Increase In Maximum Daily Temperature Research Articles

Renal, cardiovascular, and respiratory outcomes associated with climate change

PurposeEnvironmental exposure such as declining air quality and increasing temperatures can exert detrimental effects on human health, including acute exacerbations of chronic diseases. We aim to investigate the association between these exposures and acute health outcomes in a rural Colorado community. MethodsMeteorological and adult emergency department (ED) visit data were retrospectively collected (2013–2017). Daily environmental exposure data included PM10, maximum daily temperature (MDT), and mean humidity and precipitation. Total daily counts of ED diagnoses for myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, urolithiasis, and exacerbation of COPD and asthma, were calculated during the study period. Time series models using generalized estimating equations were fit for each disease and included all four environmental factors. ResultsBetween 2013 and 2017, asthma and COPD exacerbation accounted for 30.8% and 25.4% of all ED visits (n = 5113), respectively. We found that for every 5°C increase in MDT, the rate of urolithiasis visits increased by 13% (95% CI: 2%, 26%) and for every 10 μg/m3 increase in 3-day moving average PM10, the rate of urolithiasis visits increased by 7% (95% CI: 1%, 13%). The magnitude of association between 3-day moving average PM10 and rate of urolithiasis visits increased with increasing MDT. Associations between climate and other health outcomes were not statistically significant. ConclusionsThis retrospective study on ED visits is one of the first to investigate the impact of several environmental exposures on adverse health outcomes in a rural community. Research into mitigating the negative impacts of these environmental exposures on health outcomes is needed.

Exacerbation of Renal, Cardiovascular, and Respiratory Outcomes Associated with Changes in Climate.

Exposure to environmental variables including declining air quality and increasing temperatures can exert detrimental effects on human health including acute exacerbations of chronic diseases. We aim to investigate the association between these exposures and acute health outcomes in a rural community in Colorado. Meteorological and adult emergency department visit data were retrospectively collected (2013-2017); for asthma outcomes, additional data were available (2003-2017). Daily environmental exposure data included PM10, maximum daily temperature (MDT), and mean humidity and precipitation. Total daily counts of emergency department (ED) diagnoses for myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, urolithiasis, and exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, were calculated during the study period. Time series models using generalized estimating equations were fit for each disease and included all four environmental factors. Between 2013 and 2017, asthma and COPD exacerbation accounted for 30.8% and 25.4% of all ED visits (n=5,113), respectively. We found that for every 5˚C increase in MDT, the rate of urolithiasis visits increased by 13% (95% CI: 2%, 26%) and for every 10μg/m3 increase in 3-day moving average PM10, the rate of urolithiasis visits increased by 7% (95% CI: 1%, 13%). The magnitude of association between 3-day moving average PM10 and rate of urolithiasis visits increased with increasing MDT. The rate of asthma exacerbation significantly increased as 3-day, 7-day, and 21-day moving average PM10 increased. This retrospective study on ED visits is one of the first to investigate the impact of several environmental exposures on adverse health outcomes in a rural community. Research into mitigating the negative impacts of these environmental exposures on health outcomes is needed.

Predicting the periodic risk of anthrax in livestock in Victoria, Australia, using meteorological data.

Cases of anthrax in livestock are infrequently and irregularly reported in the state of Victoria, Australia; however, their impact on individual livestock, farming communities and the government agencies tasked with containing these outbreaks is high. This infrequency has been anecdotally associated with differences in annual and local weather patterns. In this study, we used historical anthrax cases and meteorological data from weather stations throughout Victoria to train a generalized linear mixed effects model to predict the daily odds of a case of anthrax occurring in each shire in the coming 30days. Meteorological variables were transformed to deviations from the mean values for temperature or cumulative values for rainfall in the shire across all years. Shire was incorporated as a random effect to account for meteorological variation between shires. The model incorporated a post hoc weighting for the frequency of historic cases within each shire and the spatial contribution of each shire to the recently redefined Australian Anthrax Belt. Our model reveals that anthrax cases were associated with drier summer conditions (OR 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.97) and OR 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99) for every mm increase in rainfall during September and December, respectively) and cooler than average spring (OR 0.20 (95% CI 0.11-0.52) for every °C increase in minimum daily temperature during November and warmer than average summer temperatures (OR 1.45 (95% CI 1.29-1.61) for every °C increase in maximum daily temperature during January. Cases were also preceded by a 40-day period of cooler, drier temperatures (OR 0.5 (95% CI 0.27-0.74) for every °C increase in maximum daily temperature and OR 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.97) for every mm increase in rainfall followed by a warmer than average minimum (or nightly) temperature 10days immediately before the case (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.35-1.58) for every °C increase in maximum daily temperature). These coefficients of this training model were then applied daily to meteorological data for each shire, and output of these models was presented as a choropleth and timeline plot in a Shiny web application. The application builds on previous spatial modelling and provides Victorian agencies with a tool to engage at-risk farmers and guide discussions towards anthrax control. This application can contribute to the wider rejuvenation of anthrax knowledge and control in Victoria and corroborates the anecdote that increased odds of disease can be linked to meteorological events.

Environmental Factors Predictive of No-Show Visits in Radiology: Observations of Three Million Outpatient Imaging Visits Over 16 Years

PurposeTo evaluate the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on outpatient cancellations and “no-show visits” (NSVs) in radiology. Materials and MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis by collecting environmental factor data related to outpatient radiology visits occurring between 2000 and 2015 at our multihospital academic institution. Appointment attendance records were joined with daily weather observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and estimated median income from the US Census American Community Survey. A multivariate logistic regression model was built to examine relationships between NSV rate and median income, commute distance, maximum daily temperature, and daily snowfall. ResultsThere were 270,574 (8.0%) cancellations and 87,407 (2.6%) NSVs among 3,379,947 scheduled outpatient radiology appointments and 575,206 unique patients from 2000 to 2015. Overall cancellation rates decreased from 14% to 8%, and NSV rates decreased from 6% to 1% as median income increased from $20,000 to $120,000 per year. In a multivariate model, the odds of NSV decreased 10.7% per $10,000 increase in median income (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.3%-11.1%) and 2.0% per 10°F increase in maximum daily temperature (95% CI: 1.3%-1.6%). The odds of NSV increased 1.4% per 10-mile increase in commute distance (95% CI: 1.3%-1.6%) and 4.5% per 1-inch increase in daily snowfall (95% CI: 3.6%-5.3%). Commute distance was more strongly associated with NSV for those in the two lower tertiles of income than the highest tertile (P < .001). ConclusionEnvironmental factors are strongly associated with patients’ attendance at scheduled outpatient radiology examinations. Modeling of appointment failure risk based on environmental features can help increase the attendance of outpatient radiology appointments.

Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island.

Background:Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures.Objectives:We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island.Methods:We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046–2053 and 2092–2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5.Results:Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092–2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6–1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9–41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8–2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October.Conclusions:With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected.Citation:Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460–467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island

BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to cause higher heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. METHODS: We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046-2053 and 2092-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those aged CONCLUSIONS: All other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Language: en

Rainy Day Reaction: Human West Nile Viruses Cases Respond to Weather Patterns

Piecemeal evidence suggests weather may have played a role in the rapid spread of West Nile virus (WNV) across the United States and into Canada and Central America following its detection in New York City in 1999. A team of U.S. and Canadian researchers has looked more comprehensively at the evidence by analyzing a spectrum of weather factors for 17 climatically diverse states, and found several significant links with the incidence of human WNV cases [EHP 117:1049–1052; Soverow et al.]. The analysis was based on 16,298 WNV cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2005, as well as year-round temperature, precipitation, and dew point data from 351 weather stations in close proximity to the infected people. A 12°F increase in maximum daily temperature was associated with a 45–72% increase in WNV case reports within a 1-month period. Precipitation was also associated with WNV, which increased 29–66% in association with a single-day rainfall of at least 50 mm within 3 weeks of diagnosis. Smaller amounts of precipitation were associated with smaller increases in WNV cases, consistent with a dose–response effect. Increases in cumulative weekly precipitation and mean weekly dew point temperature (a measure of relative humidity) were also associated with an increase in WNV cases. The findings, which hold up across season and location, generally mesh with what is known about the biology of WNV, humans, mosquito vectors, and bird reservoir hosts. The authors write that additional research will be needed to address some limitations of their work—notably gaps in data from a number of geographic regions and the influence of localized interactions of factors such as bird populations, vegetation, mosquito control efforts, and acquired immunity in both humans and animals. If these weather–disease links are confirmed, and if climate changes in North America unfold as predicted with increases in temperature and precipitation, public health officials may be better able to prevent or mitigate outbreaks in the future.

Effect of temperature on mortality during the six warmer months in Sydney, Australia, between 1993 and 2004

Studies of heat-related mortality have been predominantly based on analyses of underlying cause of death as the single indicator of a population's vulnerability to high temperatures. Examination of both underlying and associated causes of death could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the population at risk. This study analyzes the impact of high temperatures on mortality in Sydney, Australia, during the warmer six months (October–March) between 1993 and 2004, using the underlying and associated cause of death due to all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease. Some mortality datasets were also divided into two age groups, 0–64 and 65+. A generalized linear model assuming negative binomial distribution was constructed for the daily mortality counts using daily maximum temperature and hourly maximum concentrations of ozone (O 3) and particulate matter (PM 10) as covariates. With the air pollution terms in a model, the change in mortality was estimated to be between 4.5% and 12.1% for a 10 °C increase in maximum daily temperature, depending on mortality dataset. When air pollutants were removed from a model, the above mortality percentages changed by −1.1% to 0.9%. When both underlying and associated causes of death were considered, the effect remained the same or became lower. Maximum temperature has been found to have a significant effect on mortality in Sydney, with PM 10 and O 3 confounding the association.

Estimating water consumption and factors affecting intake in grazing cattle

Water consumption (WC) by 39.5 animal units (AU) of grazing cattle was studied at a central Alberta site in summer. Average WC AU−1 was estimated at 48.9 L d−1. WC increased by 0.68 L AU−1 (P &lt; 0.01) for each percentage decrease in relative humidity, increased by 0.81 L AU−1 (P &lt; 0.02) for each degree Celsius increase in maximum daily temperature, and increased by 0.15 L AU−1 (P &lt; 0.06) as cattle grew and the season progressed. Relative humidity is shown to be an important determinant of WC in grazing cattle. Key words: Water consumption, animal unit, temperature, humidity, grazing cattle

Determining Optimum Fluoride Concentrations

T HE FLUID intake study amnong children in Antioch and Brentwood, Calif., in 1953-54 provides a basis for determining the optimum fluoride concentration in water supplies in relation to environmental This study showed that for every degree increase in maximum daily temperature between 50? and 1000 F. water intake increased, on the average, by 0.062 per pound of body weight. For example, the average daily water consumption per pound of body weight was 0.272 when the maximum daily temperature was 50' F. and 0.334 when the maximum daily temperature was 600 F. The relationship between maximum temperature and water intake for the California children was described by the estimation equation ounces of water per pound of body weight= -0.038 + 0.0062 temperature. The validity of this equation should perhaps be checked by studies in other areas of the country, but in the meantime it can be used to illustrate the calculation of optimum fluoride concentrations. As will be pointed out later in the paper, results obtained with the equation in the Chicago area, where optimum fluoride concentration is known from epidemiological studies, indicate that it is reasonably reliable. The basic structure of the formula developed for estimating optimum fluoride concentrations is: parts per million of fluoride= optimum water consumption -. estimated water consumption. Thus, the optimum fluoride concentration for a given community is equal to a constant (the average amount of water containing 1 p.p.m. fluoride that affords optimum protection against dental caries) divided by the estimated water consumption of children in a given community. Both measures are in of water consumed daily per pound of body weight. If daily maximum temperature data for the Chicago area are applied to the water estimation equation, it is possible to calculate a denominator value for the formula, that is, the average amount of water that would be consumed daily per pound of body weight by children in the Chicago area aged 10 years or less. The number derived, although it has no particular meaning in itself, may also serve as the constant for the formula, since it is known from epidemiological data that the optimum fluoride concentration for the Chicago area is 1 p.p.m. The constant, or numerator, in the formula must equal the estimated water consumption, or denominator, for the optimum fluoride concentration to be 1 p.p.m. The estimated water consumption for the Chicago area children is based on weather data for two towns, Maywood and Joliet. Since both of these towns were included in the early studies of Dean (1), the fluoride concentration