Increase In Natural Gas Prices Research Articles

Minimization of operational cost for an off-grid renewable hybrid system to generate electricity in residential buildings through the SVM and the BCGA methods

Abstract Recently Turkey's electricity demand has shown a considerable increase due to its population and economic growths. It is understandable that this may be very influential on electricity price on market as well as other factors such as an increase in natural gas price, etc. It should be noted that the half of Turkey's electricity generation is supplied from natural gas and 95% of this source is imported from other countries. However, Turkey is rich in wind and solar energy potentials to generate electricity and it is believed that this makes a considerable impact on reducing high electricity unit cost to competitive one. In this regard, these potentials can be utilized for electricity generation in order to meet a significant portion of the power demanded by residential houses through a PV/wind system. The electricity cost of the renewable system can be minimized by optimally scheduling generated and consumed powers. In this paper, optimal power scheduling in such systems is carried out by using the BCGA and the SVM methods. The results indicated that the proposed approach was able to minimize the operation cost in the hybrid system through the optimal power scheduling.

Centralizuoto šilumos tiekimo sistemos reformavimo prielaidos Lietuvoje

The paper analyses Lithuanian crisis situation in district heating because of the increase in natural gas price. Furthermore, EU policy impact on district heating prospects in Lithuania and the importance of heat supply infrastructure for the use of renewable energy technologies are analysed.

Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries

This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns.

A decision support model for combined heat and power economic evaluation

Many European states support Combined Heat and Power (CHP) investments and provide better selling tariffs for the electricity produced. In this paper, a model was developed that can help energy planning and decision-making for CHP investments in an unstable energy market. The model uses as variables state subsidies, natural gas and electricity selling price. Five different scenarios from Greek economic reality had been used in order to evaluate their economic viability and the investment risk. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out, having as variables the natural gas price and the State subsidy. The sensitivity analysis of the natural gas price showed that although profits decrease as natural gas price increases, the investment remains viable for almost twice the current natural gas price. This means that small fluctuations of natural gas price do not affect the investment to a crucial degree.

How is demand for natural gas determined across European industrial sectors?

This paper estimates the response of manufacturing sectors’ natural gas demand to price and output changes. The average response to future changes in absolute and relative prices of the manufacturing industry in an OECD country depends on the mix of manufacturing industries, particularly with respect to energy intensity and substitution opportunities in production. We estimate short and long run demand elasticities using a shrinkage estimator, which allows heterogeneous demand responses across industries for each country. Our results show that price and output elasticities are heterogeneous within the same manufacturing sector across countries. Furthermore, an output contraction due to e.g. demand shocks will generally have larger negative effects on gas demand than increases in natural gas prices.

Estimating Regional Short-Run and Long-Run Price Elasticities of Residential Natural Gas Demand in the U.S.

Demand for natural gas use per residential customer has been declining since the 1980’s. Between 1980 and 2001, weather adjusted natural gas use per consumer in the US declined almost 1 percent on an annual basis. Since 2000 the decline for winter only use has accelerated, decreasing 13.1 percent between 2000 and 2006 for the companies analyzed in this paper. To help Local Distribution Companies and Public Service Commissions predict future declines in use per customer natural gas demand, we estimate the price elasticity of natural gas demand by residential households using a sample of data that covers the recent period of large natural gas price increases. We find that the price elasticity of residential natural gas demand has been constant since the 1990s. We also estimate a 1% decline in use per customer induced by the natural turnover of old equipment that is independent of natural gas price increases.

Techno-Economic Assessment of Biohydrogen Production from Forest Biomass in Western Canada

Western Canada is the largest hydrocarbon base in Canada. Oil sands, one of its key crude oil resources, are used for production of bitumen, which is further processed to produce crude oil. Bitumen is upgraded before it is sent to the refinery. The upgrading of bitumen requires hydrogen, most of which is currently produced from natural gas. The recent increase in natural gas prices has made it desirable to obtain hydrogen from other sources. Biomass-based fuels are currently receiving much attention, as these fuels are considered carbon neutral and renewable. Hydrogen (biohydrogen) can be produced from biomass using thermo-chemical processes. Western Canada's potential for forest biomass is large. This article explores the option of producing hydrogen for bitumen upgrading from the forest biomass in western Canada. The production of biohydrogen by thermal gasification of whole-tree forest biomass by a stand-alone 2000 dry tonnes per day plant costs $1.18/kg of H2 (or $9.83/GJ of H2). Capital and operating costs contribute 32% and 26% of the total cost of production, respectively, whereas feedstock delivery cost contributes about 36%. The total cost of delivering biohydrogen by pipeline to a bitumen upgrader located 500 km away from the production plant is $2.20/kg of H2 (or $18.32/GJ of H2). The current cost of delivered biohydrogen is not competitive with natural gas based hydrogen; it can become competitive only with a long-term natural gas cost of about $12/GJ. Carbon credits can make biohydrogen competitive. At a natural gas cost of $5/GJ, the carbon credit required to make biohydrogen competitive with natural gas based hydrogen is about $140 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. The economic optimum size (the size at which the cost of production is minimal) for a biohydrogen plant using whole-tree biomass is more than 5000 dry tonnes per day, but a smaller plant could be built to reduce the risk and minimize the capital cost penalty. Most of the economies of scale are exploited by 2000 dry tonnes per day.

A Study of Options for the Deployment of Large Fusion Power Plants

One option for making fusion power plants that could be competitive with other power plants operating during the 21st century is to make them large, e.g., 3 GW(electric) or more, to take advantage of the expected economies of scale. This study examines the effects on electrical utility system hardware, operations, and reliability of incorporating such large generating units. In addition, the study evaluates the use of the coproduction of hydrogen to reduce the grid-supplied electricity and offer the possibility for electrical load-following.The estimated additional cost of electricity (COE) for a large power plant is ~5 mills/kW⋅h. The estimated total COE for 3- to 4-GW(electric) fusion power plants lies in the range of 37 to 60 mills/kW⋅h.Future hydrogen costs from a variety of sources are estimated to lie in the range of 8 to 10 $/GJ, when allowance is made for some increase in natural gas price and for the possible need for greenhouse gas emission limitations.A number of combinations of fusion plant and electrolyzer were considered, including hot electrolyzers that use heat from the fusion plant. For the optimum cases, hydrogen produced from off-peak power from a 3- to 4-GW(electric) plant is estimated to have a competitive cost. Of particular interest, the cost would also be competitive if some hydrogen were produced during on-peak electricity cost periods. Thus, for a 4-GW(electric) plant, only up to 3 GW(electric) might be supplied to the grid, and load-following would be possible, which would be a benefit to the utility system.

Natural gas deregulation in the United States: How will it affect agriculture?

This paper examines the implications of three policies of federal deregulation of natural gas prices on the macroeconomy, fertilizer prices, and agriculture for the 1983–1990 period. The three policies are in phase-in of price decontrol (modified NGPA), 2-year freeze on gas prices (price freeze) and accelerated decontrol of wellhead gas prices (early decontrol). Gas price increases affect domestic ammonia producers by raising the cost of producing ammonia. However, even relatively large gas price increases have only a small impact on fertilizer prices and the costs of agricultural production because only an estimated 20% of the increase in natural gas prices is passed through to fertilizer prices, assuming no restrictions on fertilizer imports.

Natural gas deregulation and U.S. ammonia production

Natural gas price deregulation in the United States as scheduled under the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 will likely increase domestic industrial natural gas prices by 1985. This increase in natural gas prices will substantially reduce producers' surplus of domestic ammonia producers by raising costs of production at a time of increasing imports and declining growth in ammonia demand. Potential plants exits and changes in producers' surplus and domestic production and prices of ammonia are analyzed under alternative ammonia demand, import, and natural gas pricing assumptions.

The Impact of Higher Energy Prices in Canada

Since the energy crisis of 1973-74, the Canadian government has followed a policy of shielding the household and business sectors from the full impact of world energy prices through a system of subsidies on oil imports financed by indirect taxes on exports and gasoline consumption. Western provinces have enjoyed a rapid accumulation of revenues related to royalites, investments and generally buoyant activity. Through the careful manipulation of the levers of an econometric model of Canada, a picture of the consequences of an increase of domestic energy prices to US levels can be traced through to such key measures as the Consumer Price Index, the Unemployment Rate, Real Gross National Product and Employment. In this paper annual increases in crude oil prices of $20.00 a barrel and equivalent increases in natural gas prices are imposed on a base case projection from 1981 to 1986, and the impacts on the Canadian economy are assessed.

Implication of Improved Irrigation Pumping Efficiency for Farmer Profit and Energy Use

Irrigated crop production on the Texas High Plains accounts for more than 80 percent of the value of total crop production in the region. Total economic activity associated with crop production was estimated to be $2.18 billion in 1967 [11]. Because of the importance and contribution of irrigation to the regional economy, any significant adjustments in irrigation create repercussions throughout the region.The price of natural gas within Texas is not subject to interstate regulations. Since 1973, dramatic increases in natural gas price (from $0.50 to more than $2.00/mcf) in the state have caused considerable concern about the economic feasibility of continued irrigation. Research was conducted to estimate the effect of continuing natural gas price increases on irrigation [8].