislative assemblies of the Russian Federation subjects re-flect the regional peculiarities of the agenda and public opinion, the level of political self-organization and awareness, ideological orientations of the electorate. The elections of 2022 are the first in the Krasnodar Krai held under conditions of a special military operation and, consequently, experienced changes in the agenda and priorities of citizens. Based on the example of Krasnodar Krai, the topic has been insufficiently researched. The article establishes the features of electoral behavior in the elections of deputies to the Legislative Assem-bly of the Krasnodar Krai (September 2022). The work is based on the concept of socio-cultural divisions, dia-chronic comparative analysis, axiological approach, and institutionalism. The author identified the reasons for the increase in voter turnout and changes in the level of support for political parties, territorial differences in support for political parties, the consequences of legislative changes: the introduction of three-day voting and the predominance of deputies elected in single-member districts over those elected on party lists. Territorial differences in support for political parties consist in increased preference for the “United Russia” party in rural areas and small towns, while support for opposition parties is typical for large cities. The materials and conclu-sions of the article are applicable in forecasting the results of the presidential elections of 2024 on the example of the Krasnodar Krai.

Downsian closeness hypothesis under investigation: a study on austrian direct mayoral elections

Does the expectation of a close race drive more people to vote? Despite increasingly intensified electoral competition and hardened fronts at all political levels over the last decades, a decline in turnout rates can be observed representing a puzzling development. Though there are anomalies, previous studies show a clear trend towards a positive association between a close race and an increase in turnout. Based on the idea of the “rational choice” theory, the prospect of a close or undecided race increases the subjective weight of the individual vote, which drives more voters to the ballot box. In fact, ‘expected Closeness’ is one of the most frequently tested independent variables in voter turnout research. However, the factor is only measured ex-post in most cases. Such measurements use the results of the actual election to infer the ‘Closeness’ of the race. However, these measurement methods are less valid because they do not measure ‘Closeness’ in the decisive period before the election takes place. We want to contribute a test of the effect by analysing all runoff elections in Austrian direct mayoral elections since 1991 as they allow for ex-ante measurement. The first ballots and the runoffs are temporally close. Thus, the first vote results serve as a direct indicator of the ‘expected Closeness’ in the second round of voting. The electorate changes, if at all, only insignificantly between the ballots. In addition, socio-economic factors influencing voter turnout can be kept constant, increasing the validity of the test. The results of this study underline the positive and independent effect of ‘Closeness’ on the turnout of the election. The closer a mayoral race in Austria is in the first round, the higher is the turnout in the following runoff elections. The study also presents the independent and strong effects of socioeconomic factors on turnout. Our research not only provides a valid test of the effect of ‘expected Closeness’ on voter turnout, it also constitutes pioneering work in complete data collection on all direct mayoral elections in Austria.

Mobile Internet access and political outcomes: Evidence from South Africa

I exploit the staggered introduction of 3G mobile Internet technology across South Africa to estimate its impact on political participation, electoral competition, voters’ preferences, and protests. Combining granular coverage data with administrative records on municipal elections, I show that in 2016 mobile Internet availability caused a 2-percentage-point increase in voter turnout and a 3-percentage-point reduction in the vote share of the ruling party. The main opponents gained from mobile Internet arrival. The number of parties running for election and the number of protests grew. I provide suggestive evidence that both information and coordination mechanisms could explain the observed results.

The role of community-based democracy volunteers in increasing the voter participation in general elections

Voter participation in general elections is one of the challenges for general election organizers. Various attempts were made to increase voter participation in every general election. This study aims to identify the role of community-based democracy volunteers in increasing the voter participation, analyzing the increase in voter participation, and analyzing the obstacles that affect the implementation of community based democracy volunteer activities in 2019 in Pekalongan City. This research is a descriptive study with a qualitative approach case study toward The General Elections Commission of Pekalongan City. The results suggested that the role of community-based democracy volunteers in increasing voter participation was manifested through the socialization of elections to the community, considering the large number of communities in Pekalongan and the members who were also voters in the 2019 election. The socialization carried out by community-based democracy volunteers in Pekalongan greatly influenced the increase in voter turnout in the 2019 elections which reached 84%. The obstacles occurred during socialization by community-based democracy volunteers could be properly resolved. Community-based democracy volunteers have a very important role in increasing voter participation in elections through socialization activities carried out.

The impact of voter turnout on referendum outcomes: evidence from Ireland

We estimate the causal effect of voter turnout on referendum outcomes in Ireland using a newly created dataset that links 25 years of constituency-level referendum results to a variety of demographic and economic characteristics, as well as daily rainfall amounts. Our instrumental variables methodology uses rainfall as an instrument for voter turnout to overcome issues of endogeneity. By exploiting Ireland’s extensive experience with referendums, we are the first to explore the heterogeneous effects of turnout by referendum type (social issues versus regime-related issues). We find that a one-percentage-point increase in turnout is associated with a 1.6-percentage-point increase in support for progressively liberal social policies, which include issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion. For regime-related issues, such as EU economic treaties, we find no statistically significant effect of voter turnout on referendum outcomes. Our finding that turnout benefits socially progressive policies is consistent with a related strand of literature for general elections that indicates higher turnout benefits left-wing political parties.

Do text messages increase voter registration? Evidence from RCTs with a local authority and an advocacy organisation in the UK

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, text messages have become an increasingly attractive tool of voter registration. At the same time, in countries without automated registration, advocacy organisations play a more prominent role in supplementing the efforts of official bodies in registering voters. However, most available, robust evidence on whether voter registration campaigns work is based on campaigns conducted by official bodies charged with electoral registration. We present the results of two RCTs that aimed to increase voter registration in the UK using SMS-text messages, relying mainly on behavioural messaging. One was conducted by a local authority, while the other was implemented by an issue advocacy organisation that had no prior involvement in voter registration. In line with previous findings, the local authority’s text messages resulted in an increased registration rate of eight percentage-points, which translates into a three percentage-point increase in voter turnout. However, the advocacy organisation’s text messages neither increased voter registration, nor turnout, no matter whether the text message offered a personal follow-up conversation, or not. Given that many voter registration campaigns are run by advocacy organisations and text messages are an increasingly important mobilisation tool, this raises questions about the scope conditions of existing findings.

Income Inequality in U.S. Voting: A Visualization

Although it is clear that the 2020 election broke turnout records, we do not know how levels of voting changed across income groups. Journalistic accounts emphasized increases in turnout across demographic groups but relied on self-reported voter data. The authors use validated voting data from both the Common Election Study and the Pew Research Center to examine the relationship between income and voting across the two elections (along with education and race in supplemental analyses ). The authors show that levels of inequality in political participation were the same or higher in 2020 compared with previous years and that there are substantial differences in coefficients for income between the two data sets, raising questions about the accuracy of validated voter data.

DEMOCRATIC ELECTION PROCESS IN AFGHANISTAN AND ITS SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT - COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN THE PRESIDENTIAL & PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

In Afghanistan, day to a day power struggle, rampant corruption, and numerous challenges increased and affected National Unity Government. The survival of the country was managed with the help of International Assistance. Afghanistan Analyst Network reports that mismanagement and electrical fraud exist in the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2018 and 2019. Two parties in Afghanistan had created continuous political tension in the country. In several ways, the government of Afghanistan suffered due to violence and insecurity problems. The socio- political management was of the country not focused on efficiently maintaining security problems. Additionally, due to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, ninety per cent of the Afghan people were suffering from economic, environmental crises and insecurity problems. The parliamentary election scheduled after the first election in 2004 led to several challenges due to slow preparations. The people of Afghans prefer to have a strong government was the lesson learnt by the presidential election in Afghanistan. The irregularities and fraud reveal the different types of voting patterns. The challenges of a presidential election in Afghanistan based on the voter turnout were examined in this study. The post-conflict state of the country caused the increase or decrease in voter turnout in Afghanistan. The change in the socio-political and economic, and security situation of the country was analyzed during the presidential and parliamentary elections. Parliamentary chambers of Afghanistan held over various years were analyzed based on the number of registered voters, ballots and valid votes.

Active voting rights in the digital age: Legal aspect

The article considers an analysis of the digital transformation of the electoral process in Russia. This became possible with the introduction of a new method of voting in Russia — remote electronic voting (REV). The article examines legal and technological transformation of mechanisms that allow voters to express their will in elections regardless of their location. The experience of legislative innovations in Moscow in terms of integrating the paper and electronic voter list (EVL) in the context of the introduction of the REV, new mechanisms for electronic voting in the form of electronic voting terminals (EVT) in the elections in Moscow in September 2023. The authors analyze the legislative regulation of the REV in the context of the implementation of active suffrage on an extraterritorial basis, the discussion about which has repeatedly arisen at the level of the CEC of Russia and the Constitutional Court of Russia, but before the introduction of the REV, EVT and EVL did not fully fail to free and mobile extraterritorial voting (according to the location). The hypothesis of the authors is that the introduction of digital services in the form of EVTs integrated into the electronic voting system, the use of EVL, will expand the rights of voters, which in general will lead to an increase in voter turnout, and, as a result, a higher legitimization of elected authorities. In the event of successful experience in the application of EVT and the demand for such method of voting among voters, especially taking into account the mobility of the voter’s choice of the place of voting, a new principle of suffrage can be enshrined in law — a free choice of method of voting (traditional, with using a paper ballot, remotely using a REV or a EVT).

Does a universal basic income affect voter turnout? Evidence from Alaska

AbstractDoes a universal basic income (UBI) affect voter turnout? This article argues that the introduction of an unconditional cash payment—where citizens receive money independent of employment status, age, or indigence—can have a turnout-enhancing effect. I evaluate the argument using the introduction of the Permanent Fund Dividend in Alaska. Differences-in-differences estimates covering November general elections from 1978 to 2000 provide compelling evidence that the Alaskan UBI has a significant positive effect on turnout. The results further suggest that the turnout increase was not a one-off effect but persists over a period of almost 20 years. Thus, a UBI has the potential to positively affect turnout among an entire electorate, adding to the discussion around potential welfare reforms in western democracies.

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

AbstractThis study uses prediction market data from the nation’s historical election betting markets to measure electoral competition in the American states during the era before the advent of scientific polling. Betting odds data capture ex ante expectations of electoral closeness in the aggregate, and as such improve upon existing measures of competition based on election returns data. Situated in an analysis of the 1896 presidential election and its associated realignment, I argue that the market odds data show that people were able to anticipate the realignment and that expectations on the outcome in the states influenced voter turnout. Findings show that a month ahead of the election betting markets accurately forecast a McKinley victory in most states. This study further demonstrates that the market predictions identify those states where electoral competition would increase or decline that year and the consequences of these expected partisanship shifts on turnout. In places where the anticipation was for a close race voter expectations account for a turnout increase of as much as 6%. Participation dropped by 1%–6% in states perceived as becoming electorally uncompetitive. The results support the conversion and dealignment theories from the realignment literature.

If not now, when? Climate disaster and the Green vote following the 2021 Germany floods

Can first-hand experience of a climate-related natural disaster make citizens more likely to vote in favour of progressive climate politics? Leveraging the rare occurrence of a large-scale disaster just two months before a federal election, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the short-term electoral effects of the devastating 2021 Germany floods on voter support for Germany’s major environmentalist party, the Green Party. Compared to other German voters, those living in areas affected by the floods were marginally (0.4–1.6 percentage points) more likely to vote for the Greens. The largest increases in Green vote share are observed in municipalities which were directly exposed to flooding. Contrary to expectation, we tend to find larger increases in Green Party support in the less severely affected areas. Despite substantial increases in turnout in affected areas, we find that the observed increase in vote share for the Greens was rather driven by a persuasion effect on voters who previously supported other parties. In the absence of evidence that the floods led to an increase in voters’ issue prioritisation of climate change, our results highlight the limited possibility for major natural disasters to induce increased localised support for Green parties.

Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections

AbstractWe analyze the effect of electoral turnout on incumbency advantages by exploring mayoral elections in the German state of Bavaria. Mayors are elected by majority rule in two‐round (runoff) elections. Between the first and second ballot of the mayoral election in March 2020, the state government announced an official state of emergency. In the second ballot, voting in person was prohibited and only postal voting was possible. To construct an instrument for electoral turnout, we use a difference‐in‐differences strategy by contrasting turnout in the first and second ballot in 2020 with the first and second ballots from previous elections. We use this instrument to analyze the causal effect of turnout on incumbent vote shares. A 10‐percentage point increase in turnout leads to a statistically robust 3.4 percentage point higher vote share for incumbent mayors highlighting the relevance of turnout‐related incumbency advantages.