Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

Patrícia Silva,Carlos C Dacamara,Renata Libonati,Ana Bastos

doi:10.1590/0102-778631320150142

Abstract

Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

Highlights

Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system, influencing global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure
The aim of the present study is to assess the sensitivity of meteorological fire danger in Brazilian savannas and shrublands to changes in climate variables during the 21st Century, using an index of meteorological fire danger suited for the regional fire regime
We focus on the future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, which corresponds to a medium mitigation scenario covering the period 2005-2100 (IPCC, 2013)

Summary

Introduction

Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system, influencing global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure. Fire has impacts at the climatological, ecological, social and economic levels, such as those related to changes in the planetary albedo and the global radiative budget, modifications in vegetation condition, degradation potential of the soil and landscape value, damages to endangered species and adverse health effects of smoke haze (DaCamara et al, 2014). In this context, Brazil is a key region, being one of the global areas most affected by fire (Bowman et al, 2009). Several studies based on models and observations highlighted South America as vulnerable to climate change and have shown that semi-arid regions are an increasingly important driver of inter-annual variability in the carbon cycle, making the study of their future vulnerability to fire occurrence relevant (Hoffmann et al, 2002; Magrin et al, 2007; Poulter et al, 2014)

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Results

Conclusion