Increase In Surface Air Temperature Research Articles

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6

This paper describes projected climate evolution and outcomes simulated by the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) to varying future scenarios, including of socio-ecological and technological development, and land-use and land-cover change. Contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) from the climate model version, ACCESS-CM2, and the fully coupled Earth System Model version, ACCESS-ESM1.5, are presented for the near-future (2020–2050), 21st Century (2000–2100) and longer-term (2100–2300). Scenario differentiation in the near future is aided by high-density sampling in large-ensemble ACCESS-ESM1.5, more clearly illustrating projected 2020–2050 global changes in temperature, precipitation and aerosol optical depth. Over the 21st Century, the heightened equilibrium climate sensitivity of ACCESS-CM2 relative to ACCESS-ESM1.5 results in persistently greater surface air temperature increases and larger amplified polar warming, leading to more rapid sea ice decline. Although weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs in both models, 21st Century recovery under aggressive-mitigation and overshoot scenarios only occurs in ACCESS-ESM1.5; AMOC weakening continues under all scenarios in ACCESS-CM2 through to 2100. Longer-term climate response from simulations extending to 2300 depict opposing hemispheric responses of polar surface air temperatures and sea ice in both models under scenarios based on aggressive mitigation action, leading to a resurgence of surface ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice decline. Under a future scenario where development is driven by continued fossil fuel use, both AMOC and Antarctic Bottom Water Formation continue to weaken across 2200–2300 in both models, reaching such low levels in ACCESS-CM2 that these pivotal components of global meridional overturning circulation could be considered essentially to have ceased.

Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes

Abstract. As a phytotoxic pollutant, surface ozone (O3) not only affects plant physiology but also influences meteorological fields and air quality by altering leaf stomatal functions. Previous studies revealed strong feedbacks of O3–vegetation coupling in China but with large uncertainties due to the applications of varied O3 damage schemes and chemistry–vegetation models. In this study, we quantify the O3 vegetation damage and the consequent feedbacks to surface meteorology and air quality in China by coupling two O3 damage schemes (S2007 vs. L2013) into a fully coupled regional meteorology–chemistry model. With different schemes and damaging sensitivities, surface O3 is predicted to decrease summertime gross primary productivity by 5.5 %–21.4 % and transpiration by 5.4 %–23.2 % in China, in which the L2013 scheme yields 2.5–4 times of losses relative to the S2007 scheme. The damage to the photosynthesis of sunlit leaves is ∼ 2.6 times that of shaded leaves in the S2007 scheme but shows limited differences in the L2013 scheme. Though with large discrepancies in offline responses, the two schemes yield a similar magnitude of feedback to surface meteorology and O3 air quality. The O3-induced damage to transpiration increases national sensible heat by 3.2–6.0 W m−2 (8.9 % to 16.2 %), while reducing latent heat by 3.3–6.4 W m−2 (−5.6 % to −17.4 %), leading to a 0.2–0.51 °C increase in surface air temperature and a 2.2 %–3.9 % reduction in relative humidity. Meanwhile, surface O3 concentrations on average increase by 2.6–4.4 µg m−3, due to the inhibitions of stomatal uptake and the anomalous enhancement in isoprene emissions, the latter of which is attributed to the surface warming by O3–vegetation coupling. Our results highlight the importance of O3 control in China due to its adverse effects on ecosystem functions, global warming, and O3 pollution through O3–vegetation coupling.

Historical global and regional spatiotemporal patterns in daily temperature

The abrupt increase in surface air temperature over the last few decades has received abundant scholarly and popular attention. However, less attention has focused on the specific nature of the warming spatially and seasonally, using high-resolution reanalysis output based on historical temperature observations. This research uses the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) output to identify spatiotemporal features of daily mean surface air temperature, defined both as the mean of the maximum and minimum temperatures over the calendar day (“meanmaxmin”) and as the mean of the 24 hourly observations per day (“meanhourly”), across the terrestrial Earth. Results suggest temporal warming throughout the year, with several “hot spots” of significantly increasing temperature, including in the Arctic transition seasons, Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in July, Eurasia in spring, Europe and the lower latitudes in summer, and tropical autumn. Cooling is also observed, but generally at rates more likely to be statistically insignificant than warming rates. These trends are nearly identical regardless of whether calculated as “meanmaxmin” or “meanhourly.” These results may assist scientists and citizens to understand more fully observed agricultural, commercial, ecological, economic, and recreational trends in light of climate change considerations.

Климат Краснодарского края: мнение и ожидания молодежи (часть 2)

The article considers some features of young people’s perception of the Krasnodar Krai climate at different times of the year. During a sociological survey of students of the Kuban State Technological University, it was revealed that the weather conditions in the region as a whole, and directly in one of its cities – Krasnodar – are liked by respondents most in spring, least of all in summer. Factors of perception of long-term weather condi-tions are the duration of residence on the territory of the region and the type of locus of control. Possible behav-ioral strategies of young people were also studied in case of increase in the coming years in the summer sea-son of such regional trends as increase in surface air temperature, increase in climate aridity, reduction in the total number of cloudy and slightly overcast days. It was revealed that in the case of the implementation of this climate scenario, respondents most often intend to limit the time spent outdoors and in the open sun in the summer months, less often – to go to another region. The findings suggest that this approach could also be useful for developing adaptation programs for individual actors to the conditions of expected climate change in Krasnodar Krai.

Enhanced Intensity of Interannual Variability of May Drought in Northeast China After 2000 and Its Connection With the Barents Sea Ice

AbstractUsing the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, this article demonstrates that the intensity of interannual variability (IIV) of May drought in Northeast China has enhanced remarkably after entering into the 21st century. Relative to 1980–1999, the percentage increase of IIV reaches 70% during 2000–2016. Such an enhancement is well supported by the intensification of IIVs in the East Asian polar front jet stream (EAPJ), East Asian subtropical jet stream (EASJ), and lower‐level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over Northeast China. Remarkable impact from the Barents Sea ice in April is also highlighted. With respect to the former period, a substantial increase occurs as well in the IIV of April Barents Sea ice during 2000–2016. Due to larger IIV in the latter period, the decline of April Barents Sea ice can exert evident effects on heat fluxes, consequently resulting in a significant increase of surface air temperature (SAT) in situ in May. The increased SAT further induces a wave train propagating southeastward to the East Asian region from the Barents Sea, which leads to a strengthened EAPJ and a weakened EASJ in the upper level, concomitant with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation covering Northeast China in the lower level. These atmospheric circulation anomalies link to the drought variability over Northeast China. Thus, the increase in the IIV of April Barents Sea ice favors the enhanced IIV of May drought in Northeast China.

Evaluating the contribution of climate change and urbanization to the reversal in maximum surface wind speed decline: Case study in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

The drivers of variations in wind extremes, such as maximum surface wind speed (MSWS), are important considerations in long-term wind speed studies in urbanized regions, and the contribution of changed surface roughness has been well-examined. However, the contribution of other drivers of the variation in MSWS, including atmospheric circulation and increasing surface air temperature, remains largely unknown. This study integrated statistical methods, spatial mapping techniques, meteorological station data, and land use products to investigate the spatiotemporal influence and integrated contribution rates of surface air temperature, surface roughness, and atmospheric circulation on MSWS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. The annual mean MSWS decreased (−0.662 m·s−1·10a−1) during 1973–2011 and increased (0.115 m·s−1·10a−1) during 2011–2020, whereas the seasonal changes differed significantly, with changes in the mean MSWS in winter being greater than in the other seasons. Moreover, increases in surface air temperature owing to surface roughness change, as well as atmospheric circulation (annual total explanatory power: 91.2%) contributed to MSWS changes from 1973 to 2020. The explanatory power of the integrated contribution was clearly influenced by urbanization, especially at the high urbanization level in the warm season (>86%), and the influence of atmospheric circulation was higher than that of urbanization in the cold seasons at the moderate level (>83%), implying that atmospheric circulation partially affected the key role of urbanization in the reversal of MSWS. The analysis framework of this study, which is based on the contribution rates of surface air temperature, surface roughness, and atmospheric circulation, is transferable to other cities and can be utilized to assist in both decreasing the risk of urban wind extremes and improving wind resource utilization.

Snow algal blooms in Antarctic King George Island in 2017–2022 and their future trend based on CMIP6 projection

Snow algal blooms have a remarkable climatic or environmental effect through influencing the snow–albedo feedback, accelerating the melting of surface snow, and amplifying global warming. Snow algal blooms occurred frequently on King George Island, Antarctic, during the recent six austral summers (December to next February) through 2017–2022. Based on an assessment of satellite images, this study found that the range and amount of snow algal blooms in the summers of 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022 are relatively larger than in the summers of 2017 and 2019. Whether meteorological conditions have shaped the year-to-year variation of algal bloom intensities is analyzed through observational composite. The results suggest that during the strong bloom summers there exist prevailing northerly or northwesterly wind anomalies which advect warm and humid airmass from the southern ocean into the island, increasing surface air temperature and humidity; the warmer and more humid surface favors melting of snow and an increase of low cloud cover, subsequently enhancing the atmospheric downward long-wave radiation and amplifying surface warmth; the increased low cloud cover reflects more ultraviolet rays back to space and weakens the short-wave radiation reaching the surface. All these factors together favor to a stronger bloom. In comparison, during 2017 and 2019 there exist weak southerly wind anomalies which induce the northward advection of cold and dry air from the Antarctic Continent and favor the cooler surface. Consequently, it is unfavorable for the snow algal bloom. Based on these results, a snow algal bloom potential index (API) integrating the meteorological conditions is constructed, and its future trend is projected based on the EC-Earth3 run attending the CMIP6 under SSP245 and SSP585. A significant increasing trend is projected especially under SSP585. Thus snow algal bloom on King George Island will become more frequent and stronger in future. This implies a potential accelerate melting of ice shelf over Antarctic Peninsula.

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes

Quantifying changes in hot temperature extremes is key for developing adaptation strategies. Changes in hot extremes are often determined on the basis of air temperatures; however, hydrology and many biogeochemical processes are more sensitive to soil temperature. Here we show that soil hot extremes are increasing faster than air hot extremes by 0.7 °C per decade in intensity and twice as fast in frequency on average over Central Europe. Furthermore, we identify soil temperature as a key factor in the soil moisture–temperature feedback. During dry and warm conditions, the energy absorbed by the soil is used to warm the soil, increasing the release of sensible heat flux and surface air temperatures. This increase in surface air temperature leads to a higher atmospheric demand for water, increasing soil evaporation, which may further dry and warm the soil highlighting the contribution of soil moisture–temperature feedback to the evolution of hot extremes in a warming climate.

Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC‐Earth2

AbstractAlongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase in the interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain to what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to the projected IAV increase of PMT. We analyzed large‐ensemble climate simulations to (a) explore the link between PMT and ARs in the present‐day (PD) and in two warmer climates (+2 and +3°C compared to pre‐industrial global mean temperature), (b) assess the dynamic contribution to changes in future ARs, and (c) analyze the effect of ARs on Arctic climate on interannual timescales. We find that the share of AR‐related PMT (ARPMT) to PMT increases from 42% in the PD to 53% in the +3°C climate. Our results show that the mean increases in AR‐frequency and intensity are mainly caused by higher atmospheric moisture levels, while dynamic variability regulates regional ARs on an interannual basis. Notably, the amount of ARs reaching the Arctic in any given region and season strongly depends on the regional jet stream position and speed southwest of this region. This suggests that future changes in dynamics may significantly amplify or dampen the regionally consistent moisture‐induced increase in ARs in a warmer climate. Our results further support previous findings that positive ARPMT anomalies are profoundly linked to increased surface air temperature and precipitation, especially in the colder seasons, and have a predominantly negative effect on sea ice.

Measurement and analysis of the variation of albedo and surface temperature at Pondok Betung, South Tangerang

In 2021, the IPCC reported that the rate of global warming has reached 1.1°C. The BMKG also states that many regions in Indonesia are experiencing warming. Two indicators of global warming are surface air temperature (SAT) and albedo. Changes in these two variables contribute to an urban heat island (UHI). Recent research reveals an increase in the UHI index in Pondok Betung area. Variations in SAT and albedo values can be obtained through the Automatic Solar Radiation System, and Automatic Weather Station provided at the Pondok Betung BMKG Station. The data obtained are SAT and two types of albedos, namely the albedo of direct radiation and the albedo of diffuse radiation on a grass surface. The results obtained show a small increase in SAT and a small decrease in the two albedos. Such a result is to be expected in January 2021-June 2022. The lowest SAT was 26.16°C in January 2021, and the highest was 27.92°C in March 2021. The lowest direct albedo was 0.158 in July 2021, and the highest was 0.178 in October 2021. The lowest diffuse albedo was 0.173 in June 2021, and the highest was 0.183 in October 2021.

Regional Impact of Snow‐Darkening on Snow Pack and the Atmosphere During a Severe Saharan Dust Deposition Event in Eurasia

AbstractLight‐absorbing impurities such as mineral dust can play a major role in reducing the albedo of snow surfaces. Particularly in spring, deposited dust particles lead to increased snow melt and trigger further feedbacks at the land surface and in the atmosphere. Quantifying the extent of dust‐induced variations is difficult due to high variability in the spatial distribution of mineral dust and snow. We present an extension of a fully coupled atmospheric and land surface model system to address the impact of mineral dust on the snow albedo across Eurasia. We evaluated the short‐term effects of Saharan dust in a case study. To obtain robust results, we performed an ensemble simulation followed by statistical analysis. Mountainous regions showed a strong impact of dust deposition on snow depth. We found a mean significant reduction of −1.4 cm in the Caucasus Mountains after 1 week. However, areas with flat terrain near the snow line also showed strong effects despite lower dust concentrations. Here, the feedback to dust deposition was more pronounced as increase in surface temperature and air temperature. In the region surrounding the snow line, we found an average significant surface warming of 0.9 K after 1 week. This study shows that the impact of mineral dust deposition depends on several factors. Primarily, these are altitude, slope, snow depth, and snow cover fraction. Especially in complex terrain, it is therefore necessary to use fully coupled models to investigate the effects of mineral dust on snow pack and the atmosphere.

Shallow geothermal heat in Western Canada: climatic warming impact changes with time– depth

Gain of heat and temperature in the shallow subsurface over the last decades/century has been impacted by the industrial period climatic surface air temperature (SAT) increase. Detailed study of the available temperature-depth data based on 43 wells with single and repeated temperature logs done by the first author has been combined with data base information (Jessop et al 2005) to create temperature maps at depth. Based on these 43 logs it is shown that the heat flux increases with depth in most cases for the available depth data range from surface to some 200m. Model of heat flow versus depth based on the surface air temperature changes through the industrial epoque climatic warming explains the data. Spatial and depth distribution of available temperature and heat gain through the provinces of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin WCSB shows that drilling closer to surface is more economic than deeper to 50-100m.

Cardamom agro-environmental interrelationships analysis in Indian cardamom hills

The rainfall pattern seen in the Indian Cardamom Hills (ICH) has been extremely variable and complicated, with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) playing a crucial role in shaping this pattern. In light of this, more investigation is required through improved statistical analysis. During the study period, there was greater variability in rainfall and the frequency of rainy days. About 2,730 mm of rainfall was reported in 2018, while the lowest amount (1168.3 mm) was registered for 2016. The largest decrease in decadal rainfall (>65 mm) was given by the decade 1960–1969, followed by 1980–1989 (>40 mm) and 2010–2019 (>10 mm). In the last 60 years of study, there has been a reduction of rainy days by 5 days in the last decade (2000–2009), but in the following decade (2010–2019), it registered an increasing trend, which is only slightly <2 days. The highest increase in decadal rainy days was observed for the 1970–1979 period. The smallest decadal increase was reported for the last decade (2010–2019). Total sunshine hours were the highest (1527.47) for the lowest rainfall year of 2016, while the lowest value (1,279) was recorded for the highest rainfall year (2021). The rainfall characteristics of ICH are highly influenced by the global ENSO phenomenon, both positively and negatively, depending on the global El Nino and La Nina conditions. Correspondingly, below and above-average rainfall was recorded consecutively for 1963–1973, 2003–2016, and 1970–2002. Higher bright forenoon sun hours occurred only during SWM months, which also reported maximum disease intensity on cardamom. The year 2016 was regarded as a poorly distributed year, with the lowest rainfall and the highest bright afternoon sun hours during the winter and summer months (January-May). Over the last three decades, the production and productivity of cardamom have shown a steady increase along with the ongoing local climatic change. Many of our statistical tests resulted in important information in support of temporal climatic change and variability. Maintaining shade levels is essential to address the adverse effects of increasing surface air temperature coupled with the downward trend of the number of rainy days and elevated soil temperature levels.

Localized Strong Warming and Humidification Over Winter Japan Tied to Sea Ice Retreat

AbstractEast Asian winter weather has altered dramatically in response to progressing climate change. However, analysis of time‐averaged atmospheric fields might obscure climate change signals that could relate to specific types of events. This study aimed to detect climate change signals for various background atmospheric fields by applying classification to daily surface pressure patterns. We found a pronounced trend of increase in surface air temperature over Japan since the 1980s, stronger than the seasonal mean trend, when dominating cold air advection from the Sea of Okhotsk. This cold air was warmed and humidified by the retreat of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk. In contrast, the warming trend was mitigated when warm air advection was dominant. These results highlight the importance of daily background atmospheric conditions in amplifying and localizing the impact of regional climate change.

Ice Freeze‐Up and Break‐Up in Arctic Rivers Observed With Satellite L‐Band Passive Microwave Data From 2010 to 2020

AbstractThe timing of ice freeze‐up and break‐up in the Arctic may be responding to climate change. Passive microwave remote sensing is a powerful technique for monitoring this timing. We processed low‐frequency microwave time series from the European Space Agency Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission for a set of 31 satellite gauging reaches (SGRs) above 65°N between 2010 and 2020 to determine timing of freeze‐up and break‐up and annual river ice durations. We found indication of progressive ice cover reduction over more than half of the monitored river reaches, with possibly the fastest rate occurring over northeast Russia. Some rivers in high‐latitude North America experienced a slight increase in ice cover. Across the data set, we observed an average 2.2 days shift toward later ice freeze‐up in autumn and an average 0.6 days shift toward earlier ice break‐up in spring, resulting in an average decrease of 3.4 days in ice duration between 2010 and 2020. River reaches with the longest duration of ice cover appeared to have experienced the fastest rate of decrease. A possible reduction of the time lag between air temperature rise or fall and corresponding river ice break‐up and freeze‐up was also observed. Yet results on variability are carefuly interpreted given the short length of the time series (2010–2020) and the low statistical confidence rates calculated for the decadal tendency. Still outcomes are consistent with increases in global and Arctic surface air temperature. Following these time series over the next decade using passive microwave satellite sensors can monitor ice cover duration in the Arctic and will further determine temporal and regional trends.

Constrained high-resolution projection of hot extremes in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region is the political center and one of the largest and most dynamic economic centers in China. Relative to other regions of China, it faces greater challenges from increasing hot extremes. However, future projections of regional changes in hot extremes based on multi-model ensembles carry huge uncertainty. To improve the reliability of regional projections, we used the latest high-resolution outputs from nine GCMs in CMIP6-HighResMIP and constrained the projection of hot extremes in this region. In the BTH, the historical scaling of the annual maximum temperature with the mean summer (June–August) temperatures (TXx scaling) showed a significant linear relationship with the future TXx scaling in the multi-model ensemble. By comparing the observed and simulated historical TXx scaling we identified an observational constraint that could reduce the uncertainty of TXx scaling. We believed that the simulations of EC-Earth3P, EC-Earth3P-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MPI-ESM1-2-XR show advantages in simulating surface air temperature and related hot extremes in this region. Verification demonstrated that surface air temperature projection in the BTH region constrained by observational constraint is more reliable. In constrained projections, by the 2040s, the increase in summer surface air temperatures is projected to exceed 1 °C compared to 2010s. Also, the estimated number of days of compound (sequential hot day-night) hot extremes (HND), independent hot nights (HNi) and independent hot days (HDi) was found to increase by 0.3, 0.3, and −0.03 d per year during 2015–2049, respectively. The growth in numbers of days of HND, HNi and HDi was slower after observational constraint. Furthermore, the estimated increase in surface air temperature variables after constraint also reduced. This study provides support for adaptation policy-making and as a reference for the use of observational constraint in other regions of China.

The increase in intensity and frequency of surface air temperature extremes throughout the western South Atlantic coast

The climate is changing. At this stage, it is important to specify an ‘extreme’ climate and identify patterns that indicate its potential harm worldwide, including the coastal zones. Herein, we considered extremes based on the “Peaks Over Threshold” method from the “Extreme Value Theory”. We looked after geographical patterns of surface air temperature (SAT) extremes (e.g., Tmax, Tmin, daily temperature range (DTR), and inter-daily temperature range) over the last 40 years throughout the Brazilian coast. Overall, we found a trend increase in intensity and frequency, but the duration was barely affected. The latitudinal pattern of extremes and the temperatures considered extremes followed the settled perception that areas in higher latitudes will be more affected by the extent of warming. Additionally, the seasonal pattern of DTR demonstrated to be a good approach to make inferences about air mass changes, but joint analyses on extremes with other atmospheric variables are desirable. Given the potential effects of extreme climates on society and natural systems over the world, our study highlights the urge for action to mitigate the effects of the increase in SAT in coastal zones.

Rising temperatures over the Greater Mekong Subregion in CMIP6: Present-day biases and constraint future projections

This study evaluates the historical simulation of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) during the period 1981–2014 with 31 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble shows a weaker SAT growth trend than the reanalysis data in all seasons. The SAT increase is underestimated mostly in winter, by around 0.2 °C/decade. The simulated SAT climatology shows positive bias over the Gaoligong Mountain in western Yunnan, the Rakhine Mountain in Myanmar, and the Annamite Range in southern Vietnam, and negative bias elsewhere. We make a best-model ensemble to improve the representability of the GMS SAT. The range of SAT interannual variability is underestimated over most parts of GMS in boreal spring, autumn, and winter. In summer, the SAT range bias shows a dipole pattern with negative bias over the northwestern GMS and positive bias over the southeastern GMS. Dynamical diagnosis suggests that the bias in vertical velocity perturbation, manifesting as weakened regional Hadley circulation, is a major contributor to the SAT range bias in summer via vertical advection of mean potential temperature. The bias-corrected projection of the summer SAT is presented for three shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The SAT rising relative to the reference period 1995–2014 tends to be more spatially homogeneous under higher emission scenarios. The range of SAT interannual variability would increase over the northern GMS but decrease over the southern GMS under three SSPs scenarios. This SAT dipole variation is associated with intensified regional Hadley circulation over the GMS. The results also reiterate the urgent need for net zero emission by 2050 to maintain a sustainable environment.

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.