Increase In Turnout Research Articles

Racial Threat and the Influence of Latino Turnout on State Immigration Policy*

ObjectiveWe examine how Latino constituencies—their percentage of the population and their percentage of voters—influence the propensity of states to pass restrictive immigration policy, testing two competing theories.MethodUsing state‐level data from 2009 through 2012, we examine the influence of Latino constituency size and Latino electoral strength on the number of restrictive immigration laws enacted by U.S. state legislatures.ResultsWe find that states with larger Latino populations pass more restrictive laws, but greater Latino electoral strength leads states to pass fewer restrictive policies. This relationship is interactive such that increases in Latino turnout act to mitigate the positive effect of Latino population size on restrictive policies. Finally, we show that the positive effect of Latino mobilization is indirect, meditated by their electoral influence on the partisan and ethnic composition of state legislatures.ConclusionsOur findings emphasize the importance of voting for minority substantive representation.

The 2003 and 2015 Constitutional Referenda in Rwanda: A Significant Change in Voter Turnout

ABSTRACTData on voter turnout and choice at the Rwanda’s 2003 and 2015 constitutional referenda were acquired and analyzed. The results revealed contrasting changes in voter turnout between diaspora and in-country electorate. Arguably, at home, lack of freedom on the part of registered voters to make independent choices may explain the 9.3 percent and 5.2 percent increase in voter turnout and “yes” vote, respectively. On the other hand, while the repressive arm of the regime can reach Rwandan citizens both at home and abroad so as to compel them not oppose its political agenda, voters in diaspora enjoy some level of relaxation, especially those staying in Western democracies, which could explain the 37.8 percent drop in voter turnout. The article further argues that the results of the 2003 and 2015 referenda could be used to support suggestions that the Tutsi electorate indeed stands more divided than it was a decade ago.

La influencia del género sobre el comportamiento político de las mujeres españolas (2000-2011)

Este artículo se plantea como un estudio acerca del comportamiento y de la cultura política de las españolas durante la última década hasta las elecciones generales celebradas en el año 2011. Pese a que los estudios previos han reconocido una cierta tendencia conservadora, las encuestas postelectorales del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas nos permiten llegar a cuantificar cómo y de qué manera se desarrollan las mujeres en la esfera pública. Con el aumento de la participación electoral por encima de la de los hombres, y sobre todo, la estandarización de los valores de cultura política, podemos afirmar que ambos han llegado a ejercer un comportamiento electoral muy similar.

Left Behind? Citizen Responsiveness to Government Performance Information

Do citizens respond to policy-based information signals about government performance? Using multiple big datasets—which link for the first time large-scale school administrative records and individual validated voting behavior—I show that citizens react to exogenous school failure signals provided by No Child Left Behind. These signals cause a noticeable increase in turnout in local school board elections and increase the competitiveness of these races. Additionally, I present evidence that school failure signals cause citizens to vote with their feet by exiting failing schools, suggesting that exit plays an underexplored role in democratic accountability. However, performance signals elicit a response unequally, with failure primarily mobilizing high propensity citizens and encouraging exit among those who are white, affluent, and more likely to vote. Hence, while performance signals spur a response, they do so only for a select few, leaving many others behind.

Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

Effects of the internet on participation: Study of a public policy referendum in Brazil

ABSTRACTDoes online voting mobilize citizens who otherwise would not participate? During the annual participatory budgeting vote in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil—the world's largest—Internet voters were asked whether they would have participated had there not been an online voting option (i-voting). The study documents an 8.2 percent increase in total turnout with the introduction of i-voting. In support of the mobilization hypothesis, unique survey data show that i-voting is mainly used by new participants rather than just for convenience by those who were already mobilized. The study also finds that age, gender, income, education, and social media usage are significant predictors of being online-only voters. However, technology appears more likely to engage people who are younger, male, of higher income and educational attainment, and more frequent social media users.

Выборы в Европейский парламент через призму социальных медиа как электорального ресурса в европейских странах

This article examines social media as a relatively new tool of electoral and political activity aimed at creating a positive image of political parties and candidates to the European Parliament. In the modern world of politics it is becoming increasingly important due to such factors as the growing number of World Wide Web users, the decline in the traditional media popularity and the rapid spread of new media, as well as the transformation of the Internet space into the platform for active political interactions. The key role in realizing the task of forming political image belongs to political institutions (parties, state bodies), politicians and social activists, as well as population representatives. The analysis of the efforts of various political subjects in the social media roughly demonstrates three functions of this new phenomenon: social media as a turnout increase tool, as a tool of increasing the recognition of candidates and parties by population; as a tool of informing the population about political and electoral processes in society. Currently, the main obstacle for the strategic research in this area is the fact that social networking technologies are rapidly developing, that embarrasses in making long-term prediction on its use. In spite of the absence of recognized criteria giving the opportunity to evaluate political activity in social media, the key efficiency criteria and success factor is so called permanent presence of electoral activity subjects in the Internet.

Do closeness and stake increase voter turnout? Evidence from election results in small French towns in Brittany

ABSTRACTDo closeness and stake increase voter turnout? Evidence from election results in small French towns in Brittany. Regional Studies. This article explores the determinants of second-round voter turnout in small French towns with a focus on two hypotheses. First, an increase in the closeness of the race may lead to an increase in turnout. Second, a higher seats stake, that is, a higher proportion of the total number of seats that remain to be filled in the second round of the election, may increase turnout. Results show that increases in both closeness and seats stake lead to higher voter turnout. Thus, evidence is given in favour of the assumption of rationality in voting in local elections.

The Efficacy of Political Advertising: A Voter Participation Field Experiment with Multiple Robo Calls and Controls for Selection Effects

We document the effectiveness of robo calls for increasing voter participation despite most published research finding little or no effect of automated calls. We establish this finding in a large field experiment in a targeted, partisan get-out-the-vote campaign. Our experimental design includes a follow-up call, which allows us to control for selection effects. We identify subsets of subjects, for whom the treatment effects are substantially larger than those that are found in previous studies. Our findings show that robo calls can cause a one percentage point increase in voter turnout. Additionally, our experimental design allows for testing how the number of calls in a treatment, that is dosage, affects voter turnout. Here, results show that that a few extra calls increase the treatment effect, and that many additional calls decrease that effect.

Scottish secession and voter turnout: simulating the effects of full voter turnout without Scottish participation in the union

ABSTRACTThis paper examines how increases in voter turnout might allow Labour to remain competitive in future general elections if Scottish representation is removed from Parliament or Labour continues to remain uncompetitive in Scotland. The loss of Scottish representation would be deleterious to Labour's prospects of gaining sizeable majorities again in Parliament. However, this prospect may be mitigated by an increase in voter turnout, as much has been made of the benefits that left parties can accrue with across the board increases in voter turnout. Using methods of multiple imputation, our analysis shows that Labour can modestly increase their vote share at full voter turnout, while the Conservatives consistently experience declining share. Results from this study also demonstrate that Labour losses could be mitigated by increasing voter turnout in the remainder of the UK. Using multinomial probit models for several elections, we are also able to see changes in the impacts of demographic attributes on vote choice. Combined, these results allow for an understanding of how Labour might mitigate the impact of losing Scottish representation in Parliament.

Cascade or echo chamber? A complex agent-based simulation of voter turnout

Using an agent-based simulation of electoral participation, this paper examines the second order or cascade effects of an exogenous increase in turnout. Unlike most previous applications of agent-based modelling in political science, we adopt a descriptively complex rather than a simple model of behaviour. Experimenting with different levels of mobilisation allows estimation of the extent to which mobilisation spreads beyond the primary mobilisation target across the population as well as whether or not it survives over time. We argue that in a complex world cascade effects are smaller than previously thought. However, mobilisation effects can create secondary effects through habitual voting and increases in political interest and party affiliation, which reverberate over time, creating long-term spillover effects.

Voter Turnout in Turkey's Parliamentary and Local Elections (1950–2014): Does Participation Increase when Competition Decreases?

This study evaluates the influence of party competitiveness, number of parties and intervention of non-elected actors, as well as socio-economic and institutional factors, with respect to voter turnout in Turkish parliamentary and local elections. While statistical results contradicted expectations, the application of compulsory voting proved to be the single most important determinant for an increase in voter turnout, whereas electoral type and electoral system difference become insignificant for electoral participation motivation. The first democratic elections following a military intervention generally shows a significant jump in voter turnout, but it also causes a decrease in the number of parties and diminishes party competition for the following electoral terms. Large numbers of registered voters and high voter turnout motivate parties to compete in the elections. Nevertheless, lack of party competition and a 10 percent electoral threshold enable only a few parties to take a piece of this enormous electoral pie.

When Threat Mobilizes: Immigration Enforcement and Latino Voter Turnout

Immigration enforcement, and deportation in particular, has been shown to have social and psychological effects on the non-deported as well, but its political effects have gone largely unexamined. I use the staggered implementation of Secure Communities, an information-sharing program between the federal government and local law enforcement, to estimate the short-term effects of stricter immigration enforcement on Latino voter turnout. A difference-in-differences analysis indicates that enrollment in Secure Communities led to an increase in county-level Latino voter turnout of 2–3 percentage points. This relatively large effect appears due to greater Latino activism in the wake of program implementation, rather than individuals responding to particular police interactions. These results extend the existing literature on mobilization in response to threat, demonstrate that policies can have far-reaching and unexpected political implications, and suggest that the current immigration debate may have major consequences for the future makeup of the American electorate.

Modernizing the vote and rationalizing the state: computers and voting in France

This article seeks to explore the impact of new voting technologies—machines from 1970–90, followed by screens from 1990–2010—on electoral practice in France. It begins by showing how the arguments deployed by advocates of the new technologies largely resembled one another, despite the fact that the two devices were based on rather different technical processes: hand-operated machines as opposed to networked computers. The article then examines the effects of these systems, which have been adopted in a number of towns, on the act of voting and electoral behaviour: the nature of the vote has been profoundly altered as a result, while the eagerly awaited increase in turnout has failed to materialize. The analysis will conclude by emphasizing the profound changes involved which affect both the organization and administration of elections, in particular the dispersal of operations, an ongoing process of experimentation, and the transformation of the electoral division of labour.

Propaganda and Politics in Developing Countries: Evidence from India

This paper provides evidence for the effects of propaganda in inducing voters to support political parties espousing ideologies of ethno-religious nationalism. Prior to the 1991 Indian national elections, the leader of the Hindu-nationalist BJP party undertook a campaign across northern India to promote the construction of a Hindu temple at a particularly sensitive site. Causal identification of the campaign’s effect comes through the incidental exposure of localities due to their lying along the road joining the cities which were the ultimate target destinations. The main result is that the campaign increased the BJP’s vote share by 3.5-9.5 percentage points in the constituencies through which it passed. This was not due to an increase in voter turnout, which was unaffected by the campaign. In addition, the probability of riots increased by 7 ppts, and the associated riots increased the party’s vote share by 3.5 ppts. The improvement in the BJP’s vote share translated to a 10-28 ppts increase in the probability of victory for the BJP in visited constituencies. The effect is found to be largest where there was a significant Muslim population, indicating that the presence of the stigmatized minority group was crucial to the campaign’s effectiveness. There is some evidence that the campaign led to an increase in the availability of local public goods in the local communities through which it directly passed.

(Don’t) Make My Vote Count

Proponents of proportional electoral rules often argue that majority rule depresses turnout and may lower welfare due to the ‘tyranny of the majority’ problem. The present paper studies the impact of electoral rules on turnout and social welfare. We analyze a model of instrumental voting where citizens have private information over their individual cost of voting and over the alternative they prefer. The electoral rule used to select the winning alternative is a combination of majority rule and proportional rule. Results show that the above arguments against majority rule do not hold in this set up. Social welfare and turnout increase with the weight that the electoral rule gives to majority rule in a close election, while they are independent of the electoral rule when the expected size of the minority tends to zero. However, more proportional rules can increase turnout within the minority group; this effect is stronger the smaller the minority group. We provide a general version of the competition effect, i.e. that turnout in close elections is higher than in biased elections, independently of the systems adopted in the two cases.

INSTITUTIONAL INFLUENCES ON TURNOUT IN MIXED MEMBER ELECTORAL SYSTEMS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

What institutional factors influence turnout among mixed member electoral systems? Mixed systems have increased in popularity over the past 20 years, yet no study evaluates variation in turnout within these systems. While the main distinction in mixed systems—MMM versus MMP—is salient regarding other outputs, it remains unclear if this distinction is salient regarding turnout. In addition, debates endure as to how best to measure turnout. Through statistical analysis of an original dataset of all mixed system legislative elections from 1990 to 2010, this article finds that the electoral threshold consistently correlates with an increase in turnout while the sub-type of mixed system does not consistently correlated with turnout. Ultimately this analysis suggests salient differences in both how we measure turnout and the institutional choices within mixed systems.

Candidates' Quality and Electoral Participation: Evidence from Italian Municipal Elections

We analyze the impact of the quality of candidates running for a mayor position on turnout using a large data set on Italian municipal elections held from 1993 to 2011. We firstly estimate a municipal fixed effects model and show that an increase in the average quality of candidates competing at the electoral race produces a positive impact on turnout. To handle endogeneity issues arising from time variant unobservable features of electoral races, we build on the literature showing that politicians' quality is positively affected by their wage and apply a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design relying on the fact that in Italy the wage of the mayor increases non-monotonically at different thresholds. Results show that an exogenous increase in the average quality of candidates, induced by a higher wage, leads to an increase in turnout by about 2 percentage points.

The Role of Call Quality in Voter Mobilization: Implications for Electoral Outcomes and Experimental Design

We demonstrate the centrality of high quality personal interactions for successfully overcoming the collective action problem of voter mobilization, and highlight the need for attention to treatment quality before making substantive inferences from field experiments. We exploit natural variation in the quality of voter mobilization phone calls across call centers to examine how call quality affects voter mobilization in a large-scale field experiment conducted during the 2010 Election. High quality calls (from call centers specializing in calling related to politics) produced significant increases in turnout. In contrast, low quality calls (from multi-purpose commercial call centers) failed to increase turnout. Furthermore, we offer caution about using higher contact rates as an indication of delivery quality. Our treatment conditions with higher contact rates had no impact on turnout, suggesting an unfavorable trade-off between quantity of contacts and call quality.

The Resurgent American Voter, 1996-2012

Sparked both by normative concerns and a classic empirical puzzle, scholars developed and tested a variety of explanations for the turnout decline in the US between 1960 and 1988. More than a decade of research eventually showed that the sources of the decline in turnout were multifaceted: it stemmed in various degrees from declines in partisanship, political efficacy and newspaper reading, mobilization, and changes in the age distribution in the electorate with lower rates of participation in younger cohorts. Turnout slid to 52.8% of the voting eligible population in 1992, surged briefly in 1992 to 58.1%, then bottomed out at 51.7% in 1996. Since then, turnout increased in three consecutive presidential elections, reaching an estimated 61.4% in 2008, but dropped back to 58.2% in 2012. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the American National Election Studies, I find that demographic and electoral reform variables account for little of the increase in turnout since 1996, while perceptions of partisan differences and renewed importance of voter mobilization do account for substantial portions of the increase.