Increase In Precipitation Research Articles

The temperature-precipitation duel and tropical greening during the Early Eocene Greenhouse episode

Under rising anthropogenic CO2, the future of the tropical climate states and the response of the biosphere, specifically the fate of the tropical rainforest (TRF), is uncertain. Therefore, deep-time climate proxy records and model simulations are being extensively utilized to understand the possible response of the TRF community during extreme climate states. However, comprehensive climate-TRF proxy data from the tropical/equatorial region for the paleo-global warming episodes, e.g., Late Paleocene – Early Eocene interval (~56 to 51 Ma, encompassing transient hyperthermal events like Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM], Eocene Thermal Maximum2 [ETM2]/H1/ Eocene Layer of Mysterious Origin [ELMO], H2, I1, and I2), are very limited and create difficulties in the validation of simulated results. Here we present long-term land surface temperature and precipitation (δ2H and δ18O of pedogenic clay mineral-derived) and TRF diversity (palynology) data from a paleo-equatorial region, spanning the ~56 to 51 Ma interval. Present data suggest that the hydrological response to global warming was not temporally uniform in the paleo-equatorial land. While a significantly increased rainfall buffered the terrestrial temperature during the PETM, an insignificant increase in precipitation and negligible temperature lowering can be observed during the ETM2 hyperthermal event. However, the climate system's response during the other Early Eocene hyperthermals, i.e., H2, I1, and I2, was very similar to the PETM. Despite these small aberrations, the long-term average equatorial land surface temperature (27 ± 4 °C) during the Early Eocene greenhouse episode remained very similar to the modern equatorial temperature (28–30 °C). Rainfall proxy and plant diversity data suggest that the precipitation aided TRFs' resilience and proliferation, possibly through temperature buffering, during this paleo-greenhouse episode.

Exploring Global Data Sets to Detect Changes in Soil Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Over Three Decades

AbstractUnderstanding the temporal dynamics of soil microbial biomass is crucial for assessing soil ecosystem functions and services, yet these dynamics are globally uncertain. Here, we compiled a data set of soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) from 1493 studies between 1988 and 2019 to elucidate their temporal trends and potential drivers. Results showed that global MBC and MBN significantly decreased by 0.033 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 and 0.007 Mg N ha−1 yr−1 at 0–30 cm soil depth, between 1988 and 2019, respectively, which might be primarily attributed to the warming of the climate, the increase in global precipitation, and reduction of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. The rate of decline in MBC and MBN showed a non‐linear trend: following a decline from 1988 to 1999, it slowed down until 2014, likely due to the global warming hiatus. Afterward, the pace of decline increased again from 2015 to 2019. Boreal biomes experienced the largest decrease in soil microbial biomass with the reduction rate of MBC being 4.3 times higher than in temperate biomes, showing a higher sensitivity in boreal biomes to climate change. Grassland ecosystems also exhibited greater reductions, possibly driven by their degradation. These findings shed valuable insights on the long‐term dynamics of soil microbial biomass on a global scale over the last three decades. Furthermore, this study underscores the importance of preserving soil microbial biomass as a key strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of future climate change, thereby sustaining ecosystem health and resilience.

Partitioning of Evapotranspiration and Its Response to Eco‐Environmental Factors Over an Alpine Grassland on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau Based on the SiB2 Model

ABSTRACTPartitioning evapotranspiration (ET) is challenging but essential for understanding the exchange of energy, water, and carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we applied the simple biosphere model (SiB2) to partition ET at a typical alpine grassland site on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). In addition, through process‐based model scenario experiments, we quantified the effects of four environmental factors on ET components and predicted their evolution under the two future carbon emission scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585). Our findings are summarized as follows: (1) The original version of SiB2, despite its simple structure, effectively simulates ET and its components. (2) The ratios of annual total transpiration (T), soil evaporation (Es), and canopy interception evaporation (Ei) to ET in the alpine grassland ecosystem were 51%, 43%, and 6%, respectively. (3) Each 100 mm increase in annual precipitation results in a significant increase in soil evaporation (2.77%). A 1°C increase in air temperature leads to a significant increase in vegetation transpiration (5.22%) and canopy interception evaporation (5.63%). Each 100 ppm increase in CO2 concentration causes a significant decrease in T (−5.43%) and ET (−2.97%). An increase in LAI (1 m2 m−2) has the largest effect on canopy interception evaporation (4.67%). (4) Under the high carbon emission scenario (ssp585), all ET components in this ecosystem show a significant growth trend, particularly vegetation transpiration and canopy interception evaporation. These findings will facilitate more precise predictions of the water cycle dynamics, reveal land‐atmosphere interaction mechanisms, and aid in the protection of the ecological environment of the QTP.

Spatial Variation of Changes in Extreme Discharge Seasonality Across the Northeastern United States

ABSTRACTThe Northeast United States exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity in flood seasonality, with spring snowmelt‐driven floods historically dominating northern areas, while other regions show more varied flood seasonality. While it is well documented that since 1996 there has been a marked increase in extreme precipitation across this region, the response of flood seasonality to these changes in extreme precipitation and the spatial distribution of these effects remain uncertain. Here we show that, historically, snowmelt‐dominated northern regions were relatively insensitive to changes in extreme precipitation. However, with climate warming, the dominance of snowmelt floods is decreasing and thus the extreme flood regimes in northern regions are increasingly susceptible to changes in extreme precipitation. While extreme precipitation increased everywhere in the Northeastern United States in 1996, it has since returned to near pre‐1996 levels in the coastal north while remaining elevated in the inland north. Thus, the inland north region has and continues to experience the greatest changes in extreme flooding seasonality, including a substantial rise in floods outside the historical spring flood season, particularly in smaller watersheds. Further analysis reveals that while early winter floods are increasingly common, the magnitude of cold season floods (Nov‐May) have remained unchanged over time. In contrast, warm season floods (June‐Oct), historically less significant, are now increasing in both frequency and magnitude in the inland north. Our results highlight that treating the entire Northeast as a uniform hydroclimatic region conceals significant regional variations in extreme discharge trends and, more generally, climate warming will likely increase the sensitivity of historically snowmelt dominated watersheds to extreme precipitation. Understanding this spatial variability in increased extreme precipitation and increased sensitivity to extreme precipitation is crucial for enhancing disaster preparedness and refining water management strategies in affected regions.

The flash droughts across the south-central United States in 2022: Drivers, predictability, and impacts

A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor across much of the region following the first period of rapid drought intensification, and extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought conditions by the end of the second event. A notable driver of both flash drought events included a persistent upper-level ridge either centered over or shifted west and upstream of the flash drought region, leading to broad-scale subsidence and reduced mid-level moisture which acted to limit precipitation development and increase evaporative demand. In addition, several heatwave events developed during the warm season in 2022 and either (1) acted to drive flash drought development via increased evaporative demand or (2) were enhanced by land surface desiccation and land-atmosphere feedbacks following rapid drought intensification. Furthermore, S2S composite forecasts predicted drought development for both events. However, only 20% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development associated with flash drought for the first event and 16% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development during the second event. This result highlights a key challenge in S2S prediction of rapidly developing drought conditions versus that of more conventional and slower drought development. The ensembles that did predict rapid drought intensification were associated with the forecasting of positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the south-central United States (first event) or an amplified wave pattern centered over the west-central United States (second event). Lastly, the compounding effects of two flash droughts in a single warm season led to substantial impacts on agricultural, environmental, and hydrologic sectors across the region.

Vegetation Restoration Increases the Drought Risk on the Loess Plateau.

The extensive implementation of the 'Grain for Green' project over the Loess Plateau has improved environmental quality. However, it has resulted in a greater consumption of soil water, and its overall hydrological effects remain highly controversial. Our study utilized a coupled land-atmosphere model to evaluate the effects of vegetation changes resulting from revegetation or reclamation on the hydrology of the Loess Plateau. Revegetation was found to stimulate an increase in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and atmospheric water content. However, the increase in precipitation was insufficient to compensate for soil water loss driven by intensified evapotranspiration, resulting in a decrease in both runoff and soil water content. In contrast to revegetation, reclamation would reduce precipitation, although the reduction was less than the decrease in evapotranspiration. This could lead to an increase in both runoff and soil water content. The results provide an important scientific basis for the hydrological effects of vegetation changes on the Loess Plateau, which is particularly important for guiding current and future revegetation activities toward sustainable ecosystem development and water resources management.

ВЛИЯНИЕ СОВРЕМЕННОГО ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА НА ИСПАРЕНИЕ С ВОДНОЙ ПОВЕРХНОСТИ В ИЛЕ-БАЛКАШСКОМ БАССЕЙНЕ

Using the Ile-Balkash basin as an example, changes in evaporation from the water surface over the last 40 years, as well as changes in the main meteorological elements that affect evaporation, are considered. Within the framework of this work, the changes in evaporation from the water surface for 1996-2020 in relation to the previous period of 1980-1995 were assessed. It was established that over the last 20 years, there was a slight increase in evaporation at many lowland stations of the Ile-Balkash basin and it is about 1-10 %. In mountainous areas and near large water areas, such as Balkash and Ulken Almaty Lakes, there is a decrease in evaporation by about 2-9 %. The main factors influencing the change in evaporation values from the water surface were analyzed. It was concluded that the increase in evaporation from the water surface at the lowland stations in the Ile-Balkash basin is mainly due to the increase in air temperature and some increase in precipitation, and the decrease in evaporation in mountainous areas and near a water area is caused by the decrease of average wind speed and an insignificant increase in air humidity. This study can help support decision making in the agriculture and water resources sector, since evaporation from the water surface is involved in many hydrological, climatic and hydrodynamic models. Therefore, the obtained results can be used in many scientific calculations.

Климатические изменения годового стока рек Северного Приохотоморья

The aim of this study was to assess the climatic changes in the annual river runoff of the Northern Okhotsk Sea region within the Magadan region. In the present work the analyzed series end with data for 2019. Observation series of river runoff at eight hydrological stations were used in this work. By the method of hydrological analogy, these series were brought to a multiyear period by restoring year-on-year values. Thus, the series of annual runoff for 1958–2019 were analyzed. The research method was the analysis of runoff time series for the presence of homogeneity in the mean (Student’s criterion), as well as spectral analysis. Comparison of mean long-term values of runoff layers for two periods (1958–2000 and 2001–2019) showed that the “norm” increased by 5–37%. It should be noted that these changes are not random according to the Student’s criterion with significance level of 5%. The presence of a trend in long-term water availability fluctuations is also evidenced by the time course of the dynamic mean annual runoff. Analysis of the runoff series, mean annual air temperature and total annual precipitation made it possible to conclude that annual runoff increase is caused by climatic changes, mainly by an increase in precipitation. It is possible that runoff increase is also due to the thawing of ice in the permafrost strata. But you should pay attention to the fact that with climate warming, moisture losses for evapotranspiration increase, primarily due to the growth of trees and shrubs. Moreover, this effect is more noticeable in large catchments. A 6-year cyclicity was revealed in the long-term fluctuations of annual runoff. These fluctuations are most likely a non-stationary complex Markov process. The results of this work will be useful for hydrological calculations, long-term and ultra-long-term runoff forecasts, and studying the river – sea ecosystems. Further hydrological studies should be carried out with the obligatory study of evapotranspiration in various landscape conditions.

A multi-scenario ensemble approach incorporating stepwise cluster analysis to reduce uncertainty in large-scale watershed precipitation projections: a case study of Pearl River Basin, South China.

Assessing and selecting climate models with lower uncertainty is necessary to predict future climate and hydrological risks at the watershed scale. In this study, we integrated stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) to propose a multi-model ensemble downscaling framework aimed at reducing the uncertainty of GCM-based precipitation projections in large-scale watersheds. The Pearl River Basin (PRB) in southern China was selected as the study area to validate the reliability of this framework. Spatially, we investigated the features of terrain-related spatial heterogeneity in precipitation simulation of different climate models using a stepwise cluster zoning approach. The spatial performance of most CMIP6 models was effective in capturing the annual mean precipitation from the source region to the downstream of the PRB. To further evaluate the model's skill in simulating precipitation patterns, we conducted a seasonal analysis for different periods throughout the year. However, the seasonal precipitation cycle exhibited a wet bias during cold seasons, and the most significant deviation of precipitation percentage intervals occurred during winter. The TSS ranking of CMIP6 models was used to select the top-performing models to construct an improved multi-model ensemble mean (MEM5), resulting in a more accurate precipitation simulation for PRB. Results showed consistent precipitation increases (p < 0.05) for all scenarios in the PRB, with the middle and lower reaches being the most sensitive to changes in precipitation. The improved MEM5 can serve as a valuable reference for accurately simulating hydrological regimes and extreme weather events in the PRB. The proposed multi-model ensemble downscaling framework, which incorporates SCA, offers a new approach for high-resolution and low-uncertainty climate simulations in other large-scale watersheds.

Have Climate Factor Changes Jeopardized the Value of Qinghai Grassland Ecosystem Services within the Grass–Animal Balance?

Internal and external environmental changes have led to changes in the service value of plateau ecosystems. Plateau ecosystems are facing a risk of falling into “recession”. Meanwhile, climate change has become an important factor affecting the service value of plateau grassland ecosystems. In this paper, from the perspective of how changes in climate factors inhibit the value of ecosystem services of plateau grasslands, we adopt the equivalent factor method to measure the value of grassland ecosystem services in eight municipal levels in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2021. We also construct a fixed utility model to test how changes in climate factors affect the value of ecosystem services and use the grass–animal balance as a mediating effect model for the test. The results of the study showed that (1) the increase in temperature and precipitation among the changes in climate factors significantly suppresses the ecosystem service value of grassland in the plateau. (2) The mediation test shows that the grass–livestock balance helped suppress the effects of climate factor changes on the ecological service value of plateau grassland. (3) The heterogeneity test shows that the area containing the Three-River-Source National Park is more resistant to climate factor changes. Climate factor changes have a greater impact on the ecosystem service value of plateau grassland in high altitude areas and have a significant positive effect on sustained low grassland carrying pressure index status. Therefore, in the protection of plateau grassland ecosystems, we should pay attention to the inputs in the ecosystems as well as appropriate grazing. At the same time, this study can provide a reference value for the decision-making with respect to ecological natural resources protection or restoration in plateau grassland under the effects of climate factors.

Evaluating land use and climate change impacts on Ravi river flows using GIS and hydrological modeling approach

The study investigates the interplay of land use dynamics and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Ravi River using a comprehensive approach integrating Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and hydrological modeling at the catchment scale. Employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, simulations were conducted to evaluate the hydrological response of the Ravi River to both current conditions and projected future scenarios of land use and climate change. This study differs from previous ones by simulating future land use and climate scenarios, offering a solid framework for understanding their impact on river flow dynamics. Model calibration and validation were performed for distinct periods (1999–2002 and 2003–2005), yielding satisfactory performance indicators (NSE, R2, PBIAS = 0.85, 0.83, and 10.01 in calibration and 0.87, 0.89, and 7.2 in validation). Through supervised classification techniques on Landsat imagery and TerrSet modeling, current and future land use maps were generated, revealing a notable increase in built-up areas from 1990 to 2020 and projections indicating further expansion by 31.7% from 2020 to 2100. Climate change projections under different socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) were derived for precipitation and temperature, with statistical downscaling applied using the CMhyd model. Results suggest substantial increases in precipitation (10.9 − 14.9%) and temperature (12.2 − 15.9%) across the SSP scenarios by the end of the century. Two scenarios, considering future climate conditions with current and future land use patterns, were analyzed to understand their combined impact on hydrological responses. In both scenarios, inflows to the Ravi River are projected to rise significantly (19.4 − 28.4%) from 2016 to 2100, indicating a considerable alteration in seasonal flow patterns. Additionally, historical data indicate a concerning trend of annual groundwater depth decline (0.8 m/year) from 1996 to 2020, attributed to land use and climate changes. The findings underscore the urgency for planners and managers to incorporate climate and land cover considerations into their strategies, given the potential implications for water resource management and environmental sustainability.

Grass leaf structural and stomatal trait responses to climate gradients assessed over the 20th century and across the Great Plains, USA.

Abstract. Using herbarium specimens spanning 133 years and field-collected measurements, we assessed intraspecific trait (leaf structural and stomatal) variability from grass species in the Great Plains of North America. We focused on two widespread, closely related grasses from the tribe Paniceae: Dichanthelium oligosanthes subsp. scribnerianum (C3) and Panicum virgatum (C4). Thirty-one specimens per taxon were sampled from local herbaria from the years 1887 to 2013 to assess trait responses across time to changes in atmospheric [CO2] and growing season precipitation and temperature. In 2021 and 2022, the species were measured from eight grasslands sites to explore how traits vary spatially across natural continental precipitation and temperature gradients. Δ13C increased with atmospheric [CO2] for D. oligosanthes but decreased for P. virgatum, likely linked to increases in precipitation in the study region over the past century. Notably, this is the first record of decreasing Δ13C over time for a C4 species illustrating 13C linkages to climate. As atmospheric [CO2] increased, C:N increased and δ15N decreased for both species and %N decreased for D. oligosanthes. Across a large precipitation gradient, D. oligosanthes leaf traits were more responsive to changes in precipitation than those of P. virgatum. In contrast, only two traits of P. virgatum responded to increases in temperature across a gradient: specific leaf area (increase) and leaf dry matter content (decrease). The only shared significant trend between species was increased C:N with precipitation. Our work demonstrates that these closely related grass species with different photosynthetic pathways exhibited various trait responses across temporal and spatial scales, illustrating the key role of scale of inquiry for forecasting leaf trait responses to future environmental change.

Two‐Decadal Variability of Lacustrine Groundwater Discharge: Coupled Controls From Weather and Hydrologic Changes

AbstractLacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) is a vital water and solute source for lakes. However, the understanding of the long‐term temporal variability of LGD remains limited owing to insufficient insights into driving mechanisms, such as climatic and hydrologic changes. In this study, we examined the oxbow lake group in the central Yangtze River (YR) and assessed the LGD rates from 2000 to 2022 using 222Rn combined with meteorological and hydrological data. The findings revealed that groundwater was recharged during the wet season and discharged to the lakes during the dry season. We established a mathematical model to link the LGD rates to the meteorological and hydrological factors of the lakes, which accounted for 98.70% of the LGD rate variance. Using a predictive model combined with meteorological and hydrological data to assess the LGD rate over the past two decades, it was found that in wet years with higher precipitation and higher average YR water levels, the LGD rate was higher. The gradual increase in precipitation during the rising water and wet seasons, along with a slow rise in the YR water levels, will cause the LGD rate to exhibit a slightly increasing trend with fluctuations in the future. This study proposed an innovative approach to investigate the long‐term temporal variation in LGD and identify the weather and hydrological influences on LGD.

Different Modulations of Arctic Oscillation on Wintertime Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Northeast Pacific

AbstractPersistent positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the mid‐latitude Northeast Pacific (NEP), also known as “warm blob” or “marine heatwave,” have substantial ecological and climate effects. This study delves into the spatiotemporal connection between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and SSTAs in the NEP. First, we conduct the lead‐lag correlation and maximum covariance analyses to disentangle the closest temporal relationship between October AO and wintertime SSTAs in the NEP. Then, we categorize the years in positive AO (pAO) phase into two groups: positive AO with warm anomaly (pAO&amp;Blob) group and positive AO without warm anomaly (pAO&amp;noBlob) group based on the October AO index and wintertime blob index. Results show that the positive phase of AO in October strongly influences the wintertime warm SSTAs in the NEP through local and remote pathways. The local pathway is contingent upon the longitudinal positioning of AO‐related high‐pressure anomaly (i.e., anomalous ridge) in the North Pacific. When easterly anomalies prevail at the southern flank of the anomalous ridge over the NEP, they foster warm SSTAs in the NEP. However, different locations of the high‐pressure anomalies may impede the NEP warming. Remote pathways indicate the teleconnections triggered by AO‐related precipitation increase in Greenland and decrease in East Asia, sustaining the high‐pressure anomaly and promoting the anomalous NEP warming. Hence, this study presents new evidence on polar and mid‐latitude climate connections, which may provide potential predictability for the warm SSTAs in the NEP.

Reversal of the Spatiotemporal Patterns at the End of the Growing Season of Typical Steppe Vegetation in a Semi-Arid Region by Increased Precipitation

Vegetation phenology serves as a sensitive indicator of climate change. However, the mechanism of the hydrothermal role in vegetation phenology changes is still controversial. Utilizing the data on the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) from MODIS and meteorological data, the study employed the dynamic threshold method to derive the end of the growing season (EOS). The research delved into the spatiotemporal patterns of the EOS for typical steppe vegetation in the semi-arid region of Inner Mongolia spanning the period from 2003 to 2022. Furthermore, the investigation scrutinized the response of EOS to temperature and precipitation dynamics. The results showed that (1) the dynamic threshold method exhibited robust performance in the EOS of typical steppe vegetation, with an optimal threshold of 45% and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.5 days (r = 0.81); (2) the spatiotemporal patterns of the EOS of typical steppe vegetation in the semi-arid region experienced a noteworthy reversal from 2003 to 2022; (3) the lag effects of precipitation and temperature on the EOS were found, and the lag time scales were mainly 1 month and 2 months. The increase in precipitation in August was the key reason for the reversal of the EOS, and satisfying the precipitation was a prerequisite for the temperature to delay the EOS. The study emphasizes the important role of water availability in regulating the response of the EOS to hydrothermal factors and highlights the utility and reliability of FPAR in monitoring the EOS of typical steppe vegetation.

Effects of simulated precipitation changes on soil respiration:Progress and prospects.

Soil respiration, the main pathway for transferring terrestrial carbon pool to atmospheric carbon pool, is profoundly affected by the intensification in global precipitation variability in the context of climate change. Nowadays, variable controlling methods and field manipulation experiments are two main methods widely used to investigate the effects of simulated precipitation changes on soil respiration. Yet, due to the heterogeneity of soil properties, vegetation types, and the magnitude of precipitation change, there is substantial inconsistency in the conclusions of simulated precipitation change effects on soil respiration. Here, we analyzed data from domestic and foreign literature, and examined the effects of simulated precipitation change on soil respiration. Firstly, we described the response pattern of soil respiration to soil moisture fluctuation and pointed out that the magnitude and direction of the response of soil respiration to simulated precipitation change depended on whether soil moisture was optimally conditioned at different precipitation treatments. Second, we summarized the response patterns of soil respiration to symmetric increase and decrease in precipitation, which mainly included symmetric and asymmetric responses (positive and negative asymmetric). Meanwhile, the adaptation of plants and soil microorganisms to drought stress and soil oxygen limitation, as well as the reduction of organic substrates, were the main mechanisms accounting for the shifts of soil respiration response patterns to simulated precipitation change from symmetric to asymmetric responses. Third, we identified a significant effect of ambient climate on soil respiration in response to precipitation treatments as increasing duration of the experimental treatments. In addition, cumulative or buffering effects of ambient climatic conditions on precipitation treatment could affect the sensitivity of soil respiration along precipitation gradient by altering hydrothermal conditions. Finally, to accurately assess the implications of precipitation changes on soil carbon balance processes, we proposed three aspects of future precipitation effects on soil respiration for attention: 1) focusing on the phenomenon of "threshold effects" in the asymmetric response of soil respiration along precipitation gradients; 2) distinguishing the intrinsic mechanisms of autotrophic and heterotrophic components in soil respiration in response to precipitation changes; and 3) focusing on the impacts of intensified precipitation variability on soil respiration in the context of future climate extremes. In conclusion, with the intensified variability in global precipitation patterns, clarifying the response mechanism of soil respiration to precipitation changes is of great significance for accurately predicting and evaluating the alterations of soil carbon cycle processes and carbon balance in the context of global changes.

Contribution of soil microbial necromass carbon to soil organic carbon in grassland under precipitation change and its influencing factors in loess hilly region, Northwest China.

To investigate the contribution of microbial necromass carbon (MNC) to soil organic carbon (SOC) and its influencing factors under precipitation changes in grassland, we conducted a precipitation experiment with seven different precipitation levels in the Bothriochloa ischaemum restoration area in the loess hilly region. We analyzed the contents and characteristics of fungal necromass carbon (FNC), bacterial necromass carbon (BNC), and MNC in different fractions of SOC under different treatments, including natural precipitation (CK), and increased and decreased 20%, 40%, 60% of natural precipitation (I20, I40, I60, D20, D40, D60) . The results showed that 1) MNC content in mineral organic carbon (MAOC) ranged from 1.62 g·kg-1 to 2.17 g·kg-1, which was higher than that in particulate organic carbon (POC) ranging from 0.69 g·kg-1 to 1.31 g·kg-1. The former was approximately 1.4 to 2.8 times as that of the latter. 2) FNC and MNC exhibited similar changes in both MAOC and POC fractions. BNC content in MAOC was approximately 1-3.1 times as that of FNC. FNC content in POC was generally higher than BNC except for I40 and I60 where BNC exceeded FNC. 3) Overall, both increases and decreases in precipitation resulted in elevated MNC/MAOC and BNC/MAOC ratios, but decreased MNC/POC and FNC/POC ratios. The MNC/MAOC ratios in I60 and D60 were 33.2% and 18.1% higher than CK, respectively. The BNC/MAOC ratios in D60, I40 and I60 were 28.0%, 23.0% and 19.1% higher than those in CK, respectively. Except for D60, the FNC/POC and MNC/POC ratios were significantly lower than CK under other treatments. In terms of POC fractions, the MNC/POC ratios of D40, D20, I20, I40 and I60 were 28.4%, 23.3%, 28.8%, 23.3% and 32.2% lower than that of CK, respectively. The FNC/POC ratio of D40, D20, I20, I40 and I60 was found to be lower by 23.3%, 16.1%, 21.0%, 27.0% and 31.0% compared to that of CK, respectively. 4) NH4+-N and pH were the primary factors influencing the content of MNC in different carbon fractions under varying precipitation conditions. In summary, alterations in precipitation (either increase or decrease) enhanced the contribution of BNC-dominated MNC to MAOC, but reduced the contribution of FNC-dominated MNC to POC. This study was of significance for understanding the distribution of microbial necromass across different organic carbon fractions under precipitation alterations.

Quantifying Sahel Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Variability, Soil Moisture and Vegetation Changes Using Analytical Methods

AbstractWhilst substantial efforts have been deployed to understand the “Sahel hydrological paradox”, most of the studies focused on small experimental watersheds around the central and western Sahel. To our knowledge, there is no study on this issue covering all the watersheds located within the Sahelian belt. The absence of relevant studies may be attributed to a sparsity of in situ data leading to a dearth of knowledge on the Sahel hydrology. To fill this knowledge gap, the present study leverages analytical methods and freely available geospatial datasets to understand the effects of climatic factors, soil moisture and vegetation cover changes on surface runoff in 45 watersheds located within the Sahelian belt over two decades (2000–2021). Analyses show increasing trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in more than 80% of the watersheds. Surface runoff, soil moisture (SM), and vegetation cover measured using the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) also show increasing trends in all the watersheds. Multivariable linear regression (MLR) analyses reveal that precipitation, PET, SM, and NDVI contribute about 62% of surface runoff variance. Further analyses using MLR, and the partial least squares regression (PLSR) show that precipitation and NDVI are the main factors influencing surface runoff in the Sahel. Elasticity coefficients reveal that a 10% increase in precipitation, SM and NDVI may lead to about 22%, 26% and 45% increase in surface runoff respectively. In contrast, a 10% increase in PET may lead to a 61% decline in surface runoff in the Sahel. This is the first hydrological study covering all the watersheds located within the Sahelian belt with results showing that surface runoff is influenced by climate, SM and NDVI to varying degrees. Given the unique hydrological characteristics of the Sahel, a better understanding of the different factors influencing surface runoff may be crucial for enhancing climate adaptation and ecological restoration efforts in the region such as the Great Green Wall Initiative.

Understanding Observed Precipitation Change and the New Climate Normal from the Perspective of Daily Weather Types in the Southeast United States

Abstract Observed precipitation changes in the Southeast United States (SEUS) are spatially heterogeneous. Most of the inland SEUS and eastern Gulf Coast become drier, and the East Coast north of Charleston, South Carolina, and southern Florida become wetter from the old 30-yr period of 1961–90 to the recent period of 1991–2020. The observed climate change is examined from the perspective of daily weather types (WTs). A k-means clustering analysis has been conducted using daily 850-hPa circulation for 1948–2021. The obtained 10 WTs peak in different seasons, respectively. The frequencies and precipitation intensity of the WTs have been analyzed. A winter WT characterized by a western Appalachian trough (WAT) and a summer WT featuring North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) have a rising trend of annual frequency from 1948 to 2021. An Appalachian high in the autumn has a decreasing frequency but becomes drier and stronger. Some precipitation intensity change and small location shift have also been observed. The drying up on the eastern Gulf Coast and the inland area of the SEUS is mainly caused by the weakened southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) on the western flank of the NASH that reduces rain in the spring, the less frequent but stronger and drier Appalachian high in the summer and autumn, and the weaker and more western located Plains trough (PT) in the winter, spring, and autumn. The precipitation increase in the East Coast and southern Florida is majorly due to more frequent, stronger, and rainier troughs along the western Appalachian as well as the East Coast.

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of dengue transmission in Lao PDR

Dengue, a zoonotic viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, poses a significant public health concern throughout the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study aimed to describe spatial–temporal patterns and quantify the effects of environmental and climate variables on dengue transmission at the district level. The dengue data from 2015 to 2020 across 148 districts of Lao PDR were obtained from the Lao PDR National Center for Laboratory and Epidemiology (NCLE). The association between monthly dengue occurrences and environmental and climate variations was investigated using a multivariable Zero-inflated Poisson regression model developed in a Bayesian framework. The study analyzed a total of 72,471 dengue cases with an incidence rate of 174 per 100,000 population. Each year, incidence peaked from June to September and a large spike was observed in 2019. The Bayesian spatio-temporal model revealed a 9.1% decrease (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.9%, 9.2%) in dengue incidence for a 0.1 unit increase in monthly normalized difference vegetation index at a 1-month lag and a 5.7% decrease (95% CrI 5.3%, 6.2%) for a 1 cm increase in monthly precipitation at a 6-month lag. Conversely, dengue incidence increased by 43% (95% CrI 41%, 45%) for a 1 °C increase in monthly mean temperature at a 3-month lag. After accounting for covariates, the most significant high-risk spatial clusters were detected in the southern regions of Lao PDR. Probability analysis highlighted elevated trends in 45 districts, emphasizing the importance of targeted control strategies in high-risk areas. This research underscores the impact of climate and environmental factors on dengue transmission, emphasizing the need for proactive public health interventions tailored to specific contexts in Lao PDR.