Increase In Ridership Research Articles

Cost benefit analysis of urban minibus operations

Earlier work by the Transport Studies Group of the Polytechnic of Central London on minibus development in Britain for the Transport and Road Research Laboratory provided a financial analysis of intensive urban minibus operation. This is taken as the basis for the application of cost-benefit analysis. Unit operating cost savings and passenger benefits are taken into account, using typical demand elasticities derived from earlier work. Particular attention is paid to the problem of evaluating passenger benefits for which waiting time at the roadside is not necessarily an adequate proxy. A direct survey of passenger waiting times indicates that these do not necessarily decrease when a higher-frequency minibus service replaces a conventional bus service but the improved convenience produces an increase in ridership which may be assessed in terms of a demand curve shift to estimate benefits obtained.

The free-fare transit experiments

This paper summarizes and evaluates the results of experiments which consisted of the elimination of bus fares in off-peak in the cities of Trenton, New Jersey and Denver, Colorado. Because the data in Denver had significant weaknesses, the specific figures cited herein are for Trenton (more accurately, Mercer County, New Jersey); the results of the two experiments were essentially identical, however, so the conclusions drawn are made in a more general context. The evaluation found that the net ridership increase during the demonstration was on the order of 15% (about 45% during the off-peak periods). This included the combined effects of an increase in trip frequency by prior users and an increase in the number of off-peak bus riders. Most new bus trips were diverted from other modes; very few were newly generated. The observed effects on the operator were minimal, with the exception of the associated revenue loss. The effects on bus drivers included schedule adherence problems because of increased passenger boardings and problems with on-board security because of increased rowdyism among younger passengers. The findings indicate that the fare-free (off-peak) transit experiments did not significantly achieve most pre-conceived goals. The amount of regional auto travel was essentially unaffected; the mobility of people who were transportation disadvantaged was only slightly increased; the program did not noticeably affect the area's commercial, employment, etc. activities. On the other hand, the program did generate an immediate and sustained ridership increase, much of which was apparently retained when fares were reinstated despite a large interim fare hike. This is an indication that free-fare may be useful as a promotion technique, whereby short-term, selective fare elimination can be used to increase transit ridership.

PIECEWISE APPROXIMATION FUNCTIONS AN EDUCATIONAL NOTE*

This paper gives a survey of piecewise approximation functions. Aside from the use of dummy variables, little research has employed such functions. Piecewise functions permit the dependent variable of a functional relationship to take on different forms with respect to the independent variable on various subintervals of the domain of the independent variable.Three types of piecewise approximation functions are considered: dummy variables, piecewise linear regressions and cubic splines. The theoretical and empirical properties of such functions are discussed within the context of an illustrative example involving the increase in ridership over time on urban mass transit systems. Dummy variables take account of shifts in the structural relation in a discontinuous fashion. Piecewise regressions and cubic splines allow for structural shifts without discontinuities arising.Tests are performed to determine whether a linear, quadratic, or cubic piecewise continuous function should be employed. In addition a test is employed to see if structural change occurs in the functional relation at the shift points.

Urban transit ridership in an energy supply shortage

The capabilities of a transit company to provide service is usually based on the existing commuter traffic. Rapid increases in commuter ridership will cause transit service to deteriorate. The transit companies' ability to respond to increased ridership is controlled by the length of travel by the new riders, the availability of additional buses and trained staff. This study found that under a situation where fuel was allowed to price itself in a free market, the transit company could face a situation of declining revenue per bus mile with increasing patronage. This comes about because those with longer commuter trips find it more advantageous to use transit. The transit patronage increase to be expected with a five per cent reduction in fuel supply is similar to that experienced by a doubling of fuel price. The more uniform change in the trips made throughout the urban area will probably not alter the average length of trip. The transit company should be able to keep the same ratio of passenger revenues to operating costs. The models used to estimate the changes in transit ridership appear to be generally applicable. The model used for the pricing scheme is similar to one used in the Tyneside-Wearside Transportation Study. The experience of Seattle's Transit System over the last year and a half tends to confirm the estimates found in the gasoline rationing model.