Increase In Oil Prices Research Articles

A computer simulation study of the impact of the oil crisis on the structure of the world economy in the 1970s

Abstract The outbreak of the oil crisis in the 1970s had an extremely profound impact on the world economy. The use of computer simulation is employed in this paper to explore how the oil crisis led to the restructuring of the world economy in the 1970s. Taking the United States as a representative, we study its main economic characteristics, such as price and currency in the 1970s oil crisis, and analyze the changes in economic characteristics before and after the oil crisis to provide data support for this paper to simulate the impact of the oil crisis on the structure of the world economy. Adopt the VAR model for computer simulation research. The GDP and CPI data of the United States, Europe, Japan, and other countries in the 1970s are selected to construct the variables of the world economic structure. After analyzing the processed data in terms of the Granger causality test, impulse response, and variance decomposition, this paper concludes that the oil crisis triggered by the increase of oil prices in the 1970s has had a significant impact on the world economic structure and the long-term oil crisis will force countries around the world to actively adjust their economic structure in order to cope with the downturn of the economy caused by the oil crisis.

Do institutions matter for oil prices and economic growth relationship?: A regulatory policy implication

This study empirically investigates the moderating effect of institutional quality on the oil price-economic growth relationship among selected African oil-importing economies for a thirty-year period from 1990 to 2020. The study employs a panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) model using a pooled mean group estimator (PMG) with oil price and institutional quality as the main variables. Results from the analyses indicate that oil price increase has a negative effect on economic growth in oil-importing countries and these results are consistent with the previous findings by Kudabayeva et al. (2024) amongst others. Moreover, the study established a positive and significant effect of institutional quality on economic growth. The positive and significant effect of the interaction term between oil price and institutional quality suggests that better quality institutions are critical for moderating the negative effects of oil price changes on economic growth, consistent with findings by Abdelsalam (2023). The findings from this study suggest that net oil importers should focus on eliminating dependency on oil energy and promote investment into alternative non-petroleum renewable energy sources for sustainable development. Policy reforms should focus on strengthening of robust institutions to mitigate the effects of oil price shocks and promote the growth prospects of African countries.

Fuel Price Increase: Unveiling the Torments and Agonies of the Transportation Sector — Basis for Policy Formation

This study aimed to investigate the impact of oil price hikes on the transportation sector in Padada, Davao del Sur. Utilizing a phenomenological approach and qualitative design, purposive sampling was conducted among fourteen participants from various transportation sectors. Data was analyzed through Data Reduction, Data Display, and Conclusion Verification, with assistance from a data analyst. The findings indicate that rising fuel prices significantly affect livelihoods and lifestyles, highlighting the broader impact of global issues on local communities. Additionally, increased oil prices have led to fare adjustments, impacting passengers' monthly budgets. The study suggests that government programs to support local transportation owners and drivers and initiatives for domestic oil exploration could mitigate these effects. Budget constraints and fuel price stabilization policies were also identified as relevant considerations for public administration. Consequently, it is recommended that the Local Government Unit of Padada, Davao del Sur, propose policies to address the impact of oil price increases on the transportation sector. Additionally, revising and strengthening Municipality Ordinance 003, Series of 2009, which allows for passenger fare adjustments based on daily oil prices, is advised.

Perbandingan Algoritma Support Vector Machine dan Random Forest untuk Analisis Sentimen Terhadap Kebijakan Pemerintah Indonesia Terkait Kenaikan Harga BBM Tahun 2022

The commodity of fuel oil (BBM) is the main commodity and the driving force of business. The increase in world oil prices is a threat to countries around the world, one of which is Indonesia. With the turbulent conditions in several countries, the Indonesian government decided to cut fuel subsidies which had an impact on price increases. The policy invited all Indonesian people and criticized it on various social media. The purpose of this research is to find out which algorithm has a better accuracy rate and to provide input to the government about public opinion regarding the increase in fuel prices in Indonesia. From the test results both work well, this is evidenced by the accuracy value obtained, where the support vector machine algorithm produces an accuracy value of 77%, while the Random Forest algorithm produces an accuracy value of 76%. So it can be concluded that the support vector machine algorithm has a fairly good accuracy rate compared to the Random Forest algorithm.

Study of the basic laws and parameters of immobilization of yeast cells on various carriers for the production of bioethanol

Over the past few years, due to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices, as well as a number of environmental problems, the world has seen a rapid increase in the consumption of bioethanol, the production of which o based on the use of biorenewable raw materials. Today, over 90% of bioethanol is produced, as a rule, using yeast cells (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) as catalysts. With the help of microorganisms immobilized by cells, it is possible to organize economically efficient production of ethanol based on whey. A bioreactor with immobilized yeast cells allows for a continuous process of whey fermentation under optimal conditions with a high yield of bioethanol. Immobilized yeast cells have been found to be superior to free yeast cells because immobilized cells are more ethanol resistant and have lower substrate inhibition. Various researchers have concluded that immobilized S. cerevisiae produces more ethanol compared to free cells, although the immobilizing agents used varied.

Comprehensive Analysis of DC/DC Converters for Electric Vehicles Applications: Topologies and Future Perspectives

In order to implement the global sustainable development strategy, reduce the burden of traditional fuel vehicles on the environment, and at the same time, due to the increasing oil prices, more and more people are reluctant to use fuel vehicles, the global automobile industry. The centre of gravity has gradually shifted from traditional industrial energy vehicles to electric vehicles. As an integral part of the electric vehicle powertrain, the DC/DC converter has the important function of supplying power to the power steering system, air conditioning and other auxiliary equipment.This paper describes in detail the DC/DC converters that provide power for electric vehicles, describes in detail the different types of DC/DC converters as well as the different topologies, and analyses the characteristics of each topology and the method of providing power to the circuit by drawing the circuit of the different topologies. Next, the advantages and disadvantages of various topologies are compared, and improvement methods and future prospects are proposed for the shortcomings of different topologies.

The future of biofuels in the United States transportation sector

There is a growing need to produce renewable liquid fuels for heavy duty transportation and aviation, and cellulosic biomass is a promising source for those fuels. However, the many conversion options for biomass to fuels have not been systematically studied in the context of the USA transportation sector. Accordingly, we improve the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model to include a rich suite of potential biofuel conversion pathways. We further add region-specific CO2 transportation and injection costs and current USA tax credits to study the potential of biofuels under realistic cost scenarios. We show that while under current credits, biofuels play a role only in some regions of the USA, a range of scenarios such as increased tax credits, increased biomass availability, or increased oil price could all lead to biofuels playing a significant role.

Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model

In theory, changes in the price of oil, which is a critical raw material for production, can affect the Producer Price Index (PPI). In this study, the PCA method is first employed to extract factors from the PPI of 39 industrial sectors in China, followed by the application of the NARDL model to analyze the nonlinear effects of international oil price fluctuations on the PPI of three industries. The results indicate that the long and short-term fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on the PPI of resource-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries, but the impact on capital and technology-intensive industries is not significant. However, it is worth noting that the long-term increases in oil prices will have a negative impact on the PPI of resource-intensive industries. From the perspective of asymmetry, the positive and negative shocks of international oil prices will have an asymmetric impact on the PPI of labor-intensive industries, while the impact on resource-intensive industries is symmetric. Based on the existing conclusions, this article proposes relevant policy recommendations from the perspectives of both government and enterprises.

Sosialisasi Pencegahan Peredaran BBM Oplosan di Masyarakat

The increase in oil prices and other living expenses has contributed to the rise of illegal fuel adulteration practices. In order to make huge profits from the minimal cost of fuel production and distribution, certain individuals are willing to carry out these illegal practices, despite the risks and impacts they cause. The lack of knowledge and awareness in communities about adulterated fuels, as well as the lack of encouragement from the government to eradicate them, has also increased the number of these illegal practices. Being a progressive village with numerous people and activities, Passo Village needs a proper sustainable fuel supply. Therefore, it is important to raise awareness in Passo Village’s community about the characteristics and dangers of adulterated fuels in order to prevent their circulation and the practices involved. On account of this objective, the socialization program has been conducted in Passo Village in the method of material presentation.

Pengaruh Perang Rusia dan Ukraina Terhadap Perekonomian Negara Kawasan Asia Tenggara

The war between Ukraine and Russia has had a big influence on the world, especially from a political perspective. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, February 24 2022 stems from internal conflict between the two countries. Due to this incident, Russia received criticism from the international community, including Indonesia. The United States condemned the invasion and imposed economic sanctions on Russia. These sanctions take the form of stopping the operations of Russian-owned financial institutions in the United States, freezing all investment assets and property of individuals close to the Russian President, as well as restrictions on Russian debt transactions. After being hit by economic sanctions, Russia was also subject to a crude oil embargo by the European Union and the United States. The war that occurred influenced the increase in oil prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, causing new challenges in the global economy. This research uses library research. Library research is research whose main object is literature (library) which utilizes sources from literature to obtain research data, so that library research limits its activities to literary materials related to the research object. The research results show that the war between Russia and Ukraine has had various negative impacts that threaten all sectors, especially the economy in terms of global trade. As is known, these two countries are the largest suppliers of various main commodities such as wheat, fertilizer, natural gas and oil. Where these commodities are really needed by international consumers. Russia and Ukraine have a significant market share of the supply of oil, gas and other commodities, so the invasion has increased the prices of these commodities. The direct impact of rising commodity prices affects economic growth in the countries involved. This means that the economy in Southeast Asia will be affected by the war that is taking place. Continued conflict could have drastic effects in Southeast Asia. The impact of the Russian and Ukrainian wars has an impact on the Southeast Asian economy and will be more detrimental than the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic. This is because it is related to the global economy in essential areas.

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RUSSIAN INVASION TO UKRAINE: INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE BY INCREASING FUEL PRICES IN 2022

This study aims to explain how the response of the Indonesian government by increasing the price of fuel oil (BBM) because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By using the theory of the decision-making process, this article discusses how the Indonesian government formulates and implements policies regarding the increase in fuel prices as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which resulted in a supply shock and an increase in world crude oil prices. This article may be the first article that discusses in detail the Indonesian government's response to the increase in world crude oil prices, along with a discussion of the response of the affected Indonesian people. This article uses a qualitative research method, with data collection techniques using literature, and data processing from Twitter is done with NVivo 12 Plus which produces Word Cloud data. The Indonesian government's response to the raising of subsidized fuel prices was caused by several rational considerations that had two sides, namely advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is that by increasing fuel prices, the government can reduce the burden that must be borne by the state budget. The losses incurred are the burden on the lower middle-class people in meeting their needs for fuel, both for mobility and other needs. The Indonesian government adopts policies that maintain the stability of the country's economy by providing social assistance to the people so that people's fuel needs are still met.

Investigation of environmental factors on the resistance characteristic: Study case of the designed patrol boat hull

The increase in world oil prices has led to high operational costs in the maritime sector. In this regard, it is necessary to increase efficiency in the use of fuel in the maritime transportation security sector. Resistance on the ship’s hull affects efficiency and fuel consumption. In previous studies, there have been analyses on internal factors of the ship’s hull, such as appendages, which can affect the resistance value of the ship’s hull. However, examination of the external factors, e.g., the condition of the waters during operations of patrol boats, is still scant. This study conducts a series of analyses of the influence of environmental factors on the hull resistance values, such as water density and wind speed, with five different conditions. The results of this study are expected to be a reliable reference in predicting hull performance under different environments, especially in an attempt to reduce fuel consumption due to resistance.

The Implications of Palm Cooking Oil Price Increases in Malaysia

Domestic palm oil consumption in Malaysia increased to about 3.37 million metric tons in 2022. This number is expected to increase further due to population growth and consumer preferences for palm oil cooking oil. However, in 2016, the government withdrew its subsidy on palm cooking oil, increasing its price by 48.9%. Recently, the government proposed to use a floating price for palm cooking oil. These changes have left direct and indirect impacts on food producers and consumers. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of an increase in the price of palm cooking oil on food producers (directly) and consumers (indirectly). This study applied the Leontief price modelling technique and simulated a scenario for the price changes in the production cost. The simulation results indicated that costs and prices changed. The results found that the most significant cost change came from restaurants, 52.0%, while other price changes were from oil palm (29.6%) and restaurants (17.4%). This study also used the profit index to calculate the profit food producers and services gained. Based on this scenario, food producers should revise their prices of goods and services since they still gain profit. It was recommended that the government revise the price of palm cooking oil by providing subsidies or incentives to the food producer or consumer. The fluctuation in palm oil prices impacts the price of palm cooking oil in the market. If the government does not revise cooking oil prices, it will affect food consumers and producers.

The Impact of the Increase of Oil Fuel Price and Government Subsidy on Indonesia’s Economic Performance

The policy of increasing domestic fuel oil, as a consequence of rising world oil prices, has resulted in changing economic conditions, bearing in mind that oil prices and production are wrong macroeconomic assumptions and are included in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget. This study aims to determine the impact of rising fuel prices and government subsidies on Indonesia's economic performance. The data used in this study are time series data from 2000 to 2022. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Ministry of Finance, and Bank Indonesia. This study uses an econometric model using a system of simultaneous equations. The research results show that; The main factors that caused the increase in domestic fuel prices, including crude oil prices, gasoline, diesel, kerosene and aviation fuel, were the increase in world oil prices and the previous year's oil prices. The estimation results also show that the increase in gasoline and diesel fuel can increase the number of poor people, unemployment and inflation in Indonesia. The policy simulation results show that the increase in oil prices has a significant impact on increasing the number of poor people, increasing unemployment and inflation, if this increase is not followed by subsidies in the form of non-energy.

Oil price dynamics in times of uncertainty: Revisiting the role of demand and supply shocks

Drivers of real oil prices have been explored extensively in the literature with little consensus. Using a new identification scheme based on forecast error variance, we identify oil-specific demand, demand, and oil supply shocks that maximize the sum of forecast error variance of three variables explained by their respective shocks. The estimation, with the sample period until 2007, suggests that the three identified shocks have similar effects as in the early literature, with oil-specific demand shocks playing a prominent role. However, in the post-crisis period supply shocks have emerged as a source of short-run increases in oil prices, and demand shocks do not have a long-run effect on prices, unlike in the pre-crisis period. By further including risk in the model, we show that the importance of supply shock in driving oil prices in the short run is not driven by global risk. These estimates overwhelmingly suggest zero short-run supply elasticity - a matter of debate in the recent literature. Aside from oil-specific demand shocks, six episodes (including COVID-19) and a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility identified based on forecast error variance suggest that other shocks, in particular supply shocks, have also played a significant role in driving oil prices in different episodes which cannot be ignored while evaluating the oil price dynamics.

NONLINEAR EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL DEPENDENCY ON FOOD PRICES IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM QUANTILE-ON-QUANTILE APPROACH

The repercussions of disruptions in the global crude oil market have a substantial influence on economies worldwide. Oil shocks are considered important estimators of many economic variables. The current research examines the effects of oil price shocks on food prices in China using monthly data from 2000M1 to 2021M12. The estimation is done using the Quantile on Quantile (QQ) estimation technique. The BDS test is used to test nonlinear dependence in variables. The results of this test confirm the presence of nonlinear dependence in variables. The estimated results of the QQ technique suggest a strong association between oil prices and food prices nexus in China with significant disparities across the quantiles. The lower and medium quantiles show a poor negative effect of crude oil prices on food prices. Nevertheless, it has been shown that there exists a strong positive correlation in the higher quantiles of the distribution, which suggests that an increase in global oil prices directly impacts the costs of food. The outcome of the study offers significant policy recommendations aimed at mitigating the detrimental impact of oil prices on food prices in China.

Challenges to environmental governance arising from the Russo–Ukrainian conflict: Evidence from carbon emissions

The destruction of ecosystems, increase in carbon emissions, and volatility of energy prices following the outbreak of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict constitute a complex situation that environmental managers must cope with. In response, this study aims to explore the impact of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict on carbon emissions in the European Union (EU) and associated heterogeneity factors. This study utilized stacked data from 2021 to 2022 on daily carbon emissions and used the differences-in-differences (DID) model as its methodological framework. This study also provides additional analyses for the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and Russia. The full-blown Russo–Ukrainian conflict led to a significant increase in carbon emissions in the EU, averaging 0.092 MtCO2. Further investigations showed that the conflict led to a significant increase in energy prices and that changes in the prices of different energy sources had a heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions. Specifically, an increase in natural gas prices drove a rise in carbon emissions, whereas an increase in oil prices led to a decrease in carbon emissions in the EU. Third, the conflict also affected countries outside the EU, including the US and the UK, which experienced significant increases in carbon emissions in contrast to Russia, which underwent a decline. Finally, the study identified four sectors - international aviation, industry, power, and residential - as the primary contributors to elevated carbon emissions in the EU. This study provides a novel perspective for exploring the interplay between conflicts and carbon emissions and offers valuable insights into shaping effective environmental management policies and measures.

Asymmetric connectedness between oil price, coal and renewable energy consumption in China: Evidence from Fourier NARDL approach

This paper examines the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on coal and renewable energy consumption in China over long and short periods. The novelty of this study is to investigate whether the consumption of coal and renewable energy are asymmetrically affected by the oil price in a time–frequency framework by performing a Fourier nonlinear ARDL model which is robust to overcome the multiple smooth structural changes in data. The bounds test of the FNARDL specification provide strong evidence of cointegration among variables, including coal energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, oil price, and economic growth. Results reveal the following: First, the oil price-coal energy consumption and oil price-renewable energy consumption relationships are nonlinear. Second, oil price increases have significant short-run effects on coal energy consumption. However, oil price increases induce an increase in renewable energy consumption in China in both the short and the long term. Finally, the relationship between coal energy consumption and economic growth is U-shaped. Hence, increasing oil prices boost China’s prospects for coal in the short term and its usage of renewable energy in the long run.

Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on EUR/USD exchange rate and structural shock decomposition in a BVAR model with sign restriction

We use a VAR model with two exogenous and eight endogenous variables to evaluate the asymmetric effect of oil price changes on the EUR/USD exchange rate. The parameters are estimated with the Bayesian technique using the U.S. and the Eurozone quarterly data from 2001 to 2021. The sign restriction methodology is employed to obtain the VAR model’s structural form from its reduced form. The suggested metrics show highly time-variant oil price effects on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Oil price variability accounts for about half of the exogenous variables shocks that account for about one-third of the deterministic part of the model, which explains about two-thirds of the EUR/USD exchange rate volatility. The structural shock and historical variance decomposition identify significant time-dependent endogenous variables shocks behind the EUR/USD exchange rate variability. The impulse–response function shows asymmetric direct and indirect effects of oil shocks on the EUR/USD exchange rate, whose reaction to a positive oil price shock is more intensive, less smooth, and takes longer than in a negative shock. The dollar appreciates within three quarters after oil price increases, which suggests the United States has a specific comparative advantage compared with the Eurozone in offsetting the effects of the oil shocks.

Pengaruh Kenaikan Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak terhadap Pemilihan Moda Transportasi (Studi Kasus: Perkotaan Yogyakarta)

The increase in world oil prices has led to changes in the price of fuel oil (BBM) in Indonesia. The fuel price change policy impacts various sectors, including the transportation sector. Transportation is one of the basic human needs for moving from one place to another. Various factors are taken into consideration by the community in choosing the mode of transportation to be used. This study aims to analyze the impact of changes in fuel prices on preferences for transportation modes in urban Yogyakarta and to see how people's behaviour changes in mobility. The analytical method used in this research is descriptive and crosstab analysis. Descriptive analysis was used to identify the respondents' characteristics, the journey's characteristics, and the effect of rising fuel prices. Crosstab analysis is used to see the relationship between the characteristics of respondents and the choice of transportation mode before and after the fuel price increase. The data collection method was carried out by distributing questionnaires to the people of Yogyakarta. The choice of transportation mode when fuel oil increases does not change much, whereas in the scenario of changing fuel prices, there is a significant increase. This can be seen from the decrease in car users when there is an increase in the price of fuel oil, while the probability of motorcycle users when the fuel price rises until the fuel price is Rp 12,000 continues to increase, while when the fuel price is Rp 14,000 switch to using public transportation modes, namely the Trans Jogja bus. When the price of fuel oil increases, the frequency of primary trips does not change, while the frequency of secondary trips changes. Transportation costs incurred have increased, and the fuel used has changed; from the first, Pertamax switched to pertalite