Increase In Ocean Heat Content Research Articles

IAPv4 ocean temperature and ocean heat content gridded dataset

Abstract. Ocean observational gridded products are vital for climate monitoring, ocean and climate research, model evaluation, and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures. This paper describes the 4th version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAPv4) ocean temperature and ocean heat content (OHC) objective analysis product. It accounts for recent developments in quality control (QC) procedures, climatology, bias correction, vertical and horizontal interpolation, and mapping and is available for the upper 6000 m (119 levels) since 1940 (more reliable after ∼ 1957) for monthly and 1°×1° temporal and spatial resolutions. IAPv4 is compared with the previous version, IAPv3, and with the other data products, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and satellite observations. It has a slightly stronger long-term upper 2000 m OHC increase than IAPv3 for 1955–2023, mainly because of newly developed bias corrections. The IAPv4 0–2000 m OHC trend is also higher during 2005–2023 than IAPv3, mainly because of the QC process update. The uppermost level of IAPv4 is consistent with independent SST datasets. The month-to-month OHC variability for IAPv4 is desirably less than IAPv3 and the other OHC products investigated in this study, the trend of ocean warming rate (i.e., warming acceleration) is more consistent with the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere than IAPv3, and the sea level budget can be closed within uncertainty. The gridded product is freely accessible at https://doi.org/10.12157/IOCAS.20240117.002 for temperature data (Cheng et al., 2024a) and at https://doi.org/10.12157/IOCAS.20240117.001 for ocean heat content data (Cheng et al., 2024b).

Do Sea Surface Winds and Currents in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Derive the Extreme El Niños?

El Niño is the largest natural climate variability event on an interannual time scale occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is linked to global climate change. The north equatorial countercurrent (NECC) is considered a significant feature of the tropical Pacific current system due to its location and eastward flow direction. The NECC has been suggested as a current that transports the warmer western Pacific waters to the eastern Pacific to trigger the El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific. We investigated how the movements of zonal wind stress (ZWS) and ocean surface currents (OSC) contribute to the sea surface temperature (SST) changes during the El Niño period. During moderate to severe Central Pacific El Niño events, the continuous flow of the NECC extending from the El Niño monitoring region into the eastern Pacific is rarely observed. In addition, a significant increase in ocean heat content compared to the 27-year climatological normal has been identified at temperatures above 28 °C. Therefore, we propose a hypothesis that the additional heat is supplied from the subsurface source and the warm pool is expanded by the subsurface equatorial countercurrent, known as the Equatorial Undercurrent, rather than by the surface currents. The heated water is expected to contribute to the evolution of El Niño by upwelling to the surface along the equator in a north–south symmetric feature.

Ocean Heat Content Increase of the Maritime Continent Since the 1990s

AbstractThe Maritime Continent (MC), a critical region for inter‐basin climate interaction, harbors the world's highest marine biodiversity. Ocean warming in the MC, although with notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems, remains poorly constrained by observations. By applying a volume‐correction algorithm to existing gridded observational data sets, this study provides an estimate for the ocean heat content (OHC) change of the MC. The results suggest a substantial OHC increase of 2.65 ± 0.46 Zettajoules during 1990–2015 (1.08 ± 0.17 W m−2) and limited changes before and after. This increase primarily arose from the enhanced Pacific Walker circulation, which drove a convergence of upper‐layer warm water toward the MC. A potential heat storage “hotspot” with enhanced warming below 500 m emerges within the Sulu Sea, which is supported by analysis of profile data collected in boreal winter but not in other seasons.

Heat content and temperature trends in the Mediterranean Sea as derived from Argo float data

The Mediterranean Sea is very sensitive to climatic changes due to its semi-enclosed nature and is therefore defined as one of the hotspots in future climate change projections. In this study, we use Argo float data to assess climatologies and trends in temperature and Ocean Heat Content (OHC) throughout the Mediterranean Sea and for specific sub-basins (e.g. Western and Eastern Mediterranean, Gulf of Lion, South Adriatic). The amount of the OHC, spatially averaged in bins of 1°x1° over the period from 2001 to 2020, increases from west to east in the Mediterranean Sea. Time series of temperature and OHC from 2005 to 2020, estimated in the surface and intermediate layers (5-700 m) and deeper layer (700-2000 m), reveal significant warming trends and an increase of OHC. The upper 700 m of the Mediterranean Sea show a temperature trend of 0.041 ± 0.012°C·yr-1, corresponding to an annual increase in OHC of 3.59 ± 1.02 W·m-2. The Western Mediterranean Sea (5-700 m) is warming fastest with an increase in temperature at a rate of 0.070 ± 0.015°C·yr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 5.72 ± 1.28 W·m-2. Mixing and convection events within convection sites and along boundary currents transport and disperse the temperature and OHC changes. Significant warming trends are evident in the deeper layers (700-2000 m) of the two deep convection sites in the Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion, South Adriatic), with an exceptionally strong warming trend in the South Adriatic from 2013 to 2020 of 0.058 ± 0.005°C·yr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 9.43 ± 0.85 W·m-2. The warming of the different water masses will show its feedback on ocean dynamics and air-sea fluxes in the next years, decades, and even centuries as these warming waters spread or re-emerge. This will provide more energy to the atmosphere, resulting in more extreme weather events and will also stress ecosystems and accelerate the extinction of several marine species. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate change in the Mediterranean region, and should act as another wake-up call for policy makers and society.

Enhanced Upper Ocean Warming Projected by the Eddy‐Resolving Community Earth System Model

AbstractOcean warming is a key factor impacting future changes in climate. Here we investigate vertical structure changes in globally averaged ocean heat content (OHC) in high‐ (HR) and low‐resolution (LR) future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Compared with observation‐based estimates, the simulated OHC anomalies in the upper 700 and 2,000 m during 1960–2020 are more realistic in CESM‐HR than ‐LR. Under RCP8.5 scenario, the net surface heat into the ocean is very similar in CESM‐HR and ‐LR. However, CESM‐HR has a larger increase in OHC in the upper 250 m compared to CESM‐LR, but a smaller increase below 250 m. This difference can be traced to differences in eddy‐induced vertical heat transport between CESM‐HR and ‐LR in the historical period. Moreover, our results suggest that with the same heat input, upper‐ocean warming is likely to be underestimated by most non‐eddy‐resolving climate models.

Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes

AbstractChanges in ocean heat content are a critical element of climate change, with the oceans containing about 90% of the excess heat stored in the climate system and 60% in the upper 700 db. Estimates of these changes are sensitive to horizontal mapping of the sparse historical data and errors in eXpendable BathyThermograph data. Here we show that they are also sensitive to the vertical interpolation of sparsely sampled data through the water column. We estimate, using carefully constructed vertical interpolation methods with high‐quality hydrographic (bottle and CTD) data, the observationally based upper ocean heat content increase (thermosteric sea level rise) from 1956 to 2020 is 285 Zeta Joules (0.55 mm yr−1), 14% (14%) larger than estimates relying on simple but biased linear interpolation schemes. The underestimates have a clear spatial pattern with their maximum near 15°N and 12°S, around the maxima in the curvature of the temperature‐depth profile.

Variability of Heat Content and Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Southeast Indian Ocean: Roles of the Indonesian Throughflow and Local Wind Forcing

Abstract Prominent interannual-to-decadal variations were observed in both heat content and mesoscale eddy activity in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) during 1993–2020. The 2000–01 and 2008–14 periods stand out with increased 0–700-m ocean heat content (OHC) by ∼4.0 × 1021 J and enhanced surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) by 12.5% over 85°–115°E, 35°–12°S. This study provides insights into the key dynamical processes conducive to these variations by analyzing observational datasets and high-resolution regional ocean model simulations. The strengthening of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and anomalous cyclonic winds over the SEIO region during the two periods are demonstrated to be the most influential. While the ITF caused prevailing warming of the upper SEIO, the cyclonic winds cooled the South Equatorial Current and attenuated the warming in the subtropical SEIO by evoking upwelling Rossby waves. The EKE increase exerts significant influence on OHC only in the Leeuwin Current system. Dynamical instabilities of the Leeuwin Current give rise to high EKEs and westward eddy heat transport in climatology. As the Leeuwin Current was enhanced by both the ITF and local winds, the elevated EKEs drove anomalous heat convergence on its offshore flank. This process considerably contributes to the OHC increase in the subtropical SEIO and erases the wind-driven cooling during the two warm periods. This work highlights the vital role of eddies in regional heat redistribution, with implications for understanding time-varying ocean heat storage in a changing climate.

Improved Quantification of the Rate of Ocean Warming

Abstract The increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere create an increase in Earth’s thermal energy, which is mainly stored in the ocean. Quantification of the rate of increase in ocean heat content (OHC) is vital for understanding the current and future climate of Earth. Linear trend lines have been frequently used to quantify long-term rates of change, but are inappropriate because they cannot capture nonlinearity in trends, have large start- and end-point sensitivity, and the assumption of linearity is nonphysical. Here observed and model-based linear regressions with higher-order polynomial (quadratic), piecewise linear, and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) are compared. Piecewise linear and LOWESS perform best in depicting multidecadal trends. It is shown that linear rates are valid for up to about 15-yr segments (i.e., it is valid to compute linear rates within a 15-yr time window). Using the recommended methods, ocean warming for the upper 2000 m increases from about 0 to 0.06 ± 0.08 W m−2 for 1958–73 to 0.58 ± 0.08 W m−2 for 2003–18, indicating an acceleration of ocean warming that happens in all four ocean basins and from near the sea surface to 2000 m. There is consistency between multimodel-mean historically forced climate models and observations, which implies that the contribution of internal variability is small for global 0–2000 m OHC. Notable increases of OHC in the upper ocean (i.e., 0–300 m) after about 1980 and the deeper ocean (300–2000 m) after the late 1980s are also evident. This study suggests alternative methods to those currently used to estimate ocean warming rates to provide a more accurate quantification of long-term Earth’s energy changes. Significance Statement Quantifying long-term rates of change is needed to understand the time evolution of ocean warming and to assess the changing ocean and Earth’s energy budgets. Linear trend lines have been frequently used but cannot capture nonlinearity in trends, and have large start- and end-point sensitivity. Based on an analysis of the statistical features of ocean heat content time series, this study proposes two alternative methods to quantify the rates of change, including piecewise linear fit and LOWESS. Robust increases in warming for the upper 2000 m detected through observational records and climate models from 1958 to 2020, indicate a robust acceleration of ocean warming. Slow penetration of heat from the upper ocean into the deeper ocean is also evident.

Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming

Atmospheric ozone has undergone distinct changes in the stratosphere and troposphere during the second half of the twentieth century, with depletion in the stratosphere and an increase in the troposphere. Until now, the effect of these changes on ocean heat uptake has been unclear. Here we show that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes have contributed to Southern Ocean interior warming with the latter being more important. The ozone changes between 1955 and 2000 induced about 30% of the net simulated ocean heat content increase in the upper 2,000 m of the Southern Ocean, with around 60% attributed to tropospheric increases and 40% to stratospheric depletion. Moreover, these two warming contributions show distinct physical mechanisms: tropospheric ozone increases cause a subsurface warming in the Southern Ocean primarily via the deepening of isopycnals, while stratospheric ozone causes depletion via spiciness changes along isopycnals. Our results highlight that tropospheric ozone is more than an air pollutant and, as a greenhouse gas, has been pivotal to the Southern Ocean warming.

Secular change in atmospheric Ar∕N<sub>2</sub> and its implications for ocean heat uptake and Brewer–Dobson circulation

Abstract. Systematic measurements of the atmospheric Ar∕N2 ratio have been made at ground-based stations in Japan and Antarctica since 2012. Clear seasonal cycles of the Ar∕N2 ratio with summertime maxima were found at middle- to high-latitude stations, with seasonal amplitudes increasing with increasing latitude. Eight years of the observed Ar∕N2 ratio at Tsukuba (TKB) and Hateruma (HAT), Japan, showed interannual variations in phase with the observed variations in the global ocean heat content (OHC). We calculated secularly increasing trends of 0.75 ± 0.30 and 0.89 ± 0.60 per meg per year from the Ar∕N2 ratio observed at TKB and HAT, respectively, although these trend values are influenced by large interannual variations. In order to examine the possibility of the secular trend in the surface Ar∕N2 ratio being modified significantly by the gravitational separation in the stratosphere, two-dimensional model simulations were carried out by arbitrarily modifying the mass stream function in the model to simulate either a weakening or an enhancement of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The secular trend of the Ar∕N2 ratio at TKB, corrected for gravitational separation under the assumption of weakening (enhancement) of BDC simulated by the 2-D model, was 0.60 ± 0.30 (0.88 ± 0.30) per meg per year. By using a conversion factor of 3.5 × 10−23 per meg per joule by assuming a one-box ocean with a temperature of 3.5 ∘C, average OHC increase rates of 17.1 ± 8.6 ZJ yr−1 and 25.1 ± 8.6 ZJ yr−1 for the period 2012–2019 were estimated from the corrected secular trends of the Ar∕N2 ratio for the weakened- and enhanced-BDC conditions, respectively. Both OHC increase rates from the uncorrected- and weakened-BDC secular trends of the Ar∕N2 ratio are consistent with 12.2 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 reported by ocean temperature measurements, while that from the enhanced-BDC is outside of the range of the uncertainties. Although the effect of the actual atmospheric circulation on the Ar∕N2 ratio is still unclear and longer-term observations are needed to reduce uncertainty of the secular trend of the surface Ar∕N2 ratio, the analytical results obtained in the present study imply that the surface Ar∕N2 ratio is an important tracer for detecting spatiotemporally integrated changes in OHC and BDC.

Increased cyclone destruction potential in the Southern Indian Ocean

The present study examines the role of the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) warming on the cyclone destruction potential or Power Dissipation Index (PDI) during two contrasting periods of 1980–1998 and 1999–2016. The PDI in the SIO during 1999–2016 is found to have doubled compared to the same during 1980–1998. PDI was computed using the tropical cyclone track data in the SIO region for cyclone category three and above. The increasing trend in PDI during the latter period is primarily due to an increase in the intensity of cyclones and their duration. The increasing PDI is associated with a sea surface temperature warming and an upper ocean heat content increase as well as a significant slowdown in translation speeds. The increase in upper ocean heat content during the recent decades enhances the intensification of cyclones and their duration, which is consistent with the slowdown of cyclones. Analysis of the relevant atmospheric parameters indicates that processes in the atmosphere did not play a major role in the recent decades in increasing cyclone intensity. We show that in the SIO, ocean processes play a major role in the PDI rise during the recent period. Any continued increase in PDI will cause more loss of life and socioeconomic damage to the island countries such as Mozambique, Mauritius, Mascarene Islands and Madagascar, as well as the coastal inhabitants along East Africa.

Sea‐Ice Induced Southern Ocean Subsurface Warming and Surface Cooling in a Warming Climate

AbstractMuch of the Southern Ocean surface south of 55° S cooled and freshened between at least the early 1980s and the early 2010s. Many processes have been proposed to explain the unexpected cooling, including increased winds or freshwater fluxes. However, these mechanisms so far failed to fully explain the surface trends and the concurrent subsurface warming (100 to 500 m). Here, we argue that these trends are predominantly caused by an increased wind‐driven northward sea‐ice transport, enhancing the extraction of freshwater near Antarctica and releasing it in the open ocean. This conclusion is based on factorial experiments with a regional ocean model. In all experiments with an enhanced northward sea‐ice transport, a strengthened salinity‐dominated stratification cools the open‐ocean surface waters between the Subantarctic Front and the sea‐ice edge. The strengthened stratification reduces the downward mixing of cold surface water and the upward heat loss of the warmer waters below, thus warming the subsurface. This sea‐ice induced subsurface warming mostly occurs around West Antarctica, where it likely enhances ice‐shelf melting. Moreover, the subsurface warming could account for about 8 ± 2% of the global ocean heat content increase between 1982 and 2011. Antarctic sea‐ice changes thereby may have contributed to the slowdown of global surface warming over this period. Our conclusions are robust across all considered sensitivity cases, although the trend magnitude is sensitive to forcing uncertainties and the model's mean state. It remains unclear whether these sea‐ice induced changes are associated with natural variability or reflect a response to anthropogenic forcing.

Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °C to 3.1 °C (5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012). We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values. We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Baseline evaluation of the impact of updates to the MIT Earth System Model on its model parameter estimates

Abstract. For over 20 years, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM) has been used extensively for climate change research. The model is under continuous development with components being added and updated. To provide transparency in the model development, we perform a baseline evaluation by comparing model behavior and properties in the newest version to the previous model version. In particular, changes resulting from updates to the land surface model component and the input forcings used in historical simulations of climate change are investigated. We run an 1800-member ensemble of MESM historical climate simulations where the model parameters that set climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing are systematically varied. By comparing model output to observed patterns of surface temperature changes and the linear trend in the increase in ocean heat content, we derive probability distributions for the three model parameters. Furthermore, we run a 372-member ensemble of transient climate simulations where all model forcings are fixed and carbon dioxide concentrations are increased at the rate of 1 % year−1. From these runs, we derive response surfaces for transient climate response and thermosteric sea level rise as a function of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. We show that the probability distributions shift towards higher climate sensitivities and weaker aerosol forcing when using the new model and that the climate response surfaces are relatively unchanged between model versions. Because the response surfaces are independent of the changes to the model forcings and similar between model versions with different land surface models, we suggest that the change in land surface model has limited impact on the temperature evolution in the model. Thus, we attribute the shifts in parameter estimates to the updated model forcings.

Global ocean heat content redistribution during the 1998–2012 Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation negative phase

Previous studies have linked the slowdown in global surface temperature warming during the 1998–2012 period to a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase. Here, we investigate the changes in ocean heat content (OHC) during this period. We compare two ensembles of coupled model experiments with either zero or observed prescribed tropical Pacific wind stress interannual anomalies. This successfully constrains the global surface temperature, sea level pressure and OHC patterns associated with the IPO phase transition around 1998. The negative IPO phase (1998–2012) is associated with a global ocean heat redistribution. The anomalously cold tropical Pacific Ocean leads to an increased oceanic uptake in this region, and a global OHC increase of 4 × 1022 J. The cold equatorial Pacific also forces mid-latitude wind changes through atmospheric teleconnections, leading to an enhanced wind-driven heat transport convergence at 40°N and 40°S. Enhanced Pacific easterlies also yield an enhanced heat transport to the Indian Ocean via the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, the anomalous Pacific heat uptake is entirely exported towards the North Pacific (~ 50%), Indian (~ 30%) and Southern (~ 20%) Oceans. A significant fraction of this heat is released back to the atmosphere in the North Pacific and Indian basins, and transported across 31°S in the Indian Ocean. Overall, OHC increases most in the Southern Ocean (~ 60% of global changes) and northern Pacific (~ 40%), with negligible changes in the Indian and Atlantic basins. These results point to the major importance of oceanic circulation in re-distributing the Pacific heat uptake globally during negative IPO phases.

Influence of sea level variability on a micro-tidal beach

Global climate change in response to buildup of human-induced greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has already resulted in several visible consequences such as an increase in ocean heat content and melting of glaciers. The relative effect of sea level and wave variability on shoreline changes along the coastline of James Town, Ghana (Gulf of Guinea), was investigated between 2013 and 2014. Data were gathered at James Town, over an 8-month period (2013–2014) from nearshore video installation, Era-Interim hindcast, and satellite altimetry. Data were evaluated over daily and monthly timescale variations. Though beach changes are not directly driven by sea level variability, its action is key in modulating waves influence. The results show that the shoreline responds in decreasing order to sea level variations (86%), waves (9%), and tidal cycles (5%) on daily bases. Wind-induced setup has limited effect on the shoreline. The observed most important component of sea level anomaly at this tropical “storm free” coast is the influence from inverse barometer. Decadal observations from satellite show that sea level anomaly is continuously rising in the Gulf of Guinea subregion with expected strong consequence for this urbanized low lying sandy coast.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300–700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

A paleo-perspective on ocean heat content: Lessons from the Holocene and Common Era

Abstract The ocean constitutes the largest heat reservoir in the Earth's energy budget and thus exerts a major influence on its climate. Instrumental observations show an increase in ocean heat content (OHC) associated with the increase in greenhouse emissions. Here we review proxy records of intermediate water temperatures from sediment cores and corals in the equatorial Pacific and northeastern Atlantic Oceans, spanning 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. These records suggests that intermediate waters were 1.5–2 °C warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than in the last century. Intermediate water masses cooled by 0.9 °C from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age. These changes are significantly larger than the temperature anomalies documented in the instrumental record. The implied large perturbations in OHC and Earth's energy budget are at odds with very small radiative forcing anomalies throughout the Holocene and Common Era. We suggest that even very small radiative perturbations can change the latitudinal temperature gradient and strongly affect prevailing atmospheric wind systems and hence air-sea heat exchange. These dynamic processes provide an efficient mechanism to amplify small changes in insolation into relatively large changes in OHC. Over long time periods the ocean's interior acts like a capacitor and builds up large (positive and negative) heat anomalies that can mitigate or amplify small radiative perturbations as seen in the Holocene trend and Common Era anomalies, respectively. Evidently the ocean's interior is more sensitive to small external forcings than the global surface ocean because of the high sensitivity of heat exchange in the high-latitudes to climate variations.

An east‐west contrast of upper ocean heat content variation south of the subpolar front in the East/Japan Sea

AbstractLong‐term variability of nonseasonal ocean heat content (OHC) in the upper 500 m in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) exhibits a distinct east‐west contrast during the recent 30 years. The contrasting OHC variations are revisited and investigated more in detail by analyzing two observational data sets, the gridded data from 1976 to 2007 and in situ data from 1976 to 2011 in the southwestern EJS that covers the zone of western boundary current. The OHC variability shows in‐phase and predominant decadal variation in both east and west regions before 1995, but uncorrelated and predominant interannual variations after 1995. Heaving effects due to major branches of warm currents in the EJS, the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) in the western part and other two branches in the eastern part, mainly contribute to the OHC variations. The heaving effect in the western EJS is shown to be associated with changes in winter wind‐stress curl field in the northern EJS. Weakening of the subpolar gyre due to weakening of positive wind‐stress curl in the Japan Basin related with wintertime Western Pacific teleconnection pattern and Siberian High appears to enhance the northward penetration of the EKWC resulting in an increase of OHC in the western EJS. The heaving effect in the eastern EJS is significantly correlated with the Siberian High, but the causative mechanism is inconclusive. This study also demonstrates the importance of using highly resolved data sets for areas affected by strong and narrow boundary currents in computing and understanding the OHC variability.

On the Energy Exchange between Tropical Ocean Basins Related to ENSO*

Abstract Vast amounts of energy are exchanged between the ocean, atmosphere, and space in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study examines energy budgets of all tropical (30°S–30°N) ocean basins and the atmosphere separately using different, largely independent oceanic and atmospheric reanalyses to depict anomalous energy flows associated with ENSO in a consistent framework. It is found that variability of area-averaged ocean heat content (OHC) in the tropical Pacific to a large extent is modulated by energy flow through the ocean surface. While redistribution of OHC within the tropical Pacific is an integral part of ENSO dynamics, variability of ocean heat transport out of the tropical Pacific region is found to be mostly small. Noteworthy contributions arise from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which is anticorrelated with ENSO at a few months lag, and from anomalous oceanic poleward heat export during the La Niña events in 1999 and 2008. Regression analysis reveals that atmospheric energy transport and radiation at the top of the atmosphere (RadTOA) almost perfectly balance the OHC changes and ITF variability associated with ENSO. Only a small fraction of El Niño–related heat lost by the Pacific Ocean through anomalous air–sea fluxes is radiated to space immediately, whereas the major part of the energy is transported away by the atmosphere. Ample changes in tropical atmospheric circulation lead to enhanced surface fluxes and, consequently, to an increase of OHC in the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean that almost fully compensates for tropical Pacific OHC loss. This signature of energy redistribution is robust across the employed datasets for all three tropical ocean basins and explains the small ENSO signal in global mean RadTOA.