Increased Summer Precipitation Research Articles

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

AbstractObservational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi‐model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2‐45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non‐negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts.

Understanding the Dry-to-Wet Transition of Summer Precipitation over the Three-Rivers Headwater Region: Atmospheric Circulation Mechanisms

Summer precipitation has changed over the Three-Rivers Headwater (TRH) region, which may have an impact on droughts and floods in Asia. This study examines the notable interdecadal variation from dry to wet conditions in summer (June to August) precipitation over the TRH region during the period of 1979–2020. The changes could have been influenced by atmospheric circulations. This study aims to improve our understanding of the interdecadal variation in summer precipitation over the TRH region. Our findings reveal that a zonally oriented teleconnection wave train is generated across the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes, originating from the North Atlantic and propagating to northern East Asia along the westerly jet. This results in a weakened and northward-shifted westerly jet. Additionally, anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the northern Tibetan Plateau contribute to easterly water-vapor transport anomalies in the region, reducing water-vapor export at the eastern boundary. Concurrently, an anomalous cyclone over the Arabian Sea and an anomalous anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal enhance the influx of oceanic water vapor into the TRH region. The enhanced Walker circulation further augments the equatorial easterly, which in turn strengthens the anomalous anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal. Consequently, these atmospheric changes contribute to the increased summer precipitation over the TRH region, elucidating the mechanisms behind the observed dry-to-wet transition.

Precipitation-induced abrupt decrease of Siberian wildfire in summer 2022 under continued warming

Wildfires in Northeast (NE) Siberia have become more frequent owing to the warming climate, exerting a profound impact on the global carbon cycle. While an increase in global temperature is recognized as a primary driver of unprecedented wildfires, the role of precipitation during wildfire season is relatively unexplored. Here, we present evidence that an increase in summer precipitation led to a sudden decrease in NE Siberian wildfires, especially in 2022, notwithstanding the persistent warming trend in the northern high latitudes. The interannual variability of summer precipitation, linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, known as the Scandinavia (SCAND) pattern, significantly impacts the regulation of wildfires. Climate models project enhanced variability in summer precipitation, potentially amplifying year-to-year fluctuations in wildfire occurrences. The interplay between the temperature and precipitation patterns in NE Siberia under ongoing warming may increase the occurrence of extreme wildfires, leading to a substantial release of carbon and further contributing to climate warming.

Arctic summer precipitation variability and its association with Indian summer monsoon anomalies

In recent years, there has been an increased focus on changes in Arctic precipitation，however, dominant characteristics of Arctic summer precipitation variability and their relationship to atmospheric circulation anomalies in the mid-low latitudes remain debatable. Spatially, the leading mode of Arctic summer precipitation variability is positive in most regions of the Arctic, corresponding to a cold anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere of the Arctic. As the temperature gradient between the Arctic and high latitudes increases, the zonal westerlies over the Arctic enhanced and lead to increased local baroclinicity and moisture convergence over the Arctic. This creats favorable conditions for increased summer precipitation. Additionally, it is found that there is a robust correlation between the first mode of Arctic summer precipitation and the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, the positive Arctic summer precipitation anomaly is accompanied by a systematic northward shift of the zonal westerlies in the mid-latitude. The northward shift of the Asian westerly jet stream is associated with the intensified tropical easterly jet in the upper-troposphere and low-stratosphere, resulting in the strengthening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian Peninsula and then facilitating the precipitation anomaly over India. Numerical experiments reproduce the major features of the observed Arctic-Indian summer monsoon association, implying that Arctic summer precipitation variability is dynamically linked to tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability

The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD.

Future changes in South Asian summer monsoon circulation under global warming: role of the Tibetan Plateau latent heating

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is a significant monsoon system that exerts a profound impact on climate and human livelihoods. According to 38 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, the SASM circulation is projected to weaken significantly under global warming as seen in the weakened low-level westerly wind over the northern tropical Indian Ocean; however, the associated climate dynamics is still under debate. Here, we identify that the weakened low-level westerly wind is closely related to the enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which corresponds with increased summer precipitation in the future. The intensified TP latent heating triggers an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motions over the plateau and descending motions to the south, leading to an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the northern tropical Indian Ocean. This anticyclone greatly weakens the prevailing low-level westerlies of the SASM through easterly anomalies at the anticyclone’s southern flank. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that increased atmospheric water vapor, rather than the vertical dynamic component, makes the largest contribution to the increased precipitation over the TP. This result confirms that the enhanced TP latent heating is a driver of atmospheric circulation change and contributes to weakening the SASM circulation.

Spatiotemporal changes in future precipitation of Afghanistan for shared socioeconomic pathways

Global warming induces spatially heterogeneous changes in precipitation patterns, highlighting the need to assess these changes at regional scales. This assessment is particularly critical for Afghanistan, where agriculture serves as the primary livelihood for the population. New global climate model (GCM) simulations have recently been released for the recently established shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This requires evaluating projected precipitation changes under these new scenarios and subsequent policy updates. This research employed six GCMs from the CMIP6 to project spatial and temporal precipitation changes across Afghanistan under all SSPs, including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The employed GCMs were bias-corrected using the Global Precipitation Climatological Center's (GPCC) monthly gridded precipitation data with a 1.0° spatial resolution. Subsequently, the climate change factor was calculated to assess precipitation changes for both the near future (2020–2059) and the distant future (2060–2099). The bias-corrected projections' multi-model ensemble (MME) revealed increased precipitation across most of Afghanistan for SSPs with higher emissions scenarios. The bias-corrected simulations showed a substantial increase in summer precipitation of around 50%, projected under SSP1-1.9 in the southwestern region, while a decline of over 50% is projected in the northwestern region until 2100. The annual precipitation in the northwest region was projected to increase up to 15% for SSP1-2.6. SSP2-4.5 showed a projected annual precipitation increase of around 20% in the southwestern and certain eastern regions in the far future. Furthermore, a substantial rise of approximately 50% in summer precipitation under SSP3-7.0 is expected in the central and western regions in the far future. However, it is crucial to note that the projected changes exhibit considerable uncertainty among different GCMs.

Contrasted changes of sea-surface salinity in the southern and northern Okinawa Trough since the mid-Holocene

A reconstruction of sea-surface salinity (SSS) in the southern Okinawa Trough (OT) since 6800 cal. yr BP has been presented in this study. We found that the SSS record increased gradually from the middle to late Holocene, indicating reduced summer precipitation in Taiwan. Our results also suggest regional patterns of SSS with SSS increasing in the southern OT and decreasing in the northern OT since the mid-Holocene. Observational data indicate that the SSS in the southern and northern OT are strongly affected by fluvial discharge from Taiwan and the Changjiang River, linked to summer precipitation in South and Central Eastern China, respectively. The contrasting changes in SSS from the OT since the mid-Holocene suggest different spatial patterns of precipitation, with decreasing summer precipitation in South China and increasing summer precipitation in central-eastern China due to the weakened East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and solar insolation. The delayed seasonal transitions of the EASM, with a longer Meiyu stage and a shorter midsummer stage from the mid-Holocene to late Holocene, are consistent with the delayed northward migration of the westerlies in the late Holocene.

Annual velocities of the ablation zone of Panchi Nala Glacier, western Himalaya: Trends and controlling factors

Information on the glacier velocity is imperative to understand the glacier ice volume, supraglacial feature evolution and glacier-climate interaction. The present study investigates annual velocities of the ablation zone (∼4500–4800 m asl) of Panchi Nala Glacier, western Himalaya through feature tracking. For this, multi-temporal Landsat (TM and OLI) and Sentinel −2 MSI images, acquired between 2000 and 2021, were correlated using the Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation (COSI-Corr) tool. Results reveal a mean velocity of the ablation zone to be 10.6 ± 5.6 m/y during 2000–2021, with the highest (13.8 ± 4.6 m/y) and lowest velocity (8.9 ± 2.8 m/y) observed in 2005 and 2015, respectively. There is no significant trend in the velocity, rather it is highly heterogeneous on the inter-annual scale. Further, the influence of several factors such as slope, debris cover, altitude, annual average temperature and precipitation on the glacier velocity was investigated. Results indicate that the inter-annual heterogeneity in velocity is inversely correlated with the variation of summer precipitation implying that an increase in summer precipitation decreases the glacier velocity. The spatio-temporal velocity variations are also linked with the presence of supraglacial ponds, ice cliffs and heterogeneous debris distribution over the glacier. Findings indicate that, though annual glacier velocities have not changed significantly, their magnitudes are consistently low which coupled with consistent debris increase (19.74%) and gentle slope (8.2° over ablation zone) can promote rapid growth of supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs.

Alpine travellers in the Carpathians: The story of two rock‐dwelling snails told by genes and fossils

AbstractAimVarious species distributed in the Alps have their disjunct occurrences in the Carpathians. Fossil evidence for some woodland snails of Alpine distribution suggests that they colonized the Carpathians during the Holocene forest optimum or later. Here, we focus on disjunct Carpathian populations of the rock‐dwelling alpine snail Pyramidula saxatilis. As it occupies very stable habitats, that is, high‐elevation limestone rocks, one can assume its potential survival in Carpathian refugia over the glacial period(s). For comparison, the more widespread and warm‐climate P. pusilla is analysed.LocationEurope.TaxonPyramidula saxatilis and P. pusilla.MethodsWe analysed the genetic diversity of P. saxatilis and P. pusilla populations across their entire ranges using mitochondrial DNA and nuclear DNA markers. Seven fossil mollusc successions from the area where P. saxatilis occurs in the Carpathians were analysed and dated using the radiocarbon method. Habitat suitability models of both species were calculated for selected time periods since the Last Glacial Maximum.ResultsAll Carpathian P. saxatilis populations were genetically homogeneous and similar to those from the Eastern Alps. In P. pusilla, we found a genetically distinct lineage in the southern Western Carpathians. Both species were found in three fossil profiles since the Middle Holocene, and in one already in the Late Glacial. Habitat suitability models suggested the fluctuations of suitable conditions in the Carpathians driven by summer precipitation, especially for P. saxatilis.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that the Carpathian populations of P. saxatilis represent a post‐LGM colonization from the Eastern Alps triggered by climatic changes, mainly by the increase in summer precipitation during the Late Glacial interstadials and Middle Holocene. The evidence for P. pusilla is similar, but also suggests rare long‐term survival in the Carpathian microrefugia. The palaeoecological evidence indicates a possible threat to high‐elevation species from future fluctuations in precipitation regimes.

Relationship between Summer Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Extreme Precipitation in Northern China

Synoptic circulation patterns over the midlatitudes play a pivotal role in regional precipitation changes; however, the synoptic circulation patterns over eastern Asia (35°–60° N, 105°–145° E) and their effects on extreme precipitation events in the North China Plain (NCP) and northeastern China (NEC) remain unclear. The summer daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly fields for 1979–2021 are classified into six synoptic circulation patterns using self-organizing map (SOM) cluster analysis. The SOM1 pattern, characterized by a high-pressure ridge over the north of eastern Asia and a trough near the Korean Peninsula, yields decreased precipitation in NEC. The SOM2 pattern reveals a robust high ridge over eastern Asia, resulting in a higher incidence of regional extreme precipitation events (REPEs) of approximately 24% in the NCP. Under the SOM3 pattern, the anomalous cyclonic circulation over eastern Asia leads to above-average precipitation in the NCP. The SOM4 pattern yields the highest incidence of REPEs in NEC, with the lowest incidence of REPEs in the NCP, as the anomalous cyclonic circulation over eastern Asia moves southeastward compared to the SOM3 pattern. The SOM5 pattern presenting an anticyclone–cyclone dipole reduces precipitation in the NCP and NEC, and the anticyclonic circulation near eastern China associated with the SOM6 pattern causes above-average precipitation in the NCP. On interannual time scales, the SOM2 pattern occurrence with an increasing trend tends to induce an increasing summer precipitation trend in the NCP. The SOM3 pattern occurrence is negatively correlated with the summer precipitation in NEC. Overall, classifying the synoptic circulation patterns helps to improve precipitation forecasting and provides insights into the synoptic circulation patterns dominating the occurrences of REPEs.

Enhanced summer extreme precipitation over the Asian-African land monsoon regions during past warm periods: A modelling perspective from CESM2

Investigation of summer extreme precipitation during past warm periods may deepen our understanding of its behavior in current and future warmer climates. In this study, we investigate the variation of summer (June-July-August) extreme precipitation and the associated dynamic mechanisms over the Asian and African land monsoon regions during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP) and the Last Interglacial (LIG), using six extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Model results indicate that summer extreme precipitation becomes more intense and frequent over the African land monsoon region during both the mPWP and LIG relative to the pre-industrial, together with longer wet spell and shorter dry spell, though the magnitudes are relatively larger during the LIG than the mPWP. Based on the moisture budget equation, the vertical thermodynamic term and the vertical dynamic term largely account for the increased summer precipitation over the African land monsoon region during the mPWP and LIG, respectively. Over the Asian land monsoon region, summer extreme precipitation is also generally intensified and occurs more frequently during the mPWP and LIG, but with large regional differences. The main contributing factors to precipitation change hence vary greatly with sub-regions and periods. Although the modeled variations of extreme precipitation remain hard to be constrained by geological evidence, our results highlight an intensification of extreme precipitation in a warmer world, though the dominating factors (i.e., thermodynamic vs. dynamic) for precipitation change may vary with the external forcing that induces the warmth.

Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

The Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change; changes in summer (June–August) precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream areas. However, the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region, along with their influencing factors, remain unclear. In this study, we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor budget. Our results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 mm per year (p < 0.1) during 1979–2020, with a significant dry-to-wet transition in 2002. The category ‘very heavy precipitation’ (≥10 mm d−1) contributed 65.1% of the increased summer precipitation, which occurred frequently in the northern TRH region. The dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each subregion. Southwesterly water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region (158.2%), while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH (155.2%) and eastern TRH (229.2%) regions. Therefore, we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased ‘very heavy precipitation’ over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.

Causes of the Interannual Variation of Summer Precipitation in Eastern Southwest China

Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we conducted an EOF analysis of summer precipitation in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC) over the past 60 years. Our study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of summer precipitation in the ESWC, as well as to reveal the possible physical mechanisms influencing its interannual variability. The results indicate that, at the interannual scale, the first two modes of summer precipitation in the ESWC exhibit a uniform pattern and a north–south dipole pattern, respectively. The maximum and minimum time coefficients of the first mode correspond to the severe flood and drought events in 1998 and 2006, respectively, indicating that their time coefficients reflect the typical events well. The tri-pole sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic, along with the sea ice anomaly near the Barents Sea, induces a quasi-zonal wave train in the upper troposphere. This wave train propagates from the tropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, traverses the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, and reaches the eastern part of China. The wave train induces cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies in the north (south) of the ESWC, facilitating the convergence of high-latitude dry and cold air with warm and moist southwesterly winds from the tropical ocean. This convergence promotes increased summer precipitation in the ESWC. We provided valuable insights into the interannual variability of summer precipitation in the ESWC, shedding light on the physical mechanisms responsible for these variations.

Assessment of exposure of benthic organisms to selected organochlorine pollutants in the west Spitsbergen fjords

Climate-related changes in environmental conditions, such as reduction of sea ice, intensive glacier retreat, and increasing summer precipitation, directly influence the arctic marine environment and, therefore, the organisms living there. Benthic organisms, being an important food source for organisms from higher trophic levels, constitute an important part of the Arctic trophic network. Moreover, the long lifespan and limited mobility of some benthic species make them suitable for the study of the spatial and temporal variability of contaminants. In this study, organochlorine pollutants (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB)) were measured in benthic organisms collected in three fjords of western Spitsbergen. Two of these were recommended by the Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning (MARBEF) Network of Excellence as European flagship sites, namely Hornsund as the Biodiversity Inventory and Kongsfjorden as the Long-Term Biodiversity Observatory. Adventfjorden, with notable human activity, was also studied. Ʃ7 PCB and HCB concentrations in sediments were up to 2.4 and 0.18 ng/g d.w. respectively. Concentrations of Ʃ7 PCBs and HCB measured in collected benthic organisms were up to 9.1 and 13 ng/g w.w., respectively. In several samples (41 of 169) the concentrations of ∑7 PCBs were below the detection limit values, yet nevertheless the results of the research show effective accumulation of target organochlorine contaminants by many Arctic benthic organisms. Important interspecies differences were observed. Free-living, mobile taxa, such as shrimp Eualus gaimardii, have accumulated a large quantity of contaminants, most probably due to their predatory lifestyle. ∑7 PCB and HCB concentrations were both significantly higher in Hornsund than in Kongsfjorden. Biomagnification occurred in 0 to 100 % of the predator-prey pairs, depending on the congener analyzed. Although the sampled organisms were proved to have accumulated organochlorine contaminants, the measured levels can be considered low, and not posing a substantial threat to the biota.

Has Arctic sea ice loss affected summer precipitation in North China?

AbstractArctic sea ice loss is one of the most striking features in changing of the climate system and affects weather and climate in the midlatitudes through complex interactions and feedback processes. However, it is not clear whether Arctic sea ice loss has affected summer precipitation in East Asia. This study shows that summer regional precipitation in North China exhibits obvious features of phasic variations. Before 1998, positive and negative precipitation anomalies appeared alternately. While from 1999 to 2011, negative precipitation anomalies were dominant. Since 2012, increased summer precipitation has been observed frequently. A direct cause of increases of summer precipitation in North China is an enhancement of water vapour transport from South China and China's marginal seas, which can be attributed to the strengthening and northward shifting of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high and the spatial configuration with west low–east high and north low–south high in East Asian height fields. Although summer atmospheric circulation anomalies in high latitudes are dominant during the sea ice melting phase, their contributions to summer precipitation variations in North China are little. Simulation experiments show that Arctic sea ice loss can significantly affect the atmospheric circulation in high latitudes; however, it cannot be regarded as a major cause of observed recent increases in precipitation in North China. Additionally, Arctic sea ice loss has little impact on summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and South China.

Contribution of external forcing to summer precipitation trends over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and Southwest China

In the past 60 years, the global climate has undergone both rapid warming and a brief warming hiatus, while regional precipitation patterns in China have also experienced diverse and complex changes. Specifically, the factors behind the opposing trends in summer precipitation between two adjacent regions—Southwest China and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau—are particularly intricate. After evaluating the historical runs from CMIP6 models, the authors assessed the contributions of various external forcing factors that simulated the summer precipitation trends observed over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and Southwest China from 1961 to 2014. The findings show that, compared to other forcing factors, greenhouse gases had a significant impact on the increase in summer precipitation over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, while aerosols played an important role in the decrease in summer precipitation in Southwest China.摘要在过去的60年中, 全球气候经历了快速变暖和短暂的变暖停滞, 而中国的区域降水也经历了多样而复杂的变化. 本文分析了1961年至2014年外强迫因子对青藏高原和中国西南地区夏季降水趋势的影响. 观测数据显示, 青藏高原的夏季降水呈增加趋势, 而中国西南地区的夏季降水呈减少趋势, 这两个相邻地区的夏季降水变化趋势相反. 利用CMIP6数据, 本文研究了不同外强迫因子对两个区域夏季降水趋势的影响. 结果表明, 温室气体对青藏高原夏季降水的增加具有显著影响, 而气溶胶在中国西南地区夏季降水减少中起主要作用.

Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower

The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analysis of observations, large ensemble simulations, and pacemaker experiments indicates that this decadal increase was mainly attributed to the synergistic effects of the external forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions) and the Pacific internal variability, while the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean play a secondary role. Observations and simulations show that thermodynamic and dynamic effects work collaboratively to this increase. Remarkably, the upper-level dynamic convergence over the ITP would be enhanced through teleconnection and atmospheric dynamic feedback when involving the Pacific internal variability, resulting in more precipitation occurrence. Further analyses show that the enhanced stationary Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia and strengthened transient eddy activity over North Pacific could contribute to the anomalous cyclone over the ITP and weakened East Asian westerly jet, which built a pathway for the external forcing and Pacific internal variability collaboratively impacting the decadal increase in precipitation in the ITP. These results can improve our understanding of ITP summer precipitation attribution and can be applied to emergent constraints on future decadal precipitation prediction.

Increase in summer precipitation over the Sichuan Basin in recent decades and possible causes

AbstractA wet‐to‐dry shift in summer over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) during the late 20th century was noticed by previous studies. However, this study found that summer precipitation over SCB significantly increases during the past two decades, with an abrupt change point around 2011/2012. An anomalous cyclone over Lake Baikal, accompanied by an anticyclone over southern China, is responsible for the increase in SCB precipitation by inducing anomalous upper‐level divergence, mid‐level ascending motion and moisture convergence. Such atmospheric circulation anomalies are closely associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS). Observational analyses and model experiments indicate that the SST warming over the BKS warms local atmosphere and weakens meridional air temperature gradients over northern Asia and induces local anomalous easterlies, which further induce the anomalous cyclone over Lake Baikal that favours SCB precipitation. Additionally, the inhomogeneous warming over Europe increases local meridional air temperature gradients, enhances atmospheric baroclinicity and intensifies local transient eddy activities over central Europe. The intensified transient eddy activities generate negative geopotential height tendency anomalies over northern Europe, which can further excite a Rossby wave train that directly influences SCB precipitation, and can warm the atmosphere above the Kara Sea that indirectly influences SCB precipitation. This study can deepen our understanding of the interdecadal variability of summer precipitation over the SCB.

Climate-driven spatial and temporal patterns in peatland pool biogeochemistry.

Peatland pools are freshwater bodies that are highly dynamic aquatic ecosystems because of their small size and their development in organic-rich sediments. However, our ability to understand and predict their contribution to both local and global biogeochemical cycles under rapidly occurring environmental change is limited because the spatiotemporal drivers of their biogeochemical patterns and processes are poorly understood. We used (1) pool biogeochemical data from 20 peatlands in eastern Canada, the United Kingdom, and southern Patagonia and (2) multi-year data from an undisturbed peatland of eastern Canada, to determine how climate and terrain features drive the production, delivering and processing of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in peatland pools. Across sites, climate (24%) and terrain (13%) explained distinct portions of the variation in pool biogeochemistry, with climate driving spatial differences in pool dissolved organic C (DOC) concentration and aromaticity. Within the multi-year dataset, DOC, carbon dioxide (CO2 ), total N concentrations, and DOC aromaticity were highest in the shallowest pools and at the end of the growing seasons, and increased gradually from 2016 to 2021 in relation to a combination of increases in summer precipitation, mean air temperature for the previous fall, and number of extreme summer heat days. Given the contrasting effects of terrain and climate, broad-scale terrain characteristics may offer a baseline for the prediction of small-scale pool biogeochemistry, while broad-scale climate gradients and relatively small year-to-year variations in local climate induce a noticeable response in pool biogeochemistry. These findings emphasize the reactivity of peatland pools to both local and global environmental change and highlight their potential to act as widely distributed climate sentinels within historically relatively stable peatland ecosystems.