Increase In Gas Prices Research Articles

Investigation of the Asymmetric Causality Relationship of Global Risks and Uncertainties on Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Prices

This study examines the relationship between VIX Volatility Index, Geopolitical Risk and Natural Gas, Brent Oil and Green Energy between December 2016 and October 2022 with Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality analysis. Variables were tested based on monthly data and using the analysis model. The obtained findings were examined by applying binary tests with the independent variables GPR and VIX index and the dependent variables GAS, BRENT and GREEN. While GPR and VIX index and GAS showed significance at the level of 1%, no significant relationship was found with BRENT. While GREEN did not have a significant relationship with GPR, it was found to be significant at the 5% level with the VIX index. When there was a positive increase in the GPR and VIX index, it was seen that the increase in GAS prices was positive. However, the same is not true for BRENT oil prices.

Energy Security of the European Union in the Context of Russian Aggression against Ukraine

Over the past decades, Russia has used the supply, ownership and control of energy resources as an instrument of its foreign policy to strengthen its political influence not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in the EU member states. During the unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine, Moscow used energy policy as an energy weapon (demanding to pay for gas in rubles; stopping gas supplies to certain EU member states, including Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland; reducing the volume of supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline; ignoring the capacities of the Ukrainian GTS; provoking an increase in gas prices), which resulted in an acute energy crisis in the European Union. This prompted the EU and national governments of its member states to make significant adjustments to their energy policies in order to overcome the crisis and prevent gas blackmail by European states as a manipulation to circumvent anti-Russian sanctions and political pressure to withdraw support for Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to study the problems of ensuring the energy security of the European Union and its member states in the context of the energy crisis caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The article is aimed at studying the impact of Russian aggression on the EU's energy security, assessing the state of the Energy Union in 2022, and analyzing short-term and long-term strategies in the development of relevant supranational and national energy policies, mainly from a European perspective. Modern European national and supranational energy and climate strategies envisage postponing the phase-out of coal, oil, gas and nuclear power, while accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and a mandatory commitment to increase energy storage. The European Union and its member states are overcoming the consequences of the energy crisis by developing and implementing national strategies, the REPowerEU plan, as well as a number of other measures to reduce energy prices and ensure security of supply. The REPowerEU plan is fully in line with the European Green Deal and includes measures to save energy, diversify and ensure security of supply, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources and a reasonable mix of investment and reform. The modernization of the EU's energy policy is aligned with the EU's long-term climate goals. The EU also supports new partnerships with neighboring countries, including Ukraine, to accelerate the global transition to green and fair energy.

The impact of the energy crisis on the UK’s net-zero transition

Recent drastic increases in natural gas prices have brought into sharp focus the inherent tensions between net-zero transitions, energy security, and affordability. We investigate the impact of different fuel prices on the energy system transition, explicitly accounting for the increasingly coupled power and heating sectors, and also incorporate the emerging hydrogen sector. The aim is to identify low-regret decisions and optimal energy system transitions for different fuel prices. We observe that the evolution of the heating sector is highly sensitive to gas price, whereas the composition of the power sector is not qualitatively impacted by gas prices. We also observe that bioenergy plays an important role in the energy system transition, and the balance between gas prices and biomass prices determines the optimal technology portfolios. The future evolution of the prices of these two resources is highly uncertain, and future energy systems must be resilient to these uncertainties.

Fluctuations of Natural Gas Prices for Households in the 2017–2022 Period—Polish Case Study

The considerable share of natural gas in the aggregated gross available energy clearly indicates the resource’s importance for the energy security of EU states. Natural gas shortages caused by energy crises result in the resource’s price increases in foreign markets. The condition of the global energy system translates directly to the prices of natural gas for households. The main research objectives were the analysis of prices of household natural gas in the EU, and identification of key factors affecting the prices of household natural gas in Poland and their effect on the prices established in domestic tariffs. The secondary data analysis method (desk research) was used in the research. The 2017–2022 data were acquired from Eurostat, the Polish distributor’s (PGNiG SA) tariffs, the Energy Regulatory Office and exchange information. The paper fills a research gap in the disparity of prices of natural gas supplied to final individual recipients in the EU. It was established that the sudden increases in natural gas purchase prices on energy resource exchanges translated into a similarly dynamic increase in the household gas fuel prices. The price data concerning Poland were compared to analogous data from other EU member states. It was established that in the period between the first half of 2021 and the first half of 2022, gas prices in the EU increased by over 34% on average (maximum of 150%). It was concluded that the household natural gas prices in Poland, established in the officially approved distribution tariffs of PGNiG SA, are substantially affected by two factors: energy resource purchase prices on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE), and purchase prices on foreign markets. The main reason for price increases was the unforeseen substantial changes in the conditions of conducting business activity by PGNiG SA in terms of gas fuel trading, resulting from the increase in high-methane natural gas purchase price at the TGE. On the other hand, the increases in purchase price of natural gas imported from EU or EFTA member states by 2021 have moderately translated into increases in prices established in officially approved tariffs. A similar effect of household natural gas price increase has also occurred in other EU member states but was not uniform. The effect depended on the volume of gas production and consumption in the given country, and on the diversity of gas sources that determined the resource’s purchase price.

The price of natural gas dependency: Price shocks, inequality, and public policy

The 2022 natural gas price spikes across Europe raised concerns regarding their distributional consequences. This paper investigates the distributional effect of price increases between and, in particular, within different income groups in Germany, accounting for different determinants of gas expenditures. The study finds that low-income households are affected the most by the gas price increase. Low-income households pay, at the median, 11.70 percent of their equivalent income for natural gas, while high-income households pay, at the median, 2.41 percent. Moreover, natural gas expenditures are higher for tenants in detached houses and in houses without double glazing or thermal insulation. Our policy analysis shows that a well-targeted subsidy scheme can be more effective at reducing inequality and less costly than a subsidy for all households. Additionally, the introduction of a minimum energy efficiency standard for buildings can help reduce inequality in the medium term.

Decentral Production of Green Hydrogen for Energy Systems: An Economically and Environmentally Viable Solution for Surplus Self-Generated Energy in Manufacturing Companies?

Power-to-X processes where renewable energy is converted into storable liquids or gases are considered to be one of the key approaches for decarbonizing energy systems and compensating for the volatility involved in generating electricity from renewable sources. In this context, the production of “green” hydrogen and hydrogen-based derivatives is being discussed and tested as a possible solution for the energy-intensive industry sector in particular. Given the sharp, ongoing increases in electricity and gas prices and the need for sustainable energy supplies in production systems, non-energy-intensive companies should also be taken into account when considering possible utilization paths for hydrogen. This work focuses on the following three utilization paths: “hydrogen as an energy storage system that can be reconverted into electricity”, “hydrogen mobility” for company vehicles and “direct hydrogen use”. These three paths are developed, modeled, simulated, and subsequently evaluated in terms of economic and environmental viability. Different photovoltaic system configurations are set up for the tests with nominal power ratings ranging from 300 kWp to 1000 kWp. Each system is assigned an electrolyzer with a power output ranging between 200 kW and 700 kW and a fuel cell with a power output ranging between 5 kW and 75 kW. There are also additional variations in relation to the battery storage systems within these basic configurations. Furthermore, a reference variant without battery storage and hydrogen technologies is simulated for each photovoltaic system size. This means that there are ultimately 16 variants to be simulated for each utilization path. The results show that these utilization paths already constitute a reasonable alternative to fossil fuels in terms of costs in variants with a suitable energy system design. For the “hydrogen as an energy storage system” path, electricity production costs of between 43 and 79 ct/kWh can be achieved with the 750 kWp photovoltaic system. The “hydrogen mobility” is associated with costs of 12 to 15 ct/km, while the “direct hydrogen use” path resulted in costs of 8.2 €/kg. Environmental benefits are achieved in all three paths by replacing the German electricity mix with renewable energy sources produced on site or by substituting hydrogen for fossil fuels. The results confirm that using hydrogen as a storage medium in manufacturing companies could be economically and environmentally viable. These results also form the basis for further studies, e.g., on detailed operating strategies for hydrogen technologies in scenarios involving a combination of multiple utilization paths. The work also presents the simulation-based method developed in this project, which can be transferred to comparable applications in further studies.

Which approaches to climate policy decrease carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from US states, 1997–2017

Effective policies are needed to reduce fossil fuel use, but scholars disagree about which policy approach is most effective at decreasing fossil fuel use: renewable energy subsidies, energy substitution requirements, energy efficiency requirements, or carbon pricing. In this paper, I use fixed effect panel models to estimate the effect of ten different state-level climate policies, which each take one of these four approaches, on US states' energy-related CO2 emissions. I use these results to determine which policy approaches have been more effective at reducing fossil fuel use up until the present. I find that cap and trade implementation and my control for gas price increases are most consistently associated with emission reductions, and they generally reduce emissions more than the other tested policies. These findings suggest that carbon pricing has been more effective than the other policy approaches at reducing fossil fuel use.

The impact of energy shortages on health and healthcare in Europe.

The impact of energy shortages on health and healthcare in Europe.

Algeria’s cautious return to the world stage

The sharp increase in gas prices and France’s withdrawal from Mali have boosted Algeria’s international profile. As Algeria returns cautiously to the world stage, the French and Algerian presidents are engaging in a serious strategic conversation. This dialogue is however complicated by France’s reluctance to address the question of contamination from nuclear tests carried out in the Sahara in the 1960s. The French military exit from Mali has seen regional countries – rather than the United States and France – taking the lead on enhancing security in the Sahel under the auspices of the Comité d’Etat Major Opérationnel Conjoint (CEMOC), which groups the army chiefs of Algeria, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Even so, Algeria is unlikely to be able to fully capitalise on France’s departure and regain the influence, indeed the swagger, it enjoyed internationally in the 1970s and 80s. The reason: Algeria’s failure to enact bold economic reforms, depriving the country of a much more vibrant economy.

Analysis of Power to Gas Technologies for Energy Intensive Industries in European Union

Energy Intensive Industries (EII) are high users of energy and some of these facilities are extremely dependent on Natural Gas for processing heat production. In European countries, where Natural Gas is mostly imported from external producers, the increase in international Natural Gas prices is making it difficult for some industries to deliver the required financial results. Therefore, they are facing complex challenges that could cause their delocalization in regions with lower energy costs. European countries lack on-site Natural Gas resources and the plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector make it necessary to find an alternative. Many different processes cannot be electrified, and in these cases, synthetic methane is one of the solutions and also represents an opportunity to reduce external energy supply dependency. This study analyzes the current development of power-to-gas technological solutions that could be implemented in large industrial consumers to produce Synthetic Methane using Green Hydrogen as a raw source and using Renewable Energy electricity mainly produced with photovoltaic or wind energy. The study also reviews the triple bottom line impact and the current development status and associated costs for each key component of a power-to-gas plant and the requirements to be fulfilled in the coming years to develop a cost-competitive solution available for commercial use.

Clean heating and air pollution: Evidence from Northern China

In response to the severe air pollution caused by winter heating, the Chinese government has proposed a clean heating policy since 2017. This paper first uses air quality monitoring and household micro-survey data in northern cities to investigate the impact of this policy on air pollution through the DID approach. The empirical results show that the air quality index of the pilot cities has decreased by 12.3 units, which means that the clean heating policy has significantly reduced air pollution. The finding still holds through a series of robustness analyses such as controlling for confounding policies and Goodman-Bacon decomposition. Besides, we explore the mechanism at the urban and household levels. It shows that this policy has significantly increased the consumption of natural gas and the number of natural gas users in urban central heating and also prompted more households to use natural gas and electricity instead of solar energy to replace coal for heating. The heterogeneity analysis shows that this policy has a greater impact on both low-urbanization cities and developed cities. Furthermore, we analyze price sensitivity and the costs and benefits of the policy, and find that the increase in natural gas prices significantly inhibits the policy effect, while the price of coal has no significant effect. In addition, the policy significantly reduces the incidence of lung disease among middle-aged and elderly people and leads to a significant increase in household heating costs in winter, which indicates that the clean heating policy has generated environmental and health benefits despite increasing government and household expenditures.

Top Gun: The Orbán Government’s Position on the War in Ukraine

Top Gun: The Orbán Government’s Position on the War in Ukraine

Introduction

Introduction

Gas price caps and electricity production effects in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War: modeling and new policy reforms

AbstractThe merit-order approach in the electricity market, which is in widespread use across the EU27 and the UK, has proven to be somewhat economically problematic in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The massively increased gas prices since summer 2022—in the context of Russian supply cuts to the EU—has led to an abnormally high electricity price. Using the merit order approach, the price of electricity increases enormously if, as is often the case, gas is the last type of energy still realized in power generation; this leads to artificial increases in returns for all other types of energy providers whose output is used in power generation. Gas price increases by Russia or Russian supply cuts to the EU can increase the price of electricity and also the rate of inflation, as well as depress real income. The electricity price shock can be countered by switching—temporarily—to a modified regulation of the electricity market for a few years with a gas price subsidy in the electricity market. In a macroeconomic analysis, we identify both the output losses and adverse distributional effects of a gas price hike and find that a gas price subsidy is superior in stabilizing output and employment compared to a transfer; it also at least partially addresses certain distributional issues by reducing windfall profits in the electricity market. The study advocates a combination of gas price subsidies only in the electricity market and targeted transfers to households to meet both efficiency and distributional targets. The macro-analysis findings presented herein should be considered carefully, as they could minimize the welfare losses in the EU and the UK. As regards the expansion of renewable energy-based electricity, it is shown herein that the cost-differential between gas-fired power stations and renewable electricity is critical—large cost differentials imply barriers for the expansion of electricity generation from renewables unless there is a price regulation of electricity. There is the potential for an inefficient adjustment path due to nonlinearities. With a proposed narrow gas price cap for the electricity market only, the associated initial deficit related to necessary subsidies is, of course, much smaller than in the case of a general gas price cap.

Forecasting the Consequences of the Cost of Mineral Fertilisers on the Development of the Corn Market in Ukraine Using AGMEMOD Models

In the past decade, from 2012 to 2021, Ukraine has doubled its maize production. The increase in gross corn yields is associated with the use of modern cultivation technologies by farmers, which increase the resistance of plants to adverse environmental factors and adjust the mineral nutrition of plants with regard to weather conditions. One of the most important components of such technologies is the use of mineral fertilisers, the optimal amount of application of which depends not only on the level of grain yield, but also on the efficiency of production and grain quality. However, the rapid increase in world natural gas prices during 2021 has created new challenges and threats for the further development of the grain market in Ukraine. After all, world prices for mineral fertilisers have increased by 110% since 2021, according to the World Bank. Under these conditions, a radical increase in the cost of mineral fertilisers threatens to ensure the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn in the domestic and foreign markets, which would eventually lead to higher food prices and deterioration in the level of food security in the country. This may negatively affect the gross yields and export potential of the grain industry. The purpose of the study is to assess the current state of supply and demand in the corn market in Ukraine and predict the consequences of the impact of changes in the cost of mineral fertilisers on the main parameters of its development according to probable scenarios, using the AGMEMOD econometric partial equilibrium model for the period up to 2025, which creates prerequisites for improving the efficiency of making and implementing management decisions and contributes to achieving the goals of national agrarian policy. The following methods were applied: monographic, abstract and logical, comparative analysis and expert assessments, tabular, statistical and economic, factor analysis, economic and mathematical modelling. The result of the study is an assessment of the current state and identification of the main factors influencing supply and demand in the corn market. Using multiple linear regression, the influence of the main factors on the yield of corn for grain in agricultural enterprises of Ukraine for 2001-2020 is determined. The dynamics of the balance of supply and demand in the corn grain market in Ukraine is analysed. The consequences of changes in the cost of mineral fertilisers on the main parameters of the corn market development in Ukraine are predicted according to probable scenarios using the AGMEMOD econometric partial equilibrium model for the period up to 2025. Based on the calculations made, it is proved that the high yield of corn and the favourable current price environment for grain will ensure a sufficient level of profitability of this grain crop. Methods for improving the mechanism of reducing the cost or compensation of expenses for the purchase of mineral fertilisers for commodity producers are proposed. Methodological and practical aspects of forecasting the consequences of changes in the cost of mineral fertilisers on the main parameters of corn market development in Ukraine using the AGMEMOD econometric partial equilibrium model for the period up to 2025 have been further developed. The proposed methodological approaches and findings can be used by state and industry management bodies in the development of priority areas for improving the effectiveness of the grain industry in Ukraine.

Cleaner technologies for sustainable development

Anthropogenic influence on global warming is now undeniably proven scientific fact. Ever-increasing efforts directed towards cleaner technologies are needed given the fact that COVID-19 caused disturbances in global supply chains, and a record increase in natural gas prices led to coal power production revitalization, nuclear renaissance and overall hampering of the energy transition. Cleaner technologies are becoming increasingly important on our path towards sustainable development. Present work builds on contributions from this special issue dedicated to the four Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Conferences held in 2020 by emphasizing the role of cleaner technologies and detecting research trends. By dissecting recent examples of cleaner technologies in environmental systems, water systems and industrial processes, circular economy principles are obeyed through the application of cleaner technologies, where the material and energy loops are closed through cross-sectoral integration. Digitalization and advanced control concepts are expected to accelerate that integration under the smart paradigm. As technology for decarbonization is maturing and becoming increasingly compatible with the market, the focus is placed more on the social dimension of sustainability.

Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada, and Europe

The popular belief worldwide is that the global financial sanctions unleashed on Russia, the seizure of assets and properties of the oligarch friends to President Putin for Russia’s current attack on Ukraine will cripple the Russian economy and hinder any further attack on Ukraine. This is logical reasoning, however, the impact of this crisis extends to the global economy. Thus, the purpose of this study is to review the economic impact of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war on key global economic actors, specifically, countries that have unleashed financial sanctions on Russia as punishment like the USA, Canada, UK, and EU. This study uses the Social Contract and the Interest Group Theories to explain the rationale behind this crisis from its origin. Evidence from reviewed literature shows that although the consequences of this crisis have had a fatal impact on Russia’s economy, the world economy has begun to feel the impact of this crisis. Inflation which is already ravaging most global economies is steadily rising due to the sharp increase in oil, natural gas, and food prices just a few days into this crisis. Experts expect a negative impact on household consumption, increase uncertainty, unpredictable stock swings, supply chain disruptions, bulging utility bills, decreased investment due to political risks, and economic growth impediments. It is therefore vital for policymakers worldwide to seek alternative means of survival if Russia decides to react by restricting its export of vital global commodities of which it is a significant export leader like oil, natural gas, wheat, neon, titanium, palladium, and ammonium nitrate.

Thermal/Cooling Energy on Local Energy Communities: A Critical Review

One of the most crucial factors for energy transition and the incorporation of renewable energy sources into the existing energy map is citizen engagement. Local energy communities (LECs), which are cooperative-based coalitions aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of the residential building sector, have received increasing attention in the past decade. This is because residential buildings account for almost half of the total energy consumed worldwide. A resounding 75% of it is used for thermal energy consumption, heating and cooling, cooking and bathing. However, the main focus of the literature worldwide is explicitly on electrical LECs, despite the fact that the significant increase in natural gas and oil prices, creates instability in the heating and cooling prices. The scope of this study is to provide an overview of the research field regarding Thermal LECs, using both a thorough literature review as well as bibliometric analysis (VOSviewer software), in order to validate the findings of the review. The results indicate a collective scarcity of literature in the field of thermal/cooling energy communities, despite their proven value to the energy transition. A significant lack of directives, research background and state initiatives in the context of LECs incorporating thermal/cooling energy production, storage and distribution systems, was also observed. Case studies and the applications of such systems are scarce in the available literature, while published studies need further feasibility assessments.

Shale gas resources across the world: A future source of energy

Unconventional natural gas resources are very important for ensuring energy security. It is a concern that conventional natural gas resources will be unable to meet growing supply requirements. This concern has prompted a scramble to secure long-term natural gas supplies. In a high oil and gas price environment, unconventional resources are viewed as important and economically attractive components of future natural gas supplies. Shale gas is natural gas produced from shale formations. Gas shales are organic-rich shale formations. Shale gas is a dry gas composed of methane. Various factors which have contributed to its rapid development are mainly advancements in horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and, perhaps most importantly, the rapid increase in natural gas prices in the last several years as a result of significant variation in supply and demand. India has a high potential for shale reserves. According to the available data, a comprehensive shale gas pilot project carried out in the Damodar Valley Basin has made an initial gasin- place estimate of 300 to 2,100 trillion cubic feet (TCF) in Indian shale gas basins, which is around 300 times higher than the Krishna Godavari Dhirubhai 6 (KG-D6) basin, by far the largest gas field in the country. In this paper, a brief review of shale gas reserves across the world and their government policies has been explained.

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THERMAL EFFICIENCY OF BUILDING EN-VELOPE OF MULTI-STOREY BUILDINGS WITH ACCOUNT OF INDIVIDUAL INSULATION

At present, the problem of general thermal modernization of building envelopes is given much attention both at the level of scientists and consumers. This is one of the effective ways to reduce natural gas consumption, reduce the negative impact on the environment, maintain and improve comfortable indoor conditions. Over the last decade, the population has rapidly begun to insulate their homes in order to raise the indoor air temperature to a comfortable level in the multi-storey residential sector. Due to insufficient attention of the authorities in the housing and communal sector, the lack of scientific research and widespread public awareness, there is a massive thermal insulation of building by residents of multi-store buildings within their own apartments. But the study of thermal processes that occur in individual thermal insulation of enclosing structures is currently not fully completed. Therefore, in the context of significant increases in gas and electricity prices, this problem is relevant.
 In the study was carried out mathematical modeling of a fragment of a partially insulated wall of an enclosing structure with determination of heat flux by solving a three-dimensional differential equation of thermal conductivity with boundary conditions of II, III and IV kind and distribution of characteristics of building structures and insulation. These results can be used in the analysis of the efficiency of insulation of the building taking into account the fragmentary insulation and of comparison with systemic thermal modernization.
 As a result of modeling, the three-dimensional temperature fields of wall surfaces, are determined, there are additional heat fluxes (thermal bridges), which are not considered in the simplified one-dimensional calculation. In one-dimensional calculation, the heat flux from the wall is reduced by 2.43 times during insulation. Taking into account the total heat flow from the side surfaces near the window (thermal bridges) and system insulation - by 1.75 times. With fragmentary insulation and considering the total heat flux from the side surfaces near the window - by 1.6 times.
 The next stage of calculations is the determination of the actual air temperatures in the premises of a multi-storey building considering the actual condition of enclosing structures and heating systems, heaters, mode parameters of the coolant and outdoor air parameters. The methods and means of this analysis can take into account the final data of heat loss adjustment after the mathematical modeling presented in this paper. In consequence, the results will be taken into account in the projects of thermal modernization of buildings, reconstruction of heating systems, rational placement of sources, selection of equipment and regulation of devices.